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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 15, No. 19, November 7, 2016

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

INDIA
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SIMI: Fatal Jailbreak
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

Eight cadres of the banned Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) fled from the Bhopal Central Jail in Madhya Pradesh (MP) at around 2 to 3am in the morning of October 31, 2016, after killing a security guard, Head Constable Ramashankar, by slitting his throat with steel plate and glass after overpowering him. The escapees were identified as Mohammad Aqeel Khilji aka Abdullah, Sheikh Mehboob aka Guddu aka Malik, Amazad Khan aka Pappu aka Daud aka Umer, Zakir Hussain Sadiq aka Vicky Don aka Vinay Kumar, Mohammad Salik aka Sallu, Mohammad Khalid Ahmad, Mujeeb Sheikh aka Akram aka Wasim aka Nawed aka Nitin aka Faizan aka Chintoo aka Yusuf, and Abdul Majid.

Just hours later, between 10.30and 11.30am, all the eight escapees were killed in an encounter by the Security Forces (SFs) near Manikheda Pathar at Eintkhedi village on the outskirts of Bhopal. News media, opposition political parties and civil society organisations have raised questions about the genuineness of the encounter after the leak of a succession of videos showing stages of the alleged encounter. Suspicions were compounded by contradictory positions adopted by different Government agencies and officials. With mounting media furor, a judicial probe into the jailbreak and subsequent encounter was then ordered by MP Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan in the night of November 3, 2016.

In the meantime, Sanjeev Shami, the head of MP’s Anti-Terror Squad (ATS), which led the encounter, asserted that the escapees’ killing was necessary because of the danger they posed. He added, without giving further details, that "the police has the right to use excessive force in some situations."

Significantly, three of those killed in the Bhopal encounter –Zakir Hussain Sadiq, Sheikh Mehboob, and Amazad Khan–were among seven escapees from the Tantya Bheel Jail in MP’s Khandwa District on October 1, 2013. Each of them then carried a reward of INR one million, announced by the National Investigation Agency (NIA), before their re-arrest from Rourkela in Odisha on February 16, 2016.

Applying a similar modus operandi, six SIMI cadres and another jail inmate had escaped from the Tantya Bheel Jail on October 1, 2013, after injuring two policemen. The escapees were identified as Abu Fazal aka Doctor, Zakir Hussain Sadiq aka Vicky Don aka Vinay Kumar, Sheikh Mehboob aka Guddu aka Malik, Amazad Khan aka Pappu aka Daud aka Umer, Mohammed Aijazuddeen, Mohammed Aslam aka Bilal, all SIMI cadres; and Abid Mirza Beg, the other jail inmate. While Abid Mirza Beg was arrested from Sarvodaya Colony in Khandwa within four hours of the jailbreak, Abu Fazal was arrested from Barwani District in MP on December 23, 2013. Mohammed Aijazuddeen and Mohammed Aslam aka Bilal were killed in an encounter with the Police near Janakipuram in the Nalgonda District of Telangana, on April 4, 2015. One Police Constable was also killed while another Policeman was injured during the encounter. Zakir Hussain Sadiq, Sheikh Mehboob, and Amazad Khan were rearrested from Rourkela in Odisha on February 16, 2016.

After their escape from Khandwa jail and prior to their arrest these three – Zakir Hussain Sadiq, Sheikh Mehboob, and Amazad Khan – along with other escapees from the Khandwa Jail (prior to their respective arrest or killing) were found involved in several acts of terror reported from across the country. The most prominent among these incidents included:

July 10, 2014: Five people, including a Policeman, were injured in a low intensity bomb blast near Dagdusheth Halwai Ganapati temple in Pune in Maharashtra. The bomb was placed on a motorcycle in the parking area of Faraskhana and Vishrambaug Police Stations, located about 200 metres from the temple.

May 1, 2014: One passenger, identified as Swathi, died and another nine were injured in a bomb blast in the Guwahati-Bangalore Express train stationed at the Chennai Central Station in Chennai (Tamil Nadu).

