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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 2, No. 32, February 23, 2004
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Escalating Body-count
Guest Writer: Deepak Thapa
Kathmandu-based Journalist and Editor; author of Understanding
the Maoist Movement of Nepal
Six months after the ceasefire between the Government and
the rebel Communist Party of Nepal - Maoist (CPN-M)
broke down (on August 27, 2003), the fighting has bogged
down to a stalemate with neither side making any headway.
In the countryside, Government presence is still limited
to the district headquarters and a few armed garrisons.
And although the security forces - under the unified command
of the Army - have been making forays into areas outside
the secure zones, they have not been able to hold any territory
permanently. For its part, neither has the 'People's Liberation
Army' of the Maoists been able to prevent incursions by
Government troops into areas supposedly under their control.
This seesaw battle has come at a large human cost. Of the
almost 9000 people killed in violence related to the CPN-M-led
'people's war' begun in 1996, the outbreak of fresh fighting
since August 2003 accounts for almost a quarter: nearly
1500 people (ostensibly Maoists) have been killed by the
security forces; over 300 soldiers and policemen have lost
their lives; and civilian victims are also in the range
of 300. According to the human rights group, INSEC, the
rate of killings during this last stage has been a mind-boggling
12.2 per day, an escalation unparalleled in the eight years
of fighting.
Notwithstanding the military impasse, the Maoists are as
active as ever. In a defiant move in January, they began
creating 'autonomous people's governments' to correspond
with ethnic or regional homelands. Among these are the 'Magarant
Autonomous People's Government' in the Maoist heartland
of western Nepal, inhabited largely by Magars, the largest
ethnic group of Nepal; and the 'Madhesi Autonomous People's
Government' for the Tarai plains that stretch across the
southern part of Nepal. (Unfortunately for the Maoists,
a member of the former, Suresh Ale Magar, and the head of
the latter, Matrika Prasad Yadav, were arrested in India
on their way to a rally in New Delhi, and immediately handed
over to the Nepal Army.)
It seems clear from the two years of the Army's engagement
in the fighting that its role cannot go beyond containment.
The security forces have begun venturing into Maoist areas
in an apparent bid to counter the impression that Maoist
'governments' are at work in areas outside direct Government
control. But these actions have not been able to inflict
much damage on a guerrilla force that simply retreats in
the face of superior firepower; the military strength of
the Maoists remains pretty much intact.
The Government has tried to encourage desertions from the
rebel side under an amnesty plan, but in the two months
since the scheme was announced, fewer than 500 rebels have
taken up the offer. Also, in what appears to be a desperate
move, the Government is planning to experiment with setting
up village defence committees by arming villagers with basic
weapons; but it is facing an uphill task in this as a result
of severe criticism from within and outside the country.
The Government of Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa, appointed
in June 2003, is currently fighting on three fronts - the
Maoists; his own party, which wants him to quit; and the
alliance of five parties that want an end to the rule by
proxy by King Gyanendra through a handpicked Prime Minister.
The Opposition parties have been threatening to launch a
movement against the monarchy itself, if the King does not
revert to being a constitutional monarch. Anti-government
rallies are routine, and the streets of Kathmandu ring with
anti-monarchy slogans, the likes of which have never been
heard before. But, instead of being conciliatory, the King
has made it very clear that he is not going to limit himself
within the boundaries laid out in the Constitution. Nepal
is bracing up for a new round of protests, as the political
parties re-think their agitation strategy.
The Maoist writ still runs largely throughout the country.
Bandhs (general strikes or shutdowns) called by them
are never defied. The most challenging was the three-day
bandh called in western Nepal to coincide with a public
felicitation of King Gyanendra in Nepalgunj in early February.
Despite the unprecedented security, the Maoists were able
to set off a few bombs in this regional centre, as well
as to ensure compliance of the people with their bandh order.
The countrywide shutdown on February 12, on the eve of the
9th anniversary of the 'people's war', was equally successful,
as was another on February 17 in the region around Kathmandu.
