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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 1, No. 41, April 28, 2003
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Peace Process:
A Little Arm-twisting
Guest Writer: Jehan
Perera
Media Director, National Peace Council of Sri Lanka
If the sudden
decision, announced on April 21, 2003, by the Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
to pull out of the peace process caught most observers by
surprise, it was because they had failed to heed the direct
and indirect warning signals. The direct warning signals
came from the LTTE, which had expressed its unhappiness
at being left out of the international donor conference
in Washington on April 14. But ironically, the indirect
warning signals came from the satisfaction of the Sri Lanka
Government that it had achieved success at the same Washington
aid conference from which the LTTE had been barred. Up to
the time of the Washington meeting, the Government and the
LTTE had made joint appeals to the international community.
By stating that it was suspending the peace talks and would
not be attending the donor aid conference in Tokyo scheduled
in June, the LTTE has sought to apply a maximum of pressure
on the Government. It is aware that the Government is banking
a great deal on the Tokyo conference, to revive the economy
and offer a substantial peace dividend to the people. The
consensual approach between the government and LTTE had
been the key factor in the mobilisation of international
aid to reconstruct the country. Any conflict between them
could lead to a weakening of this international support.
The LTTE has, however, also been careful in the statement
it issued regarding its decision to suspend its participation
in the peace negotiations, which was qualified by announcement
that it would continue with the peace process and
honour the ceasefire agreement. It is clear, consequently,
that there is no danger of the ceasefire collapsing and
war breaking out. Unfortunately, there is a considerable
apprehension among the people that the peace process is
indeed breaking down, and that this will be exploited by
opponents of the peace process. Thus, President Chandrika
Kumaratunga's decision to put the troops on high alert may
have been a legitimate use of her constitutional powers
as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, but it was also
given wide publicity by the media, and added to the agitation
of the people.
In the last couple of weeks the media had been giving mixed
messages regarding the peace process. On the one hand, there
is a focus on disruptions to the process, of which there
were many. Some of the most threatening incidents included
the sinking of an LTTE cargo vessel, suspected of carrying
arms, by the Sri Lanka navy, which resulted in the loss
of over a dozen LTTE lives on March 10. This was followed
by the brutal hacking to death of nearly 20 Chinese civilian
sailors on board a shipping vessel flying the Sri Lankan
flag, on March 20. More recently, between April 16 and 21,
there have been clashes in the multi ethnic eastern region
of the country, where there has been widespread violence
between Tamils and Muslims, with several hundred Muslims
fleeing their homes.
On the other hand, the media has also given prominence to
the remarkable success of the government in raising international
donor funding. The World Bank and IMF have together pledged
over USD 800 million in aid for the next three years, granting
Sri Lanka 100 percent of what it was able to receive. Government
spokespersons also spoke confidently of obtaining a total
of USD 1 billion for three consecutive years from donor
countries and multilateral agencies, exceeding all previous
fund raising efforts. But a perceptive observer would have
noted the absence of the LTTE from these claims of success
and anticipatory rejoicing.
Being invited to Washington for the donor meeting at a time
when the United States was focussed on the Iraq situation
was an undoubted triumph for the Sri Lankan Government.
But in seeking to project itself as having secured a great
success in order to pander to its voter base, the Government
has evidently alienated the LTTE. In the government's highly
publicised achievement in Washington, the LTTE may have
seen its future exclusion from other important events and
decisions; its belief in an equal partnership with the Government
has been sundered. The LTTE's action of pulling out from
the peace talks needs to be seen in this light.
In announcing its withdrawal from the peace negotiations,
the LTTE is making it clear that its cooperation is essential
if the Government is to attain its aid target. In fact,
by threatening to boycott the Tokyo donor conference, the
LTTE is also making the larger point that everything the
country has achieved in the course of the last 16 months
of peace is contingent on its cooperation. And indeed, the
government and the LTTE have been partners in making Sri
Lanka a unique and textbook case of a successful peace process,
at least, till this point. If this success is to continue,
so must that partnership.
In its letter of April 21 to the Government, the LTTE said,
"During the early negotiating sessions it was agreed that
the government of Sri Lanka and the LTTE should work together
and approach the international community in partnership."
There are, of course, difficult questions to be asked and
answered about the nature of this partnership. There are
partnerships that are equal and others that are not. There
could be equality in some aspects and inequality in other
aspects of a relationship. Where the ceasefire agreement
is concerned, the government and the LTTE are equals. They
were the two parties at war and without their joint collaboration
and commitment the war would not have ended.
On the other hand, when the LTTE agreed to a federal solution,
they recognised there would be only one central government
in Sri Lanka. Foreign governments and multilateral donor
agencies give their funds to the central government because
they can seek repayment from it. There is accountability
when dealing with a national government. Such accountability
is not possible with a militant organisation that has not
yet contested an election or formed an internationally recognised
government. The LTTE has to accept the reality that it will
not be treated as equal to the Sri Lankan government when
it comes to accessing international donor funding.
