| |
SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 17, October 26, 2015
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
|
Redrawing
Battle Lines in the Northeast
Fakir
Mohan Pradhan
Research
Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
The Myanmar
Government signed a Nationwide Ceasefire Accord (NCA)
with eight ethnic armed groups on October 15, 2015, enhancing
prospects of ending a majority of the country’s long-running
internal conflicts. President U Thein Sein hailed the
signing of the Accord as a “historic” event. The signing
ceremony was witnessed by international observers including
representatives from India, Thailand, Japan, China, the
United Nations and the European Union. Fifteen armed groups
were invited to take part in negotiations that lasted
almost two years, with eight groups finally agreeing to
sign the NCA, while seven groups chose to stay away. Acknowledging
that the ethnic Kachin and Wa – with tens of thousands
of soldiers – are still determined to fight, President
Thein Sein pledged to “try harder to gain agreement with
other groups”.
According
to the President, the signing will be followed by the
formation of a Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee to
prevent armed clashes and a Union Peace Dialogue Joint
Committee to facilitate political dialogue. A political
framework is to be drawn up within 60 days after the formal
NCA signing and the political dialogue is to start within
90 days.
India hailed
the signing of NCA, which was witnessed by National Security
Advisor Ajit Doval, Chairman of Joint Intelligence Committee
(JIC) and interlocutor for Naga peace talks R.N. Ravi
and former Chief Minister of Mizoram Zoramthanga. Zoramthanga
had been involved in the peace deal and had travelled
earlier to Myanmar and Thailand where he held talks with
both Myanmarese rebel groups and the Government as a mediator.
At least
three groups active along the Indo-Myanmar border – the
Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), Chin National
Front (CNF) and Khaplang faction of the National Socialist
Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K)
– were part of the peace negotiations ahead of signing
of NCA. While CNF signed up, KIO and NSCN-K walked out.
NSCN-K had taken the decision not be part of the NCA in
a party conference held on September 21 at its headquarters,
where NSCN-K 'chairman' S.S Khaplang and other central
committee members were present. Later, in an interview
with Independent Mon News Agency (report published
on September 24) U Kyaw Sein, an NSCN-K central committee
member said, “We already discussed the topic with our
chairman. The chairman said we aren’t ready to sign the
NCA yet. And, there are some political issues in our group.
We cannot find a solution for this by just signing the
NCA. The government side also cannot solve this problem.
So, we decided not to participate in the NCA inking.”
He did not reveal what these political problems were,
though he added, “It is not that we will revolt against
the Burmese Government because we do not sign the NCA”.
Though NSCN-K is not a signatory to the Agreement, from
India’s internal security perspective the NCA can be very
significant as Myanmar still remains a safe haven for
a host of militant outfits active in India’s north-east.
Erstwhile safe havens in Bhutan and Bangladesh have now
become extremely difficult.
NSCN-K
was in ceasefire agreement with Government of India since
April 28, 2001, till March 27, 2015 when it unilaterally
pulled out of the truce and attacked
the Indian Army in Chandel District
on June 4, 2015, causing the death of 18 Army personnel
and injuring another 11 soldiers. Significantly, NSCN-K
had also entered into a ceasefire agreement with Myanmar
on April 9, 2012, which allowed it elbow room to maintain
peace with Myanmar while stepping up violence in its area
of operation in India. This made things difficult for
India, as Myanmar lacked a legal framework to take action
against it, even if Indian diplomatic efforts could convince
Myanmar to take punitive action against NSCN-K. There
is a possibility now that things may change.
With the
signing of NCA and NSCN-K’s exclusion, the group’s earlier
ceasefire with Myanmar is in danger of being derecognized.
In fact, U Kyaw Sein in the interview to Independent
Mon News Agency had acknowledged that, at a meeting
with the Government at Myanmar Peace Center on September
16, 2015, officials told the NSCN-K that if it did not
participate in the NCA signing, the group would be included
in the unlawful groups list.
Significantly,
following NSCN-K's refusal to be part of the NCA, Myanmar
troops have launched punitive operations against the outfit's
facilities in Myanmar Naga Hills (MNH). Two major bases
at Ponyu and Langhting were set afire and a few weapons
seized, driving cadres into forest and mountain hideouts.
