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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 41, April 11, 2016

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

INDIA
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LWE: Reverses & Resistance
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

On April 5, 2016, three villagers were killed by Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres in two separate incidents in the Bastar region of Chhattisgarh. As per preliminary information, three villagers from the Kudur area in Kondagaon District were abducted by the Maoists on April 4, and two others were abducted on April 5, from the same area. Subsequently, the Maoists held a Jan Adalat (kangaroo court) around 15 kilometers from Kudur in the Tilam-Becha area, which falls in Narayanpur District. There two of the abducted civilians were "brutally beaten to death", while the rest three were released by the ultras. In a separate incident, a villager was killed by the Maoists in Kanker District allegedly for refusing to support them. The victim was "brutally beaten with sticks to death by rebels at his native place Kadgaon" subsequent to his abduction.

On March 30, 2016, seven personnel of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) were killed in the Dantewada District of Chhattisgarh in a Maoist-triggered landmine explosion. The incident happened when a vehicle carrying the CRPF personnel belonging to the Ghusaras CRPF camp in Dantewada were returning after leave for Holi (the Hindu festival of colors). Three troopers were also injured in the explosion.

On March 29, 2016, three CPI-Maoist cadres were killed in an encounter with Security Force (SF) personnel in the Narayanpur District of Chhattisgarh. A statement by Inspector General of Police (IGP), Bastar Range, S. R. P. Kalluri disclosed,
At around 9.30am, when the parties were searching their target areas in Sulenga Tirkanar Forest under Dhaurai Police Station limits, the Maoists opened heavy firing on them. Our men took a position and retaliated with heavy fire and forced the Maoists to flee from the spot... Three dead bodies of uniformed Maoists were found after searching the area.

According to partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM), at least 143 persons, including 42 civilians, 27 SFs personnel and 74 Naxalites (Left Wing Extremists, LWE), have been killed in LWE-related violence across India in 2016 thus far (data till April 10, 2016). Though Chhattisgarh has recorded the maximum number of 76 fatalities, other States have also accounted for several killings, including Jharkhand (30), Odisha (16), Bihar (8), Maharashtra (7), and Andhra Pradesh (6). During the corresponding period of 2015, the number of such fatalities had stood at 67, including 25 civilians, 21 SFs personnel and 21 LWEs. Clearly, there has been a quantum jump in fatalities in all categories, giving cause for serious concern

This is more worrying because the adverse trend now visible contrasts with the declining trend of violence that has been recorded in Maoist-affected regions across India over the past several years.

According to the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), the number of Maoist-linked fatalities stood at 315 in 2015, including 168 civilians, 58 SF personnel and 89 Naxalites. Chhattisgarh recorded the highest number of fatalities, 145; followed by Jharkhand, 79; Odisha, 38; Maharashtra, 20; Bihar, 19; Andhra Pradesh, 10; and Telangana, 4. In 2014, 373 fatalities, including 222 civilians, 88 SF personnel and 63 LWEs, were recorded. Since 2011, on year on year basis, LWE-linked fatalities had been constantly declining, with an aberration in 2013. [In 2012, 489 fatalities were recorded, increasing marginally to 497 in 2013. The increase was primarily because fatalities among Naxalites had jumped from 74 in 2012 to 100 in 2013, civilian and SF fatalities recorded a decline.] According to UMHA data available since 1999, year 2015 recorded the lowest number of LWE-related fatalities across India. The previous lowest was 373 recorded in 2014. The number of civilians and SF personnel killed in 2015 was also the lowest registered since 1999. The lowest numbers of LWEs were killed in 2014. At the peak of LWE violence, 1,177 persons, including 720 civilians, 285 SF personnel and 172 Naxalites were killed in 2010.

Year 2015 also saw the lowest number of LWE-related incidents since 1999, at 1,088; as against 1,091 in 2014, the previous lowest. The declining trend in this category was established in 2010. Other parameters of LWE violence also registered significant declines. For instance, the number of attacks on Police (including landmines) decreased from 155 in 2014 to 118 in 2015. Similarly, the total number of arms snatched declined from 58 in 2014 to 18 in 2015. The number of arms training camps held by LWEs reduced from 34 in 2014 to 18 in 2015. More significantly, the number of kangaroo courts, an index of LWE strength in a particular area, declined from 54 in 2014, to 40 in 2015. In 2011, LWEs held 97 such 'Courts'.

