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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 15, No. 29, January 16, 2017
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Sustained
Optimism
S.
Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
Articulating
new hopes of prosperity, coexistence and reconciliation,
President Maithripala Sirisena, in his New Year message
on January 1, 2017, declared, “The year 2017 dawns with
new hopes of prosperity, coexistence and reconciliation
in our hearts. It is imperative that we overcome the challenges
ahead of us. The progress of the human race was pioneered
by people who faced challenges with confidence, utmost
courage and determination amidst obstacles. Our goals
could be achieved if we manage our work efficiently and
productively, and do the right thing at the right time
with unwavering commitment to serve the greater good.”
Similarly, the Leader of the Opposition and of the Tamil
National Alliance (TNA) R. Sampanthan, in his message
of greetings for the New Year, noted, “2017 will be a
crucial year in the history of our country. Our expectation
is that we should find a permanent and lasting solution
to the national question. The new Constitution in the
New Year should bring about this achievement.”
On March
9, 2016, the Sri Lankan Parliament unanimously and without
a vote, approved
the change of the Parliament into a Constitutional Assembly
(CA) to draft a new Constitution for the island nation.
The new Constitution is expected to replace the current
executive President-headed Constitution adopted in 1978
and to replace it with a Parliamentary system. It could
also partially replace the Proportional Representation
system by the First Past the Post System. District-wise
constituencies are also likely to be partially replaced
by smaller constituencies and preferential votes for candidates
in a party list could be abolished entirely.
At the
first sitting of the CA held on April 5, 2016, a 21-member
Steering Committee, chaired by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe,
was appointed. The Steering Committee is responsible for
the business of the CA and for preparing a Draft Constitutional
Proposal, and is assisted by the six Sub-Committees appointed
at the second sitting of the CA held on May 5, 2016 to
make recommendations on Fundamental Rights, Judiciary,
Finance, Law & Order, Public Service and Centre-Periphery
Relations. Assuring the country's legislature that the
new Constitution would be drafted in consultation with
all political parties and the people would have the opportunity
to approve it, Prime Minister Wickremesinghe presented
the reports of the six sub committees on November 19,
2016. The Prime Minster disclosed that preliminary debate
on the reports could be held on January 9-11, 2017. However,
the three-day Parliamentary debate on the Constitutional
proposals was postponed by two weeks on January 5, 2017,
as some political parties sought further time to define
their stands.
Separately,
seeking the support of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa
for the ongoing Constitutional reform efforts, Prime Minister
Ranil Wickremesinghe and Leader of the Opposition Sampanthan,
on December 16, 2016, asked Rajapaksa to back the National
Unity Government (NUG) and other political parties working
with it to remake the country’s Constitution. Disturbingly,
on December 29, 2016, Joint Opposition (JO) leader Rajapaksa
vowed to topple the NUG and regain power in 2017, just
two years after he was ousted in a shocking election
upset. Earlier, on July 7, 2016, the
JO announced its ‘Shadow Cabinet’ during a meeting in
Parliament, in which Rajapaksa was appointed shadow Prime
Minister and given the portfolio of Defence as well. Some
of the other appointments to the 'Shadow Cabinet' included
Education – Dullas Alahapperuma; Finance – Bandula Gunawardana;
Foreign Affairs – Namal Rajapaksa; Highways – Chamal Rajapaksa;
Local Government and Provincial Council – Ranjith de Zoysa;
Ports and Shipping – Kumara Welgama; Labour – Gamini Lokuge;
and Rural Industries – S.M. Chandrasena.
In another
development which is expected to have a far reaching impact
on the reconciliation process, President Sirisena handed
over 701 acres of land to 700 original land-owners during
a ceremony held at Nadeshvar College in Jaffna District
on March 12, 2016. Further, on October 31, 2016, the President,
handed over 100 houses newly constructed by the military
to internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Jaffna District
in Northern Province and released another 454 acres of
land that was seized by the military in war time to the
original owners. On August 4, 2016, the Cabinet approved
SLR 971 million to resettle IDP families. Once again,
on November 10, 2016, the Cabinet approved another proposal
to allocate SLR 88 million to purchase more lands in the
former war-torn North to resettle the remaining 462 IDP
families. Three decades of civil war between Government
Forces and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
had ended in May 2009, leaving behind an estimated 300,000
IDPs in the North.
