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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 4, July 28, 2015

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

INDIA
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Punjab: Complacence Kills
K.P.S. Gill
Publisher, SAIR; President, Institute for Conflict Management

A day-long standoff between the Punjab Police and three terrorists who had holed up in an abandoned housing complex in the Dinanagar Police Station campus in the Gurdaspur District of Punjab in the early hours of July 27, 2015, ended with the killing of the last of the three terrorists just after 5 pm. A Superintendent of Police and three Home Guards also lost their lives in this gratuitous attack, which included the killing of three civilians in random shootings by the terrorists that led up to the final denouement at the Police Station. Separately, five bombs were found and defused on the Amritsar-Pathankot railway track in Gurdaspur, and initial speculation has linked these to the same group.

There are few surprises here: preliminary evidence, including data on two GPS devices recovered from the slain terrorists, indicates that they entered India from the Shakargarh area of Pakistan; while conclusive identification is yet to be made, there is little doubt that these are Islamist terrorists; the pattern of the attack bears striking resemblance to a succession of so called fidayeen attacks in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K); the Centre claims that it had been warning Punjab of an imminent attack for some time; the Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal claims that the Centre provided no intelligence of any impending threat and had also failed in its duty to prevent infiltration across the international border. Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh has declared, once again, that India would give a “befitting reply” to this new provocation from Pakistan. Nevertheless, initial reports suggest that talks with Pakistan are to continue and the scheduled meeting of Prime Ministers Nawaz Sharif and Narendra Modi in 2016 is still on. Jitendra Singh, Minister of State in the Prime Minister’s Office, speaking even while the operation was ongoing, asserted that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) – the principal sponsor of terrorism in the South Asian region – was likely to be behind this latest attack. Several commentators also speculated that the terrorists were probably affiliated to the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), the Islamist terrorist formation that has long enjoyed the open and enthusiastic support of the Pakistani state.

All this is par for the course, but there are elements that need closer attention. First, the attack is widely being spoken as an aberration, because it occurred in Punjab; others are speaking of it as an ‘overflow’ from J&K, the ‘principal target’ of the Pakistan-backed Islamist terrorists. There is a deeply erroneous reading of the situation here. Over the past years, locations across India have been targeted by the Islamist terrorists; these are not just attacks ‘in J&K’, or ‘on Mumbai’ or ‘on Bodh Gaya’ or ‘on Gurdaspur’; State, city or district jurisdictions may have relevance in terms of tactical responses, but it is folly to believe that the ambitions or the operations of our enemies are in any way circumscribed by these internal arrangements. These attacks are systematically directed against India. Specific targets may be dictated by transient considerations of capacity, tactics or opportunity; but at core, this is a long term strategy to weaken India on every possible occasion, by every available device. Regrettably, our leaderships, particularly in the political, security and intelligence spheres, tend to lapse quickly into complacence regarding regions that are not subjected to sustained violence, despite visible vulnerabilities and threats. Gurdaspar is an obvious case in point; this is an area bordering Pakistan, with a history of volatility, significant vulnerabilities along the border, particularly to drug smuggling – another ‘industry’ actively supported by the Pakistani state; and disturbing legacies of deep involvement in the Khalistani terrorist movement that ravaged Punjab for over 13 years, through the 1980s and early 1990s. There have been continuous intelligence flows indicating that the ISI has been pressuring the many ‘rump elements’ of the defeated Khalistani movement – who Pakistan continues to host and fund in the hope of a possible revival – demanding that they ‘do something’ in Punjab to earn their keep. That they have failed is proof of the degree to which their ideology and networks were completely defeated in Punjab, the complete absence of traction that their occasional efforts have met, and the capacities and penetration that the Punjab Police and intelligence continue to retain. Nevertheless, Pakistan’s intentions and objectives in Punjab have never been in doubt, and the prospect that they could employ different instrumentalities – including the Islamist terrorists in their stables – is something we should have been completely prepared for, and utterly unsurprised by.

