SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 13, No. 11, September 15, 2014

PAKISTAN

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TTP: Hardening Lines
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On August 26, 2014, a group of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) ‘commanders’ broke away from the parent organization led by Maulana Fazlullah and formed a new outfit called Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA, Assembly of Freedom). The announcement was made through a video release. JuA includes TTP factions from the tribal areas – Bajaur, Khyber, Mohmand, and Orakzai Agencies in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA); and Charsadda, Peshawar, and Swat Districts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).

The new group is led by Maulana Qasim Omar Khorasani, while Ehsanullah Ehsan has been appointed as its ‘spokesman’. Ehsanullah Ehsan was spokesperson for TTP, but was suspended from the outfit on July 9, 2013, for ‘divisive acts’. A pamphlet distributed by militants in North Waziristan Agency (NWA) of FATA claimed that "he [Ehsanullah Ehsan] has made comments that have raised the danger of divisions between the Pakistani Taliban and the Afghan Taliban".

The new outfit’s shura (executive council) includes ‘commanders’ Maulana Abdullah (Bajaur Agency), Qari Ismail (Khyber Agency), Abdul Wali alias Omar Khalid al Khorasani (Mohmand Agency), Mansoor Nazim Shura and Maulana Haider (Orakzai Agency), Qari Shakil Haqqani (Charsadda District), Mufti Misbah (Peshawar District), and Maulana Yasin (Swat District). 

While announcing the split, Maulana Qasim Omar Khorasani claimed, "The leadership of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan [TTP] is a victim of narrow, personal objectives. A separate group was announced after the efforts to keep TTP united ended in failure.” The man mainly responsible for the split was Abdul Wali, the chief of the Mohmand Agency unit of the TTP, who had vehemently opposed Fazlullah’s growing closeness with the Nawaz Sharif Government and the process for peace-talks with the Government, which eventually collapsed. 

Earlier, on February 9, 2014, in reaction to Maulana Fazlullah’s decision to initiate talks with the Pakistan Government, Maulana Qasim Omar Khorasani had formed a new outfit called Ahrar-ul-Hind (AuH, Freedom of India). The talks between the Government and the TTP which began on January 29, 2014, proved inconclusive and collapsed on February 17, 2014. The AuH ‘spokesperson’, Asad Mansour, had claimed, on February 11, 2014,

Some of our leaders have become prey to compromises and have agreed to conduct dialogue only to get the tribal areas liberated. It is very clear that Shariah can never be attained through talks. Even if the Government makes a concession, it will only be limited to the tribal areas. In the past, we used to participate in jihad [Holy war] from the platform of Tehrik-e-Taliban. But from now onwards, we will carry out attacks independently. The Mujahideen associated with the TTP are our brothers, but if they opt for a ceasefire with the Government, we shall not be bound by their agreement, nor are we willing to accept such a ceasefire.

Indeed, AuH took responsibility for the suicide attack at the Islamabad Court on March 3, 2014, that killed 11 persons, including a Judge Rafaqat Awan.

Meanwhile, realizing its weakening position in the aftermath of the formation of the JuA,   the TTP on expelled the ‘chief’ of its Mohmand Agency chapter, Abdul Wali, September 4, 2014. Wali had joined JuA’s shura (executive council). TTP ‘spokesperson’ Shahidullah Shahid declared, “The TTP leadership, after approval by the honourable ameer [Maulana Fazlullah], has removed ‘commander’ Abdul Wali, alias Omar Khalid Khorasani, as the chief of Mohmand Agency unit and also cancelled his basic membership... Khorasani has been removed because of his interference in affairs of the Afghan Taliban and his contacts with the mysterious groups – AuH and Junud-e-Khorasan." Shahid further claimed that the news of Khorasani and Ehsan joining these two groups was an attempt to create a rift between the ranks of the Taliban. No information is available about the activities of Junud-e-Khorasan (Soldiers of Khorasan).

Refuting TTP’s allegation, Ehsanullah Ehsan claimed that Omar Khalid Khurasani travelled to Darra Adamkhel and South Waziristan to resolve disputes between TTP factions and ‘commanders’. He denied his organization’s links with Junud-e-Khorasan. He, however, admitted that AuH had merged with the JuA.

