| |
SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 15, No. 40, April 3, 2017
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
|
Kurram
Agency: Sectarian Bloodshed
Tushar
Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
At least 24 persons were killed
and another 100 injured in a suicide attack on an Imambargah
(Shia place of worship) in the Noor market area of Parachinar
town in the Kurram Agency of the Federally Administered
Tribal Areas (FATA) on March 31, 2017. The explosion took
place as people gathered for Friday prayers near the women´s
entrance of Imambargah. A witness stated that security personnel
at the Imambargah were checking devotees when an unidentified
person parked a car next to the building, which then exploded.
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
faction Jama’at-ul-Ahrar (JuA) claimed responsibility for
the attack. The attack was part of TTP’s "Operation
Ghazi" and Shias were the targets, according to the
outfit’s statement to the media.
On January
21, 2017, 25 persons were killed and more than 87 injured
in a bomb explosion at the Sabzi Mandi (vegetable market)
area, again in Parachinar town, in the morning when the
market was crowded with retailers buying fruits and vegetables.
In a text message sent to journalists, the al-Alami (International)
faction of Lashkar-i-Jhangvi (LeJ)
claimed that it, along with the TTP splinter Shehryar
Mehsud group, had carried out the attack. In a separate
statement, the spokesman for the TTP, Mohammad Khurassani,
declared, “A well-trained fighter, Saifullah alias
Bilal, carried out a suicide attack in Parachinar… Saifullah
attacked headquarters of enemies of Islam who are involved
in extrajudicial killing of our suppressed associates.
He avenged murders of Malik Ishaq, Noor ul Amin, Asif
Chhoto and many other associates, who were killed in fake
police encounters.”
Earlier,
on December 13, 2015, a similar blast in a makeshift market
in Parachinar had killed 25 people and injured 62. Two
militant groups, LeJ Al-Alami and Ansarul Mujahideen (based
in South Waziristan Agency) claimed responsibility for
the attack, with one of them saying the target was the
Shia community. A statement released to a foreign media
channel and attributed to the spokesman for the Jhangvi
group, Ali bin Sufian, declared that the attack had been
carried out against the Shia elements who were supporting
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the Iranian government,
adding, “We warn ... parents that if they don’t stop their
children from ongoing (sic) conflict in Syria they should
remain prepared for more such attacks.”
Complicating
issues, the Federal Government put an unknown group named
‘Ansar-ul-Hussain’ on the National Counter Terrorism Authority
(NACTA) ban list of terrorist outfit on December 30, 2016,
for its alleged involvement in recruiting Shia youth from
Kurram and adjacent areas to fight the Islamic State (IS,
also Daesh). However, NACTA officials declined to comment
Ansar-ul-Hussain’s involvement in any specific activities
or on the reasons behind its proscription. Muhammad Aamir
Rana, a security analyst and director of the Islamabad-based
Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies (PIPS) claimed that
Ansar-ul-Hussain was not involved in any terrorist activities
in Pakistan, but a group of some people with this name
was working in areas of Parachinar as well as the Orakzai
Agency of FATA and the Kohat District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
(KP), to recruit Shia youth to fight Daesh.
The Kurram
Agency, long known for sectarian violence, has seen a
definite decline in such incidents in recent years, However,
Shia dominated Parachinar in the Upper Kurram Agency remains
a principal target for Sunni sectarian terrorist formations.
Kurram comprises three sub-divisions: Upper, Central and
Lower Kurram. Some 58 per cent of its population is Sunni,
and 42 per cent Shia (according to the 1998 Census). The
majority of Shias live in Upper Kurram, while Sunnis dominate
Lower and Central Kurram. The present cycle of escalation
started when three people were killed and 13 were injured
in an attack on a Shia Imambargah in the morning of April
6, 2007. Clashes in Kurram from November 2007 to 2010
had left over 3,000 people dead, while thousands of families
were forced to flee their homes.
Unlike
other tribal agencies of FATA, the dynamics in Kurram
are different because of the sectarian divide and the
geo-strategic location of the Agency. Kurram is surrounded
by Afghanistan from three sides and has remained in turmoil
since 1980, after the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan.
Thrust into Afghanistan on three sides, the Kurram Agency
has always been of critical importance for Pakistan. It
shares the major portion of its borders with the troubled
Logar, Paktia, Khost and Nangarhar Provinces of Afghanistan.
The al Qaeda and Taliban infested Tora Bora Mountain range
in the Nangarhar Province of Afghanistan shares its boundaries
with the Kurram Agency. In the north-east, Kurram abuts
the Khyber Agency; the the Orakzai Agency lies to its
east; the Hangu District of KP is on its south-east; and
the North Waziristan Agency lies south. The Kurram Agency
connects the tribal areas of Pakistan to Afghanistan through
lower, central and upper Kurram. Crucially, the Thal-Parachinar
route is the shortest route to Kabul.
