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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 5, No. 33, February 26, 2007

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT


 


INDIA
PAKISTAN


The ‘Peace Process’ and the Epicentre of Terrorism
Guest Writer: G. Parthasarathy
Columnist, former Indian High Commissioner / Ambassador to Pakistan, Myanmar and Australia

Following the Havana Summit between President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in September 2006, and the subsequent establishment of the much touted "Joint Terror Mechanism", reticence about Pakistani sponsored terrorism and a reluctance to speak candidly on the subject has become a hallmark of Indian diplomacy. Not surprisingly, the United States –which is itself following such an approach, despite irrefutable evidence of Pakistani support to the Taliban and tolerance of the presence of the top al Qaeda leadership in Waziristan – has praised both New Delhi and Islamabad for their new approach to bilateral relations. It was, consequently, not surprising that, when Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri arrived in India barely forty eight hours after train blasts shook the Delhi-Attari Special Train that links up with the Samjhauta Express between the two countries, killing 68 people – both Indians and Pakistanis – his Indian hosts pleased him by eschewing "finger pointing". Indeed, they went even further, tamely promising to furnish evidence gleaned from their investigations into the train blasts, at the first meeting of the ‘Joint Working Group’ on Terrorism, scheduled to meet in Islamabad on March 6, 2007.

Barely a week before Kasuri’s arrival in India, the extremist Sunni group Jundullah carried out two terrorist strikes in Zahedan, the principal city of Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan Province close to the Pakistan-Iran border. Fifteen members of Iran’s Revolutionary guard were killed in this terrorist strike. The next day, a bomb exploded near a girls’ school in Zahedan. Following preliminary investigations, the Pakistan Ambassador was summoned to the Iranian Foreign Office, with Tehran protesting that Pakistan’s territory was being used for terrorism against Iran. Barely a week later, the semi-official Tehran Times accused Pakistan of providing "logistical and political support" on its territory, to the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Significantly, Washington has shown an unusual interest recently in ethnic and sectarian faultlines within Iran, with some think tanks attempting to bring together the Baluch, Kurdish, Azeri and Turkmen minorities in Iran on a common anti-clerical platform. There are, therefore, reasons to believe that, on issues of peace in the Middle East and on Iran, General Musharraf is making a determined attempt to ingratiate himself with the Americans as a steadfast ally leading a ‘moderate Islamic State’. This alone can explain American reluctance to candidly address issues of General Musharraf’s support to the Taliban and to Jihadis operating in Jammu and Kashmir and elsewhere in India. New Delhi would do well to bear this in mind.

The suave and sophisticated Khurshid Kasuri, while he was in Delhi, appeared to be extremely optimistic about an imminent breakthrough in ‘back channel’ talks on Jammu and Kashmir. Quite appropriately, he argued that premature disclosure of the contents of these talks would be counterproductive. The long-pending agreement on reducing the risk from nuclear accidents was finally signed. It was good to see Pakistan come up with new ideas on liberalizing the highly restrictive visa regime now in force. As an open society, India should be more than forthcoming on liberalizing, if necessary unilaterally, procedures for issuing visas to Pakistanis wanting to visit India to meet friends and relatives, participate in academic exchanges, visit places of worship, to secure medical treatment and for group tourism. It was agreed that there would be further talks on issues such as Siachen and Sir Creek, and that the ‘Joint Terror Mechanism’ would meet for the first time next month. Kasuri met leaders of the ‘moderate’ All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) faction led by Mirwaiz Umar Farooq as well as the ‘hardline’ faction led by Syed Ali Shah Geelani. Not surprisingly, Geelani stuck to his guns and reflected the views of his mentor in Pakistan, the Amir of the Jamaat-e-Islami, Qazi Hussain Ahmed, who has been a vociferous critic both of General Musharraf’s domestic and foreign policies.

