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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 12, No. 15, October 14 , 2013

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

INDIA
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J&K: Incoherence and Volatility
Anurag Tripathi
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

In its continuing attempt to reverse the trend of deepening peace in the Indian State of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), Islamabad has, since the beginning of 2013,  intensified its onslaught on the border, repeatedly violating the Cease Fire Agreement (CFA) signed in November 2003. The ‘intrusion’ into Shala Bhata village along the Line of Control (LoC) in the Keran Sector of Kupwara District in September 2013, was a glaring recent example of such violations.

Reports suggest that a group of an estimated 30 to 40 infiltrators, comprising Pakistan Army’s Border Action Team (BAT) troops and Inter Services Intelligence (ISI)-backed terrorists, had ‘captured’ Shala Bhata village at some time in September 2013. The Army, however, denies such reports, asserting, “The enemy was not occupying higher ground but sitting in a nallah (rivulet)… If this was intrusion, the adversary would go and occupy dominating ground which is defensible.” Nevertheless, the Army was forced to launch Operation Shala Bhata on September 24, 2013. According to reports, at least 19 terrorists were killed during the operation. Five troopers also sustained injuries during the operation. The operation was called off on October 8, 2013, with Army declaring, “our counter-insurgency deployment is being strengthened. We are now going to launch operations which are intelligence based, which are surveillance based, so that we can eliminate and meet the challenges.”

In the meantime, an Army soldier was killed at Kachal along the LoC in the Keran Sector as the Army foiled an infiltration bid by terrorists in the night of October 10, 2013.

The sheer duration of the Operation Shala Bhata clearly demonstrated the enormous challenge that the SFs faced during the course of 15-days over which the engagement was extended. Indeed, the last protracted counter insurgency (CI) operation, Operation Khoj, had been launched in the J&K between March 27 and April 2, 2010, following information that a large group of Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) terrorists, all equipped with maps, weapons and ammunition, had infiltrated along the Pallanwalla sector in Jammu (Jammu District) in the night of March 22, 2010. 16 LeT terrorists and six soldiers were killed, as almost 1,000 troops spread out across an area of just over 50 square kilometers.  Speaking about the scale of the Operation Khoj, then General Officer Commanding (GOC) of the CI Uniform Force, Major General M.M.S. Rai stated, "No doubt it was the biggest by the sheer size of it, and the number of people involved on ground. We wanted to quickly eliminate, search and destroy and that is why we lost our own men too." SFs later claimed that Operation Khoj was, in fact, the second largest CI operation in the State after Operation Sarpa Vinash (Snake Destroyer) that was executed in the State in 2003 in the remote Hill Kaka region near Surankote town in Poonch District. "Operation Sarp Vinash, which was conducted in an area of approximately 150 square kilometres between April and June [2003] after comprehensive planning, led to the elimination of 65 terrorists and smashing of 119 hideouts," an unnamed senior Army officer had then told the Media.

Meanwhile, talking about the direct role of the Pakistan Army in the latest offensive from across the Border, General Officer Commanding (GOC) Northern Army command, Lieutenant General Sanjiv Chachra asserted,

The infiltrating terrorists have always received the tacit support of the Pakistan Army establishment. We are almost on eyeball-to-eyeball and we can see each other. At such a point of time, a large group of terrorists infiltrating… you mean to say that this is happening without the complicity of Pakistan Army? This is ridiculous. 59 major weapons, including 18 AK Rifles, and war like stores were recovered. Most of the arms recovered from the scene of operation have Pakistan marking.

Earlier in the year, the Pakistan Army’s direct involvement had been established in two gruesome attacks on Indian troopers. Indeed, on January 8, 2013, Pakistani troopers and ISI-backed terrorists breached the LoC in the Mankot Sector of Mendhar Tehsil (revenue unit) in Poonch District, ambushed an Indian Army patrol, and killed and mutilated two Indian troopers, identified as Lance Naik Hem Raj and Lance Naik Sudhakar Singh. Lance Naik Hem Raj was decapitated and his head was carried away by the attackers, while fleeing back into Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) territory. Again, in the early hours of August 6, 2013, personnel of Pakistan Army’s BAT, along with a group of 20 heavily armed terrorists, entered 450 metres deep into Indian Territory along the LoC in the Poonch sector. The intruders ambushed an Indian Army patrol consisting of six soldiers, killing five of them and injuring the sixth.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), a total of 117 CFA violations have taken place in the State since January 1, 2013 (data till October 13, 2013), resulting in the death of nine Indian soldiers. In comparison, 92 CFA violations had taken place through year 2012, in which three Indian soldiers had been killed. Similarly, as against 34 attempts at infiltration through 2012, the current year has already witnessed 39 such attempts (till October 13, 2013).