Apart from
the recent suicide attacks, the broad trend of decline
in sectarian incidents has given some relief to locals.
This has, however, come at the cost of a simultaneous
increase in terrorist and militant activities from across
the Afghan border. While the security situation has witnessed
remarkable improvements, particularly after Army operations
in North Waziristan, Orakzai and Kurram’s adjacent areas
of KP, the presence of TTP and IS on the abutting Afghan
territory have created new threats for the Kurram Agency.
Member of National Assembly (MNA) Sajid Hussain Turi thus
observed that the people did not feel safe from the Afghanistan
side, as border posts were being attacked from Afghan
territory. For instance, on April 2, 2017, four missiles
were fired from across the Pak-Afghan border into Kurram
Agency. A spokesperson of the local administration stated
that the missiles were fired from Afghanistan's Paktia
province, and panicked the locals, though there was no
loss of life. Terrorist attacks from across the border
are a regular phenomenon, and some of the major incidents
include:
February
19, 2017: Eleven terrorists allegedly attempting to enter
Pakistan from Afghanistan were killed in a clash with
SFs in the Sapperkot and Para Chamkani area of Kurram
Agency. Two Kurram militia members were also injured in
the gun battle between SFs and the terrorists.
October
14, 2016: Two persons including a soldier sustained injuries
in a suicide attack on a border crossing at Kharlachi
in Kurram Agency. The suicide bomber was trying to enter
Pakistan from the Paktia province of Afghanistan through
the border crossing.
April 7,
2016: 18 terrorists were killed in a cross border attack
on a SF checkpost in the Mangora Sar area on the Pak-Afghan
border in Kurram Agency.
Due to
the persistent threat from Afghanistan, local authorities
have asked villagers residing along the border to set
up posts on the hilltops and to keep vigil during the
night to prevent any attack from the Paktia and Khost
Provinces. On April 3, 2016, the Assistant Political Agent
and the Commandant of the Kurram Militia met elders of
the Turi, Bangash and Mangal tribes near Parachinar, to
mobilise the tribal people against the threat. An elder
from Borki disclosed, “Officials say that IS and TTP’s
fighters were involved in attacks on the security posts.
People are not only keeping vigil during night, but elders
of Borki and Kherlachi have also provided four heavy machineguns
and ammunition to the paramilitary forces as a gesture
of support.”
However,
after some months, the Government launched a deweaopnisation
campaign in Kurram Agency on December 27, 2016, asking
the local tribal people to hand over weapons to the administration.
Local Brigade Commander Brigadier Malak Amir Mohammad
Khan asked tribal elders at a jirga in Parachinar
to voluntarily surrender their “heavy weapons” to the
political administration within 45 days, otherwise strict
action against violators of order would be taken. Brigadier
Khan added, “All the tribal areas had been cleansed of
terrorists and compliance of law is the collective responsibility
of every citizen.”
Tribal
elders in Parachinar, however, remained apprehensive,
as the recent history of violence against the tribes and
the fragile security situation in Afghanistan continued
to threaten security in the Agency. MNA Sajid Hussain
Turi thus observed, “The so-called Islamic State has headquarters
in our backyard (Nangarhar). Disarming Turi and Bangash
tribes in upper and lower parts of Kurram is very inappropriate.
Any action against tribes at this moment will create problems.”
On February 7, 2017, hundreds of pamphlets containing
threats were allegedly distributed by Daesh in the Kurram
Agency on the Pakistani side of the Durand Line, threatening
attacks in specific tribal areas. The Daesh pamphlet declared,
in the local language, Pashto, "We have achieved
our goals in Afghanistan and are now ready to confront
Shia renouncers in Pakistan's tribal areas."
Haji Faqir
Hussain, secretary of the Anjuman-e-Hussainia, the central
representative body of various Shia tribes in Kurram,
noted that the indifferent policies of successive Governments
over the past decades had forced the local population
to secure themselves against hostile elements within and
outside the Valley: “The administration can’t guarantee
our safety, keeping in view the harsh realities of recent
past. Disarming people at this moment is tantamount to
tying their hands and feet.”
As a result
of the recent surge in terrorist incidents across the
country, there has been a step up in the security arrangements
in sensitive areas of the Kurram Agency as well. Security
personnel in large numbers have been deputed at the Government
Offices, Mosques, Imambargahs, big shopping markets, hospitals,
and bus stands, to avoid the possibility of any mishap.
