Odisha: Fragile State | South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR), Vol. No. 10.37
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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 10, No. 37, March 20, 2012

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ASSESSMENT


INDIA
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Odisha: Fragile State
Ajai Sahni
Editor, SAIR; Executive Director, Institute for Conflict Management & SATP
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

In an eventful weekend in Odisha, two Italians were discovered to have been abducted by the Communist Party of India – Maoist (CPI-Maoist); two Policemen from the State’s Bomb Squad were killed, and a third was injured, while attempting to defuse a landmine planted by the Maoists at Alampada in the Koraput District; and a civil contractor was shot dead by the rebels in Bargarh District. Despite the many reverses the Maoists have suffered – especially in terms of loss of leadership – over the past years, their ability to plunge the State into a crisis of impotence appears to be undiminished. 

Much of this would have passed unnoticed, were it not for the abduction of the Italian duo – the first such incident orchestrated by the Maoists, involving foreigners – which set off strident speculation about a ‘shift in Maoist strategy’ and an imminent ‘escalation’  of Maoist operations.

The reality of the abduction, however, is that it is little more than an incident of opportunity – most likely a ‘one off’ event – for which the ‘victims’ are as responsible as the perpetrators. Boscusco Paolo, a small-time ‘adventure tour’ operator, and Claudio Colangilo, a tourist, had no business to be in the area where they were “arrested”, as a Maoist audio release to the media expressed it. Their offence, according to the Maoist release, was that like “hundreds of foreign tourists”, they "treat the local people as monkeys and objects of ridicule.” Indeed, in February 2012, after tour operators offered tours of the areas inhabited by the primitive and reclusive Bonda tribe, the State Government had restricted tours to all tribal areas in the State. Reports indicate that Boscusco had sought, and had been refused, permission to tour the tribal belt in the Saroda area of Ganjam District in the heavily Maoist-affected Andhra-Orissa Border Special Zone (AOBSZ), but had willfully chosen to ignore authorities.

The Maoists have raised a list of thirteen demands as their condition for release of Boscusco and Colangilo. Most of these reiterate demands raised earlier, during the abduction of Malkangiri District Collector R. Vineel Krishna, just over a year ago. Krishna was abducted on February 16, 2011, and remained in Maoist custody for eight days, to be released after the State Government accepted 10 of a 14-point charter of demands. In the present case, the Maoists initially rejected mediation on the grounds that the State Government had failed to fulfill the commitments it made in February 2011.

The demands now being raised by the Maoists prominently include an immediate halt to all anti-Maoist operations in the State, as well as the release of some 600 Maoists in jail, including Subashree Panda aka Milli, the wife of the local Maoist leader, Sabyasachi Panda, Secretary of the Odisha State Organising Committee, who controls the Bansadhara and Ghumsur ‘Divisions’, which include the Kandhamal and Ganjam Districts, the area Boscusco-Colangilo were moving through at the time of their abduction. Other prominent leaders whose release has been demanded include Gananath Patra, an elderly CPI – Marxist-Leninist (CPI-ML) leader, and advisor to the Maoist-backed Chasi Mulia Adivasi Sangha (CMAS)-Narayanpatna, who had already been granted conditional bail, with a restriction on his return to Narayanpatna, but who has refused to move out of jail; and Ashutosh Soren, said to be a member of the Maoist’s Central Military Commission (CMC), arrested from Raurkela in Sundargarh District on March 2, 2009.

At the time of writing, the Maoists had proposed three intermediaries to negotiate the release of the Italian duo: Narayan Sanyal, CPI-Maoist Politburo member, currently in Giridih Jail in Jharkhand; Dandapani Mohanty, one of the three negotiators nominated by the Maoists during the Vineel Krishna crisis; and Biswapriya Kanungo, Odisha-based human rights activist-cum-lawyer, who is also the advocate representing Sabyasachi Panda’s wife Subashree Panda. Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik had already made an appeal to the Maoists, asking them to release the Italians “on humanitarian grounds” at the same time insisting that his Government was willing to negotiate with the Maoists “within the ambit of the law”.

It is significant that, during the Vineel Krishna abduction episode, Union Home Minister (UHM) P. Chidambaram had advised Odisha Chief Minister Patnaik not to accept any demand leading to the release of jailed Maoists as this would set an ‘improper precedent’. On that occasion, Patnaik chose to act otherwise, and there is little reason to believe that the State Government will demonstrate any greater resolve in the present case, particularly since foreigners are involved, even though it is unlikely that the Maoists would be willing to inflict particular harm on the abductees.