They were also found involved in several cases of dacoity and bank robberies in different parts of MP, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha and Telangana. In one such operation, the group had looted a State Bank of India branch in Karimnagar District in Telangana on February 1, 2014, and had decamped with INR 4.6 million.

The six escapees from Khandwa were among eight SIMI/IM (Indian Mujahideen) suspects arrested by the MP Police ATS from Jabalpur and Bhopal on June 5, 2011, in connection with the November 29, 2009, triple murder of MP ATS trooper Sitaram Yadav, lawyer Sanjay Pal and bank officer Ravi Shankar Pare in Khandwa. They were also reportedly involved in the June 2011 killing of another ATS trooper, Bharat Singh Raghuvanshi, in MP’s Ratlam District; as well as the August 23, 2010, INR 25 million gold robbery in Bhopal, MP. Other banks in Itarsi city, Hoshangabad District, and the Dewas District of MP, had also been looted by them.

The five SIMI cadres – other than Zakir Hussain Sadiq, Sheikh Mehboob, and Amazad Khan – killed during October 31, 2016, encounter were also a major threat. Most prominently, Mujeeb Sheikh was facing charges for the July 26, 2008, serial blasts in Ahmedabad (Gujarat), which killed 55 and injured 145. Mohammad Aqeel Khilji was reportedly planning to assassinate prominent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) leaders. While Mujeeb was arrested from Jabalpur on June 5, 2011, Khilji, was arrested on March 27, 2012 from Aurangabad District of Maharashtra.

According to reports, Abu Fazal was the mastermind of both the jailbreaks (Khandwa and Bhopal) and all the 11 SIMI cadres involved in these two incidents were part of the ‘Fazal group’ which had a larger plan of action, including freeing SIMI ‘chief’ Safdar Nagori from Sabarmati Central Jail (Ahmadabad), where he is incarcerated since his arrest from Indore in MP on March 27, 2008. They had also planned to take American tourists hostage and use them as a bargaining chip to free Aafia Siddiqui. Siddiqui,a Pakistani scientist, was arrested in Afghanistan in 2008 and was flown to the United States, where she was sentenced to 86 years in prison for the attempted murder of two US soldiers.

SIMI was formed at Aligarh in the State of Uttar Pradesh on April 25, 1977, and became progressively involved in terrorism through the 1990s, turned into a major threat thereafter, carrying out several attacks, mostly in alliance with the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) between 2000 and 2008, across India. It lost its prowess after the SFs launched a massive crackdown post the September 13, 2008, Delhi serial blasts, which resulted in 24 deaths. Its attempt to revive after the Khandwa jailbreak was also thwarted by the SFs with the neutralization of the group. According to partial data compiled by South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), since March 11, 2000, 705 SIMI cadres have been arrested in 124 incidents across India (data till November 6, 2016).

There is no information in the open source regarding how many of these 705 arrested cadres are still in jail. Reports indicate that at least 30 SIMI cadres were inside Bhopal Central Jail prior to the October 31 incident. Several reports confirm that the security at Bhopal Central Jail was compromised. Former Madhya Pradesh Inspector General (Prisons), G. K. Agarwal, in a letter dated June 26, 2014, had written to the then State Chief Secretary, Anthony Desa, marking copies to National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and the Intelligence Bureau, to state, “At present, SIMI activists from other prisons have been kept in the Bhopal Central Jail. But given the structure of the jail building, its vulnerable points, illogical security arrangement and deplorable condition of staff, it would be wrong to presume that everything is OK if no major incident takes place. God is helping but it would a mistake to presume that he will continue to offer help.’’ There is no report to suggest that any corrective measures were taken thereafter. More worryingly, reports now indicate that CCTV cameras at the Jail were not fully functional and the escapees knew this.

