Though the insurgency
has ended in Nepal, political violence continued through 2016.
However, not a single insurgency-related fatality was recorded
in 2016, and this has been the case since 2013, with not a single
insurgency-related fatality on record. At the peak of insurgency,
Nepal had seen 4,896 fatalities in 2002 alone, including 3,992
Maoists, 666 Security Force (SF) personnel and 238 civilians.
Political
violence, on the other hand, has escalated
since July 1, 2015, when cadres of the United Democratic Madhesi
Front (UDMF), a four party alliance of the Madhesi People's Rights
Forum Nepal (MPRF-N), Tarai Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP), Sadbhavana
Party (SP) and National Madhes Shadbhavana Party (NMSP), burnt
copies of the preliminary draft of the new Constitution in Kathmandu,
the Capital city, because it failed to incorporate their demands.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism
Portal (SATP), six persons, including five civilians and one
Security Force (SF) trooper, were killed and another 16, including
13 civilians and three SF personnel, were injured in violent protests
across the country in 2016. In 2015, at least 57 persons, including
38 civilians and 19 SF personnel were killed and another 700,
including 544 civilians and 156 SF personnel, were injured in
violent protests.
Of late, on January
3, 2017, the Legislature-Parliament meeting was postponed till
January 8, 2017, as the main opposition party, the Communist Party
of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), had been obstructing
the meeting since the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist
Centre)-led Government, registered
a seven-point Constitution Amendment Bill at the Parliament Secretariat
on November 29, 2016, to address the concerns of Madhes-based
parties. The Constitution had been adopted in a historical
step on September 20, 2015. The most significant
aspect of the Amendment Bill was the proposal to leave only six
Districts, Nawalparasi, Rupandehi, Kapilbastu, Dang, Banke and
Bardiya, in Province 5, excluding the six hill Districts of Palpa,
Arghakhanchi, Gulmi, Rukum, Rolpa and Pyuthan, to add them to
Province 4. The proposed Amendment provides for two Madhes dominated
Provinces: Province 2 and Province 5, as demanded in the 11-point
demands of the UDMF. Province 2 was already
Madhes dominated. The Bill also seeks to amend the Constitutional
provisions pertaining to citizenship, provincial border, and proportional
representation, among other aspects.
On December 1,
2016, CPN-UML blocked Parliamentary proceedings, terming the Constitution
Amendment Bill anti-national. Further, on December 13, 2016, a
joint meeting of eight political parties, including CPN-UML, Communist
Party of Nepal-Marxist Leninist (CPN-ML), Rastriya Janamorcha
(RJ), Nepal Workers and Peasants' Party (NWPP), Nepal Parivar
Dal (NPD) Nepa Party (NP), Janamukti Loktantrik Party (JLP) and
Madhesi Samata Party (MSP), decided to continue the ‘House obstruction’
and intensify their protests until the Bill was withdrawn. Threatening
not to let Parliament endorse the Constitution Amendment Bill
at any cost, CPN-UML Chairman K.P. Sharma Oli, while addressing
a mass rally of opposition parties at Exhibition Road in Kathmandu
on January 6, 2017, asserted, “The UML will not allow through
Parliament any proposal which is against the national interest.
Rest assured that the national interest will not be let down as
long as the UML is there.”
Separately, the
agitating Madhesi parties to meet other demands
had expressed their own demands. National Madhes Socialist Party
(NMSP) General Secretary Keshav Jha, expressed serious dissatisfaction
over the possible number of local units in the Terai, declaring,
on December 20, 2016, “The Madhes-based parties can settle for
at least 46 percent of local units in the Terai Districts. We
are not saying the number should be directly proportionate with
the population. We can consider four to five percent for geography;
otherwise population should be the major factor for fixing the
number of local units." Worse, warning of secessionist forces
that would rise in the country if the Constitution Amendment move
and federalism failed, SP Chairperson Rajendra Mahato observed,
on January 1, 2017, “As Constitution amendment is a must to address
the concerns of Madhesi communities, it must happen at any cost
for the welfare of the large community (sic).” Further,
on January 3, 2017, Mahato added “The delineation of the provinces
as it is in the Constitution works against the will of the Madhesi
and indigenous people here. The UML has been a prime hindrance
in our attempt to correct it through an amendment. It is only
fair to kick the UML out from the Madhes, since it has been restricting
the Madhesis in their own ground.”
Meanwhile, at a
time when the main opposition party, CPN-UML, is piling pressure
on the Government to withdraw the Bill, Prime Minister Pusha Kamal
Dahal aka Prachanda on December 7, 2016, argued, “The UML
will realize its mistake of starting protests against the Bill
that seeks to unify hills, mountains and plains; and further strengthens
the national unity and geographical indivisibleness.” Reaffirming
the Government’s stand, Deputy Prime Minister Bimalendra Nidhi
added on December 30, 2016, “The UML stance on the Constitution
Amendment Bill is against democracy, the parliamentary system
and constitutional norms. I would like to urge UML to back down
from its stance.”
In order to end
the ongoing Parliamentary stalemate, Speaker Onsari Gharti Magar
gave a three-day ultimatum on December 29, 2016, to secure a consensus,
disclosing, “The parties have informed me that they are close
to consensus. I have given them a time of three days so that they
can have more serious discussions.” The Speaker also warned that
the Parliament would follow set procedures to resume its business
if the parties failed to clear the way. Moreover, in order to
ensure that the Legislative applied its collective wisdom in the
formulation of legislation on the basis of the principle of separation
of powers, the Supreme Court (SC), on January 2, 2017, cleared
the decks for the Government to endorse the Constitution Amendment
Bill.
