SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 32, February 8, 2016

PAKISTAN

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Balochistan: Unending Misery
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

At least 12 persons, including four Frontier Corps (FC) officials, were killed and another 38 persons injured on February 6, 2016, when a suicide bomber blew himself up near an FC vehicle in the Multan Chowk area of Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)'s ‘central spokesperson’ Mohammad Khorasani claimed the incident, declaring, in an email statement, “The TTP’s Special Task Force (STF)'s unit carried out the attack that targeted the convoy of Security Forces.”

On January 28, 2016, the same unit of TTP killed four Policemen on the Munir Mengal Road in Satellite Town, Quetta. In that case as well, Khorasani stated, "The TTP's special unit STF's commandos successfully carried out the attack at a Police mobile at Quetta's Satellite Town. The commandos disappeared after the attack."

On January 18, 2016, TTP militants detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting an FC vehicle killing six FC personnel and injuring another one near the Margat FC check post in Quetta. Once again, Khorasani identified “TTP’s special unit Mujahideen Special Group (MSG)” as responsible for the attack, and that the attackers managed to escape after the operation.

On January 13, 2016, at least 15 people, including 13 Police personnel, an FC trooper and a civilian, were killed, while 25 were injured, when a suicide bomber blew himself up near a Government Health Centre in Satellite Town, of Quetta. TTP’s Khurasani claimed the attack in an email, but Azam Tariq, ‘spokesman’ for Jaish-ul-Islam (JuI), made a similar claim, asserting that the attack had been carried out by his group to avenge the torture of people in custody.

There had been a rise in violence against Security Force (SF) personnel in Balochistan since the beginning of 2016. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Balochistan recorded 35 SF fatalities in the first 37 days of the current year, as against 20 such fatalities during the corresponding period of 2015, an increase of 75 per cent.

This conforms to the rising trend visible through 2015. Though overall terrorism related fatalities in the Province declined from 653 in 2014 to 635 in 2015, fatalities among SFs increased from 83 such in 2014, to 90 in 2015 had.

Balochistan has already recorded at least 86 terrorism-related fatalities, including 38 militants, 35 SF personnel and 13 civilians, in the first 37 days 2016. During the same period of the preceding year, the Province recorded 39 such fatalities, including 20 SF personnel, 12 civilians and seven terrorists. These are early signs of a deteriorating security environment, against declining fatalities in years 2014 and 2015. Such fatalities had also increased on a year-on-year basis between 2011 and 2013.  

According to the SATP database, Balochistan recorded 635 fatalities through 2015, including 298 militants, 247 civilians and 90 SF personnel; in comparison to 653 such fatalities, including 347 civilians, 223 militants and 83 SFs in 2014. The number and lethality of suicide attacks in the Province also decreased considerably, with just one such incident resulting in two fatalities – the suicide bombers who blew themselves up when intercepted by SFs – in 2015; as against four such attacks resulting in 12 deaths and 64 injuries in 2014. The Province also witnessed a decrease in bomb blasts and resultant fatalities, from 84 incidents and 132 deaths in 2014, to 60 incidents and 80 deaths in 2015. While the number of major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) increased in comparison to the previous year, fatalities in these incidents remained low. As against 56 major incidents, resulting in 415 fatalities in 2014, 2015 recorded 74 such incidents, resulting 397 fatalities. Meanwhile, Quetta, the provincial capital, also registered a slight increase in terrorism related incidents, from 100 in 2014 to 102 in 2015. However, attacks on gas pipelines decreased from 17 in 2014 to 10 in 2015.

The official record corroborates these trends. According to an official document released by the Provincial Home Department on November 6, 2015, acts of terrorism as well as sectarian and targeted killings declined by 50 per cent in Balochistan over the preceding two years. Statistics released indicated that 27 people were killed and 13 were wounded in incidents of sectarian killing in 2015, till September, significantly less than the figures for 2014, when 91 people were killed and 129 were wounded. It is a further and marked improvement over 2013, when 258 people were killed and 478 were injured in sectarian incidents. There has also been a significant decline in attacks on settlers, mostly Punjabi- and Urdu-speaking residents of Balochistan. In 2010, around 113 settlers were killed. However, this figure dropped to 91 in 2014, and 36 in 2015.

Attributing the successes to the National Action Plan (NAP), Provincial Home Secretary Akbar Hussain Durrani stated, on December 28, 2015, that more than 9,000 suspected militants and criminals were arrested by Police, Levies, Frontier Corps and Intelligence Agencies in Balochistan as a part of the NAP in 2015. He claimed that a total of 1,973 intelligence based-operations were conducted in Balochistan to arrest elements involved in targeted killings, bomb explosions and kidnappings: "Innocent people were freed, whereas the criminals were charged." Durrani added, further, "Balochistan Government implemented 17 out of 20 points under NAP to bring an end to unrest and maintain law and order situation." The 20-point NAP was implemented in the country in the aftermath of December 16, 2014, militant attack on the Peshawar Amy Public School, in which 148 persons, including 135 school children, were killed.