Presently, global jihadi formations such as al Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) are reportedly attempting to make inroads in India, forging ties with 'home grown terror networks' to serve their (al Qaeda’s and IS’) respective agendas. This would include efforts to revive 'home grown terror networks' who have lost influence and capabilities due to successful SF operations over the last several years (especially since 2008). Under this challenging and continuously evolving security environment, lapses such as the October 31 incident, can prove extraordinarily expensive for national security. It is imperative consequently, that respective States and the Central Government safeguard their vital assets – including penitentiaries where arrested terrorist cadres are housed – lest the dangers of terrorism escalate after a fairly extended downtrend.

INDIA
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Manipur: Residual Disturbances
Nijeesh N.
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

The Chief Minister (CM) of Manipur Okram Ibobi Singh came under gun attack when suspected National Socialist Council of Nagaland Isak-Muivah faction (NSCN-IM) militants opened fire at him and his associates as they were getting out of their helicopter at the Pakshi Ground Helipad in Ukhrul District on October 24, 2016. Singh was accompanied by Deputy Chief Minister Gaikhangam Gangmei, Commerce and Industries Minister Govindas Konthoujam, Forest Minister I. Hemochandra Singh, Deputy Speaker M.K. Preshow Shimray and Parliamentary Secretary Victor Keishing. Soon after the chopper landed, the militants started firing, which last for more than ten minutes and in which one Manipur Rifles (MR) trooper, identified as William Tarao, sustained severe injuries. The ambush on the CM and his team came amidst protests and a boycott call issued by the native Naga tribal group, Tangkhul Naga Long (TNL). Singh and his Ministers were on their way to inaugurate development projects in the Districts. With heightened security concerns, the Chief Minister and his team had to cancel their programme and fly back to Imphal. The Security Forces (SFs) could not apprehend a single militant involved in the attack.

Violent protests by Naga outfits had started in the late night of October 23, 2016, as suspected NSCN-IM militants triggered four bomb explosions in which two Indian Reserve Battalion (IRB) personnel were injured. Of the four explosions in quick succession, one occurred in the early morning of October 24, 2016, near the newly constructed Ukhrul District Hospital at Hungpung, The Hospital was supposed to be inaugurated by the Chief Minister. The attack completely destroyed the space where the public meeting was to be held.

Though no militant groups claimed responsibility for the bomb attack, Deputy Chief Minister Gaikhangam Gangmei, who also retains the Home portfolio, on October 25, 2016, strongly condemned the incident terming it as “uncivilised and cowardly” and pointed fingers at NSCN-IM for carrying out the attack, adding, “State Government takes the incident seriously and will take the matter to the Government of India.” He reiterated that NSCN-IM was engaged in peace talk with the Centre and had, yet again, violated the ground rules by using the highest form of violence against State leaders.

On October 29, 2016, Imphal West Police commandos claimed that they had arrested an NSCN-IM cadre, identified as Honpam Jajo (48), who was allegedly involved in the planning and arrangement of the attack on the Chief Minister and his team. He was working under the command of Akhui, who the “in charge” of “home (law and order)” of the outfit according to Police sources. Honpam had gathered information about the movement of the State Security Forces and Central Para-Military Forces on the eve of the Chief Minister’s visit to Ukhrul on October 24, 2016. One Chinese made hand grenade and one mobile phone were recovered from Honpam’s possession.

Tangkhul Naga-dominated Ukhrul is one of the least developed Districts of Manipur, and is also home to NSCN-IM ‘chief’ Thuingaleng Muivah. The Government of Manipur, particularly Chief Minister Ibobi Singh, has been accused of giving ‘step-motherly’ treatment to these Naga inhabited hill areas in the State. The general perception among the Tangkhul Naga tribes is that Ibobi Singh, a Meitei, is ‘anti-Naga’, and that the inauguration of an incomplete hospital was only a gimmick for getting votes in the forthcoming State Assembly elections in early 2017. According to security sources, central Intelligence agencies had informed the Chief Minister that NSCN-IM chief Muivah was unhappy about the Chief Minister visiting 'an area of their (NSCN-IM’s) dominance', and that the outfit could resort to violence to prevent the inauguration of the hospital and other projects. Officials also pointed out that NSCN-IM, which is demanding Ukhrul District as part of their Nagalim (Greater Nagaland), may not have intended a fatal assault on the Chief Minister, but directed threatening fire at the helipad to "stake their claim to Ukhrul".