Our focus on ISI in the frenzied discussions that follow every new attack is also at least partially misdirected and strategically misleading. The ISI, in particular, has been magnified in the popular imagination into a formidable, indeed, monstrous entity. But this is the same ISI that we defeated comprehensively in Punjab. This is no remarkable, invincible organisation. But despite our national obsession with the ISI, its capacities and its proxies have never been the target of a sustained national strategy and campaign. We have reacted in isolation, locally, to each of its provocations; and slunk back into grateful complacency whenever and wherever we have been spared its venomous attention for any length of time. This is hardly the approach that is going to counter, leave alone defeat, a relentless adversary operating under an ideology of uncompromising hatred based on a deeply held, albeit perverse, Faith.

Crucially, however, our problem is not the ISI alone. Islamist terrorists the world over are, today, operating under the umbrella of an overarching Islamist terrorist Internationale, of which ISI is as much a part as is the Islamic State (IS, formerly Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham, ISIS), al Qaeda, and numerous rag tag Islamist terrorist formations that are proliferating across the world. These groups are not working in isolation, nor is Pakistan their only state sponsor. The virulent ideology of Islamist extremism that underpins all Islamist terrorist groups is shared by numerous states – most prominently including Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. While these states and the many ‘non-state actors’ may have their own turf wars, disputes about command and control, about priorities, and about tactics, on ideology and in broad strategic orientation, this is a single complex. And as far as India is concerned, there is an identity of purpose across this entire complex: this is a ‘region of disbelief’, a land where the kafir has escaped rightful Islamist domination, and a necessary theatre of ‘re-conquest’. Billions of petro-dollars, injected overwhelmingly through a range of illegal channels, have, over the decades, funded the proliferation of Wahabi-Salafists mosques and madrasas across India, and particularly in its most sensitive and unstable concentrations – including J&K and along other vulnerable borders. We may, for the moment, rejoice in the fact that very few Indians have been tempted to join IS in Iraq and Syria – but hundreds have certainly gone across to join jihadi groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan. To believe that the hundreds of thousands of Indians who are currently being exposed to the distorted doctrines of Salafist and extremist Islam, will forever remain impervious to the seduction of the siren song of the Islamist terrorist jihad, is to ignore the violent realities that are sweeping across West Asia, North Africa and parts of South Asia today, and that have deeply infected even the tiny populations of Muslims in the affluent West.

There is one aspect of the Dinanagar incident that is of significance in this context. Some criticism is now being levelled against the Punjab Police, both for its decision to keep the better equipped and trained Indian Army and National Security Guard (NSG) out of the operation, as well as for various aspects of its own response. A tactical response assessment, based on a minute by minute examination of responses of this entire operation must, of course, precede any authoritative and prudent critique; but certain deficiencies were clearly visible. The absence of protective gear among even the ‘elite’ Special Weapons and Tactics (SWAT) team leading the response; poor training visible in the clustering of groups of policemen, in postures during firing, in their movements, and some morbidly obese individuals in the Force, are all elements that have been swooped down upon by those who seek to highlight the negatives – and rightly so. But the determination of the Punjab Police and its leadership to handle the response on its own, despite the presence of better equipped, better protected and better trained teams of central Forces on location, and despite some pressure to deploy these, is commendable. The Director General of Police, Sumedh Singh Saini chose to lead from the front and whatever one may say of the quality of the response of his men, their motivation, their dedication to the task, their courage, and indeed, even the pugnacious attitude of some of the wounded, cannot be denied. This is a tremendous change from the characteristic whining and complaining by most State Police Forces in the wake of a terrorist incident, and the eagerness with which an intervention by central Forces is awaited and accepted.

Despite the visible deficiencies of the response of the Punjab Police, this is the only sustainable model to protect against the depredations of terrorists and extremists of various hues across unpredictable locations across the country. The Army and NSG cannot be everywhere, and cannot be deployed within an acceptable time frame at every new location of terrorist attack. Local authorities cannot, and must not, wait interminably for the Centre to send in appropriately trained or equipped Forces. The local Police, the first responders, must be ready, willing and highly motivated to react immediately and effectively on their own, and must take rightful pride in so responding. Every crisis across India cannot be handled from New Delhi. Decentralization is absolutely necessary, certainly in security matters.