Unsurprisingly, in a significant reversal of the declining trend of terrorist violence in the State since 2001, a steep hike has been recorded this year in terrorism-related fatalities. SATP has recorded at least 164 fatalities, including 91 terrorists, 54 SF personnel and 19 civilians, in 2013; as compared to 80 such fatalities, including of 58 terrorists, 11 civilians and 11 SFs in the corresponding period of the preceding year, and a total of 117 fatalities (16 civilians, 17 SF personnel and 84 terrorists) through 2012. On all other parameters, moreover, violence in the State has escalated in the current year, more so since Nawaz Sharif assumed power in Pakistan.

Significantly, the latest act of Pakistani malfeasance, the ‘intrusion’ at Shala Bhata, occurred precisely when the Prime Ministers of both countries – Manmohan Singh (India) and Nawaz Sharif (Pakistan) – were holding talks in the US at the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting. This was a grim reminder of the infamous Kargil intrusion which was going on when then Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee was on a historic goodwill visit to Pakistan.

Fortunately, though, the Shala Bhata ‘intrusion’ failed to challenge the Indian troops the way Kargil did, though the mere intention of engineering such offensives exposes the true colour of Islamabad’s intentions. Despite this, the current regime in New Delhi appears to have completely lost the plot, and continues with its desperate efforts to ‘buy peace’. Such evidence of policy incoherence and weakness will only encourage Pakistan even further in its continuing mischief, creating increasing volatility along the border. With the likelihood of an escalating crisis in the wake of the Afghanistan drawdown, it is high time for New Delhi to take corrective measures if it is not to allow J&K to plunge into a renewed phase of chaos reminiscent of, if not exceeding, disaster of the pre-9/11 situation in the State.   

INDIA
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Meghalaya: Renewed Terror
Veronica Khangchian
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On September 26, 2013, a villager, identified as Nirmal Sangma, was shot dead by Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) cadres at his residence at Awek Village near Shallang in the West Khasi Hills District. The villager was executed by the GNLA on the allegation that he was a Police informer. The GNLA cadres fled the scene after the killing.

GNLA also carried out  a major attack (resulting in three or more fatalities), on September 16, 2013, when it attacked a village in Garobadha region, 32 kilometres from Tura in the West Garo Hills District, shooting dead three persons, including a youth and two women, in the night. Police allege that the GNLA had demanded INR 500,000 each from the families of the two victims (the third person killed was a woman trying to fight off the attackers) some time ago. The victims had reportedly made a partial payment to the armed group, but that failed to deter the killers.

According to South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the GNLA has killed 11 civilians, out of the total of 19 civilians killed in the State in 2013 [data till October 13, 2013].

Recent incidents of civilians killed, often after branding them as Police informers or collaborators, by GNLA, include:

September 3, 2013: A 10 member GNLA 'execution squad' killed a GNLA 'deserter' at an unspecified location.

August 20, 2013: Suspected GNLA militants killed a villager, Jenifar N. Sangma (47), in front of his family in the Rangmai village of Ruga region in South Garo Hills District. 13 heavily armed GNLA militants under the command of Kongsil, came to the village and targeted Sangma's family on suspicion that they were Police collaborators. While the militants dragged out and shot Sangma dead, they severely assaulted his teenage son.

August 12, 2013: Suspected GNLA militants shot dead Hawart G. Momin at Rongcheck Akong in East Garo Hills District, accusing him of being a Police informer. Police recovered five empty cases of INSAS and 7.65 pistol shots from the spot.

August 10, 2013: Suspected GNLA militants killed a village elder identified as Simon Ch Marak in East Garo Hills after accusing him of being a Police collaborator.

The Security Forces (SFs) have been on an Operation against the outfit since its formation in 2009, and have secured some successes against the group this year. According to SATP data, of the total 18 militants killed thus far, nine were connected with GNLA. No SF personnel have been killed by the outfit, despite several reported encounters.

