SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 3, No. 31, February 14, 2005

INDIA

Naxalites: The Economy at Risk
Nihar Nayak
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

"We will come back soon." This was the message left in Telugu by the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) activists after their attack on the 9th Battalion of the Karnataka State Reserve police (KSRP) camp on the night of February 11. Six police personnel and a civilian were killed and five others injured when an estimated 300 Naxalites (Left Wing extremists), including some 50 women, attacked the KSRP camp with hand grenades, bombs and AK 47 assault rifles at Venkammanahalli under Pavagada revenue division of Karnataka's Tumkur district 130 kilometers from the State capital, Bangalore. The Naxalites took away 10 self-loading rifles, while six unexploded bombs and some grenades were subsequently recovered from the compound. A landmine was also spotted by a police rescue team at Kyatacherlu, an adjacent village, under a bridge on the main road leading to the spot where a tractor had been parked to block the security force (SF) movement. After the Naxalites exchanged fire with the police at Venkatammanahalli in April 2003, a platoon of the KSRP has been deployed in Tumkur as the extremists were frequenting the border villages.

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The attack came five days after the police shot dead a top Naxalite leader, Saketh Rajan, and his associate in the Kallugudde forests in Chikmagalur district on February 6. Interestingly, the Chief Minister of Karnataka, Dharam Singh, had ordered an investigation into Rajan's killing after human rights activists charged the police with faking the encounter.

Over the past five years, Naxalite activities have increased in the districts surrounding Bangalore city - India's 'Silicon Valley'. Both Tumkur and Kolar districts share borders with Andhra Pradesh, and are situated to the North and East of Bangalore, respectively. The Naxalites have been active in both districts since the 1980's. They also have a strong presence in the Pavagada taluk (revenue division), 130 kilometers from Bangalore, where leaders such as Yenti Muthyalappa and Kurubara Banadiah contributed to the growth of the movement.

To the West of the city, the Naxalites have increased their activities in the Malnad region of the Western Ghats, comprising five districts: Shimoga, Udupi, Chikmagalur, Dakshin Kannada, and Hassan. Though initial Naxalite activity was concentrated in Tumkur, Kolar, Bidar, Gulbarga, and Raichur districts, they have progressively extended their base in the Western Ghats. In June 2001, coordinated agitations by various organisations, including the Kudremukh Rashtriya Udyana Virodhi Okkuta, Karnataka Vimochana Ranga, and Nagarika Seva Trust, against the eviction of tribal people from the Kudremukh National Park (KNP) area helped the then People's War Group (PWG) to establish its base by taking up the cause of the tribal people. In addition to the park issue, 'exploitation' by the landlords was another issue that helped the Naxalites to expand their activities.

The southern part of Bangalore city shares its borders with the Dharmapuri district of Tamil Nadu, which has been under Naxalite influence for the past two decades. While the movement was substantially contained through the 1980's, it had regained strength by November 2002, when the authorities conducted a major crackdown. In addition to Dharmapuri, the Naxalites have a presence in at least another three districts in Tamil Nadu: Salem, Coimbatore and Madurai. On October 10, 2004, the Tamil Nadu Government had banned the PWG under the Criminal Law Amendment Act, 1908, in order to protect its territories from infiltration by extremist cadres from neighboring states such as Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Dharmapuri's strategic location appears to be a compelling factor in the Naxalites' choice of the district for their operations.

Following the killing of six of its policemen at Venkammanahalli, the Karnataka Government has identified 33 police stations across 10 districts in the State as "hyper sensitive and vulnerable" to attack by the extremists. Of these, 23 are spread across seven districts - Bidar, Gulbarga, Raichur, Bellary, Chitradurga, Tumkur and Kolar - which border Andhra Pradesh. Police Chiefs of these districts have been directed to declare a red alert in the areas within their jurisdiction and to fortify police stations. The remaining 10 police stations are spread across Shimoga, Chikmagalur and Udupi districts in the western part of the State.

