Insurgencies
in India's Northeast have seen repeated cycles of reverses
and resurgence. Most States in the region remain poorly
governed and, on a wide range of parameters… The recent
conflagrations in Assam have demonstrated clearly that,
however significant the gains of the state in a particular
theatre, there is no space for the pattern of administrative
incompetence, political corruption and neglect that has
characterized governance in the Northeast - and, increasingly,
much of India as well. The enemy waits, close at hand.
SAIR Volume
11, No. 34, February 25, 2013.
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There was a sharp
spike in civilian fatalities in the Northeast Region in 2014,
after four consecutive years of registering less than 100 fatalities
annually. The IK Songbijit faction of the National Democratic
Front of Bodoland (NDFB-IKS)
(Assam) which accounted for 184 fatalities [137 civilians, one
Security Force (SF) and 43 of its own cadres] was the prime driver
of the skewed trend. NDFB-IKS, led by Myanmar based Ingti Kathar
Songbijit, is fighting for a ‘sovereign Bodoland’ for the Bodo
tribesman of Assam.
There was also
a surge in Meghalaya where splits in existing Garo militant groups
fed a cycle of rising violence. Fratricidal killings among Naga
militant groups, both within and outside Nagaland, however, declined.
The trend for the other States in the region remained stable.
According to partial
data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 2014
registered a 84.52 per cent increase in overall fatality in the
Northeast, as compared to 2013, primarily due to increased fatalities
in Assam, where a 202 per cent rise in total fatalities (305)
was recorded, in comparison to 2013 (101 fatalities). Assam accounted
for 65.59 per cent of overall fatalities (465) across the Northeast
in 2014; followed by Meghalaya (76 fatalities); Manipur (54);
Nagaland (15); Arunachal Pradesh (nine); Tripura (four); and Mizoram
(two). In 2013, Assam had registered 101 fatalities, followed
by Meghalaya (60); Manipur (55); Nagaland (32); Arunachal Pradesh
(four). No fatalities were recorded in Tripura and Mizoram in
2013.
Fatalities
in Militants Violence in India's Northeast 2005-2015*
Years
|
Civilians
|
SFs
|
Militants
|
Total
|
2005
|
334
|
69
|
314
|
717
|
2006
|
232
|
92
|
313
|
637
|
2007
|
457
|
68
|
511
|
1036
|
2008
|
404
|
40
|
607
|
1051
|
2009
|
270
|
40
|
542
|
852
|
2010
|
77
|
22
|
223
|
322
|
2011
|
79
|
35
|
132
|
246
|
2012
|
90
|
18
|
208
|
316
|
2013
|
95
|
21
|
136
|
252
|
2014
|
245
|
23
|
197
|
465
|
2015
|
18
|
6
|
29
|
53
|
Total
|
2301
|
434
|
3212
|
5497
|
Source:
SATP, *Data till March 22, 2015
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In Assam the
trend in overall fatalities has remained erratic over recent years.
According to SATP, a sustained decline was recorded between 2010
and 2012, with a marginal increase in 2013, and then a dramatic
surge in 2014, when 305 fatalities were recorded, including 184
civilians, five Security Force (SF) personnel and 116 militants.
This was the highest number of civilian fatalities in the State
since 2008, when civilian fatalities stood at 224. In the worst
incident of civilian killings, at least 69
Adivasis [central Indian tribesman settled
in Assam] were killed by NDFB-IKS militants in Sonitpur, Kokrajhar
and Chirang Districts on December 23, 2014. NDFB-IKS’s strategy
of similar “soft target” killings also included the slaughter
of 46
Muslim settlers in Baksa and Kokrajhar Districts
in May 2014.
Meanwhile, in mid-February
2015, the Indian Army claimed that the entire top leadership of
Karbi People’s Liberation Tigers (KPLT)
had been arrested. An Army release stated, “The operation has
decimated the organisation and almost completely wiped out the
dreaded KPLT from West Karbi Anglong District of Assam facilitating
return of peace in the poorly developed region." Earlier,
SFs had arrested ‘chairman’, ‘commander-in-chief’, ‘deputy chief’,
’finance secretary’, ‘auditor’ and ‘area commanders’ of KPLT in
different operations. However, Superintendent Of Police (SP- Karbi
Anglong), Mugdha Jyoti Mahanta, on February 1, 2015, observed,
“But the KPLT now has been split into five groups - KPLT (Buche
group), KPLT (Pratap), KPLT (Donri), KPLT (Symbon) and KPLT (Sojong).