Myanmar now has the legal cover to act against NSCN-K,
as and when it decides to do so. Further, after resolving
a majority of conflicts in the country, Myanmar can effectively
turn the heat on the remaining insurgent outfits outside
the NCA. It is, however, likely to take significant diplomatic
efforts to convince Myanmar to act effectively and in
a sustained manner against the anti-India groups.
Meanwhile,
as the NCA was being signed in Myanmar, Paresh
Baruah, ‘commander-in-chief’ of the United Liberation
Front of Asom – Independent (ULFA-I)
spoke to The Assam Tribune over phone from an undisclosed
location and claimed that the United National Liberation
Front of Western South East Asia (UNLFWSEA)
would enhance its strength by incorporating another nine
militant outfits in its fold. The UNLFWSEA was formed
on April 17, 2015, by four active militant groups of the
Northeast region – NSCN-K, ULFA-I; the IK Songbijit faction
of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-IKS);
and Kamtapur Liberation Organisation (KLO)
– with the aim of setting up a ‘northeast government-in-exile’,
reportedly to be based in Myanmar. S.S. Khaplang, the
NSCN-K ‘chief’ is chairman of this new front, UNLFWSEA.
Paresh
Baruah claimed that two Meghalaya-based outfits – Garo
National Liberation Army (GNLA)
and Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC) – have
already expressed their desire to join the common platform.
He added that the formal process of these outfits joining
the new grouping may be completed within the current year.
Further, the Coordination
Committee (CorCom), a common platform
of seven militant groups of Manipur, is likely to join
the new front. Baruah claimed that six member outfits
of CorCom were ready to join UNLFWSEA immediately, “But
we want the entire CorCom to join us. They have some problem
with one of the constituents and we are hoping that they
can settle their problems soon so that the entire CorCom
can join us. We are expecting that the seven outfits of
Manipur will be joining hands with us within this year.”
Baruah also claimed that one insurgent group from Tripura
would also be joining the front ‘soon’.
While the
developments in Myanmar can be seen as an opportunity
to put increased pressure on the militant formations in
India’s Northeast, UNLFW is seeking out ways to withstand
that pressure and keep the situation boiling at a time
when a ‘historic
accord’ has been signed between the
Government of India and the largest rebel Naga group,
the National Socialist Council of Nagalim – Isak Muivah
(NSCN-IM)
on August 3, 2015, raising hopes of a larger peace in
the Northeast.
According
to South Asia Terrorism Portal database there has
been a sustained decline in insurgent violence in India’s
Northeast over the years, with occasional spikes in certain
theatres. As of October 25, 2015, the Northeast as whole
recorded a total of 236 fatalities, including 52 civilians,
46 Security Force (SF) personnel and 138 militants, while
the figure for the corresponding period in 2014 saw a
total of 333 fatalities including 145 civilians, 17 SF
personnel and 171 militants. Significantly, however, though
more than two months remain in the current year, SF fatalities
have already doubled in comparison to the whole of 2014.
In fact, one thing stands out in the fatalities data for
the Northeast: SF fatalities had not crossed 40 since
2008, but have already touched 46 in 2015 (as of October
25).
Fatalities
in Terrorist Violence in India's Northeast 2005-2015
Year
|
Civilians
|
SFs
|
Terrorists
|
Total
|
2005
|
334
|
69
|
314
|
717
|
2006
|
232
|
92
|
313
|
637
|
2007
|
457
|
68
|
511
|
1036
|
2008
|
404
|
40
|
607
|
1051
|
2009
|
270
|
40
|
542
|
852
|
2010
|
77
|
22
|
223
|
322
|
2011
|
79
|
35
|
132
|
246
|
2012
|
90
|
18
|
208
|
316
|
2013
|
95
|
21
|
136
|
252
|
2014
|
245
|
23
|
197
|
465
|
2015
|
52
|
46
|
138
|
236
|
Total
|
2335
|
474
|
3321
|
6130
|
Source:
SATP, *Data till October 25, 2015
As battle
lines are redrawn in the Northeast, there is a lurking
danger of escalation of violence. The NSCN-K, is trying
to capture the militant space apparently vacated by the
Isak-Muivah faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland
(NSCN-IM). If Paresh Baruah is to be believed, and despite
the potentially mounting pressure in Myanmar, S.S. Khaplang
is in no mood to come to the negotiating table any time
soon. However, if India gets its Myanmar maths correct,
the militants will find the situation getting progressively
more difficult.
