Tainted Recovery | Unfinished Business | South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR), Vol. No. 10.22
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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 10, No. 22, December 5, 2011

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT


INDIA
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Manipur: Tainted Recovery
Veronica Khangchian
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On November 30, 2011, a bomb explosion in Imphal East killed a rickshaw puller and injured four persons, just three days before a scheduled visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to the Manipur capital. Earlier, on November 17, two persons were injured in a blast in front of a scrap shop in Imphal West District. On the same day, unidentified militants lobbed a hand grenade in Dewland Market in Ukhrul District, injuring two ‘non-locals’. On November 6, four labourers were injured when unidentified militants lobbed a hand grenade at their makeshift tent along the Dingku Road opposite the under-construction Inter State Bus Terminus at Khuman Lampak in Imphal East District.

Despite a dramatic decline in fatalities in the State, it is evident that the militants continue to possess the wherewithal to execute attacks at will. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, a total of 33 explosions took place in 2011, killing seven persons and injuring 49, in comparison to 47 explosions in 2010, killing four and injuring 19. Clearly, the intensity of these attacks has increased, though their frequency has diminished.

Crucially, despite a steep decline in the number of overall fatalities from 138 in 2010 to 59 in 2011 (all data till December 4), what is noticeable is that the number of civilians and Security Force (SF) personnel killed has remained more or less the same. The numbers suggest that the militants continue to operate freely, and that the SFs may well have wound down pressure against the rebels. Militant fatalities have registered a steep decline, and, while 47 encounters between SFs and militants were recorded by the SATP database in 2010, just nine were noticed in 2011.

Insurgency related Fatalities in Manipur: 2001-2011

Years
Civilians
Security Forces
Militants
Total
2001
70
25
161
256
2002
36
53
101
190
2003
27
23
148
198
2004
40
41
127
208
2005
138
50
143
331
2006
107
37
141
285
2007
150
40
218
408
2008
131
13
341
485
2009
77
18
321
416
2010
26
8
104
138
2011*
22
10
27
59
Source: SATP, 2011, *Till December 4, 2011

At least 134 incidents of extremist violence were reported in Manipur through 2011, as compared to 177 in 2010. Extortion remains a major point of concern in the State, with SATP recording 40 extortion related incidents during the year, as against 33 in 2010 (these numbers would reflect no more than a small fraction of extortion-related activities in the State, most of which go unreported, with a high degree of compliance by targeted individuals and organisations). On May 2, 2011, the screening of films in cinema halls in Imphal was suspended following threats and extortion demands by militants. Employees of cinema halls protested against threats by the Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP), who demanded INR 1 million from each of the cinema halls in the Imphal area.

Despite the slowdown in counter-insurgency operations, the SFs have managed to eliminate some top militant leaders. In a significant success, the ‘commander-in-chief’ of the ‘Military Task Force’ faction of the Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP-MTF), Chirom Tiken Meitei alias Sunil Meitei, who had escaped from the lockup of Porompat Police Station on October 3, 2011, was killed by Imphal West Police commandos on October 11, 2011,  during an operation conducted at Yumnam Huidrom Awang Leikai in Imphal West District, where he was taking shelter in an underground hideout inside the house of one Longjam Shyam. Sunil Meitei was arrested by the SFs from Ejipura in Bangalore (Karnataka) on June 29, 2011, and was brought to Imphal on July 21, 2011. The 'commander-in-chief' of the ‘Military Council’ faction of KCP (KCP-MC), identified as Nongthombam Anand alias Malemnganba, was also arrested by the Delhi Police from Bangalore on May 5, 2011, following investigations into the April 1, 2011, seizure of 200 kilograms of ephedrine worth INR 20 million from an alleged KCP-MC militant, identified as Napoleon.

Further, the State recorded as many as 526 arrests in 2011, as compared to 990 in 2010. The arrested militants prominently belonged to different factions of KCP (202); People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK, 84); Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL, 56); People’s Liberation Army (PLA, 50); United National Liberation Front (UNLF, 40); National Socialist Council of Nagaland – Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM, 17); United Tribal Liberation Army (UTLA, 15); People’s United Liberation Front (PULF, 14); and United People’s Party of Kangleipak (UPPK, 8). 

