Nepal, which had
seen 4,896 fatalities, including 3,992 Maoists, 666 Security Force
(SF) personnel and 238 civilians, in a single year at the peak
of insurgency in 2002, sustained the environment of peace that
had been established in 2013, through 2014 and 2015, with not
a single insurgency-related fatality on record. However, though
the insurgency has subsided, Nepal continued to witness significant
political violence through 2015.
The current cycle
of political violence began on July 1, 2015,
when agitating cadres of the United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF)
comprising of the Upendra Yadav-led Federal Socialist Forum-Nepal
(FSF-N), the Mahantha Thakur-led Tarai Madhes Democratic Party
(TMDP), the Rajendra Mahato-led Sadbhawana Party (SP) and the
Mahendra Raya Yadav-led Tarai Madhes Sadbhawana Party (TMSP),
burnt copies of the preliminary draft of the Constitution in the
capital, Kathmandu, as it failed to incorporate their demands.
During the first round of violence, between July 1 to September
19, 2015, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia
Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 44 persons, including
25 civilians and 19 SF personnel, were killed and another 229,
including 166 civilians and 63 SF personnel, were injured in violent
protests across the Tarai
region. In Surhket District, adjoining the
Tarai region, another two civilians were killed and 50 were injured.
Violence continued
subsequent to the adoption of the New Constitution on September
20, 2015, with nine civilians killed and another 414 persons,
including 321 civilians and 93 SF personnel, injured in violent
protests across the Tarai region, according to SATP data.
In adjoining Districts, one civilian was killed in Udayapur and
another was injured in Dhading District (all data till December
31, 2015).
Warning that the
current Tarai turmoil would create a ‘parallel’ economy in the
country, Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry
(FNCCI) President Pashupati Murarka during a Press meet on December
18, 2015, observed,
Tarai
protest led by some political parties for the last few months
has pushed the economic, social and education, among other
sectors, to a serious mode. Nearly 2,000 industries are
closed while materials worth billions of rupees have been
stranded on the other side of the border. The demurrage
charge on these materials is beyond our affordability.
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Speaking at the
same Press meet, FNCCI Vice President Shekhar Golchha emphasised,
“So far, some industries have managed to pay salary and wages,
while others have paid half. Now, they are feeling difficulty
to withstand such pressure.”
FNCCI estimates
that the Tarai turmoil and subsequent unofficial economic blockade
have resulted to economic losses to the tune of NR 200 billion.
Significantly, in fiscal year 2013-14, Nepal’s economic growth
stood at a six-year high of 5.2 per cent. In April 2015, the devastating
earthquake reduced the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
growth to 3.04 per cent. Now, because of protests in the Tarai
and blockade along Nepal-India border points, the economy is expected
to book a negative growth for the first time since 1983.
Worryingly, signs
of continued violence are very much in evidence. On January 2,
2016, SP Chairman Rajendra Mahato emphasized, “Fifty-five people
were martyred during Madhes agitation and hundreds of people were
injured. Hundreds of people are still in hospitals. As the Government
stepped up its repression, we have also stepped up our resolve
to fight for our rights.” Earlier, the Tharuhat Struggle Committee
(TSC), in a Press Release on December 24, 2015, had threatened
that if its demands were not met by January 14, 2016, it would
promulgate its own Constitution on January 15, 2016, guaranteeing
an autonomous Tharuhat province.
Separately, on
December 11, 2015, the Federal Inclusive Madhesi Alliance (FIMA),
which brings together the Sharat Singh Bhandari-led National Madhes
Socialist Party (NMSP), the Rajkishor Yadav-led Madhesi Janadhikar
Forum-Republican (MJF-R), the Anil Kumar Jha-led Nepal Sadbhawana
Party (NSP) and the Jay Prakash Prasad Gupta-led Tarai Madhes
National Campaign (TMNC), submitted a nine-point demand to the
Government. Warning that they would intensify their agitation,
FIMA leaders argued, on December 20, 2015, that the ruling parties
were not serious about seeking a negotiated settlement of issues
raised by Madhes-based parties.
Disturbingly, the
Netra Bikram Chand-led Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists (CPN-Maoists),
at a proclamation assembly organized in Butwal city of Rupandehi
District on January 3, 2016, declared the Rupandehi, Nawalparasi
and Kapilvastu Districts as the Abadh autonomous State. Warning
that if they were suppressed they would retaliate against the
Government, Politburo Member Santosh Budhamagar asserted, “Our
party was forced to revive the old structures as the Government
was unable to solve the people’s basic problems after India’s
blockade of Nepal’s border points.”
Significantly,
on June 30, 2015, Nepal’s second Constituent Assembly (CA) constituted
on January 21, 2014, accepted the preliminary draft of the Constitution.