|
Punjab:
Rising Tempest
Ambreen
Agha
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On October
14, 2015, at least seven people, including three contestants
of the upcoming Local Government Elections (LGEs), were
killed and 13 were injured when a suicide bomber blew
himself up at the camp office of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz
(PML-N) Member of National Assembly (MNA) Sardar Amjad
Khosa in the Taunsa Sharif city of Taunsa tehsil
(revenue unit) in Dera Ghazi Khan District, Punjab Province.
Jama'at-ul-Ahrar (JuA, Group of the Free), a breakaway
faction of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
claimed responsibility for the attack. JuA 'spokesman'
Ehsanullah Ehsan, in an email statement, vowed that TTP-JuA
attacks would continue until Sharia'h (Islamic)
law was fully implemented in Pakistan: “We want to make
it clear to the Pakistani rulers that your policies and
military operations can't weaken our determinations, rather
our firm determination helps us in achieving and attacking
our targets."
Khosa,
who was not present at the camp office at the time of
the attack, stated, "As per routine, people were
gathered in my hujra [a hall for holding meetings]
to discuss their issues, when a powerful blast took place.
Many of my close political workers lost their lives in
this attack, but it will not make us back down from our
battle against terrorism.” The LGEs are scheduled to
take place on December 3, 2015.
On October
15, 2015, Security Forces (SFs), raided a house located
in the Jorian village near the Dhamial Base in Rawalpindi
District at 2:00am. As the joint raiding team reached
the house, terrorists opened fire and hurled hand grenades.
In the ensuing exchange of fire and suicide blasts, three
terrorists, including two women; and one Police commando,
identified as Irshad Ahmed, was killed. The women terrorists
were identified as Malika Bibi and Sumaira Bibi. Two children
inside the house were also killed when one of the women
blew herself up. One of the injured terrorists was a
'commander' of the TTP and was planning a terrorist attack
during Muharram (the first month of the Islamic
calendar, commemorated as a period of mourning by the
Shia community) in the District. Muharram started on October
15, 2015. Police later searched the house and recovered
two 9mm pistols, two hand grenades, and one old car reportedly
loaded with explosives.
Earlier,
on September 13, 2015, at least 10 persons were killed
and 59 were injured when a suicide bomber targeted a rickshaw
near Vehari Chowk in Multan District. No outfit has claimed
responsibility for the attack so far.
On August
15, 2015, in a high
profile attack, the Home Minister
of the Punjab Province, Colonel Shuja Khanzada (Retd.)
and 22 others, including Deputy Superintendent of Police
(DSP) Shaukat Shah, were killed, and another 23 persons
were injured, in a suicide attack, which took place when
between 50-100 people were attending a jirga (tribal
council) at Khanzada’s political office in the Shadi Khan
Village of Attock District. This attack shares similarities
with the latest October 15 bombing, in terms of the target
and event.
Punjab
has experienced political killings in the past as well.
The last high profile political killing was, of course,
the assassination of Salman
Taseer, the then Governor of the Punjab
Province, who was killed in Islamabad Capital Territory,
on January 4, 2011, by one of his own body guards, Malik
Mumtaz Hussain Qadri. Qadri was reportedly incensed by
the Governor’s efforts to amend the controversial blasphemy
law [a punitive law against any critic or defamer of the
Islamic religion, Prophet Mohammad or the holy Quran],
as also his advocacy of Aasia Bibi, a Christian woman
sentenced to death on November 7, 2010, for alleged blasphemy.
Similarly, former Federal Minister for Minorities Affairs,
Shahbaz Bhatti, was killed in a targeted attack on March
2, 2011 in Islamabad for his open
opposition to the country’s controversial blasphemy laws.
Fidayeen-e-Muhammad [Those who Sacrifice their Lives for
Prophet Muhammad], a faction of the TTP and al Qaeda-Punjab
Chapter, had claimed responsibility for the attack. Pamphlets
left by them at the incident site declared, "anyone
who criticizes the blasphemy law has no right to live."