A total of at least 210 militants also surrendered in 2011 (till December 4), as compared to 221 in 2010. In the most significant surrender of the year, 40 militants of the Umar Farooque faction of the PULF, including its leader Umar Farooque alias Muhammad Mujib-ur-Rehman alias Ningthem, and its top leadership, surrendered before the Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh at Mantripukhri in Imphal West District, on June 14, 2011. Other PULF leaders who surrendered included 'vice-chairman' Muhammad Kalimudin; 'general secretary' Muhammad Abdul Zamber alias Belan Khan; ‘army commander-in-chief' Muhammad Jurzaman alias Danny; 'chief project officer' Y. Nabachandra alias Shamu; 'finance secretary' Muhammad Abdul Kadir alias Ipa alias Nizam; 'publicity secretary' Muhammad Syed Rehman alias Muhammad Rohit alias Sahid Mustaq; and 'organisation secretary' Muhammad Muzafar Ali alias Amou alias Dawat. Further, on June 27, 2011, 33 cadres belonging to four different militant outfits laid down arms at a surrender ceremony held at Leimakhong Garrison in the Sadar Hills of Senapati District. The surrendered cadres included Pakan Revolutionary Army (PRA) 'commander-in-chief' ‘Brigadier’ Molum Anal alias Jetky and 21 cadres of the outfit.

The visible slowdown in the SFs offensive against the militants is largely attributed to state’s approach to militancy, with priority being given to furthering the talks process and encouraging more and more militants to surrender or enter into negotiations with the Government.

In a major development, on October 27, 2011 Chief Minister Ibobi Singh welcomed 43 members of the United Tribal Liberation Army (UTLA), including its president Seipu alias Isheal, who had shown eagerness to ink a Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreement. The outfit, which operates from the Vangai Range and Nungba sub division in Tamenglong District, and Jiribam in Imphal East District, had earlier approached the Army’s 57 Mountain Division, based at Leimakhong in the Sadar Hills of Senapati District for an SoO agreement. Though both the State Government and the Army accepted the request, the group is yet to sign the deal. Such an agreement would bring the largest number of constituents of a single underground organization into the national mainstream in recent times. If UTLA signs the pact, the number of groups to come under peace agreements in Manipur would go up to 20. Thus far, 19 groups under two umbrella organisations – the Kuki National Organisation and the United Peoples Front – have been living in designated camps since 2005. Earlier, on August 16, leaders of Kuki groups which are signatories to SoO agreements, held talks with officials of the Centre and State Governments at New Delhi, and agreed to a further extension of the agreements for another year, with effect from August 21.

Some recent developments, however, suggest that rivalry among militant groupings may undermine the peace efforts. Significantly, a new Manipur-based Naga outfit, the Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF) with an armed wing, the Zeliangrong Tiger Force (ZTF), was created on February 25, 2011. Clashes between the outfit, a breakaway group formed by deserters from NSCN-IM, National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K) and Naga National Council (NNC), have, so far, resulted in seven deaths (six NSCN-IM and one ZUF militant), as well as six persons injured, besides other incidents of violence. 

Meanwhile, ethnic rivalries again came to the forefront with the revival of the Sadar Hills District demand by the Sadar Hills District Development Committee (SHDDC), and subsequent protests by the Nagas. The SHDDC imposed an economic blockade on the two National Highways (NH) – NH-39 (renamed NH 2, Imphal-Dimapur) and NH-53 (renamed NH 37, Imphal-Jiribam) – of Manipur on August 1, 2011, and lifted this crippling shut in only after 92 days, at midnight on October 31, after the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the State Government. The United Naga Council (UNC) imposed a counter economic blockade along the NH 39 and 53 as well as NH 150, which links Manipur with Kohima in Nagaland and Aizawl in Mizoram, from August 21, demanding the non-inclusion of ‘Naga lands’ in the proposed Sadar Hills District. The UNC lifted its blockade after 100 days, in the morning of November 29, following an assurance from the Union Ministry of Home Affairs that a separate Sadar Hills District would not be granted without the consent of the Nagas.

