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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 1, No. 17, November 11, 2002

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal




STATISTICAL REVIEW

Arms Seizures in India's Northeast, 1991-2002

 
Assam
Nagaland
Tripura
Manipur
Meghalaya
Mizoram
Arunachal Pradesh
Total
1991
212
3
85
22
0
0
2
324
1992
444
19
86
49
0
0
10
608
1993
226
16
59
164
5
0
5
475
1994
270
28
52
135
0
124
0
609
1995
95
95
251
154
1
65
2
663
1996
120
48
107
85
5
35
1
401
1997
124
50
95
211
14
4
2
500
1998
191
17
154
96
0
4
4
466
1999
168
16
76
67
22
5
8
362
2000
223
88
137
78
29
8
12
575
2001
287
107
95
74
18
32
22
635
2002*
229
130
61
75
49
15
19
578
Total
2589
617
1258
1210
143
292
87
6196
               *    Data till October 31
                     Computed from official and media sources.


ASSESSMENT

INDIA


J&K: Losing the War against Terrorist Financing?
Kanchan L
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

The United Nations Security Council Resolution 1373, proclaims: "…all States should prevent and suppress the financing of terrorism, as well as criminalize the wilful provision or collection of funds for such acts." India is a strong supporter of this resolution, and has long and loudly protested the regime of international tolerance (and occasional support) that has allowed front organisations of terrorist groups operating in India to mobilise funds in other parts of the world, and to transfer these through elaborate financial mechanisms, instrumentalities and intermediaries, to the final perpetrators of terror in the field. Ironically, within India, there appears to be little political will to destroy the financial support structures of terrorism. This was particularly in evidence in the announcement by the new People's Democratic Party (PDP) - Indian National Congress (INC) coalition in the terror afflicted State of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), headed by Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, that it would not implement the Prevention of Terrorism Act, 2002 (POTA) in the State. POTA is the only instrument that criminalizes the mobilisation and transfer of financial resources to terrorists in India.

International hawala (trust) transactions lie at the heart of the web of terrorist financing - as of a wide range of organised criminal and illegal business operations - and constitute a reliable option that almost leaves no paper trail, and escapes conventional detection mechanisms, even as it transfers large quantities of funds across the globe in a matter of hours.

India has among the weakest and most licentious regimes in the world for the control of financial crimes. Under the Foreign Exchange Management Act, 1999, hawala is only a civil offence and persons violating its provisions can be penalised with fine up to three times the amount detected in a contravention. Prosecution under FEMA is complex, as foreign exchange violations, unlike other crimes enumerated under purview of the Criminal Procedure Code (CrPC), do not leave a trail of evidence, especially in hawala cases. Evidence collected is more often than not inadmissible under the prevailing legal system; inordinate delays in prosecution (the litigation process often takes decades before a final determination) lead to disappearance of material witnesses as also the tampering of evidence; in the rare case of eventual conviction, the penalties applied seldom explore even the available upper limit under the law.

Section 22 of POTA was intended to provide for a harsher process and penalties in cases of fund raising for a terrorist organisation. Such activities are treated as a criminal offence and a person found guilty under this Section is liable, on conviction, to imprisonment for a term of up to 14 years, or fine or both. This gave teeth to enforcement agencies charged with meeting the mounting challenge of terrorism, though the task is still far from simple: investigators have to prove that the money secured through hawala routes did actually finance or was used in a particular terrorist incident or operation. Hawala conduits and certain secessionist leaders in J&K have in the recent past escaped prosecution as a result of the problems of demonstrating such 'end use'.

