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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 13, No. 45, May 11, 2015

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

INDIA
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Maoists: False Starts, Critical Losses
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a public gathering in Dantewada in the heart of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) insurgency-affected Bastar Division in Chhattisgarh on May 9, 2015, the Maoists registered their symbolic opposition. A call for a Bastar bandh (general shutdown strike) was issued and, in the Munga Forest of Sukma District (earlier a part of Dantewada), just 80 kilometres from the Prime Minister’s meet, the Maoists ‘abducted’ over 200 villagers to hold a praja court (‘people’s court’, an euphemism for Kangaroo court) at Gaadem and killed a villager, identified as Sadaram Nag of Marenga village.

Early in the morning of May 9, a few hours before the Prime Minister’s visit, a large number of armed Maoists descended on Marenga,Tikanpal, Tahakwada and Junapan villages (under Tongpal Police Station) and herded more than 200 people into the praja court. The villagers were supporting the construction of a bridge on Baru river near Marenga and some of them were working there as construction workers. Sadaram, who was killed, was looking after the construction of the bridge. According to media reports, the villagers of Marenga wanted a bridge to be constructed near the village and decided to help the District administration in its construction, much to the displeasure of the Maoists. A day earlier, on May 8, the Maoists had threatened locals for their support to the construction and their failure to cooperate with the Maoists. Further, when villagers of surrounding areas launched a protest in the last week of February 2015 against the arrest of a suspected Maoist, identified as Hidma, villagers from these four villages had not taken part in the protest.

On May 3, 2015, the Maoists had killed two villagers from the east Godavari District in Andhra Pradesh, just across the State border, after another praja court in Sukma District, suspecting them to be Police informers.

As Bastar emerges as the nucleus of Maoist tactical counter offensive in the face of shrinking activities in other States, the Maoists had ambitiously announced their move in the South. In the recent issue of People’s March (Vol.13, No 3, Jan-March 2015), the Maoists claimed to have launched a ‘politico-military campaign’ in Kerala and announced the opening up of a ‘new war front’ in the Sahyadri Hills in the Kerala-Karnataka-Tamil Nadu tri-junction area.

However, that plan took a big hit with the arrest of five Maoists, including Roopesh and his wife Shyna, from a bakery in Karumathampatti in Coimbatore District, Tamil Nadu, in the evening of May 4, 2015. Roopesh was in charge of the CPI-Maoist’s Western Ghats Special Zonal Committee (WGSZC) and was believed to be leading the Maoist movement in Kerala. He has some 20 criminal cases against him registered in Kerala. The other Maoists arrested with him were identified as Anoop Mathew George, Kannan and Eswaran. 

Based on specific inputs from the Telangana and Andhra Pradesh Police, the arrests were made by the ‘Q’ Branch of Tamil Nadu Police. Addressing a Press Conference on May 7, 2015, Kerala Home Minister Ramesh Chennithala observed that he regarded the arrests as a “critical turning point” in the fight against Maoist infiltration, achieved through the concerted efforts of the Police forces of Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.

Preliminary enquiries revealed that the Maoist couple had lived in a house in Tirupur since August 2012. They posed as being involved in the Information Technology business and export of disposable cups, and seldom interacted with neighbours. Police searched the house on May 7 and seized hundreds of books, CDs and electronic gadgets. Given the number of books, electronic gadgets and mobile phones in the house, Police suspect the house was used as a hub for Maoist propaganda. Police also suspect that Roopesh had convened a meeting of the WGSZC in Karumanthampatti to plot an armed insurrection in Andhra Pradesh, in retaliation to the encounter killings of 20 persons at Seshachalam hill ranges near Chittoor. Twenty woodcutters from Tamil Nadu, found felling red sanders, were killed in an alleged encounter by Andhra Pradesh Police at Eethakunta in the Seshachalam hills in Chittoor District of Andhra Pradesh on April 5, 2015. There was a hue and cry against the encounter and, taking suo moto cognizance of the incident, the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) has issued notices to the Andhra Pradesh Chief Secretary and Director General of Police while the Chittoor administration has ordered a magisterial inquiry.