There is little reason to believe that the abduction of the Italians represents any dramatic shift in Maoist strategy or tactics, or that such incidents are likely to become commonplace in the foreseeable future – unless encouraged by exceptional feebleness on the part of the state. Indeed, Sabyasachi Panda, who has claimed responsibility for the ‘operation’, is regarded as something of a maverick within the Maoist hierarchy, and has, on at least one occasion, attracted disciplinary action within the organization, in the wake of the Kandhamal riots of 2008. The riots followed the assassination, in August 2008, of Swami Laxmananda Saraswati of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad. Though Panda had been quick to claim the Saraswati killing at that time, in a media interview in February 2012, he admitted that “the timing of the killing of Laxmananda Saraswati in Kandhamal was a mistake,” and sought to shift the blame to “some cadres” who “became restless and killed him.” Reports in the wake of the Kandhamal riots suggested that Panda had acted without Politburo or CC sanction, and that he had briefly been expelled by the Party, though this narrative is given little credence by intelligence sources.

The Boscusco-Colangilo abduction may also be an ill-conceived bid by Panda to establish a greater dominance within the Maoist hierarchy, as he chafes under the control of ‘outsiders’ – leaders from Andhra Pradesh who occupy the most significant positions in the pecking order in Odisha. While Panda, as Secretary of the State Organizing Committee, is the most important Odia leader in the State, he is far from the most powerful Maoist leader in Odisha. He has dominant influence, at best, in four Districts – Rayagada and Gajapati in the ‘Bansadhara Division’, and Kandhamal and Ganjam in the ‘Ghumsur Division’ – and even within this jurisdiction, he remains under the overall command of Modem Balakrishna, a CC member from Andhra Pradesh. In any event, it is the Malkangiri and Koraput areas, currently controlled by Akkiraju Hargopal aka Ramakrishna aka RK, another CC member from Andhra, which lie at the heart of the Maoist insurgency in Odisha, and Panda has little influence there.

Significantly, despite a measure of operational stasis across and around these areas, there have been important Security Force (SF) successes in the recent past. Specifically, Chitrakam Reddy aka Sitru, an ‘area commander’ for Bhadhugoan in the Koraput District, was killed by the Police on January 26, 2012, at the Badamathur Village. Recent arrests include Chenda Bhusanam aka Ghasi, an important leader of the Andhra Odisha Border Special Zonal Committee (AOBSZC); Prashant alias Shiva Munda alias Lambu, the second in command in the Maoist hierarchy controlling the Saranda Forest in Jharkhand; Girish Mahato, who had been assigned to revive the organisation in the western Odisha Districts of Sambalpur and Deogarh; Rama Mahanta alias Dadhi Mahanta, ‘area commander’ for the Digha and Bhalulata areas in Sundargarh District; Kunduru Luhar alias Golapa, an 'area commander' in Digha;  Pitabas Singh Thakur, who worked with the Daraba Dalam (squad) of Chhattisgarh and was a close associate of Surendra, the Daraba Dalam commander who had allegedly masterminded the killing of 76 SF personnel in Dantewada District on April 6, 2010; and Satrughan Biswal alias Mangu alias Mohan, an active member of the Odisha state organising committee of the CPI-Maoist. In addition, Dunna Kesava Rao aka Azad, believed to be a ‘deputy’ to Sabyasachi Panda, surrendered in Hyderabad (Andhra Pradesh) on May 2011. Another two of Panda’s close associates have recently fallen into the state’s custody. Rajendra Kumar Ratia aka Suraj aka Sangram, who served as Panda’s bodyguard, surrendered before Police in the Ganjam District on February 3, 2012. A female Maoist, Malati Majhi aka Lata, who was also involved in Panda’s personal security, was arrested on February 15, 2012.

The wider AOB region is also being brought under sustained long-term pressure. Specifically, the Centre is speeding up projects to set up paramilitary and Special Forces bases in the north coastal Districts of Andhra Pradesh, abutting the most troubled areas in Odisha. The Border Security Force (BSF) is already in the process of establishing a base in Srikakulam, abutting Ganjam, Gajapati and Rayagada; while the India Reserve Battalion (IRB) is to establish a camp at Anandapuram in Viskhapatnam, abutting Koraput and Malkangiri. The Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) now plans to establish its regional base in the Kottavalasa mandal in the Vizianagaram, abutting Rayagada and Koraput.