The area of LWE influence also continued to shrink further. The number of LWE-affected Districts in 2015 stood at 106 in 10 States, down from 161 Districts in 16 States in 2014. In 2015, Bihar accounted for the maximum number of affected Districts, at 22; followed by Jharkhand, 21; Odisha, 19; Chhattisgarh, 16; Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, 8 each; Maharashtra and West Bengal, 4 each; and Madhya Pradesh, 1. The maximum numbers of Districts, 232, were declared Maoist-affected in 2007. There has been a constant decline in the number of Districts affected by Naxalite violence since then, with an exception in 2011, when the number increased to 203 Districts in 20 States, from 196 in 20 States recorded in 2010.

Moreover, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) fatalities were reported from 39 Districts in seven States in 2015, as against 40 Districts in eight states in 2014. Fatalities have already been recorded from 29 Districts in six States in 2016. 

The decline registered in LWE violence is due to several factors, the primary among which has been successful intelligence-based operations launched by SFs over the past years, which have helped them neutralize top cadres among the rebels. According to the SATP database, between 2010 and 2016, at least 667 leadership elements of the Maoists have been neutralized (82 killed, 383 arrested, 202 surrendered). According to UMHA data, the total number of LWE cadres arrested between 2010 and 2015 stands at 11,608. During the same period at least 633 LWE cadres surrendered. Significantly, the Government informed the Parliament on July 30, 2014, “As per available reports, the estimated armed cadre strength of the Left Wing Extremist groups is around 8,500. However, their support base is in larger number.”

The Central Government, in the meantime, declared a ‘four pronged strategy’ to fight against the LWE menace, including security related interventions, development related interventions, ensuring rights and entitlements of forest dwellers and better public perception management. While this does not diverge significantly from the multiplicity of ‘multi-pronged’ approaches announced from time to time by regimes in the past, UMHA has now claimed the implementation of the Construction/Strengthening of fortified Police Stations (PSs) scheme for construction/strengthening of 400 Police Stations in 10 LWE affected States at INR two million per Police Station on a funding pattern of 80 (Central share) : 20 (State share) basis. 284 PSs have been completed thus far. In an effort to improve the communication network in LWE-affected areas, the Department of Telecom has been implementing the Construction of Mobile Towers Scheme for construction of 2,199 mobile towers in 10 LWE affected States, of which 1,424 mobile towers have been put on air up to February 2, 2016. The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH), under the Road Requirement Plan–I (RRP-I), that has been under implementation since February 2009 for improving road connectivity in the 34 worst LWE-affected Districts in eight States, has constructed 3,904 kilometers of  roads (till January 31, 2016). A total of 5,422 kilometers of road are to be constructed under this plan. Moreover, respective State Governments – Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Odisha, Telangana – have also taken several steps to counter the LWE threat.

Despite the pressure they are under, LWEs continue to resist. Not surprisingly, according to the annual report of UMHA for 2015-16, submitted to the Parliament in March 2016, "Left Wing Extremism (LWE) remains an area of concern for internal security of the country. CPI (Maoist) continues to be the most potent among the various LWE outfits in the country and accounts for more than 80 per cent of total LWE violence incidents and resultant deaths." The recent surge substantiates the UMHA's concern.

If the dramatic security gains of the past years are to be consolidated, respective State Governments will have to further intensify counter-Naxalite operations with the support of the Central Government. New Delhi, in the meantime, would need to work towards forging a unity of operations and perspectives among these respective States, to ensure coordination and, indeed, synergy among them and between the Forces operating in the affected States. An efforts of revival by the Maoists will need to be contained to ensure that the recent declines in Maoist activities are not merely a tactical retreat, as the Maoists claim, but a permanent setback that will gradually be compounded into the irreversible defeat of this enduring movement of violence.