Roopesh, a law graduate from Thrissur (Kerala) with a diploma in Information Technology, has allegedly been involved in some 20 criminal cases in Kerala. Police claim he was among the most wanted Maoist leaders in the country, and one Police official stated, “It is a big catch. Roopesh was leading Maoist operations in the tri-junction and involved in the attacks on forest establishments in Kerala and also on some MNC retail outlets. His wife Shyna was working as clerk in the Kerala High Court and later joined the Maoists.”

Roopesh wrote a novel in 2013, which was published by two publishing houses in Kerala under two different titles — ‘Maoist’ and ‘Vasanthathile Poomarangal (Flowering trees of spring)’. Shyna was in the news in 2011 after she wrote a letter to Chief Minister Oommen Chandy seeking action against Police officials who allegedly harassed her 71-year old mother and her two children, who live in Thrissur District.

The couple came under the radar of intelligence agencies after they allegedly gave shelter to Malla Raji Reddy, a CPI-Maoist Politburo member arrested in 2007 from Angamali in Kerala. [Malla Raji Reddy has since jumped bail and joined the Maoist underground movement again] Although Shyna was also arrested in the case, she was released on bail in 2008 and then went underground.

The couple attracted further Police notice after the Kerala Police arrested five persons for holding a secret meeting of the Revolutionary Democratic Front (RDF), a front organisation of the CPI-Maoist, at a lodge in Mavelikkara, Alappuzha District, on December 29, 2012. While Police arrested the five persons, including Gopal, a former scientist at the Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam, they let off two minors in the incident. The Police had identified the two minors as daughters of the Maoist couple, Roopesh and Shyna. The case was later handed over to the National Investigation Agency (NIA) which, on April 22, 2015, filed a charge sheet against the five persons.

Not much is known about the other Maoists who were arrested along with Roopesh.  Kannan of Madurai has been an active member of the Maoist movement for over two decades and remained underground since 1990. Kannan, the son of a Police constable, escaped from the scene when Naveen, an alleged Maoist leader, was shot dead near Kodaikanal in 2008.

According to media reports, Anoop started as a Students Federation of India (SFI) leader, but severed links with SFI on ideological grounds after his polytechnic days. In 2011, he went to the Gulf, but returned to his native place Ranni in the Pathanamthitta District of Kerala after a few months. After his return, he expressed his desire to work for tribals and visited Thiruvananthapuram and Kozhikode many times. Since 2012, he stopped communicating with his family.

The Kerala Police disclosed that they had intensified their efforts to “deny any operational base” to the armed comrades of arrested Maoist leader Roopesh. An official identified the prominent members of the unit as Vikram Gowda, Mahesh aka Jayanna, A. Suresh, Latha, Kanya, aka Kanyakumari, and Sundari aka Geeta, all hailing from the Malnad region in Karnataka.

Perhaps more consequential is the arrest of K. Muralidharan aka Thomas Joseph aka Ajith (62) with his aide Ismail Hamaza Chiragpilli aka Pravin aka James Mathew (29) from the Talegaon Dabhade area, located about 30 kilometres from Pune city. Murali, the son of former diplomat Kannamballi Karunakara Menon, was the secretary of CPI-ML (Naxalbari) before the party merged with the CPI-Maoist on May 1, 2014. He is believed to have been inducted into the Maoist Central Committee after the merger. He wrote books and articles under the pen name Ajith and was probably tasked with countering the ideological attack on the party.

Ajith and Ismail were living in a plush apartment in the Lotus Villa building in Talegaon Dabhade, and Ajith was undergoing treatment for some ailments in Moraya Hospital. His aide Ismail is also a native of Kerala and hails from its Malappuram District. He was also a part of CPI-ML (Naxalbari) and later joined CPI-Maoist after the merger.