There is tremendous latent danger in our regional environment and across the world today. The threat has been substantially contained within India, but it would be unwise to assume that this will forever remain the case. Police Forces and local intelligence across the country – and including Punjab – have been subjected to a continuous process of deprivation and decay. There must be a concerted effort, now, to strengthen the working of all Police Stations, their fortification, the improvement of personnel profiles and capabilities, technologies, weaponry and processes. This will not only be our most effective response to the challenge of terrorism, it will bring about a comprehensive transformation in the security profile of the country.

Our greatest threats lie in the weakness, the corruption and the degeneration of our own institutions and leaderships. We must, of course, defend against the machinations of our external enemies; but we must protect, even more urgently, against the enemy within.

PAKISTAN
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Compounding Folly
Sanchita Bhattacharya
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

The Supreme Court (SC) of Pakistan on July 22, 2015, observed that the war against terrorism could not be fought without choking funds to terror outfits. The Court expressed grave concern over the Federal Government as well as the Provincial Governments for their failure to compile the baseline data pertaining to sources of funding of local as well as International Non-Governmental Organisations (INGOs) operating in the country.

Though the Apex Court did not directly blame the Pakistani establishment for involvement in funding terror groups, it is widely believed internationally that Islamabad continues with this policy.

During the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) meet at Brisbane in Australia in June 2015, India had strongly raised the issue of non-compliance by Islamabad on freezing assets of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and its affiliates. India pointed out that Muhammad Iqbal, the founding member of Falah-e-Insaniyat Foundation (FIF), one of LeT’s many front organisations, had been put on the list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGT) by the United States in August 2014. Iqbal had made the payment to purchase Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) used by perpetrators of November 26, 2008, (26/11) Mumbai attacks. According to sources, India with the support of allies included the United States (US), managed to derail China's bid, backed by Australia, to shield Pakistan on the issue of terror financing.

Several countries – including Pakistan’s "all weather friend" China; Russia, which in recent times have started moving closer to Pakistan to counter India’s perceived improving relations with the US; and Australia – knowingly or unknowingly fell prey to Pakistani propaganda that it was doing its level best and submitting reports to the Asia Pacific Group (APG), which works in collaboration with FATF. Nevertheless, FATF finally decided in Brisbane, supporting India’s argument, that, though Pakistan was not part of FATF, it was part of APG, and its enforcement of targeted financial sanctions against terrorism should be subject to monitoring by FATF through APG.

Interestingly, on February 27, 2015, during the FATF meeting at Paris, Pakistan's name was put into the category of "Jurisdictions no longer Subject to the FATF's On-Going AML/CFT Compliance Process". This list included seven countries, including Albania, Namibia, Kuwait, Cambodia, Zimbabwe and Nicaragua, apart from Pakistan. Explaining Pakistan’s position, FATF had then observed,
The FATF welcomes Pakistan’s significant progress in improving its AML/CFT [Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism] regime and notes that Pakistan has established the legal and regulatory framework to meet its commitments in its action plan regarding the strategic deficiencies that the FATF had identified in June 2010. Pakistan is therefore no longer subject to the FATF’s monitoring process under its on-going global AML/CFT compliance process. Pakistan will work with APG as it continues to address the full range of AML/CFT issues identified in its mutual evaluation report, in particular, fully implementing UNSC [United Nations Security Council] Resolution 1267.

On October 28, 2011, FATF had expressed its disappointment regarding five countries, including Pakistan, stating:
The FATF is not yet satisfied that the following jurisdictions have made sufficient progress on their action plan agreed upon with the FATF. The most significant action plan items and/or the majority of the action plan items have not been addressed. If these jurisdictions do not take sufficient action to implement significant components of their action plan by February 2012, then the FATF will identify these jurisdictions as being out of compliance with their agreed action plans and will take the additional step of calling upon its members to consider the risks arising from the deficiencies associated with the jurisdiction.