The economic impact of the Naxalite rampage is potentially devastating. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, on a visit to Bangalore on February 12, expressed concern over the growth of Naxalite activities in the country and accepted that Left Wing extremism was gaining momentum in Central India. He noted, further, that these were the "areas where the greater part of India's mineral resources, hydroelectric and other resources are located". US Ambassador to India, David Mulford, recently expressed concern that the growing Naxalite violence in the country could hit the inflow of foreign investments in the country. Among India's southern States, Tamil Nadu tops the list for foreign direct investment (FDI), followed by Karnataka. Unsurprisingly, despite the hype about 'Cyberabad', Andhra Pradesh is not in the list of top five FDI destinations in the India. Karnataka, the second largest FDI recipient in the country, approved 934 FDI proposals worth Rupees 7,826 crore (Rs 78.26 billion) during the year 2003. However, it slipped to the fourth rank in 2004. If trend in the proliferation of violence continue, India's target of US$ 15 billion in FDI in the year 2005 may not materialize. On February 9, 2005, Union Minister of Commerce & Industry, Kamal Nath, sought FDI into the country's sluggish infrastructure sector and reiterated Prime Minister's assessment that India would require an investment of at least US$150 billion over the next 5-10 years to upgrade its infrastructure. According to the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) FDI Survey, 2004, "While the outlook for FDI inflows into India in the near to medium term remains positive, security and terrorism concerns weigh heavily on the minds of foreign investors."

In addition to the activities of Indian Naxalites around Bangalore, the presence of the Young Communist League (YCL), a front organisation of the Communist Party of Nepal - Maoist (CPN-M) appears to be active in Bangalore. Slogans such as "Long live YCL Nepal" and "Maobad Zindabad (Long Live Maoism), Communist Party of Nepal" have been found plastered on the walls in various localities, including the Lalbagh West Gate. Sources indicate that YCL has been collecting funds in India and was mobilizing Nepali students and workers for its activities. Ram Charan Shresta, a Kathmandu-based ideologue of the YCL, who is also believed to be linked with Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), coordinates the Indian operations. A former Chief of the Karnataka Police Anti-Terrorist Squad has claimed that the Nepali Maoists were in league with the Naxalites of the PWG. Such linkages and activities, while they are yet to translate into violence, can only further undermine investor confidence in Karnataka, and particularly in Bangalore.

Unfortunately, there appears to be little coherence in India's response to this challenge, and the wider problem of the rampaging growth of Left Wing extremism across large parts of the country. Over the past year, the Naxalites have been extending their areas of activity at the rate of an average of two districts each week, and have gone from just 55 districts in nine States in November 2003, to as many as 170 districts in 15 States by February 2005. In just the past 44 days, 106 persons - 32 civilians, 32 security personnel, and 42 extremists - have been killed in Naxalite-related violence, much of it directly connected with the call for a boycott of the Assembly elections in Bihar and Jharkhand. In Jharkhand, some of the Naxalite affected districts experienced a voter turnover of just 29 per cent, among the worst ever in the State. Nevertheless, the official response continues to be lack-lustre, and Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee on January 29, had said that the Naxalite violence in the country was "manageable".

But efforts to 'manage' this 'manageable' problem are riven with contradictions. In Andhra Pradesh, the Greyhounds, a special force of the Andhra Pradesh Police, had cornered CPI-Maoist State secretary, Ramakrishna, and a number of other Naxalite leaders in the Nallamala forests in the Prakasam-Kurnool district border on February 3, 2005. Some frantic lobbying by sympathizers and front organizations in Hyderabad resulted in political intervention that forced the compliant Police to pull back and allow the extremists to walk free. The nexus between political parties and the Naxalites has been crucial to the long-term survival of this extremist movement, as well as to its extension over widening territories.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has now issued a call for a 'comprehensive strategy' to tackle the Naxalites. Regrettably, there is little evidence that the present regime at New Delhi or, for that matter, in any of the capitals of the affected States, have the political acumen or strategic foresight to deal effectively with this growing challenge.

