SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 8, August 24, 2015

PAKISTAN

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Karachi: Uncertain Gains
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On August 10, 2015, Pakistan Rangers in Sindh stated that the first stage of the ongoing ‘targeted action’ in Karachi, the provincial capital, had been completed. On September 4, 2013, the Federal Cabinet had empowered the Rangers to lead the ‘targeted action’ with the support of the Police, against criminals involved in the “four heinous crimes of target-killing, kidnapping, extortion and terrorism”. The Federal Minister of Interior Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, laying emphasis that this was to be a ‘targeted action’ or ‘exercise’, rather than an operation, had announced that a committee headed by the provincial Chief Minister Syed Qim Ali Shah would “manage, administer and control” the action.   

The August 10, 2015, statement by the Rangers did not provide any data related to the ‘targeted action’. An earlier July 8, 2015, release, however, claimed that, since the launch of the ‘targeted action’ on September 5, 2013, the Rangers had carried out 5,795 operations during which they had apprehended 10,353 suspects and recovered 7,312 weapons and 348,978 rounds of ammunition. The Rangers also traded fire with suspected criminals, engaging in a total of 224 ‘encounters’, in which 364 suspected criminals were killed and another 213 were arrested. The Rangers had also arrested 82 abductors and in the process secured the release of 49 abducted persons from their captivity. In addition, a total of 826 terrorists, 334 ‘target killers’, and 296 extortionists were arrested during this period.

These actions, according to the Rangers’ release, led to an improvement in the security environment in the city. Incidents of bank robberies, which had become a menace in the city, had fallen from 29 cases in 2013 to 19 in 2014, and seven in 2015. Similarly, regarding extortion, the report claimed that 1,524 cases were reported in 2013 as compared to 899 cases in 2014 and 249, thus far, in 2015.

Further, according to a report compiled by the Sindh Police and submitted to the Provincial Home Department on July 21, 2015, 971 people were murdered in the first half of 2015, as compared to 2,075 people in the corresponding period of 2014, a decline of 53.2 per cent. The report also claimed that, since January 2015, some 479 suspects, including 133 allegedly associated with al Qaeda and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), were killed in ‘police actions’. Of these, 98 belonged to TTP, 11 to al Qaeda, six to the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) and one to Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP).

Partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM) confirmed that terrorism-related fatalities in the city had decreased considerably. In the period since the start of the ‘targeted action’ on September 5, 2013, Karachi recorded 2,143 terrorism and target killing related fatalities, including 1,260 civilians, 675 terrorists/criminals and 208 Security Force (SF) personnel (data till August 23, 2015). During the corresponding period prior to the start of the action, there were 3,099 fatalities including 2514 civilians, 234 terrorists/criminals and 251 SF personnel. However, major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) which are also an indicator of the security environment, more than doubled. As compared to 140 major incidents recorded in the period of ‘targeted action’, there were 66 such incidents during the corresponding period prior to the launch of ‘exercise’. However, the majority of such major incidents in the ‘targeted action’ period involved the killing of terrorists/criminals by SFs.

Nevertheless, the situation in Karachi remains grave, with more than one civilian fatality per day. According to partial ICM data, a total of 282 civilians were killed in the first 235 days of the current year. If total fatalities, including civilians, SFs and terrorist/criminals are taken into consideration, daily fatalities stand at 2.38 (541 fatalities in 235 days). Indeed, Sindh Police data reflects a more alarming situation, indicating that analysis of the first six months “shows that average murders reported in 2015 are 2.7 per day as compared to 5.7 murders per day in 2014 [for the same period]”.

Recent incidents reflect how insecure the city remains. On August 12, 2015, armed assailants shot dead four Police personnel in an ambush within the precincts of Korangi Zaman Town Police Station in Karachi. One passerby also sustained injuries in indiscriminate fire by the militants. On July 8, 2015, three unidentified bullet riddled bodies of men aged between 25 years and 30 years were found from Al-Noor Society in Surjani Town area of Gadap Town.