Nevertheless, there have been a substantial number of recoveries and arrests in such transactions in J&K in the post-9/11 period. On December 6, 2001, the arrest of Abdul Rashid Lone, 'group commander' of the Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM) in the Baramulla area, led to recovery of Rs. Four million. On the same day, Abdul Rehman Sofi alias Rehman Lala and Mohammed Shabban Khan were arrested in Delhi returning from a meeting with HM chief Syed Salahuddin in Pakistan. Their confessions led to the recovery of Rs. 1.5 million received through hawala for distribution to the HM, Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM). On December 13, 2001, the killing of Nazir Ahmad Yattoo, alias Shakir Ghaznavi, HM 'divisional commander' (who was also looking after the distribution of finances), in an encounter with security forces at Pattan in Baramulla district, was followed by the recovery of Rs. 3.2 million. On January 14, 2002, the arrest of four Kashmiris linked to the LeT at Delhi led to the recovery of Rs. 3.49 million, which they had received through hawala on behalf of the South Kashmir Valley 'commander' of the Lashkar. The four, according to official sources, had arrived at the capital with plans to cause explosions at crowded places and disrupt normal life in the run-up to the Republic Day Parade on January 26. Another Rs. 460,000 was recovered from a Delhi-based Hawala operator who had provided the money to the Lashkar activists.

On March 24, 2002, the arrest of Shamima Khan, a Srinagar-based Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) activist, at Kud on the Jammu-Srinagar national highway was followed by recovery of Rs. 4.8 million meant for Yasin Malik, Chairman of the JKLF. Khan revealed during interrogation that she had received the money from a Hurriyat activist, Altaf Qadiri, at a hotel in the Bagh Bazaar area of Kathmandu in Nepal. Subsequently, the arrest on May 22, 2002, of Imtiyaz Ahmed Bazaz, a Srinagar-based journalist, led to the unravelling of an elaborate hawala network. Bazaz is reported to have worked as a conduit for the flow of finances from the London-based physicist Dr. Ayub Thokar, President of the World Kashmir Freedom Movement, to Asiya Indrabi, chief of Dukhtaraan-e-Millat (DeM) and Syed Ali Shah Geelani, a former chairman of the secessionist All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC). Consequently, Geelani was arrested on June 9 under POTA and shifted to the Ranchi central Jail in Jharkhand State, on charges of receiving money from Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) through hawala channels and later distributing the same to different terrorist groups, including the HM. Bazaz is reported to have confessed that HM chief Salahuddin, had been sending money to his local 'commanders' through Thokar and Geelani. Moreover, as Indirabi's husband Qasim Faktu was 'financial chief' of Jamiat-ul-Mujahideen (JuM), she also received money from Thokar through Bazaz to provide finances to JuM as well as DeM.

While action against Thokar and his London charity, Mercy International, has been initiated at the highest level by the British Government, the recipients of many such hawala transactions traced to Thokar are slated to go free and unpunished, courtesy the Mufti government's unwillingness to allow prosecutions under POTA, the only available statute that could bring them to book. Latest reports from the State indicate that the Mufti regime is contemplating the release of Geelani and Yasin Malik. Such action could only sustain and strengthen the increasingly invisible sources of the finance of terrorism.

The convergence of invisible transfers and the secessionist terrorist movement in J&K is discernible in the fact that the APHC, according to official estimates, spends approximately Rs. 15 to 20 million per month on its various organisational expenses. It is not a registered organisation and does not file any income tax returns. Furthermore, there is no local fund collection by the Hurriyat, and the predominant proportion of the APHC's funding can either directly or indirectly be traced to the ISI. Individual constituents of the APHC also independently secure funds through sister organisations in Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK), such as the Jamaat-e-Islami, Muslim Conference, Jamiat Ahle Hadis, People's League, etc. The individual constituents also get funds through expatriate Kashmiri organizations like Thokar's World Kashmir Freedom Movement, Nazir Qureshi's World Assembly of Muslim Youth in Saudi Arabia, etc. The JKLF, an important Hurriyat constituent, receives funds through its branches in a few countries, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, USA and UK. Income Tax (IT) Department investigations into Geelani's transactions have revealed that the monthly personal expenditure at his residence was more than Rs 150,000 against his declared annual income of Rs 17,100. IT returns filed by Geelani indicate that he was getting Rs 7,100 as pension for being a former member of the State Legislative Assembly and Rs 10,000 as agriculture income, which works out to less than Rs 1,500 per month.