While the Maoists’ attempts to establish a stronghold in the South have again received a setback, the movement remains strong in the Bastar area of Chhattisgarh. Meanwhile, the NDA Government at the Centre, which came to power with a promise of a stronger response to the Maoist insurgency, is yet to give Cabinet approval to the draft policy prepared by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) even as it approaches the completion of one year in power. Moreover, the Prime Minister has signed MoUs worth INR 240 billion in Dantewada, a development that flies in the face of the draft UMHA policy, which states that developmental works in highly affected areas should follow after successful security interventions. As discussed earlier in SAIR, the policy decision to leave the Modernisation of the Police Force Scheme as well as all developmental works in the Maoist affected areas to the States is also likely to be counter-productive.

At a time when the Maoists themselves acknowledge dramatic reverses of fortune, inadequate policy support to anti-Maoist campaigns can provide the rebels with much needed breathing space. Incoherence of policy has been the bane of counter-insurgency efforts for decades, and the present dispensation, despite a range of successes that have little connection to policy decisions, demonstrates little evidence of any greater strategic vision. The Maoists have proven their resilience again and again, and if the State falters, they are sure to recover, inflicting the burden of response once again on the hapless SFs that have borne the consequence of political incompetence, mischief and failure for decades.

INDIA
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Meghalaya: Continuing Irritants
M. A. Athul
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On May 7, 2015, Security Forces (SFs) killed a suspected Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) militant, identified as ‘lieutenant’ Sanjay alias Gobat Gambat, in the Tapa Darengchi area of North Garo Hills District. One pistol was recovered from the incident site.

On May 6, 2015, SFs killed a GNLA militant at Jongchitpara village in South West Garo Hills District. 

On May 2, 2015, SFs killed the ‘commander in chief’ of Achik Matgrik Elite Force (AMEF), Jack Marak, at Mandadrop in North Garo Hills District. One AK-47 along with two magazines, 51 live rounds and one magazine of 7.62 bore, one 9mm pistol along with one magazine, four live rounds of 9mm bore, 14 electric detonators, four meters of fuse wire, and eight gelatine sticks were recovered from the incident site.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), five militants – three of GNLA and one each of AMEF and the Independent faction of United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-I) – have been killed by SFs since April 2, 2015, when Operation Hill Storm 2 was launched (data till May10, 2015). About seven militant camps, including six of GNLA, have been neutralized since then. There has been no casualty among the SFs.

Meghalaya Director General of Police (DGP) Rajiv Mehta stated that the objective of the ongoing operation was the same as that of Operation Hill Storm 1, that is, to flush out militants from the interior areas of the Garo Hills, which comprises of five Districts – West Garo Hills, East Garo Hills, South West Garo Hills, South Garo Hills and North Garo hills. The aim was to deny the militant outfits, mainly the GNLA and ULFA-I, any ‘comfort zones’ in the region.

Operation Hill Storm 1 was launched on July 11, 2014, and continued till December 2014. During the operation, according to the SATP database, a total of 10 militants were killed – GNLA, 7; A'chik Songna An'pachakgipa Kotok (ASAK), 2; ULFA-I, 1. The operation was conducted by the Meghalaya Police and Combat Battalion for Resolute Action (CoBRA), with occasional support from the Goalpara (Assam) District-based Dogra Regiment of the Indian Army. Although the operation was initially launched for three months, it was extended further till December 2014. The operation was considered a success, with some 10 or 11 militant camps neutralized and 47 militants – GNLA (28), ASAK (8), Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC, 4), AMEF (5) and United A'chik Liberation Army (UALA, 2) - surrendering in 18 incidents, in addition to the killing of 10 militants. In a significant incident, six GNLA militants, including an unnamed ‘area commander’, surrendered before the Police at Tura in West Garo Hills District, on October 6, 2014. SFs also arrested a total of 46 militants in the Garo Hills region during the Operation.

