INDIA
PAKISTAN
NEPAL
BHUTAN
BANGLADESH
SRI LANKA
Terrorism Update
Latest
S.A.Overview
Publication
Show/Hide Search
HomePrint
 
  Click to Enlarge
   

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 12, No. 17, October 28 , 2013

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

INDIA
Click for PrintPrint

Indian Mujahideen: Evolving Challenge
Sanchita Bhattacharya
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Revelations made by Indian Mujahideen (IM) ‘India operations chief’ Yasin Bhatkal aka Mohammad Ahmed Siddibappa Zarrar aka Imran aka Asif aka Shahrukh, and his associate Asadullah Akhtar alias Haddi, during their ongoing interrogations by several agencies have brought to the fore some new facts. The duo also reconfirmed much that was already known about IM. The revelations in their totality outline the emerging challenges that Indian security agencies are going to face in the foreseeable future. Bhatkal and Haddi were arrested from Indo-Nepal border on August 28, 2013.

In the most startling of revelations so far, Yasin Bhatkal is reported to have told security agencies that the "IM is trying to turn into an al Qaeda-like terror network". An unnamed official noted, further, "Two options were on the table - either the IM would turn an assisting outfit of Qaeda in India or merge with it to work directly under the command of Zawahiri [al Qaeda ‘chief’ Ayman al-Zawahiri]."

Yasin Bhatkal has also claimed that there has been a split within IM ranks. According to interrogation reports, the IM structure changed after the Batla House (New Delhi) encounter of September 19, 2008. The entire organization split into two factions — Azamgarh and Bhatkal. While the Azamgarh Unit was led by Amir Reza Khan, with Shahnawaz Alam as his lieutenant, Riyaz Bhatkal headed the Bhatkal Unit. Some reports, however, suggest that Yasin Bhatkal has also spoken about another unit led by Mohammad Sajid alias Bada Sajid and Mirza Shadab Beg. Significantly, these names also appeared in the National Investigation Agency’s (NIA) First Information Report (FIR) on allegations related to terrorist activities of members of IM and conspiracy for waging war against the Government of India, dated September 10, 2012, along with seven other IM cadres.

Indeed, an unnamed security official observed, "Our initial assessment was that the group has weakened with (the) arrest of so many cadres and there is division. But the IM… has grown many folds. Each group has its men and logistics in India.”

These two developments, if found to be correct, are ominous.

The growing links with al Qaeda are a very real threat, suggesting that the global jihad has started focusing increasingly on India, bringing new and more dangerous strategies, tactics and resources to this theatre. Indeed, current al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in his first specific jihad guidelines, endorsed the right of Islamist militants to fight "Indians in Kashmir", as reported on September 17, 2013. Further, an al Qaeda statement released on September 30, 2012, indicates that the terror group is evolving its strategy on the Myanmar-Assam region. In the statement, Ustad Ahmad Farooq, who was appointed as al Qaeda's head of the 'preaching and media department' for Pakistan in 2009, warned that the recent killings of Muslims in Myanmar and Assam "provide impetus for us to hasten our advance towards Delhi." June 2013 reports indicated that Maulana Asim Umar, a senior al Qaeda ideologue, released a video titled “Why There Is No Storm in Your Ocean?”, exhorting Indian Muslims to join the global jihad. IM and al Qaeda are believed to have discussed attacks on foreign nationals based in India, most notably Jews. Significantly, in September this year, New Delhi asked all Mumbai-based Jewish establishments to step up security measures in the face of an impending terrorist threat. India's Union Home Ministry has also briefed Israel about a possible IM attack on Israeli nationals visiting Rajasthan, especially in the tourist centre of Pushkar, Jaisalmer and Jodhpur.

In this context, the four individuals of Indian origin, who have participated in global terror activities, offer a vital pre-text. They are Dhiren Barot (aka Abu Musa al-Hindi), a British citizen of Indian origin who plotted bomb attacks against the New York Stock Exchange, International Monetary Fund and World Bank; Haroon Rashid Aswat, another Indian with a British passport, was a self-proclaimed hitman for Osama bin Laden and allegedly a key figure in the July 2005 attacks in London; Bangalore-born Kafeel Ahmed, who was involved in the June 2007 attack on Glasgow International Airport, and a known follower of al Qaeda; and finally, Mohammad Niaz Raseed, a cadre of the Students' Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), the parent organization of the IM, who was recently sentenced to eight years in prison by the Paris Criminal Court for plotting a series of terrorist attacks. These important examples demonstrate an escalating threat potential not only in India, but of a terrorist mobilisation within this country that could have international ramifications.

