SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 11, No. 28, January 14, 2013

PAKISTAN

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Balochistan: Continuing Carnage
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

At least 117 persons were killed and over 216 injured in three separate bomb blasts in Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan, on January 10, 2013. At 8.30 pm, a suicide bomber blew himself up inside a snooker club on Alamdar Road, which has two Shia prayer halls. Bomb disposal squad officers said an estimated six to seven kilograms of explosive was used by the suicide bomber. Within a 10-minute gap, as Police, rescuers and media persons rushed to the site, another bomb fixed to a vehicle parked nearby went off. An estimated 100 kilograms of explosives was used in the second blast. The twin blasts killed 105 persons and injured another 169.

The Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) claimed responsibility for the attacks. In calls made to local journalists, LeJ spokesmen Abu Bakar Siddique disclosed that the first blast was carried out by a suicide bomber and the second was a bomb planted in a car that was triggered by remote control.

Earlier in the day, at 3.50 pm, a powerful bomb went off under a Frontier Corps (FC) vehicle near a public plaza and crowded food market at the busy Bacha Khan Chowk, killing 12 persons and injuring over 47. An estimated 25 kilograms of explosives was used in the bomb. As many as 13 vehicles were destroyed in the explosion. The United Baloch Army (UBA) claimed responsibility for the attack. 

Reacting to the twin blasts at Alamdar Road, Ali Dayan Hasan, the head of Human Rights Watch (HRW) in Pakistan, observed,

As Shia community members continue to be slaughtered in cold blood, the callousness and indifference of authorities offers a damning indictment of the state, its military and security agencies... 2012 was the bloodiest year for Pakistan’s Shia community in living memory and if this latest attack is any indication, 2013 has started on an even more dismal note.

According to data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), in 2012, well over 396 members of the Shia population were killed in 113 targeted attacks across Pakistan, of which 152 were killed in Balochistan alone (in 54 incidents). In 2011, 136 Shias were killed in 24 incidents across the country; 88 of them in Balochistan, in 11 such incidents.

Shia persecution across Pakistan and the state’s callousness has also been acknowledged by the Supreme Court (SC) in its interim order of October 12, 2012, castigating the Provincial Government for its failure to fulfil its duty to protect life and property, and to establish peace in Balochistan in particular. The Court had directed the Federal Government to ensure public security, and underlined the constitutional responsibilities and respective authority of both the Federal and the Provincial Governments. In a harsh critique of the Government, Balochistan Governor Zulfiqar Magsi, referring to the January 10, 2013, attacks, declared, on January 11, that after “such mayhem and carnage, the Government has no right to rule". On January 13, 2013, the Federal Government announced the imposition of Governor’s rule in Balochistan, effective January 14, 2013. Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf invoked Article 234 of the Constitution to promulgate Governor’s rule in the Province.

With Sindh and Gilgit Baltistan, Balochistan is the only region in Pakistan which has witnessed a rise in terrorism related fatalities in 2012. The Province witnessed 954 fatalities, including 690 civilians, 178 Security Force (SF) personnel and 86 militants in 418 incidents of killing in 2012, as against 711 fatalities, including of 542 civilians, 122 SF personnel and 47 militants in 294 incidents of killing in 2011, according to partial data compiled by SATP. The first 13 days of 2013 have already recorded 144 fatalities [these numbers are likely to be underestimates, as access to media and independent observers is severely restricted in Balochistan]. While overall fatalities recorded an increase of 34.17 per cent, civilian fatalities rose 27.30 per cent; SFs, 45.9 per cent; and militants, 82.97 per cent.

Since 2004, 222 civilian killings (123 in the South and 99 in the North) have been claimed by Baloch separatist formations such as the Baloch Republican Army (BRA), Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), Balochistan Liberation Tigers (BLT) and UBA. Islamist extremist formations, primarily the LeJ and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), claimed responsibility for the killing of 186 civilians, all in the North, mostly in sectarian attacks. 1,998 fatalities remain ‘unattributed’ since 2004, 662 in 2012, and 502 in 2011. A large proportion of the ‘unattributed’ fatalities are believed to be the result of enforced disappearances carried out by state agencies, or by their proxies, prominently including the Tehrik-e-Nafaz-e-Aman Balochistan (TNAB, Movement for the Restoration of Peace, Balochistan). Sectarian violence orchestrated by Islamabad-backed Islamist formations is also responsible for a significant proportion of civilian fatalities.

