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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 2, No. 4, August 11, 2003
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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The 'Peace' Carnival
Ajai Sahni
Editor, SAIR; Executive Director, Institute for Conflict
Management
From despair
to euphoria to despair has been the classical cycle in India's
'search for peace' in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). It has been
the season for euphoria again since Prime Minister Atal
Behari Vajpayee's April 18, 2003, speech at Srinagar, where
he once again offered 'a hand of friendship' to Pakistan.
Since then, there has been a rising crescendo of symbolism
culminating in the current and extraordinary jamboree at
Lahore, where a delegation of more than 30 Indian Members
of Parliament (MPs), with a veritable media circus in tow,
are presently grabbing headlines.
To much international applause - within the limited circles
in which these developments are noticed - various 'confidence
building' measures have been initiated over the past months,
and others are proclaimed, including the resumption of the
infamous bus to Lahore that had ferried the Indian Prime
Minister to his first deluded engagement with Pakistan -
which culminated in the Kargil War in 1999. Taking advantage
of the resumption of road links between the two countries,
a number of Pakistani children with severe cardiac disorders
have come to India and have (with one sad exception) been
successfully operated on, once again, to the immense applause
of the media. A young Pakistani boy who strayed across the
border into Indian territory in the State of Rajasthan is
currently in Delhi, preparing to be returned to his home
in a 'goodwill gesture', even as both countries announce
the imminent release of several hundred 'fishermen' in their
custody for straying into hostile territory - traditional
hostages to competitive South Asian cussedness. Official
delegations have also met to discuss improved trade relations
between the countries.
Shortly after Vajpayee's April 18 speech, a small delegation
of Pakistani MPs had visited India, taking advantage of
the absence of visa requirements for Members of Parliament
from member countries of the South Asian Association for
Regional Cooperation (SAARC), though they received relatively
little attention - and no one of note in Government met
them.
However, when Maulana Fazlur Rahman - the leader of the
six party fundamentalist combine, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal
(MMA), and Chief of the Jamaat-e-Ulema Islam (JUI) Pakistan;
the mentor of the Taliban
and of a succession of terrorist groups, including the Harkat-ul-Ansar
(HuA),
the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM)
and the Harkat-ul-Jehad-e-Islami (HUJI);
a 'personal friend and advisor' to both Mullah
Omar and Osama
bin Laden; and a notorious US baiter - came to
India in mid-July, he was feted by all who mattered and
welcomed and embraced by the Prime Minister himself. The
Maulana has, with India's Laloo Prasad Yadav - the former
Chief Minister of the Eastern State of Bihar, notorious
for the anarchy into which he has led his State, for the
corruption charges as a result of which he was forced to
demit office, and for his inveterate clowning for the media
- been among the most prominent attractions at the Lahore
jamboree as well.
Rahman has become something of a poster-boy of the new 'peace
process', and it is interesting to examine the logic of
his unexpected transformation from a leading architect of
terrorism to eminent peacenik. At both Delhi and Lahore,
Rahman articulated his reasons clearly: US 'hegemony' was
the more immediate threat, and a rapprochement with India
was necessary to create the breathing space necessary to
ensure that the 'unilateral action against the people of
Afghanistan and Iraq' was not repeated against Pakistan.
There is, in this tactical shift, no indication that the
Maulana's strategic agenda and commitment to 'jihad'
has undergone any radical transformation. The incurable
optimist would do well to note that, even as he preaches
a new 'tolerance' for 'Hindu India', Rahman's MMA has sought
to impose a Talibanised Sharia code on the people of the
North West Frontier Province (NWFP) through its legislature;
it is from this province that a regrouped Taliban has been
organizing attacks into Afghanistan against troops loyal
to the Hamid Karzai regime at Kabul, and against American
Special Forces hunting the Al
Qaeda and Taliban
remnants in the border areas; and it is, again, in Quetta
in the MMA dominated province of Baluchistan, that the Taliban
is reported to be openly operating. It is significant, moreover,
that when he was asked by the media in Delhi whether he
considered bin Laden a terrorist, he responded evasively,
"Why are you raising this issue… We have come here for a
different purpose. We are talking of peace and you are raising
irrelevant issues."