Adding to the problem, the demand for an ‘Alternative Arrangement’ for the Nagas living in Manipur persisted, with no resolution. Violence came to the forefront with the NSCN-IM targeting Nagas who participated in the Autonomous District Council (ADC) elections held on May 26 and June 2, 2010. On August 1, 2011, five persons were killed and eight were injured, when militants triggered a powerful Improvised Explosive Device (IED) explosion near a barber’s shop at Sanghakpam Bazaar in Imphal East District. The explosive, planted on a two-wheeler, killed two Manipuri girls and two persons from Bihar – the barber and his son. On August 2, 2011, Chief Minister Ibobi Singh announced that the NSCN-IM was behind the blast, and revealed the identity of the fifth person killed in the incident as an active cadre of the NSCN-IM, Anthony. The Chief Minister noted, further, that the NSCN-IM cadre, who rode the scooter with the explosives, may have had a specific target, but the device possibly exploded prematurely. The Chief Minister claimed that the blast was aimed at the members of the ADC at a nearby District Councils Guest House complex. The explosion reportedly occurred just after the vehicles of ADC members had passed the spot. Earlier, on July 23, 2011, suspected NSCN-IM militants exploded a bomb at the ADC office in Ukhrul District, bordering Myanmar. On May 28, 2011, three persons were injured when a powerful bomb exploded at a Sports Stadium (Khuman Lampak) Complex in Imphal West District. The blast was apparently intended to target members and officials of the ADC, who were functioning from this location due to NSCN-IM threats.

The NSCN-IM has, in fact, increased its role in the Manipur insurgency with 16 of 59 killings in 2011 associated with the group. In 2010, out of a total of 138 fatalities, the NSCN-IM was involved in only one incident. Reports now indicate that major Meitei insurgent outfits – ethnic rivals of the Naga groups – in the State are making serious efforts to form a “united front” in pursuit of their own ethnically polarized goals.

In another significant development, on September 24, 2011, the UNC elected Lohrii Adani as its new ‘president’, along with five ‘council members’, and reaffirmed its commitment to pursue the demand for an ‘Alternative Arrangement’. The UNC also directed all the members of the ADC to vacate their positions in order to strengthen their movement. On June 30, 2011, the UNC demand for an ‘alternative arrangement’ for the Nagas living in Manipur received a severe blow, with both the State and Central Governments categorically setting aside this option during tripartite talks held in Senapati District. The outcome of these talks was in line with Chief Minister Ibobi Singh’s earlier declaration that a separate administrative model for the Nagas of Manipur was out of question.

Another disturbing element was the evolving linkages between the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) and some Manipuri militant groups. A November 25, 2011, news report stated that the most peaceful State in the Northeast, Mizoram, had allegedly been used as a meeting point by Maoists and leaders of the PLA. The National Investigation Agency (NIA), which was probing the PLA’s activities since September 23, 2011, discovered that a meeting had been held between the outfit’s and Maoist leaders at Champhai in Mizoram on July 15, 2010. The NIA disclosed that a group of PLA leaders had also imparted arms training to Maoists in the Saranda Forest in Jharkhand, from September 11 to November 20, 2010. The PLA had allegedly trained Maoists in basic military tactics, guerrilla warfare, ambush and wireless communication skills, and that more such training sessions were scheduled for 2012. The NIA was entrusted by the Centre to investigate the larger conspiracy behind PLA’s alleged plans to ‘destabilise India’ with the help of Maoists and other like-minded militant groups of the Northeast, and also to conduct a probe into PLA’s nexus with China.