However, the LTTE's sense of being marginalised in the peace
process, especially during the Washington donor conference,
needs to be appreciated. The LTTE said, "We view the exclusion
of the LTTE, the principal partner to peace and the authentic
representatives of the Tamil people, from discussions on
critical matters affecting the economic and social welfare
of the Tamil nation, as a grave breach of good faith." The
LTTE is justified in feeling that it contributed in equal
part to the success of the peace process and it is unfairly
being left out at the end, when the rewards are being handed
out. The government should assure the LTTE that this would
not happen again, and that the LTTE will be an equal partner
in the rehabilitation and reconstruction of the north and
east. During the course of the war, the LTTE built up various
institutions of an administrative and military nature. There
is no denying the existence today of LTTE courts, police,
administrators, and army and navy. They are a de facto
reality. However, this is not the rule of law, and it is
important that the political negotiations should be speeded
up so that a final settlement is reached, at which time
democratic regional institutions can be put in place.
For its part, the LTTE needs to recognise the difficulties
it puts the Government into by some of its actions. It is
not acceptable behaviour by a partner to a peace process
to engage in a build up of it military strength by arms
smuggling over the seas, and by forcibly recruiting even
children into its armed ranks. The LTTE's human rights record
continues to be poor, and the organisation played a key
role in the Tamil-Muslim clashes that have forced hundreds
of Muslims from their homes. There is an ongoing campaign
of political assassinations of members of Tamil political
parties opposed to the LTTE. There are also credible reports
of LTTE prisons and torture camps to which no one, not even
the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), has
access.
In its statement explaining its reasons for withdrawing
from the peace talks, the LTTE has claimed that its exclusion
from the aid conference in the United States, the continued
suffering of the displaced Tamil people, the problems of
the heavy Army presence in civilian areas of the north and
east, and the lack of special attention to the economic
devastation of the north and east, are reasons that have
undermined its confidence in the negotiations. But the restoration
of normal life in the north and east that the LTTE avowedly
seeks, must apply to non-Tamils and to non-LTTE parties
as well. For Sri Lanka's peace process to succeed, and for
the country to be an example to the world, there is only
one appropriate basis for a successful and long term working
partnership. This is a commitment to transparency, human
rights and democracy. Both the Government and the LTTE have
a long way to go in their journey to such a partnership.
The Northeast:
Groping for Peace in a Policy Vacuum
Wasbir Hussain
Associate Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management, New
Delhi; Consulting Editor, The Sentinel, Guwahati
Yet another
separatist rebel group in India's Northeast has now confirmed
that it is engaged in peace negotiations with New Delhi.
General Secretary of the outlawed Achik National Volunteers'
Council (ANVC),
Wanding K. Marak, disclosed during a rare interaction with
the media last fortnight that his group had a meeting at
Bangkok in January with Intelligence Bureau (IB) Director
K.P. Singh and Mizoram Chief Minister Zoramthanga, who has
emerged as one of the region's key peace brokers. The rebel
leader also acknowledged the role played by former Speaker
of the Lower House of Indian Parliament (Lok Sabha) and
a veteran leader of the Garo tribe, P.A. Sangma, in acting
as a bridge between the Government and the ANVC, and in
preparing the ground for the talks.
Formed in December 1995, the ANVC is active in the Garo
Hills districts in western Meghalaya, on the border with
Assam and Bangladesh. The group is engaged in an armed struggle
for a separate Garo State (Achik land) comprising the Garo
dominated areas in Meghalaya and in adjoining Assam's Kamrup
and Goalpara districts. In a way, the ANVC is pursuing a
'greater Garoland' dream in much the same way as the Isak-Muivah
faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (NSCN-IM),
which has entered into a ceasefire agreement with the Indian
Government and is currently holding peace talks, and which
harbours plans for a 'greater Nagaland' by merging all Naga-inhabited
areas in the Northeast into a broader Naga homeland.
The Government keeping its doors open for peace negotiations
is fine, but it has, of late, been found that insurgent
groups in the region, many of them no better than ragtag
bands of armed men, have been successful in arm-twisting
both the Union and State authorities, to lend them the required
legitimacy by first declaring them 'unlawful organizations'
and then holding so-called peace talks with them. On November
16, 2000, within five years of its formation, the ANVC was
declared a banned organization by the Union Government in
accordance with the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act.
Till this time, the ANVC's list of violent activities included
killing a dozen policemen and looting cash amounting to
about one million rupees from banks in the area. Till last
year, police officials in Meghalaya sought to dismiss the
ANVC as an outfit that had, if anything, no more than a
nuisance value, but that did not constitute a significant
security threat. But, the group soon stepped up its attack
on soft targets, kidnapping people, including doctors and
engineers, for ransom and keeping up with the odd attacks
on policemen on duty. None of this, in any way, increased
the ANVC's threat potential. Then comes the confirmation
of the IB chief holding talks with leaders of the group
in Bangkok.