Further,
on January 26, 2016, the Task Force on Reconciliation
Mechanisms appointed by Prime Minister Wickremesinghe
handed over its report to the Foreign Affairs Minister
Mangala Samaraweera on January 3, 2017. In its report
the Task Force recommended including at least one international
judge in the judicial process seeking accountability for
war time abuses during the last phase of the country's
decades-long civil war.
The Government,
however, remains opposed to the participation of foreign
judges to hear or inquire into war crime allegations.
Giving an assurance
that the Government was planning to finalize judicial
mechanisms to probe war abuses in 2017, Health Minister
Rajitha Senaratne observed, on January 10, 2017, “Deciding
on the participation of foreign judges with the investigations
on Sri Lanka’s war crime allegations and human right violations
is a sovereign right of the Sri Lankan Government and
will be decided by the Sri Lankan Government.” Likewise,
Foreign Affairs Minister Mangala Samaraweera stated, on
January 11, 2017, “Sri Lanka is committed to the implementation
of the United Nations resolution, which it cosponsored
in October 2015 so that we as a country can deal with
the past honestly and truthfully, accept that past, put
it behind us, and then move forward to build our Sri Lankan
nation anew."
To help
several thousands of families of missing persons across
Sri Lanka to discover the fate of their loved ones and
the circumstances under which they went missing, Parliament
passed the Office on Missing Persons (OMP) Bill on August
11, 2016. According to the Government, the OMP will be
composed of commissioners and officers of the highest
moral integrity, constituted at the highest level by the
President, on recommendation of the Constitutional Council.
Separately, the Presidential Commission Investigating
Cases of Missing Persons (PCICMP), established on August
15, 2013, handed over its final report to the Presidential
Secretariat on August 14, 2016. The Commission had received
16,213 complaints from civilians and another 5,000 complaints
from relatives of missing Security Force (SF) personnel.
Further, on August 26, 2016, the Parliamentary Oversight
Committee of the Rehabilitation and Resettlement Ministry
decided to grant bank loans at concessionary rates to
ex-LTTE cadres for self-employment purposes. About 12,000
LTTE combatants surrendered to the military during the
final stages of the war and underwent rehabilitation,
which included the provision of vocational training skills.
The Government
is also in the process of repealing the Prevention of
Terrorism Act (PTA) and introducing a new counter-terrorism
legislation that is in line with contemporary international
practices. On March 2, 2016, the Law Commission Department
submitted the amended Prevention of Terrorism Draft Bill
with human rights safeguards to the three relevant Ministers
– Justice and Buddha Sasana (“teachings of the Buddha”)
Minister Dr. Wijayadasa Rajapakshe, Foreign Affairs Minister
Mangala Samaraweera and Development Strategies and International
Trade Minister Malik Samarawickrema. Further, on October
11, 2016, the Government appointed a Committee chaired
by the Minister of Law and Order and Southern Development
Sagala Ratnayake to draft the new counter terrorism law
to replace PTA.
The Northern
Province has, however, been stressing federalism as a
solution to devolve power in the Island nation. On April
23, 2016, the Northern Provincial Council (NPC) passed
a Bill with a majority vote to establish the Northern
and Eastern Provinces into one federal ruling system.
Several organizations and the parents and relatives of
Tamil political prisoners staged a demonstration in the
Killinochchi town of Killinochchi District on September
5, 2016, calling upon the Government to free Tamil political
prisoners. Further, thousands of Tamils staged a mass
protest led by Northern Province Chief Minister C.V. Wigneswaran
in Jaffna District on September 24, 2016, to highlight
issues faced by the community. This was the first time
the Northerners have taken part in a public gathering
of this scale since Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena
took over in January 2015. Significantly, on November
26, 2016, the 62nd birth anniversary of slain LTTE leader
Velupillai Prabhakaran was celebrated at the Jaffna University
in Jaffna District. Hundreds of Jaffna University students,
as well as academic and non-academic staff gathered at
the Kailasapathy Auditorium of the varsity to celebrate
the birth anniversary by cutting cakes. They also lit
candles and planted saplings in memory of those who were
killed during the civil war. The birth anniversary was
celebrated despite the Government’s warning that action
would be taken against anyone trying to take part in the
event.