On missing the deadline, Pakistan was blacklisted by FATF on February 16, 2012. Later, in June 2012 FATF had reiterated that laws on counter-terrorism financing and anti-money laundering in Pakistan either did not exist or were ineffective. Further, in October 2012, FATF included Pakistan in its Public Statement, underlining continuing deficiencies in its AML/CTF regime.

Pakistan had first been publicly identified by the FATF in February 2008 for deficiencies in its AML/CTF regime. On February 28, 2008, FATF urged Pakistan to continue its efforts to improve its AML/CFT laws to come into closer compliance with international AML/CFT standards and to work closely with the APG to achieve this.

In response to mounting concern over money laundering, FATF had been established by the G-7 Summit that was held in Paris in 1989.  FATF is a policy‐making body, whose objectives include setting standards to combat money laundering and the financing of terrorism and supporting implementation of these standards. At present FATF has 36 members (including India) along with two observers. APG is something of a mini‐FATF and is committed to the effective implementation and enforcement of standards set by FATF.

Developments at FATF meets in 2015 clearly indicate that the international community, or at least sections thereof, have either failed to understand the Pakistani design or are willingly attempting to underplay Islamabad’s role in international terrorism and its willful failure to apply civilized norms of government and enforcement to curb the menace. This is despite the mounting evidence that nothing has changed on the ground to suggest that Pakistan has stopped the export of terror and the funding of terror groups.

Indeed, as recently as on July 7, 2015, Pakistan's Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan gave a clear indication to the Upper House (Senate) of Pakistan’s Parliament that JuD, the "public face" of LeT, was unlikely to be banned and that, “JuD has been on observation under Section 11 D of the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA) 1997 since 15 November, 2003. The activities of JuD are monitored by law enforcement agencies and if report of any of such activity (having connection with LeT) that fulfils requirement of Section 11 B of ATA was presented, the organisation shall be proscribed.” Section 11 B of ATA 1997 provides for the proscription a terror organisation, while Section 11 D is meant to keep organisations under observation where the Federal Government has reason to believe that an organisation is acting in a manner that suggests it may be linked to terrorism.

Crucially, JuD has been designated a terrorist organisation by the US, UK, the European Union, Russia, Australia and, of course, India. JuD’s 'chief' Saeed, the mastermind of the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai, openly engages in the collecting funds to carry out his ‘charity work’ – and the organisation is widely acknowledged as a front of LeT. Despite international exposure and opprobrium, the Pakistani Government continues to contribute to his various ‘charities’. The Pakistan Muslim League-led Punjab State Government, for instance, has long provided financial support to JuD for its ‘welfare’ activities. A grant-in-aid of PKR 61.35 million was given to the administrator of the group’s training camp Markaz-e-Taiba in the Provincial budget for fiscal year 2013–14. The budget also included an allocation of PKR 350 million for a knowledge park at Muridke – JuD’s headquarters – and various other development initiatives across Punjab.

On March 25, 2015, Indian Minister of State for Home Haribhai Parathibhai Chaudhary informed the Lok Sabha (Lower House of Indian Parliament) that Pakistan, through its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) continued to aid terror activities in India by providing shelter, training, patronage and financial assistance to terrorists.

Meanwhile, Pakistan continues to pump increasing volumes of Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICNs) into India and its neighbourhood in its campaign to provide finances for Islamist terrorists, and to destabilize the Indian Economy. According to a July 2014 report quoting the Intelligence Bureau (IB), Sri Lanka and Maldives have been identified as two new transit destinations for FICN, with Chennai in Tamil Nadu as the point of arrival. An unnamed IB official stated, "Until now, FICN was known to come from Bangladesh and Nepal. The addition of two more neighbours to this list is rather worrying." Moreover, the ISI-run mafia engaged in production of FICN has altered patterns of circulation, increasingly emphasizing lower denomination notes, INR 500 and below, as compared to an overwhelming flow of INR 1,000 notes in the past. According to a report by the Central Economic Intelligence Bureau (CEIB), "Pakistani operators based in Nepal, Bangladesh, Malaysia and Thailand act as recipients of FICN from Pakistan as well as conduits to the distribution channels in India through air and land border."