The point, then, is that, despite the unrestrained enthusiasm
of the current 'peace process' - as was the case with past
'peace processes' between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir
issue - there is little room for optimism, and the ground
situation in J&K is the evidence that needs to be examined
more carefully than the media posturing of dubious political
bandwagonners.
Each cycle of the 'peace process' in J&K has ordinarily
been accompanied by escalating violence, and the present
phase has been no exception. Despite an exceptionally harsh
winter this year, the total fatalities due to terrorism
in the first seven months of the current year, at 1,438,
have been only marginally lower than they were in 2002 (1,694).
More significantly, the trends show a sharp increase since
April 2003, and in June, total fatalities this year (235)
substantially exceeded last year's figure (170). There has
been a succession of high profile terrorist attacks after
the Prime Minister's speech, and these include the fidayeen
attack on the Border Security Force sector headquarters
at Madar in the Bandipore area of Baramulla district on
April 25; the April 26 fidayeen attack on the All
India Radio station at Srinagar; the beheading of four women
and two children at village Chowkian in the Kot Dhara area
of Rajouri district on May 19; the fidayeen attack
at the Dogra Regiment camp in Sunjwan on the outskirts of
Jammu city, in which twelve Army soldiers were killed on
June 28; and the July 22 fidayeen attack at the Army camp
at Bangti on the Tanda Road in Akhnoor district, in which
eight soldiers, including a Brigadier, were killed, and
12 others, including four top Generals, were injured. The
terrorist enterprise in J&K is manifestly alive and well.
At the same time, a number of Pakistani propagandists, including
President and General Pervez Musharraf himself, have been
arguing that 'peace talks' do not have to wait till the
killing ends (those who follow the discourse on West Asia
and Palestinian terrorism will note a familiar ring in this),
and India appears now to have accepted this logic, despite
the Prime Minister's earlier stand that 'cross border terrorism'
and Pakistan's 'proxy war' in J&K must first end before
any meaningful dialogue could commence between the two countries.
Once again, Pakistan appears to have secured concessions
even while it makes none - at a time when it is under enormous
international pressure to shut down the terrorist infrastructure
on its soil, and when it desperately needs breathing space
to consolidate its increasing dominance along its Northwestern
borders with Afghanistan.
A prominent Indian commentator notes that "India is the
only known country in modern history to have repeatedly
cried betrayal, not by friends, but by adversaries in whom
it had reposed trust." The present regime has already led
itself up the garden path on at least two occasions, and
it appears that it is now setting the country up for another
and greater deception.
Nagaland: Disturbed State, Ceasefire
Notwithstanding
Animesh Roul
Research Associate,
Institute for Conflict Management
Despite
the relatively calm environment and repeated appeals by
both Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio and the National Socialist
Council of Nagalim - Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM),
Nagaland was declared a 'disturbed area' for a further period
of one year, commencing July 22, 2003, under section three
(3) of the Armed Forces (Assam and Manipur) Special Powers
(Amendment) Act, 1972, by the Union Government. According
to the official notification, the whole state is in a dangerous
condition, and the use of armed forces in aid of civil power
is necessary. Opinions differ on the issue, but the declaration
was certainly a setback to the Nephiu Rio led Democratic
Alliance of Nagaland (DAN) Government and the NSCN-IM leadership.
In a complete u-turn on his Government's position, addressing
the Nagaland Assembly, State Home Minister T.M. Lotha justified
the disturbed area notification on the grounds that, since
the DAN government came to power on March 2003, and up to
July 18, some 83 persons had been killed in 'insurgency
related incidents or through criminal activities'
in the State. There is a certain fudging of data here, and
according to data
compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal, between January
and August 10 this year, the total number of insurgency
related deaths stood at just 17, including 13 terrorists,
three security force personnel and a lone civilian in Nagaland.