The fear psychosis is present everywhere. Although the Maoist
supremo, Prachanda, had given the undertaking that political
opponents would not be targeted, the Maoists have continued
with assassinations. This was underscored most forcefully
when the president of the Maoist Victims' Association, Ganesh
Bahadur Chilwal, was gunned down in downtown Kathmandu on
February 15. The Association had been at the forefront of
protests against the Maoists but, since the killing of the
president, three office-bearers have quit.
Maoist leaders had also warned, during the ceasefire, that,
should hostilities begin anew, Kathmandu would also be sucked
into the morass of violence. In the first few weeks after
the talks broke down, it was clear that the Maoists were
targeting the capital, but the attacks soon petered off,
mainly as a result of the security forces being able to
smash the Maoist network operating in Kathmandu. But the
Maoists have since regrouped, as is obvious from their renewed
activities. Explosions have rocked the heart of the city
and although casualties have been minimal so far, the threat
looms over the capital.
Apart from the bandh the day before, the 9th anniversary
of the 'people's war' on February 13 was peaceful enough.
That is a date that is etched deeply in Nepali public consciousness.
Last year, it was a different sentiment that greeted the
anniversary. A ceasefire had just been declared and the
various protest programmes of the Maoists had been called
off. Peace seemed imminent and hopes soared high. One year
later, it is back to the killing fields in Nepal.
A Merchant Army
Guest Writer: Rahul Bedi
Delhi Correspondent, Jane's Defence Weekly
Besides ruling Pakistan and controlling its nuclear, defense
and foreign policies, the military is also that country's
largest and most profitable business conglomerate. This
is at least part of the reason why its stranglehold over
the country's politics and its vested interests in the nation's
continuous militarisation, will not cease. Pakistan, it
is useful to recall, expends over a third of its annual
budget on the Defense, and its military has historically
defined the country's direction and destiny through periods
of both democratic and military rule, to the detriment of
civil governance.
Today, nearly 1,200 serving and retired military officers
- mostly from the army - run a web of banks, transport,
road building, communication and construction businesses
worth billions of dollars, which comprise the Army's commercial
empire.
More specifically, the 'Fauji' or solider foundations also
own and operate a private airline, countrywide transport
corporations, hundreds of educational institutions, power
plants, steel, fertilizer and cement factories, and even
produce consumer goods like sugar, electronic items and
breakfast cereals. Some of these commercial operations have
also been directly involved in gun-running and drug smuggling,
generating huge hidden resources for Pakistan's campaigns
of terrorism and subversion in Afghanistan and India.
Security sources disclose that personnel drawn from these
Foundations worked with the Inter Services Intelligence
Directorate (ISID) and the extremist Islamist organizations
training, arming and motivating Mujahideen cadres to fight
the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan through the 1980's.
A few years later they raised and installed the Taliban
in Kabul, providing the Islamic militia financial and logistic
support till it was displaced by the US in 2001.
Analyst Satish Kumar who edits India's National Security
Annual Review said the Pakistan Army is not only the largest
real estate owner, but also the country's 'biggest' commercial
player. "It is not just a defense force, but a ruling class
oligarchy with substantial economic interests to safeguard"
Kumar stated, adding that it is unlikely that the military
will relinquish this role in the foreseeable future.
Military juntas have ruled Pakistan directly for more than
for half its life after independence in 1947, appropriating
large tracts of hugely expensive urban land at throwaway
prices to establish grandiose housing colonies. During Pakistan's
erratic experiments with democracy, the Army headquartered
at Rawalpindi, the garrison town adjoining the capital Islamabad,
has exercised thinly veiled control over the civilian administrations,
significantly strengthening its financial empire. Pakistani's
joke that if every serving and retired military officer
protects his own property, their country would be one of
the best defended in the region.