In an incident which greatly angered GNLA, the 'second in command' of the outfit’s 'central command', Pilon M. Sangma alias Markus, was shot dead in a three-hour-long encounter with the East Garo Hills Police at Bansamgre village in East Garo Hills District in the morning of July 19, 2013. Another GNLA cadre, who reportedly sustained injuries, succumbed later.

On August 7, 2013, reportedly to avenge the death of its leader, GNLA militants triggered an improvised explosive device (IED) blast targeting six Police personnel travelling in a bullet proof truck at Nengkhra in the East Garo Hills District. Though there were no casualties, the vehicle was damaged. The IED blast was reportedly executed by a special team of the GNLA under direct operational command of its ‘chief’ Sohan D. Shira .The Assam-based Independent faction of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-I), is suspected to have supplied the IED to the GNLA.

In another significant operation on August 23, 2013, the ‘general headquarters’ of the GNLA inside the jungles of Durama Hills in East Garo Hills District, was neutralized by SFs and one militant was reportedly shot dead. Police sources disclosed that, when the attack was launched on the camp, the militants returned fire and the gun battle lasted over an hour. The destruction of the camp is said to be a major blow for GNLA 'chief' Shira, since it housed the outfit's cadres and was also used to provide training to new recruits.

On June 29, 2013, GNLA had threatened to launch a ‘street war’ against SFs if the Government continued its anti-insurgency operations and brought more forces into the Garo Hills.

GNLA’s links with ULFA-I are also a matter of serious concern. An August 24, 2013, report noted that GNLA had planned to train a new batch of over 150 cadres in their new general headquarters camp located deep inside the Durama hills of East Garo Hills bordering the southern District, with support from ULFA-I, when SFs attacked the site on August 23, 2013.

Further, on July 30, 2013, an ULFA-I explosive expert, identified as Sanjit Rabha, who was deputed by the ULFA-I to train GNLA militants in bomb making, was shot dead in an encounter with the Police near Tura in the West Garo Hills District. Rabha was with a group of GNLA cadres at Rongkugre, which falls under Dobasipara Police outpost, when SWAT commandos raided the area.

In 2012, GNLA had announced its willingness to end its armed struggle if the Central Government was ready to accept its demand for creation of a separate State for the Garos, carved out of the present State of Meghalaya. More recently, on July 21, 2013, Chief Minister Mukul Sangma hinted that the State Government was willing to hold talks with GNLA, observing, "We have to continue necessary measures to neutralise militant outfits but at the same time, doors for achieving sustained peace cannot be closed." The Chief Minister noted that the Government would be receptive to any proposal from any outfit to take part in the peace process. However, in 2012, Mukul Sangma had declared that there was ‘no question’ of holding dialogue with the GNLA.

Further, an August 8, 2013, report suggested that, with no end to militancy-related violence in the Garo Hills, former Chief Minister S.C. Marak felt that the GNLA should be included in the peace process with the Government. According to Marak, when the Achik National Volunteer Council (ANVC) was created, there was chaos and havoc in the Garo Hills; but after peace talks with ANVC, there was relative peace. This, however, has been shattered by the emergence of GNLA.

Besides Breakaway faction of ANVC (ANVC-B) and United A’chik Liberation Army (UALA), the GNLA remains a major threat to peace in the state. The three outfits were once part and parcel of the mother organization ANVC.

Despite its offer of talks, on August 18, 2013, GNLA rejected a proposal by the ANVC-B to the Government to have a 'Territorial Council', with strengthening of the Garo Hills Autonomous District Council (GHADC). GNLA insists that it would continue to pursue its goal for a Garoland State. The outfit's 'publicity secretary' Pantera Singgasik declared, "ANVC-B has mooted for a Territorial Council. We wish them the best. As far as GNLA is concerned we will seek nothing short of a separate State for the Garos." On August 1, 2013, the Centre had reached an agreement with the ANVC and ANVC-B under which the autonomy of the GHADC would be enhanced. Disclosing this during a press conference, Union Home Minister, SushilKumar Shinde announced that the agreement would be placed before the Cabinet for approval and that, "We expect that the signing of the agreement with the ANVC will improve the situation in the area (Garo Hills)."