Some of these groups have six-seven members."
Another six militant
groups – Independent faction of United Liberation Front of Asom
(ULFA-I),
Kamatapur Liberation organisation (KLO),
Harkat-ul Mujahideen (HuM-Assam unit), Muslim United Liberation
Tigers of Assam (MULTA),
Communist Party of India (CPI-Maoist)
and Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB)
– presently remain active in Assam.
13 other militant
groups are currently under Suspension of Operation (SoO) agreements
with the Government. The Assam Government has spent over INR 9
million on the maintenance of 3,930 cadres of these groups in
24 designated camps. However, no new SoO agreement was signed
in 2014.
14 fatalities [three
civilian, one SF personal and 10 militants] have already been
recorded in 2015 till March 22.
Meghalaya
is the second-worst
insurgency affected State in the Northeast,
with a total of 76 fatalities in 2014 according to SATP data,
as compared to 60 in 2013, an increase of 26.67 per cent. In spite
of the rise in fatalities, however, indices suggest a consolidation
of peace in the State. Significantly, civilian fatalities, which
had been rising continuously since 2009, registered a decline
of 17.86 per cent in 2014, as compared to the previous year, dropping
from 28 to 23. Incidents of civilian killing in both years remained
at 20. Civilian killings in 2014 were reported from five Garo
Hills Districts, which accounted for all the insurgency-linked
fatalities in the year, leaving the remaining six Districts of
the State outside the ambit of lethal violence. In 2013, fatalities
were reported from the West Khasi Hills and South West Khasi Hills
Districts, as well, outside the Garo Hills Districts.
Fatalities among
SF personnel, which had increased sharply in 2013, over 2012,
recorded a decline in 2014. Two SF personnel were killed in 2012;
nine in 2013, as against six in 2014. On the other hand, the State
recorded the highest single-year fatalities among militants since
1992, with 47 killed in 2014. SF action led to 27 militant fatalities
[in 22 encounters], while another 13 rebel cadres were killed
in internecine clashes; seven militants were lynched by angry
villagers in 2014. In 2013, militant fatalities stood at 23 –
including 15 killed by SFs; six lynched by villagers; one killed
in a factional clash; and another one killed by his own group,
according to SATP data.
Garo militant groups,
A’chik National Volunteer Council (ANVC)
and Breakaway faction of ANVC (ANVC-B), were disbanded at a function
at the Dikki-Bandi Stadium at Dakopgre in Tura town of West Garo
Hills District on December 15, 2014. 748 cadres from both factions
- 447 [ANVC] and 301 [of ANVC-B] were present as the ‘chairmen’
of the two militant formations - Dilash Marak [ANVC] and Bernard
N. Marak [ANVC-B] - signed the Affirmation Agreement at the disbanding
ceremony.
Significantly,
a Counter Insurgency (CI) operation, Hill
Storm was launched on July 11, 2014, to neutralize
the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) and the Assam based ULFA-I.
The Operation partially disrupted connectivity between Sohan D.
Shira, 'commander-in-chief' of GNLA, and his immediate aides.
Multiple splits
in militant outfits operating in the Garo Hills have led to an
increase in abduction and extortion cases. Chief Minister Mukul
Sangma, thus observed, “…..the new outfits are mostly groups of
deserters from ANVC, GNLA and others, who are mostly engaged in
extortion and kidnappings and have no specific demands or ideology”.
The general security
environment in Manipur has seen marked
improvement over the past six years. According
to the SATP database, 54 fatalities [20 civilians, 10 SF personnel
and 24 militants] were recorded in the State in 2014, as compared
to 55 [21 civilians, six SF troopers, 28 militants] in 2013. Manipur
had registered 485 insurgency-linked fatalities, including 131
civilians, 13 SF personnel and 341 militants, in 2008. Fatalities
have registered a constant decline thereafter, with the exception
of 2012, when there was a transient spike, primarily due to increasing
militant fatalities. Fatalities among civilians have registered
a continuous decline since 2008.
Fratricidal clashes
among Naga militant formations in Manipur have also declined.