Moreover, the pressures exerted by the SFs during the Operation had forced the ‘commander-in chief’ of GNLA, Sohan D. Shira, to escape to Bangladesh and disrupted the command structure of GNLA as well as other militant organisations.

Regrettably, however, the SFs’ successes proved momentary as the troops relinquished the initiative soon after.  Taking advantage of the hiatus, the militants regrouped and resumed their activities. According to SATP database, since January 1, 2015, a total of six civilians and four SF personnel have lost their lives in violence across the State, in addition to the killing of 13 militants [data till May 10, 2015].

Out of the six civilians killed in six incidents, four were killed in four incidents in the Garo Hills region. All the four troopers were killed in a single incident in the Garo Hills. All 13 militants were also killed in the Garo Hills. Of the seven reported incidents of explosion in 2015, five incidents occurred in the Garo Hills. Further, six of the seven incidents of abduction reported in the State were from the Garo region.

In a major incident, on March 10, 2015, around 40 GNLA militants ambushed a Police team travelling from Rongara Police Station to Baghmara in the Panda Reserve Forest area in South Garo Hills District, and killed four Policemen and injured another two. Militants also decamped with one AK rifle, two INSAS rifles, a 9mm pistol and ammunition. Police stated that GNLA ‘chief’ Sohan D. Shira orchestrated the attack. Later, on March 13, an unnamed Police official stated that involvement of ULFA-I in physical and logistics support to GNLA for the ambush at Panda Reserve been virtually confirmed. This, Police claim, is an additional worry since GNLA and ULFA-I are the most violent groups, along with the IK Songbijit faction of National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-IKS), among more than 31 active insurgent groups across the Northeast.

In another show of strength, on March 9, 2015, GNLA imposed a shutdown across the Garo region, including Ampati in South West Garo Hills District, the Assembly Constituency of the State Chief Minister Mukul Sangma. The shutdown call was made against alleged “Police highhandedness" and "fake encounters". The Ampati shutdown effectively continued for more than a month.

Reports suggest that first batch of 40 AMEF militants, after having passed out from a jungle ‘training camp’ had recently joined operations. An unidentified senior Meghalaya Police officer stated, on May 2, 2015, “AMEF outfit was beginning to expand its militant operations in as many as four Districts of Garo Hills. When it came to the strength of its armoury and the number of cadres, it had already overtaken ASAK for the number two slot [in Meghalaya after GNLA]”. Indeed, on February 2, 2015, SFs killed an AMEF militant, Sengrak S. Sangma aka Andalao Matgrik, during a raid at an AMEF hideout in the Boldra Abri area of North Garo Hills District and subsequently recovered 23 plastic explosive devices and 65 detonators. When AMEF was formed in 2014, the only weapons they had were three AK rifles and eight pistols. 

Meanwhile, reports now suggest that Sohan D. Shira has returned to Meghalaya to guide militant operations and the command structure of GNLA as well as other militant organisations in the region has been re-established.

There has been a continuous process of splintering of militant groups in Meghalaya, even as the Garo Hills remain a critical ‘bridge’ for rebel formations in India’s Northeast to cross over into Bangladesh. The neglect of vast areas due to their perceived remoteness and the lack of infrastructure have created vast ‘ungoverned spaces’, where the fiat of the Government is more or less nonexistent. If ongoing Operations are to succeed against insurgency, gains by the SFs have to be consolidated through urgent administrative and developmental efforts. If such efforts continue to be absent or insufficient, as they have been in the past, operational successes will once again be lost in the black hole of mis-governance that afflicts the region.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
May 4-10, 2015

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Left-wing Extremism

0
0
1
1

INDIA

 

Assam

0
0
1
1

Jammu and Kashmir

1
0
1
2

Manipur

4
0
2
6

Meghalaya

0
0
2
2

Nagaland

0
0
1
1

Left-wing Extremism

 