The Army's business interests broadly fall into three categories:
those controlled directly by the Chief of Army Staff; the
formalized military sector, like ordnance and state-owned
armament factories managed by the defense ministry; and
the four 'charitable trusts' (Fauji Foundations) that operate
autonomously like private corporations in which serving
and former Servicemen run factories and manufacturing units
producing a range of goods and services.
The first group includes the National Highway Authority
(NHA) and Frontier Works Organisation (FWO), each headed
by a two-star General; and the Special Communications Organisation
amply supported by the Signal Corps and the National Logistics
Cell that operates a significant, if seldom discussed, country
wide trucking operation.
Aided by the Army Engineering Corps, the army's road building
conglomerate constructed the precipitous Karakoram Highway
in the 1980's connecting Pakistan to military and nuclear
ally China, besides laying down roads across the country.
And while the Communications Organisation, working with
the Signals Corps, wires up the country, especially Pakistan-administered
Kashmir to the mainland, the Logistics Cell is possibly
the army's most profitable operation.
Established by Pakistan's former dictator, General Mohammad
Zia-ul-Haq in the late 1970's, the Cell's trailer trucks
would pick up armaments and ordnance, including assault
rifles and Stinger missiles, the Soviet Union's eventual
bete noire in Afghanistan, from the southern port city of
Karachi.
These armaments were offloaded from ships chartered by America's
Central Intelligence Agency, which backed Kabul's 'unholy
war' against Moscow. These convoys ferried their lethal
cargo to the North West Frontier Province and neighbouring
Balochistan, bordering Afghanistan, to Mujahideen groups
fighting the Soviet Army.
After 1996, this massive fleet of trucks, controlled mostly
by Pashtun tribesmen, was effectively used by the Inter
Services Intelligence (ISI) Directorate to supply the Taliban
with weapons, fuel and food. The trucks and their plucky
drivers played a major role in establishing Taliban control,
an operation that has been only sparsely documented.
Intelligence sources said these trailers also transported
heroin from numerous laboratories in several of the tribal
Agencies along the Pakistan-Afghan border to various cities
like Karachi, from where the narcotic makes its way to the
West. Pakistani sources reveal that the heroin-loaded convoys
were provided unprecedented security and were rarely, if
at all, checked en route.
But the Fauji or Solider Foundation, the largest industrial
conglomerate with an annual turnover of $ 500 million and
profits of over $ 41 million is the 'jewel' in the Army's
crown. Headed by a three-star General, it provides ' womb
to tomb ' facilities for nearly nine million retired servicemen
that include re-settlement and re-employment schemes in
military-run cement, power, fertilizer and sugar factories.
It also grants retired soldiers land in villages along the
line of control (LoC) strung across Pakistan's eastern frontier
with India, providing the disturbed region with a trained
reservoir of manpower in the event of hostilities. Having
retired soldiers in the border regions also makes it easier
for the Pakistani Army to infiltrate armed militants across
the LoC into Kashmir to fuel the ongoing insurgency.
The Army Welfare Trust, managed by General Headquarters
(GHQ), employs around 6,000 former soldiers and runs the
Askari Commercial Bank, one of Pakistan's most profitable
Banks. Like his predecessors, the Chief of Army Staff General
Pervez Musharraf who also doubles as President, heads the
Bank 's governing board, which comprises senior officers.
The Trust runs around 25 other projects worth around Rs.
17 billion ($ 354 million).
Former Pakistan Air Force officers run the 26-year old Shaheen
Foundation, with an annual turnover of Rs. 600 million,
that operates Shaheen Airways, the country's profitable
and only 'private' airline. Naval officers are in-charge
of the Bahria Foundation that manages around 20, mostly
civilian, projects also at great profit.
This is, at least in part, why the Pakistani Army is reluctant
to make way for a civilian administration. Its economic
and, by extension, political interests lie in perpetuating
the bazaar they control. Beyond internal supervision,
moreover, there is no public accountability for the moneys
the Army controls. Worse, private enterprise and overseas
investment is also hostage to military diktats. Though Pakistan's
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has, over the past year, registered
a six per cent growth, this has mainly been due to the inflow
of American money funnelled to Islamabad for its 'help'
in the global war against terrorism, or other financial
relief packages from international lending institutions.