An official source cited in earlier media reports, stated further, "ISI [Inter Services Intelligence] and PLA are in touch and supplying Maoists with arms. They are supposedly using China as the alternative route." These revelations were made by two top PLA leaders, who were arrested in New Delhi on October 1, 2011. Reports indicate that the PLA was trying to forge a ‘Strong United Front’ (SUF) along with the CPI-Maoist and Kashmiri militants, backed by ISI and China.

Meanwhile, ethnic extremist groupings continue to seek to expel ‘outsiders’ from the State. The ‘military affairs secretary’ of the Lanheiba faction of KCP-MC, on March 3, 2011, urged all ‘non-locals’ to leave the State. The release further declared that the decision was a part of the group’s Operation Clear Cut which imposed several strictures, including ban on sale of land and property to outsiders, on the employment of ‘non-locals’, on the renting out of living quarters and transportation of non-locals within and outside the State, and a demand for all ‘non-locals’ to close shop. Significantly, three people were killed and nine injured in five incidents of violence against outsiders in 2011, as compared to nine killed and four injured in 12 such incidents in 2010. In one such incident, KCP-MC exploded a bomb at the Ananda Singh Academy near Raj Bhavan in Imphal East District on March 10, 2011, where President Pratibha Patil stayed during her two day visit to Manipur. However, no casualty was reported in the blast. KCP-MC later asserted that, while the blast was carried out to protest visit of President, it was also a part of the outfit’s campaign to expose the Central Government’s alleged ‘covert agenda’ of pushing ‘non-locals’ into Manipur.

Despite a significant deceleration in violence, the chaotic scenario of Manipur’s multiple insurgencies and the ethnic polarization in the State continues to hold out grave threats to peace in the State, even as each effort of accommodation attracts a backlash from rival ethnic extremist formations, constructing a perverse process of forward and regressive movements that appear to cancel each other out over time. The relief afforded by declining violence in Manipur continues to be tainted by the unresolved ethnic tensions in the State, and the Government’s inability to effectively neutralize the polarized and violent militant formations claiming to ‘represent’ divergent ethnic interests.

SRI LANKA
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Unfinished Business
Research Desk
Institute for Conflict Management

Few countries torn by persistent and bloody ethnic war for decades, have recovered such a semblance of normalcy and equilibrium – albeit not of mutual ethnic understanding or perfect accommodation – as has Sri Lanka since the comprehensive defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in May 2009. Despite shrill concerns articulated by the 'international community’ on the possibility of the extended internment of displaced Tamils, the Government of Sri Lanka (GOSL) moved quickly on their resettlement and rehabilitation, with more than 97 per cent of persons displaced by the conflict resettled in their places of origin in the Northeast by November 17, 2011. Of the 280,000 internally displaced people, over 270,000 have already returned home under the Government's National Resettlement Strategy.

There were also strong ‘international’ apprehensions regarding the treatment of the remnants of LTTE cadres. However, of 11,500 terrorists who surrendered or were arrested at the end of the war in 2009, 8,500 have been rehabilitated and reintegrated, while roughly 3,000 accused of war-crimes continue under detention. On January 18, 2011, President Mahinda Rajapakse appointed a four-member Committee to study the cases of detained LTTE suspects and to recommend suitable action to expedite the cases against them. The Committee was appointed following a recommendation made by the Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation Commission (LLRC) in its Interim Report. On September 26, External Affairs Minister G.L. Peiris stated that scores of cadres of the LTTE were likely to be prosecuted for crimes committed during the three-decade conflict that ended in 2009.

There has, moreover, been a remarkable resurrection of democratic structures across the country, including conflict-ravaged Northern and Eastern Sri Lanka. Since the end of war the Government has conducted the General Elections of April 8 and April 20, 2010, which recorded a 61.26 per cent voter turnout. The Presidential election took place on January 26, 2010, and witnessed 74.49 per cent polling. More importantly, elections for local bodies across the country, including the war-ravaged Northern area, were concluded peacefully in 2011. Elections for 299 out of the 335 local bodies were conducted in two phases (March 17 and January 23) in 2011. Elections for 11 local bodies had been held in the Northeast in 2008-09, and for another 23 local bodies, including the Municipal Councils of Colombo, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya, had been postponed under the Public Security Ordinance (PSO) due to the Cricket World Cup and other reasons, as noted by Election Commission. The elections for all but one Provincial Council have also been conducted. Elections to the Northern Provincial Council (NPC) are yet to be held, with the Government arguing that these must be preceded by a completion of the resettlement process.