It is only by clubbing 'criminal activities' with the numbers
relating to insurgency that Lotha arrives at the relatively
alarming figure of 83 - and criminal (as opposed to terrorist
or insurgent) violence has never been basis for the imposition
or extension of the 'disturbed area' status under the Special
Powers Act. There is, of course, a very thin line between
criminal and terrorist acts in the State, with the insurgents
running widespread networks of extortion and abduction for
ransom, but the fact is that insurgency related violence
has substantially decreased in Nagaland since the NSCN-IM
leadership's New Delhi sojourn in January 2003, followed
by the State Legislative Assembly elections and subsequent
confidence building measures taken up both by the Union
and State Government with the rebel outfits.
Earlier, Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio had asserted, during
his March 17 meeting with the Prime Minister in New Delhi
immediately after his assumption of power, that the two
warring factions of the - the NSCN-IM and the Khaplang faction
(NSCN-K)
- were strictly observing the ceasefire 'ground rules'.
Rio's Government is believed to have collusive ties with
the NSCN-IM and was overtly trying to engineer a reconciliation
between the NSCN-IM and the NSCN-K to take the current 'peace
process' forward. There was, consequently, a very significant
turnaround after the Union Government's decision on the
extension of the Special Powers Act, which has been continuously
enforced in the State since 1995. Thus, Home Minister Lotha
stated during the Budget Session of the Assembly that there
had been 'many instances' of violation of the ceasefire
ground rules by the underground factions, while accepting
the oppositions claim that the law and order situation has
deteriorated in the State.
The truth is, there is a continuous record of ceasefire
violations by the NSCN factions, who run extensive extortion
and abduction operations, and are often involved in internecine
violence. The NSCN-K, for instance, was reported on January
7, 2003, to have been providing shelter and training to
at least seven terrorist groups of the Northeast at its
bases in Myanmar. During the Legislative Assembly elections
in February 2003, there had been repeated reports of gun-wielding
NSCN-IM cadres moving freely outside their 'designated camps'
in violation of the ground rules. On Election Day itself,
Security Force (SF) personnel shot dead an NSCN-IM cadre
and arrested another two, recovering an AK-47 rifle, a 9mm
pistol and two country-made revolvers, in Kohima. Again
on April 24, another major violation came to limelight when
SF personnel arrested three senior NSCN-IM cadres from the
insurgent group's 'town command headquarters' at Khushiabli,
outside its designated camp at Seothekemia in Dimapur district,
along with a huge cache of arms and ammunition. Armed cadres
of both the factions are reported to be currently camping
in and around Longleng subdivision in Tuensang district,
creating fear among local inhabitants.
Contesting Home Minister Lotha's claims, however, the NSCN-IM
leadership, on July 31, 2003, vehemently denied the accusations,
claiming that the ceasefire ground rules were being followed
strictly. The increasing incidence of extortion has, nevertheless,
been confirmed, as the group responded to such charges by
declaring that this was the collection of "legal taxes".
Similarly, the group claimed that factional clashes did
not come under the purview of the ceasefire ground rules.
Shortly after this war of words, two NSCN-Khaplang terrorists
were abducted and later killed in the outskirts of Kohima
on August 2, 2003, in renewed factional clashes.
During the Bangkok meeting on July 16-18, 2003, NSCN-IM
leader Thuingaleng Muivah had strongly conveyed to the Union
Government's interlocutor, K. Padmanabhaiah, that Nagaland's
disturbed area status should not be extended. The group
has been demanding the withdrawal of the legislation ever
since the Naga peace process began in 1997. This was the
only remaining condition set by the NSCN-IM leadership for
holding talks in India in November 2003. Though initial
expectations had been optimistic, eventually, the NSCN-IM
had be satisfied with no more than an extension of the ceasefire
with the Security Forces in Nagaland for another year beyond
July 31, 2003. NSCN-IM spokesman, Kraibo Chawang, also spoke
of a 'dirty trick' played by New Delhi, and the Convener
of the NSCN-IM's ceasefire monitoring group, Phungthing
Shimrang, expressed doubt over the 'real intention' of the
Union Government in imposing 'Martial Law', even as the
ceasefire was extended.
The extension of the Disturbed Area Act has aroused widespread
opposition in a wide spectrum of political opinion in the
State, undermining confidence in the possibility of any
dramatic success in the ongoing 'peace process'. Secretary
General Chubatemjen of the Nagaland People's Front (NPF),
the major constituent party of the DAN Government, issued
a statement after a joint meeting of the NPF working committee,
declaring that the extension of the Disturbed Areas Act
would not help in solving the vexed Naga problem. Even the
subdued Naga National Council (NNC) has threatened that
it might be forced to 'take up arms, if the situation arises'.