On the home front, IM’s link or efforts to establish linkages with other groups have also been reconfirmed. Disclosures during interrogations of Yasin Bhatkal and Asadullah Akhtar indicate that IM was in touch with the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), discussing a possible tie-up with the outfit to procure explosives and ammunition for use in terror attacks in India. Sources claim IM offered 'handsome payments' to the Maoists for supply of weapons and explosives. Yasin Bhatkal also revealed that he had met CPI-Maoist leaders in Nepal before the serial blasts that rocked Bodh Gaya in Gaya District of Bihar on July 7, 2013. Bhatkal had reportedly surveyed the area around the Mahabodhi temple a year before the blasts took place. The explosive devices used in the blasts resemble the bombs used by Maoists. Similarly, close connections with the National Development Front (NDF) in Kerala and the Karnataka Forum for Dignity (KFD) also came to the fore.

Counter-intuitively, the alleged splits within IM may actually result in a deeper percolation of terrorist networks and activities in India, with multiple and overlapping structures of operation, and increasing specialization. Indeed, Beg’s Unit, which is reported to have the backing of al Qaeda and Taliban, is believed to be focusing only on fidayeen (suicide squad) attacks on prominent people in India. Akhtar revealed that, during an online chat in July 2013, Beg told him that 15 people from five Indian States had been called to Pakistan earlier in the year, to discuss IM’s future operations in India. Sources indicate that these persons underwent intensive training in Afghanistan to carry out fidayeen attacks.

Disclosures during interrogations also indicate that IM is planning to target political leaders. Yasin Bhatkal admitted, "The funds flow from our international sympathisers will increase many times if we manage to reach Narendra Modi. Modi is one to 10 in the list of targets. The rest of the targets figure much below him."

IM is also planning a series of bomb blasts across the country. Significantly, agencies have recovered a whopping 90 Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) from Zephyr Heights in Mangalore and Abdullapur in Hyderabad, among other IM hideouts. In what can be considered further evidence of the plan, all these devices were almost ready for use, and had been developed at the instance of Yasin Bhatkal and his aide, Akhtar. A top intelligence officer disclosed to the media, "Only the circuitry was not connected to the IEDs, otherwise these bombs were ready to use." Several unattached timers, batteries, detonators and shrapnel were also recovered from various hideouts. Yasin Bhatkal is learnt to have told interrogators that IM was experimenting with the manufacture of hydrogen peroxide-based IEDs. On the ‘ideological’ front, Yasin Bhatkal is reported to have reconfirmed that IM's main objective was to establish Shariah in India, as in Afghanistan and Somalia.

IM is clearly undergoing dynamic transformations under the direction and guidance of the Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) which has provided the top leaders of the group safe haven and resources in Pakistan, and facilitated deepening linkages with regional and global jihadi groups. With a progressive international outreach, vertical splits and increasingly specialization, the group and its successors are likely to evolve more lethal capabilities that would certainly be manifested in India, but are likely to have reverberations across the world as well.

PAKISTAN
Click for PrintPrint

Peril on the Tracks
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

At least seven persons, including two women - one civilian and one Police constable - were killed and another 16 were injured when militants triggered an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) explosion targeting the Jaffar Express train in the Notal area of Naseerabad District in Balochistan Province on October 21, 2013. Reports indicated that the train, which runs between Rawalpindi in Punjab Province and Quetta in Balochistan, was carrying hundreds of passengers. The passengers were returning from Punjab to Balochistan after Eid al-Adha (festival of sacrifice) holidays. Meanwhile, claiming responsibility for the attack, the Baloch Republican Army (BRA) claimed that the train was carrying Security Force (SF) personnel who were returning to Balochistan after celebrating Eid in Punjab.

Earlier, on August 16, 2013, the same Jaffar Express had come under rocket attack by militants in the Dozan area of Mach in Bolan District (Balochistan). At least three civilians had been killed and another 32 persons had sustained injuries. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) had claimed responsibility for that attack. On this occasion, the train was going to Rawalpindi. Later that day, SFs killed at least eight BLA militants during a search operation in the mountains of Mach and Kolpur.

On January 5, 2013, five passengers had been killed and another 10 had sustained injuries when militants had opened fire on passengers travelling in the Jaffar Express near the Kohsar area of Kachhi in Bolan District, while it was travelling to Quetta from Rawalpindi.