The wounds of the past, however, continue to rankle, and an ethnic reconciliation and political settlement remain elusive. On November 23, 2011, the Sri Lankan Parliament passed a motion to set up a Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC), a 31-member quasi-judicial body comprising 19 members nominated by the UPFA and 12 by the Opposition, to formulate a political solution to the country's ethnic issue. Soon after, the Leader of the House, Minister Nimal Siripala De Silva, requested the Chief Opposition Whip John Amaratunga to hand over the list of names of Opposition members to be appointed to the Committee. The constitution of the PSC has, however, been delayed due to the failure of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) to hand over names of its representatives.

The TNA had earlier alleged that the PSC was no more than a delaying tactic. President Mahinda Rajapakse, however, denied the allegation and argued that the PSC could work within a time frame to reach its mandated conclusions. Earlier, on August 4, 2011, the Government had rejected TNA’s two-week ultimatum to come out with ‘devolution’ details, arguing that it had now embarked on the process to establish the PSC to define the ‘political solution’. The TNA had set the deadline earlier that day, during the course of 10th round of talks, the first round of which commenced on January 10, 2011.

Meanwhile, TNA raised various objections regarding the resettlement policies, accusing the Government of a deliberate ploy to change the demographic profile of the northern and eastern parts of the country where ethnic Tamils were a majority. Accordingly, TNA politicians on October 17, 2011, staged a protest in northern Vavuniya town to highlight how new Sinhala majority settlements were being pushed by the Government in the country's northern and eastern regions. The Government, however, denied these allegations. Later on October 24, 2011, the TNA filed a Fundamental Rights petition before the Supreme Court against the Government's move to register the lands in the North and East. Under National Land Title Registration Program implemented by the Government in 2007, all the land in the country was to be surveyed and demarcated to ensure their ownership. The land-owners, accordingly were instructed to inform the authorities about their lands following the receipt of a title Certificate from the Government. TNA, however, complained that the measure was in operation only in the North and the East (dominated by the Tamil minority) and not in other parts of the country. Consequently, TNA interpreted this move as an aggressive colonization process undertaken by the Government to dilute the Tamil dominance in the North and the East.

Allegations of excesses and brutalities committed on Tamils, both civilians and militants, by the Sri Lankan Security Force (SLSF) also continue to haunt the Government, with the Tamil Diaspora and various international human rights groups stridently pushing this line. One prominent initiative in this direction was the three-member Panel of Experts, headed by Marzuki Darusman, appointed by the United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in 2010  to advise him on human rights and humanitarian law violations during the last phase of Sri Lanka's civil war. The Darusman Panel handed  over its Report on April 12, 2011, to the UN Chief, accusing both the LTTE and the Sri Lanka Army of committing war-crimes. The Panel said there were "credible allegations" of serious violations of international law by Government Forces and the LTTE "some of which would amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity." The Darusman Report was finally released on April 25, 2011, along with a statement by Ban Ki-moon. In his statement, the UN Secretary General said that, though he could not order an international investigation into the deaths, the UN would, nevertheless, hold an inquiry on events in the final months of the war, following criticism by the Darusman Panel that more could have been done to save lives. Welcoming the report, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay, on April 27, 2011, called for further international investigation on alleged war crimes. However, no such further investigation has been reported so far. Sri Lanka has rejected the Darusman Report as being ‘fundamentally flawed’ and based on ‘biased material’ presented without verification. A statement issued by the Government of Sri Lanka (GoSL) added, further, “The public release of the Report at this stage is divisive, and disrupts our efforts to reinforce peace, security and stability in Sri Lanka. It feeds into the political agendas of interested parties.”