There were just five such clashes in 2014 resulting in three fatalities,
as against six such incidents, resulting in eight fatalities in
2013. These clashes occurred between the Zeliangrong United Front
(ZUF) – at times a combined force of ZUF and Nationalist Socialist
Council of Nagaland–Khaplang (NSCN-K)
– and the NSCN-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM),
and between NSCN-IM and NSCN-Khole-Kitovi (NSCN-KK).
The spillover of
the Naga insurgency has led to considerable loss of life in Manipur.
Deputy Chief Minister Gaikhangam Gangmei, who also holds the Home
portfolio, revealed on July 15, 2014, that over 100 persons had
been killed in Manipur by NSCN-IM since the 1980’s. In 2014, at
least 16 fatalities out of a total of 54 insurgency-linked deaths
in the State, were linked to Naga groups.
At least 28 militant
outfits remained active in Manipur through 2014, according to
the SATP database, prominently including the People’s Liberation
Army (PLA),
United National Liberation Front (UNLF),
Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL),
NSCN-IM and ZUF. On August 29, 2013, the Union Government had
declared that 34 militant formations were active in Manipur.
17 fatalities [five
civilian, one SF trooper and 12 militants] have already been recorded
in 2015.
The relative peace
achieved in Nagaland
was further consolidated through 2014, as insurgency-related fatalities
continued to decline. According to partial data compiled by SATP,
the State recorded a total of 15 fatalities, including 11 civilians
(three incidents) and four militants in 2014, as compared to 32
fatalities in 2013, including 11 civilians and 21 militants, a
decline of 53.12 per cent. As in 2013, there was no fatality among
SF personnel in 2014. Fatalities were reported from five Districts
in 2014 against seven in 2013. The deepening peace is principally
due to the signing of the 'Lenten Agreement' on March 28, 2014,
during a two-day reconciliation meeting of three Naga militant
groups - NSCN-IM, NSCN-KK and Naga National Council/ Federal Government
of Nagaland (NNC/FGN) - at Dimapur, under the banner of the Forum
for Naga Reconciliation (FNR). The agreement, signed by six top
leaders of the three groups, stated that, in accordance with the
Naga Concordant signed on August 26, 2011, they agreed "in
principle to form the NNG [Naga National Government]". The
joint statement, following the agreement, observed, “While this
task is being carried out, we call for maintenance of the status
quo, by vigilantly refraining from any unwarranted activities
by the Nagas”.
According to SATP
data Arunachal
Pradesh recorded a total of nine fatalities,
including three civilians and six militants, through 2014, as
against four fatalities (all militants) in 2013. Civilian killing
was recorded in the State in 2014, for the first time since October
25, 2007. Out of the three civilian killings, at least two occurred
during an Assam Rifles- NSCN-IM encounter in Tirap District.
Tripura
recorded four fatalities in 2014, including two civilians and
two SF personnel. Both SF personnel were killed by cadres of the
Biswamohan faction of National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT-BM)
near the unfenced portion of the India-Bangladesh border in Dhalai
and North Tripura Districts. The last SF fatality, before the
2014 killings, had been recorded on August 6, 2010, and NLFT-BM
was responsible in that case as well. Taking cognizance of the
killings, the Inspector General of the Border Security Force (BSF,
Tripura Frontier), B.N. Sharma, stated on November 28, 2014, “After
two ambushes on BSF troops, the operational strategy has been
changed. We have decided to send jawans in strong numbers to foil
their attempt.” Meanwhile, the NLFT-BM suffered a split in early
December 2014, with ‘commander’ Prabhat Jamatya leaving the group's
camp in Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) with more than 25 followers
and a large cache of arms and ammunition. The NLFT-Prabhat faction
(NLFT-P) is reportedly headquartered in the sprawling house of
a retired Bangladeshi Policeman in Rajghat under the Chunarughat
Sub-district of Habiganj District in Bangladesh. These militants
have also started sending "tax notices" to Tripura residents
from across the border.
In Mizoram
the trend of low to zero fatalities recorded after 2007 continues,
with no fatalities in 2013, and two
civilians in 2014. However, other parameters
of violence, such as explosions and abductions-for-extortion,
registered a minor increase through 2014, as against the preceding
year. Three explosions were recorded in 2014, as against none
in 2013. Fifteen persons were abducted in 2014 against eight persons
in 2013 in similar incidents (these are likely underestimates,
as many such incidents go unreported).
