Nepal Assessment 2008

Throughout the year 2007, persisting political volatility as well as insurgent activity continued to augment Nepal’s instability. Though the number of insurgency-related fatalities has remained low, subversive activity of the CPN-Maoist continued to grow unchecked across the country. According to the Institute for conflict Management database, 95 persons have been killed this year (provisional data till December 13), including 55 civilians and 40 Maoists, against a total of 480 fatalities in 2006, which included, 61 civilians, 181 security force (SF) personnel and 238 insurgents. According to the Kathmandu-based Informal Sector Education Centre (INSEC), 20 people were killed by the SFs and 22 persons were killed by the Maoist youth wing, the Young Communist League (YCL) ever since the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) came into effect in November 2006. An INSEC report disclosed that 772 people were abducted by the YCL over this period, adding that the Maoists were continuing with their illegal activities and violating the rights of the general people. It is, nevertheless, the case that the number of fatalities has declined dramatically since the Cease-fire Code of Conduct was signed between the Government of Nepal and CPN-Maoist on May 25, 2006.

As the CPN-Maoist came over-ground to join the mainstream political process after its agreements with the Government, it revived its militant youth wing, the YCL in November 2006. The YCL, which was formed by the CPN–Maoist at some point (there is no definite information on the year of its creation) during the ‘people’s war’ as an affiliate to provide support and energy to the ‘revolution’, is presently involved in activities including intimidation, extortion, looting, abduction attacks on members and cadres of other political parties. The YCL has reportedly received extensive training in unarmed combat and cadres openly carry knives, sticks, iron bars and other improvised weapons and have paraded themselves around the countryside and the Kathmandu region without fear or restriction since the CPA. Reports indicate that the YCL "is a group of highly trained commandos of the Maoists who, instead of being sent to the cantonments, have been deliberately kept in the open by the party high command to meet exigencies." It is also believed that the reactivation of the YCL and the appointment of top Maoist commanders as its leaders at a time when the United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) is conducting the verification of arms and armies of the Maoists is evidently a part of the grand strategy to keep Maoist cadres outside the scope of UNMIN scrutiny and to use their energies to dominate the CA elections.

The UNMIN has been monitoring the verification of the arms and armies of the Maoists in each and every cantonment of the PLA. This has certainly troubled and angered the Maoists, as the UNMIN found large numbers of child soldiers in the Maoists ‘Army’. As the UNMIN term is due to end on January 23, 2008, the Government decided to extend its term by six months. At this point, however, the Maoists have raised question marks on the UNMIN’s role. Senior Maoist leader Ram Bahadur Thapa a.k.a. Badal alleged that UNMIN was going beyond its mandate and behaving like activists and journalists. Badal also accused the UNMIN of being involved in the process of dissolving the PLA, instead of working for the merger of two armies of Nepal.

While the YCL continues with its intimidation across the country, other pro-Maoist groups have also pitched in. The Buddhist ethnic group, Nepal Rashtriya Tamang Mukti Morcha (Tamang National Liberation Front), is pressurizing the Government by demanding autonomy and a republic. They have organised strikes and shut downs in the Kathmandu, Makawanpur, Sindhupalchowk, Kavrepalanchowk, Makawanpur, Dhading, Nuwakot and Rasuwa Districts. Similarly, another Maoist-affiliated organisation, the Samyukta Ganatantrik Dalit Mukti Morcha (United Democratic Dalit Liberation Front), comprising members of the dalit (lower caste Hindus) community, is demanding proportional representation for dalits in the impending election, and a republic.

Earlier, on January 15, 2007, all Members of the Interim Parliament, including 83 Maoist representatives, were sworn in, marking the commencement of a new phase in Nepal’s politics. While in Parliament, however, the Maoists used various pressure tactics on the Government to weaken and subdue other parties in the Alliance. Finally, they quit the Interim Government on September 18, stating that their twin demands – a proportional representation system to be adopted for the Constituent Assembly (CA) elections and the declaration of the country as a Republic by the Interim Parliament before the CA elections – were non-negotiable. The Maoists quit the Government as no consensus could emerge on their demands even after repeated rounds of talks. On October 21, Prime Minister G. P. Koirala said that the Nepali Congress is ready for a ‘commitment proposal’ to announce a republic after the Constituent Assembly election, but is opposed to a fully proportional representation system as demanded by the Maoists. Koirala also stated that the Maoist proposal to adopt a fully proportional representation system would not be accepted by the Nepali Congress under any circumstances.