Under the circumstances, the apparent eagerness of several members of FATF, and of the organisation itself, to let Pakistan off the hook is certainly surprising. In the present and deeply unstable regional and international environment, it would have been expected that the most stringent standards would have been imposed on suspected state sponsors of terrorism – a status that few in the global community could honestly deny to Pakistan.

NEPAL
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Decisive Moment
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On July 20, 2015, at least 62 persons, including three Security Force (SF) personnel, were injured when agitating cadres of Terai-based parties clashed with the Police in several areas of Janakpur, Mahottari, Parsa and Saptari Districts in the Terai region of Nepal.

The protestors also targeted the leaders of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) and Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M). The CPN-UML leader and former Prime Minister (PM) Madhav Kumar Nepal was attacked with chairs and stones by protesting cadres at Gaur municipality in Rautahat District; cadres of Madhesi Morcha, the Mohan Baidya-led Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Baidya) and the Matrika Yadav-led Communist Party of Nepal – Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Matrika) pelted stones at UCPN-M Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda in the Mirchaiya area of Siraha District; protestors also hurled three Petrol bombs targeting the vehicle carrying Finance Minister Ram Sharan Mahat in Suryamati VDC (Village Development Committee) in Nuwakot District on July 20. Apart from these attacks on leaders, protestors also vandalised public properties.

Again on July 21, 2015, 75 persons, including SF personnel, were injured as protestors clashed with SFs in several areas of Bara, Dhanusha, Janakpur, Rupandehi Districts in Terai, and in Makwanpur which shares a border with the Terai.

On the same day, July 21, more than two dozen cadres of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party-Nepal (RPP-N, a conservative national party) including lawmaker Ganesh Thapa, were injured in a clash with Police in Hetauda, the District headquarters of Makwanpur. The clash ensued after a group of cadres, led by RPP-N Chairman Kamal Thapa, forcefully entered into the hall where public feedback collection on the Draft Constitution was under way, and vandalised chairs and the stage, demanding re-establishment of the Hindu state.

On July 22, 2015, RPP-N, enforced a bandh (general shut down) in the Hetauda area in Makwanpur. Daily life was hit hard due to the bandh in Jhapa District as well.

Further, on July 24, 2015, normal life across Nepal was hit hard by the bandh enforced by the Netra Bikram Chand-led Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Chand), protesting against the Constitution drafting process and the Lipu-Lekh agreement, a trade agreement signed by India and China to expand border trade at the Lipu-Lekh Pass – a piece of land in Nepal bordering the two neighboring countries - signed on May 15, 2015. The bandh enforcers had vandalized five vehicles in Kathmandu and three in the Lalitpur District. Police arrested 52 persons, including CPN-Maoist-Chand’s senior leader Tilak Pariyar and Sharad Rasaili, Chairperson of All Nepal National Free Students Union-Revolutionary (ANNFSU-R), the student wing of the CPN-Maoist-Chand, from various parts of Kathmandu. Seven persons were arrested from the Banepa area of Kavre District, which shares a border with the Terai region, as they were organising a ‘torch procession’ on the eve of the bandh.

These recent incidents of violent protests and bandhs followed the July 9, 2015, decision of the four major parties to collect public opinion on the provisions of the draft Constitution. Those opposing the decision – National Madhes Shadbhavana Party (NMSP), Tarai Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP), Sadbhavana Party (SP) and United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF) – have decided to stall the process. Notably, soon after the decision taken by the four major parties on the issue, these groups had threatened severe protests if the major political parties did not pay heed to their principal demand, the inclusion of provisions in the Draft Constitution for Nepal to be federated into 11 provinces as recommended by the State Restructuring Commission formed in 2011, and not into eight as agreed in the 16-point Agreement.