On July 15, 2013, ANVC-B leader Doang D. Shira issued a statement asserting that making Sohan D. Shira a part of a peace pact between the ANVC and the Government could change the situation in the Garo Hills and, "We are open and ready to include Sohan in the signing of the peace pact."  The ANVC-B was part of the tripartite dialogue held on January 5, 2013, between the ANVC, the Centre and the Meghalaya Government. Following the dialogue, a draft text for settlement of the ANVC issue through the enhancement of powers of the existing GHADC was signed.

On July 17, 2013, however, GNLA categorically rejected the ANVC-B offer of joining the peace talks, and accused the latter formation of collaborating with the Meghalaya Government in “eliminating” GNLA cadres. In response to Doang D. Shira’s statement inviting GNLA to join the ongoing peace process, Sohan D. Shira reiterated that such a proposal from the rival outfit could not be entertained, since there was an ongoing move by the State Government in collaboration with the ANVC-B to try and bring GNLA to its knees. However, Sohan Shira has expressed willingness to engage with the Delhi, declaring, "We will talk to the Centre, not with the ANVC."

On June 5, 2013, while addressing the Conference of Chief Ministers on internal security, Meghalaya Chief Minister Mukul Sangma expressed concern over the rise in GNLA’s unlawful activities. Sangma noted, "Even though internal security situation in Meghalaya continues to be stable and under control, the GNLA remains a matter of concern." He also cautioned that insurgents from neighbouring states used the long and porous Bangladesh border along Meghalaya to their advantage and raised concerns over rising militancy in the Hill State due to the lack of development and thin Police presence. Chief Minister Sangma noted that the remote and inaccessible Garo Hills area had a low Police-population ratio and the five districts in the region had just 16 Police Stations, leaving vast tracts of land practically outside the Police network. During the course of counter-insurgency operations, he observed, SFs often trekked three to four days to reach certain remote locations. In sum, he noted, "Due to the porous border with Bangladesh, various militant groups active in the neighbouring states have been using the Garo Hills as a corridor for sneaking in and out of Bangladesh with relative ease. These militant outfits have, over the years, trained and nurtured various Garo militant groups. There is, therefore, a need for increasing the Police presence in the interior areas of the Garo Hills region to improve the response time of Police."

It is, however, not quite clear what the Chief Minister is complaining about. According to the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) data for end 2012, Meghalaya has a rather healthy Police-population ratio of 426 per 100,000, as against India’s anemic average of 138. If there is a deficit in deployment and establishment of Police Stations in some parts of the State, this is squarely the failure of the State Government and the State Police administration.

Meghalaya's new Director General of Police (DGP), Peter James Pyngrope Haneman has expressed the view that strong political will was required to tackle the problem of militancy: "It is important that the strategy adopted by the Police to tackle the problem of militancy should have a political back up. The basic objective in dealing with the problem of militancy is to bring back the misguided youth into the mainstream."

The ‘lack of political will’ has long been shorthand for a wide range of ailments in administration and governance, and it is clear that these continue to create spaces for the cyclical resurrection of insurgent violence in Meghalaya. Meghalaya’s insurgencies are now deeply degraded, and have limited capacities. It is nothing but the failure of the political and police leadership of the State that they have not yet been entirely neutralized.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
October 7-13, 2013

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Islamist Terrorism

0
0
4
4

INDIA

 

Assam

0
0
2
2

Jammu and Kashmir

0
1
0
1

Meghalaya

1
0
0
1

Left-wing Extremism

 

Chhattisgarh

0
1
1
2

Jharkhand

2
0
0
2

Total (INDIA)

3
2
3
8

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

10
0
0
10

FATA

0
2
0
2

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

9
6
0
15

Punjab

1
0
0
1

Sindh

18
2
5
25

Total (PAKISTAN)

38
10
5
53
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH

ICT-2 awards former BNP minister Abdul Alim 'imprisonment until death' for War Crimes: International Crimes Tribunal-2 (ICT-2) on October 9 sentenced former Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) minister Abdul Alim (83) to 'imprisonment until death'. The prosecution was able to prove nine of the 17 charges brought against Alim, who was a member of BNP founder Ziaur Rahman's cabinet.

Meanwhile, ICT-1 on October 9 indicted vice-president of Nagarkanda unit in Faridpur District of BNP M.A. Zahid Hossain Khokon (70) alias Khokon Razakar on 11 charges, including genocide, torture, abduction and confinement during the Liberation War. Daily Star, October 9-10, 2013.