NNC General Secretary Vizosielhou Nagi was critical of both
the ceasefire and the DAA, claiming that the Union Government
was playing the factions against each other to undermine
their organizational strengths. He also speculated that
nothing concrete would come out of the current peace process,
and the ceasefire would continue without any tangible results.
The NSCN-IM's bete noir, the Khapalng faction of the NSCN,
was also critical about the extension of the Disturbed Areas
Act, and was skeptical about the sincerity of both the Union
and the State Governments. The NSCN-K also charged the NSCN-IM
of 'conniving' with the Union Ministry of Home Affairs and
patronizing the United Naga Council to push for a settlement
that would 'balkanize the political map or territory of
the Nagas' by pressing for a South Nagaland State, comprising
the four Naga dominated districts of the Manipur, within
the framework of Indian Constitution.
Evidently, the presence and activities of insurgents from
both the NSCN factions remain a cause of serious concern
in Nagaland - as well as in some areas of neighboring States,
particularly Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh. It is, however,
equally clear that the Disturbed Areas status has also become
part of the political currency in the negotiating process
between the Union Government and the NSCN-IM, and that the
decisions relating to its extension can no longer be expected
to be based on objective assessments of the situation on
the ground.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major conflicts
in South Asia
August 4-10, 2003
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Civilian
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorist
|
Total
|
BANGLADESH
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
3
|
INDIA
|
Assam
|
0
|
0
|
5
|
5
|
Jammu
&
Kashmir
|
16
|
5
|
33
|
54
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Left-wing
Extremism
|
10
|
1
|
11
|
22
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Manipur
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
Meghalaya
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Tripura
|
3
|
0
|
1
|
4
|
Total (INDIA)
|
29
|
7
|
53
|
89
|
NEPAL
|
0
|
5
|
0
|
5
|
* Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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BHUTAN
Three
ULFA terrorists and four unidentified attackers
killed in clash in Bhutan: According
to a British Broadcasting Corporation
(BBC) report of August 4, 2003, unidentified
gunmen attacked two hideouts of the Indian
terrorist group, the United Liberation Front
of Asom (ULFA),
at Kinzo and Babang in Samdrup Jongkhar
district and three ULFA terrorists and four
attackers were killed. Samdrup Jongkhar
district officials and a member of the ULFA's
'publicity department' Rubi Bhuyan have
reportedly confirmed these attacks. Meanwhile,
Indian authorities maintain that the attacks
occurred as a result of the infighting within
the group. However, ULFA has alleged that
Indian security agencies were behind the
attacks. BBC,
August 4, 2003
INDIA
Chief
co-ordinator of Lashkar-e-Toiba
killed in Jammu and Kashmir: Manzoor
Zahid Chowdhary, 'chief coordinator
(operations)', of the Lashkar-e-Toiba
(LeT),
who allegedly masterminded the attack
on Akshardham temple in Gujarat
(September 24, 2002), the Nadimarg
massacre of 24 Kashmiri Pandits
on March 24, 2003, and many fidayeen
(suicide squad) attacks on security
forces, was killed during an encounter
in the Chadoura area of Budgam district
on August 8, 2003. Deputy Inspector
General (DIG) of the Border Security
Force (BSF) Kashmir Frontier, K.
Srinivasan, told the media that
Manzoor had sent two terrorists,
namely Haafiz and Abdul Hawal, from
Srinagar for the attack on Akshardham.
Manzoor had reportedly also confessed
before his death that a Lashkar
'commander', namely Abu Ma'z, had
planned and executed the massacre
of 24 Kashmiri Pandits in Nadimarg.
Daily
Excelsior, August
9, 2003.
Villagers lynch nine PWG Naxalites
in Jharkhand: Nine Left Wing
extremists - Naxalites - of the
People's War Group (PWG),
including two women and an 'area
commander', were lynched by residents
of the Lango village under the Dumaria
police station-limits in the East
Singhbhum district of Jharkhand
on August 8, 2003. The Naxalites
were reportedly chased and beaten
to death with sticks, axes, sickles
and bows and arrows. Times
of India, August
9, 2003.