In the current situation, it would appear that the State Government is moving, once again, towards accepting another humiliating capitulation. In itself, this would matter little – there can be no great loss of face in succumbing to blackmail when lives may (even arguably) be at stake. What is crucial, however, is the state’s response after the crisis is over. Indeed, far more than the current abduction, it is the conduct of the State Government and its intelligence and Police apparatus, since the Vineel Krishna abduction, that demands close scrutiny. Unfortunately, even the most cursory examination would indicate that, in the last year, Odisha has done little, in the first instance, to bring the guilty in that case to book; equally little to neutralize the Maoist threat; and almost nothing to ensure that such incidents do not recur, and that the state is not held hostage again and again. The Vineel Krishna episode, in fact, marks the abrupt deceleration of the very limited anti-Maoist operations in Odisha, and a widespread demoralization of State Police Forces. Given the current orientation of the State’s political and Police leadership, it seems unlikely that any dramatic change of strategy or operational intensity will follow the inevitable resolution of the present crisis. Under such circumstances, Odisha can only remain vulnerable to increasing Maoist disruption, particularly as violence escalates, with SF pressures building up along the State’s borders with Andhra Pradesh.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
March 12-18, 2012

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

 

Manipur

1
0
1
2

Nagaland

0
0
4
4

Left-wing Extremism

 

Chhattisgarh

0
3
0
3

Maharashtra

1
0
0
1

Odisha

1
2
0
3

Total (INDIA)

3
5
5
13

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

4
2
0
6

FATA

51
1
94
146

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

2
2
1
5

Punjab

1
4
0
5

Sindh

6
3
0
9

Total (PAKISTAN)

64
12
95
171
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH

Former ISI chief admits funding BNP during 1991 elections: A former Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) chief, Asad Durrani, has admitted that the spy agency had funded main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) during 1991 general elections as he was summoned to testify in a case before the Supreme Court (SC) of Pakistan on March 14. The SC issued notices to Durrani in a decade-old pending case of retired Air Marshal Asghar Khan. Financial Express, March 17, 2012.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina accuses BNP leader Khaleda Zia for trying to save the War Criminals: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on March 14 reiterated her resolve to try the War Criminals on the soil of Bangladesh. Addressing the opposition leader Khaleda Zia of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), she commented, "You cannot save them". She further alleged that the BNP chairperson and her husband, Ziaur Rahman, tried to save the killers of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. Daily Star, March 15, 2012.


INDIA

Maoists abduct two Italians in Odisha: Two Italians were abducted by the Communist party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres in the tribal-dominated Kandhamal-Ganjam region in Odisha. While the Maoists claimed responsibility for the abduction through some private news channels around midnight on March 17, there are reports that the Italians may have been abducted on March 14 itself. Setting a deadline for this evening (March 18), the Maoists demanded an immediate halt to combing operations by Security Forces and withdrawal of cases against tribals who, they claim, were arrested as Maoists. Indian Express , March 18, 2012.

India under threat of a series of attacks by LeT, says report: Investigations into the recent smashing of a Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) module by intelligence agencies has revealed that there is a growing concern among the top hierarchy of terror outfits about the sudden drop in militant activities in India, particularly in the Kashmir Valley and other major cities. This frustration was now creeping into the LeT ranks and they are now more determined than ever to carry out a 'big strike. Asian Age, March 13, 2012.

ISI fuelled the NE insurgency, admits ISI: The Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) has admitted before a three-member bench of the Pakistan Supreme Court headed by Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Choudhary to meddling in northeast India on March 14. Former ISI chief Asad Durrani made the admission before the bench during a hearing on the ISI's mandate. He also admitted ISI funding the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) during the 1991 general elections in Bangladesh. Daily Mail, March 16, 2012.

Manipur's PLA is providing training to Naxal groups in Jharkhand: The Manipur's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is providing training to Naxal [Left Wing Extremist] groups in Jharkhand, says report. "We had information that a group from People's Liberation Army Manipur had travelled to Jharkhand to provide weapons' training to Naxal groups operating here. According to our information a large number of cadres from PLA will join the red outfits here in their fight," said an unnamed senior Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) official. Times of India, March 18, 2012.

CPI-Maoist is establishing bases in Northeast, says Union Government: The Union Government has confirmed that Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) is making inroads into Northeastern States and that Centre is closely monitoring the situation. Union Minister of State (MoS) for Home Affairs, Jitendra Singh, said in Parliament that the Maoists in Assam have stepped up their activities. Assam Tribune, March 14, 2012.