According
to partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict
Management (ICM), Punjab has already recorded 155
terrorism-linked fatalities in the current year, including
89 civilians, 58 terrorists and eight SF personnel (all
data till October 25, 2015). During the corresponding
period in 2014, the Province had recorded a total of 101
fatalities, including 65 civilians, 21 terrorists and
15 SF personnel.
Dera Ghazi
Khan, the location of the most recent attack, has, thus
far, recorded a total 17 terrorism-related incidents since
2005, resulting in a total of 142 fatalities, including
128 civilians, 13 terrorists and one SF trooper. Most
of the fatalities in the District have been the result
of suicide attacks. Dera Ghazi Khan has recorded a total
of four suicide attacks since 2005. The last suicide attack
in the District before the October 14, 2015, incident
was in 2011. On April 3, 2011, at least 51 persons were
killed and more than 100 were injured when two suicide
bombers blew themselves up outside the shrine of Sufi
saint Ahmed Sultan, popularly known as Sakhi Sarwar. Ehsanullah
Ehsan, the then 'spokesperson' of TTP, had claimed responsibility
for the attack on the shrine. He had said, "Our men
carried out these attacks and we will carry out more in
retaliation for Government operations against our people
in the northwest.”
Prior to
this, on December 15, 2009, a suicide car bomb exploded
in a market outside the residence of the then Punjab Chief
Minister's Senior Adviser, Zulfiqar Khosa in Dera Ghazi
Khan, killing 33 people and injuring 60. In another attack
in the District, on February 5, 2009, a suicide bomber
had blown himself up amidst a crowd of Shia worshippers
outside Johar Ali Imambargah (A Shia place of commemoration)
located in Muslim Town, killing at least 32 and injuring
another 48.
Continuing
violence in the District as well as in the Province is
a result of the increasing
presence of terrorist outfits that
exploit the spaces created by selective political patronage
in the Province. Dera Ghazi Khan, which lies in South
Punjab, is home to a network of sophisticated jihadi
formations, as are other parts of the Province. The District
is also the location of the country's largest nuclear
facilities, creating extraordinary vulnerabilities to
terrorist attack. The other Districts of the Province
are also under threat. Significantly, on September 17,
2015, the Police arrested an Afghanistan-trained terrorist,
identified as Umer Hayat alias Darvesh, from MPR
Colony of Orangi Town in Karachi (Sindh). Darvesh, associated
with Tehreek-e-Imarat Islamia, Afghanistan, hailed from
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province and was planning to carry
out an attack on the Kamra Airbase in Attock District,
Punjab. Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) Senior Superintendent
of Police (SSP) Junaid Ahmed Shaikh disclosed that Darvesh
was also a suicide bomber who had trained two suicide
bombers, Raz Mohammed and Taj Mohammed and that, “The
purported suicide bombers had been sent to Punjab to carry
out a terror act at the Kamra Airbase.”
The dismal
situation is further compounded by the tacit support provided
to a variety of terrorist and extremist formations by
the Federal and Provincial Governments, making the Province
an ideological sanctuary and a recruitment ground for
various terrorist groups. Indeed, early on January 1,
2015, Awami National Party (ANP) Central General Secretary
Mian Iftikhar Hussain declared Punjab a “training centre
for terrorists and their masterminds” and demanded that
the Government initiate decisive action against the terrorist
leadership and infrastructure in the Province. He stressed,
further, that “terrorism could not be eliminated from
the country until an operation began against terrorist
organisations in Punjab”.
The implicit
support of the judiciary is also worrisome. The trial
of top Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)
‘commander’ Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, the alleged mastermind
of the November 26, 2008, Mumbai (India) terror attacks
(also known as 26/11) case, lingers on, with the courts
approving every delaying device, including the interminable
adjournment of hearings. Significantly, on December 18,
2014, the Islamabad Anti-Terrorism Court Judge Syed Kausar
Abbas Zaidi who was hearing the case, granted bail to
Lakhvi, noting "evidence against Lakhvi was deficient".
This led to an uproar, both in India and in the international
community. Under intense pressure, Lakhvi was rearrested
but was released again on bail on April 9, 2015.