Extra judicial killings by state agencies and their proxies remain rampant. Through 2015, 247 civilians were killed in Balochistan, of which some 114 were attributable to one or other militant outfit. The remaining 143 ‘unattributed’ fatalities are overwhelmingly the work of the state apparatus and its surrogates. Of the 3,580 civilian fatalities recorded in Balochistan since 2004 [data till February 7, 2016], at least 922 civilian killings are attributable to one or other militant outfit. Of these, 361 civilian killings (205 in the South and 156 in the North) have been claimed by Baloch separatist formations, while Islamist and sectarian extremist formations – primarily LeJ, TTP and Ahrar-ul-Hind (Liberators of India) – claimed responsibility for another 561 civilian killings, 554 in the North (mostly in and around Quetta) and seven in the South. The 361 civilian killings attributed to Baloch formations include at least 153 Punjabi settlers since 2006. The remaining 2,658 civilian fatalities – 1,612 in the South and 1,046 in the North – remain ‘unattributed’. A large proportion of the ‘unattributed’ fatalities, particularly in the Southern region, are believed to be the result of enforced disappearances carried out by state agencies, or by their proxies, prominently including the Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Aman Balochistan (TNAB, Movement for the Restoration of Peace, Balochistan). The large number of unattributed civilian fatalities strengthens the widespread conviction that Security Agencies engage in “kill and dump” operations against local Baloch dissidents, a reality that Pakistan’s Supreme Court has clearly recognized.

The Voice for Baloch Missing Persons (VBMP) noted, on January 1, 2016, that approximately 463 people were forcefully disappeared while 157 mutilated bodies were recovered from Balochistan in 2015. Nasrullah Baloch, Chairman of VBMP, observed, “The VBMPS report is based on documents received from Missing persons’ families, Human Rights Organization and political parties," adding  that number of enforced disappeared persons in 2015 could be higher, as the Government recently admitted to having arrested 9,000 people under NAP from Balochistan in 2015.

While Islamabad deploys disproportionate and lawless force against to suppress all Baloch dissidence, including political activists raising genuine grievances, the response against Islamist terror outfits remains feeble. This is despite the fact that the Forces engaged in the ‘fight against terror’ have lost far more personnel to these Islamist groupings than to Baloch insurgents.

While North Balochistan is afflicted by Islamist extremist groups such as TTP and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Baloch insurgent groups operate in the Southern part. The major Baloch armed formations include Baloch Republican Army (BRA), Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), Balochistan Liberation Tigers (BLT) and United Baloch Army (UBA).

Separately, in a major setback to the Baloch people’s sentiment, an Anti-terrorism Court (ATC) in Quetta acquitted former President General (Retd.) Pervez Musharraf on January 18, 2016, in the case of the murder of Baloch nationalist leader Nawab Akbar Bugti. The Court also acquitted Former Federal Home Minister Aftab Khan Sherpao and former Provincial Home Minister Shoaib Nosherwani. In January 14, 2015, an ATC had indicted Musharraf, Sherpao and Nausherwani in the murder case. Musharraf, who was President at the time, had directed a military operation in which Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP) leader Nawab Akbar Bugti was assassinated along with 38 of his comrades in the mountains of Dera Bugti on August 26, 2006.

The Government’s apathy towards the Baloch and to development in the Province continues to be reflected in the region’s economic human development profile, despite its enormous wealth in natural resources, and the location of a range of high profile projects backed by China. The impact of these projects on local populations has been nil, and outside workers have been brought in, to the exclusion of locals. Numberless programmes and packages have been announced for the development of Balochistan and, on August 6, 2015, Prime Minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif approved another, the Pur-Aman (Peaceful) Balochistan programme. Given the past record, however, there is a question mark against the potential success of this programme as well.

Significantly, the Aghaz-e-Haqooq-e-Balochistan (Beginning of the Rights of Balochistan) package, which was launched by then Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani with much fanfare on November 23, 2009, failed to bring progress to the Province. On its own admission, the Government has only been able to implement 15 of the 61 proposals contained in the package.

Even if these programs bring some development to the region, this would be too little too late. Indeed, Brahamdagh Bugti, the separatist leader of the Balochistan Republican Party (BRP), on August 26, 2015, observed, “Development in Balochistan is irrelevant, as a democratic Government is not present in the Province and the Baloch people were not included in the decision.”  

