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Despite projections to the contrary by India's Central Government,
the internal security scenario continues to be problematic, particularly
in Jammu & Kashmir, while insurgencies in the North-Eastern States
continue to fester.
In quantitative terms there was a marginal improvement in India's fight
against these secessionist movements. The worrisome aspect in this context
is the aid that the various insurgent groups continue to receive from
Pakistan, which helps sustain protracted low-intensity conflicts. Low-key
violence, too, continues in other regions of the country.
J&K continues to be the prominent hot-spot in the country. Even
as Indian security forces have gained an upper hand in the battle against
Pakistan-backed militants, a new dimension witnessed in 1999-2000 is
suicide attacks by foreign militants on military bases in the state.
This was after a downtrend of militant violence witnessed during the
first half of 1999. The June-July 1999 clashes in the Kargil sector
between the Indian army and infiltrators from Pakistan (mainly Pakistani
army personnel and some militants, including mercenaries) mark a major
development in the low-key proxy war being conducted by Pakistan against
India.
The Kargil episode (which is viewed in Pakistan as a wasted golden
opportunity to humble India in J&K) has the potential to encourage
a fresh round of the low-intensity conflict in the region. The shadow
of Kashmir militancy was evident in the hijacking of the Indian Airlines
aircraft IC 814 in the last week of December which was resolved only
after three militants were released from Indian jails and flown into
Afghanistan, from where they returned to Pakistan. Of them, Maulana
Masood Azhar, a Muslim cleric has publicly announced his desire to intensify
his involvement in the Kashmir insurgency, strengthening the criticism
that India is a soft state that is unable to give a firm response to
militant intransigence.
The ground situation indicates that despite government efforts, the
casualties of the J&K insurgency has increased in 1999 as compared
to that in 1998 (2,538 and 2,261 respectively). This development reverses
a declining trend whereby the casualties of this protracted conflict
had begun declining after reaching a peak in 1996 (2,903 killed). More
than a failure of the government's internal security strategies, this
could be an outcome of increased activism by Pakistan's Inter-Services
Intelligence (ISI). This activism has manifest itself in ISI-sponsored
terrorist activities which have been spreading from their traditional
zones of Punjab, J&K and the North-East to other regions of the
country, particularly the capital, New Delhi, where several incidents
of bomb blasts and arms seizures have been attributed to ISI agents.
Similarly, there is a growing nexus between the ISI and other terrorist
groups in India. The UP-Nepal border is now a major conduit point aimed
at creating violent disruption in India.
The North-East, too, continues to be in turmoil even as more evidence
of linkages between insurgent groups and the ISI emerges. While insurgency
in Mizoram has largely subsided, security forces continue to battle
with terrorism in Assam, Manipur, Nagaland and Tripura. Despite a cease-fire
between the security forces and several insurgent groups in Nagaland
there have been reports of violence. In a major development the General
Secretary of the National
Socialist Council of Nagaland--Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) Thuengaling
Muivah was arrested in Bangkok on January 19, 2000 for travelling from
Karachi on a false passport. This may prove to be a setback to the negotiations
currently underway between the government and the NSCN-IM as the Karachi
visit raises suspicions on the intentions of the NSCN-IM. At a time
when Indian troops were battling in Kargil, the United
Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) was involved in providing details
of troop movements to Pakistani intelligence. Also, the ULFA assassinated
a State Minister.
Several initiatives made by the government in 1998 and the first half
of 1999 to herald peace in strife torn areas are yet to fructify. While
Assam saw a major decline in civilian and security personnel casualties
during 1999 as compared to those in 1998 (291 and 603 respectively)
there was an increase in the number of terrorists killed (212 and 180).
The same was the case in Nagaland, while there was a marginal rise in
civilian and security forces casualties in Tripura.
The Cost of Terrorism: Civilian and Security Forces Killed
Degree of Success in India's Fight Against Terrorism: Terrorists Killed
The example of resolving insurgency through dialogue in Mizoram is
yet to be replicated in the others States of the region.
Punjab, too, is a unique case in India's internal security scenario
where a combination of political revival and effective law and order
measures ensured the termination of a secessionist movement which had
at one point threatened the territorial integrity of India. The fact
that this was achieved in the face of sustained support to militancy
from Pakistan makes the normalisation process notable. There were no
casualties in Punjab in 1998 or 1999. However, there have been isolated
instances of terrorist groups attempting to revive the Khalistan movement,
attempts which have been unsuccessful.
In 1999, banned armed radical left groups, Naxalites, continued to
perpetrate violence in Bihar and Andhra Pradesh (AP) even as they have
spread their activity into Madhya Pradesh (MP). Naxal activity was primarily
aimed at disrupting the poll process during the run-up to the general
elections. While Bihar was the worst hit, polling in AP, too, was affected
by the Naxal threat. The run-up to elections to the State Legislature
in Bihar in February 2000 saw renewed violence by Naxal groups, particularly
on the polling day, February 12 in which 17 persons including 12 police
personnel where killed.
Clashes between the various factions of Naxal groups and private armies
continues in Bihar; sympathisers of the warring groups bore the brunt
of the violence. There were several major massacres in 1999. Two such
massacres occurred on January 25 and February 12, claiming 22 and 12
victims respectively, which included women and children. 12 more were
killed in another massacre perpetrated on November 17, 1999. In AP the
police notched up a success against the main Naxal group, the Peoples
War Group (PWG) when they killed three of their top leaders on December
1, 1999 allegedly an encounter. The PWG, claimed that these leaders
were arrested in Bangalore, brought to AP and shot dead in cold blood,
in retribution unleashed a violent wave of arson, landmine and bomb
attacks. In 1999, the PWG had killed a total of 2,213 persons.
In its latest attack, the PWG used a landmine explosion to kill an
AP Minister, the first in the State, and three of his security personnel
on March 7, 2000. Earlier on, they had killed a former Speaker of the
State Assembly. Indicating the spread of Naxal violence from the traditional
pocket boroughs of Bihar and AP, the Transport Minister of MP, Lakhiram
Kanwre, was killed on December 15, 1999 by the People's War Group in
retaliation for the killing of their three leaders. This was followed
by two major ambushes on police parties killing 22 in MP (February 20,
2000) and seven in AP (February 18, 2000).
The situation in Tamil Nadu unlike most other violence prone regions
discussed above, shows signs of improvement. Unlike the period between
1996-1998, when communal clashes in the State (particularly Coimbatore)
had threatened to blow-up into large-scale communal strife and there
were reports of Islamic militant organistations growing in strength,
the situation has now been effectively contained with no major incidents
reported in 1999.
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