In comparison to 2011, when the Province witnessed 58 major incidents of killing (each involving three or more fatalities), 70 such incidents were recorded in 2012. In one such attack, on December 30, 2012, a car bomb exploded near a convoy of buses taking Shia pilgrims to Iran, on the RCD Highway in the Dringer area of the Mastung District of Balochistan, killing 20 persons and injuring 25 others.

The number of suicide attacks remained comparable between 2011 and 2012, though the resultant fatalities have almost halved – 60 fatalities in four attacks in 2011 as against 30 fatalities in three incidents in 2012. On the contrary, though the Province witnessed fewer bomb blasts, 148 in 2012 as compared to 194 in 2011, the resultant fatalities increased to 205 in 2012 as against 181 in 2011.

In 2012 there were fewer attacks on NATO convoys, though this was principally the consequence of the fact that the route through Chaman (Balochistan) and Khyber Pass [Khyber Agency in Federally Administered Tribal areas (FATA)] was closed for over six months, after the NATO attack on the Salala Check Post in the Mohmand Agency, FATA, on November 26, 2011, which killed 24 Pakistani soldiers. It was only after the United States ‘apologised’ for the attack that Pakistan ordered its customs authorities, on July 4, 2012, to reopen the supply routes to NATO forces stationed in Afghanistan, through the Chaman border. While the Province witnessed 59 attacks on NATO convoys in 2011, with 19 killings and 20 injuries, 2012 recorded just 10 such attacks, resulting in six persons injured. However, in the latest of such attacks, two drivers were killed and 10 NATO containers were damaged when several rockets were fired on a terminal near Hazarganji on the outskirts of Quetta, in the night of January 11, 2013.

Given the state of Governance, acts of violence were, crucially, not restricted to a few areas, but occurred in practically each one of the 26 Districts of the Province, including the capital, Quetta. Quetta bore the brunt of terrorism through year, with 289 terrorism-related incidents, including all the three suicide attacks that took place in Balochistan. Out of the 148 bomb blasts recorded, 49 were reported in Quetta. The provincial capital also accounted for 50 incidents of sectarian violence.

The number of SF personnel killed rose from 59 in 2010, to 122 in 2011, and further to 178 in 2012. In the deadliest of such attacks, on February 1, 2012, at least 15 personnel of the FC were killed and 12 were injured when militants belonging to the BLA attacked four FC check posts near the Margat coalmines in the Mach area of Bolan District. A BLA spokesperson, who introduced himself as Mirak Baloch, stated, "It is a reaction to the January 31, 2011, killings of granddaughter and great-grand-daughter of Nawab Akbar Bugti in Karachi." The Federal Ministry of Interior, on August 9, 2012, claimed that around 14 militant outfits, including BRA, Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), BLA and LeJ, were operating in the Province. Interestingly, there was no mention of any Taliban formation or al Qaeda.

As in previous years, rising extremism and violence have repeatedly demonstrated the presence of the Quetta Shura and al Qaeda networks in North Balochistan. Since 2009, at least 22 al Qaeda and two Afghan Taliban militants have been arrested in the region. The then-Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) General David Petraeus, on February 2, 2012, had emphasised that the US needed to be cautious on Pakistan’s ability and willingness to “go after” the Haqqani Network and those Taliban leaders present in Balochistan, known as the Quetta Shura. The Pakistan establishment, however, continues to brazenly deny this reality.