Moreover, in a long charge-sheet against the TTP leadership, Ehsan claimed, “It was lack of leadership quality that TTP had been involved in bloody clashes that have taken lives of known Mujahideen. The leadership had no policy to deal with this situation.” He disclosed that nearly 200 Taliban from the Mehsud tribe had lost their lives as a result of internal fighting. Talking about a specific case, he claimed that the Taliban had killed the TTP Rawalpindi ‘chief commander’ Nadeem Abbas alias Enteqami, but his killers had not yet been tried in their ‘Islamic court’. This is the first time that a TTP-linked group has acknowledged the death of Nadeem Abbas, who escaped from police custody in Peshawar on August 12, 2011, and was reportedly involved in several acts of terrorism. Ehsan added, further, “It is still a mystery as to who has killed the members of central council Asmatullah Shaheen Bittani and Tariq Afridi.”

Significantly, TTP’s decision to initiate peace talks had divided the group, and TTP factions had already started fighting each other. Between April 6 and May 8, 2014, at least 80 terrorists were killed and an unspecified number were injured (the actual figures are likely to be higher, as reportage from the areas of conflict is severely restricted) as two TTP factions, one led by Shehryar Mehsud, the TTP ‘chief’ in South Waziristan Agency (SWA), and another led by Khan Saeed alias Sajna, clashed in the Shawal area of NWA. The rival factions had accused each other of grabbing power in order to control South Waziristan’s Mehsud tribal area. While infighting within TTP in Waziristan Agency had considerably affected its organisational strength, the activities of the Mohmand Agency chapter ‘chief’, Omar Khalid al Khorasani, were further weakening the leadership.

While TTP was engaged in peace-talks, the Omar Khalid al Khorasani group executed 23 Frontier Corps (FC) personnel on February 16, 2014. The FC personnel had been abducted on June 14, 2010, from the Shoonkri Post of Mohmand Agency. Omar Khorasani declared that the kidnapped FC personnel were killed as 'revenge', because the Government was continuously killing TTP cadres in different parts of the country, including Karachi (the provincial capital of Sindh), Peshawar (the provincial capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, KP) and the Swabi District in KP. He declared that, if the Government did not stop killing the TTP supporters, TTP would also continue to kill SF personnel.  

Fissures in TTP have been developing for a long time. Formed in 2007 with the objective of uniting small terrorist factions against North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Forces in Afghanistan, and to wage a defensive jihad against Pakistani Forces in the wake of the Lal Masjid Operation by the Army, TTP had been facing an organizational crisis since the killing of its founding 'supreme leader', Baitullah Meshud, in a US drone attack in SWA on August 5, 2009. Baitullah Mehsud’s clansman and deputy, Hakimullah Mehsud (killed in a US drone attack in Dandy Darpa Khel area of NWA on November 1, 2013), was appointed unanimously as the successor, but his authority was challenged by Baitullah Mehsud’s ‘spokesman’, Waliur Rehman Mehsud (killed in a US drone attack in Chashma area of Miranshah in NWA on May 29, 2013), who was made TTP’s ‘deputy chief’ after a brief power struggle. Khan Saeed alias Sajna now heads the Waliur Rehman group.

The rift deepened further when the TTP shura appointed Maulana Fazlullah as the ‘chief’ of the outfit  after Baitullah Mehsud. Significantly, Fazlullah belongs to the Babukarkhel clan of the Yusufzai tribe from Swat District, while most of the TTP cadres are drawn from the Mehsud tribe, and are opposed to him. Moreover, Fazlullah operates out of Afghanistan and the TTP local ‘commanders’ in Pakistan have been angered by this, arguing that they do not want to operate under people from across the border. Pakistani Analyst Zia-ur-Rehman, quoting an unnamed official working in the SWA political administration, wrote on June 6, 2014, “Mehsud militants were not ready to accept a non-Mehsud Fazlullah as their new leader since day one”. Interestingly, however, all these groups reiterate their allegiance to Afghan Taliban ‘chief’ Mullah Mohammad Omar. They consider the defunct 'Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan' as their headquarters and Omar as the Ameer ul Momineen (Commander of the Faithful).