Meanwhile, on January
30, 2015, Mizoram Home Minister R. Lalzirliana stated that the
Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) had agreed to organise a
final six-month repatriation process for internally-displaced
Bru tribals, after which all those who do not return to their
homes in Mizoram, from Tripura, would be removed from Mizoram’s
electoral rolls and further relief to them would also be stopped.
Official records show that almost 4,000 Bru families, who have
voting rights in Mizoram, continue to live in relief camps in
Tripura.
Long standing inter-state border
disputes involving Assam-Nagaland
and Assam-Arunachal Pradesh, which have periodically led to violence,
resulted in 31 fatalities in Assam during 2014. The role of NSCN-IM
and Tani Land National Liberation Tigers (TLNLT), a relatively
insignificant group demanding a separate homeland for the Tani
people in Arunachal Pradesh, was suspected in these killings.
The tentative
and uncertain relief achieved in the Northeast
over the past few years has overwhelmingly been due to increasing
Bangladeshi cooperation with Indian security agencies after the
Awami League, led by Sheikh Hasina Wazed, came to power in January
2009. This period of relief has, however, not been fully utilized
by Assam
to beef up policing capabilities.
On March 3, 2015,
Union Minister of State for Home Affair Haribhai Parathibhai Chaudhary
disclosed that, during 2009-14, the Bangladeshi security agencies
had arrested and handed over 17 top militant leaders, including
those from Meghalaya, Tripura and Assam. Eight others were forced
to surrender before Indian authorities during the same period.
The most prominent militants who were handed over or had surrendered
included: Arabinda Rajkhowa [‘chairman’ undivided ULFA], Raju
Baruah [deputy commander-in-chief’ of undivided ULFA], Chitrabon
Hazarika [‘cultural secretary’ of undivided ULFA], Shasa Choudhury
[‘foreign secretary’ of undivided ULFA], Ranjan Daimary [‘chairman’
NDFB-RD], G. Rifikhang [‘vice-chairman’ of NDFB-RD], Dorsang Narzary
[‘finance secretary’ of NDFB-RD], Champion Sangma [‘chairman’
of GNLA], R.K. Sanayaima alias Meghen [‘chairman’ UNLF]
Ranjit Debbarma [‘chairman’ of All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF)]
and Naynbanshi Jamtiya [‘chairman’ of NLFT-NB].
Notably, on November
29, 2014, SFs in Bangladesh killed eight NLFT-BM militants in
the Naraicherra area near Segun Bangan in the Chittagong Hill
Tracts (CHT). The operation had been launched following intelligence
inputs provided by Indian agencies. Similarly, Bangladesh SFs
launched an operation between November 24 and 28, 2014, destroying
several NLFT-BM hideouts in the Khagrachhari District of Bangladesh,
forcing 36 NLFT-BM cadres to flee to the neighbouring Bandarban
District (Bangladesh). This operation also led to the arrest of
NLFT-BM ‘commander’ Kwaplai Debbarma aka Karna (33) from
the house of a former ATTF ‘commander’ Jewel Debbarma, in the
Char Mile area of Khagrachhari District.
Another two threats
are crystallizing in the region: Left Wing Extremism (LWE) and
jihadi terrorism. The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist)
has been trying to establish
organizational bases in the Northeast. On
July 30, 2014, Union Minister of State for Home Kiren Rijiju noted,
"The CPI (Maoist) has developed close fraternal ties with
Northeast insurgent groups like the Revolutionary People's Front,
PLA of Manipur, NSCN-IM and ULFA. The outfit also forged tactical
understanding with the RPF, PLA and NSCN-IM for procuring arms
and ammunition and imparting military, communication training
to its cadres.” Further, the transnational jihadi presence
in Assam was further exposed through investigations into the JMB
Burdwan
Module in West Bengal. After the accidental
blast at Burdwan on October 2, 2014, in which two people were
killed and another was injured, a total of 17 persons were arrested
by the National Investigation Agency (NIA). Significantly, after
the announcement by Ayman al Zawahiri of the formation of Al Qaeda
in the Indian Sub-continent (AQIS) reports indicated that 23 youth
from the Lilong area of Thoubal District, Manipur, left to join
the newly constituted group. Four of these returned shortly thereafter,
while the remaining were reportedly untraceable.