Meanwhile, the much publicised Aghaz-e-Haqooq-e-Balochistan (Initiation of the rights of Balochistan) package – which was approved by Pakistan’s Parliament on November 23, 2009, acknowledging the widespread deprivation and neglect that prevailed in the Province and set a three-year implementation deadline – has expectedly failed to deliver. Though Parliamentary Secretary Khurram Jahangir Watto, on October 5, 2012, claimed that 42 of its 61 points had already been implemented, there has, in fact, been little progress on the issue of provincial autonomy, which according to the package, should have been immediately addressed. Though a parliamentary committee to look into the proposals and recommendations regarding provincial autonomy has been formed, the committee is yet to reach to any conclusion. Similarly, the proposal regarding initiation of a political dialogue with all major stakeholders in the political spectrum, to bring them into the mainstream politics, has not been met, as Government failed to inspire trust in the Baloch nationalist groups. The Government is yet to release political prisoners, another proposal in the package. While a range of financial elements in the package have been announced, implementation on the ground remains, at best, marginal.

Anger among Baloch nationals continues to mount, both as a result of the continuing neglect of the province and the relentless campaign of ‘disappearances’ inflicted on dissidents by the state’s Forces and covert agencies. Through the year, the rebels continued to carry out attacks overwhelmingly targeting the economic infrastructure in the province, mainly gas pipelines, power pylons and railway tracks. The attacks remained principally non-lethal in intent. There were no deaths in 24 such incidents recorded through 2012. According to partial data compiled by SATP, there have been at least 194 incidents of sabotaging of gas pipelines since 2004.

The SF’s remain preoccupied with their “kill and dump” operations, while Islamabad continues to ignore the ground reality in the Province. The crisis continues to deepen, with Islamabad sustaining groups of Islamist and sectarian extremists, even as it seeks to crush the groups agitating to draw attention to the legitimate demands and genuine grievances of the people of Balochistan.

INDIA

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Maharashtra: Uncertain Gains
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

The level of violence perpetrated by the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) in Maharashtra has decreased in 2012 in terms of fatalities, in comparison to 2011, returning to levels comparable with 2010. According to partial data collected by South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the State witnessed a total of 40 fatalities – 21 civilians, 14 Security Force (SF) personnel and five Maoists – in Maoist-related violence in 2012, as against 69 fatalities – 34 civilians, 10 SF personnel and 25 Maoists – in 2011. The State reported just one major incident (involving three or more fatalities) in 2012, when Maoists detonated a landmine at Pustola village in Gadchiroli District on March 27, 2012, killing 13 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) troopers (12 died in the incident and one trooper later succumbed to injuries in hospital), and injuring another 28. There were five major incidents in 2011. 

Union Ministry of Home Affairs data indicate 45 fatalities in 2012 (as on November 30, 2012), including 27 civilians, 14 SF personnel and four Maoists; as against 57 fatalities – 44 civilians, 10 SF personnel and three Maoists – in the whole of 2011, in Maharashtra. 

In 2012, incidents of killing were reported from three Districts – Gadchiroli, Gondia and Aurangabad – though Gadchiroli dominates overwhelmingly. As many as 37 of the 40 fatalities (18 civilians, 14 SF and five Maoists) in the State – were reported from Gadchiroli alone.  Gondia had two civilian fatalities and Aurangabad had one. In 2011, fatalities had been reported from Gadchiroli (67), Gondia (1) and Nagpur (1). Fatality figures of the last three years suggest that civilian and SF fatalities have remained relatively high, though wide variations have been recorded in Maoist fatalities. However, the high Maoist fatalities reported in 2011 may be misleading, as very few bodies of those allegedly killed were actually recovered. Police believe that the woman Maoist killed in a December 4, 2012, encounter was Narmada Akka, a senior Maoist leader, though the Maoists have issued no clarification in this regard.