Significantly, violent protests and bandhs continue to haunt Nepal intermittently as the country struggles to resolve the residual tensions of decades of precedent turmoil. At its peak, insurgency-related fatalities in Nepal stood at 4,896 – 3,992 Maoists, 666 SF personnel and 238 civilians – in a single year, 2002. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the country has registered no insurgency-related fatalities since August 24, 2012, when unidentified assailants killed the general secretary of the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF)-affiliated Factory Workers Union (FWU), Rama Shankar Mandal in the Birgunj, area of Parsa District. However, the country has recorded 26 incidents of street violence and bandhs leading to four killings and 174 injuries since then.

Just between February 28, 2015, and March 30, 2015, during an earlier cycle of political turmoil, 83 persons, including 67 cadres of the UCPN-M-led 30-party alliance, 15 Policemen and one minor were injured when sporadic clashes erupted between the agitating activists of the alliance and Police in different parts of the country. The protestors were demanding that political parties reach a consensus on drafting the new Constitution. According to the Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB), the average direct cost of general strikes in Nepal stood at Nepali Rupee (NPR) 1.8 billion per strike day and NPR 27 billion per year, at current prices, over 2008-2013.

Meanwhile, amidst all these violent protests, the Constituent Assembly (CA) concluded the process of collection of feedback on the Draft Constitution on July 21, 2015. The CA had stipulated two days (July 20–July 21) for feedback collection. A total of 33,316 suggestions through various means of communications were collected from 240 electoral constituencies. These included 20,722 suggestions through website; 8,800 by email; 2,471 from toll-free numbers; 1,080 through fax; and 243 through postal service and direct submission at the CA Secretariat. Some notable suggestions which came from the public, include holding of direct elections for key political positions such as President, Prime Minister, lawmakers, and heads of ward committees of municipal or VDC committees; fixing education qualification of executive heads and lawmakers; determining the names and boundaries of the federal units by the CA itself; removing secularism and restoring Nepal as a Hindu State; among others.

The Constitution writing process, incorporating the views collected from the masses, is now approaching completion, and it will be necessary for the CA to resist the pressure that is being exerted by certain groups with vested interests. Indeed, during an interview on June 26, 2015, Prime Minister Koirala had already declared,
There is no reason to doubt the trajectory of new Constitution. It has already entered a process. Every Committee of the Constituent Assembly is working on war footing. There is not a moment to waste. You might consider the Constitution done and dusted. No force can stop it now. There is no time like now to reconstruct the country and take it on the path of development and prosperity. The recent disaster has only added to the urgency. Our commitment is peace, development, democracy and prosperity and there is no better time to institutionalize them.

A time bound approach and an inclusive Constitution incorporating public feedback will certainly help stabilize Nepal and create the conditions to meet the country’s many other challenges. Crucially, according to a World Bank report released on June 16, 2015, quake-hit Nepal needs fund equivalent to one third of its economy to recover from the disaster, which killed nearly 9,000 people in April-May 2015. The Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) prices the damage at USD 5.15 billion, losses at USD 1.9 billion and consequently recovery needs at USD 6.6 billion. Unless the political turmoil is brought to an end, and a final Constitution is established to guide the policies and practices of successor Governments, the urgent requirements of reconstruction and relief cannot be successfully addressed.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
July 20-27, 2015

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Islamist Extremism

0
0
1
1

Left Wing Extremism

0
0
1
1

Total (BANGLADESH)

0
0
2
2

INDIA

 

Assam

1
0
1
2

Jammu and Kashmir

1
0
3
4

Meghalaya

0
0
1
1

Nagaland

0
0
1
1

Punjab

3
4
3
10

Left-Wing Extremism

 

Andhra Pradesh

1
0
0
1

Jharkhand

0
0
1
1

Maharashtra

1
0
0
1

Odisha

0
0
2
2

Total (INDIA)