TTP has currently split into three groups – the Fazlullah faction, the Said Khan Sajna faction and the Maulana Khurasani faction. More or less, all the erstwhile TTP allies have joined or pledged allegiance to one or other of these three groups. According to reports, over 50 per cent of senior ‘commanders’ of the Fazlullah-led TTP from the Mohmand, Bajaur, Orakzai, Khyber and Kurram Agencies of FATA, and from Swat and Charsadda District of KP, have already joined the JuA.

Amidst the ongoing and orchestrated political drama in Islambad, the strengthening of the ‘anti-establishment faction’ of the TTP is an ominous sign for Pakistan. The country has recorded 47,534 fatalities, including 26,266 terrorists, 16,525 civilians and 4,743 SF personnel since the TTP's formation. The current year alone has seen 3,349 fatalities, including 1,730 terrorists, 1,211 civilians and 408 SF personnel. Indeed, Omar Khalid al Khorasani had asserted, on March 20, 2012, “The Taliban seek to topple the Pakistan Government, impose Shariah, seize Pakistani nuclear weapons and wage jihad until the Caliphate is established across the world.” The progressive destabilization of Pakistani state institutions and the consolidation of increasingly radicalized forces in the country can only be bad news for the region at large.

INDIA

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Maoists: Cash Crunch
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

In a written reply to a question the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) on July 22, 2014, stated, “The Left Wing Extremists groups, particularly the CPI (Maoist) [Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist)], are reported to extort ‘levy’ from industrialists, businessmen, contractors particularly Tendu patta (Diospyros melanoxylon leaf) contractors, transporters, Government servants and various illegal mining mafia groups in the LWE affected states. Though an exact quantification is not possible, a study conducted by the Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA), Delhi has assessed that the CPI(Maoist) party has been collecting not less than Rs. 140 crores [INR 1.4 billion] annually from a variety of sources”. Earlier, on February 12, 2014, the UMHA had also given a similarly worded reply. However, no further details about the various 'levies' imposed by the Maoists were available.

Meanwhile, media reports quoting Chhattisgarh Police suggest that Chhattisgarh was the centre of Maoist extortion, with the rebels collecting nearly INR 1 billion from the State. The June 22, 2014, report quoted an unnamed senior Police officer saying, "Numerous intelligence inputs suggested that Maoist have extorted money to the tune of Rs 80 – 100 crore [INR 800 million to INR 1 billion] from various sources, like contractors, businessmen, transporters and tendu patta contractors, every year in the state." Senior Maoist leaders were primarily focusing on mineral-rich Chhattisgarh to extort money to run the CPI-Maoist organisation across the country.

Details of accounts of money extorted by Maoists have been recovered by the State Intelligence Bureau (SIB) in Chhattisgarh. Giving details, an officer disclosed that the Maoists had been extorting money to the tune of INR 30 million annually from locals, INR 100 million from businessmen, INR 200 million from contractors, INR 100 million from transporters, about INR 200 million from tendu patta contractors, INR 150 million from timber contractors, INR 200 million from industrialists based in Naxal-hit areas and INR 200 million from employees and officers. About 20 per cent of total cost of any projects or development work undertaken in the Maoist-affected zones is extorted as "protection money", to ensure the safety of the works and the people involved, a SIB document claimed. Moreover, mobile operators also pay protection money of INR 20,000 to the Maoists to ensure the safety of each mobile tower. From the locals, money is raised in the name of "revolutionary tax", which ranges from INR 10 to INR 2,000. Of course, these figures can, at best, be taken as 'guesstimates' given the significant variation in the totals and breakup given by various agencies. Thus, while the total is given as INR 800 million – 1000 million, the breakup exceeds the upper band of INR 1000 million by INR 180 million.

The SIB document also revealed that the Central Committee of CPI-Maoist takes the final call on the amount to be extorted from different sources. The task of recovery is divided among the organisation's segments, such as the zonal committee, area committee and local cadres. The spokesperson of the Dandakaranya Special Zonal Committee (DKSZC) Gudsa Usendi alias G.V.K. Prasad, who surrendered on January 8, 2014, in Andhra Pradesh, had revealed that the Maoists were involved in extorting large amounts of money from the Bastar (South Chhattisgarh) region.