This is an aspect that strategists need to take into account
while dealing with 'Pakistan PLC'.
Manipur: Rebels
in Top Gear
Wasbir Hussain
Associate Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management, New
Delhi; Consulting Editor, The Sentinel, Guwahati
Northeast India's Manipur State is virtually under siege,
as heavily armed rebels escalate their campaigns of intimidation
and violence. During the past fortnight, rebels have announced
the award of 'capital punishment' to a Lok Sabha Member
of Parliament (MP) from the State; bombed the residence
of a Minister; ambushed a Superintendent of Police who was
on patrol on a road over which the State Chief Minister
was to pass; and accused a Minister and his brother of swindling
Government development funds to the tune of Rs. 1.5 million.
The rebels' sway in this frontier State of 2.3 million people
can be gauged from the fact that as many as five insurgent
groups active in the Imphal Valley, dominated by the majority
Meitei community, are in the Indian Ministry of Home Affairs'
(MHA) list of proscribed organizations under the Prevention
of Terrorism Act (POTA):
the Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP),
Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL),
People's Liberation Army (PLA),
People's Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK),
and the United National Liberation Front (UNLF).
Besides, at least nine other rebel groups are active in
Manipur, making the State Northeast India's rebel heartland.
The turn of events in the past few weeks has reinforced
the near total collapse of state authority in Manipur. Thounaojam
Chaoba Singh, Lok Sabha MP and the Bharatiya Janata Party's
(BJP) Manipur unit president, was awarded the 'death sentence'
by the KYKL for his alleged 'activities' against the rebel
group during the 1999 parliamentary election campaign. On
January 29, 2004, the KYKL asked the State BJP to expel
Singh by February 15 or be prepared to 'face action.'
Singh's response to the rebel move was both surprising and
representative of the general state of insecurity in the
State. He went public to seek 'pardon' from the KYKL and
urged the rebel group to 'reconsider its decision' on the
award of 'capital punishment.' According to media reports,
he urged the KYKL 'to excuse him for any incident that had
taken place before the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, which might
have caused harm or hurt the sentiments of the KYKL.' While
seeking pardon, Singh, however, made it clear that other
party leaders in the State had no powers to remove him from
the post of the State BJP president, and that they were
all 'innocent.'
The very fact that Singh, despite being an MP from the BJP
that heads Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's ruling
coalition at Delhi, had chosen to assuage the 'hurt feelings'
of a rebel group by seeking forgiveness, goes to indicate
that a vast section of people who matter in Manipur have
no faith in the capabilities of the State Government to
protect their lives.
On its part, the beleaguered State Police hurriedly put
in place some additional security cover around Singh and
advised him against avoidable public appearances. The MHA,
according to the State's acting police chief, C. Peter,
had sent in express instructions to the Manipur Government
to provide Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) cover to
the BJP MP, a directive that has been complied with. Bhorot
Singh and three other BJP MLAs in the State have also been
provided extra security guards. Such steps are, of course,
routine precautionary measures that the authorities draw
up from time to time, and would be normal under circumstances
of an enhanced threat perception.
That the rebels increasingly call the shots in the State
is illustrated further in an unprecedented event in August
2003, when a top Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officer,
I.S. Laishram, then the State's Revenue Commissioner, surrendered
himself to the KYKL. The outfit had asked Laishram to surrender
by September 10, 2003, and face 'trial' for alleged corruption
during his tenure as Education Commissioner. Earlier, in
March 2003, suspected Kuki rebels waylaid the two-vehicle
convoy of Chandel Deputy Commissioner T.K. Singh and kidnapped
him after disarming his eight security guards without any
resistance.