Troops have been deployed at all the exit and entry points,
including Parachinar, the headquarters of the Agency,
Sadda and Alizai, and barricades have been erected at
sensitive places in the Agency for checking. A majority
of roads leading to Government offices in the Agency have
been sealed. Despite the high security alert, the terrorists
have succeeded in executing attacks, putting a question
mark against the Government’s claims of having tamed terrorism
in the tribal areas.
|
Tripura:
Residual Friction
Giriraj
Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
In their
“eviction notice” sent on January 2, 2017, to media, the
Biswamohan Debbarma faction of the National Liberation
Front of Tripura (NLFT-BM),
along with Kamatapur Liberation Organisation (KLO)
and the People’s Democratic Council of Karbi-Longri (PDCK),
set March 31, 2017, as their deadline for Bengalis and
Hindi speakers to quit Tripura, parts of Assam and West
Bengal. The notice declared, “We strongly oppose heinous
killings by Indian Army and rehabilitation programme for
Bangladeshi Bengalis…. We hereby would like to notify
Indian citizens (Bengali and Hindi speaking people) to
quit Kamatapur (consisting parts of Assam and West Bengal),
Karbi-Longri (Karbi Anglong Hill District in Assam), and
Tripura.” The notice was signed by KLO ‘chairman’ Jiban
Singh Koch, NLFT-BM ‘organising secretary’ Sengphul Borok
and PDCK ‘chairman’ J.K. Lijang. The trio is reported
to be associated with the United Liberation Front of Western
South East Asia (UNLFWESEA), a consortium of Northeast
militant groups mentored by the Nationalist Socialist
Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K)
and the United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I).
These threats
notwithstanding, Tripura (along with Mizoram) remained
the most peaceful State in the entire Northeastern region
of India, in terms of insurgency-related fatalities. According
to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism
Portal (SATP), there were no such fatalities
in 2016, a trend largely consistent since 2013; though
2014 was an exception with four fatalities [two civilians
and two Security Force (SF) personnel]. At peak, 514 such
fatalities were recorded in 2000, including 453 civilians,
16 SF personnel and 45 militants. The Northeast region
as a whole registered 160 fatalities, including 61 civilians,
17 SF personals and 82 militants, in 2016.
Other indices
also confirm that there was further consolidation of normalcy
through 2016. Thus, according to SATP data, no extortion
or abduction incident was recorded through 2016. Five
persons had been abducted in three incidents in 2015.
As militant
activities declined on ground, no incident of arrest was
reported through 2016. Nine militants had been arrested
in 2015.
Meanwhile,
mounting pressure by SFs led to a spike in the surrender
of militants in the State. 27 militants, all from NLFT-BM,
surrendered in 2016, as compared to seven militants (also
from NLFT-BM) in 2015. In one major incident, 12 NLFT-BM
cadres accompanied by 19 family members, including eight
children, surrendered to the Tripura Police along with
their arms and ammunition on April 11, 2016.
Moreover,
the border management infrastructure is being made robust
in order to stop the ingress and outflow of militants
and illegal immigrants. In this regard, UMHA Joint Secretary
(Border Management) Susheel Kumar, during his visit to
the State, on June 24, 2016, disclosed, "By December
next year (2017), Tripura's 856 kilometers border with
Bangladesh will be completely fenced." He stated
that fencing along 775.26 kilometers had already been
completed, while 63.43 kilometers was presently being
fenced. Fencing along the remaining 17.31 kilometers “has
to be created on the zero line for which permission from
the Bangladesh government is required" and “all disputes
would be resolved to mutual satisfaction and the work
completed by December 2017.”
Insurgency
is under definite control. But there are lingering threats.
On January 4, 2017, Chief Minister Manik Sarkar observed,
“Till a few years back the problems created by the militants
has come down but still there is no room for self-complacency
because we are aware that still across the border in Bangladesh
a section of Tripura militants have its camp (sic). They
may not be in huge number but are adequately powerful
to harm us."
There are
also several issues which have the potential to derail
the progress towards further normalization.
One of
these issues relates to the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill
2016. The Indigenous Nationalist Party of Tripura (INPT)
along with two other tribal parties, the Indigenous People’s
Front of Tripura (IPFT) and National Conference of Tripura
(NCT), formed a joint forum named the All Tripura Indigenous
Regional Parties Forum (ATIRPFP) on January 15, 2017,
to oppose the Bill. Announcing the formation of the joint
forum, ‘convener’ N.C. Debbarma stated, “Three indigenous
political parties have formed the forum to safeguard and
protect the interests of the tribals in the State, who
form one third of the population. We are of the clear
opinion that the Bill is detrimental to the interest of
the indigenous people... Bangladeshi migrants through
this proposed law would be settled in eastern and northeastern
India depriving the original people of the region of basic
rights.” The Bill, introduced in the Lok Sabha
(lower House of Parliament) on July 19, 2016, and now
under the scrutiny of a parliamentary committee, seeks
to enable Hindus, apart from Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains,
Parsis and Christians, who have fled to India from Pakistan,
Afghanistan and Bangladesh without valid travel documents
or those whose valid documents have expired in recent
years, to acquire Indian citizenship through the process
of naturalization. In a clear demonstration that this
issue is potentially dangerous for the prevailing peace
in the State, during a 12-hour bandh (shutdown)
called by ATIRPFP in the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous
District Council (TTAADC) region on February 8, 2017,
at least 50 persons were injured in sporadic clashes.