Serious concerns are being voiced regarding the ‘targeted action’, including widespread allegations of indiscriminate and extrajudicial executions, sweeping human rights’ violations, and political executions. Zohra Yusuf, the Chairperson of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP), on November 20, 2014, observed, “We consider every suspect’s killing in police shootout as extrajudicial as one always remains doubtful about the authenticity of that action. It’s so unfortunate that our system is battling against the criminals or suspects on the same conventional methodology.” She also referred to a “number of complaints” received by HRCP from families of people who went missing; many of them were later found shot dead in different parts of the city or declared killed in encounters.

Significantly, questions have also been raised about the abuse of the ‘targeted action’ against political rivals. Thus, lawmakers from Pakistan's fourth-largest party, the opposition Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), on August 12, 2015, resigned from Parliament and the Sindh Assembly in protest over the crackdown allegedly targeting party supporters in Karachi. The decision applied to 24 Members of the National Assembly (Lower House of Parliament), eight senators in the Senate (Upper House of Parliament), as well as 51 members in the Sindh Provincial Assembly, drawn from MQM. MQM was in alliance with Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) in the Sindh Government. While PPP, with 92 seats, retains a majority in the 168 seat Assembly, the withdrawal of 51 MQM legislators will make it much less representative.

However, Jahangir Mirza, former Inspector General of Police (IGP), Sindh, who held the office from January 2, 2006, to April 14, 2007, argued, “Nobody can defend extrajudicial killings… [But] in a condition where the criminal justice system is not delivering and criminals have the protection of (political) parties, what does one expect from the police?” He asserted that extrajudicial killings can never be addressed until the criminal justice system is reformed and policemen associated with action against criminals are not threatened or victimized in case of a change of guard in the corridors of power.

Moreover, the continued presence of multiple terrorist groups, in addition to a substantial TTP presence, is worrisome. Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), al Qaeda’s South Asia chapter, has emerged as a new threat. Indeed, on September 14, 2014, AQIS claimed responsibility for the September 6, 2014, attack on the West Wharf Naval dockyard in Karachi that left a sailor and three attackers dead. More worryingly AQIS disclosed that the attack was carried out entirely by serving Navy personnel. On September 14, 2014, authorities arrested three Navy officials involved in an attack from the Lak Pass area of Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan. Recently, five AQIS militants, including its Karachi 'chief' Noor-ul-Hasan alias Hashim alias Bhai Jan alias Babu Bhai and his 'deputy, Usman alias Irfan alias Abdullah, and another cadre, Ibrahim alias Rafiq alias Awais, were killed in an encounter in the Khairabad area of Orangi Town on April 14, 2015.

The abrupt emergence of Islamic State (IS, formerly Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham, ISIS) in Karachi has set off alarm in the city. The Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) of the Sindh Police had found the involvement of the group in the murder of prominent Pakistani women’s rights activist Sabeen Mahmud on April 24, 2015, in Karachi. Further, IS had claimed responsibility for the May 13, 2015, Safoora Goth carnage in the Gulshan Town area of Karachi, that killed 45 Ismaili Shias travelling in a chartered bus. The attackers left an IS pamphlet at the incident site before fleeing on motorcycles. Earlier, a woman, identified as Debra Lobo, a US national and the Vice-Principal of the Jinnah Medical and Dental College’s student affairs wing, was shot at and injured on Shaheed-e-Millat Road in Jamshed Town on April 16, 2015. According to Police sources, leaflets of IS claiming responsibility for the attack were found at the incident site.

While claiming on August 10, 2015, that the first stage of the ongoing ‘targeted action’ in Karachi, had been completed, the Pakistan Rangers added,

[We] are well prepared to start Stage 2 from Aug 14th 2015 till the time it is successfully completed. Stage 2 will be more severe than Stage 1 as the main task is to hunt down Land Grabbers, Target Killers, Extortionists, Kidnappers, Terrorists to Justice. Pak Rangers Sindh is committed not to spare any criminal. If you have information or if you are a victim yourself than please do not hesitate to contact Pakistan Rangers Sindh through email or telephone numbers. Do not worry even if the criminals are very powerful because Pakistan Rangers Sindh are more powerful by the will of Allah. Credentials of the complainant will be kept highly confidential.

The first stage of the ‘targeted action’ has clearly impacted on the will and capacity of the terrorist-criminal nexus in Karachi, which had flourished for years under political protection. It has, however, also raised serious questions, not only of legitimacy and justice, but also of sustainability, as new actors with wider networks and a deeper agenda of state destabilization enter the beleaguered city to fill up the vacuum. With state legitimacy at an extraordinary low across Pakistan, the eventual outcome of brutal and often extralegal and indiscriminate state action remains entirely unpredictable.

