SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 6, No. 23, December 17, 2007

Fragmenting Peace
Prasanta Kumar Pradhan
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On December 10, 2007, while addressing a programme organised by the Nepal Human Rights Commission in Lalitpur, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala observed that he envisioned a Nepali society that embraces everyone, from the common man to the King, making it amply clear that his party would seek to retain some space within the system for Nepal’s monarchy. Koirala remarked that, "We have, to date, advocated a republican setup with a federal system of governance, but we are yet to discuss what form of republic and federal structure we want, that would be suitable for our country." The Prime Minister’s stance was echoed more vocally by his daughter and a Nepali Congress (NC) Central Committee member, Sujata Koirala, who stated that, "In any case, our party favours the institution of monarchy to continue, as most of the Central Committee members support the cause of the constitutional monarchy." She added, further, "An individual can do wrong but the institution as such can’t be penalized… King Gyanendra and his coterie might be bad but the institution of monarchy cannot be penalized only because of their past fault… I have always favoured a constitutional monarchical framework." These statements have complicated the already fragile political and security situation of the country.

The Communist Party of Nepal – Maoist (CPN-Maoist), on its part, warned that Koirala had till December 15 to sack the King or be sacked himself. Maoist Chairman Prachanda warned at a public meeting on December 8 that if the NC failed to sack the King within a week, the Government would be ‘reshuffled’. Negotiations, however, continue, and the Maoists are still to act on their threat at the time of writing.

Throughout the year 2007, persisting political volatility as well as insurgent activity continued to augment Nepal’s instability. Though the number of insurgency-related fatalities has remained low, subversive activity of the CPN-Maoist continued to grow unchecked across the country. According to the Institute for conflict Management database, 95 persons have been killed this year (provisional data till December 13), including 55 civilians and 40 Maoists, against a total of 480 fatalities in 2006, which included, 61 civilians, 181 security force (SF) personnel and 238 insurgents. According to the Kathmandu-based Informal Sector Education Centre (INSEC), 20 people were killed by the SFs and 22 persons were killed by the Maoist youth wing, the Young Communist League (YCL) ever since the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) came into effect in November 2006. An INSEC report disclosed that 772 people were abducted by the YCL over this period, adding that the Maoists were continuing with their illegal activities and violating the rights of the general people. It is, nevertheless, the case that the number of fatalities has declined dramatically since the Cease-fire Code of Conduct was signed between the Government of Nepal and CPN-Maoist on May 25, 2006.

Year	Civilians	SFs	Maoists	Total
2007*	55	0	40	95
2006	61	181	238	480
2005	231	310	1307	1848

As the CPN-Maoist came over-ground to join the mainstream political process after its agreements with the Government, it revived its militant youth wing, the YCL in November 2006. The YCL, which was formed by the CPN–Maoist at some point (there is no definite information on the year of its creation) during the ‘people’s war’ as an affiliate to provide support and energy to the ‘revolution’, is presently involved in activities including intimidation, extortion, looting, abduction attacks on members and cadres of other political parties. The YCL has reportedly received extensive training in unarmed combat and cadres openly carry knives, sticks, iron bars and other improvised weapons and have paraded themselves around the countryside and the Kathmandu region without fear or restriction since the CPA. Reports indicate that the YCL "is a group of highly trained commandos of the Maoists who, instead of being sent to the cantonments, have been deliberately kept in the open by the party high command to meet exigencies." It is also believed that the reactivation of the YCL and the appointment of top Maoist commanders as its leaders at a time when the United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) is conducting the verification of arms and armies of the Maoists is evidently a part of the grand strategy to keep Maoist cadres outside the scope of UNMIN scrutiny and to use their energies to dominate the CA elections.

The UNMIN has been monitoring the verification of the arms and armies of the Maoists in each and every cantonment of the PLA. This has certainly troubled and angered the Maoists, as the UNMIN found large numbers of child soldiers in the Maoists ‘Army’. As the UNMIN term is due to end on January 23, 2008, the Government decided to extend its term by six months. At this point, however, the Maoists have raised question marks on the UNMIN’s role. Senior Maoist leader Ram Bahadur Thapa a.k.a. Badal alleged that UNMIN was going beyond its mandate and behaving like activists and journalists. Badal also accused the UNMIN of being involved in the process of dissolving the PLA, instead of working for the merger of two armies of Nepal.

While the YCL continues with its intimidation across the country, other pro-Maoist groups have also pitched in. The Buddhist ethnic group, Nepal Rashtriya Tamang Mukti Morcha (Tamang National Liberation Front), is pressurizing the Government by demanding autonomy and a republic. They have organised strikes and shut downs in the Kathmandu, Makawanpur, Sindhupalchowk, Kavrepalanchowk, Makawanpur, Dhading, Nuwakot and Rasuwa Districts. Similarly, another Maoist-affiliated organisation, the Samyukta Ganatantrik Dalit Mukti Morcha (United Democratic Dalit Liberation Front), comprising members of the dalit (lower caste Hindus) community, is demanding proportional representation for dalits in the impending election, and a republic.