While it is naturally to be wished that Kasuri’s optimism on Jammu and Kashmir will be translated into reality, there are still nagging doubts and queries about what General Musharraf has proposed, which need to be clarified. Do his proposals for self governance, demilitarization, joint management and making borders irrelevant constitute the basis of a ‘Final Settlement’ on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir, or are they merely ‘suggestions’ for an ‘Interim Settlement’ that becomes the basis to reopen the issue after a few years lapse, with Pakistan then maintaining that Kashmir remains a part of the ‘Unfinished Agenda of Partition?' While India and Pakistan can work out ‘Joint Mechanisms’ to collaborate on issues like tourism, education, health, environment and water management in Jammu and Kashmir, any possibility of ‘Joint Management’ that touches on issues of sovereignty can be ruled out. Finally, leave alone ‘demilitarization’, can one even think of ‘troop reduction’ as long as groups like the Muttahida (United) Jihad Council (UJC) based in Muzafarabad continue to promote terrorism across the Line of Control? These are issues that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will have to clarify to the people of India during the ongoing budget session of Parliament.

The bomb blasts in the Samjhauta Express were the first terrorist incident on Indian soil in which Pakistani nationals also perished. One would normally have expected that both countries would send out a clear signal, manifesting their determination to tell the terrorists involved that their plan to deter people to people contacts would not succeed. The best way to have done this would have been to announce that the two countries had agreed to reopen their Consulates General in Karachi and Mumbai immediately and that the biweekly Samjhauta Express would be converted shortly into a daily service, with far better amenities and comforts for the passengers. Instead of taking this logical step, the two sides ended up bickering about the astonishing and insensitive Pakistan action to pull out critically hurt patients from the Safdarjang Hospital in Delhi and airlift them to Lahore. Matters were made worse when Pakistan’s rather shrill and excitable spokesperson accused New Delhi of refusing to allow two of its nationals to fly back, when in actual fact, both these unfortunate people were in Panipat trying to recognize the charred bodies of their children, who had perished in the flames that engulfed two bogies of the Samjhauta Express.

It is now evident that even as talks on issues like Jammu and Kashmir continue, General Musharraf has no intention of abiding by the commitment he made to Prime Minister Vajpayee on January 6, 2004, that he would not allow territory under Pakistan’s control to be used for terrorism against India. Pakistan now stands accused by all three neigbours with whom it shares land borders – India, Iran and Afghanistan, of allowing its territory to be used too promote terrorism. General Musharraf has evidently calculated that, given his indispensability in American eyes for promoting American goals in the ‘Greater Middle East’, the US will have to live with what he does in Afghanistan and India. China in the meantime, has blocked efforts to get the UN Security Council to declare the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (the new name for the Lashkar-e-Toiba [LeT]) as a terrorist organization. General Musharraf also knows that he has run circles around Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his aides, who can now do little to deal with issues of terrorism, apart from delivering alarmist speeches in Munich.

INDIA
SRI LANKA

LTTE: Coastal Subversion
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

Defence Minister A. K. Antony on February 18, 2007, asked the Indian armed forces "to be constantly alert, otherwise there is danger lurking at the sea coasts." He added, further, "The top-most priority of the Coast Guard and the Navy is surveillance of the coastline and the sea. We will provide them ships and aircraft."

Referring to the February 13, 2007, incident in the southern State of Tamil Nadu, where the Coast Guard seized a suspected Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) boat with explosives, detonators, arms and ammunition, including an explosive-laden belt used by suicide bombers, the Defence Minister noted that this could be the "tip of the iceberg… There can be several such instances in the vast sea." He disclosed that the LTTE was using the Tamil Nadu coastline to infiltrate India’s borders. Pointing out that India's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) currently encompassing 2.01 million square kilometres, and was set to increase to three million square kilometres, Antony warned, that the "threat will be more" in the foreseeable future.

