Bhutan Assessment 2007

Bhutan did not witness any significant terrorist activity during the year 2006, and is the only South Asian nation to have almost entirely escaped the shadow of terror. The decision it took in December 2003 to evict militant outfits from Bhutanese soil, including the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) operating in the neighbouring Indian State of Assam, and the North Bengal-based Kamtapur Liberation Organisation (KLO), continues to pay rich dividends for the mountain kingdom, although there are some indications that the ULFA may be resurfacing in the country.

Since its ouster, apprehension that the ULFA might try to secure its bases in Bhutan again have persisted. The January 12, 2006-incident in which ULFA militants attacked a Royal Bhutan Army (RBA) patrol near Gerwa village in the southern Samdrup Jongkhar District, killing a RBA guide, confirmed such apprehensions. Nine months earlier, in April 2005, the Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi had indicated that ULFA might have re-entered Bhutan. Intelligence reports in the month of August 2006 reinforced such fears, indicating that at least four new ULFA training camps were found along the India-Bhutan border in the Nalbari District of Assam. Another report indicated that ULFA senior cadre, Hira Sarania, may have been put in charge of camps in the Samdrup Jongkhar District of Bhutan. On October 24, 2006, a senior police official posted in a Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC)-administered District disclosed that ULFA militants were spotted in areas just across the border with Bhutan: "I will not say that they have established major camps in the jungles of Bhutan as yet, but their presence there has certainly been noticed."

Speaking on November 1, 2006, S. K. Sarkar, Additional Director General of Police (Intelligence) of West Bengal, stated that ULFA and the KLO were establishing camps in Bhutan and Nepal and were being helped by the Maoists of Nepal. Sarkar’s statement was further confirmed by Assam police chief D.N. Dutt on November 2, 2006, when he indicated that the ULFA was "using certain stretches of Bhutan for taking shelter." Further, the Special Branch of the Assam Police, on November 19, 2006, indicated that ULFA’s "7th Battalion" had established camps at Kawaimari near Deothang.

There has, however, been no official confirmation of ULFA’s presence from Bhutan. Jigme Tenzin, Third Secretary in the press division of the Bhutanese embassy in New Delhi, stated on November 2, 2006: "I would like to state for the record that since the removal of all 13 camps of the ULFA from Bhutan during the military operations conducted by the royal Bhutan army in 2003, there has been no presence of the ULFA or any other group inside Bhutan." Relations with India are primary in Bhutan’s foreign policy and, on November 25, 2006, Tsering Wangda, Joint Secretary of the Ministry of Home (Internal) and Cultural Affairs of Bhutan gave an assurance that it would not allow any insurgent group fighting against New Delhi's rule to operate from its soil. Wangda added, "Naturally, we will not allow, repeat, not allow any Indian insurgent to have camps inside Bhutan."

The unresolved issue of refugees of Nepalese origin (Ngolops) remains a problem for Bhutan. Over 105,000 Bhutanese refugees reside in seven camps in the eastern Districts of Nepal since the ethnic exodus that followed the implementation of Bhutan’s Citizenship Act of 1985 and the subsequent nation-wide Census of 1988. The Bhutan Government has tended to resist all repatriation because most of the refugees are of Nepali origin, and this is seen as creating a 'demographic imbalance' in some areas of the thinly-populated country, as well as a threat to the Monarchy. While growing international pressure has forced Bhutan to accept the idea of repatriation of some refugees, non-Bhutanese and Bhutanese with criminal and subversive records will certainly be excluded, accounting for a sizeable and potentially volatile chunk of the refugee population. Bhutan also fears that the repatriated groups may be 'infected' by the Nepalese Maoists, who have already tasted preliminary victory in their campaign to overthrow the monarchy in Nepal, and there are natural apprehensions that any significant repatriation from Nepal would include a significant representation of radical sympathizers who would bring the 'peoples' war' to Bhutan. Bhutanese Home Secretary, Dasho Penden Wangchuk, stated on September 23, 2006, that the growing nexus between people in the camps in eastern Nepal, the Maoists and Indian Left Wing Extremists would have far-reaching impact on the region’s security. Wangchuk noted: "It is a confirmed fact that there is today a growing nexus between Maoists and the people in the camps in eastern Nepal … We also have information confirming radical elements from the camps in Nepal having received armed training from the Maoists."

Close cooperation on counter-terrorism between India and Bhutan continued. On August 11, 2006, the Bhutanese Army Chief, Major General Batoo Tshering, and his Indian counterpart, General J. J. Singh, along with senior Indian and Bhutanese Commanders, held high level meetings in New Delhi to review the situation along the international border against the backdrop of reports that the ULFA was attempting to reactivate its training camps there. On September 27, media reports indicated that the Indian Government had decided to intensify surveillance along the 699-kilometre India-Bhutan border to prevent any possible movement across of ULFA, NDFB and KLO militants. Most significantly, on December 12, both India and Bhutan finalized the demarcation of their 699-kilometres border, 45 years after the process of settling the boundary began. India's ambassador to Bhutan, Sudhir Vyas, and the Kingdom's secretary for international boundaries, Dasho Pema Wangchuk, signed the border agreement.

The most significant event for Bhutan in 2006, however, was political. Druk Gyalpo (King) Jigme Singye Wangchuck, South Asia’s longest serving ruler, abdicated his throne and handed over his responsibilities as Monarch and Head of State to Crown Prince Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, who became the fifth King to rule Bhutan. The transition was formally announced on December 14, 2006, the 24^th day of the 10^th Bhutanese month. The King had earlier pledged to relinquish the throne when the Kingdom switched over to a Parliamentary form of Government in 2008.

Notwithstanding the visible tranquility that Bhutanese are used to, the new King has challenges ahead. Indian Intelligence sources indicate that at least four training camps are currently run along the India-Bhutan border, where ULFA cadres are receiving training from cadres of the Sri Lankan Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). This includes the training of suicide cadres, a point that is a matter of grave concern not only to the Assam Government, but to Bhutan as well. An incipient Maoist movement, closely linked to Indian and Nepali Maoists, is also a source of future dangers, and these will augment as the Maoists in Nepal consolidate their hold on Government. Great vigilance will, consequently, be necessary, if Bhutan is to continue to escape the epidemic of instability and violence that afflicts all its South Asian neighbours.

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