On February 15, 2004, suspected UNLF rebels attacked the
residence of Food and Civil Supplies Minister Ph Parijat
Singh in Imphal, the State capital. No one was injured as
the grenade failed to explode. Parijat Singh later claimed
that the UNLF had demanded Rs. three million from him. Manipur's
acting police chief Peter told this writer that the UNLF
has sought between Rs. Two and Three million from some ministers
in the State. Rebels making extortion demands on ministers
and the ministers themselves admitting to having received
such demands are unheard of in the rest of India.
Groups like the KYKL, formed in 1994 with an aim, among
other things, of purging Manipuri society of its evils,
including the drug menace, have succeeded in securing the
confidence of sections within the State's civilian population
largely because of the prevailing corruption in the Government
machinery and the lack of direction in the State due to
political instability. The PLA has similarly embarked on
moves to clamp down on corruption and other social ills.
The masses appear to be fed up with the absence of good
governance and lend tacit support to the rebels' action
against those accused of corruption.
The Government too takes the rebel charges seriously. On
February 18, 2004, the outlawed PLA charged State Family
Welfare Minister Bijoy Koijam and his younger brother of
swindling Rs. 1.5 million out of funds allocated by the
federal Government for some population control schemes.
Within less than 24 hours, Manipur Chief Minister O. Ibobi
Singh convened an emergency meeting of his Cabinet and directed
the Chief Secretary, the highest-ranking bureaucrat in the
State administration, to conduct a probe to ascertain the
truth.
A weak and seemingly apathetic police force, crippled by
political interference, is another reason for this state
of affairs. The inability of the State Police to nab the
culprit behind the killing of eight-year-old Elizabeth Lungnila,
daughter of Francis Ngazokpa, a minister in the Ibobi Cabinet,
in November 2003, is a case in point. Ultimately, it were
the rebels of the Isak-Muivah faction of the National Socialist
Council of Nagalim (NSCN-IM),
another rebel group operating in the Naga-inhabited hill
areas of Manipur, who captured the main accused and is currently
threatening to announce a verdict on him in accordance with
the Naga customary laws!
In fact, Manipur is the only State in India's insurgency-wracked
Northeast where a state police force had mutinied in recent
years. In December 2000, an estimated 1,000 personnel belonging
to the Manipur Rifles staged a 'guns down' stir to press
the State Government to clear their arrears in their salaries.
Manipur's then Police Chief, S. Grewal, is on record stating
that the agitation by the Manipur Rifles had affected anti-insurgency
operations in the State. The Manipur Rifles personnel, the
backbone of the State's law and order machinery, have been
demanding outstanding arrears of salary, due to them since
1996, leading to the unprecedented 'guns down' protest in
2000.
It is not surprising that Chief Minister Ibobi Singh cannot
easily leave his base in Imphal these days. For instance,
he did not attend a crucial meeting of the North Eastern
Council (NEC), the regional planning body, at Shillong,
capital of Meghalaya, last week. His Government was engaged
in putting fire-fighting measures in place to get some respite
from the rampaging insurgents, who, unlike many of their
counterparts in the Northeast, are far from ready to talk
peace.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts
in South Asia
February 16-
22, 2004
  |
Civilian
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorist
|
Total
|
BANGLADESH
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
4
|
INDIA
|
Assam
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
Jammu
&
Kashmir
|
14
|
2
|
19
|
35
|
Left-wing
Extremism
|
5
|
0
|
0
|
5
|
Manipur
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
Tripura
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Total (INDIA)
|
20
|
4
|
22
|
46
|
NEPAL
|
8
|
9
|
86
|
103
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
|
INDIA
1,000
former
BLT
cadres
to
be
recruited
into
paramilitary
forces:
The
Union
Ministry
of
Home
Affairs
has
reportedly
decided
to
recruit
1,000
surrendered
Bodo
Liberation
Tigers
(BLT)
cadres
into
the
paramilitary
forces.
While
550
cadres
would
be
recruited
in
the
Border
Security
Force
(BSF),
300
and
150
would
be
recruited
into
the
Central
Reserve
Police
Force
(CRPF)
and
the
Assam
Rifles,
respectively.