On February 13, the Indian Coast Guard intercepted a LTTE boat carrying a suicide bomb jacket packed with explosive substances weighing seven kilograms, as well as five detonators, and arrested five persons. The boat was seized by the Coast Guard in the Palk Bay, 20 nautical miles from Point Calimere in south Tamil Nadu. Besides the suicide bomb vest and detonators, five hand grenades, an AK-56 rifle with 124 rounds of ammunition and eight drums, each containing 55 litres of liquid chemical, were also found on the ship. The Director General of Tamil Nadu Police, D. Mukherjee, disclosed that, of the five men arrested, one was serving as a driver for the LTTE and that four among the five were Sri Lankan Tamils. The Coast Guard on February 20, 2007, destroyed the boat after finding that the gap between fibre sheet panels was packed with gunpowder and was at risk of exploding. Tamil Nadu’s police chief also stated that the boat was headed for Sri Lanka and had no plans for a ‘mission’ in Tamil Nadu: "Initial interrogations of the arrested men reveal that Tamil Nadu was not the intended destination. The boat belongs to the Sea Tigers wing of the LTTE and was proceeding to hand over the articles and ammunition to another boat of the LTTE and to bring back a consignment to be handed over at Iranaitheevu." Reiterating that the LTTE vessel came into Indian territorial waters, 27 nautical miles from the Indian shore, only to evade the Sri Lankan Army and Navy, Mukherjee confirmed: "Neither the crew nor the articles were meant for Tamil Nadu."

However, Sri Lanka Defence spokesperson Kehelia Ramubukwella told the media on February 21 that two of the Tamils apprehended on the boat were 'potential' suicide cadres proceeding towards the Tamil Nadu coast. This claim comes in the wake of indications that the LTTE is currently and intensely attempting to revive its subversive activities in Tamil Nadu, creating an imminent threat for the security scenario in this coastal State of Southern India, where the people have a particular emotional bonding with the Tamils of Sri Lanka. Tamil Nadu has witnessed sporadic terrorist activity by the LTTE in the past, including the May 21, 1991, assassination of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, and the outfit has managed to retain a presence in the State, even after the Union Government’s ban since 1991. Some of the more recent incidents indicating the existence of a surviving LTTE network along the Tamil Nadu coast include:

January 5, 2007: 50 live rocket shells were netted by fishermen from the Palk Straits in waters off the Tamil Nadu coast in the preceding 15 days. The Israeli and German-made shells, packed in wooden boxes, are believed to have been abandoned by the LTTE.

January 24, 2007: Police arrested eight suspected LTTE cadres from Tamil Nadu and seized more than two metric tons of ball bearings that can be used for making mines. They had bought the bearings, manufactured in Mumbai, and were to planning to take them to Sri Lanka.

February 20, 2007: The Navy seized a boat close to Adams Bridge off Rameswaram. The boat was carrying about three tonnes of non-ferrous metal, possibly for use as raw material for explosive devices. Officials suspect the cargo was meant for the LTTE.

February 19, 2007: The Navy stopped a "suspicious looking" vellam (country boat) carrying 2.8 kilograms of metallic bars, rings and firing pins near Adams Bridge off Rameswaram. Two local fishermen were arrested.

February 11, 2007: The Indian Navy arrested two persons and seized 2.9 tonnes of components used for making improvised explosive devices (IED) in a boat off the Rameswaram coast in Tamil Nadu. Preliminary enquiries revealed that the IED components were being smuggled to LTTE cadres in Sri Lanka.

Earlier, in November 2006, 30 sacks of detonators were recovered from a van that was involved in an accident in the Sivaganga District. Those arrested after the contraband's discovery reportedly told the Tamil Nadu Police that the detonators were meant for Sri Lanka, for use by the LTTE.