Further,
the Province is both home and host to LeT 'founder' and
Jama'at-ud-Dawa (JuD) 'chief' Hafiz Muhammad Saeed whose
frequent incitement to violent jihad against India
and the West at public gatherings and rallies has been
widely documented, as have been the terrorist activities
of the groups he leads. LeT/JuD, nevertheless, continues
to be cultivated and supported as an anti-India asset
by the Pakistani establishment, with complete freedom
of activity in across Pakistan, including the Islamabad
Capital Territory. Demonstrating its duplicitous stand
on JuD, the Pakistan Government on January 22, 2015, declared
that it had ‘banned’ the group, along with several other
terrorist organistaions, including the Haqqani Network.
However, earlier on January 16, 2015, Pakistan’s Minister
for Defence Production told Hindustan Times in
an exclusive interview, “We are looking to ban terror
organisations but the JuD is a charitable organisation
and the Government of Pakistan has no evidence against
Hafiz Saeed or the JuD.” Subsequently after several u-turns,
Pakistan’s External Affairs Ministry spokesperson stated
that there was "no new ban" on JuD. Describing
this "as the same cycle of plants and denials, the
same smoke and mirrors trick, reassuring gullible 'believers'
without changing realities." SAIR
noted,
Interestingly,
JuD was consistently included in its list of terrorist
organisations by the National Assembly since 2005,
and this was used as grounds to 'take control
of' many of the organisation's madrassas and institutions,
especially by the Punjab Government. The actual
staff and management remained very much with the
same individuals who controlled these institutions
before the purported 'take over', but there was
now a pretext that permitted the Government to
directly and generously fund their activities.
This
cover was blown in 2009, when the Lahore High
Court quashed proceedings against Hafiz Muhammad
Saeed on the grounds that JuD was not a banned
organisation, since no notification to this effect
had been issued by the Ministry of Interior or
by the Punjab Government.
Nevertheless,
the National Assembly blithely continued to include
JuD in its 'updated list' of banned organisation
in 2012, even as official funding to its many
madrassas and institutions flowed on.
All
this is a part of Pakistan's strategy of deception,
its careful calibration of policy as a 'minimal
satisfier', responding reluctantly to meet the
least of requirements where international - particularly
US - pressure becomes unbearable, while insistently
protecting the infrastructure, integrity and continuity
of the many 'sarkari jehadi' groups it has long
cultivated.
|
A December
20, 2014, Pakistani report indicated that JuD continued
to remain “Enlisted under UNSCR 1267” since December 10,
2008. Despite this long and purported 'ban' JuD and its
leader Saeed – who has a USD 10 million bounty placed
on his head by Washington, find no reason to conceal their
activities.
Terrorists
have targeted important Government installations in the
Punjab in the past. On September 6, 2012, three terrorists
on a mission to target a nuclear power plant in the Ali
Khel area of Bhakkar District, which borders Dera Ghazi
Khan, were killed in a premature blast.
A day earlier, on September 5, 2012, the Inter-Services
Intelligence (ISI) Agency had reportedly intercepted a
telephone call from the TTP, tapping into a conversation
regarding finalisation of the strategy for attacks on
nuclear installations in Dera Ghazi Khan. Again, on August
16, 2012, the Minhas Air Force Base at Kamra in Attock
District, believed to be one of the centres where Pakistan
has stockpiled its nuclear arsenal, was attacked
by TTP terrorists. Nine terrorists, including six suicide
bombers, dressed in military uniforms and armed with rocket
propelled-grenades targeted the base, killing two Pakistan
Air Force (PAF) personnel. All nine terrorists were killed
in the retaliatory action.
Punjab
has long been the centre of sustained radicalization,
giving a durable base to radical Islamist and terrorist
groupings. The burgeoning extremism that emanates from
the power centre of Pakistan has put the country at risk.