The Union Government
has announced its intention to complete peace talks with NSCN-IM
within the current year under its strategy of time bound negotiations.
On October 18, 2014, while commenting on peace talks with the
Naga group, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval noted, “There
should never be any feeling that it (talks) is protracted… The
(peace) process is the means to an end and if there is an end,
which is a desired end, it must be found in real time. There should
be rule of law in the Naga insurgency-affected areas for which
peace process must be completed as early as possible." It
remains to be seen how these declarations are translated into
policy and process. Two other NSCN factions, the Khole-Kitovi
and S.S. Khaplang factions, are also observing a ceasefire with
the Government.
Similar negotiations
for peaceful settlements are going on with other armed groups
in the region, including: the Pro Talks Faction of NDFB (NDFB-PTF),
Ranjan Daimary faction of NDFB (NDFB-RD), Karbi Longri North Cachar
Hills Liberation Front (KLNLF),
Pro Talks Faction of ULFA (ULFA-PTF), five Adivasi militant groups
- Adivasi Cobra Military of Assam (ACMA), Adivasi People’s Army
(APA), Santhal Tiger Force (STF), Birsa Commando Force (BCF) and
All Adivasi National Liberation Army (AANLA);
and four Kuki and Hmar outfits - Kuki Revolution Army (KRA),
Kuki Liberation Organization (KLO), Hmar Peoples Convention Democratic
(HPCD)
and United Kukigam Defence Army (UKDA) [all Assam based]; as
well as 19 groups under the Kuki National Organisation (KNO)
and United Progressive Front (UPF) [Kuki groups based in Manipur].
In September 2014,
the Prime Minister's Office directed the Project Monitoring Group
(PMG) of the Cabinet Secretariat to fast-track 21 development
projects in the Northeast, including nine in Arunachal Pradesh,
seven in Assam, three in Tripura and one each in Meghalaya and
Manipur. The combined cost of these projects is projected at INR
1001.51 billion. 11 of these are power projects, including erection
of transmission lines; another five are railway projects; four
are related to petroleum and natural gas; and one cement plant.
The Government also cleared INR 53.3618 billion under the Comprehensive
Telecom Development Plan for the Northeast region. The project
envisages providing second generation (2G) mobile technology coverage
in identified uncovered areas and seamless mobile coverage along
National Highways in the region. At present, there are 43,200
villages in this region of which 9,190 (21 per cent) are not connected
to any mobile network. Under this project, the Cabinet has approved
covering 8,621 villages by installing 6,673 towers.
On February 14,
2015, Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh made an appeal to give
“at least 10 years' time to develop the Northeast. Development
of Northeast India is the top priority of the incumbent Central
Government”
The Government
plan to enhance connectivity and boost development, however, faces
obstacles due to the presence of external agencies, including
Pakistan’s Inter- Services Intelligence (ISI), and unsecured international
borders. On February 28, 2015, Tripura Chief Minister Manik Sarkar
warned, "The ISI is preventing militants of Tripura, who
still have 20 camps in Bangladesh, from joining the mainstream…
Their [ISI] ultimate agenda is to continue with disturbing peace
in the region, which we need to counter with political ideology
and administrative action."
Earlier, on August
19, 2014, Sudesh Kumar, IG BSF (Meghalaya Frontier), had raised
the issue of illegal arms trade, observing, “There are isolated
instances of arms and ammunition entering into the country across
the international border with Bangladesh, but a substantial quantity
is coming from the international border with Myanmar and China.”
The Northeast presents
many challenges unique to the region, with different militant
and ethnic groups pursuing divergent and mutually exclusive objectives
through a multiplicity of armed struggles. The situation is compounded
by unsecured border, poor governance – both within the region
and in neighbouring countries – the illegal arms trade, and external
mischief. Despite the persistence of troubles in the region, there
has been little coherence in response by State Governments, with
the conspicuous exception of Tripura, and no sense of urgency
or strategic vision displayed by the Centre. Prime Minister Narendra
Modi’s Government has made some bold announcements suggesting
that things are slated to change in the foreseeable future – but
such declarations of intent by New Delhi are not unique. It remains
to be seen whether implementation will progress with the necessary
measure of efficiency or effectiveness to bring enduring relief
to this violence wracked region.
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