NEPAL
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Troubles Persist
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On April 6, 2016, United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF) cadres protested the visit of Minister of Forest and Soil Conservation, Agni Prasad Sapkota, greeting him with black flags in the Rautahat District. Ram Niwas Yadav, District Coordinator of UDMF, observed, “We have restricted the Ministers or any other Government officials from visiting the District. But, Sapkota’s visit sparked tension; so we protested.” The agitation by UDMF – comprising the Upendra Yadav-led Federal Socialist Forum-Nepal (FSF-N), the Mahantha Thakur-led Tarai Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP), the Rajendra Mahato-led Sadbhawana Party (SP) and the Mahendra Raya Yadav-led Tarai Madhes Sadbhawana Party (TMSP) began – commenced on July 1, 2015, when they burnt copies of the preliminary draft of the Constitution in capital Kathmandu, as it failed to incorporate their demands. The Madhesi protestors are the demanding redrawing of the boundaries of Provinces in the Himalayan nation as proposed in the new Constitution, and the restoration of rights granted to Madhesis in the Interim Constitution of 2007 which, they claim, the new Constitution has snatched away.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 44 persons, including 25 civilians and 19 Security Force (SF) personnel, were killed and another 229, including 166 civilians and 63 SF personnel, were injured in violent protests across the Terai region during the first round of violence, between July 1 and September 19, 2015. In Surhket District, adjoining the Terai region, another two civilians were killed and 50 were injured. Further, violence continued subsequent to the adoption of the new Constitution on September 20, 2015, with 13 civilians and one SF trooper killed and another 448 persons, including 344 civilians and 104 SF personnel, injured in violent protests across the Tarai region, according to SATP data. In adjoining Districts, one civilian was killed in Udayapur and another was injured in Dhading District (all data till April 10, 2016).

Meanwhile, to mount pressure on the Government to address their demands at the earliest, as many as 100 cadres of UDMF started a blockade at Dasgaja on the Indo-Nepal border, near Birgunj town in Parsa District, on September 24, 2015. However, keeping in mind country’s problems, people’s needs and their suggestions, UDMF decided to lift the border blockade on February 8, 2016, and put off its general strike to allow Government offices to function for the time being. However, UDMF stated in its release, “Our agitation will continue till our demands are met. No matter what the circumstances are, we will not backtrack from our struggle.” The violent protests, however, came to an end.

Estimating the economic losses of the Terai turmoil and subsequent economic blockade, the Federation of the Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI), Nepal's apex business body, claimed on January 12, 2016, that the Madhesi protests resulted in a huge revenue loss to the country amounting to an estimated NR two billion daily over the preceding five months, and that more than 400,000 Nepalis lost their jobs and 2,200 manufacturing units stopped operations.

Meanwhile, on February 17, 2016, the task forces of the three major political parties – the Nepali Congress (NC), Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) and Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) – and the agitating UDMF discussed the Terms of Reference (ToR) of the political mechanism to be formed to revise provincial boundaries, but failed to reach an agreement. The UDMF taskforce members put forth their views on the UDMF’s 11-point demand and sought a package deal. However, members of the taskforce of the major parties were concerned only with forming a political mechanism. Finally, on February 18, 2016, UDMF rejected the political mechanism formed under Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Kamal Thapa to revise provincial boundaries, arguing that the newly formed mechanism would not be able to address the demands of the agitating parties.

Later, on March 11, 2016, the agitating UDMF held talks with Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli and submitted a seven-point memorandum to the Prime Minister urging the Government to address their 11-point demands before mid-April. In the four-page memorandum, the front also demanded the delineation of constituencies on the basis of population and the retention of the proportions of the mixed election system ensured in the Interim Constitution. At the end of the meeting, the Prime Minister formed the political committee under the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Kamal Thapa to find a solution to the issues of provincial boundaries.

Nevertheless, to escalate pressure, the agitating Madhesi parties decided on March 15, 2016, to launch fresh protests from the second week of April if their demands are not addressed by then. Further, the Federal Alliance, comprising UDMF and 15 other political parties, organized a protest rally in Kathmandu on March 19, 2016, demanding amendments to the Constitution to address the concerns of Madhesis, Janajatis and other ‘marginalized communities’. In a Press Release on March 21, 2016, the Alliance urged the public to prepare for a “decisive joint people’s movement”, declaring that it would continue to fight for identity-based federalism no matter how difficult and how long the battle was. The Alliance also declared that the First Amendment to the Constitution addressed none of the vital issues related to identity-based federalism, autonomous provinces and multi-language policy, the Upper House of the Parliament, federal judiciary, local bodies, and multi-nationalities – concerns the Alliance had articulated. On January 23, 2016, Parliament voted to amend the country's new Constitution after its promulgation four months earlier, to ensure higher representation in Government bodies on the basis of proportional inclusion of the Madhesis and other marginalized communities. However, the lawmakers of agitating Madhesi parties boycotted the voting, arguing that the amendment failed to address their core demand of fresh demarcation of provincial boundaries. Madhesi lawmaker Sarbendra Nath Sukla declared, “This amendment fails to fulfill our demands. Our agitation will go on.”