The revivied movement of LTTE cadres and sympathisers is not only a concern for Tamil Nadu but for the rest of India as well. Reports suggest that the LTTE has recently started looking beyond the shores of Tamil Nadu and other Southern States. The arrest of Miraj Shahib Ismail on January 27, 2007, for supplying a large number of ball-bearings procured in the Null Bazaar area of Mumbai, to the LTTE is an indication that the outfit, under tremendous global pressure, is now looking at a variety of sources for its supplies. Maharashtra is only of one its choices. An undated Vision Document of the Maharashtra Government refers to established links between indigenous Naxalite (Maoist) groups and the LTTE; such linkages have also been historically documented between the Maoists and the erstwhile People’s War Group (Communist Party of India, Marxist-Leninist, Peoples War, which merged with the Maoist Communist Centre to form the Communist Party of India–Maoist, in September 2004) in Andhra Pradesh. Intelligence sources have also indicated some concern on the LTTE reviving its bases not only in Tamil Nadu but also in Andhra Pradesh. The Tamil Nadu Police is now conducting massive combing operations to arrest ‘LTTE brokers’, a term coined for Indian nationals who aid the LTTE in the procurement and transport of arms.

According to reports on January 9, 2007, Tamil Nadu is now setting up 12 Marine Police Stations and has also decided to increase the number of Police Check Posts close to the sea from the present 60 to 100 within the next six months. The Marine Police will operate both in the Coastal Districts and in the sea that divides Tamil Nadu from Sri Lanka. Officials disclosed that it had been decided that there should be greater monitoring of coastal villages and what are known as 'landing points' for smugglers on the coast. Security agencies are reportedly carrying out intensive checks in Tamil Nadu, particularly at Ramnathapuram, Tuticorin and other coastal areas. In an effort to arrest LTTE functionary Kannan, who is believed to have masterminded the smuggling of IED components to Sri Lanka, and another accused, K. Mutheeswaran, and his accomplices, the Police raided possible hideouts in several villages on February 19, 2007, particularly at Irumeni, along the Rameswaram Coast. Reports indicate that Kannan had established several ‘cells’, each consisting of two or three persons, to avoid leakage of operational information. Some clandestine landing centres in Tuticorin District and at Kundhugal, Pamban, Mandapam and Vedhalai in Ramanathapuram District were used for landing and loading explosives, medicines and other materials required by the LTTE.

On February 23, 2007, Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi, made it clear that the Tamil Nadu Government would not overlook the national interest and security issues, even as it appealed to the Government of India to protect Sri Lankan Tamils. Replying to a set of questions, he stated that no one should be under the illusion that the State Government would intervene in the Sri Lankan [Tamils] issue neglecting the national interest and defence of the country or ignoring the steps taken by the Centre to safeguard them. The Chief Minister also declared that the State Government had issued instructions to security agencies to unearth the secret links of Tamil Nadu politicians with the LTTE and to take ‘stern action’ without fear or favour as per law, against such a network.

The open, though undeclared, war in Sri Lanka, and prospects of worse to follow, is bound to have a spill-over impact into the neighbouring southern Indian State of Tamil Nadu. As in the past, the LTTE will look to harnessing its links and political sensitivities in Tamil Nadu. A subversive and terrorist campaign by the LTTE, arguably the most lethal terrorist group in the world, in a relatively peaceful State, has the potential to generate very serious repercussions in Tamil Nadu.

 

NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
February 19-25, 2007

 
Civilian
Security Force Personnel
Terrorist/Insurgent
Total
BANGLADESH
0
0
1
1

INDIA

Haryana

2
0
0
2

Jammu &
Kashmir

2
5
3
10

Left-Wing Extremism

0
0
3
3

Manipur

4
17
0
21

Tripura

0
0
1
1

Total (INDIA)

8
22
7
37
PAKISTAN
7
0
3
10
SRI LANKA
11
2
11
24
 Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.

 


INDIA

16 security force personnel killed in Manipur: At least 16 security force (SF) personnel were killed by militants in an ambush on February 24-morning at Jouzangtek in the Tamenglong district. Hospital sources said the death toll could increase as the condition of some of the wounded is said to be serious. They were coming back from Khoupum, a tribal village, after performing election duty on February 23, 2007. Though the SFs retaliated, there was no report of any casualty among the militants. The Hindu, February 25, 2007.