INDIA

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Bihar: Maoist Retreat
Mrinal Kanta Das
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

A top Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) leader, identified as Ram Chandra Mahto aka Pramod aka Chirag Da, was killed in an exchange of fire during a joint operation conducted by Bihar Police, Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), Commando Battalion for Resolute Action (CoBRA) and Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) at Charkapaththar area in the Jamui District on January 29, 2016. Mahto’s body was recovered along with one looted Police rifle, one .303 regular weapon, one 8mm pistol and one country made pistol. Mahto was a ‘member’ of the Purvi Bihar Purvottar Jharkhand Special Area Committee (PBPJSAC, Eastern Bihar North Eastern Jharkhand Special Area Committee) and wanted in 20 cases in Bihar and over three dozen cases in Jharkhand. He carried a head money of INR 2.5 million in Jharkhand and INR 500,000 in Bihar. Confirming the incident Inspector General of Police (IG), Operations, S.M. Khopde said the killing of Chirag was a big feat.

On January 8, 2016, four Maoists were killed while one CoBRA trooper received bullet injuries in an exchange of fire between Security Force (SF) personnel and Maoists at Bandh Gorya village under the Dhibra Police Station area in Aurangabad District. One of the Maoists killed was identified as Rajiv, whereas the identity of the remaining three was not known. SF personnel also recovered four weapons, including one AK-47, one carbine and two pistols from the encounter spot. The encounter took place during a joint operation conducted by SFs in the Bhaluahi, Gopaldera, Morma, Chuchiya and Dulare areas under the Dhibra and Dumaria Police Station limits in the District.

Till February 5, 2016, 15 Maoists had been arrested in the current year in Bihar, including a CPI-Maoist ‘area commander’.

These operational successes at the beginning of the year augur well for SFs in their fight against Maoists in the State.

Significantly, the successful operations launched by SFs are notable in that only seven Maoists were killed in the State during the three years between 2013 and 2015. On the other hand, SFs lost 35 of their personnel over the same period. In fact since the formation of the CPI-Maoist in 2004, SFs have lost more personnel, 181, than the Maoists, at 176. SFs have already lost two of their personnel in the current year. On January 25, 2016, CPI-Maoist cadres killed a Policeman, identified as Girija Paswan, in Aurangabad District. The Maoists claimed that he was killed as he was suspected to have told his superiors about the whereabouts of Rajiv alias Bihari, killed in the January 8, 2016, encounter. Again on January 30, 2016, a Police official was killed at Lathiakoresi village in Munger District. Police said that, on a tip-off, a Police team led by Additional Superintendent of Police (ASP), Operations, Navin Kumar, went to Lathiakoresi village to arrest a suspected Maoist Lallan Koda. According to reports, Maoist ‘sympathizers’ opened fire at the Police, resulting in an exchange of fire in which Assistant Sub-Inspector (ASI) Bhavesh Singh died. One Maoist ‘sympathiser’ was also injured in the firing.

Meanwhile, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, through 2015, nine persons, including four civilians, three SF personnel and two Maoists, were killed in 2015; as compared to 17 fatalities, including seven civilians, seven SF personnel and three Maoists in 2014. This was the lowest number of fatalities recorded across categories in Bihar since the formation of the CPI-Maoist in 2004. At least seven persons have already been killed in Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-related violence in the State in 2016, including five Maoists and two Police personnel. Also, on January 22, 2016, Maoists killed one villager at Gulab Bigha village under the Madanpur Police Station in Aurangabad District, suspecting him of being a ‘Police informer’.

Giving further credence to claims of an improving security situation in the State, there were no major incident (resulting in three or more fatalities) reported in 2015, as against one such incident in 2014, where at least three CRPF personnel were killed and eight were injured near Baranda Mor under Dhibra Police Station area in Aurangabad District. There was also no attack involving ‘people’s militia’ in 2015, as against three such incidents in 2014. People’s militia constitute the armed local support the Maoists mobilize in support of their movement.

The Maoists were also involved in seven exchange of fire incidents in 2015, as against six such incidents in 2014; nine arson incidents in 2015 against 11 in 2014; and one abduction incident on record, as against three in 2014.

The Bihar Police arrested 153 Maoists through 2015 in addition to 163 in 2014. This included the catch of three ‘sub zonal commanders’, one ‘commander’, four ‘area commanders’ including one belonging to the Tritiya Prastuti Committee (TPC) and one ‘platoon commander’. On May 16, 2015, acting on intelligence inputs, a CoBRA team and Bihar Police personnel arrested 10 CPI-Maoist cadres, including four 'key functionaries' of the outfit in Gaya District. The arrested Maoists, included the 'secretary' of the 'Magadh Zone' and member of 'Bihar Regional Committee' Sanjeevan Baitha alias Shravanji; 'Treasurer' of the 'Magadh Zone' Gorelal Ramani, who carried a reward of INR 300,000 on his head; and 'sub-zonal' members Umesh Yadav and Basant Yadav. In 2014, 16 ‘commander’ rank cadres were arrested across Bihar.