SATP data indicates that there were at least 24 incidents of exchange of fire between SFs and Maoists in 2012, of which 22 were in Gadchiroli and two in Gondia. The frequency of encounters increased towards the end of the year, with 11 encounters reported in just the last three months of 2012. The encounters resulted in the killing of at least four Maoists. The fifth Maoist’s buried dead body was recovered in Gadchiroli District, where he is believed to have been killed in an earlier encounter. Remarkably, the SFs did not suffer any fatalities in these encounters, though some troopers were injured. 13 of the 14 SF fatalities were the result of a single improvised explosive device (IED) attack, and the 14^th was shot dead when he was accompanying an ailing colleague to the health centre at Fulbodi Gatta village in Dhanora tehsil of Gadchiroli District. Apart from the March 27 IED attack on the CRPF, the Maoists did not trigger any other landmine/IED blast. However, an officer of the Bomb Detection and Disposal Squad (BDDS) was injured while defusing a land mine planted by the Maoists near Bhagvantrao School on the main road to Kamalpur village in Aheri sub-division of Gadchiroli District. 

During search and combing operations, the SFs made recoveries of arms, ammunition and other articles in nine instances – five in Gadchiroli, two in Gondia, and one each in Chandrapur and Raigad.

The Maoists engaged in at least seven incidents of arson through 2012 – five in Gadchiroli and two in Gondia – and one has already been recorded in 2013, in Gadchiroli. In one such incident a group of around 50 Maoists intercepted four tractors and three trolleys in the forest patch between Rajoli and Keshori in Gondia District and set them afire on April 12, 2012. In another incident an estimated 150 Maoists set ablaze a forest depot near Jimalgatta village in Gadchiroli District on May 14, 2012. In the latest incident on January 13, 2013, a group of around 40 Maoists set ablaze 27 vehicles at a road construction site near Lekha (Menda) village on the Godalvahi-Dhanora road in Gadchiroli District, some six kilometers from the State highway connecting Gadchiroli and Rajnandgaon (Chhattisgarh).

The Maoists abducted seven persons in four recorded incidents of abduction, three in Gadchiroli and one in Gondia.

In another eye-opener for the State, with inputs from the Andhra Pradesh Police, the Mumbai (Maharashtra) Police raided workshops near Mumbai, which were clandestinely manufacturing weapons for Maoists and seized several castings, believed to be intended for making hand grenades, rockets and other materials, and for fabricating Rocket Launchers (RLs). Police arrested four Maoists – Asim Kumar Bhattacharya (63), Dinesh Wankhede (30), Suman Gawde (40) and Paru Patel (40), from Dombivali, in this connection, and recovered over INR 2.3 million in cash, laptops, pen drives and books on manufacturing weapons.

Police made a total of 40 arrests of Maoists cadres and sympathizers in the State in 2012 (SATP data), as against 56 in 2011. Some of the significant arrests included the CPI-Maoist Chandrapur District in-charge, Pramod Godghate (30); and CPI-Maoist State Committee Member and Secretary of the Chandrapur Committee, Maruti Kurwatkar (31). Significantly, Police also arrested Venkatramma Reddy, a manager of Hyderabad's Sushee Infrastructure Private Limited, which was engaged in the Pranhita-Chevella Irrigation Project, a Maharashtra – Andhra Pradesh joint venture, along with two other persons – Chinmaya Soyam, a former sarpanch (head of Gram Panchayat, village level local self Government institution)of a village in the neighbouring Adilabad District of Andhra Pradesh, and Suryanarayan Parpatwar, a local Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader and the former chairman of Sironcha Panchayat Samiti [block level Panchayati Raj Institutions (PRI)] – on December 22. The trio was arrested in the Devalmari jungle of Gadchiroli while they were allegedly on a ‘clandestine mission’ to help Maoists in Gadchiroli District. Superintendent of Police Suvez Haque disclosed that the arrested persons “often brought aid for the Naxal dalam (squad) involved in Lankachen encounter”.

Further, eight Maoists, including two ‘platoon commanders’, surrendered in Maharashtra through 2012, as against 22 in 2011.

An analysis of reported incidents indicates that the Maoist have a very strong presence in Gadchiroli, a moderate presence in Gondia and Chandrapur, and a marginal presence in Pune, Thane, Mumbai, Raigad and Aurangabad Districts. A total of 92 Maoist-related incidents were reported from 11 Districts [Chandrapur, Gadchiroli, Gondia, Mumbai Suburban, Nagpur, Nandurbar, Nashik, Pune, Thane, Wardha, and Yavatmal] in Maharashtra, through 2011; while a total of 51 such incidents were reported from seven Districts [Amravati, Bhandara, Chandrapur, Gadchiroli, Gondia, Mumbai City and Nagpur] in 2010.  

