India’s troubled
Northeast continues to witness varying levels of insurgency related
violence, as well as tensions between various ethnic groups, with
troubles further compounded by external agencies and a proliferation
of new rebel formations. Nevertheless, insurgency-related fatalities
in the region have seen sustained and dramatic improvements, from
a recent peak of 1,051 in 2008, collapsing to 246 fatalities in
2011. Though 2012 saw a reversal of this trend, with 316 killed,
the region saw a significant improvement in 2013, with 252 killed.
A multiplicity of enduring insurgencies has weakened considerably,
either disintegrating or seeking peace through negotiated settlements
with the Government. However, the mushrooming of new militant
outfits and splinter groups in the region, the worst of which
is witnessed in Garo Hills of Meghalaya, continues to renew the
menace in the region.
Fatalities
in Militants Violence in India's Northeast 2005-2014*
Years
|
Civilians
|
SFs
|
Militants
|
Total
|
2005
|
334
|
69
|
314
|
717
|
2006
|
232
|
92
|
313
|
637
|
2007
|
457
|
68
|
511
|
1036
|
2008
|
404
|
40
|
607
|
1051
|
2009
|
270
|
40
|
542
|
852
|
2010
|
77
|
22
|
223
|
322
|
2011
|
79
|
35
|
132
|
246
|
2012
|
90
|
18
|
208
|
316
|
2013
|
95
|
21
|
136
|
252
|
2014
|
35
|
4
|
40
|
79
|
Total
|
2073
|
409
|
3026
|
5508
|
Source:
SATP, *Data till March 23, 2014
|
The two States
worst afflicted by insurgency in 2012, Nagaland and Manipur, recorded
dramatic declines in insurgency related fatalities. According
to the South Asia Terrorism Portal database,
Nagaland
dropped dramatically from 61 [six civilians and 55 militants]
in 2012 to just 32 [11 civilians and 21 militants] in 2013. Internecine
clashes within the State also declined from 43 incidents in 2012,
resulting in 53 persons killed and 23 injured, to 18 incidents
in 2013, resulting in 12 killed and 11 injured. 2012 had witnessed
intense factional killing between Nationalist Socialist Council
of Nagaland–Khaplang (NSCN-K)
and NSCN-Khole-Kitovi (NSCN-KK), which visibly slowed down in
2013. Factional killings amongst the Nagas had spiked after the formation
of NSCN-KK on June 7, 2011, and the Zeliangrong
United Front (ZUF), a Manipur based outfit,
on February 25, 2011. Further, seven incidents of fratricidal
clashes [resulting in nine killed and two injured] between Naga
militant groups were recorded outside Nagaland in 2013, as against
such 13 such incidents [resulting in 27 killed and 10 injured]
in 2012. Fatalities in Nagaland had registered an upward trend,
till they peaked at 145 in 2008, but fell drastically in 2009
and 2010, in the aftermath of the signing of the Covenant
of Reconciliation in mid-2009. However,
this emerging trend saw a reversal after the emergence of ZUF
and NSCN-KK in 2011. Nagaland faces fresh
challenges in 2014, carrying forward tensions
from the December 2013 incidents between the Rengma Nagas and
Karbis of Assam. 2014 has already recorded 11 fatalities, including
10 civilians and one militant.
In Manipur, according
to the SATP database, total fatalities, at 110 [25 civilians,
12 Security Forces-SFs, 73 militants] in 2012, reduced to just
half, at 55 in 2013 [21 civilians, six SFs and 28 militants killed
in 10 incidents]. 2013 recorded 76 incidents of bomb blast, in
which 24 people were killed and 103 were injured; 107 incidents
of explosion had been recorded in 2012, though the total fatalities
were nine, and 90 persons were injured. Of the 107 blasts in 2012,
Corcom (the Coordination Committee of six Valley-based groups)
was responsible for 33; 28 of the 76 incidents in 2013 were attributed
to CorCom. 2013 data also demonstrates the greater lethality of
bomb attacks, despite the reduction in incidence. Fratricidal
clashes between Naga militants also declined in frequency.
There were at least 10 clashes between the Zeliangrong United
Front (ZUF) – at times a combined force of ZUF and NSCN-K – and
the NSCN-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM),
which resulted in 25 fatalities in 2012. There were just seven
such incidents and nine fatalities through 2013. 2014 has already
recorded 10 fatalities [two civilians, three SFs and five militants].
The People's Liberation Army (PLA),
a member of Corcom, was involved in the three SF killings.
According to SATP,
101 persons, including 60 militants, 35 civilians and six Security
Force (SF) personnel, were killed in 71 incidents of killing through
2013 in Assam.
