SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 3, No. 7, August 30, 2004

 

INDIA

Assam: Resurgent ULFA and the Indolent State
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Director, ICM Database & Documentation Centre, Guwahati

Assam's open denunciation of the United Liberation Front of Asom's (ULFA) renewed offensive appears to have had minimal impact on the outfit. Seven explosions rocked Assam on August 26, leaving five people dead and over 100 injured. Coming barely 11 days after the horrific series of blasts targeting Independence Day celebrations on August 15 - which killed 13 people, mostly school children, at Dhemaji - this spate of attacks is an indication that ULFA is now far less responsive to public opinion. However, the bigger question that confronts Assam as it prepares itself for another bout of carnage, is whether ULFA's escalation of terror has been matched by an adequate State response. This certainly does not appear to be the case.

Also Read ULFA's Success or a Counter-Insurgency Failure? -- Wasbir Hussain Spreading Terror From the 'Kashmir Camp'? -- Wasbir Hussain

The public response to ULFA's latest cycle of bloodshed is, however, a significant departure from the characteristic acquiescence or passivity that the rebel group's excesses have ordinarily been met with. The Independence Day explosions gave rise to a war of words between the ULFA and the once-influential students' body, the All Assam Students' Union (AASU). AASU mobilised the popular revulsion aroused by the killing of schoolchildren to organise a highly successful general strike in the State on August 18. AASU's strong reaction was reflected in the statement of its office bearers who raised, albeit for the first time, doubts about ULFA's sincerity towards the well being of the people of the State. "Paresh Baruah has no remorse in targeting innocent children, but he dare not speak out against illegal migrants from the neighbouring country flooding the State." The statement declared, further: "What ULFA is doing now is plain terrorism. But we'll not remain spectators to these acts. We are building up public opinion against militancy and will intensify our efforts. The ULFA will find itself completely alienated from the people."

The ULFA chief, however, has shown little remorse, and responded, instead, by accusing AASU of initiating a cycle of violence in the State and not being sufficiently committed to the illegal migrants' issue. A statement issued on August 21 read, "AASU had no moral right to criticise the ULFA for violence as the student body itself was involved in massacres in Gohpur and Nellie in early 1980s." The war of words carried on for the next few days before ULFA decided to respond in a manner it knows best - by detonating multiple explosions, which, according to the vernacular newspaper Pratidin, sent 'shivers down Assam's spine'.

The political leadership in the State, however, continues to bury its head in the sand. Responding to queries on the law and order situation, the Union Minister of State for Defence Production, B.K. Handique, representing Assam's Jorhat constituency, stated on August 27, "We can only say that it has worsened if there is a long-term spate of attacks. What has been seen so far are random blasts."

Such complacence, a survey of the ULFA's activities in the period since the December 2003 Bhutan operations would suggest, is deeply misplaced. Between January 2004 and August 27, 2004, ULFA has been responsible for at least 12 attacks on vital installations like the gas and oil pipelines and telephone exchanges, five attacks on movie theatres, three explosions on railway tracks, eight explosions in public places, four attacks on police stations and security force vehicles, three explosions inside buses and 10 attacks in which terrorists have killed their victims by shooting from close range. A total of 45 civilians and 15 security force personnel have been killed in these attacks. In the month of August alone there have been at least 16 explosions triggered by the ULFA.

There is a definite pattern to this violence. ULFA, which initially claimed that it only targeted symbols of the supposed 'colonial presence', is now less averse to detonating explosions in public places. More importantly, it has been able to execute its attacks in several districts, almost over the entire geographical spread of the State, repudiating the popular theory that the militant group's influence had been reduced to few pockets. Of the 57 ULFA-related incidents in the State between January and August 27, 2004, 31 have taken place in the four upper Assam districts of Jorhat, Tinsukia, Dibrugarh and Sibsagar. The remaining 26 attacks have been executed across 11 other districts of the State.

Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi has now declared that he wants operations to 'flush out' the militant sanctuaries in Bangladesh and Myanmar, and now blames the National Socialist Council of Nagaland - Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM), Myanmar and Bangladesh for sheltering and provisioning the outfit. Nevertheless, the Chief Minister is still to take a completely unambiguous position on the ULFA, and continues to emphasise 'negotiations and dialogue for peace'. In any event, as things stand today, the possibilities of a Bhutan-type operation in either Bangladesh or Myanmar are remote. At the same time, any hope of the recalcitrant ULFA negotiating peace with the Government remains a distant reverie.