The intricate hawala network, according to official estimates, profits every conceivable terrorist and secessionist group in the State. Indeed, senior police officials claim that militancy in the State has emerged as a highly lucrative 'industry' for several thousand families. Apart from the major groups, cadres of a number of lesser known organisations that have mushroomed in the extremist milieu that is J&K today, have also cornered shares in the substantial illicit financial flows. Thus, Yaqoob Vakil who was arrested on June 20, 2002, confessed to having provided finances (Rs. 1.5 million during 2001 and Rs. 2.0 million in 2002) to Valley-based Al Umar Mujahideen cadres at the behest of the outfit's chief, Mushtaq Ahmed Zargar, one of the three terrorists released to end the seven-day hijacking of the Indian airlines aircraft in Kandahar (southern Afghanistan) in December 1999. On June 29, 2002, security agencies neutralized a Tehrik-ul-Mujahideen channel, operating through Bashir Ahmed Sofi, Inayat Ali, and Mehraj-ud-Din Bhat, through which Rs. 10 million crore had been transferred to the Tehrik. Yet another Tehrik channel came to light with the arrest on July 22, 2002, of Shaukat Ahmed Shah, chief of Jamaat-Ahle-Hadis, J&K, and an ideologue of the Tehrik-ul-Mujahideen, on charges of routing funds to the tune of Rs. 4.0 million to the terrorist group. On August 2, 2002, Abdul Rashid Bhat was arrested with a consignment of Rs. 1.0 million while attempting to pass funds on to the Al Badr group (he had earlier channelised two transactions worth Rs. 800,000).

Many J&K-based doctors, engineers, technicians and certain business houses working in the Gulf and engaged in the provision of various services, or export of goods, such as carpets and handicrafts, have diverted funds through hawala operators to finance militants and secessionist leaders. Among one of the currently popular modes of hawala transfer is the movement of money through small-scale businessmen, such as shawl vendors. Although individual amounts involved in these transactions are small, very large numbers of such transactions result in transfers of great magnitude.

The ease with which transfers take place is visible, not only in the free availability of resources to all terrorist groups operating in J&K and other parts of the country, but also in the movement of such funds into the bank accounts of terrorists like the 9/11 hijacker, Mohammed Atta through JeM terrorist Omar Sheikh, with no paper evidence left behind. The arrest of Aftab Ansari alias Farhan Malik, a Dubai-based Mafiosi, for his role in the January 22, 2002, terrorist attack on the American Centre in Kolkata revealed that he had masterminded the abduction of Kolkata-based businessman Parthapratim Roy Burman and extracted a ransom of $815,000 via Dubai through hawala. Omar Sheikh had reportedly wired $100,000 to Mohammed Atta out of this money.

The largest flow of money towards terrorist groups is through hawala transactions routed through the Gulf region. The scenario has been rather dismal for Indian enforcement agencies vis-à-vis Dubai, the hub of the hawala racket, along with Pakistan. Lack of laws that explicitly prohibit hawala, and the fact that Dubai is a free trade zone, have not only led to complexities in curbing the practice, but also to a very low priority ascribed to such activities by the enforcement agencies in that country. A substantial proportion of finances for Islamist terrorist groups active in J&K and elsewhere, is also routed through the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi. The other routes of money transfer are through Nepal and Bangladesh, as also through infiltrating groups directly crossing the Line of Control (LoC) and the International Border from Pakistan.