Regrettably, the principal response from the establishment
has been of denial and the claim that the attacks inside
Pakistan have roots ‘outside’. Even as Pakistan aggressively
expands its weapon-oriented nuclear program, the home
grown and nurtured terrorist outfits embark on a ferocious
rampage, determined to destroy their own creators. The
infrastructure of terrorism built by the civil-military
leadership in the name of 'national security' has grown
beyond containment, demonstrating its capacities by attacking
the symbols of democracy and sensitive security installations
in and beyond the Province.
|
Weekly Fatalities:
Major Conflicts in South Asia
October 19-25, 2015
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists/Insurgents
|
Total
|
BANGLADESH
|
|
Islamist Extremism
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Left-wing
Extremism
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Total (BANGLADESH)
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
3
|
INDIA
|
|
Assam
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Jammu and
Kashmir
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
Manipur
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
Meghalaya
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
Left-Wing
Extremism
|
|
Chhattisgarh
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Odisha
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Total (INDIA)
|
4
|
1
|
5
|
10
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Balochistan
|
23
|
5
|
5
|
33
|
FATA
|
0
|
0
|
21
|
21
|
KP
|
0
|
2
|
6
|
8
|
Sindh
|
21
|
0
|
1
|
22
|
PAKISTAN
(Total)
|
|
|
|
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
|
BANGLADESH
IS
claims
responsibility
of
bomb
attacks
on
Shiite
Muslim
group
in
Dhaka
city:
United
States
(US)-based
SITE
Intelligence
Group
on
October
24
said
that
Islamic
State
(IS)
has
claimed
the
responsibility
of
bomb
attacks
on
Huseni
Dalan,
the
headquarters
of
Shiite
Muslim
group
in
Dhaka
city.
The
bombings,
which
took
place
hours
before
the
Shias
were
scheduled
to
bring
out
a
procession
marking
holy
Ashura,
left
a
14-year-old
boy
dead
and
injured
87
injured.
Daily
Star,
October
26,
2015.
Two
PBCP
cadres
killed
and
three
others
injured
in
Tangail
District:
Two
cadres
of
Purba
Bangla
Communist
Party
(PBCP)
were
killed
and
three
others
injured
in
a
gunfight
with
Rapid
Action
Battalion
(RAB)
at
Maisha
area
of
Hugra
sub-District
in
Tangail
District.
RAB
said
that
three
other
cadres
were
injured
in
the
gunfight.
RAB
also
recovered
one
foreign-made
pistol,
one
shutter
gun,
two
rounds
of
bullet
and
some
shells
from
the
scene.
New
Age,
October
21,
2015.
INDIA
India
downplays
Kashmir-reference:
India
on
October
23
downplayed
the
reference
to
Kashmir
in
a
United
States
(US)-Pakistan
joint
statement,
affirming
its
commitment
to
resolve
issues
with
Pakistan
bilaterally
and
welcomed
the
focus
on
terror
networks
in
the
statement.
Asserting
that
the
statement
devotes
considerable
space
to
the
issue
of
terrorism
and
that
it
was
for
the
first
time
that
Lashkar-e-Taiba
(LeT)
and
Haqqani
network
are
specifically
mentioned
in
it,
Spokesperson
in
the
Ministry
of
External
Affairs
(MEA)
Vikas
Swarup
said
India
also
read
the
assurance
about
these
two
entities
and
terrorism
in
general
offered
by
Pakistan.
Daily
Excelsior,
October
24,
2015.
Terror
infrastructure
across
the
border
is
intact,
says
BSF:
Asserting
that
Pakistan
has
not
dismantled
terror
infrastructure
which
was
still
intact
across
the
border,
the
Border
Security
Force
(BSF)
said
on
October
21,
that
it
was
closely
monitoring
the
movement
along
Jammu
frontier.
"The
terror
infrastructure
is
intact
across
the
border.
That
has
not
been
dismantled.
We
are
carefully
examining
every
activity
across
the
border
line
and
will
take
appropriate
action
whatever
action
is
required
to
be
taken,"
Inspector
General
(IG),
BSF,
Jammu
Frontier,
Rakesh
Sharma
told
reporters
in
Jammu.
The
Hindu,
October
23,
2015.
More
than
40
insurgent
groups
operating
in
Manipur,
says
Deputy
CM
Gaikhangam:
Manipur
Deputy
Chief
Minister
(CM)
Gaikhangam
on
October
19
said
there
are
more
than
40
insurgent
groups
operating
in
the
state.
Speaking
at
the
124th
Raising
Day
of
Manipur
Police
in
Imphal,
he
said
the
number
of
insurgent
groups
included
factions
and
Manipur
Police
had
earned
a
"great
reputation"
for
dealing
with
the
difficult
situation
like
not
only
in
trying
to
contain
insurgency
but
also
in
the
complex
day-to-day
law
and
order
problem,
a
police
department
press
release
quoted
him
as
saying.