The Inspector General of Police (IGP) of the Special Branch, Khagen Sarma, has been quoted as saying that he has definite information of Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) aiding ULFA, not only by supplying arms but also in defining strategies. On August 27, the Sarma stated: "We have got definite information that ISI is supplying arms and ammunition to ULFA for conducting bomb blasts throughout the state." The State police department has spent both energy and resources in building up a case against the ULFA and its activities in Bangladesh by collecting copies of passports issued by Pakistan to ULFA leaders, residential addresses of the ULFA leaders in Bangladesh, as well as details of their business and other activities. However, on August 9, speaking in the State Legislative Assembly, Minister of State for Home, Rockybul Hussain, said that the State Government possessed 'no direct evidence' of ISI activities in the State. Such ambivalence within the target State will have to be abandoned long before Gogoi can reasonably expect either Bangladesh or Myanmar to respond.

A high measure of moral ambiguity is pervasive among several political parties and other organisations in Assam. Criticising the State administration for the August 15 explosions, a leader of the Assam Gana Parishad (AGP) termed the killings 'custodial deaths', squarely blaming the State Government for having asked the school children to attend the function. The reaction of the Manab Adhikar Sangram Samiti (MASS), which has been named as a front organisation of the ULFA by the Union Government, was in similar vein. MASS condemned the explosion and linked it with the "years of militarisation over democratic ideals in the northeast region." AASU too, after its surprising public spat with the terrorist group, was quick to demand a 100-hour unilateral ceasefire with the ULFA in order to initiate a process of dialogue.

The limited criticism o ULFA's current violence cannot be expected to have significant impact on the militant group's activities. ULFA has, in the past, rejected all 'civil society' initiatives - and there have been several by literary organisations, artists and politicians - to bring an end to the violence in the State. Each of these was violently rebuffed, and Paresh Baruah has stated: "In this age of high speed communication and internet, we do not need any mediation."

Strangely enough, the State has refused to learn, and has displayed the most asinine responses each time ULFA leaders have invoked the chimera of 'dialogue'. Prudence and strategic planning have never been the virtues manifested by Assam's rulers.

 

NEPAL

Blockade Ends, but no Signs of a Ceasefire
Guest Writer: Keshab Poudel
Managing Editor, Spotlight Weekly Magazine, Kathmandu

Following intense pressure from civil society, the business community and amid growing defiance by transport entrepreneurs, the Maoists withdrew their indefinite blockade on the Kathmandu Valley on August 24 - a week after its imposition - but the move is yet to generate any visible signs of the resumption of the peace process or a declaration of ceasefire between the Government and the Maoists, with both parties to the conflict bent on using pressure tactics against each other.

Also Read Maoist Rhetoric for United Nations Mediation -- P.G. Rajamohan Maoist Affiliates Sever Ties -- Keshab Poudel

Although the Government had made every possible effort to minimize the impact of the blockade, the Maoists were able to gain significant psychological advantages by demonstrating that the link to the Valley could be cut off through intimidation and threat at any time. Officials and industrialists blamed the exaggerated reporting by the domestic and international media for the perceived Maoist 'success'.

The tourism sector, one of the country's main sources of foreign currency, was badly affected by the week-long blockade. Tourism entrepreneurs said they lost about five million dollars due to cancelled bookings by foreign tourists. "The recent blockade and its exaggerated coverage in the foreign media have affected our business," said Basant Raj Mishra, president of Nepalese Association of Tour.

The Maoists, on their part, have intensified their violent activities and, of late, have been pressurising the local population of the two eastern border districts, Ilam and Panchthar, to vacate their houses and properties till the second week of September.

It was substantially the Government's security arrangement along two highways linking the capital with the Indian border - the major supply line to the capital - that convinced transport entrepreneurs to operate the routes despite the blockade, and this resulted eventually in its 'suspension for one month', as the Maoists expressed it. The blockade did, however, result in a steep rise in prices of essential commodities.

The Maoists, who have been fighting for a communist republic, used every means including fear and reprisals to make the economic blockade successful. A senior police officer was shot dead by suspected Maoist rebels in the capital, and there were also a number of bomb explosions, some of them targeting Government offices and establishments, in the Valley during the blockade.

On August 22 - four days after the economic blockade commenced - industrialists held a big rally asking the Maoists to withdraw their program. The rally attracted participation by civil society members, businessmen and the general public, and demanded the resumption of peace talks and the announcement of a ceasefire by both the sides.

In an effort to expand the blockade to cover the only one route into Tibet, however, the Maoists attacked an Army platoon that was clearing obstacles on the road, killing five soldiers on August 24.

Nevertheless, in a major achievement for the security force, they were able to provide blanket protection to the trucks and buses heading into the capital, though, in the initial days of the blockade, the palpable fear kept vehicles off the roads.

However, as the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) beefed up its patrolling in and around the highways, the numbers gradually increased. The RNA also provided aerial support and chopper-patrols of the highways to instill a sense of security and confidence among the drivers and passengers. The vehicles plying in and out of the capital were also escorted by Mine Protected Vehicles. In addition, the Government decided to expedite compensation for any vehicles damaged during the blockade and to meet the costs of treatment of drivers or helpers injured during the blockade. Compensation was also announced for the families of any transporters killed, and scholarships to be provided for the education of children of such victims. Since the Maoists did not come out to physically block the highways, these measures proved adequate to create a sense of security and confidence among transporters.