While the Jaffar Express has been targeted repeatedly, the wider Rail network across Pakistan has also come under recurring attack. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the Railways in Pakistan have been attacked on at least 109 occasions since March 2000 (data till October 27, 2013). Of these, 105 attacks have been recorded in just two Provinces: Sindh (56) and Balochistan (49). 56 fatalities have been recorded in the total of 109 attacks, with 30 killed in Balochistan and 20 in Sindh. 

SATP data indicates an escalation in such incidents and fatalities since 2011, with a succession of major attacks (each involving three or more fatalities) targeting the Railways. Of these, in addition to the incidents mentioned above, the most significant included:

June 27, 2012: At least seven persons were killed and another 30 were injured when a remote-controlled bomb went off at the Sibi Railway Station in Sibi District, Balochistan.

April 24, 2012: At least three people, including a Railway Police official, died and around 45 received injuries, when a bomb exploded at the Lahore Railway Station, Lahore District, Punjab.

August 28, 2011: Three persons were killed and 19 were injured in firing and rocket attacks on the Peshawar-bound Quetta Express in the Mach area of Bolan District, Balochistan. 

However, in terms of fatalities in such attacks, the year 2000 remains the deadliest, with 18 killed in two incidents in that year. On July 17, 2000, ten persons were killed in a train blast in Hyderabad city, Sindh. Earlier, on February 5, 2000, a bomb exploded in a train in Hyderabad, killing eight persons and injuring more than 40.

The concentration of attacks on the Railways in two provinces – Balochistan and Sindh – is the result of separatists operating there, and engaging in different patterns of economic subversions. Attacking the Railways is one of several such tactics. Significantly, most of the attacks on Railways - as is also the case with attacks on gas pipelines - are non-lethal. Reports indicate that Pakistan Railway has suffered a loss of PKR 132 billion over just the last four years. Though the reasons for this have not been specified, it is certain that the series of attacks on the Rail infrastructure will aggravate the financial crisis of the Railways, which constitute the backbone of an already depleted Pakistan economy.

While Baloch nationalist groupings like BLA and BRA have been engaged in attacks on Railways inside Balochistan, it is the relatively little known Sindhi groups like the Sindhu Desh Liberation Army (SDLA), a banned separatist formation, which is fighting for the establishment of an independent Sindhu Desh, that have led the attacks inside Sindh.

Despite the evident hike in the frequency of such attacks, security agencies have failed to meet the challenge because of enveloping shortcomings. Crucially, Pakistan Railways has a network of 11,755 kilometers of track with 558 stations. During the year 2011-2012, the Pakistan Railways carried 41,097,192 passengers, covering a total of 16,093,350,581 passenger-kilometers. Just about 20,000 ill equipped and ill trained personnel are there to provide safety to this vast complex. The Pakistan Railways Police (PRP), like other wings of the Police in Pakistan, has been facing acute shortages of arms and communication system for decades. Available data indicates, for instance, that PRP has just 1,625 walkie-talkie systems, 102 VHF mobile stations, 86 VHF base sets, 30 HF base sets and 300 head phones. Document available with the media in April 2012 indicated that the Railways had just 40 G-3A3 rifles for its eight Divisions; no such rifles were available at Lahore and Multan. Similarly, against the total of 10 Light Machine Guns (LMGs) in the PRP armoury, there were no LMGs at the Lahore, Peshawar, Rawalpindi, Multan, Sukkur and Quetta Divisions. The Railways Police also have small numbers of few revolvers, pistols, shot guns and Henry Martin rifles. There is also a severe and persistent shortage of anti-riot equipment, from helmet to walkthrough gates. The entire availability is just 1,721 helmets, 2,727 polo sticks (canes), 103 tear gas guns, 350 tear gas masks, 746 anti-riot jackets, 10 statures, 10 mega phones, 530 material detectors and three explosive detectors (with just one available at Lahore). Police also have 22 walkthrough gates and eight mine detecting sets.

The Department is, moreover, facing an acute shortage of funds for purchasing security equipment. Even the meager allocation of PKR 20 million in 2012, though approved by then Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, has not been released by the Finance Division under the grounds of monetary constraints. 

Much of the Railways security infrastructure, moreover, is dysfunctional. Investigations after the April 24, 2012, attack at Lahore Railway Station, for instance, revealed that the CCTV cameras at the station were not working. Furthermore, the CCTV cameras installed at the Railway Stations across the country lack the feature of night-vision recording, and are of little use after dark, though activity on the Rail network continues round the clock.