SF personnel also recovered a huge amount of arms, ammunition and explosives in Bihar. In one of the incidents of recovery, the State Police seized 7,000 detonators, 3,000 explosive devices and 2,000 kilograms of ammonium nitrate during raids conducted at CPI-Maoist hideouts in Rohtas District on March 14, 2015. Further, on September 8, 2015, Central Para-military Forces (CPMFs) and the District Police engaged in anti-CPI-Maoist operation recovered over 400 kilograms of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) planted by the Maoists from the dense forest areas of Lakhisarai District.

Bihar had not done well with regard to the surrender of Maoists since 2012. However, there was marginal improvement in the number of surrendered cadres in Bihar in 2015. Seven Maoists surrendered in 2015 in comparison to none in 2014. The cadres who surrendered in 2015 included Nageshwar, an ‘area committee member’, Sanjay, a ‘sub-zonal committee member’ and Anandi, a ‘sub zonal commander’. It is clear that the Bihar Government’s surrender policy fails to attract the Maoists to join the mainstream. Notably, at least 608 Maoist cadres had surrendered through 2015 (excluding the seven in Bihar) across the country.           

The Director General of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), Prakash Mishra, observed on February 2, 2015, that the ‘red zone’ was steadily shrinking in Bihar and Jharkhand. He further asserted that this had been made possible because CRPF personnel were not only carrying out operations against Maoists but also helping the common man in many other ways, such as distributing essentials such as woolen clothes, utensils etc., and enabling them to get their Aadhaar (Universal Identity) cards.

Remarkably, the Maoists were a no show during the five phase Bihar Assembly Elections conducted between October 12 and November 5, 2015. Defying the Maoists’ poll boycott call, 56.80 per cent of registered voters cast their vote. 52.73 per cent voting had been recorded during State Assembly Elections in 2010. Just before the election, the Maoists issued a four-page letter, exhorting the people to “Take up arms to establish your authority over jungle, jal (water) and zamin (land) and be a part of the armed class struggle to defeat these feudal and imperial forces robbing the country for centuries.” 

The battle against the Maoists is, however, far from over, as reflected in recent incidents. More worryingly, the Maoists continue to enjoy some ‘mass support’, as displayed in the January 30, 2016, killing of a Policeman by Maoist ‘sympathizers’. Earlier, on October 26, 2015, a Special Auxiliary Police trooper, Surendra Kumar Jaiswal, was beaten to death and six other Policemen, including a Station House Officer, were injured when villagers attacked a Police team which had gone to arrest a CPI-Maoist cadre at Kushmahat village under the Nima Chandpura Police Station limits in Begusarai District. Superintendent of Police Manoj Kumar disclosed that the villagers started hurling stones at the Police team and freed the Maoist and that the Police opened fire in its defence.

The Maoists also issued five bandh (shut down strike) calls on different issues in 2015, in comparison to three such calls in 2014. The May 24-25, 2015, bandh was the most violent. 32 trucks were set ablaze by CPI-Maoist cadres on the busy Grand Trunk Road in Gaya District. Media reports indicated that life in major parts of the Sherghati Sub-Division of Gaya District, particularly Dumaria, Imamganj, Banke Bazar and Raushanganj Police Station areas, came to a standstill as CPI-Maoist cadres got markets, road transport, banking services and Government offices closed. The Maoists were protesting the killing of Urmila Ganjoo alias Sarita, a member of the ‘Bihar-Jharkhand Chhattisgarh Special Area Committee’, by the SFs on May 17, 2015.

Further, there are signs that Maoists splinter groups such as People’s Liberation Front of India (PLFI), and Tritiya Prastuti Committee (TPC), mainly based in Jharkhand, are trying to extend their influence into Bihar. On March 30, 2015, PLFI orchestrated a blast at a flat in the Bahadurpur residential colony in State capital Patna. It was a low intensity blast in which no casualty was reported. Two live timer-attached bombs were recovered from the spot. Further, nine PLFI cadres were arrested from Bihar – five from Patna on June 3 and four from Nalanda on October 2, 2015. A Maoist cadre was also killed by TPC cadres under the Kothi Police Station area of Talaiya Bazar in Gaya District on March 12, 2015. A TPC ‘area commander’ was also arrested from Rohtas District in Bihar on September 23.        

Despite SF successes, the presence of low-grade violence suggests that the Maoists still wield significant residual strength in the State. Consolidating the gains of 2014, SFs have succeeded in containing Maoist violence even further in 2015, and early trends in 2016 augur well. The Maoists are down and this provides an opportunity to the SF personnel to strengthen their position against the rebels.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

Bangladesh

Left Wing Extremists

INDIA

Jammu and Kashmir

Manipur

Meghalaya

Nagaland

Punjab

Left-Wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Odisha

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

Total (PAKISTAN)