PAKISTAN

Al Qaeda operating along Durand Line, says US State Department: Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda network continue to operate from the area that straddles the Durand Line, said the US State Department without specifying whether the alleged al Qaeda camps are on the Afghan or Pakistan side of the border. "We continue to be concerned about the existence of Al Qaeda’s leadership that’s out there, Osama bin Laden among others," the Department’s deputy spokesperson Tom Casey told a briefing in Washington. "And we continue to be concerned as you know, about cross-border activities from Pakistan to Afghanistan," he added. Casey was commenting on a New York Times report earlier this week that the al Qaeda leadership has successfully revived the terrorist network, working from bases in North Waziristan. Dawn, February 22, 2007.

Taliban planning more suicide attacks in Pakistan: Intelligence agencies indicated that Taliban commanders plan to carry out 12 suicide attacks in various parts of Pakistan. According to intelligence reports submitted to the Interior Ministry, the attacks have been planned by Taliban commanders such as Baitullah Mehsud, Abdullah Mehsud, Sheikh Khalid Mahmood and Nazir Wazir. The reports also name five of the 12 expected suicide bombers and their targets. They say that Nurani, a resident of Ghazni district in Afghanistan, has been given the task to carry out a suicide attack in Islamabad or Sargodha. Gul Jan, who belongs to the Mehsud tribe in South Waziristan, has reportedly been tasked with an attack in Lahore. Miatol, who belongs to a Punjabi tribe, is stated to be planning an attack in Dera Ismail Khan. Ziaul Haq, a resident of Shand Estate, is reported to be preparing a suicide blast in the Bahawalpur region. Mohammad Zaman, a resident of Waziristan, is said to be planning attacks in Lahore and Rawalpindi. Another report, submitted to the Interior Ministry, said that the current wave of suicide attacks in Pakistan indicates that terrorists are targeting senior security officials and politicians who support President Pervez Musharraf’s policy of "enlightened moderation". Daily Times, February 22, 2007.

Islamist extremist kills Minister in Punjab province: An Islamist "fanatic" shot dead the Social Welfare Minister of Punjab province, Zile Huma Usman, in an open court in her hometown of Gujranwala on February 20, 2007. Police said Muhammad Sarwar shot dead the minister during a brief power cut during the open court at Pakistan Muslim League House. Police arrested Sarwar immediately after the shooting and later said he was a religious fanatic opposed to women being independent, and had been implicated in four murders and two attempted murders in Gujranwala. "He considers it contrary to the teachings of Allah for a woman to become a minister or a ruler. That’s why he committed this action," the police said in a statement. Punjab province Law Minister Raja Basharat said "He (Sarwar) is basically a fanatic." The minister had reportedly been the target of several death threats since she had tried to organise a "mini-marathon" for men and women in Gujranwala in 2005. The race was attacked by Islamist extremists who consider it un-Islamic for men and women to run together. She was also attempting to organise another marathon in Gujranwala in late March 2006, and had again received death threats. Daily Times, February 21, 2007.


SRI LANKA

Troops capture three LTTE bases: Sri Lankan troops have captured three Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) bases in the north-eastern region, forcing the outfit’s cadres to flee into the jungles, the Defence Ministry said on February 24, 2007. "The military had to carry out the operation as the terrorists were targeting our camps in the area and risking supply lines… During the past 72 hours, the Army, supported by artillery and mortars, successfully neutralised the three bases," said military spokespersons Brig. Prasad Samarasinghe. The area is near the port city of Trincomalee, which has a major Sri Lankan navy base and serves as an important supply line to the north. However, no casualties were reported, as the LTTE cadres had fled before the troops moved in. Soldiers recovered a large number of roadside bombs, anti-personnel mines, rocket-propelled grenades, assault rifles, mortars and large quantities of ammunition. Meanwhile, the European cease-fire monitors said on February 23 that nearly 4,000 people were killed in Sri Lanka over the past 15 months — compared to 130 deaths in the previous three years. The Hindu, February 25, 2007.

 

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

Publisher
K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


A Project of the
Institute For Conflict Management



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