Sentinel
Assam,
February
18,
2004.
People's
Conference
pulls
out
of
All
Parties
Hurriyat
Conference:
The
Jammu
and
Kashmir
People's
Conference
(PC)
on
February
17,
2004,
broke
away
from
the
Abbas
Ansari
faction
of
the
separatist
All
Parties
Hurriyat
Conference
(APHC)
as
its
Working
Committee
favoured
Sajjad
Lone
as
Chairman
and
expelled
his
elder
brother
Bilal
Lone
from
the
basic
membership
of
the
party.
The
wife
of
slain
PC
founder
Abdul
Gani
Lone
is
reported
to
have
favoured
Sajjad
while
alleging
that
Bilal
was
being
"taken
for
a
ride"
by
the
former
Hurriyat
chairman
Abdul
Gani
Bhat.
Addressing
a
press
conference
at
the
PC
headquarters,
Sajjad
Lone
said
that
the
22-member
Working
Committee
had
unanimously
favoured
Bilal
Lone's
expulsion
from
the
basic
membership.
He
also
said
that
the
PC
executive
council
also
decided
to
withdraw
from
the
APHC
faction
led
by
Maulvi
Abbas
Ansari.
Meanwhile
on
the
same
day,
the
People's
Political
Front
(PPF),
one
of
the
participants
in
the
January
22
Union
Government-APHC
talks,
pulled
out
of
the
dialogue
process
while
alleging
that
the
Government
was
not
serious
about
the
talks.
The
PPF
would
not
participate
in
the
talks
till
there
was
a
perceptible
change
in
the
ground
situation
in
Jammu
and
Kashmir,
PPF
spokesperson
Mohammad
Musadiq
said
in
a
statement
after
a
meeting
of
its
executive
committee
in
Srinagar.
Daily
Excelsior,
February
18,
2004.
NEPAL
Insurgency
toll
crosses
ten
thousand:
The
Home
Ministry
spokesperson,
Gopendra
Bahadur
Pandey,
said
that
approximately
10,000
people
have
lost
their
lives
during
the
course
of
insurgency
in
the
last
eight
years.
Speaking
at
the
daily
media
briefing
in
Kathmandu
on
February
20,
2004,
Pandey
stated
that
1,122
police
personnel,
372
Royal
Nepal
Army
soldiers
and
172
Armed
Police
Force
(APF)
personnel
were
killed
during
this
period.
Over
6600
Maoists
were
killed
in
the
offensives.
He
further
disclosed
that
1,175
civilians
lost
their
lives
in
the
last
eight
years.
This
year
alone,
1,674
people
lost
their
lives
including
259
civilians,
130
policemen,
129
army
soldiers
and
56
APF
forces
whereas
1,100
Maoist
guerrillas
were
killed
in
security
operations.
Nepal
News,
February
21,
2004.
At
least
60
Maoists
killed
during
encounter
in
Kalikot
district:
At
least
60
Maoist
insurgents
are
reported
to
have
been
killed
during
an
encounter
that
began
on
February
16,
2004,
in
the
Kalikot
district.
The
SFs
also
reportedly
encircled
around
1,000
insurgents
in
the
area
with
Army
helicopters.
Nepal
News,
February
18,
2004.
PAKISTAN
Islamist
extremists
set
ablaze
nine
schools
in
Gilgit:
Unidentified
persons
are
reported
to
have
set
ablaze
a
school
in
the
Diamer
district
of
Gilgit
in
the
Northern
Areas
of
Pakistan
on
February
20,
2004,
raising
the
number
of
damaged
schools
to
nine.
According
to
Daily
Times,
the
schools
were
either
set
ablaze
or
bombed
since
February
16.
In
the
latest
incident,
a
community
girls'
school
was
burnt
down
in
the
Thore
valley
of
Diamer,
160
kilometers
south
of
Gilgit
causing
no
injuries,
said
police
official
Zahir
Khan.