Speaking
for the minority Tamils, United Nations (UN) Special Rapporteur
on Minority issues Rita Izsák-Ndiaye, who concluded a
10-day mission to Sri Lanka on October 20, 2016, recommended
that the Government should establish an Independent Commission
on Minorities under the Constitution with a clear mandate,
powers, resources and autonomy. Earlier, on June 28, 2016,
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein,
while releasing its annual
report, urged Sri Lanka to rein in
the military and prosecute war crimes. At least 250 security
detainees were still being held under the PTA, the UN
report noted. Separately, the Human Right Commission of
Sri Lanka (HRCSL) in a report submitted to the United
Nations Committee Against Torture (UNCAT) on November
1, 2016, observed that, based on statistics at the Commission's
disposal, the Commission recognizes torture to be of routine
nature and practiced all over the country. UNCAT called
on Sri Lanka on December 7, 2016, to investigate documented
allegations of torture and rape of detainees by Security
Forces (SFs) and to rein in broad Police powers. Further,
Human Rights Watch (HRW) on January 12, 2017, noted that,
though the Sri Lankan Government was able to report progress
on certain aspects and sought technical expertise from
the UN and other countries, the United
Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) resolution
adopted in October 2015 on the country remained largely
unimplemented. The resolution called upon Colombo to establish
a credible judicial process, with the participation of
Commonwealth and other foreign judges, defense lawyers
and authorized prosecutors and investigators, to go into
the alleged human rights abuses.
To address
the demand of the Tamils for the devolution of power through
the new Constitution to provinces within a united Sri
Lanka, President Sirisena stated, on March 21, 2016, that
devolution of power instead of centralizing it is the
practice of developed nations and distributing power is
effective in terms of democracy, independence, human rights
and fundamental rights. Similarly, on January 15, 2016,
Prime Minister Wickremesinghe had noted, "We are
ready to devolve power (to minority Tamils) and protect
democracy. The Constitutional Assembly will discuss with
all, including (Tamil-dominated) provincial councils to
have a new Constitution. We will do that in a transparent
manner."
Praising
Sri Lanka's commitment to reconciliation, UN Secretary
General Ban Ki-moon telephoned President Maithripala Sirisena
on December 22, 2016, and commended the progress achieved
in social, economic, political and all sectors in Sri
Lanka, under the President’s leadership. Further, on January
11, 2017, the European Commission proposed Generalized
System of Preferences Plus (GSP+) trade concessions to
Sri Lanka in exchange for the Government's commitment
to ratify 27 international conventions on human rights,
labor conditions, protection of the environment and good
governance. GSP+ preferences can make a significant contribution
to Sri Lanka’s economic development by increasing exports
to the European Union market.
Through
2016, the political environment for a comprehensive Constitutional
reform has changed for the better. It remains to be seen
whether the redrafted Constitution will be able to sufficiently
accommodate the aspirations of all communities in the
country. Of greater concern are the remnants of Tamil
separatist formations who seek to keep confrontation alive,
seeking racial segregation, rather than integration or
the “democratization, reconciliation and development”
that the new Constitution seeks. The drafting of a new
Constitution clearly creates both a challenge and an opportunity
to address the grievances of the long, twisted and violent
history of this Island nation.
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Arunachal
Pradesh: Relative Peace Persists
Nijeesh
N.
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On December
14, 2016, Security Forces (SFs) killed two cadres of the
Independent faction of United Liberation Front of Asom
(ULFA-I),
identified as Deep Moran and Noga Moran, during an encounter
at Dharmapur village under Maio Police Station in Changlang
District. SFs also managed to arrest six other ULFA-I
cadres, including two women, during the operation. One
AK-47 rifle and one pistol were recovered from the possession
of the arrested militants. It was suspected that the slain
militants were involved in the ambush
at Pengaree near Digboi in Tinsukia District, Assam, on
November 19, 2016, in which three Army personnel were
killed.
On July
26, 2016, personnel of the Assam Rifles (AR) and Assam
Police, in a joint operation, killed a self-styled ‘lance
corporal' of ULFA-I, identified as Bhaity Milli aka
Shan Asom in Changlang District. According to an AR
statement, the militant had fired on the person leading
the patrol and tried to escape. The troops retaliated
and Milli was killed in the ensuing gunfight. One revolver
along with ammunition was recovered from his possession.