Chhattisgarh

3
0
0
3

Jharkhand

1
0
2
3

Total (INDIA)

9
0
9
18

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

0
0
1
1

FATA

2
0
2
4

Sindh

6
1
3
10

PAKISTAN (Total)

8
1
6
15
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


INDIA

10 PFI activists sentenced to eight years imprisonment in Kerala professor palm chopping case: A Special National Investigation Agency (NIA) court at Ernakulam in Kerala on May 8 sentenced 10 convicts, in a case of palm chopping of a Professor, to eight years of rigorous imprisonment. Three others were sentenced to two years of rigorous imprisonment. Earlier, on April 30, the Court had found 13 persons guilty of various charges, including terrorism and criminal conspiracy, in the cases related to the chopping of the palm of T J Joseph, a professor with the Newman College in Thodupuzha in Idukki District, by the activists of radical outfit Popular Front of India (PFI) on July 4, 2010. New Indian Express, May 9, 2015.

Dawood Ibrahim in Pakistan, asserts Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Kiren Rijiju: Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Kiren Rijiju said Dawood Ibrahim lives in Pakistan and the Centre would continue to pursue the case very seriously. "Government's consistent stand is that he (Dawood) is in Pakistan and government of India has been providing information to Pakistan about his whereabouts and Pakistani agencies are not cooperating with Indian government. That is well known to everyone," Rijiju stated. Financial Express, May 6, 2015.

LeT's 'operational commander' and mastermind of 26/11 attacks Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi's release from jail was mistake by Pakistan, says US: US ambassador to India Richard Verma on May 8 said release LeT's 'operational commander' and mastermind of 26/11 attacks Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi's from jail, was "a mistake" and his country has already shared its concern on issue with Pakistan. "We have shared our concern about this issue. We have raised it with the Pakistani government and we have been very clear that the perpetrators of those in the attacks of Mumbai have to be brought to justice," he stated. Times of India, May 9, 2015.

'Not all Arunachal Pradesh Districts are under AFSPA', asserts Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Kiren Rijiu: Kiren Rijiu, Union Minister of State for Home Affairs stated that that not all Arunachal Pradesh Districts are under Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA). "Now, only the areas falling under the jurisdiction of 16 Police stations in various Districts of Arunachal Pradesh bordering Assam have been declared as disturbed areas along with the whole of Tirap, Changlang and Longding Districts, for a period of six months," he stated. He also added that in order to control the anti-national and criminal activities of various militant groups including IK Songbijit faction of National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-IKS), Independent faction of United National Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-I), Khaplang faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K), various Districts of Arunachal Pradesh bordering Assam were declared as disturbed areas under the AFSPA for a brief period. Assam Tribune, May 6, 2015.

ULFA-I reiterates that it is not interested in 'so-called' dialogue with the Government: The United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I) on May 7 in a statement e-mailed to the media reiterated that it was not at all interested in 'so-called' peace-talks with the Government and vowed to continue with its 'revolution' till it achieved its avowed goal of restoration of 'sovereignty' of Assam. The ULFA-I statement came in reaction to a comment made by the Director General of Police (DGP), Khagen Sarma on May 6. The DGP had stated that doors had been closed for ULFA-I and its leader Paresh Barua for holding any dialogue. The Shillong Times, May 8, 2015.

NSCN-K asserts it would never be cowed down by the threat of 'collaborators and traitors': Khaplang faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K) on May 4 stated that t would fight to the last remaining man and would never be cowed down by the threat of 'collaborators and traitors'. In its statement, it affirmed its 'determination' to uphold and carry on the struggle regardless of persistent 'anti-Naga' and anti-NSCN campaign launched by 'Naga collaborators' and 'Indian agencies'. The Shillong Times, May 5, 2015.