Police
is
guarding
200
community
schools
being
run
under
the
Social
Action
Programme
and
funded
by
the
World
Bank
to
prevent
further
incidents,
added
Khan.
Meanwhile,
an
unnamed
official
of
the
Northern
Areas
Home
Department
said
that
these
incidents
were
occurring
due
to
a
decline
in
enrolment
in
seminaries
and
an
increase
in
Government
schools.
He
said
that
the
area
was
under
the
influence
of
Islamist
extremists
who
felt
threatened
about
losing
their
support
base
in
the
district.
Daily
Times,
February
21,
2004.
Country
could
be
ostracized
internationally
for
terrorist
links,
warns
President
Musharraf:
President
Pervez
Musharraf
warned
on
February
18,
2004,
that
Pakistan
could
be
ostracised
internationally
if
it
did
not
address
global
concerns
that
it
was
a
hub
of
terrorism
and
was
involved
in
nuclear
proliferation.
"A
movement
should
be
launched
against
terrorism
and
extremism,"
he
said
at
a
conference
of
Islamic
scholars
in
Islamabad.
The
President
also
said
that
Pakistan
could
face
international
sanctions,
an
attack
on
its
tribal
region,
close
to
the
Afghan
border,
and
even
on
its
nuclear
assets
if
it
failed
to
change
its
image.
"We
could
face
serious
consequences
if
we
don't
play
our
cards
right…
If
this
impression
that
terrorism
is
continued
from
Pakistan
...then
they
would
themselves
start
bombing,"
said
Musharraf.
He
indicated
that
the
military
regime
had
told
tribal
elders
to
hand
over
foreign
suspects
hiding
in
the
region.
"If
you
surrender
them,
you
will
not
be
handed
over
to
any
other
country.
It
is
my
promise,"
he
added.
On
nuclear
proliferation,
he
said
that
"Our
vital
national
interest,
our
nuclear
and
missile
programme...
could
be
harmed
physically…
We
have
to
assure
the
world
that
Pakistan
is
a
responsible
nation
and
was
neither
involved
in
the
illicit
proliferation
of
nuclear
capability
(at
present)
nor
in
the
future."
Dawn,
February
19,
2004.
India
and
Pakistan
reach
agreement
on
framework
for
talks:
India
and
Pakistan
reached
an
agreement
on
February
18,
2004,
on
a
framework
for
talks
on
bilateral
issues
including
Kashmir,
terrorism
and
nuclear
weapons.
Indian
Foreign
Secretary
Shashank
and
his
Pakistani
counterpart
Riaz
Ahmad
Khokhar,
according
to
a
joint
statement,
endorsed
the
agreement
worked
out
at
the
Joint
Secretary-Director
General
level
dialogue
held
in
Islamabad
on
February
16
and
17.
They
also
decided
that
their
Foreign
Secretaries
would
hold
talks
on
peace
and
security,
including
Confidence
Building
Measures
(CBMs)
and
Jammu
and
Kashmir,
in
May
or
June
2004.
In
July,
talks
would
be
held
on
issues
such
as
Siachen,
Wullar
Barrage/Tulbul
Navigation
Project,
Sir
Creek,
terrorism
and
drug-trafficking,
economic
and
commercial
cooperation,
and
promotion
of
friendly
exchanges.
The
joint
statement
further
said
that
a
meeting
between
the
Director-General
of
the
Pakistan
Rangers
and
the
Inspector-General
of
the
Indian
Border
Security
Force
would
be
held
in
March
or
April
while
talks
on
nuclear
CBMs
are
scheduled
for
the
latter
half
of
May.
The
discussions
on
drug
trafficking
and
smuggling
have
been
set
for
June.
The
Foreign
Secretaries
would
meet
for
one
day
ahead
of
the
two
Foreign
Ministers'
meeting
in
August.
Daily
Times,
February
19,
2004.
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