Earlier, the President had appointed a fact finding committee, the LLRC , on May 15, 2010, to allegations of human rights violations by the SLSF. The Commission submitted its final report to the President on November 20, 2011. The LLRC report, which, President Mahinda Rajapakse claimed, would be credible, unlike the Darusman Report, is to be placed before Parliament in December 2011.                   

Yet another cause of concern for Sri Lanka through 2011 were the continuous reports of the overseas activities of cadres and sympathizers of the LTTE. Sri Lankan politicians, Armed Force officers, diplomats and intellectuals have been repeatedly emphasizing the clandestine agenda of overseas elements of LTTE and the potential threat they constitute to Sri Lanka. On August 1, 2011, the Sri Lankan Government updated a request to the European Union (EU) to list front organizations of the LTTE as terrorist entities. The Sri Lankan Embassy at Brussels disclosed that the request was made on July 28, 2011, as the EU re-listed the LTTE as a terrorist entity through a regulation implemented by the Council on July 18, 2011. According to reports, individuals arrested by European and other authorities in 2010 and 2011 had been found to be members of LTTE-affiliated groups such as the Tamil Coordinating Committee (TCC), the Tamil Rehabilitation Organization (TRO), and the Tamil Youth Organization (TYO). Significantly, on May 21, 2011, a Norway-based leader of the LTTE, Perinpanayagam Sivaparan alias Nediyawan, was arrested by the Netherlands Police and produced in a court in Oslo, Norway.

More worryingly, a report released by the US Department of State on August 18, 2011, claimed that overseas cadres of LTTE continued to procure weapons, while the LTTE Diaspora remained persistent in supporting the organization financially. It stated that, despite its military defeat in Sri Lanka at the hands of Government Forces, the LTTE's international network of financial support continue to exist. Meanwhile, the Commander of Sri Lanka Army Eastern Command Major General Boniface Perera on July 1, 2011, had warned that armed groups in the Eastern Province would suffer unless they surrendered all their weapons.

Sri Lanka’s tryst with terrorist violence is clearly over for the time being, and the nation is enjoying a cherished respite after decades of bloodshed. The surviving vestiges of the LTTE, both within and without, remain insignificant, and do not constitute any imminent or substantial threat to the security and sovereignty of the nation. The real challenge the country faces is to end the age old bad blood between the majority Sinhalese and the minority Tamil communities. It is altogether unrealistic to expect a magical and immediate resolution in this context, but the tentative steps in this direction do suggest an unfortunate ambivalence, on the part of both the country’s majority Sinhala and minority Tamil leaderships.



NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
November 28 - December 4, 2011

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

  

Manipur

1
0
1
2

Left-wing Extremism

  

Bihar

1
0
0
1

Jharkhand

3
9
0
12

Maharashtra

0
1
0
1

Odisha

1
0
0
1

Total (INDIA)

6
10
1
17

PAKISTAN

  

Balochistan

5
0
1
6

FATA

4
0
44
48

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

1
1
7
9

Punjab

0
4
0
4

Sindh

3
0
0
3

Total (PAKISTAN)

13
5
52
70
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH

No political motive behind war trial, says Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina categorically said that the trial of the war criminals was not being held out of political motivation, but on a popular public demand to deliver justice to the victims of war crimes. She added that the trial would conform to international standards and the Government was committed to a fair and impartial trial. Daily Star, November 29, 2011.


INDIA

Terror cell busted as Delhi Police arrest six Indian Mujahideen militants: Delhi Police investigators announced the neutralization of a terrorist cell that they claimed was responsible for a string of nationwide attacks in the year 2010. The Delhi Police's élite Special Cell announced that it had arrested six persons, including a Pakistani operative of Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM), identified as Muhammad Adil, on the suspicion of having carried out three major attacks: a shooting at Delhi's historic Jama Masjid in September, the bomb blats outside Bangalore's Chinnaswami Stadium in April and the bombing of the German Bakery in Pune in February. The Hindu, December 1, 2011.