Seven Dawood Ibrahim gang members
accused in plot to kill Deputy Premier
acquitted by Mumbai court: A
sessions court in Mumbai, Maharashtra,
on August 4, 2003, acquitted seven
alleged members of the Pakistan-based
underworld don Dawood Ibrahim's
gang, who were arrested earlier
on the charges of a conspiracy to
kill Deputy Prime Minister L.K.
Advani and waging war against the
state, saying that the prosecution
had failed to prove the charges.
Indian
Express , August
5, 2003.
NEPAL
Third
round of talks likely to be
held this week, confirms Government
spokesperson: While speaking
to the media on August 6, 2003,
Government spokesperson and
member of the peace talks team,
Kamal Thapa, confirmed that
the third round of talks with
the Maoist insurgents is likely
to take place next week. However,
he gave no definite dates for
the same. Thapa also said that
prior to the formal talks the
two sides would also hold an
informal meeting at which the
agenda for the next round of
talks would be discussed. Nepal
News , August
7, 2003.
PAKISTAN
Three Pakistanis
among 11 persons indicted in US for planning Jehad against India:
The United States has formally indicted 11 citizens, including
three Pakistanis, for allegedly planning to launch a Jehad against
India. The accused - including, Pakistanis Masud Ahmad Khan,
Khawja Mahmood Hassan and Mohammed Atique - have reportedly
been charged with "being part of a conspiracy to do violent
Jihad against a friendly nation, India." Seven of them are accused
of visiting Pakistan to receive weapons training at a Lashkar-e-Toiba
(LeT)
camp. Two are also accused of firing at Indian soldiers in Jammu
and Kashmir (J&K). Randall Ismail Royer, allegedly the group
leader, according to the indictment, used his public relations
skills to recruit others for terrorist activity in J&K. Dawn,
August 10, 2003
Military regime has denied basic human rights in PoK, alleges
JKLF: Shabir Choudhury, Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front
(JKLF)
leader, has accused the Pakistan Government of denying basic
human rights to the people in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK).
In his address at the 55th session of the United Nations sub-commission
on the promotion and protection of human rights, Choudhury reportedly
said, "the life of two million people in northern areas has
been made hell by Pakistan which is treating the region as an
occupied land." While terming the areas as "the last colony"
after the British rule, he alleged that, "Basic human rights
are being denied and unfair treatment is meted out to the people...
No opportunity is given to the people even to express their
grievances." He also added that the area known as the Northern
Areas of Pakistan is not a Pakistani territory and is a part
of the Indian State of Jammu and Kashmir and its real name is
Gilgit and Baltistan. Daily
Excelsior, August 7, 2003.
Freezing of Al-Rashid Trust's accounts held illegal by Sindh
High Court: The Sindh High Court on August 4, 2003, set
aside an order of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) under which
accounts of the Al-Rashid Trust (ART)
with the Habib Bank Ltd. (HBL) were frozen on grounds that the
ART was funding Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups. The court
ordered the unfreezing of the accounts and directed HBL to honour
ART's cheques and make payments according to their tenor. The
court, however, reportedly observed that the Federal Government
is free to initiate proceedings and exercise any power that
might be available to it for dealing with the petitioner's accounts.
The ART had filed the petition against freezing of its one rupee
and two foreign currency accounts by HBL on September 25, 2001,
on the directives of the SBP. Jang,
August 5, 2003.
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Fatalities in Terrorist Violence
in Nagaland, 2003
|
Civilian
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorist
|
Total
|
January |
0
|
1
|
4
|
5
|
February |
0
|
0
|
4
|
4
|
March |
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
April |
1
|
2
|
1
|
4
|
May |
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
June |
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
July |
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
August* |
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Total |
1
|
3
|
13
|
17
|
* Data till
August 10
Source: Computed from English language media in
India. |
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The South
Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that
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terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare,
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on related economic, political, and social issues, in
the South Asian region.
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and the
South
Asia Terrorism Portal.
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