On July
7, 2016, AR personnel killed four cadres of the ‘Reformation’
faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland
(NSCN-R), identified as ‘captain’ Jano Tekwa, ‘sergeant
major’ Lombho Pangsa, ‘sergeant’ Tongbai and ‘corporal’
Mankhu Wangsa, during an encounter at the remote Kheti
village near Khonsa in Tirap District. The troops recovered
two AK-47 rifles along with four magazines, one pistol,
live ammunition and documents from the encounter site.
NSCN-R cadres were reportedly engaged in collecting ‘tax’,
arms dealing and drug peddling in Khonsa and villages
nearby. The slain militants were operating from a temporary
camp located in the vicinity of Kheti village, according
to an AR statement.
The single
incident in Arunachal Pradesh through 2016 in which SFs’
lost their life occurred on December 3, 2016. Two AR
personnel, including a Junior Commissioned Officer (JCO),
were killed and eight others were injured when their convoy
was ambushed by suspected militants of the Khaplang faction
of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K)
at Nginu village in Tirap District along the India-Myanmar
border.
The State
did not witness a single civilian fatality in 2016.
Thus, according
to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism
Portal (SATP), Arunachal Pradesh recorded a total
of nine insurgency/militancy-related fatalities, including
two SF personnel and seven militants in 2016, as against
10 fatalities, including two civilians, four SF personnel
and four militants, through 2015. No fatalities have yet
been registered in the State in 2017 (data till January
15). Insurgency related violence in Arunachal peaked in
2001, with 63 fatalities, including 40 civilians, 12 SF
personnel and 11 militants
Further,
incidents of killing through 2016 stood at four, as against
six in 2015. The State witnessed only one major incident
(involving three or more fatalities) through 2016; the
July 7, 2016, Khonsa encounter, in which four NSCN-R cadres
were killed. There was one major in 2015 as well: three
Army personnel were killed and another four were wounded
in an ambush when cadres of the Isak-Muivah faction of
National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM)
fired on their convoy at Tupi village, along the Khonsa-Longding
road, in Tirap District on April 2, 2015.
In 2016,
fatalities were reported from two Districts (Changlang
and Tirap) as against three (Changlang, Longding, Tirap)
in 2015. While seven militants (four NSCN-R and three
ULFA-I) were killed during 2016, a total of four militants
(three NSCN-K and one unidentified) were killed in 2015.
Evidently,
the overall security situation in the State has improved
further through 2016, primarily due to sustained pressure
from SFs who, apart from neutralising nine militants,
arrested at least another 48 belonging to various outfits
in 28 separate incidents through the year. Of the arrested
militants, 28 belonged to various Naga outfits (NSCN-R,
12; NSCN-K, nine; NSCN-IM, six; and National Socialist
Council of Nagaland-Unification (NSCN-U),
1); and 13 militants belonging to the Assam-based ULFA-I.
Affiliations of the remaining seven arrested militants
remained unconfirmed. These were in addition to 21 such
arrests in 10 separate incidents in 2015. Two militants
have been arrested so far in 2017(data till January 15).
Worryingly,
however, extortion and abduction-for-extortion remained
a major challenge. According to Arunachal Pradesh Police
records, at least 103 cases of abduction and 80 cases
of extortion were registered through 2016 (data till November
31). Reports indicate that different factions of the NSCN,
ULFA-I and the I.K. Songbijit faction of the National
Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-IKS)
were responsible for the majority of the reported cases
(a large proportion of such incidents likely go unreported).
In a prominent incident, ULFA-I militants abducted Kuldeep
Moran, the son of Ratneswar Moran, vice-chairman of the
Tinsukia zilla parishad (District Council) in Assam
and a local leader of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP), from Nampong in Changlang District on August 1,
2016. The militants reportedly demanded INR 10 million
in ransom for his safe release. Interestingly, on August
22, 2016, ULFA-I released video footage of the abducted
Moran making an appeal to his parents, Assam Chief Minister
Sarbananda Sonowal and BJP MLA (Member of Legislative
Assembly) from Sadiya Assembly Constituency in Tinsukia
District, Bolin Chetia, to help secure his release. Moran
was eventually released, reportedly without paying the
ransom, on September 9, 2016.