A series of such warnings followed. Ashok Kumar Rai, Parliamentary Party leader of FSF-N, stated on April 7, 2016, that launching another movement had become a compulsion for UDMF as the Government had been indifferent to the Front’s demands. He noted that senior leaders would complete the campaign by mid-April, when the ultimatum served to the Government to address UDMF’s demands would end.

Meanwhile, Minister for Home Affairs Shakti Basnet, while speaking at a Press Conference organized by the Federation of Revolutionary Journalists at Bharatpur Airport in Chitwan District on April 3, 2016, argued, “Most of the demands of Madhes-based parties have already been addressed by amending the Constitution. Rest of the demands will be addressed through the political mechanism.”

Further, on March 30, 2016, Prime Minister Oli assured the nation that there would not be any kind of border blockade and obstruction in free transportation, as the Government would not tolerate such activities, and remarked, “The Government will move ahead in accordance with the law. The Government cannot just look at Nepali people suffering because of someone’s whim.” Further, on April 5, 2016, the Prime Minister added that the Government had learnt a serious lesson from the five-month blockade and was now committed to further diversification of Nepal’s transit and trade options.

Underscoring the need for unity among parties for effective implementation of the newly promulgated Constitution, Law Minister Agni Kharel observed, on March 29, 2016, “As the statute is the common achievement of all the people and the parties, unity and cooperation among them is a must for its proper implementation. The main opposition Nepali Congress must join the Government to ensure the effective execution of the statute.”

However, NC General Secretary Krishna Prasad Sitaula on April 6, 2016, stressed that NC would not join the incumbent Government in the present context. Sitaula nevertheless stated that his party would remain involved in the resolution of the Madhes agitation, implementation of the new Constitution and economic prosperity of the country. Earlier, arguing that the current Government had itself become a hindrance to the implementation of the country's new Constitution, NC central leader Bimalendra Nidhi asserted, on April 1, 2016, "The Government has failed completely to implement the Constitution, address the issues of Madhes and execute post-quake reconstruction works."

The promulgation of the new Constitution on September 20, 2015, was no doubt a historic step forward, but certain shortcomings clearly remain. With the Madhesi groups threatening a revival of their disruptive agitation and blockade, it is imperative that the main political parties end their blame games and unite to address the residual grievances and reservations of various political formations.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
April 4-10, 2016

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Islamist Terrorism

1
0
2
3

Left-wing Extremism

0
0
2
2

Total (BANGLADESH)

1
0
4
5

INDIA

 

Assam

3
1
1
5

Jammu and Kashmir

0
0
4
4

Meghalaya

2
0
0
2

Nagaland

1
0
0
1

Left-Wing Extremism

 

Chhattisgarh

3
1
0
4

Jharkhand

1
0
0
1

Odisha

1
0
0
1

Total (INDIA)

11
2
5
18

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

2
1
49
52

FATA

0
0
18
18

KP

4
2
0
6

Punjab

0
0
10
10

Sindh

6
0
6
12

Total (PAKISTAN)

12
3
83
98
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


INDIA

JeM 'chief' Maulana Masood Azhar was a handler of Pathankot attackers, India told to UN: India told the United Nations (UN) that Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) 'chief' Maulana Masood Azhar was one of the handlers of the terrorists who attacked the Pathankot airbase (January 2, 2016) and his outfit received arms training from Taliban. In its failed bid to have Masood designated as terrorist by the UN, India has conveyed to the world body that he and his terrorist group JeM have continuously engineered terror attacks against India, the latest instance being the strike on Pathankot airbase. Hindustan Times, April 6, 2016.