Confronting this intricate web which provides terrorist operations across the world with the wherewithal to act, and which is substantially supported by both organised crime networks and by a number of state sponsors of terrorism, as well as by several state agencies in countries that are sympathetic to the Islamist extremist cause, is an enormous challenge. This is the case even where an efficient legislative, investigative and judicial mechanism is in place. Where the legitimacy of every legal instrument to bring the problem under control is itself undermined by the political executive - as is the present case in J&K - and where the judicial process is marked, not only by extraordinary sluggishness, but by frequent and active hostility against the investigative and prosecuting agencies, the prospects of defeating terrorism and re-establishing the rule of law are minimal.




ASSESSMENT

INDIA

Running Guns in India's Northeast
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Acting Director, Institute for Conflict Management Database & Documentation Centre, Guwahati.

On September 21, 2002 security forces operating in the upper Assam district of Tinsukia recovered 31 AK-56 rifles from a suspected United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) hideout. A few days later, in a series of raids between September 28 and 30, a large quantity of arms and ammunition belonging to the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) were recovered near Khonsa in the State of Arunachal Pradesh. The cache included RPG propellers, mortars, SLRs and substantial quantities of ammunition. On October 24, the police in Jorhat seized some 600 detonators on the Nagnimora - bound passend\ger train that originated in Nagaland. The problem is rapidly extending into areas that were largely peaceful in the past, and in one of the largest ever seizures of ammunition in the State of Meghalaya, police on November 1, 2002, destroyed a Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC) hideout at Khlaw Roman in Mawlai Nongpdeng and recovered 460 M-16 live shells, 169 AK-47 bullets, two 7.62 SLRs and two high-explosive hand grenades, along with some other cartridges. Incidents like these leave behind a combined sense of relief and trepidation: each such recovery is another counter-insurgency success story, but it points towards the length of the road that needs to be traversed before India's Northeast can be salvaged from the menace of small arms, and the spiral of violence they support and provoke.

For the insurgents in the region seeking sufficiency in arms supplies, it has been a slow and steady growth to perfection. The Naga insurgency, considered to be the mother of all insurgencies in the Northeast, initially managed with the assistance of their counterparts in neighbouring Myanmar, until the Southeast Asian illegal arms bazaars unveiled itself before their eyes towards the late 1980s. The underground markets in Thailand and Myanmar (then Burma) offer abundant supplies of AK series rifles, RPGs and an array of other sophisticated small arms and explosives. In its new avatar, the NSCN-IM not only used these bazaars for its own perpetuation, but also introduced new players in the arena, such as the ULFA in Assam, to the world of the arms dealer. Soon, the ULFA was not only surfing the Southeast Asian bazaars but also ventured into deals with European players. The ability of the insurgent groups in the Northeast to engage the Indian state in protracted little wars is substantially the result of the easy access to these tools of terror.

Ironically, there has been little commensurate growth in terms of access to comparable weapons among the police forces in the region. As the Annual Report of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), 2001, noted, "the condition of police forces in the North Eastern States is quite poor. Many of the militant groups have far more modern arms and equipment than the State Police." There is little evidence of any dramatic transformation in the circumstances since this observation was made, and, in the absence of the Army and para-military forces - Forces modelled on a brawnier archetype with a better range of weapons - the police in the various States of the region retain very limited capacities to engage with the terrorists.

A September 2002 report on the State of Meghalaya, for instance, revealed that the Police in the district of South Garo Hills - the smallest among the State's seven districts, but spread over 1,850 square kilometres - have access to only 3 AK rifles and 2 Carbines. This, in spite of the fact that the district is not only a hotbed of a local insurgency led by the Achik National Volunteers Council (ANVC), but also serves as a key transit route for groups like the ULFA and the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), which operate in neighbouring Assam, from and to their safe havens in Bangladesh.