Though it faced strong opposition, the CA went ahead, and in a
historical
step forward, endorsed “Nepal’s Constitution”
with an overwhelming two-thirds majority on September 16, 2015.
The new Constitution with 308 articles, 35 parts and nine schedules,
came into effect after President Ram Baran Yadav announced its
commencement at 17:00 hrs on September 20, 2015, during the last
meeting of the CA. The first CA, constituted on May 28, 2008,
with a mandate to deliver the Constitution by May 28, 2010, was
dissolved on May 27, 2012, after four extensions. While the adoption
of the new Constitution was welcomed by most national and international
groups and leaders, a large segment of the population, particularly
the Madhesis and Tharus residing in the Tarai region, contested
the new Constitution.
To end the political
logjam, the three major political parties held a meeting with
the UDMF at the Prime Minister's official residence at Baluwatar
in Kathmandu on January 3, 2016, and put forward a proposal to
form a Joint Taskforce to finalize a roadmap to an agreement with
UDMF. On January 5, 2016, UDMF formed a three-member task force
including Hridayesh Tripathi, Vice-Chairman of TMDP, Rajendra
Shrestha, Co-Chairman of FSF-N and Ram Naresh Yadav, senior leader
of TMSP, to hold talks with the Government on its 11-Point
demand. The prominent demands included delineation
of autonomous provinces based on historical background and identity
in accordance with the Interim
Constitution; ensuring a separate article
with the clear provision of proportionate inclusion for marginalized
communities; proportionate inclusion in all state organs; and
determination of population-based constituencies for the election
of House of Representatives and mixed electoral system as provisioned
in the Interim Constitution. Crucially, on January 7, 2016, a
meeting of two taskforces formed by the three major parties and
the agitating UDMF concluded on a positive note in Kathmandu.
After the meeting, Rajendra Shrestha, Co-Chairman of FSF-N and
a task force member of UDMF, observed that it is for the first
time the representatives of the major parties dwelled on UDMF’s
11-point demands and termed it a positive development.
Earlier, in order
to discuss the issues of the agitating Madhesis, coalition partners
Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) and
Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M)
held the first three-party meeting with the main opposition Nepali
Congress (NC) on November 4, 2015, at Prime Minister K.P. Sharma
Oli’s residence in Katmandu. Prime Minister Oli met the Madhesi
leaders for the first time on November 30, 2015. During the meeting,
the Madhesi leaders submitted their 11-Point charter of demands.
Subsequently, the
First Constitution Amendment Bill registered by previous NC-led
Government on October 7, 2015, was tabled in Parliament on December
15, 2015, and discussions on the Bill commenced on December 28,
2015. Though the deliberations were expected to conclude on December
31, 2015, parties decided to extend the process till January 3,
2016, in the hope of reaching an agreement with the agitating
Madhesi parties. Thereafter, with no consensus emerging, the Parliament
was adjourned till January 13, 2016, as Speaker Onsari Gharti
Magar was going to see her ailing husband, UCPN-Maoist leader
Barshaman Pun, in Bangkok, Thailand.
Meanwhile, the
Government launched a campaign, ‘People's Constitution among People'
on December 7, 2015, in a bid to make people aware about the new
Constitution. The campaign was extended on January 5, 2016, until
February 4, 2016, as its continuation was demanded at local levels
and the programme was yet to cover some Tarai and Hill Districts.
As part of the campaign, various interactions were held in around
80 per cent of all District headquarters, municipalities and Village
Development Committees (VDCs).
In order to prevent
further delays on the Constitution Amendment on the basis of proportionate
inclusion ensured by the Interim Constitution, the Nepal Bar Association
(NBA), after the meeting of the 43rd NBA Executive
Council held in Lalitpur District on December 11, 2015, urged
Parliament and the political parties to hold a dialogue with agitating
Madhes-based parties and to settle issues related to citizenship
as well. Similarly, Dr. Mahendra Bista, Chairman of the Federation
of Nepali Journalists (FNJ), speaking at an interaction programme
on hardships of Tarai-based journalists organized in the Simara
town of Bara District on January 4, 2016, noted, "The issues
should be resolved through the medium of talks and dialogue, and
media should play positive roles for this to happen."
Indeed, the promulgation
of new Constitution on September 20, 2015, was a historic step
forward, but the crisis in the Tarai has created a logjam that
is enormously damaging the country, not only materially, but also
socially and politically, exacerbating ethnic polarization and
anger. 113 days have passed since the promulgation of the Constitution,
and the ruling establishment has not been able to convince the
people of the southern plains that it addresses their concerns
and is not discriminatory. The country has gone through a long
and arduous struggle to arrive at the present Constitution, but
if ethnic polarization persists, and present trends towards radicalization
deepen, the hard won peace could be compromised. Leaders across
the political spectrum need to tone down their current polarizing
rhetoric and address the legitimate grievances of various population
segments.
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