Some ineffectual measures have, of course, been initiated to 'counter' attacks on the rail system. On May 15, 2012, the Federal Ministry of Interior cancelled licenses and No Objection Certificates (NOCs) for transportation of arms and ammunition aboard trains. “All the NOCs and permissions issued for allowing carriage of arms, weapons and ammunition through railway carriers stand cancelled until further orders, and those found violating this order will be dealt with according to the law,” then Federal Minister of Interior Rehman Malik wrote in a letter to Provincial Home Departments, the Railways Inspector General and Pakistan Railways Divisional Superintendents. Recently, PRP Inspector General (IG) Ibne Hussain on October 13, 2013, disclosed that the 'latest communication and tracking system' was being installed to monitor Railway tracks and trains across the country. He added that PRP had been assigned the responsibility of operating the new tracking system, while it was the IT department that had previously monitored it. He added, further, that the latest weapons, including sniper guns, G-3 7.62 mm rifles, telescopic-sighted rifles, night vision telescopes and other weapons of various calibre, were being purchased from the Pakistan Ordinance Factory, and that PKR 21 million had already been approved for the plan - though it is not clear whether the funds have been, or will be, released. IG Hussain, however, insisted that, “The weapons will be received within two to three months.” He also stated that 13 railway stations – including Lahore, Peshawar, Rawalpindi, Quetta, Karachi, Multan, Sukkur and Gujranwala – had been declared 'high security zones'.

Other measures have also been promised. The Minister for Railways, Khawaja Saad Rafique, on August 29, 2013, pointed out that no anti-terrorist training had been provided to PRP personnel, despite the increased security threats prevailing across the country, and claimed that Pakistan Railways was planning an anti-terrorist training programme for PRP. In its first phase, he added, Pakistan Railways would nominate 100 Police personnel for the training. He also disclosed that satellite devices would also be acquired with the help of the Ministry of Information Technology, along with CCTV cameras and multiple scanning machines. The Minister also stated that an additional 600 constables would be recruited to PRP, for which special permission would be sought from the Federal Government. Even on the face of it, however, these proposals appear far too modest to impact significantly on the prevailing situation.

Worse, given the track record of the security establishment as well as that of the leadership at the helm in Pakistan's political spectrum, it remains highly unlikely that even these limited proposals are going to be implemented in full. On the other hand, discontent among the separatists can only grow, given Islamabad's flawed approach to the Provinces. Under the circumstances, attacks on soft targets like the Railways with widely dispersed and vulnerable infrastructure can only be expected to increase.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
October 21-27, 2013

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Islamist Terrorism

5
0
4
9

INDIA

 

Assam

1
0
1
2

Bihar

6
0
1
7

Jammu and Kashmir

0
1
1
2

Left-wing Extremism

 

Andhra Pradesh

1
0
0
1

Odisha

1
0
0
1

Total (INDIA)

9
1
3
13

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

11
4
0
15

FATA

0
1
0
1

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

2
0
0
2

Sindh

8
2
23
33

Total (PAKISTAN)

21
7
23
51
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH

Nine persons killed in street violence across the country during the week: At least seven people were killed in street violence across the country on October 25. Several hundred people were also injured in violence as the opposition and the ruling alliance tried to hold rallies at same places or tried to violate bans on gathering that had been ordered by way of Section 144 of the Code of Criminal Procedure.

One person was killed and 116 others injured when scores of crude bombs exploded in at least 50 places including the houses of a Supreme Court judge, law minister, environment minister and chief election commissioner, and the offices of a Police high-up, a Police station, and Ekattor TV in Dhaka city on October 26. 71 people were arrested from different areas of the city.

In Rajshahi District, Rashedul Islam (30), treasurer of Motihar unit of Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS), the student wing of Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), was killed, and over 30 people including seven Policemen and a ward councillor were injured as Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), JeI and ICS cadres clashed with Police and hurled around 15 homemade bombs in Rajshahi city on October 26. Daily Star; New Age, October 21-28, 2013.


INDIA

Sevnen persons including one militant killed in serial explosions in Bihar : At least seven persons, including one militant were killed, and 100 others were injured in eight serial bomb blasts near Gandhi Maidan, the venue of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi's rally in Patna on October 27 minutes before he reached there to address a huge gathering,. Eight explosive devices with timers went off between 9.30am and 12.25pm as part of a serial bomb attacks suspected to be the handiwork of Indian Mujahideen (IM). Times of India, October 27-28, 2013.