45 cease-fire violations reported in 2011 along India-Pakistan border in Jammu and Kashmir: Government on November 29 informed the Lok Sabha (Lower House of Parliament) that 45 cease-fire violations were reported in 2011 along the India-Pakistan border in Jammu and Kashmir. 117 ceasefire violations were reported between 2009-11 along the Line of Control (LoC), of which 28 were in 2009, 44 in 2010 and 45 between January and November 2011, Minister of State for Home Mullapally Ramachandran said in a written reply. Asian Age, November 30, 2011.

Maharashtra tops in FICN haul with 85% of total seizure: In an estimate made by the Union Government, Maharashtra reported nearly 85% of the total seizure of Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICNs) in India during the year 2011. Government on November 29 informed the Lok Sabha (lower House of the Parliament) that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and State Police had recovered FICN worth over INR 810 million in Maharashtra out of total INR 960 million throughout India till October 31, 2011. Times of India, November 30, 2011.

Indian Mujahideen has sleeper cells in North Bihar, says IB: Sources in the Intelligence Bureau (IB) and State security agencies suspect that the Indian Mujahideen (IM) has established more than seven sleeper cells in North Bihar. "We have information that IM has established its base amongst youths - some of them even engineers - at Mirganj, Araria and Sitamarhi, in addition to Madhubani and Darbhanga. Often, the youths are lured with hawala money from across the border. Others are indoctrinated with videos of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, with which the Indian state has no connection," a source said. Times of India, December 4, 2011.

Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram warns about militants in Arunachal Pradesh: During an interview to the state-run Doordarshan television on December 2 Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram said that India needed to be vigilant about militants in Arunachal Pradesh and those that had sanctuary in China. "We know there is an arms bazaar on the border of Myanmar and China and Chinese weapons are smuggled through Myanmar into India," he said. DD India, December 3, 2011.

Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram makes fresh offer of talks to Maoists and Northeast militants: Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram warned insurgents that the State wouldn't bend before violence but offered to treat with "dignity" any outfit if they came for peace talks, whether they were Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) or rebels from the Northeast. The minister also rejected allegations that CPI-Maoist politburo member Mallojula Koteswara Rao alias Kishanji was killed in a fake encounter. Telegraph, November 30, 2011.

Pakistan's overt support to terror has diminished, says Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram: Union Home Minister P Chidambaram has said that Islamabad's overt support to State and non-State actors involved in cross-border terror has diminished. "I think they have realised that any overt support to state actors or non-state actors, if that is discovered, they will pay a heavy price. So I think overt support has certainly diminished. Covert support, I really can't make an assessment," Chidambaram said. Times of India, December 2, 2011.

'Karachi Project' to figure in NIA's charges: A project, codenamed 'Karachi Project', undertaken by the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) to spread terror in India using local recruits through Lashkar-e-Toiba's (LeT) network will soon find its place in the charge sheet to be filed by the National Investigating Agency (NIA). The NIA is to file the charge sheet against American-Pakistani terrorist David Coleman Headley and his accomplices, including serving and retired Army officials of Pakistan, in the Mumbai terror attack case (November 26, 2008, also known as 26/11). Times of India, December 2, 2011.


NEPAL

CA tenure extended by six months: A day before the expiry of its term, the Constituent Assembly (CA) got extension of its tenure by six more months on November 29. The parliamentary session endorsed the 11th constitution amendment bill proposed by the Government seeking a six-month extension of the CA term with a majority vote. This is the fourth time that the CA's term has been extended. Nepal News, November 30, 2011.

Regrouping of PLA cadres concludes in entire seven main cantonments: The regrouping of the members of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) concluded in all the seven main cantonment sites located in different parts of the country on December 1. According to the secretariat of the Army Integration Special Committee (AISC), a total of 16,508 combatants have been categorised as per their choices for three options - integration, voluntary retirement and rehabilitation package. Nepal News, December 2, 2011.