Despite these incidents, the general security environment in the State has improved remarkably during the current year. According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Manipur recorded only 27 insurgency-related fatalities (12 civilians, eight SF personnel and seven militants) in 2016 (Data till November 6, 2016), as compared to 87 (16 civilians, 23 SF personnel and 48 militants) in the corresponding period of last year, a decline of 69 percent. This is the lowest number of fatalities recorded in a year in the State since 1992 [the year since which SATP data is available].

The Ukhrul attack has raised serious doubt about the successful finalization of the historical ‘Framework Agreement’ between the Government of India (GoI) and the NSCN-IM, which was signed on August 3, 2015. One of the major challenges for finalizing a settlement is the issue of 'Naga integration' of all Naga dominated areas in the neighbouring States of Nagaland, including Manipur. The principal demand of NSCN-IM for a ‘Greater Nagaland’ comprising contiguous Naga-inhabited parts of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and some bordering areas of the neighbouring country, Myanmar, faces stiff opposition from these States, especially from Manipur.  

The Union Government has remained tight lipped on the contents of Framework Agreement, conceding only that, "the framework agreement lays down broad principle within which final agreement will be worked out and consultation with all stakeholders including State Governments of Nagaland, Assam, Meghalaya and Manipur will be held before reaching a final agreement".

After the Helipad attack, the Union Government reacted very carefully, despite Deputy Chief Minister Gaikhangam’s categorical statement that the Centre could not remain silent after NSCN-IM had broken the ceasefire by attacking the Chief Minister. On October 30, 2016, Union Minister of State for Home, Kiren Rijiju, while condemning the attack, rubbished accusations that the Central Government gave “free hands” (sic) to the NSCN-IM to carry out the attack. He added, “I will not pass any comment unless official report is available because it is a sensitive matter and I should not comment on it for the time being.”

Meanwhile, the State Government has initiated action against NSCN-IM after the October 24 attack, resulting in the arrest of at least 10 of its cadres from different parts of the State. SATP data indicates that at least 15 NSCN-IM militants have been arrested in Manipur since the signing of the Framework Agreement on August 3, 2015.  

Although violent incidents involving NSCN-IM have come down drastically in the region as result of the ongoing peace talks, Manipur has witnessed sporadic violence. Interestingly, since the August 3, 2015, Agreement, not a single NSCN-IM related fatality has been registered in Nagaland. However, according to SATP data, two civilians and one Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF) militant were killed in three separate incidents by NSCN-IM militants in Manipur during this period (all data updated till November 6, 2016).

Recently, Manipur witnessed protests over the issue of creation of two new Districts in the State – Sadar Hills out of Senapati and Jiribam out of Imphal East. While Kuki organisations are agitating for the creation of Sadar Hills District, Naga groups including the United Naga Council (UNC) are opposing the move. The NSCN-IM, in an emergency Joint meeting of the Council of Kilonsers (Ministers) and Steering Members on October 31, 2016, at Hebron (Dimapur District of Nagaland), took strong exception to the reported plan by the Manipur State Government to declare Sadar Hills and Jiribam as Districts. A Press Note from the NSCN-IM ‘Ministry of Information & Publicity (MIP)’ indicated that the ‘House’ took a unanimous decision to oppose “such provocative moves to the last.” It further affirmed the “ownership of the land that it is a part of ancestral Naga domain… Unless rightful ownership of the land is acknowledged by the settlers, the NSCN-IM/GPRN (Government of the People’s Republic of Nagaland) shall never tolerate any move that infringes upon the rights of the owner (Nagas).” The NSCN-IM nonetheless stated that it was “prepared to negotiate on any proposed agenda if ownership is duly acknowledged and respected.”

