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Nepal Assessment 2003

A total of 2,105 persons, including 1,584 Maoists, were killed in the year 2003 across Nepal, after Maoist insurgents called off the seven-month-old cease-fire on August 27, 2003. The cease-fire was originally announced on January 29, 2003. Fatalities were relatively low in the first eight months of the year — with 115 persons killed in January, 32 in February and between March and July, just nine. However, 84 persons lost their lives in August, largely due to the build-up of tensions and eventual collapse of the cease-fire. The total number killed in the insurgency substantially increased in the subsequent four months with 509 killed in September, 525 in October, 370 in November and 461 in December. Total fatalities for the year stood at 2,105, as against 4,896 in 2002.

While the exact cadre strength of the Maoists is difficult to estimate, official figures put their numbers at 5,500 combatants, 8,000 militia, 4,500 cadres, 33,000 hardcore followers and 200,000 'sympathisers' in early 2003.

At the third round of peace talks which began on August 17, 2003, between the present Government under Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa and the Maoists in the western Nepalese town of Nepalgunj, the Government presented a 'concept paper' which included suggestions for changes in the country’s administration. While the ‘concept paper’ conceded two key Maoist demands, for a roundtable conference and an interim government, the Government held that reforms demanded by the Maoists for elections to a Constituent Assembly could be introduced through amendments to the present Constitution. The Government suggested that political parties be included in the roundtable to discuss the reforms and the Maoists be included in an interim government that would hold elections to a new Parliament, which could, in turn, endorse the decisions of the roundtable.

The Maoists, however, rejected these proposals, dismissing them as 'cosmetic changes'. The third round of talks continued for another two days in the Maoist hotbed of Dang district. However, the Constituent Assembly issue could not be resolved and on August 27, 2003, the Maoists withdrew from the truce and violence again erupted in Nepal.

The year also witnessed a change of regime in Nepal during the period of the ‘peace talks’. On May 30, 2003, the caretaker Government under Lokendra Bahadur Chand resigned, amidst pressure from the growing anti-monarchy agitation launched by Opposition political parties. King Gyanendra appointed Surya Bahadur Thapa as Prime Minister of Nepal on June 4, 2003, after turning down the proposal for premiership for Madhav Kumar Nepal (then secretary general of CPN-UML) jointly put forward by the five agitating political parties.

At the first round of peace talks held on April 27, 2003, by the Chand Government, the Maoists submitted a 35-point socio-political-economic agenda which outlined three main issues: Interim government, elections to the Constituent Assembly within six months and the formation of a joint army of the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) and the Maoists.

Those who participated in the talks included Maoist leaders Baburam Bhattarai, Krishna Bahadur Mahara and Ram Bahadur Thapa. Government negotiators included the Minister for Physical Planning, Narayan Singh Pun, and Minister for Communications, Ramesh Nath Pandey. The Maoists had earlier withdrawn from the 'introductory talks' on April 21, 2003, demanding discussions on 'substantive issues'.

At the second round of talks held on May 9, 2003, the Government accepted two of the Maoist demands: restriction of the RNA’s movement within five kilometers of their barracks and release of detained senior Maoist leaders. Though, on May 16, 2003, Government spokesperson Narayan Singh Pun accepted the agreement with the Maoists on the restriction of the Army’s movement, the then Premier, Lokendra Bahadur Chand, rejected it. On December 18, the Government announced a general amnesty programme to the Maoists and urged them, their relatives and associates to eschew violence and surrender with or without weapons before February 12, 2004.

In the year 2002, 4,896 persons, including 3,992 Maoists, 666 security force personnel and 238 civilians were killed across Nepal.

Fatalities in Moaist Insurgency, 2003

 

Civilians
SF Personnel
Maoists
Total

January

15
20
80
115

February

2
3
27
32

March

0
0
0
0

April

0
0
1
1

May

0
0
0
0

June

1
0
4
5

July

2
0
1
3

August

2
24
58
84

September

72
65
372
509

October

41
62
422
525

November

24
76
270
370

December

55
57
349
461
Total
214
307
1548
2105

 

Fatalities in Maoist Insurgency, 2002

 
Civilians
SF personnel
Maoists
Total

January

27
13
164
204

February

19
199
289
507

March

18
23
303
344

April

18
103
382
503

May

2
46
975
1023

June

3
11
255
269

July

4
4
112
120

August

14
3
205
222

September

57
154
452
663

October

14
7
144
165

November

42
79
567
688

December

20
24
144
188

Total

238
666
3992
4896

 

The Emergency, imposed in November 2001 after the first attacks by the Maoists on the Army following the breakdown of peace talks, had to be renewed every three months by the Parliament and eventually lapsed on August 25, 2002. However, since May 2002, when Parliament was dissolved following differences within the ruling Nepali Congress party, the Emergency was extended through an ordinance.