JeM 'chief' Masood Azhar conducted recruitment drive in UK, reveals BBC: Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) 'chief' Maulana Masood Azhar was allowed to preach extremist ideology at several British mosques during a month-long visit to United Kingdom (UK) in 1993 on the invitation of Islamist scholars when young Muslims were asked to seek weapons training at terrorist camps in Pakistan, said British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC). According the investigation, senior representatives of the Deobandi sect that controls nearly half of Britain's 1,600 mosques, hosted Azhar during the visit in which hundreds of young Muslims were urged to seek weapons training at terrorist camps in Pakistan. Times of India, April 6, 2016.

India plans 5-layer 'lock' at Pakistan border, says report: The Centre has okayed a five-layer elaborate plan to completely stop infiltration on the 2,900-kilometres western border with Pakistan. It entails round-the-clock surveillance through sophisticated technology which in effect will totally "lock" India's western border to prevent terror attacks and smuggling. CCTV cameras, thermal image and night-vision devices, battlefield surveillance radar, underground monitoring sensors and laser barriers will be placed along the border to track all movement from the other side. The integrated set-up will ensure that if one device doesn't work, another will alert the control room in case of a transgression, officials said. Times of India, April 11, 2016.


NEPAL

UDMF, Federal Alliance, INNM and some other outfits agree to launch nation-wide movement under single banner: A meeting of the United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF), Federal Alliance, Indigenous Nationalities National Movement (INNM) and some other outfits championing the cause of Janajatis held a meeting in Kathmandu on April 9 and agreed to launch a nation-wide movement under single banner in order to force the major forces to ensure rights of Madhesis, Janajatis and other marginalized communities. Rajkishor Yadav, Chairman of Madhesi Janadhikar Forum-Republican (MJF-R), a constituent of the UDMF said the Madhesi and Janajati forces agreed that there was no alternative to movement for the Government remained indifferent to their demands. Himalayan Times, April 10, 2016.


PAKISTAN

49 militants and two civilians among 52 persons killed during the week in Balochistan: Security Forces (SFs) on April 9 claimed to have killed 34 suspected militants, including a key 'commander', in the Kalat District. One security force official was killed while two others sustained injuries during the exchange of fire.

SFs claimed to have killed 15 militants during a raid in the Johan area of Kalat District on April 6. Daily Times , Dawn , The News , Tribune, April 6-11, 2016.

JuD runs parallel Sharia'h court in Punjab, says report: The Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) founder and Jama'at-ud-Dawa (JuD) 'chief' Hafiz Muhammad Saeed has set up a Sharia'h (Islamic law) court in Lahore, capital of Punjab Province, to dispense "speedy justice", taking up citizens' complaints and issuing summons carrying a warning of strict action in case of non-compliance. The JuD claimed the court only offers arbitration and resolves disputes in accordance with the Islamic judicial system, but failed to justify the summons. This is the first such parallel judicial system in Punjab province. Dawn, April 8, 2016.


SRI LANKA

LTTE will never raise its head again in North without its slain leader V. Prabhakaran, says Chairman of Northern Province Council Secretariat Kandiya Sivagnanam: Chairman of Northern Province Council Secretariat Kandiya Sivagnanam said that the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) will never raise its head again in the North without its slain leader V. Prabhakaran. He said the LTTE's struggle was waged according to one individual's opinion and with his death there is no one to resurrect the terrorist organization although there are LTTE members in other countries. But it is not possible to organize another armed conflict in an environment without the guidance of the slain leader. Colombo Page, April 7, 2016.

Government has taken measures not to allow any room to form extremist Muslim organizations in the country, says Minister of Law and Order Sagala Ratnayake: Minister of Law and Order Sagala Ratnayake told the Parliament on April 5 that the Government has taken measures not to allow any room to form extremist Muslim organizations in the country. According to the Minister, creating a religious dialogue and awareness with the coordination of Muslim politicians, religious leaders, Ministry of Education, Department of Muslim Religious and Cultural Affairs and civil organizations such as All Ceylon Jamiyathul Ulma (ACJU) and National Shoora Council are the key measures the Government has taken in order to dissuade the Muslim community from joining in extremist activities. Colombo Page, April 6, 2016.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

Publisher
K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


A Project of the
Institute For Conflict Management



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