PAKISTAN

14 SFs and eight militants among 26 persons killed during the week in FATA: At least 20 militants were killed and two soldiers were injured in an operation conducted by the Security Forces (SFs) in different parts of Upper Orakzai Agency in Federally Administered Tribal Agencies (FATA) on December 3.

Eight militants were killed and a trooper was injured in a clash in Dabori area of Orakzai Agency on December 2.

Nine militants were killed and several others injured on December 1 when SFs pounded their hideouts in Akhun Kot, Barlas, Adokhel and other areas of Mamozai in Orakzai Agency.

Five militants were killed as clashes between two rival groups in Maylo village of Tirah valley in Khyber Agency. Dawn; Daily Times; The News; Tribune, November 29-December 5, 2011.

Millions of automatic weapons imported illegally, says Federal Board of Revenue: The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) unearthed a mega fraud pertaining to the import of 1,000 automatic weapons through mis-declaration and it is feared that millions of sophisticated weapons may already have been imported during the preceding years. A top official of the FBR under the condition of anonymity said that they apprehended two consignments, one coming from Ukraine and another from Turkey, through which automatic machine guns named as "Stichken" and "Zaxina", which had otherwise been declared as pistols. The News, November 30, 2011.

Al Qaeda claims responsibility for holding US hostage in Pakistan: Al Qaeda on December 1 claimed responsibility for the abduction of a 70-year-old American aid worker, Warren Weinstein, from his house in the eastern city of Lahore on August 13, and issued a series of demands for his release. In a video message posted on militant websites, al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri said Warren Weinstein would be released if the United States stopped airstrikes in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen. Dawn, December 2, 2011.

Washington attaches strings to military aid, says report: Amid an increasingly souring relationship, the United States Senate voted to attach strings to military aid to Pakistan while an independent think tank urged policymakers to continue 'robust' civilian assistance. American Senators unanimously approved an amendment by Democratic Senator Bob Casey aimed at blocking counterinsurgency aid to Pakistan until Islamabad takes aggressive steps to curb the use of roadside bombs, blamed for the deaths of US soldiers in Afghanistan. Tribune, December 2, 2011.

Pakistan pulls out of Bonn international conference on Afghanistan: Pakistan decided to boycott Bonn (Germany) international conference on Afghanistan in December, widening its protest over NATO cross-border attacks on November 26 and exacerbating a deep crisis in US ties. "Pakistan looks forward to the success of this conference but in view of the developments and prevailing circumstances has decided not to participate in the conference," a Government statement said.

Meanwhile, the Pakistan Army said that International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) carried out the cross-border attack on purpose and there are no expectations of any results coming from the inquiry. The statements were made at a media briefing by Chief of General Staff Lieutenant General Waheed Arshad and Director General (DG) Military Operations General Ashfaq. Daily Times; Tribune, November 30, 2011.

Stop intelligence sharing with NATO, warns JuD: Speakers at a protest rally, Defense of Pakistan, organised by Jama'at-ud-Dawa (JuD) on December 2 demanded that intelligence sharing with NATO forces in Afghanistan be stopped to avenge the killing of 24 Pakistani soldiers in November 26, 2011 attack in Mohmand Agency of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). They said banning the movement of supplies through Pakistan was an insufficient response. Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Jama'at-e-Islami (JeI) were also represented at the protest. Tribune, December 3, 2011.


SRI LANKA

TNA yet to name representatives to the PSC on political solution: Tamil National Alliance (TNA) is yet to hand in names of the party representatives who would be appointed to the parliamentary select committee (PSC) on finding a solution to the ethnic issue. The PSC received parliamentary approval in November 2011 and the Leader of the House requested the Chief Opposition Whip to hand over the list of names of the opposition members to be appointed to the Committee. However, the constitution of the PSC has been delayed due to the delay on the part of the TNA to hand over names of its representatives. Colombo Page, December 2, 2011.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

Publisher
K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


A Project of the
Institute For Conflict Management



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