After the Emergency ended, the Maoists stepped up their activities and began to concentrate on Kathmandu. The capital appeared increasingly vulnerable, with frequent bombing incidents, as well as a large number of attempts that were foiled by the security forces.

The Government concluded that the Maoists had been emboldened by the lifting of the Emergency and began dropping hints that the Emergency could be clamped again. The Opposition parties, however, disagreed with the Government’s assessment, although they remained committed to elections in November 2002. Things, however, changed dramatically in the first week of September 2002. The Maoists blew up a police post in East Nepal on September 8, and overran a district headquarters in western Nepal the very next day. More than a hundred people, including soldiers, armed police, civil police and civilians were killed, while the Maoists also suffered an equal number of casualties. The attacks, which came after a lull of four months, surprised the political establishment in Kathmandu. It was believed that the Maoists were on the run considering the cumulative reverses they had suffered. The loss of Maoist cadres in engagements with the Army; reports of surrenders by Maoists and their sympathizers; India’s assurance that its territory would not be used as a safe haven by the Maoists, were all thought to have delivered hard body blows to Maoist operational capacities. The attacks sent a clear message to the Government that the strength of the Maoists was not to be underestimated.

Earlier, after a little over an year of its appointment on July 22, 2001, King Gyanendra dismissed the elected Sher Bahadur Deuba-led Government on October 4, 2002, calling Deuba ‘inept’ in handling the Maoist insurgency. The King assumed executive powers, and his promise of appointing an interim ‘national government’ did not materialise under the former Prime Minister and palace loyalist, Lokendra Bahadur Chand. Elections to Parliament were deferred indefinitely.

Rigorous training by ex-armed forces personnel have honed the military skills of the Maoists to the extent that their strikes are now characterized by detailed planning and deadly precision. Attacking during the night, the guerrillas have graduated to targeting district headquarters as well. In one such attack, on November 14, 2002, hundreds of insurgents overran the Jumla district headquarters, Khalangha Bazzar, and killed at least 37 police personnel. The insurgents first attacked the airport and then two police establishments and Government offices, killing the chief district officer, Damodar Pant, and two others. To deal with the attackers, reinforcements of Army troops and night vision helicopters were rushed in. On the same night, 23 police personnel were shot dead in the Gorkha district. Earlier, in a prolonged gun battle on October 27, the state forces eventually repulsed the rebels who had stormed the Rumjatar Airport in the Okhaldhunga district. Thereafter, the insurgents attacked the District Police Office, where 32 of them were killed, while two SF personnel lost their lives.

The largest number of SF casualties in major rebel attacks were during September and February 2002. Forty nine SF personnel were shot dead in the attack on the police post at Bhiman in Sindhuli district on September 7, 2002, while in a second attack on September 8, in Sandhikharkha, the district headquarters of Argakanchi, 68 SF personnel were killed. Sixteen SF personnel lost their lives in an attack on the Bhakundebeshi police station in the Karve district on February 4 and 97 SF personnel were shot dead on February 16—the highest number of SF casualties on a single day during year 2002—when rebels stormed the Saphebagar airport in the Accham district and the Army barracks in Mangalsen town. In another major attack on April 11 at two police posts at Satbaria and Lamahi in the Dang district, insurgents killed 84 SF personnel. In another attack launched on May 7, which extended into the next day, rebels killed 70 SF personnel at the base camp at Gam village in Rolpa district. On December 17, Maoists insurgents killed 11 soldiers in separate land mine blasts in Kapilavastu and Bardiya districts.

Fatalities in Major Clashes between Secrity Forces and Maoist Insurgents, 2003

Date

Civilians
 Security Forces
Maoist Insurgents
Place

January 29

 

  

13

Gulmi

August 25

 

 

10

Nauthar village in Lamjung district

August 26

 

 

7

Melbote area of Panchthar district

September 2

 

 

11

Pasagaon area of Lamjung district.

September 5

 

 

10

Karnali bridge in the Bajura district

September 7

 

 

20

Ghartigaon in the Rolpa district

September 8

8

 

 

Kathmandu

September 17

 

5
57

Bhagawn area of Rolpa district

September 18

 

 
28

Panchthar and Accham districts

September 22

 

 
18

Udayapur, Banke and Nuwakot districts

September 23

  

 
15

Kailali, Barida, Taplejung and Panchthar districts.