Arm-twisting as a strategy appears to have been perfected
by rebel groups in India's Northeast. The ANVC is now agitated
over the fact that the Union Government has not bothered
to take the talks forward after the January interaction
in Bangkok, suggesting that the ANVC was in bit of a hurry
to clinch some kind of a deal with New Delhi. What is surprising
is the group's stand that it would not enter into any ceasefire
agreement with the Government, even while it was talking
peace with it. ANVC leader, Marak, for instance, pointed
out that there was no truce between the Mizo National Front
(MNF) of legendary guerrilla leader Laldenga in Mizoram,
and the Indian Government, when the two sides were engaged
in peace negotiations in the mid-eighties. A small group
like the ANVC is perhaps aware of the fact that it could
disintegrate once it calls a truce with the authorities.
The question, however, is whether the ANVC is that dangerous
a rebel group that it should have been declared unlawful
in the first place within years of its formation, and whether
having the 'unlawful' stamp on it was, in fact, one of the
ANVC's objectives (or, for that matter, the goal of many
other rebel groups in the region), which could improve its
status and linkages with other more powerful rebel groups
with international connections, or even to keep its cadres
together. It is said that the NSCN-IM had initially backed
the ANVC while it was still a nascent group. The ANVC then
went on to establish links with the National Democratic
Front of Boroland (NDFB),
a separatist group fighting for an independent Bodo homeland
in western Assam. Now, however, the ANVC has severed its
ties with the NDFB and has slapped a quit notice to the
latter, asking its cadres to pull out from the Garo Hills
in Meghalaya after a bitter turf war.
Insurgent politics in India's Northeast seems to have fallen
into a pattern. Any ethnic group, however small it might
be, begins by encouraging the formation of a rebel group
that establishes links with bigger outfits. The group then
manages to procure access to weapons, launch a few noticeable
attacks, use the media to put across its so-called political
agenda and demands, catch hold of a peace broker and force
willing federal officials to travel to a neighbouring Southeast
Asian nation to talk peace. This is happening primarily
because neither New Delhi nor the State governments address
the grievances, fears and apprehensions of the ethnic groups
unless the demands are raised through the barrel of their
guns.
In February, the Indian Government signed an agreement with
the Bodo Liberation Tigers (BLT),
ending the agitation in Assam's Bodo heartland for a separate
State. The Bodos have been given an elective political-administrative
structure called the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC)
with 'maximum autonomy.' However, another Bodo rebel group,
the NDFB, remains recalcitrant, and continues with its demand
for an independent Bodo homeland, outside the Indian Union.
The NDFB has now also indicated that it is keen to enter
into negotiations with New Delhi. Similarly, two small rebel
groups, the Dima Halim Daogah (DHD),
active in Southern Assam's North Cachar Hills and a faction
of the United People's Democratic Solidarity (UPDS)
in the hills of Karbi Anglong, are in the 'peace mode' and
have entered into a truce with the government. Talks with
'big brother' NSCN-IM are already on, and the rival Khaplang
faction of the NSCN, too, is on the verge of joining the
peace process.
The issue is whether there is enough political space to
accommodate these groups and their leaders who have 'made
a mark' much sooner by their violent activities than most
mainstream political leaders can through years, if not decades,
of service among the masses. What has been created is, in
fact, a method that allows violent individuals and groups
to 'short circuit' the democratic process, putting those
who remain committed to the constitution and to lawful politics
at a distinct disadvantage. What is more, the proliferation
of groups also creates difficulties of accommodation where
rival rebel groupings seek to occupy and dominate the same
political space. Where, for instance, will New Delhi accommodate
the NDFB leaders and cadres in case, like the BLT, this
group also agrees to sign a peace deal and come overground?