SRI LANKA

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Decisive Moment
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

Following a historic agreement on August 20, 2015, between the United National Party (UNP) and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), the incumbent Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe on August 21, 2015, took oath as the 26^th Prime Minister (PM) of the island nation. Wickremesinghe was sworn in as the PM for the fourth time [having served earlier tenures between May 17, 1993, and August 19, 1994; December 9, 2001, and April 2, 2004; and January 9, 2015, and August 20, 2015]. Later in the day, the MoU was signed by the two parties. UNP and SLFP are the two major political forces in Sri Lanka, with a long history of bitter rivalry, and who engaged fiercely in the latest round of Parliamentary Elections on August 17, 2015.

The MoU is valid for two years, can be extended further with the consent of the two parties, and defines the process of formation of a National Government. In a nation seeking a final resolution to decades of ethnic strife, the formation of such a Government had remained a long standing demand across the political spectrum, more prominently since the decisive defeat in May 2009, of the protracted Tamil armed insurgency led by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).

In the latest Parliamentary Elections, voters had given a fractured mandate, with none of the parties securing a simple majority. UNP, led by Wickremesinghe, secured 106 seats [93 ‘District-basis’ seats + 13 'National-basis seats'], falling seven short of simple majority in a 225-memebr House; the SLFP could get only 95 seats [83 ‘District-basis’ seats + 12 'National-basis seats']. The main Tamil political party, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) which contests election in the name of Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK), as the TNA itself is not a registered political party, won 16 seats [14 ‘District-basis seats’ + 2 'National-basis seats']. The main Marxist party, Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP, People's Liberation Front) won six seats [4 ‘District-basis seats’ + 2 'National-basis seats']. The Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and the Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP) got one ‘District-basis seat’ each. [The District-basis seats are those for which direct elections are held. There are 29 'National-level seats', which according to the 15th Amendment to the Constitution, which introduced Article 99A, that are decided on the basis of the total number of votes polled by the respective political parties or independent groups at the national level.]

The split verdict put the political class in a quandary and forced them to seek a compromise. Significantly, SLFP has virtually split into two factions – one led by incumbent President Maithripala Sirisena and another led by former President Mahinda Rajapaksa. It was during the January 2015 Presidential Elections that Sirisena revolted against his political master, then incumbent President Rajapaksa, who was also the head of SLFP. Though Sirisena was thrown out of the party, he contested a successful election against Rajapaksa as a 'common candidate'. Subsequent to his loss, Rajapaksa resigned as the head of SLFP and was succeeded by Sirisena. The latter, however, failed to establish full authority over the party. This became apparent when Rajapaksa successfully contested the Parliamentary Elections as the 'Prime Ministerial candidate' of the SLFP despite Sirisena's direct opposition. Sirisena conceded later that he had allowed Rajapaksa to contest because he feared a split within the party though, under immense subsequent pressure, he also made the rather impractical declaration that he would not appoint Rajapaksa even if SLFP was to win the elections. Reports indicate that most of SLFP’s new Members of Parliament (MPs) are Rajapaksa supporters. The success of the MoU, consequently, will depend overwhelmingly on the role Rajapaksa chooses to play over the coming months.

It remains to be seen how long Rajapaksa remains away from the political centre stage as the National Government works towards reconciliation on the ethnic issue. It was, in fact, Rajapaksa who initiated this process after he defeated the LTTE amidst overwhelming international pressure. In case Rajapaksa chooses to create political instability in an effort to secure control of the Government after a hiatus, new challenges will confront both President Sirisena and PM Wickremesinghe. Interestingly, one of the most important features of the 10-point MoU is that it disallows the crossing over of MPs from one party to another.   