7
4
12
23

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

5
3
1
9

KP

0
1
4
5

Punjab

1
0
0
1

Sindh

1
0
0
1

PAKISTAN (Total)

7
4
5
16
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH

Gonojagoron Mancha starts sit-in demanding SC to uphold death penalty of Salauddin Quader Chowdhury: Gonojagoron Mancha (People's Resurgence Platform) started sit-in in Dhaka city's Shahbagh on July 24 demanding the Supreme Court (SC) to uphold the death penalty of War Criminal and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) standing committee member Salauddin Quader Chowdhury. Gonojagoron Mancha spokesperson Imran H Sarker said they would gather everyday till July 29 when the SC will deliver its verdict on the appeal of BNP leader challenging the death penalty. Daily Star, July 25, 2015.


INDIA

10 persons including a Superintendent of Police killed in terror attack in Punjab: On July 27, a total of 10 persons, including three civilians, three home guards, Gurdaspur Superintendent of Police (SP, detective) Baljit Singh and three militants were killed in a coordinated terror attack in Gurdaspur District of Punjab, reports The Times of India. Reportedly the militants entered into Pathankot District in Punjab at Paharipur Border outpost from Pakistan, later took bus to Taragarh Morh, and then walked towards Dinanagar in Gurdaspur District. After reaching the place they first killed one civilian, a dhaba owner, then snatched a car and headed towards the Police Station of Dinanagar. While travelling towards the Police Station, they killed one vegetable vendor and sprayed bullets on a passing bus. After reaching the Police Station, they injured SHO Mukhtiar Singh before holing up. Soon, an exchange of fire began between Security Force personnel and the militants. Three home guards and SP Baljit Singh were killed during the operation. The attack ended with SFs killing all the three attackers involved in the twin attack. No terror group has taken responsibility for the attack. Times of India, July 27-28, 2015.

Intelligence intercepts reveal plot to 'avenge' hanging of 1993 Mumbai bomb plotter, Yakub Memon: The security agencies have got a trace of a terror plot being hatched to avenge the death penalty given to 1993 Mumbai blast accused Yakub Memon. Communication intercepts from various terror groups have revealed that a major strike may be carried out during the Independence Day celebrations (August 15, 2015). Memon is slated to be hanged on July 30. Daily Mail, July 24, 2015.

UNLFWESA planning to strike in four North East states: Security Forces operating in Nagaland have revealed that the newly formed United National Liberation Front of Western South East Asia (UNLF-WESA), is planning to carry out major terror strikes in Nagaland, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. According to a statement issued by the Inspector General of Assam Rifles, intelligence inputs gathered over the past few months have confirmed that a number of highly destructive radio-controlled Improvised Explosive Device (IED) have been smuggled into Nagaland. Times of India, July 23, 2015.

NSCN-K has stationed militants in Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh, states Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Kiren Rijiu in Rajya Sabha: Khaplang faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K) has stationed small groups of militants at various strategic locations in Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh, stated Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Kiren Rijiu, on July 22. He also stated, "Most of these groups have sneaked into Indian territory from across the Indo-Myanmar border." Sangai Express, July 23, 2015.

UMHA decides to formulate national strategy to tackle IS: The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), after seeking a report from 10 States, has decided to formulate a 'coherent national strategy' on the Islamic State (IS). The States that sent their reports to the Centre are Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Kerala, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Assam and Tamil Nadu. The Hindu, July 21, 2015.

Government plans crackdown on supply of arms from Myanmar: As part of its multi-pronged strategy to combat insurgency in the North-East, Government of India (GoI) has planned a crackdown on the supply of sophisticated weapons to militant outfits through Myanmar. National Investigation Agency (NIA) has asked state Governments affected by insurgency in the North-East to provide data on the smuggling of weapons. Sources said the exercise is being undertaken to crack the supply base of the easy inflow of weapons to militants from Myanmar, identify couriers and middlemen on the Indian side near border areas. India Today , July 23, 2015.