Times
of
India,
October
20,
2015.
NEPAL
Prime
Minister
KP
Sharma
Oli
calls
all-party
meet
to
choose
President:
Prime
Minister
KP
Sharma
Oli
on
October
25
(today)
called
an
all-party
meet
to
choose
a
candidate
for
the
post
of
President
through
consensus.
The
meeting
has
been
called
at
the
Legislature-Parliament
building
at
2
pm
today.
Earlier,
the
Central
Working
Committee
meeting
of
the
main
opposition
party
Nepali
Congress
(NC)
had
decided
to
pitch
its
candidates
for
the
post
of
President
and
Vice-President.
Similarly,
the
Standing
Committee
meeting
of
the
ruling
Communist
Party
of
Nepal-Unified
Marxist
Leninist
(CPN-UML)
had
also
decided
to
file
party's
candidacy
for
the
post
of
President.
Himalayan
Times,
October
25,
2015.
PAKISTAN
23
civilians
and
five
SFs
among
33
persons
killed
during
the
week
in
Balochistan:
Ten
people
were
killed
while
several
others
received
injuries
when
a
blast
ripped
through
an
Imambargah
(Shia
place
of
worship)
in
Bhaag
area
of
Bolan
District
in
Balochistan
on
October
22.
At
least
11
people,
including
two
children,
were
killed
and
more
than
20
were
injured
in
a
bomb
blast
that
occurred
inside
a
local
city
bus
at
Dukani
Baba
Chowk
area
on
Sariab
Road
in
provincial
capital
Quetta
on
October
19.
Three
Baloch
Republican
Army
(BRA)
militants
were
killed
in
an
exchange
of
fire
with
the
Frontier
Corps
during
a
search
operation
together
in
Tasp
area
of
Panjgur
District
on
October
19.
Daily
Times;
Dawn;
The
News;
Tribune;
The
Nation;
The
Frontier
Post;
Pakistan
Today;
Pakistan
Observer,
October
20-26,
2015.
Indigenously-made
'Burraq'
drone
kills
21
militants,
destroys
hideouts
in
FATA:
As
many
as
21
terrorists
were
killed
when
Indigenously-made
'Burraq'
drone
carried
out
an
operation
in
North
Waziristan
Agency
of
Federally
Administered
Tribal
Areas
(FATA)
on
October
22.
According
to
the
ISPR,
the
'Burraq'
drone
fired
missiles
and
destroyed
several
militant
hideouts
as
well.
Sources
added
that
it
was
the
first
night
strike
by
Burraq
with
pinpoint
accuracy.
The
military
successfully
tested
'Burraq'
(flying
horse)
and
test-fired
its
laser-guided
missile
'Barq'
(lightning)
in
March.
The News,
October
22,
2015.
At
least
22
persons
killed
in
suicide
blast
in
Sindh:
At
least
22
persons
including
eight
children
were
killed
in
a
suicide
blast
targetting
a
9th
Muharram
(Shia
mourning
period)
procession
near
a
park
in
the
Lashari
area
of
Jacobabad
District
in
Sindh
in
the
evening
of
October
23.
Police
confirmed
40
others
including
several
children,
have
been
injured
in
the
attack.
Senior
Superintendent
of
Police
(SSP)
Zafar
Malik
said,
"It
appears
from
the
evidence
collected
that
it
was
a
suicide
attack."
He
added
that
a
pistol
has
also
been
found
from
the
site
of
the
blast.
The News,
October
24,
2015.
All
issues
including
Kashmir
to
be
resolved
by
India,
Pakistan,
says
US
State
Department:
A
United
States
(US)
State
Department
official
on
October
23
said
that
all
issues
including
Kashmir
have
to
be
resolved
between
India
and
Pakistan.
He
added
that
the
US
can
only
facilitate
and
not
provide
mediation
between
both
countries
to
come
to
some
terms.
The
official
further
said
that
any
civil-nuclear
deal
was
not
discussed
during
the
visit
of
the
Pakistani
leadership.
He
also
said
that
good
or
bad
will
have
to
be
decided
by
the
Taliban,
whether
they
are
for
violence
or
if
they
want
peace
in
Afghanistan.
The News,
October
24,
2015.