Another
such issue is the demand for separate tribal Tipraland
State by the IPFT. Indeed, on August 23, 2016, at least
20 people were injured and 15 vehicles were set ablaze
in State capital Agartala, in ethnic clashes between indigenous
tribals and Bengalis, after a rally organized by IPFT
to mark its eighth ‘Tipraland’ Statehood Demand Day.
Meanwhile,
the third round of tripartite peace talks scheduled for
July 7, 2016, and involving State Government, Union Ministry
of Home Affairs (UMHA) and NLFT-BM, the lone active insurgent
group in the State, could not take place. According to
reports, Biswamohan Debbarma’s presence during the talks
had been sought by the State Government and the matter
had been communicated to the UMHA officials engaged in
the talks with three representatives of NLFT-BM – ‘foreign
secretary’ Utpal Debbarma, and ‘commanders’ Suron Debbarma
and Tapan Koloi. As the outfit failed to commit to Debbarma's
participation in the talks, the process stalled. In 2015,
two rounds of peace talks were held with NLFT-BM. During
the 2nd round, NLFT-BM delegates requested the presence
of former militant leader and INPT ‘president’ Bijoy Kumar
Hrangkhawal in the peace talks. According to an unnamed
senior Police official, privy to the matter, "the
State Government officers and representatives of the Home
Ministry did not agree to it and instead enquired about
Biswamohan Debbarma. The NLFT [BM] delegates could not
give any satisfactory reply."
The All
Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF),
which was the only other Tripura based active group earlier,
is now largely defunct. Its ‘chairman’ Ranjit Debbarma,
on May 18, 2016, had expressed his willingness to bring
his one time rival group, NLFT-BM, to the negotiating
table. No incident linked to ATTF was reported in 2016.
Another
outstanding issue is the repatriation of displaced Bru
(Reang) refugees housed in seven camps in Kanchanpur (North
Tripura District) to Mizoram, which has not made much
progress and has, in fact, reached a standstill. On February
21, 2017, the umbrella organisation of displaced Brus,
the Mizoram Bru Displace People's Forum (MBDPF), stated
that the Bru refugees had decided not to return to Mizoram
as the Mizoram Government has ‘refused’ to meet their
demands. The MBDPF said that a public meeting was held
at all the seven relief camps on February 14 and 15, 2017,
in which the refugees expressed their unwillingness to
return to Mizoram by raising their hands. The public meeting
was conducted as per the decision taken during the meeting
of Joint Monitoring Group (JMG) in Guwahati on February
12, 2017, in which the MBDPF was entrusted to submit the
public decision within three months. The JMG meeting,
comprising representatives of the Home Department of Mizoram
and Tripura and MBDPF, was inconclusive. MBDPF demands
include the allotment of at least five hectare land to
each repatriated Bru family, enhancement of the rehabilitation
package, provision of free ration for two years, INR
5,000 per month to be given to each family, and the Brus
be given the same status as the Kashmiri Pandits. Only
about 5,407 Brus out of the total of 32,876, have returned
to Mizoram thus far.
Peace in
Tripura was restored after the extraordinary success of
a prolonged Police-led counter
insurgency campaign, backed by rare
sagacity of the political executive of the State under
the leadership of Chief Minister Manik Sarkar. The residual
issues of tribal discontent arising out of relentless
demographic shifts need to be urgently addressed, both
to bring a better quality of life to the tribal population,
and to end the enduring friction between various population
segments in the State.
|
Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
March
27-April 2, 2017
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists/Insurgents
|
Total
|
BANGLADESH
|
|
Islamist Terrorism
|
4
|
1
|
8
|
13
|
BANGLADESH
(Total)
|
|
|
|
|
INDIA
|
|
Jammu and
Kashmir
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
Assam
|
0
|
0
|
5
|
5
|
Left-Wing
Extremism
|
|
Jharkhand
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Odisha
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
INDIA (Total)
|
3
|
1
|
6
|
10
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
FATA
|
24
|
0
|
3
|
27
|
Punjab
|
1
|
0
|
5
|
6
|
PAKISTAN
(Total)
|
|
|
|
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
|
| |