PAKISTAN

Education Reform: Fundamentalist Fury
Guest Writer: Mohammad Shehzad
Islamabad-based freelance writer

After seizing power through a dramatic coup d'état, General Pervez Musharraf initiated several reforms in various areas, including education. To improve it, Musharraf signed an executive order (the Presidential Ordinance of November 8, 2002; CXIV/2002) inducting the Aga Khan University Examination Board (AKUEB) into the national education system.

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The AKUEB was selected for this assignment due to its outstanding track record. Over the years, the Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) has emerged as one of the most effective association of Community Based Organizations (CBOs) in Pakistan, and has changed the lives of large numbers of people in the remotest areas of Pakistan, including the Northern Areas, where no Government agency has ever undertaken any development work.

The AKUEB has been given the task of upgrading and modernizing the declining standards of education and of holding examinations for private educational institutions. The affiliation of these institutions to the Board is voluntary. The Board has not been given any role in Government schools, and the system is also intended to help groom teachers in private educational institutions with excellent skills through training. The AKUEB would bring modern examinations, both in English and Urdu, at an affordable cost to a much broader section of society, providing parents and schools an option in the style of education they desire from classes IX to XII. Until now, such a choice was confined to a very few who could afford the O Levels fees. The AKUEB follows the British education system of O and A levels. O levels are designed for students from 14 to 16 years old and are aimed at preparing them for academic progression and equipping them with skills necessary for employment. A Level is designed to prepare them for university and other professional fields of study. Both levels emphasize broad choices of subjects, covering the humanities, social sciences, natural sciences and other creative technical and vocational qualifications. A National Examination Testing Service has been constituted and the Government educational boards have agreed to entertain applications from students who take examinations under the AKUEB. These examinations are expected to start in 2006.

Musharraf's initiatives on this count have been greeted as a step in the right direction by the enlightened section of Pakistani society. However, the rightwing groups (jihadis, Islamists, clerics, fundamentalists, and religious extremists) - a powerful minority in Pakistan by whom the mainstream is held hostage - has launched a virulent campaign against these reforms. A wide range of facilities are available to these groups for the propagation of their venomous propaganda, including the jihadi media, pulpits and loudspeakers at mosques, and public rallies [which are not allowed for mainstream politics but are permitted for jihad and fassad (evil)].

The jihadi Press - comprising dozens of publications with a collective circulation in millions - has started a concentrated smear campaign against the Ismaeli (Aga Khani) community, with at least some mainstream publications, such as Nawa-i-Waqt and The Nation, supporting the fundamentalist in this campaign. The jihadi Press is cranking out highly inflammatory and provocative material against the Prince Karim Aga Khan, the Ismaelis, AKUEB and AKDN in an attempt to present the Ahmadis and the Ismaelis as two sides of the same coin. Jihadi leaders have issued statement after statement demonizing the Ahmadis and the Ismaelis. Crossing all limits of decency and diplomacy, the rabid Islamist Qazi Hussain Ahmad - often referred to as a 'Pakistani Bal Thackeray' - launched a direct attack on Prince Karim Aga Khan. The Qazi was the first to spearhead the campaign against the Ismaelis, linking them to the Ahmadis, the most persecuted sect in Pakistan. Weekly Ghazwa - a publication of the defunct Lashkar-e-Taiba - in its May 6, 2004, issue quoted Qazi as saying: "If the Prince Karim Aga Khan tried to interfere in our curriculum, I will make his end miserable. In fact, his end would be even worse than the Ahmadis." A diplomat chastised Qazi at a social gathering for this threat. (The Friday Times; June 3, 2004).