Official estimates of the quantity of weapons available to the insurgents vary, and are necessarily approximations. However, if seizures are the proverbial 'tip of the iceberg', the region is awash in arms. A total of 6196 weapons have been seized in the period between 1991-2002 (Table). A senior officer of the Border Security Force (BSF) in the State of Manipur observes: "security force personnel operating in Manipur are up against 6,770 cadres of 12 terrorist outfits armed with 3750 numbers of sophisticated weapons. The People's Liberation Army (PLA), with a cadre-strength of 2,000 has 700 weapons; and the United National Liberation Front (UNLF) with 1,500 cadres has 800 weapons." Evidently, not only is access to weapons a relatively simple affair, but the time lag between the origin of an insurgent group and its graduation into a full-scale armed guerrilla group has become awfully short. Most of the insurgent groups operating in the Northeast secure very rapid access to sophisticated small arms, often through the mediation of the larger established militant organisations.

The availability of huge numbers of arms and ammunition with the insurgents also needs to be analysed against the background of the growing networking among the terrorist groups and also the uninhibited extortion set-up that they administer with impunity. ULFA's newfound association with the Manipuri group, the United National Liberation Front (UNLF), is one such marriage of convenience. Linkages between the ULFA, the Kamatapur Liberation Organisation (KLO), the NDFB, the ANVC, the NSCN-K and the All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF) have, at least in part, emerged as facilitators of successful gunrunning across the NE region. The Indian state is, consequently, pitted against a confederacy of insurgent groups with a vast and assured supply of sophisticated firearms.

The easy availability of such weapons is sourced primarily in Southeast Asia. Even a decade and a half after the cessation of hostilities in Cambodia, Southeast Asia remains an unending arms dump of the arms released from that conflict, and these cater to the ambitions of every malcontent in the region. Cox's Bazaar, a completely unmonitored port in Bangladesh, has emerged as a major transit centre for the supply of illegal arms and ammunition, not only feeding criminal and extremist elements in that country, but also the medley of insurgent outfits in the India's northeast. Most of these arms and ammunition passing through this port originate from countries like Cambodia, and are routed through southern Thailand on tiny high-speed boats. The frequency of such delivery is also a matter of concern. In the past year alone, two major consignments are known to have found their way to ULFA's armoury alone. Intelligence sources suggest that another such delivery reached the NSCN-IM cadres in the month of December 2001. In the latter case, the contraband safari started from the Gulf of Thailand and, through multiple modes of transport, including small steamers as well as porters, reached the NSCN-IM's bastions in Nagaland.

It is true that the range of weapons available with the insurgents in the northeast is yet to reach the level of sophistication of their counterparts in other theatres of conflict, particularly Jammu & Kashmir. If the recovery of weapons by the security forces is any indication, the AK series of rifles still constitute just a small fraction of the total arms seized. Over the last five years, recoveries in Assam are mostly in the range of pistols, revolvers, rifles and other unspecified guns. The AK series rifles constitute less than six per cent of the total number of seized weapons.

This, however, gives little scope for complacence. There have been occasions where the militants have used an eclectic mix of small arms and explosives to execute major operations and the fatalities have remained high for nearly two decades. Thus, in a neatly planned ambush on May 16, 1996, ULFA with the assistance from the People Liberation Army (PLA), a Manipuri group, and the NSCN-IM, used weapons including 9 mm pistols, AK-56 rifles and rocket launchers to eliminate the Superintendent of Police of Tinsukia district in Assam. And on January 27, 2002, suspected ULFA terrorists killed Kamrup district Deputy Superintendent of Police Devajit Pathak and his driver, using a sophisticated Improvised Explosive Device (IED) on the Boko-Nalapara Road near the Nalapara village.

The impact of the easy availability of such a range of small arms and explosives is that most of these extremist groupings have been able to continue with their unrestrained extortions over wide geographical areas. Insurgents have not only been able to kill with impunity (403 deaths have already been reported from the NE region this year), but have also usurped the political space in States like Manipur.