September 25

 

 
11

Surket, Kailali, Dadeldhura and Rupandahi districts

September 27

 

  
12

Chitapokhari in the Khotang district

September 30

 

 
35

Katahira police post in the Rautahat district.

October 11

 

 
125

Kusum in the Dang district

October 12

 

13
25

Bhalubang police barrack in Dang district

October 13

 

 
12

Doti district

October 15

 

2
25

Accham district

October 16

 

 
16

Chhatwal in the Sarlahi district

October 28

2
 

Sishuwa Police Post at Danda Nak in Kaski district

November 2

    

20
    

Simara in the Bara district; Parsa district

November 8

  

 
7

Sainpashala in Bhajhang district

November 12

  

 
12

Baijapur in Banke district

December 2

  

 
12

Palpa, Argakanchi, Panchthar Sarlahi and Dang districts

December 3

  

6
25

Bandaul and Pandaun areas of Kailali district

December 4

  

 
12

Palpa district

December 5 – 6

  

 
14

Khotang, Sindhuli, Dolakha, Bardia, Taplejung, Panchthar and Okhaldhunga

December 6

   

 
19

Khotang district

December 11, 12 and 13

  

  
48

Dailekh, Khotang, Udaipur, Rolpa and Dang districts

December 14

  

11
35

Aurahi in the Mohottari district and Biyako Lekh in the Dailekh district

December 15

  

 
15

Rolpa, Palpa, Ramechap, Kavre and Dhading districts

December 17

  

10
 

Dhankhola in the Kapilavastu district

December 25

  

 
16

Solokhumbu, Dhading, Dolakha Ramechhap, Okhalgundha, Rasuwa, Jhapa and Khoakharka districts

 

Fatalities in Major Clashes between Security Forces and Maoist Insurgents, 2002

Date

 Civilians
Security Forces  
Maoist Insurgents   
Place   

January 27

 

 

21

Sankranti Bazaar, Terhathum district

February 4

 

16
1

Bhakundebeshi police station, Kavre district

February 16

4
98
41

Sanphebagar airport, Accham district; Army barracks, Mangelsen town

February 20

 

 
46

Acham, Doti, Kailali and Dailekh districts

February 21

 

33
4

Sitalpati police station, Salyan district

February 21

 

 
37

Surkhet district

February 23

 

 
67

Kalikot district

March 13

 

6
 

Sanghachowk, 40km away from capital Kathmandu

March 17

 

 
69

Insurgents' training camp, Gumsa, Rolpa district

March 25

 

 
13

Rolpa

April 7

   

 
13

Kothiyaghat jungles, Bardia

April 11

 

84
150

Satbaria and Lamahi police outposts, Dang

April 14

  

  
17

Dang-Pyuthan border

April 27

 

 
18

Khotang

May 2

 

 
32

Dhagal, Dang-Kailali districts border

May 2-5

 

4
548

Maoist training camp, Lisne jungles

May 7-8

 

70
150

Security force base camp, Gam village, Rolpa

May 27

 

5
188

Security force base camp, Khara, Rukum district

June 12

 

4
51

Damachour, Salyan district

August 20

 

1
30

Thawang village, Rolpa

September 7

 

49
50

Bhiman police post, Sindhuli district

September 8

25
68
267

Sandhikharka, Argakanchi district

September 23

 

3
74

Rolpa

October 27

  

2
32

Rumjatar airport and district police office, Okhaldunga district

November 14

3
37
55

Jumla district

November 14

   

23
63

Gorkha district

November 22

   

 
50

Thulo Kavre, Lamjung district

November 24

 

 
50

Lamjung district

December 29

 

 
25

Salyan, Surkhet, Dailekh and Rasuwa districts.

 

In a high profile terrorist act, the Maoists on March 13, 2002, shot dead six police personnel detailed for the security of Taranath Ranabhatt, the Speaker of Nepal, 40 kilometers from the capital Kathmandu, but the Speaker’s vehicle was not in the convoy. In another high profile attack, the house of the former Chief of Staff of the RNA, Garud Shumsher J.B. Rana, was targeted on January 25, 2002, in Bara district, southern Nepal. The senior-most SF personnel killed by the insurgents was Armed Police Force Inspector General Krishna Mohan Shrestha, who was shot dead at Pattan, in the Kathmandu Valley, on January 26, 2003.

Along with major political parties, the Maoists too opposed King Gyanendra’s move to transform himself from a constitutional monarch to an executive monarch on October 4, 2002. The King’s decision gave the Maoists some political advantage— albeit inadvertent — to press for the protection and consolidation of gains accruing as a result of the restoration of democracy in 1990 into a common political agenda.

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