There were 91 killings in 2012, including 45 militants, 31 civilians
and 15 SF personnel, in 64 incidents of killing. This marginally
reversed a continuously declining trend since 2009, when fatalities
were 392 (158 in 2010, 94 in 2011). The current scale of violence
is far below its peak in 1998, when the State recorded 783 terrorism-related
fatalities. Ingti Kathar Songbijit faction of National democratic
Front of Bodoland (NDFB-IKS) emerged as the most lethal group
in the State, with a confirmed involvement in 19 fatal incidents,
resulting in 25 deaths; followed by Karbi People's Liberation
Tiger (KPLT),
involved in 11 incidents of killing, resulting in 16 fatalities.
The Anti-Talks faction of ULFA (ULFA-ATF), which rechristened
itself ULFA-Independent (ULFA-I) continued to maintain its strike
capability, and was involved in at least 12 killing incidents
resulting in 14 deaths. On March 16, 2014 [the party's 'Army Day'],
ULFA-I asked its members to re-strengthen the outfit, fearing
that certain members had a nexus with the SFs. At least eight
ULFA-I cadres, including its 'operational commander' Pramod Gogoi
alias Partha Pratim Asom, were executed on the instructions
of the ULFA-I's 'commander-in-chief', Paresh Baruah, for 'conspiring
with Police and Security Forces to engineer a mass surrender of
cadres over the past four months. Seven cadres were executed in
December, 2013, while they were trying to flee the Myanmar base
to surrender to police. 'Operational commander' Partha Pratim
Asom was executed on January 15, 2014 in Mon district of Nagaland.
The State has already recorded a total of 38 fatalities in 2014
[15 civilians, one SF, 22 militants]. NDFB-IKS was involved in
11 of the 14 civilians killed and in the killing of SF personnel.
Of the 22 militants killed, five were known to belong to NDFB-IKS,
three ULFA-I and three KPLT. Worryingly, on March 13, 2014, NDFB-IKS
released a video-clipping to announce the launch of an 'operation'
to assassinate State politicians, Director General of Police (DGP)
and Superintendents of Police (SPs). The video-clipping revealed
that NDFB-IKS has sent its 35-member "Iragdao Brigade"
to launch the "2nd Urailang Operation." Sources said
the militants have been asked to sacrifice their lives if need
be to accomplish the mission. A March 17, 2014, report observed
that, according to the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) the
NDFB has killed as many as 70 people in Assam during through 2010-14.
In January 2014, State Police Headquarters declared 15 members
of the NDFB-IKS, including its chief Songbijit Ingti Kathar (IK
Songbijit), as 'most wanted'. Assam Police said valuable information
leading to the arrest of these 15 NDFB-IKS militants would be
worth INR 9.5 million. In a significant development, 2,009 cadres
of the Dilip Nunisa faction of Dima Halam Daogah (DHD-N), surrendered en
masse on March 9, 2013. The outfit had signed a Memorandum
of Settlement [MoS] with the Government on October 8, 2012. In
another positive development, a six months long tripartite Suspension
of Operations (SoO) agreement was signed between the Ranjan
Daimary faction of NDFB (NDFB-RD), the Central Government and
the State Government, on November 29, 2013.
In Meghalaya,
according to the SATP database, insurgency related fatalities
increased from 48 in 2012, to 60 in 2013. After dramatic declines
between 2004 and 2008, there has been a continuous year on year
increase in fatalities in the State. Worryingly, SF fatalities
have spiked from just two in 2012 to nine in 2013. 2013 also recorded
six major incidents (each resulting in 3 or more fatalities) in
which 22 persons were killed [9 militants, 5 SF personnel and
8 civilians].Insurgent violence had declined after the signing
of a ceasefire agreement with Achik National Volunteer Council
(ANVC)
on July 23, 2004, but resurfaced again with the formation of the
Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA),
followed by the emergence of various new
and splinter groups. The GNLA continues to
be responsible for the largest proportion of violent activities
in the State. On January 5, 2013, a draft agreement was signed
between the ANVC and ANVC-B with the government. During 2013,
the State also saw several agitations relating to
demands relating to statehood and Inner Line Permit (ILP) arrangements.
2014 has already recorded 15 fatalities [six civilians and nine
militants].
In Arunachal Pradesh,
at least four militants [three from NSCN and one from ULFA-I)]
were killed in the State in three encounters through 2013. Three
militants [two from NSCN-K and one from NSCN-IM] were killed in
2012 in factional clashes between NSCN-IM and NSCN-K. Significantly,
there were no civilian or SF fatalities, and no factional killings,
in 2013. Worryingly, however, 2014 has already recorded five fatalities
in the State, with two civilians and three militants killed. Outgoing
Arunachal Pradesh Governor, General (Retired) J.J. Singh, on May
23, 2013, observed that the insurgency in the eastern Arunachal
Districts -Tirap, Changlang and Longding - could be solved only
after a permanent solution to the vexed Naga issue was reached.