Earlier, the interrogation report (IR) of top Maoist Chandu alias Tella Anil Kumar, member of the Andhra Odisha Border Special Zonal Committee (AOBSZC) and intelligence-in-charge for the 'Malkangiri Division', 'Koraput-Srikakulam Division' and 'East-Visakha Division', arrested on February 1, 2014, had revealed that the Maoists demand at least five per cent of the total cost of road contracts from contractors. While five per cent is the initial demand the Maoists are at times flexible, but do not accept anything less than three per cent. Significantly, in lieu of the ‘levy’, the Maoists demand walkie-talkie sets and tablet computers from the contractors involved in civil work in the areas. If the demand of communication equipment is not fulfilled, the Maoists ask for explosives. Lastly, money is accepted, if no other option is accepted. Kumar further disclosed that one per cent of the cost of total agricultural produce, such as tamarind, on the Andhra-Odisha border, is demanded by the Maoists. Chandu also revealed that the ‘One Rupee a kilogram rice’ scheme of the Odisha Government was being siphoned off by the Maoists, as gram panchayats (village level local self Government institutions) were required to withhold a proportion of this rice for the Maoists.

Significantly, Chandu also revealed that the CPI-Maoist has been facing a cash crunch in recent times. His interrogation report stated that, to cut expenditure, CPI-Maoist had decided to provide tea to the cadres only once a day, because prices of milk powder and tea had gone up. “If any cadre does not like tea, he is not encouraged to develop this habit. Also cadres are encouraged to give up the habit of ‘khaini’,” the IR said. Other austerity measures include provision of meat only once a month. However, women and sick cadres are given one kilogram of almonds per month for quick recuperation.

Interestingly, an earlier estimate of financial strength of the Maoists in late 2009 suggested the ‘levy’ collected by the Maoists was up to INR 20 billion. Of course, Maoist violence peaked in 2010, and has, since, been in decline. The CPI-Maoist Central Committee (CC), at its 4th Meet, sometime in April-May 2013, conceded, “the condition of our countrywide movement is critical". However, if the earlier estimates, based on official sources, and the new estimates acknowledged by the UMHA, are accepted, the decline in ‘levy’ collection would be by far larger than the overall decline in the strength of the Maoists.

This is difficult to explain. It is to be noted that in 2010, a total of 196 districts were under Maoist influence of which 96 districts witnessed violence, while in 2013, 182 districts were under Maoist influence of which 76 districts were violence-affected. Moreover, the estimated armed cadre strength of the CPI-Maoist in 2006 was around 7,200; by 2012, this had actually risen to 8,600. Further, if the INR 1.4 billion figure is accepted for the whole of the Maoist-affected areas, it is difficult to accept that the Bastar region of Chhattisgarh alone would contribute around or over INR 1 billion, while the combined total for all the remaining areas across the 'Red Corridor' would be barely INR 400 million. Unless further details of these assessments are publicly available, it is impossible to confirm which of these figures is closer to reality.

Aware that Maoists were extorting substantial sums, the Centre has expressed the opinion that the State Governments concerned should initiate legal action whenever such instances of extortion come to notice. Significantly, the Seventh Report of the Second Administrative Reforms Commission had recommended the setting up of special anti-extortion and anti-money laundering cells by the State Police/ State Governments. The Union Ministry of Mines has disclosed that the State Governments have been advised to establish such cells to prevent the nexus between illegal mining/ forest contractors/ transporters and the extremists. Besides, LWE affected States have been advised to effect certain changes in policy with a view to curb the flow of funds to the Naxalites from tendu patta collection.

Given the vast avenues of ‘levy’ collection available, it is a herculean task for state agencies to hurt the CPI-Maoist financially, as long as its armed strength survives. Nevertheless, any success in this regard would go a long way to damage Maoist military capabilities.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

Assam

Jammu and Kashmir

Manipur

Meghalaya

Left-wing Extremism

Andhra Pradesh

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

KP

Punjab

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)