NEPAL

Government hopeful of having a new constitution soon, says Deputy Prime Minister Prakash Man Singh: Deputy Prime Minister Prakash Man Singh on May 4 said the process of drafting the new constitution has been affected due to the devastating earthquake. "We will start deliberations on various issues of constitution drafting after a couple of weeks," he said, adding that the contentious issues will be dealt in by framing questionnaire and the disputed matter will be decided by majority votes. The Hindu, May 7, 2015.


PAKISTAN

All TTP centres in Darra Adamkhel and Orakzai Agency destroyed, claims unnamed senior Army Officer: An unnamed senior Army Officer on May 10 said that the military has destroyed all the command and control centres of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Darra Adamkhel in Kohat District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining Orakzai Agency of Federally Administered Tribal Areas. He said that the law and order situation had gradually improved during the last few years and it was much better these days. He said that there was negligible threat to the public and military now. Dawn, May 11, 2015.

Punjabi Taliban leader joins TTP 'chief' Mullah Fazlullah: A Punjabi Taliban leader, Qari Matiur Rehman, closely linked to al Qaeda, held a meeting with the 'chief' of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Mullah Fazlullah and announced allegiance to him, an unnamed source revealed this on May 5. The sources claim that Rehman remained a close aide and a logistics provider of Ayman al-Zawahiri, the current 'chief' of al Qaeda, whenever he travels. The News, May 6, 2015.

Weapons supplied to Pakistan were used by American forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, says CRS: The United States (US) has handed over 14 combat aircraft, 59 military trainer jets and 374 armoured personnel carriers to Pakistan from the weapons it is leaving behind in the region, the Congressional Research Service (CRS) report said. The Agency, which prepares internal reports for the US Congress, reported that the weapons supplied to Pakistan were earlier used by American forces in Afghanistan and Iraq. Dawn, May 7, 2015.

LeT's 'operational commander' and mastermind of 26/11 attacks Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi seeks exemption from appearing in court: Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) 'commander' and mastermind of Mumbai 2008 terror (also known as 26/11) attacks, Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, on May 4 requested the Anti-Terrorism Court (ATC) to exempt him from appearing in the court citing security reasons. The ATC is scheduled to resume trial in the case on May 6, 2015. ATC Judge Sohail Ikram issued notices to the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) seeking reply on Lakhvi's application by May 6, 2015. Dawn, May 5, 2015.

Federal Minister of Interior Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan decides to ban import of prohibited weapons in the country: The Federal Minister of Interior Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan on May 4 decided to put a complete ban on the import of prohibited weapons in the country. "It was proposed that a complete ban on import of prohibited weapons should be put in place," an official statement read. According to the decision, only the Ministry of Defence Production and security Agencies should be allowed to import such weapons. The Interior Minister also proposed that individuals and entities, who are qualified for such weapons, can procure them only through Pakistan Ordnance Factory in Wah. Tribune, May 5, 2015.


SRI LANKA

Sri Lanka will have a domestic mechanism to address accountability in place before UNHRC session in September, says Foreign Affairs Minister Mangala Samaraweera: The Government on May 7 said that a domestic mechanism will be in place by September to probe into the alleged human rights violations during the final stages of decades-long war with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Foreign Affairs Minister Mangala Samaraweera said that the domestic mechanism with foreign technical expertise to probe into the allegations of war crimes will be in place when next United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) session will meet in Geneva in September. PTI, May 8, 2015.

Four teams will be appointed to the PCICMP to conduct investigations into future deliberations, says Chairman of PCICMP Maxwell Paranagama: Chairman of the Presidential Commission Investigating Cases of Missing Persons (PCICMP) retired High Court Judge Maxwell Paranagama said that four teams will be appointed to the PCICMP to conduct investigations into future deliberations. He said the appointments were in accordance with the recommendations made in the interim report that was submitted to the President Maithripala Sirisena. These four teams will investigate about 16,000 complaints, according to the Chairman. Colombo Page, May 5, 2015.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

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Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


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