Meanwhile, four alleged operatives of the IM have been arrested, one of whom is in critical condition after being caught in a blast. "A suspected accused (who was) seriously injured in bomb explosion while fitting a timer at Patna railway junction died on late Sunday night," Patna Senior Superintendent of Police (SSP) Manu Maharaj said. During interrogation, they reportedly told the Police that they had staged the attack in retaliation for the Muzaffarnagar riots. They are also said to have named the IM module involved in the Bodh Gaya blasts. The names of the four detained are Imtiaz Ansari, Ainul, Akhtar and Kaleem. Ansari, a resident of Ranchi, was apprehended at the railway station just after the first two bombs went off. He was apparently planning to plant some more bombs but panicked when he saw the Police and bomb disposal squad. On being challenged, he tried to flee but was arrested. .

254 infiltration bids in first nine months of 2013 in Jammu and Kashmir, says report: Infiltration attempts in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) in 2013 have breached the levels witnessed during the last couple of years, with 254 instances being recorded until September 30 as against 233 during the corresponding period of last year and 247 during 2011. The Security Forces (SFs), however, have managed to contain the number of cases where the terrorists could successfully sneak into Indian Territory. Times of India, October 22, 2013.

IM might attack Israeli nationals visiting Rajasthan, says report: Israel was briefed in September about a possible Indian Mujahideen (IM) attack against the country's nationals visiting Rajasthan, said Union Ministry of Home Affairs and Israeli sources. The Israeli Embassy was briefed by Indian counterterrorism officials, but did not issue a warning to tourists "beyond the normal." Hindustan Times October 25, 2013.

LeT 'chief' Hafiz Muhammad Saeed training terrorists along borders, says Union Minister of Home Affairs, Sushilkumar Shinde: Union Minister of Home Affairs Sushilkumar Shinde on October 22 said that Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) 'chief' Hafiz Muhammad Saeed is training terrorists along borders. "As per our information, it is possible that he (Hafiz) must be giving training to terrorists on the other side of the border at various launchings pad and unless Pakistan hands him to us, there would be a problem…Infiltration attempts from across the border have increased this year and it is a matter of concern". Times of India, October 25, 2013.

Over 15 IM modules have taken shelter in Pakistan, reveals Yasin Bhatkal: Arrested Indian Mujahideen (IM) 'India operation chief' Yasin Bhatkal's interrogation has revealed that more than 15 active IM modules have taken shelter in Pakistan. The interrogation has also given conclusive evidence to the security agencies in India on pro-active involvement of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in formation and operations of the IM. Asian Age, October 21, 2013.

Terror emanating from 'our neighbourhood' affects India and China, says Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on October 24 warned that terrorism and radicalism emanating from "our neighbourhood" had directly affected both India and China and could lead to instability across Asia. He said, "If we look carefully, many of our challenges are common. Terrorism, extremism and radicalism emanating from our neighbourhood affect both of us directly and can create instability across Asia". Times of India, October 25, 2013.


PAKISTAN

Seven persons killed in IED explosion on train in Balochistan: At least seven persons, including two women - one civilian and one Police constable - were killed and another 16 were injured when militants triggered an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) explosion targeting the Jaffar Express train in the Notal area of Naseerabad District in Balochistan Province on October 21, 2013. Reports indicated that the train, which runs between Rawalpindi in Punjab Province and Quetta in Balochistan, was carrying hundreds of passengers. Dawn, October 22, 2013.

27 polio workers killed since 2012, reveals Prime Minister's Special Cell on polio report: According to an October 24 report by the Prime Minister's Special Cell on polio, militant attacks on Pakistan's polio workers have killed 27 vaccinators and Police guards during the past year and a half. The report, released in connection with World Polio Day (October 24, 2013), said 16 of those killed were from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Central Asia Online, October 25, 2013.

Fatwa threatening media freedom re-issued: Fatwa (religious edict) naming certain Pakistani media and journalists as "enemies of the Mujahideen" was re-issued on October 19 in the form of a post on social networking site Twitter. "We condemn this explicit and targeted threat to journalists, which greatly increases the dangers to which they are already exposed," said Reporters without Borders on October 25. Dawn, October 26, 2013.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

Publisher
K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


A Project of the
Institute For Conflict Management



To receive FREE advance copies of SAIR by email Subscribe.

Recommend South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) to a friend.

 

 

 

 

 
Copyright © 2001 SATP. All rights reserved.