Apart from the violence they perpetrated, the Maoists also stumped the administration when they subverted the democratic process in PRI in Gadchiroli. Threatening the PRI representatives through selective killings and abductions, the Maoists forced them to resign en mass between May and July, 2012. At least seven PRI representatives and one former PRI representative have been killed, and two former PRI members have been abducted. However, the situation has been maneuvered into a stalemate, with the State Government refusing to accept most of the resignations on the grounds that they were not in the prescribed format. The resignations of only two Panchayat Samiti (block level PRI) members in Etapali and one Zilla Parishad (District level PRI) Member in Bhamragarh were accepted as valid, and the posts were filled up during by-elections later in the year. Nevertheless, the system of local governance was paralysed. For the District administration, the PRIs are very much in their posts; the PRIs, on the other hand, claim they have obeyed the Maoist diktat and refuse to function. The Maoists have also been threatening members of various Self Help Groups (SHGs), village committees and forest management committees in Gadchiroli District, directing them to step down as well. Indeed, they have come out heavily even against Mohan Hirabai Hiralal, a Gandhian, who pioneered the Community Forest Right (CFR) model in Mendha-Lekha village, accusing him of "waylaying the tribals from the path of conflict (sic)." A press note released by CPI-Maoist ‘Gadchiroli divisional committee’ declared, "Hiralal is a follower of Vinoba Bhave, who had sought land from the rich. He is trying to cover up the violence by capitalists against the poor by professing non-violence.”

Despite significant Police successes, the Maoists continue to struggle to consolidate their movement in the State. They have reportedly carved out a new zone for operations, comprising the northern Gadchiroli and Gondia areas of Maharashtra, and the Balaghat area of Madhya Pradesh. The area has been brought under the direction of the newly appointed North Gadchiroli-Gondia-Balaghat Divisional Committee, which is now actively recruiting. The Committee is currently headed by Pahad Singh.

The incoherence of State policy was reflected when the State Home Minister R.R. Patil ‘admitted’ in the Legislative Assembly, on July 13, 2012, that Maoist violence in the State had not witnessed a drop, despite ‘heavy presence’ of Security Forces. The CRPF has deployed six battalions in the State, including a battalion of the CoBRA (Commando Battalion for Resolute Action) Force. Patil has, as usual, blamed the Maoists for sabotaging the developmental process in the Gadchiroli District. However, Government apathy, with persistent vacancies in key administrative posts, has emerged as a strong factor hindering development in the District and, indeed, in the wider and backward Vidharba region. Meanwhile, according to a December 14, 2012, report, following a severe reprimand by the Bombay High Court, the Chief Secretary of Maharashtra, J.S. Banthia, issued a circular to fill up vacant posts in the Maoist-affected areas of the neglected Vidarbha region by December 31, 2012. The deadline has likely been missed, but no follow up details are available.

Maharashtra has a Police Population-ratio (number of Policemen per population of 100, 000) of 163 against an all-India average of 137, as on December 31, 2011 (National Crime Records Bureau data). While this ratio is better than most other Maoist-afflicted States, it is still considered well below the levels required. The Mumbai city Police has constituted a Special Intelligence unit specifically to tackle the Maoist threat in the city.

The decrease in Maoist violence level in Maharashtra in 2012, in terms of fatalities as well as spatial extension, provides little room for complacency. Indeed, evidence of Maoist intimidation – dramatically visible in the way the Maoists have brow-beaten the elected representatives of PRIs in Gadchiroli – and of continuing political mobilization and consolidation, remains strong, suggesting that the dip in violence, as in the past, is a tactical choice the Maoists have made, rather than a necessity that has been imposed on them.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

Jammu and Kashmir

Manipur

Meghalaya

Left-wing Extremism

Andhra Pradesh

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

KP

Punjab

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)