The jihadis accuse the AKDN of receiving a 'bribe' of $45 million as grant from the US for 'perverting' Pakistan's education system by 'spreading nudity and obscenity' and 'introducing a free-sex environment'. To support their claim, the jihadis have distorted and exaggerated a health survey by the Aga Khan Nursing School. The Daily Jasarat, on May 9, 2004, declaimed:

Every jihadi publication has been distorting this questionnaire according to its own indoctrination policy. Outperforming all others, Weekly Ghazwa (December 23, 2004) reported:

Aga Khan Board has circulated a questionnaire among the students under the title, 'Health Survey'. The questionnaire asks the students the following obscene and immoral questions: Should a girl have sex before the marriage? If yes, at what age? AIDS is transmitted through unsafe sex, prostitution and homosexuality, therefore, ensure that you practice safe sex. Have you ever had sex? If yes, at what age? Do you drink? If yes, how much quantity? Do you take drugs or other intoxicating things? When did you have sex first time in your life? Should a boy and a girl in love have sex before the marriage? How to derive maximum pleasure from sex? Have you seen your sister naked? If yes, what type of feelings you had in your mind? Did you ever think of having sex with her? Is your father having sex with you? Is your brother having sex with you? Have you been sleeping with your mother in the childhood? Did you ever see her naked? If yes, what type of feelings you had in your mind? When was the last time you saw your mother naked? These questions pervert the young minds. These questions are asked from the students of the 9th and 10th grade. You can well imagine from the above questions that it is a conspiracy to introduce immoral values in our Islamic society. There is no doubt that the Aga Khan Board is working at the behest of the Jews, Hindus and Christians and its mission is to pervert our coming generations.

The scope of the education reforms controversy widened when Hafiz Mohammad Saeed (the supremo of the defunct Laskhar-e-Taiba, LeT) joined issue. In the internet edition of Weekly Ghazwa (November 4, 2004), Saeed said: "Musharraf is working on making the Northern Areas an Aga Khani state. He has been pressured by Christina Rocca to hand over Kashmir to Prince Karim Aga Khan so that he could annex it with the Northern Areas and make it his fiefdom."

The propaganda against Ismaelis has intensified to such an extent that now Aga Khanis are being condemned for most of the developments taking place in Pakistan, including Pakistan's privatization policy.

America is behind sectarian violence in many countries including Pakistan. The biggest proof of General Musharraf's inefficiency is, he has allowed the AKF to act as the agent of the US. Habib Bank has been sold to the AKF at throwaway price. AKF has been allowed to tamper with the education system of Pakistan. The AKF has secularized Pakistani education system. This has resulted into a backlash against the Aga Khanis and it has happened first time in Pakistan's history. If a better sense did not prevail upon Prince Karim Aga Khan or General Musharraf then Pakistan will be in the grip of a fire. Musharraf has masterminded hatred against Aga Khanis in the Pakistani society. He is pushing Pakistan into the 1971-like situation. (Daily Jasarat, January 10, 2005)

The jihadis have also begun to blame Prince Karim Aga Khan for the sectarian violence in Gilgit. Thus, the Weekly Takbeer in its cover story (Jan 26, 2005) wrote:

Two elements are involved in trouble in Gilgit - internal conspiracies and those who want to secularize the Northern Areas and isolate it from Pakistan. The latter are the pro-Hindu elements and Aga Khanis are on the top of it. The Aga Khani lobby is behind Aga Ziauddin's murder. He was the only hurdle in the preaching of the Aga Khanis' religion. The majority of the people in Gilgit are Shias and Aga Ziauddin was their sole spiritual leader. He was an uncontroversial figure. Even his opponents also admired him. Ziauddin struggled for the rights of Shias on many fronts. He was against the increasing influence of Aga Khan Foundation in the Northern Areas. He also wanted the Government to introduce separate curriculum for the Shias in the Northern Areas. He had opponents too in this regard. The increasing influence of the Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) in Gilgit and Baltistan was the basic reason of Ziauddin's murder. For the last some years, the AKDN was preaching secularism and apostasy in Gilgit and Baltistan under the cover of development work. The Aga Khanis were in majority in Hunza only. They wanted to capture Gilgit and Baltistan where the majority of the population was Shia. To gain popularity among the Shias, the AKDN offered them loans. Under a conspiracy, the AKDN promoted the cultivation of potatoes and provide defective seeds in this effect. When the Shia farmers bought the defective potato seeds on loan on the advice of AKDN, their yield reduced to a significant extent and their financial condition started deteriorating. Banks confiscated their land and their land was purchased by AKDN at throwaway prices. Similarly, AKDN has set up some Basic Health Units (BHUs). The purpose of these BHUs is to spread obscenity, liberalism and apostasy. The US is behind the AKDN. Ziauddin understood this move. He wanted the AKDN to limit its activities to the Aga Khani community. He struggled against secularism from the platform of Ittehadul Muslimeen. In practice, he had waged jihad against the AKDN and mobilized the community in this effect. This was not acceptable to the Aga Khanis as well as the US. The US wanted to give Prince Karim Aga Khan a special role in Kashmir. The plan was to give Kashmir to the Prince's trusteeship. But there were a few big hurdles in this plan - the Shia population and Ziauddin. The US thought by serving the poor community, they could be subjugated. Ziauddin did not let it happen. Thus Ziauddin became a challenge for the US. That is why, Ziauddin was removed from the scene.