The crescendo of international condemnation combined with the growing sense of anger among ordinary residents of the Valley, finally appears to have forced the comrades to call it off. The European Union, the United States and most importantly, Nepal's closest neighbour, India had expressed deep concern during the blockade.

India's concerns are acute and mounting. With Nepal located in the Southern Himalayas bordering India's Gangetic plain, prolonged spell of violence and instability in the Himalayan Kingdom have long-term security implications for its Southern neighbour. At a time when there is reports of increasing contacts between the Nepalese Maoists and the Maoist Communist Centre (MCC) of Bihar and People's War Group (PWG) which operates in as many as ten Indian States, India is naturally worried about the internal situation in Nepal.

Unsurprisingly, India has been providing military support to the RNA. Two of Nepal's longest serving former Prime Ministers, Surya Bahadur Thapa and Girija Prasad Koirala, have also openly asserted that Indian support is necessary to quell the insurgency in Nepal. "If Nepal and India have full understanding, the situation can take a significant turn - and the Maoists know this. In the last one year, India has stepped up its training to Nepalese security forces and has provided weapons, too. Besides, India has arrested a some top Maoist leaders and handed a few of them over to Nepal as well. I have taken this as a signal that India is prepared to go to any length to help Nepal," said Thapa, who is longest serving Prime Minister in Nepal under three different monarchs. Nepal's current Prime Minister, Sher Bahadur Deuba, who is schedule to pay a four-day visit to India commencing September 8, will be discussing, among other issues, the Maoist problem with Indian leaders.

In the meanwhile, possibilities of a return to peace remain remote, though Prime Minister Deuba, addressing a delegation of youths affiliated to the Communist Party of Nepal - Unified Marxist and Leninist (CPN- UML), a major coalition partner, on August 25, indicated that there could still be some hope of resumption of the peace process, but only if the Maoists genuinely wanted to settle the dispute through talks. "I want durable peace. As long as the Maoists do not show any sincere commitment towards a result-oriented peace process, there is no question of declaring a unilateral ceasefire," he said, reminding the delegation that he had already been cheated once by the Maoists in the name of peace talks.

In August 2001, the then Government headed by Deuba had invited the Maoists for talks, only to be left high and dry when the rebels pulled out and launched a deadly attack on Army barracks in western Nepal - dragging the RNA into the internal conflict and forcing Deuba to impose a nationwide state of Emergency.

Amidst the worsening security situation in the country, Nepal's international partners have been urging both the sides to immediately revive the peace process. The European Union and British special envoy to Nepal, Sir Jeffrey James, stated: "We continue to believe that there can be no acceptable military solution to the conflict. Hostilities continue to inflict appalling suffering and hardship as well as damage to Nepal's economy and the livelihoods of the Nepalese people. The longer the conflict continues, the harder it may become to negotiate a solution," said James, who has been visiting Nepal regularly since his appointment in February 2002, in a written statement.

Despite his reservations regarding Maoist commitments to a peace process, Prime Minister Deuba constituted a high level committee under his own leadership, on August 12. The committee members include CPN-UML General Secretary, Madhav Kumar Nepal, Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) leader Pashupati Sumsher Rana, Nepal Sadbhavana Party (NSP) leader Badri Prasad Mandal, and Minister of Information Dr. Mohammad Mohsin.

The CPN-UML, one of the Deuba Government's main allies, is pressing for the announcement of a unilateral ceasefire by the Government as a prelude to the resumption of negotiations. "The week-long blockade by the Maoists has shown that the time has come to resume the negotiations with the Maoists," said the CPN-UML strong-man, Madhav Nepal.

Under intense pressure from the party, Deputy Prime Minister and senior CPN-UML leader, Bharat Mohan Adhikary, has repeatedly called on the Maoists to resume the peace process: "We are earnestly urging the Maoists to come for talks. This Government was formed to hold the peace talks with the Maoists. We urge them to see reason and come for talks and discuss anything they want."

Some intellectuals have expressed the opinion that the Government's efforts for peace have been inadequate. "The Maoists will not come for talks just because the Government invites them by issuing a statement through Radio Nepal. There have to be credible moves to assure them," said Padma Ratna Tuladhar, a former facilitator of the Government-Maoist talks. "The Government needs to withdraw the 'terrorist' tag, drop red-corner notices and announce a unilateral ceasefire to exhibit that credibility."

Although both parties to the conflict are yet to show signs of flexibility, the recent withdrawal of the blockade of the Kathmandu Valley by the Maoist might - just might - open a small window of opportunity for a resumption of the negotiation process.