The stabilisation
process in Tripura
gained further momentum through 2013, without a single terrorism-related
fatality through the year - a signal achievement secured for the
first time since 1992. 2012 had recorded two fatalities, both
militants, in two separate incidents. Significantly, at its peak
in 2004, the militancy had claimed as many as 514 lives, including
453 civilians, 45 militants and 16 SF personnel. Of all the factions
of the NLFT, Biswamohan Debbarma faction of National Liberation
Front of Tripura (NLFT-BM) alone remains active, though mounting
pressure by the SFs resulted in the surrender of 14 of its cadres
in 2013 alone. In a further setback, NLFT-BM 'Chief of Army Staff',
Pasaram Tripura alias Parshuram alias T.
Thomas alias Wathak (51) surrendered in Agartala
in West Tripura District on January 10, 2014. Further, NLFT-BM
'second-in-command' Panther Debbarma alias Pandit surrendered
before the Police along with his wife and an associate at Kanchanpur
under North Tripura District on March 13, 2014, after they escaped
from the NLFT’s base camp in the Jupui area of the Chittagong
Hill Tracts (CHT) in Bangladesh. Debbarma disclosed that NLFT
had few weapons and the outfit had been marginalised due to continuous
surrenders and desertions among members over the past three years.
In Mizoram,
unresolved challenges including talks between the Mizoram Government
and the insurgent Hmar People's Convention - Democracy (HPC-D),
as well as the unfinished repatriation of Bru (Reang) refugees
from neighbouring Tripura were further compounded by occasional
activities of militant groups from adjoining States engaging in
abduction and arms smuggling. Despite an enduring peace after
an agonizing twenty years of insurgency, a variety of issues,
principally the result of ethnic tensions and overflows of insurgency
from the neighbourhood, continue to rankle in Mizoram.
The Northeast had
also witnessed several agitations demanding the creation of new
States through 2013, particularly following the resolution of
the Congress Working Committee (CWC), on July 30, 2013, to sanction
statehood to Telengana by bifurcating Andhra Pradesh in South
India. In Assam, statehood demands include agitations by the Bodos
for Bodoland; Koch-Rajbongshis for Kamatapur; Karbis and the Dimasas
for an autonomous or full-fledged State. In Meghalaya, the Garos
renewed their stir for Garoland; and tribals in Tripura, under
the banner of the Indigenous People's Front of Tripura (IPFT),
demanded a separate state. In Manipur, the Kuki State Demand Committee
(KSDC) revived its demand for a ‘Kuki State’, even as the Eastern
Naga Peoples Organization (ENPO) in Nagaland resumed its demands
for a ‘Frontier Nagaland’ State.
Other concerns
also persisted. According to April 18, 2013 report, the Communist
Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist)
was planning to strengthen its base in the Northeast. A six page
letter sent to 13 States, by the UMHA on CPI-Maoist efforts to
expand to new areas, noted that the Maoists planned to strengthen
their Eastern Regional Bureau: "The North-East is another
region where the CPI (Maoist) is trying to spread its wings …
with the objectives that include strengthening the outfit's Eastern
Regional Bureau, procurement of arms/ammunition/communication
equipment." The Maoist efforts to increase bases in the North
East region are now directly supervised by Prashant Bose, Politburo
Member and 'second in command' of the CPI-Maoist.
In November 2013
UMHA declared Assam a Maoist afflicted State, with the Joint Secretary
(Northeast) Shambhu Singh noting that a review of law and order
indicated that "Maoist presence in Assam and border areas
of Arunachal Pradesh has been noticed and hence their activities
were noticed in Golaghat, Dhemaji, Lakhimpur and Tinsukia Districts
of Assam and Namsai area of Lohit District in Arunachal Pradesh."
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, while addressing a conference of
State Governors in New Delhi on February 12, 2013, noted that
Left Wing Extremism’s (LWE) geographical spread in the country
was showing a shrinking trend, though it was expanding in Assam,
which was "worrisome". On February 5, 2014, Assam Chief
Minister Tarun Gogoi disclosed that CPI-Maoist had entered into
an understanding with militants based in the Northeastern region
as well as with Pakistan's external intelligence agency Inter-Services
Intelligence (ISI), to spread its network in his State.
Meanwhile, on March
14, 2014, the Revolutionary People's Front (RPF), the political
body of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), which had signed an
agreement with the CPI-Maoist in 2008, congratulated CPI-Maoist
for their successful strike against Security Forces (SFs) in Sukma
District of Chhattisgarh on March 11, and
declared that RPF and CPI-Maoist were 'strategic partners'.