The much-hyped CA polls, which were originally scheduled for June 2007, and then rescheduled for November 22, were deferred indefinitely after the Eight Party Alliance [the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) plus the Maoists] failed to reach any consensus over the two key Maoist demands. Strongly opposed by the NC, which is the largest party in the Interim Parliament, the Maoists called for a special session of Parliament. After prolonged deliberations, the House, through a majority voice vote, passed the amendment proposal of the Communist Party of Nepal – Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) which directed the Government to immediately determine all necessary procedures to proclaim the country a republic and to take concrete steps in this regard. The Interim Parliament also decided to adopt a fully proportional representation system for the CA polls. The parliamentary voting clearly demonstrated a unity of the Left parties, with the CPN-UML and the Maoists supporting each others’ proposals. Under this arrangement, the Maoists withdrew their motion for immediate declaration of a republic and supported the CPN-UML's proposal for a ‘federal republic’. In return, the CPN-UML supported the Maoists proposal of a fully proportional electoral system. However, these motions cannot be implemented without amending the Interim Constitution by a two-third majority of the House, which remains impossible without the NC’s support. However, as the proposals have been approved by the Interim Parliament by a majority voice vote, Koirala faces a measure of moral pressure to act quickly on these issues, despite his party’s strong line against the proposals.

But without any significant initiative in this direction by the Koirala Government, Prachanda issued a ‘48-hour ultimatum’ on December 13, stating that the Maoists would start a ‘new movement’ from December 16 and seek to reshuffle the cabinet if their demand of abolition of the monarchy was not met. He also repeated his stand that his party would rejoin the Interim Government only on condition that his party was given the position of Senior Deputy Prime minister and that the Home, Defence and Finance Ministries be shared among the three major parties.

The emergence of armed groups in the volatile Terai region has multiplied the woes of the embattled Government, with sporadic violence and armed activity continuing throughout the year. Killings, abductions, violence, and disruptive political demonstrations and strikes continue in the region without any sign of relief for its beleaguered people. Currently, there are approximately 20 armed groups operating in the Terai with diverse agendas. The most prominent among these are: the Madheshi Janadhikar Forum (MJF, also known as Madheshi Peoples’ Rights Forum) and the two factions of the Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM, Democratic Terai Liberation Front) led by Jaya Krishna Goit (JTMM-G) and Nagendra Kumar Paswan a.k.a. Jwala Singh (JTMM-J), respectively. With well-trained armed militias, these groups are currently orchestrating unrest in the region, engaging in killings, abduction, looting and extortion. Other active entities include the JTMM – Bisfot Singh faction, Madheshi Rashtriya Mukti Morcha (Madheshi National Liberation Front), Madheshi Mukti (Liberation) Tigers, Terai Cobra, Terai Baagi (Rebels), Terai Army, Madheshi Virus Killers Party and the Royal Defence Army.

On December 4, 2007, the breakaway faction of the Nepal Sadbhawana Party (NSP) led by Rajendra Mahato unveiled its militant youth wing called Madhesh Raksha Bahini (Madhesh Security Brigade) at Birgunj in the Parsa District. The party’s district secretary, Shiva Patel, said the cadres were trained in self-defence tactics such as using lathis (batons), judo and karate and claimed that there were 23,000 such members across the country. On December 7, four parties of in the Terai region, MJF led by Bhagyanath Gupta, Dalit Janajati Party, Madhesi Loktantrik Morcha (Madheshi Democratic Party) and Loktantrik Madheshi Morcha (Democratic Madheshi Party), came together to float the Broader Madheshi National Front (BMNF). In a joint statement they said that they all believe in the liberation of the Madheshi people through a federal democratic republic, proportional representation and autonomous Madhesh region equipped with the right to self determination.

Though these groups are present across the Terai region, major incidents have been reported mainly from eight of the region’s 20 Districts – Siraha, Dhanusha, Morang, Sarlahi, Bara, Saptari, Mohattari, and Rautahat. These incidents include the killing and abduction of civilians, Government employees and also Maoists, the last of which are regarded as the foremost enemies of the Madheshi movement and people. According to an INSEC report, 33 persons were killed by the MJF, JTMM-G killed 18 persons, JTMM-J killed 27 persons and eight others were killed by other agitating groups in the Terai since November 2006. The report also claimed that the armed groups seized properties of more than 279 people in the Terai region.

Gradually, however, the Terai movement is becoming more political in orientation, with more and more leaders across party lines coming to support common issues. On December 10, senior Nepali Congress leader and Minister for Science, Technology and Environment, Mahantha Thakur, along with Hridayesh Tripathi of the Nepal Sadbhavana Party (Anandi Devi), Mahendra Prasad Yadav of the CPN-UML and Ram Chandra Raya of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party, tendered their resignations from Parliament. Other Madheshi leaders quit their respective parties, including Sarbendra Nath Sukla of the Rastriya Janatantrik Party, Anish Ansari, Ram Chandra Kushbaha and Brishesh Chandra Lal of the NC and Shri Krishna Yadav, chairman of the Madhesi Rastriya Manch, which is affiliated to the CPN-UML.