The jihadis have also fabricated a number of opinion polls against Ismaelis. Thus the Daily Jasarat reported on December 19, 2004:

According to a survey by the Islami Jamiat-e-Talba (IJT), 854,000 people have rejected the AKB. There were only 64,000 votes in AKB's support. IJT arranged a special referendum to ascertain the popularity of AKB in Sindh. It set up 140 camps and collected the public opinion. Around 9,18,855 people took part in the referendum - 93.02 per cent rejected the AKB. IJT has decided to run a countrywide campaign against AKB. It will demand that the government should take back its decision of giving the educational system to AKB.

The United Students Front (USF) - a union of jihadi students - has threatened to attack Parliament if AKF's involvement in the education was not ended. The USF's president, Sahibzada Babar Farooq Rahimi, has said that the students will not hesitate to sacrifice their lives if the decision to hand over the education board to AKF was not reversed.

It is useful to note that the Aga Khanis have nothing to do with the curriculum or with the Ahmadia community. But the jihadis have launched a massive propaganda war to demonize them, and the result, in at least one case, was that the AKDN's offices and its aid workers have been attacked in Gilgit and NWFP in the recent past. Pakistan's poorly educated people are so influenced by this propaganda that they have come to view the Government's education reforms as a conspiracy against Islam. The extremists' propaganda has substantially succeeded in projecting the following perspectives:

1. The Ahmadis are a scourge and the Ismaelis are their twin-brothers. They are infidels. The US wants to bring them into the mainstream, which is possible only through indoctrination. Therefore, General Musharraf at the US' behest has 'pledged' the entire education system to the Prince Karim Aga Khan who is an agent of the 'evil powers' -the US, Israel and India.
2. The above motive cannot be achieved without restructuring the current educational system, which protects the two-nation theory. Therefore, the AKUEB will be reforming the curriculum under the cover of conducting exams for the private schools.
3. Pakistan in the years to come will get away with the constitutional clause that declares Ahmadis to be non-Muslims. As a first step in this direction, the Ismaelis have coerced General Musharraf not to restore the column of religion in the new passports.

The jihadis have long considered America, India, Israel and Ahmadis as the worst evils. Musharraf's education reforms have given them a new entity to demonize: the Ismaelis, and there is urgent need to counter their venomous propaganda. Unfortunately, the Government's own orientation has compounded the problem. Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, a civil society representative who heads one of the largest networks for sustainable development in Pakistan, LEAD (Leadership for Environment and Development), notes:

…AKUEB is not a conspiracy. It will add quality to our declining education standards. The jihadis and maulvis have portrayed it as a conspiracy because the Government has failed to involve the civil society in this initiative. We still have to see the Terms of References (ToRs) of the agreement that the Government of Pakistan has signed with the AKUEB. This entire issue could be cleansed of conspiracies and controversies once it is opened for stakeholders' debate. The question is not, why the Government has done so? We all support this initiative. The question is how it would be done. The civil society is still in darkness about this issue.