The Union
Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), in a notification dated
November 4, 2016, stated: “…further review of the law
and order situation in Tirap, Changlang and Longding Districts
of Arunachal Pradesh indicates that :- 1) security scenario
in Tirap, Changlang and Longding Districts remains vitiated
by the spillover of Naga insurgency; 2) Naga UG factions,
namely NSCN-K, NSCN-IM, NSCN-R and NSCN-NK [Neokpao–Khitovi
faction of NSCN, also known as NSCN-U] continue to indulge
in extortion, area domination, recruitment of locals,
inter-factional rivalry; 3) NSCN-K in active participation
with ULFA-I, is persisting with its attempt to target
Security Forces; 4) NSCN-IM is contriving to dominate
areas hitherto occupied by NSCN-K and is resorting to
intimidation and extortion; 5) NSCN-R is also active in
Tirap, Longding and, Changlang Districts and with its
armed cadres has been focusing on recruiting local youth;
6) NSCN-NK has managed to gain a foothold in Longding
District and is engaging in extortion and abduction; 7)
ULFA-I has started indulging in extortion in certain pockets
along Arunachal-Assam boundary. Movement of NDFB-IKS and
NDFB-R cadres has also been reported in these areas for
escaping Counter Insurgency operations and for infiltrating
to/from Myanmar. Therefore, Tirap, Changlang and Longding
Districts in Arunachal Pradesh are declared as ‘disturbed
area’ under Section 3 of the Armed Forces (Special Powers)
Act [AFSPA], 1958, for six months, w.e.f. 4.11.2016, unless
withdrawn earlier.”
Interestingly,
the Union Government had signed a ‘framework
agreement’with NSCN-IM on August 3,
2015, to find a final solution to the six-decade-old Naga
issue. Though the Government had then stated that it would
reach a final settlement in one year, nothing significant
has been achieved so far.
Significantly,
two of the three militancy affected Districts of Arunachal
Pradesh (Changlang and Tirap) share borders with Myanmar,
where many of the major insurgent groups operating in
India’s Northeast region have taken shelter. 520 kilometres
of the 1,643 kilometres-long Indian border with Myanmar
pass through Arunachal Pradesh, and the rest through Manipur
(398 kilometres), Nagaland (215 kilometres) and Mizoram
(510 kilometres). The Union Government has so far sanctioned
fencing along just 10 kilometres (all in Manipur). Only
four kilometres of the sanctioned length has been completed
so far and work has been suspended due to protest from
the Government of Manipur. Concerned over reports that
the border fencing would lead to a loss of at least 1,000
square kilometres of Manipur land, a significant chunk
given the fact that the State's total area is just 22,327
square kilometres, Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh on
March 4, 2016, had told the State Assembly, “Manipur will
never compromise on its territory.” He added that, until
and unless all the contested claims are settled permanently,
nothing should be done which may disturb the status quo.
Most recently, the fencing carried out by the Myanmar
Government along the India-Myanmar border in the Pangsa
village area of Nagaland’s Tuensang District had been
opposed by Naga groups on the grounds that the “proposed
imaginary International boundary fencing” between India
and Myanmar “will infringe Naga people inhabiting across
artificial boundaries (sic).” It is imperative
that India evolves a mechanism to strengthen its border
management in the region.
Though
Arunachal Pradesh has long remained ‘an island of relative
peace’ in India’s troubled Northeast, the State continues
to experience threats of insurgency-related violence as
result of the ‘overflow’ of the insurgencies from neighbouring
States and militant sanctuaries in Myanmar.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
January
9 - 15, 2017
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Civilians
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Security
Force Personnel
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Terrorists/Insurgents
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Total
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INDIA
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Jammu and
Kashmir
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0
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0
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7
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7
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Manipur
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1
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0
|
1
|
2
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Left-Wing
Extremism
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Chhattisgarh
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0
|
1
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6
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7
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Jharkhand
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2
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0
|
1
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3
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Maharashtra
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2
|
0
|
0
|
2
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Total (INDIA)
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5
|
1
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15
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21
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PAKISTAN
|
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Balochistan
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1
|
0
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0
|
1
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Sindh
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0
|
1
|
0
|
1
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Total (PAKISTAN)
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|
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Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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