There were also
reports of Northeast militant groups forming a common platform
to fight the ‘enemy’. This was disclosed by Paresh Baruah, ‘commander
in chief’ of ULFA-I, who declared that all the groups have realized
the fact that there is need for fighting the “common enemy” together
and after a series of talks among the various outfits, the decision
was taken to form the proposed common platform. He said that
the move in this regard started three to four years earlier and
final shape had been given recently: “More than 90 per cent of
the work of forming the common platform has been completed and
only the name of the platform has to be declared... Though the
name of the platform is yet to be announced, the words ‘west-south
east Asia’ would be included in the name.” Baruah added that outfits
that had started “so-called talks” with the Government would not
be included in the platform.
Significantly,
on January 19, 2014, Assam DGP, Khagen Sarma stated that
the ISI was behind the unification bid of Northeastern militants:
“It is the Pakistani ISI and other external forces that are behind
the fresh initiative taken by ‘commander in chief’ of ULFA-I to
form a common force on all the insurgent groups based in Northeast
to fight Indian security forces.” Earlier, in 2012, there
had also been reports of China encouraging the CPI-Maoist, militant
groups from Jammu & Kashmir and from the North East region
to unite to form a single 'united strategic front' against the
Indian State.
In March 2013,
Minister of State for Home Affairs M. Ramachandran stated that
insurgent groups in the Northeastern region were getting arms
and ammunition from China. Subsequently, Union Home Minister (UHM)
Sushilkumar Shinde disclosed, "There are reports that the
insurgent groups operating in the north eastern states of India
have been augmenting their armoury by acquiring arms from China
and Sino-Myanmar border towns and routing them through Myanmar.
Significantly, India and Myanmar have agreed to cooperate
to prevent cross border movement of armed groups, share information
on seizure of arms and check arms smuggling/drug trafficking".
Shinde added that the agreement was reached during the 20th Sectoral
Level (Joint Working Group) Meeting between Myanmar and India
held in Bagan, Myanmar, from June 19-20, 2013. The UMHA has described
the 1,643-kilometre-long India-Myanmar border - the locus of cross-border
movement of militants, illegal arms and drugs - as 'extremely
porous'.
In a significant
breakthrough, on August 30, 2013, the NSCN-IM arms supplier, identified
as Wuthikorn Naruenartwanich alias Willy Narue,
was arrested by Bangkok Police on India’s request. He had brokered
a USD 1 million deal involving supply of some 1,000 firearms,
including 600 AK-47s and ammunition, with Chinese arms dealers.
On March 7 and
8, 2013, in the biggest arms haul in Mizoram thus far and one
of the biggest in the Northeast, Mizoram Police and Assam Rifles
seized 31 AK-47 assault rifles, one Singapore-made Light Machine
Gun (LMG), one US-made Browning automatic rifle, 809 rounds of
ammunition, and 32 magazines, from a farmhouse near the Lengpui
Airport, on the outskirts of State capital, Aizawl. The arms were
smuggled from Myanmar and were meant to be delivered to the Parbotia
Chatagram Jana Sangata Samiti (PCJSS), a group claiming to fight
for the rights of the indigenous people of the Chittagong Hill
Tracts (CHT) tribes of Bangladesh.
Militant groups
operating in Northeast continues to maintain camps in neighboring
countries. Significantly, the Border Security Force (BSF) submitted
a list of 66 militant camps operating from Bangladesh, to the
Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB), during a three-day bi-annual border
coordination meeting [March 7-9, 2014] between the BSF inspector-generals
and BGB’s region commanders held in Shillong (Meghalaya). The
Venkaiah Naidu-led department-related Parliamentary Standing Committee
had recommended, in March 2013, increasing pressure on countries
bordering the Northeastern region during trade discussions to
close down Indian rebel training camps operating on their soil.
The North
East Students Organisation (NESO), on March 25, 2013, asked Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh to expedite the ongoing peace process
with various rebel groups in India’s Northeastern states and reverse
the “unabated influx of illegal migrants from neighbouring countries”,
which had brought a serious demographic change in the North East.
NESO urged the Prime Minister to extend the Bengal Eastern Frontier
Regulation, 1873, to the entire Northeastern region. Worryingly,
United Nation Department of Economic and Social Affairs data indicated
that, in 2013, India was home to 3.2 million Bangladeshi residents.
India remained the favourite destination for Bangladeshi migrants
in 2013, the UN report added.
Delays in bringing
negotiations with various militant formations to a conclusion,
irreconcilable 'settlements' with different ethnic groupings,
the mushrooming of splinter insurgent formations, a continuing
politics relying excessively on ethnic identity mobilisation,
and poor governance have combined to keep insurgencies and disorders
alive across the Indian Northeast, with both the regional States
and the Indian Government displaying little sagacity in their
approach to the region's enduring problems. However, exhaustion,
disintegration and the loss of ideological motivation have undermined
most insurgent organisations in the Northeast, giving its people
some relief, though the threat of insurgent violence remains a
permanent sceptre hanging over their heads.
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