BNP will stop war crimes trial if voted to power, warns Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on October 10 seeking vote for the Awami League in the next election said that Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) will stop war crimes trial if voted to power. "I seek vote for the Awami League….we've initiated the trial of the war criminals and the trial will continue and Insha-Allah, we'll complete the trial. If the BNP-Jamaat [JeI] returns to power they will stop the trial of the war criminals," she said. Daily Star, October 11, 2013.


INDIA

Terrorists planning another Samba-style attack in Jammu and Kashmir, warn Intelligence Agencies: Two suicide squads responding to wireless call sign "88" and "Hotel 4" are learnt to have sneaked into the State to carry out another Samba-style terror attack, warned Intelligence Agencies. Intelligence Agencies have cautioned the State Police and also issued an alert to military installations in Srinagar, Udhampur, Jammu, Samba and Pathankot. India Today, October 1-7, 2013.

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi prime target of top 10 terror organisations, reveals Yasin Bhatkal: Gujarat Chief Minister and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is the prime target of top 10 terror organization, arrested Indian Mujahideen (IM) 'India operation chief' Yasin Bhatkal has revealed in the interrogation. Bhatkal was arrested on August 28, 2013. Daily Bhaskar, October 9, 2013.

Naxal violence declining since 2010, says UMHA Sushilkumar Shinde: The Union Minister for Home Affairs (UMHA) Sushilkumar Shinde on October 10 said that the Naxal [Left-Wing Extremism (LWE)] perpetrated violence has gone down since 2010. "The Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-violence has been declining since 2010. The number of incidents of violence declined from 2,213 (with 1,005 resultant deaths) in 2010 to 1,415 incidents (with 415 resultant deaths) in 2012. In the current year (up to August), there has been a 27.48 per cent reduction in such incidents (with 14.10 per cent reduction in resultant deaths) in comparison to the corresponding period in 2012," he added. The Hindu, October 11, 2013.

India and US to jointly target financial networks of Pakistan-based terror outfits: India and the US on October 13 agreed to work together to target the financial network and fund raising activities of Pakistan-based terror outfits like Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT)/,Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD), the Haqqani network and individual terrorists associated with these organisations. The decision by the two countries, in this regard, was taken during a meeting between finance minister P. Chidambaram and US treasury secretary Jack Lew. Times of India, October 14, 2013.


PAKISTAN

TTP vows to attack Malala Yousafzai again: The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on October 7 said schoolgirl campaigner Malala Yousafzai had "no courage" and vowed to attack her again if they got the chance. Shahidullah Shahid, 'spokesman' of TTP, said, "She is not a brave girl and has no courage. We will target her again and attack whenever we have a chance." TTP had tried to kill Malala on October 9, 2012, but she survived after being shot in the head. Dawn, October 8, 2013.

US troops capture senior TTP leader Latif Mehsud, says US official: US troops captured a senior leader of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in a military operation, US State Department deputy spokesperson Marie Harf said on October 11. "I can confirm that US forces did capture… terrorist leader Latif Mehsud in a military operation," Marie Harf said, describing the captive as a senior commander in the TTP. Harf gave no further details of the operation nor did she say where and when it took place, keeping a shroud on whether the operation was in Afghanistan or Pakistani territory. Tribune, October 12, 2013.

Government 'sincere' on talks with TTP, says PM Nawaz Sharif: Prime Minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif on October 10 said his Government was 'sincere' about holding peace talks with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), after TTP 'chief' Hakimullah Mehsud complained no serious steps had been taken to open a dialogue. Sharif said progress was being made on the issue of opening negotiations. Dawn, October 11, 2013.


SRI LANKA

Parliament is the best forum to address the issue of implementation of the 13th Amendment, says President Mahinda Rajapaksa: President Mahinda Rajapaksa expressing his view to Indian External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid when the latter called on him at President's House in Colombo on October 8 said Parliament is the best forum to address the issue of implementation of the 13th Amendment. He added that Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC) members should engage in dialogue and come up with a solution that is in line with 'what the people want'.

Meanwhile, Salman Khurshid during his visit to Jaffna District on October 8 said, "India remains committed to uplifting the lives of the people of the Northern Province through its efforts to restore the social, educational, economic and cultural infrastructure, which were devastated by the armed conflict." Daily News; Colombo Page, October 9, 2013.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

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K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


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Institute For Conflict Management



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