There is little prospect of curbing this liberal flow of arms in the foreseeable future in the absence of an international mechanism to impose accountability on the sources of supply and distribution. Regrettably, efforts to curb, monitor, or account for, the international production, stockpiling and diffusion of small arms have always been stonewalled by the major armament producing nations. Measures to account for the immense stockpiles that were transferred into the Asian region in the many 'little wars' of the Cold War era have also seldom gone beyond an elaborate charade, and the sheer volume of weapons floating about in the region becomes a primary source of escalation and transformation of social tensions into armed conflict. Within this context, the efforts of state agencies, within individual victim nations, to secure some degree of control through border management and counter-insurgency operations, are at best fire-fighting measures with limited possibilities of success. This is particularly true in the vitiated atmosphere in the South Asian region, where several states and their intelligence agencies actively support subversion, extremism and terror in neighbouring countries.

NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major conflicts in South Asia
November 4-10, 2002

 
Security Force Personnel
Civilian
Terrorist
Total
INDIA
13
18
28
59
Assam
0
0
4
4
Bihar
0
2
0
2
Jammu & Kashmir
10
12
24
46
Manipur
3
2
0
5
Tripura
0
2
0
2
NEPAL
0
6
7
13
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


INDIA

Al Qaeda, ISI activities in Bangladesh a matter of concern, says Deputy Premier Advani: Deputy Prime Minister L K Advani, said on November 7, 2002, that the reported activities of Pakistan's external intelligence agency, Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), and of the Al-Qaeda in Bangladesh were a matter of serious concern. According to him, "after the change of government in Bangladesh, there has been an increase in the activities of the Al-Qaeda and ISI there." He further said Bangladesh's support to terrorists was "covert" and "all insurgent groups of North-East are getting refuge there." Advani also said that, while the international community has recognised the Al-Qaeda and the Taliban as fountainheads of terrorism, they were yet to acknowledge Pakistan's ISI as among the major sources of terrorism. Hindustan Times, November 8, 2002.

ASEAN countries to cooperate with India to combat terrorism: India and countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), on November 5, 2002, decided to develop 'concerted programmes' for co-operation in combating international terrorism. A joint statement issued after the first ever summit of India and the 10-member ASEAN grouping in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, said that India and ASEAN leaders have agreed on developing a "concrete programme of cooperation" on terrorism, inter-linkages among trans-national crimes, trafficking of illegal drugs, sea piracy, trafficking in children and women, arms smuggling, money laundering and economic and cyber crimes. The Hindu, November 6, 2002.


PAKISTAN

Ummah Tamir-e-Nau among nine groups in US terrorism blacklist for visas: The US State Department said on November 8, 2002, that it has added nine groups suspected of terrorist links to a visa blacklist that will keep their members or affiliates out of the country. Among the newly named entities is the Pakistan-based Ummah Tamir-e-Nau (UTN), an organisation whose chief Dr. Sultan Bashiruddin Mahmood, former Director General of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, was arrested on October 23, 2001, in Islamabad, along with his associate Abdul Majeed (arrested in Lahore) for their alleged links to the Al Qaeda. The other groups are: Al Taqwa Trade, Property and Industry Company, Bank Al Taqwa, Nada Management Organization, Youssef M. Nada and Company Gesellschaft MBH, the Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF), the Ulster Defense Association, the Afghan Support Committee and the Revival of Islamic Heritage Society. Jang, November 9, 2002.

Three Pakistanis arrested in USA for attempt to sell Stinger missiles to Al Qaeda: Three Pakistani men have been arrested in California for attempting to supply US-made Stinger missiles to the Al Qaeda terrorist network, US Attorney General John Ashcroft said on November 6, 2002. Ashcroft said the three were trafficking 600 kilos of heroin and five tonnes of hashish to purchase the shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles. "Three individuals have been indicted for conspiring to trade heroin for anti-aircraft missiles which they said they intended to sell to Al-Qaeda forces in Afghanistan," said Ashcroft. Daily Times, November 7, 2002.

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that will bring you regular data, assessments and news brief on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

 

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

Publisher
K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni



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