Several indigenous groups alleged that NSCN-IM was also responsible for the under development of the Hill areas of Manipur. Manipur Naga People’s Front (MNPF) alleged that, “For the last 20 years 90 per cent of the development works of the hill areas particularly in the Naga areas have been spoiled by NSCN-IM.” Besides, other factions of the NSCN, especially the Reformation and Unification factions (NSCN-R and NSCN-U) recently stated that they would not be part of the ongoing peace-talks between NSCN-IM and GoI.

Though NSCN-IM is confident that the final outcome of the Framework Agreement would bring a onetime solution for the persistent Naga problem, the integration of Nagas outside the territory of the Nagaland State, especially in Manipur’s hill region, remains a major hurdle to any permanent solution.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
October 31-November 6, 2016

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Islamist Terrorism

1
0
0
1

INDIA

 

Assam

1
0
0
1

Jammu and Kashmir

0
0
1
1

Madhya Pradesh

0
1
8
9

Left-Wing Extremism

 

Chhattisgarh

1
1
0
2

Jharkhand

3
0
0
3

Odisha

1
0
0
1

Total (INDIA)

6
2
9
17

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

0
1
7
8

FATA

0
1
1
2

KP

1
1
2
4

Islamabad Capital Territory

0
1
0
1

Sindh

1
0
15
16

Total (PAKISTAN)

2
4
25
31
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


INDIA

Eight suspected SIMI terrorists killed in Madhya Pradesh: Anti-terrorist Squad (ATS) of Madhya Pradesh (MP) Police killed eight suspected Student Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) cadres in Bhopal on October 31. They were killed 10 kilometers away from a prison in city outskirts. Two policemen were also injured in the encounter which lasted for nearly an hour. Theses militants had escaped from a prison at the outskirts of Bhopal. "Eight SIMI activists had escaped around 2-3am [October 31] by killing a jail security guard," Deputy Inspector General (DIG) Bhopal Raman Singh had said. Times of India, October 31, 2016.

Islamic State used Mumbai city hawala network, says NIA: The National Investigation Agency (NIA)’s probe against the Islamic State (IS) revealed that Shafi Armar alias Yusuf-al-Hindi alias Anjaan Bhai (29), a Bhatkal (Uttara Kannada District of Karnataka) resident, who allegedly handles the terror group’s activities in India has over the past one year used contacts in Mumbai-based hawala ((illegal money transfer) networks to transfer funds for terror-related activities, including setting up of a base in India. Shafi Armar, who is absconding and is suspected of being in Syria, had used two unidentified Mumbai-based hawala couriers, including an unidentified lungi (male garment) trader, to allegedly transfer INR 586,000 in cash to a key associate a few months ago, according to a counter-terror agency official familiar with the NIA probe. Asian Age, November 5, 2016.

Most Indians fighting for Islamic State based in Raqqa, says IS fighter Subahani Haja Moideen: Islamic State’s (IS) fighter Subahani Haja Moideen, an Indian who trained in Iraq in 2015 and met some of the Paris (France) attackers, informed Indian intelligence agencies that most youngsters from India, who joined IS are based in the Syrian city of Raqqa, the de-facto capital of the self-proclaimed caliphate. Based on his interaction with another IS senior member from India, who he was in touch with regularly during his five-month stay in Mosul (Iraq) last year (2015), Moideen came to the conclusion that most Indian recruits are in Raqqa. Times of India, November 5, 2016.

Pakistan violates ceasefire 99 times on LoC post-surgical strike, says Army officer: Pakistani troops have violated the ceasefire 99 times along the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), targeting Indian posts and civilian areas, after the surgical strike by the army on Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK)-based terrorist launching pads. "Pakistani troops have violated the ceasefire along LoC in Jammu and Kashmir 99 times after the surgical strike by Indian Army troops on terror launch pads in PoK," an unnamed senior Army officer on November 4. Times of India, November 5, 2016.