NEPAL

Major political parties vow to ensure sustainable peace and timely constitution: The leaders of three major political parties - Nepali Congress (NC), Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) and Communist Part of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) - on March 13, during A meeting of the Constitutional Committee (CC) under the Constituent Assembly (CA), vowed to ensure sustainable peace and timely constitution as it was the last date (as per the CA's revised works schedule) to forge consensus on remaining contentious issued affecting constitution drafting. Nepal News, March 13, 2012.


PAKISTAN

94 militants and 51 civilians among 146 persons killed during the week in FATA: At least 26 terrorists were killed in air strikes by fighter jets in the bordering areas of Orakzai and Kurram Agencies in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on March 18. Fourteen bullet-riddled bodies were found in Speen Qabar area of Bara tehsil (revenue unit) in Khyber Agency, a day after Security Forces (SFs) left the area after an operation. In addition, SFs resorted to indiscriminate firing and shelling in Mir Ali tehsil (revenue unit) of North Waziristan Agency, killing five civilians, one of them a child, after two military convoys were attacked.

23 suspected militants were killed when Army planes targeted their positions in Dabori and Mamozai areas of Orakzai Agency on March 17. Also, eight terrorists were killed and several others were injured in aerial bombing in the areas of Samaa Bazaar, Toor Semath, Kagu Qamar, Mamuzai, Jabba, and Balaras of Orakzai Agency. Further, the volunteers of Tawheed-ul-Islam (TuI), a Zakhakhel-based group, killed three suspected militants involved in bomb blasts at Zakhakhel and Tirah areas of Khyber Agency. Elsewhere, three women were killed in a roadside bomb explosion, while two others sustained injuries at Mundi Kas area in Bara tehsil.

Eight civilians and six suspected militants, including an Afghan national, were killed during operation in Sipah area of Bara tehsil in Khyber Agency on March 14. In addition, at least six members of an anti-Taliban militia were killed and three others injured in an improvised explosive device (IED) blast during a meeting of tribal elders at Kotkai village of Mamond tehsil in Bajaur Agency. Also, US drones struck twice in the regions along the border with Afghanistan in South Waziristan Agency (SWA) on March 13, killing 15 militants, including two senior 'commanders'. Further, three persons were killed by unidentified militants in Tirah Kukikhel near Spean Khwar in Khyber Agency.

SFs killed eight militants during operations in different areas of Upper Orakzai Agency and destroyed three hideouts on March 13. Dawn; Daily Times; The News; Tribune, March 13-19, 2012.

Osama bin Laden wanted to attack the US President Barack Obama because that would lead the country into a crisis, reveal documents recovered from Abbottabad compound: Slain al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden had ordered his followers in Afghanistan and Pakistan to attack the aircraft of United States (US) President Barack Obama. Bin Laden wanted to kill the US President because "Obama is the head of infidelity and killing him automatically will make (Vice President Joe) Biden take over the presidency," according to the documents. Dawn, March 17, 2012.

Akbar Bugti wasn't murdered, he committed suicide, claims former President and APML chief Pervez Musharraf: Former President and All Pakistan Muslim League (APML) chief General (Retired) Pervez Musharraf on March 14 claimed that Nawab Akbar Bugti, the founder of Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP), was not murdered, but had committed suicide. However, Baloch leader Haribyar Marri denied Musharraf's claims and said that he wants to "escape" after perpetrating decade-long "atrocities" against Baloch locals. Dawn, March 15, 2012.

ISI always had political wing, says Defence Minister Ahmed Mukhtar: Defence Minister Ahmed Mukhtar said on March 12 that there has always been a political wing in the Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Prime Minister and the President will be informed about the agency's policies and requirements by newly-appointed ISI Director General Zahirul. Dawn, March 13, 2012.


SRI LANKA

Army to submit action plan for LLRC implementation: An Action Plan detailing how recommendations of the Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation Commission (LLRC) report could be implemented in the country's North, will soon be handed over to the Ministry of Defense by Sri Lanka Army. Acting Spokesman for the Sri Lanka Army (SLA), Brigadier G V Ravipriya, on March 12 said a board comprising senior officers of the SLA formulated the Action Plan on how to implement the recommendations stipulated in the LLRC report. Army Commander Lieutenant General Jagath Jayasuriya had appointed the board about a month ago to formulate the Action Plan, he said. Daily News, March 13, 2012.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

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K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


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