These elections are also an endorsement of the reality that the peace which returned to the island nation in May 2009 will endure. Indeed, Inspector General of Police N.K. Ilangakoon noted on August 18, 2015, the day after the elections, “Since 2012, there have been 11 elections including nine Provincial Council elections, one Presidential election and the one which just concluded. The General Election 2015 was the most peaceful of all. This election was a turning point. We created the message that we can hold an election without violence, and we should continue this trend in the future." Furthering the argument, the Centre for Monitoring Election Violence (CMEV), an independent and non-partisan organization, noted that between June 26, 2015 midnight, when the elections were notified, and August 14, 2015, when the campaigning officially ended, it registered 143 'Major Incidents', 17 per cent of the total incidents reported to it. The percentage of 'Major Incidents' had stood at 45 per cent, 56 per cent and 54 per cent in the 2010 Presidential and General Election campaigns and the 2015 Presidential Election campaign, respectively. [The list of ‘Major incidents’ includes murder, injuries, assaults, threat and intimidation, misuse of state resources, robbery, arson, abduction, damage to property, etc].

In a crucial development, voters in Tamil dominated Northern Sri Lanka defeated all those who were the ardent supporters of the now defeated-LTTE. Significantly, the Crusaders for Democracy (CFD), a party of ex-LTTE cadres which even fielded one of the bodyguards of slain LTTE 'chief' Velupillai Prabhakaran, reportedly secured just 0.6 per cent of the vote and no seats. Similarly, parties aiming to resurrect the 'ideas' of LTTE were also shown the door. The Akila Ilankai Tamil Congress (AITC), which wanted “full self-determination” for the Tamils as the LTTE did, according to reports, garnered five per cent of the vote and no seats as well.

In a more open endorsement of the defeat of LTTE's 'ideas', the TNA, which had rejected the demands of ex-LTTE cadres to contest as TNA candidates, won nine out of 13 seats in the Northern Province. The TNA stressed that it is not a secessionist party and it only demands a power-sharing arrangement in a unit of a re-merged Northern and Eastern Provinces under a federal structure, as existed earlier. TNA leader R. Sampanthan had thus stated on May 9, 2015, "We have never asked to divide the country. We have very clearly said that a political solution should be formulated through a local process. The Tamil people should be given a suitable political solution soon and they should also be given equal rights." Echoing a similar conciliatory note on May 18, 2015, the Chief Minister of the TNA ruled Northern Province, C. V. Wigneswaran stressed, "The environment is now much more positive. Without delay, we must work towards the all important goal of maximum devolution for the Tamil speaking people." The TNA, meanwhile, has decided to provide outside support to the National Government.

There is clearly an encouraging environment for the new Government to work towards a conclusive settlement. President Sirisena had stated, "Achieving national reconciliation with the minority Tamil community is a priority for the new Sri Lankan Government and winning hearts and minds is more important than reconstructing war-devastated buildings." It is now time to demonstrate that this was not mere rhetoric. The gains of the past years are, of course, irreversible, but the potential for mischief has not been altogether neutralized. The United States Department of State in its Annual Country Report on Terrorism for 2014, for instance, notes that despite the military defeat of the LTTE, the group’s financial network of support continued to operate throughout 2014.

Worryingly, the island nation, like many other countries in South Asia, is also facing a threat from Islamist extremism, including some emerging linkages to the Islamic State (IS). According to reports, a 37-year-old Sri Lankan national, identified as Mohammed Niram aka Sharfaz Shuraih Muhsin aka Abhu Shuraih Sailani (name given after he joined the IS), who graduated in Sharia Law from Pakistan, has reportedly died fighting alongside the IS. Reports indicate that at least one other Sri Lankan, going by the IS nom de guerre Abu Dhujaana Seylani, is also thought to be with IS in Syria, and several other Sri Lankan nationals may also be fighting for IS in Iraq and Syria. The group is believed to have some sympathizers within Sri Lanka as well.

A Government committed to national unity and a resolution of the residual ethnic issues can ensure that the nightmare of terrorism through which Sri Lanka endured for over three decades can be treated as no more than a tragic chapter of history. Sri Lanka has displayed enormous sagacity in the wake of the LTTE’s defeat, and has done exemplary work in rehabilitation and the restoration of the Northern Province. If the remaining grievances over power sharing and equality of status and rights to all citizens can be resolved, the little remaining potential for destabilization could easily be defused.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

Jammu and Kashmir

Manipur

Meghalaya

Left-Wing Extremism

Bihar

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Odisha

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

KP

Punjab

Sindh

PAKISTAN (Total)