Earlier, on January 15, 2007, all Members of the Interim Parliament, including 83 Maoist representatives, were sworn in, marking the commencement of a new phase in Nepal’s politics. While in Parliament, however, the Maoists used various pressure tactics on the Government to weaken and subdue other parties in the Alliance. Finally, they quit the Interim Government on September 18, stating that their twin demands – a proportional representation system to be adopted for the Constituent Assembly (CA) elections and the declaration of the country as a Republic by the Interim Parliament before the CA elections – were non-negotiable. The Maoists quit the Government as no consensus could emerge on their demands even after repeated rounds of talks. On October 21, Prime Minister G. P. Koirala said that the Nepali Congress is ready for a ‘commitment proposal’ to announce a republic after the Constituent Assembly election, but is opposed to a fully proportional representation system as demanded by the Maoists. Koirala also stated that the Maoist proposal to adopt a fully proportional representation system would not be accepted by the Nepali Congress under any circumstances.

The much-hyped CA polls, which were originally scheduled for June 2007, and then rescheduled for November 22, were deferred indefinitely after the Eight Party Alliance [the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) plus the Maoists] failed to reach any consensus over the two key Maoist demands. Strongly opposed by the NC, which is the largest party in the Interim Parliament, the Maoists called for a special session of Parliament. After prolonged deliberations, the House, through a majority voice vote, passed the amendment proposal of the Communist Party of Nepal – Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) which directed the Government to immediately determine all necessary procedures to proclaim the country a republic and to take concrete steps in this regard. The Interim Parliament also decided to adopt a fully proportional representation system for the CA polls. The parliamentary voting clearly demonstrated a unity of the Left parties, with the CPN-UML and the Maoists supporting each others’ proposals. Under this arrangement, the Maoists withdrew their motion for immediate declaration of a republic and supported the CPN-UML's proposal for a ‘federal republic’. In return, the CPN-UML supported the Maoists proposal of a fully proportional electoral system. However, these motions cannot be implemented without amending the Interim Constitution by a two-third majority of the House, which remains impossible without the NC’s support. However, as the proposals have been approved by the Interim Parliament by a majority voice vote, Koirala faces a measure of moral pressure to act quickly on these issues, despite his party’s strong line against the proposals.

But without any significant initiative in this direction by the Koirala Government, Prachanda issued a ‘48-hour ultimatum’ on December 13, stating that the Maoists would start a ‘new movement’ from December 16 and seek to reshuffle the cabinet if their demand of abolition of the monarchy was not met. He also repeated his stand that his party would rejoin the Interim Government only on condition that his party was given the position of Senior Deputy Prime minister and that the Home, Defence and Finance Ministries be shared among the three major parties.

The emergence of armed groups in the volatile Terai region has multiplied the woes of the embattled Government, with sporadic violence and armed activity continuing throughout the year. Killings, abductions, violence, and disruptive political demonstrations and strikes continue in the region without any sign of relief for its beleaguered people. Currently, there are approximately 20 armed groups operating in the Terai with diverse agendas. The most prominent among these are: the Madheshi Janadhikar Forum (MJF, also known as Madheshi Peoples’ Rights Forum) and the two factions of the Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM, Democratic Terai Liberation Front) led by Jaya Krishna Goit (JTMM-G) and Nagendra Kumar Paswan a.k.a. Jwala Singh (JTMM-J), respectively. With well-trained armed militias, these groups are currently orchestrating unrest in the region, engaging in killings, abduction, looting and extortion. Other active entities include the JTMM – Bisfot Singh faction, Madheshi Rashtriya Mukti Morcha (Madheshi National Liberation Front), Madheshi Mukti (Liberation) Tigers, Terai Cobra, Terai Baagi (Rebels), Terai Army, Madheshi Virus Killers Party and the Royal Defence Army.

On December 4, 2007, the breakaway faction of the Nepal Sadbhawana Party (NSP) led by Rajendra Mahato unveiled its militant youth wing called Madhesh Raksha Bahini (Madhesh Security Brigade) at Birgunj in the Parsa District. The party’s district secretary, Shiva Patel, said the cadres were trained in self-defence tactics such as using lathis (batons), judo and karate and claimed that there were 23,000 such members across the country. On December 7, four parties of in the Terai region, MJF led by Bhagyanath Gupta, Dalit Janajati Party, Madhesi Loktantrik Morcha (Madheshi Democratic Party) and Loktantrik