Discontented with the Government, many marginalized groups and ethnicities are demanding their wider spaces in governance, bringing the Government under intense pressure from various indigenous communities. Their major demands include a federal restructuring of the state based on ethnic lines, the ‘right to self determination’ and a proportional representation-based electoral system. All the major groups representing the indigenous communities have united for a common struggle on these demands. Groups like the Nepal Federation of Indigenous Nationalities (NEFIN), Nepal Federation of Indigenous Nationalities Students, Indigenous Nationalities Joint Struggle Committee, National Indigenous Nationalities Women’s Federation and Nepal Indigenous Nationalities Youth Association have joined hands to pressurise the Government, resorting to strikes and agitations across the country. They have also engaged in occasional violence, including the destruction of public property during demonstrations. The leader of the Government talks’ team, Ram Chandra Poudel, expressed the Government’s inability to entertain all such demands by ethnic groups, stating: "There are over 100 ethnic groups in the country and if all of them are to be represented, the Constituent Assembly will be more of an ethnic assembly and less of a political assembly."

Similarly, the two other agitating ethnic groups, the Limbuwans and Khumbuwans, have been organising strikes in the eastern Districts, demanding an autonomous federal state based on ethnicity. Their avowed goal is the creation of autonomous regions along the boundaries of the traditional areas of their ethnic groups. They have resorted to sporadic violence and organized strikes in many Districts where these communities are in a majority. The Sanghiya Limbuwan Rajyaparisad [Federal Limbuwan State Council (FLSC)] has demanded that nine Districts lying east of the Arun River – Panchthar, Taplejung, Terhathum, Sankhusabha, Ilam, Jhapa, Dhankuta, Sunsari and Morang – be declared the Limbuwan State. Similarly, the Khumbuwan Rastriya Morcha (Khumbuwan National Front) is demanding a ‘Khumbuwan State’ comprising seven Districts – Solukhumbu, Okhaldhunga, Udayapur, Bhojpur, Khotang, Siraha and Saptari. In response to a talks offer by the Government on August 9, both these outfits have decided to suspend their agitation and have also formed negotiating teams to hold a dialogue.

Meanwhile, on December 4, the Limbuwan State Council claimed that it had given ‘military training’ to 6,000 cadres. According to reports, the organisation has provided a basic one month training in the jungles in the eastern hilly Districts. The Jhapa District secretary of the Council, Dhanraj Subba, said they were preparing to give another phase of training soon. Cadres aged between 18 and 40 years have been trained in weapons’ use, and other guerrilla tactics.

Chure Bhawar Ekta Samaj–Nepal (CBES-N, Chure Bhawar Unity Society) is another group which has been demanding security and protection of the rights of the people of hill origin living in the Terai region, seeking autonomous status for the Chure-Bhawar region. This group is a direct response to the activities of the Terai armed groups and represents the interests of the Tamang, Magar and some other hill-ethnic groups. They demand that the Government ban the Terai armed groups that are killing pahades in the Terai, and declare as martyrs the CBES-N cadres who are killed.

Similarly, the dalits are calling for the fulfillment of their demands, which includes 20 percent reservation for people from their community in the Constituent Assembly, scholarships and free education for dalit students. An association of dalit women – Dalit Women for Ensuring Proportional Participation of Dalit Women in Constituent Assembly and New State Structure – issued a 15-point charter of Nepali Dalit Women in Building New Nepal-2007 on November 30 and, among other things, called for securing 13 per cent seats for Dalit women in the Constituent Assembly election, providing 20 per cent reservation to Dalit women in every level of the state in the overall women’s reservation and 50 per cent in reservations made for Dalit community, and ensuring proportional representation in the political parties from the decision-making level down to the grassroots level. The President of the Association, Durga Sob, warned that the Dalit women would launch a strong movement if the state did not take their demands seriously.

There has been little significant change in terms of patterns of governance, with the interim Government constantly under threat from the Maoists and pressurised by other groups. With the Government simply unable to put its house in order, civil administration has been seriously undermined as the Maoists frequently attacked and closed the offices of the District Development Committees and also attacked the restored Police posts throughout the country (the posts had been closed down during the peoples’ war phase). Similarly, there were reports of the Maoists running their own kangaroo courts to ‘resolve’ civil disputes, undermining the country’s judicial system. The weakness of the state in this regard peaked when armed groups in the Terai region attacked the Village Development Committee (VDC) secretaries drawn from the hill region. VDC secretaries across the Terai resigned en masse in protest against the inability of the Government to provide security. In response, the Government has now deployed some Special Task Forces in Terai Districts.

According to Dharma Adhikari, a senior journalist, the Government's efforts in "addressing new grievances, curbing violence and listening to new voices of dissent can, at best, be described as haphazard and ill-equipped. Dialogue with the new rebels is hindered by the fact that these groups don't have a clear leadership or a common political agenda, just like in the national political scene."

In retrospect, the peace process is hinged on several complex realities and most of which are not amenable to solution. Nepal is going through a period of unstable transition. Many issues remain unresolved among the major parties since the postponement of the CA elections. Many groups want their space in the new arrangement and are exerting pressure on the Government and have not hesitated to even resort to violence to push their demands. While the Maoists will not engage in a good-faith process to ensure long-term peace, the Government remains unable to contain or tackle the insurgents, and fears that the rebels may revert to the insurgency at any stage. Nepal is clearly on the edge.

RELATED LINKS