IS and Afzal Guru's hanging influencing educated Kashmiri youth joining terror, according to UMHA: Union Ministry of Home Affairs has attributed the spurt in educated youth in Kashmir joining terrorist organisations this year to the thrust of the militant organisations on recruiting local youth and the affect of hanging of Parliament attack accused Afzal Guru besides the increasing influence of the IS (Islamic State). As per the UMHA note "mass contact programmes launched by separatist leaders" and the extensive use of social media by anti-India elements also contributed to educated youths taking the path to terror while the perceived "lack of credibility of mainstream political leaders" and absence of employment opportunities are also driving the youth to take to terror activities. Economic Times, July 21, 2015.

All 39 Indians held hostage by IS in Iraq are safe, states Union Minister of State for External Affairs V K Singh: All the 39 Indians held hostage in Mosul town of Iraq by Islamic State (IS) militants over a year ago were "safe", government said on July 22 quoting multiple third party sources and asserted that efforts were on to secure their release. The Indian nationals were taken hostage by the IS on June 11, 2014, in northern Iraq's Mosul town. Union Minister of State for External Affairs V K Singh said government was in "close and regular" contact with relevant Iraqi government authorities to obtain information on their whereabouts and safety. Times of India, July 23, 2015.


NEPAL

Four major political parties for Constitution by August 15: Leaders from four major political forces at a meeting on July 24, decided to complete the task of Constitution making within the next three weeks and promulgate it by August 15. Top leaders from Nepali Congress (NC), Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) and Madhesi People's Rights Forum-Democratic (MPRF-D), decided to meet Constituent Assembly (CA) Chairman Subas Nembang on July 25, and informed him about their latest plan. Republica, July 16, 2015.


PAKISTAN

Thousands of terrorists arrested in operation Zarb-e-Azb, says Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs, Tariq Fatemi: Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs, Tariq Fatemi on July 23 said that thousands of terrorists had been arrested in operation Zarb-e-Azb and they will be brought to justice soon. In his address at Heritage Foundation, Fatemi said, "Over 190,000 Pakistan military personnel are taking part in Zarb-e-Azb, launched 13 months ago." Pakistan has cleared Shawal area near Pak-Afghan border, he maintained. The News, July 24, 2015.

PTI chief Imran Khan still backs talks with TTP: The Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) chief Imran Khan on July 22 again reiterated his stance that negotiations with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) should be initiated. "If America can negotiate with the Afghan Taliban, Pakistan and Afghanistan should also negotiate with them (Taliban)," said Imran. Dawn, July 24, 2015.

Without choking funding, war on terror can't be fought, says Supreme Court: The Supreme Court on July 22 observed that the war against terrorism could not be fought without choking funds to terror outfits. The Supreme Court expressed dissatisfaction at the Federal Government's report showing a lack of progress on the establishment of the Joint Investigation Directorate (JID) at the National Counter-Terrorism Authority (NACTA), the most important organisation tasked to implement the National Action Plan to deal with the menace of terrorism. The News, July 23, 2015.


SRI LANKA

Sri Lankan Army says it has only 'limited' role in Northern Province: The Sri Lankan Army on July 23 said that its involvement in the Northern Province is limited "only to demining, construction works and infrastructure development in connection with the resettlement of people". Responding to a questionnaire sent by The Hindu last month on the status of the Army's presence in the Northern and Eastern Provinces, it said: "We have almost totally disengaged [ourselves] from non-military activities." The Hindu, July 25, 2015.

LTTE was always an obstacle to reach a peaceful solution to the national issue, says Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera: Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera said that the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) was always an obstacle to reach a peaceful solution to the national issue. Samaraweera said that the terrorism the LTTE unleashed, even against the Tamil people, resulted in the Tigers being proscribed in many countries. He said the solution to the national question is not a separate state as the LTTE mistakenly believed, but a solution which can address the genuine grievances of the Tamil people within a united and undivided Sri Lanka. Colombo Gazette, July 24, 2015.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

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Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


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