Pakistan engaging in proxy war in J&K, says MoD Manohar Parrikar: Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar on November 3 said that after facing defeat in face to face battles, Pakistan is engaging in a proxy war in Jammu and Kashmir and will be given a befitting reply. Parrikar said, “Pakistan has always been trying to occupy Jammu and Kashmir and we consider this land (Jammu and Kashmir) and its people as our integral part. After facing defeat in face to face battles, Pakistan is now engaging in a proxy war on this paradise on earth. They also targeted others parts of the country as well. Our soldiers are fighting this battle with professionalism… On this occasion, let us renew the pledge to give fitting reply to the proxy war and end the terrorism here.” Daily Excelsior, November 4, 2016.

Pakistan abuses self-determination to bolster its terror agenda, India told UN: India on November 3 said at UN General Assembly that its citizens have faced repeated "inhuman" terror attacks by "proxies" of Pakistan, which continues to abuse the concept of self-determination to bolster territorial aggrandizement against it. "Pakistan, whose own people have been deprived of their democratic rights for most of its history and which continues to illegally occupy a part of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir and rules it as a virtual colony, repeatedly indulges in the abuse of the concept of self-determination to bolster its agenda of territorial aggrandizement through terrorism against India," Counsellor in the Permanent Mission of India to the UN Mayank Joshi said at a General Assembly session on the 'Right of people to self-determination'. Deccan Chronicle, November 3, 2016.   

Situation in J&K "extremely fragile", says state DGP K Rajendra: Describing the situation in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) as "extremely fragile", state Director General of Police (DGP) K Rajendra on November 5 said around 300 terrorists are active in the state and that continuing infiltration along the Line of Control (LoC) is a cause of worry. The DGP said even though the intensity and spread of the protest has come down, it continued to be "extremely fragile". "While the intensity and spread of situation has come down, the situation is extremely fragile. At present, 250-300 militants are active. Given the present situation, we need to have a road map for next two-three months," he said. "The continuing infiltration along the border is a cause of worry which can change the whole game," the DGP said. Times of India, November 6, 2016.


NEPAL

Government to intensify talks with agitating forces: The Government is planning to hold consultations with ruling parties and the main opposition Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) on November 4, with a view to introducing the constitution amendment bill in Parliament by November 15. In the latest talks between the Government and agitating United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF) and the Federal Alliance (FA) on October 30, Prime Minster (PM) Pushpa Kamal Dahal assured UDMF and FA leaders that the Government would introduce the bill by November 15. The Himalayan Times, November 3, 2016.    

Elections will be held within constitutional deadline, says NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba: Nepali Congress (NC) President Sher Bahadur Deuba, on October 31, said the elections of the three structures of the state will be concluded within the time stipulated by the constitution. Deuba urged all quarters to shun doubts regarding whether the elections will be held or not. My Republica, November 2, 2016.    

Elections after Constitution amendment, says PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal: Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal stressed on the need for unity among political parties for the amendment of Constitution and holding fresh elections. On October 31, the Prime Minister opined that the parties needed to be united now like in the wake of the April 2015 devastating earthquake. The Himalayan Times, October 31, 2016.   


SRI LANKA

'Aava' gang was a creation of former Defense Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa, says Health Minister Rajitha Harischandra Senaratne: Cabinet spokesman Health Minister Rajitha Harischandra Senaratne on November 2 said the underworld gang "Aava" active in the North was a creation of former Defense Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa and certain top military officers. He said though there may be some rationale to use them against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) during the war, in the peace time they are only a bunch of criminals and thugs who should be apprehended at once and brought before the law. Dailymirror, November 3, 2016.    


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

 
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Dr. Ajai Sahni


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