Where will the NSCN-K fit in a peace agreement signed with
the NSCN-IM? Can New Delhi sign two or more peace accords
with rival groups to solve a single problem? And what of
the insidious impact on democratic political parties that
the increasing political role of ex-rebel factions inevitably
would have? It is time the Indian government formulated
a clear, coherent and internally consistent policy to deal
with insurgent groups, and put the brakes on the multiplicity
of internally conflicting 'peace processes' with all and
sundry groups that pass off as insurgent organizations.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major conflicts
in South Asia
April 21-27, 2003
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Civilian
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Security
Force Personnel
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Terrorist
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Total
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BANGLADESH
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8
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2
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0
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10
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INDIA
|
Assam
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5
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0
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3
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8
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Jammu
&
Kashmir
|
20
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16
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41
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77
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Left-wing
Extremism
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2
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4
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18
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24
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Manipur
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0
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1
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1
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2
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Tripura
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2
|
0
|
0
|
2
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Total (INDIA)
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29
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21
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63
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113
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NEPAL
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0
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0
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1
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1
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* Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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INDIA
Three
terrorists, two SF personnel killed in suicide
attack on Srinagar radio station: Three
terrorists and two security force (SF) personnel
were killed and eight others injured as a group
of fidayeen (suicide squad) attacked
the local station of All India Radio (AIR) in
Srinagar, capital of Jammu and Kashmir, on April
26, 2003. The suicide terrorists drove an explosive-laden
car towards the AIR station and later exploded
the same with a remote control. While one terrorist
and a SF personnel nearby were killed instantly,
two other terrorists, who reportedly got off
the car earlier took shelter in a mosque nearby
and began firing from automatic rifles. The
SF personnel guarding the complex returned fire
killing both the terrorists who had come out
of the mosque. Later, a spokesperson of the
Al Madeena Regiment called up a local news agency
and claimed responsibility for the attack. Daily
Excelsior, April 27, 2003.
14 terrorists killed in Poonch district of
Jammu and Kashmir: In a major counter-insurgency
operation, security forces (SFs) killed 14 terrorists
in the Surankote area of Poonch district on
April 22, 2003. An SF personnel was also killed
in the encounter. Official sources said that
the terrorists, including some 'commanders'
of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT)
and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM),
were engaged in "crucial parleys" in Hill Kaka
area, to intensify activities in the Pir Panjal
range. Most of the slain terrorists were reported
to be foreign mercenaries of the LeT and JeM.
Daily
Excelsior, April 23, 2003.
LeT, Jaish and HuM at forefront of terrorist
attacks in J&K, says British Premier Blair:
British Prime Minister Tony Blair has said
that the proscribed Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT),
Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM)
and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM)
have been at the forefront of "terrorist attacks"
in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and their violent
activities would only "prolong" the resolution
of the Kashmir issue. "During the last decade,
the nature of the conflict has changed as a
result of the armed incursions of militants
across of the Line of Control (LoC). Terrorist
organisations including LeT, JeM and HuM have
been at the forefront of terrorist attacks in
the restive state and violence will never resolve
the Kashmir issue, it will only get prolonged,"
he said in an interview to the Lahore-based
weekly Friday Times. Blair added that ending
infiltration is essential to stopping violence
in J&K. Daily
Excelsior, April 23, 2003.
NEPAL
Maoists
resume peace talks with Government: Maoist
insurgent leaders resumed peace talks
with the Government on April 27, 2003. Those
who participated in the talks included, among
others, Maoists leaders Baburam Bhattarai, Krishna
Bahadur Mahara and Ram Bahadur Thapa, and Government
negotiators, Minister for Physical Planning
Narayan Singh Pun and Communications Minister
Ramesh Nath Pandey. The Maoists had withdrawn
from the 'introductory talks' on April 21 demanding
discussions on 'substitutive issues'. The two
sides also nominated two persons each to act
as facilitators during the talks. A team of
both the sides would decide on the date and
venue of the next round of talks. Nepal
News, April 27, 2003.
PAKISTAN
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi
chief Akram Lahori sentenced to death: An Anti-terrorism
court in Karachi on April 26, 2003, sentenced to death Akram
Lahori, chief of the proscribed Sunni group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi
(LeJ),
and his two associates on three counts of sectarian murders.
The court further directed the three convicts to pay Rupees
200,000 each in compensation to the family of the victims for
"the mental anguish caused to them due to callous act committed
by the accused". Lahori and the two associates were arrested
in Karachi on June 29, 2002. Dawn,
April 27, 2003.
Support to terrorist groups in J&K continues, says CIA Director:
The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has said that Pakistan
continues to support terrorist groups in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K).
According to a media report, in a recent speech before the Senate
Intelligence Committee, CIA Director George Tenet has said that
even though India's recent military redeployment away from the
border reduced the danger of imminent war, the underlying cause
of tension is unchanged. Hindustan
Times, April 24, 2003.
SRI LANKA
LTTE withdraws
from peace talks: The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
said on April 21, 2003, that it is 'suspending' its participation
in the peace talks for the moment, but said it is firmly committed
to the peace process. In a letter to Premier Ranil Wickremasinghe,
LTTE chief negotiator and ideologue Anton Balasingham said the
LTTE has been compelled to make this 'painful' and 'regretful'
decision and called upon the Government to restore confidence
in the peace process. According to him, this could be achieved
by implementing, 'without further delay', the normalisation
aspects of the cease-fire agreement that was signed in February
2002. The LTTE also said that it has decided not to participate
in the forthcoming international donor conference due to be
held in Tokyo. Daily
News, April 22, 2003.
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The South
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terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare,
on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as
on related economic, political, and social issues, in
the South Asian region.
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