While no consensus
could be reached within the Speaker’s deadline, the SC’s ruling
has cleared the path to take the Bill forward in the House. On
January 8, 2017, the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist
Center)-led Government tabled the Constitution Amendment Bill
amid protests from opposition party lawmakers. Earlier, Nepali
Congress (NC), CPN-Maoist Center and UDMF, during a tripartite
meeting held at the Prime Minister’s residence in Kathmandu on
January 5, 2017, consequently decided to table the Constitution
Amendment Bill at the Parliament meeting scheduled for January
8, 2017. The parties also agreed that the Government would receive
the Local Bodies Restructuring Commission (LBRC)’s report at the
earliest and move ahead for local, provincial and federal elections.
The holding of
three elections – local, provincial and federal – by December
2017, as envisaged in the new Constitution, is another challenge
confronting Nepal. The last time local elections were held in
the country was some 19 years ago, in 1997. Since then, the local
bodies – Village Development Committees (VDCs), municipalities,
District Development Committees (DDCs) and Metropolitan Councils
– have been without people’s representatives. Significantly, on
January 6, 2017, the Local Bodies Restructuring Commission (LBRC)
submitted its 1,718-page report in 16 volumes, to Minister of
Local Development Hitraj Pandey in the presence of Prime Minister
Dahal, recommending four Metropolitan Cities – Kathmandu, Chitwan,
Lalitpur and Kaski Districts – 12 Sub-Metropolitan Cities, 241
municipalities, 462 village units and 719 local units with 6,553
VDCs. The report was a milestone as far as the implementation
of the Constitution and federalism was concerned. The commission,
which has two more months left do its work before it expires on
March 13, 2017, will prepare blueprints of special clusters and
autonomous zones according to the Terms of Reference (ToR) given
by the Government.
Another dilemma
for the present Government is the issue of transitional justice.
Resolving outstanding transitional justice issues through the
Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) and Commission of Investigation
on Enforced Disappeared Persons (CIEDP) was one of Dahal’s proclaimed
priorities when he was sworn as Prime Minister on August 3, 2016.
TRC had started recording testimonies regarding insurgency-era
rights’ violations and crimes from April 17, 2016, at District
Peace Committee Offices in all 75 Districts, and has received
57,753 complaints from victims of the insurgency. Similarly, CIEDP,
the commission formed to investigate conflict-related disappearances
cases, which started receiving complaints on April 14, 2016, has
received over 2,800 complaints from those whose kin had disappeared
during the 10-year insurgency. Herculean tasks lie ahead for TRC
and CIEDP, to establish the truth, investigate violations of human
rights and make recommendations for action, as the terms of the
transitional mechanisms expire on February 10, 2017. Moreover,
on November 26, 2016, TRC Chairman Surya Kiran Gurung and CIEDP
Chairman Lokendra Mallick accused the Government of weakening
the two bodies by not providing legal and financial support. TRC
and CIEDP were formed on February 10, 2015, in the spirit of the
Interim
Constitution of 2007 and the Comprehensive
Peace Agreement (CPA) of November 12, 2006,
to probe instances of serious violations of human rights and find
the status of those who were disappeared in the course of the
armed conflict between the State and the then Communist Party
of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist) from February 13, 1996, to November
21, 2006.
Earlier, at a time
when the victims and international human rights agencies were
urging the Government to bring the Transitional Justice Act on
par with international standards, five Maoist parties – New Force
Nepal led by Baburam Bhattarai, CPN-Revolutionary Maoist led by
Mohan Baidya, CPN (Maoist) led by Matrika Yadav and Revolutionary
Communist Party Nepal led by Mani Chandra Thapa, besides then
Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M)
led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal – in a joint statement on April 21,
2016, called on the then KP Sharma-led Government to scrap conflict-era
cases, claiming that such cases violated the Comprehensive Peace
Accord (CPA) of 2006. Further, on
May 19, 2016, ten Maoist parties, at a joint convention in Kathmandu,
united
to form a new force under former rebel commander Pushpa Kamal
Dahal, to give birth to what they decided to call the Communist
Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist Centre). Addressing the
function organized to announce the unification, Chairman Dahal
declared, “The days of conspiracy against the revolutionary agenda
of republic, secularism and proportional representation are over.
This unification is a message loud and clear that the days of
people’s victory are here. This unification guarantees that the
transitional justice mechanisms will function in line with the
Comprehensive Peace Agreement.”
The Dahal-led Government
is facing a possible crisis, as the Constitution Amendment Bill
requires at least a two-thirds majority vote in Parliament. As
the main opposition party CPN-UML and seven other parties object
to the Amendment, it is uncertain whether the Bill can secure
passage through Parliament. Moreover, despite the establishment
of transitional justice mechanisms, impunity for violations committed
both during the conflict and in the post-conflict era remains
entrenched in the country’s political culture. It remains to be
seen whether Nepal is able to reconcile the demands of political
stability and continuity, on the one hand, and of justice for
war era excesses, on the other, to establish an enduring constitutional
and political order that will meet the demands of equity and governance.
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