The environment
of peace that had been established in Nepal in 2013 survived,
despite challenges, through 2014, with not a single insurgency-related
fatality on record. Significantly, since March 2000, when the
South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database commenced compiling
data on insurgency-related fatalities in Nepal, it was in 2013
that the Himalayan Nation did not record a single insurgency-related
fatality during the course of a year, for the first time, and
remained completely free of insurgency-related violence. At its
peak in 2002, the insurgency saw 4,896 persons, including 3,992
Maoists, 666 Security Force (SF) personnel and 238 civilians,
killed in a single year.
The successful
holding of elections for the second Constituent Assembly (CA)
on November 19, 2013, have, in some measure, transformed the political
environment of the country and diminished violent inter-party
clashes. As against 22 such clashes resulting in four deaths and
167 injuries in 2013, no such clashes were reported through 2014.
However, intra-party
conflict continues to haunt the country. The fissures within the
Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M)
brought the party almost to the brink of a break-up.
Supporters of both Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda
and former Prime Minister (PM) and former Vice-Chairman Dr. Baburam
Bhattarai clashed with each other on various occasions. In one
such incident, on April 28, 2014, two UCPN-M cadres loyal to Dahal
were seriously injured after cadres loyal to Bhattarai exchanged
blows at the opening ceremony of the Rasuwa District Convention,
following a heated debate over the duration of the political event.
Cadres from remote areas had demanded that the convention be concluded
on the day itself, arguing that they did not have enough money
for overnight accommodation. Further, the Mohan Baidya aka
Kiran -led faction of the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Baidya),
which abandoned the UCPN-M on June 19, 2012, split
further on November 24, 2014, after a splinter-group
led by party secretary Netra Bikram Chand submitted a letter to
the CPN-Maoist-Baidya Central Committee, announcing its intentions
to separate. Subsequently, on December 1, Netra Bikram Chand formed
a new party, styling itself as CPN-Maoist.
Meanwhile, the
people of Nepal returned a fractured mandate in the second CA
elections of November 2013, creating enormous obstacles even to
the smooth formation of a new Government, given the history of
acrimonious relations between the major political parties. Nevertheless,
a new Government was formed on February 9, 2014, when Nepali Congress
(NC) President Sushil Koirala became Nepal's 37th Prime Minister,
securing more than two-thirds of the votes in Parliament. Belying
all fears of a rolling crisis, NC and Communist Party of Nepal-Unified
Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) came together, along with members of
14 other parties and one independent, to constitute a new and
stable Government. NC and CPN-UML had emerged as the two leading
parties in the CA, with 196 and 175 seats, respectively, in the
601-member CA.
Regrettably, however,
the political class continues to fail to deliver the new Constitution,
even after over six years of the drafting process. The first CA
was constituted on May 28, 2008, with mandate to deliver the Constitution
by May 28, 2010. It was, however, dissolved on May 27, 2012, after
four extensions. The second CA was constituted on January 21,
2014, and it fixed the deadline for delivery of the Constitution
as January 22, 2015. This deadline has, again, been missed, with
little concrete advance in addressing the various contentious
issues that had stalled the drafting process in the past. These
unresolved issues principally include the form of government,
federalism, judiciary and the electoral system. Though some reports
claimed that the major parties had reached 'near consensus' on
issues relating to the system of governance, the electoral and
judicial systems, the parties remained at odds on federalism during
the last phases of discussions, before the pandemonium broke out
in Parliament. Bhattarai, in an interview published on February
4, 2015, remarked,
There is vast difference
between the idea of democracy of Congress [NC] and UML
[CPN-UML] and the idea of democracy of Maoists and other
new forces. The ruling parties are basically in favor
of liberal democracy, with its emphasis on majority rule,
periodic elections and multiparty competition. We are
not opposed to it. But we don’t think that is enough...
What we need is inclusive democracy... Thus the main battle
is between liberal democracy and new inclusive democracy...
We have been insisting there should first be genuine federalism,
which means the oppressed nationalities must get federal
states where their rights and identities are secure. This
is the definition of federalism around the world. The
kind of administrative re-division Congress and UML have
been talking about is not federalism... The other important
constitutional issue is proportional representation. If
we go back on this, as the ruling parties want to, it
will be death of inclusive agenda. We cannot compromise
on these two issues...
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NC Central Working
Committee member Dr. Shekhar Koirala, on January 19, 2015, similarly
noted that the persisting disagreements are related to the name,
boundaries, and number of States.
Not surprisingly,
Nepal is currently threatened by political turmoil. In a clear
manifestation of growing political volatility in the Republic,
opposition members of the CA, led by UCPN-M, vandalized Parliament
and attacked ruling party leaders and security staff, leaving
four security staff members injured, on January 20, 2015. Again,
on January 22, 2015, opposition CA members threw microphones and
shoes at the members of the ruling alliance. On this day, protests
also erupted across Nepal, in which several persons were injured
and a substantial quantum of property was damaged. In fact, as
the deadline for the Constitutional draft approached, protests
and bandhs (general strikes) became the order of the day.
Significantly, during one such bandh enforced by the
UCPN-M-led alliance, which turned violent in several parts of
the country, a protester, identified as Rajaram Jha (25), died
at Bhramarpurachok in Dhanusha District on January 12,
2015.
The violence inside
Parliament as well as on the streets was allegedly a response
to the ruling alliance’s attempt to pass the charter of the new
Constitution through majority vote, as no consensus could be reached.
The 10-party ruling alliance has the two-thirds majority in Parliament
that is needed to approve the Constitution, without the support
of the UCPN-M led opposition.
Violent protests
continue even now. The opposition alliance has also decided to
launch ‘phase-wise protests’ starting from February 11, 2015,
even as daily threats of "revolution" are issued. Bhattarai,
for instance, declared, "We believe the CA has of late been
hijacked by regressive forces. This hijacked CA functions more
like a Parliament. We believe there is a need for a new revolution
to convert this Parliament into Constituent Assembly. But if this
state of hijack does not end, history will take a new turn. The
oppressed and marginalized communities will once again revolt."
Political parties
in Nepal have shown little sagacity over the past years, keeping
Nepal teetering on the brink of enveloping disorders. There will
now be political pressure on Prime Minister Koirala to resign
on moral grounds, since the Constitution drafting deadline has
again been missed, a point conceded by NC Central Working Committee
member Dr. Shekhar Koirala. But this will do nothing to resolve
the enduring crisis in Nepal, as the electoral mandate would continue
to lie with the ruling alliance, and there would be no movement
forward to resolving the contentious issues of the elusive new
Constitution.
On February 3,
2015, Prime Minister Koirala asserted that the Constitution drafting
process would not stop because of threats, bragging and blackmail
by UCPN-M, and observed, "The UCPN (Maoist) will not get
public support if they quit CA and decide to go for protest. People
want development and political stability. They will not support
Maoists’ agenda.”
Indeed, the massive
turnout of 78.34 per cent in the CA elections of 2013 – far above
the record turnout of 68.15 per cent in the General Elections
of 1991 – demonstrate the overwhelming public aspiration for peace,
order and democratic governance, and any political formation betraying
popular will is unlikely to secure significant support. Nevertheless,
the persistent deadlock over the Constitutional draft can undermine
the surge
of optimism that followed the 2013 Election,
and will push the country towards increasing uncertainty.
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