Pakistan,
US
want
Afghan
Taliban
come
to
the
table:
The
United
States
(US)
and
Pakistan
on
October
22
called
upon
the
Afghan
Taliban
leaders
to
enter
direct
talks
with
Kabul
and
work
towards
a
sustainable
peace
settlement.
Prime
Minister
Nawaz
Sharif
and
President
Barack
Obama
discussed
the
importance
of
continued
cooperation
against
terrorists
and
violent
extremist
groups.
President
Obama
affirmed
Pakistan's
role
as
a
key
counter-terrorism
partner
and
recognized
the
sacrifices
that
Pakistani
civilians,
military,
and
law
enforcement
personnel
have
made
over
the
years
as
they
confront
terrorism
and
militant
groups.
Daily Times,
October
23,
2015.
Pakistan
could
be
fifth
largest
nuclear
power
by
2025,
says
Nuclear
Notebook
Report:
According
to
the
Nuclear
Notebook
Report
by
Bulletin
of
the
Atomic
Scientists,
Pakistan
now
has
a
stockpile
of
110-130
warheads,
compared
with
90-110
in
2011,
and
at
this
rate,
it
could
emerge
as
the
fifth
largest
nuclear
power
by
2025.
The
Nuclear
Notebook,
one
of
the
most
authoritative
sources
of
information
on
Pakistan's
nuclear
capabilities,
also
said
that
Pakistan
continues
to
expand
its
nuclear
arsenal
and
production
of
fissile
material.
Times
of
India,
October
22,
2015.
Islamabad
with
'tactical
nukes'
ready
to
counter
Indian
aggression,
says
Foreign
Secretary
Aizaz
Ahmad
Chaudhry:
Foreign
Secretary
Aizaz
Ahmad
Chaudhry
while
speaking
on
a
television
channel
on
October
20
said
that
Pakistan
is
fully
capable
of
answering
any
aggression
from
India
as
it
has
developed
'short-range
tactical
nuclear
weapons'.
He
said
that
Pakistan
was
ready
for
a
nuclear
weapon
race
with
its
South
Asian
rival
and
ruled
out
any
deal
or
compromise
on
the
country's
nuclear
program.
Chaudhry
said
Pakistan
knew
how
to
show
India
the
right
path
as
it
has
developed
small
tactical
nukes
to
convert
any
'adventure
into
misadventure'.
The News,
October
21,
2015.
SRI
LANKA
Only
extremists
and
LTTE
sympathizers
against
domestic
mechanism,
says
Sri
Lankan
PM
Ranil
Wickremesinghe:
The
Sri
Lankan
Prime
Minister
(PM)
Ranil
Wickremesinghe
has
said
that
only
the
local
extremists
and
Liberation
Tigers
of
Tamil
Eelam
(LTTE)
sympathizers
are
against
the
domestic
mechanism
proposed
in
the
United
Nations
(UN)
resolution
on
Sri
Lanka
adopted
at
the
UN
Human
Rights
Council
(UNHRC)
in
Geneva
last
month
(September).
Participating
in
the
parliamentary
debate
on
the
Geneva
proposals,
the
PM
said
the
initiatives,
commenced
by
the
Government,
aim
to
unify
all
communities
and
heal
broken
hearts.
Colombo Page,
October
24,
2015.
Prime
Minister
tables
UNHRC
resolution
and
commission
reports
in
Parliament:
Prime
Minister
Ranil
Wickremesinghe
on
October
20
tabled
the
resolution
adopted
at
the
United
Nations
Human
Rights
Council
(UNHRC)
as
well
as
the
Udalagama
and
Paranagama
Commission
Reports
in
Parliament.
The
Prime
Minister
had
earlier
said
that
the
Government
will
debate
on
the
UNHRC
resolution
after
tabling
the
reports.
The
report
of
Maxwell
Paranagama,
deals
with
issues
related
to
violation
of
the
International
Humanitarian
Law
or
War
Crimes
allegedly
committed
by
both
parties
and
the
recommendations
to
prevent
a
repetition.
Colombo Page,
October
21,
2015.
The South
Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that
brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on
terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on
counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on
related economic, political, and social issues, in the South
Asian region.
SAIR is a project
of the Institute
for Conflict Management
and the
South
Asia Terrorism Portal.
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