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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 15, No. 48, May 29, 2017
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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J&K:
Turbulence by Design
Ajit
Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
The Security
Forces (SFs) killed eight terrorists, including Hizb-ul-Mujahideen's
(HM)
incumbent ‘Kashmir Commander' Sabzar Ahmad Bhat, in two
separate encounters in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) on
May 27, 2017. In the first encounter, SFs killed six terrorists
along the Line of Control (LoC) in the Rampur sector of
Baramulla District. In another encounter the same day,
SFs eliminated Sabzar Ahmad Bhat along with another HM
terrorist in the Tral Area of Pulwama District. Further,
on May 28, Army shot dead a militant along the LoC in
Poonch District. Earlier, on May 26, 2017, the Army foiled
a Pakistan Army Border Action Team (BAT) attack along
the LoC in the Uri sector of Baramulla District, killing
two BAT personnel. According to reports, the BAT team
had penetrated 400 metres beyond the LoC. During the course
of the week, between May 20 and May 27, 2017, the SFs
eliminated at least 13 terrorists in J&K.
According
to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism
Portal (SATP), at least 60 terrorists have already
been killed during the first four months and 28 days of
the current year (data till May 28, 2017). During the
corresponding period of the previous year, SFs had eliminated
53 terrorists. Significantly, this is the highest number
of terrorists killed in this period (the first four months
and 28 days of the year) since 2010, when at least 115
terrorists were killed in this interregnum.
SFs have
upped the ante against the terrorists after suffering
increasing losses through 2016, more so in the second
half of the year, as well as in the current year. The
88 SF fatalities recorded in 2016 were the highest in
this category, on year on year basis, since 2009, when
90 personnel were killed. SFs have already lost 25 personnel
in the current year, thus far. During the corresponding
period of 2016, fatalities in this category stood at 15.
It was way back in 2010 that the SFs had lost a higher
number of personnel, 37, during the same period (the first
four months and 28 days of the year).
The increased
engagement between SFs and terrorists on the ground is
indicative of the deteriorating situation in the State
in evidence since the second half of 2016. J&K has
already recorded 25 fatalities among civilians, the highest
number during this period since 2008, at 26. It is pertinent,
however, that despite the surge in overall fatalities,
as compared to 2015, 2016 recorded the lowest number of
civilian fatalities, 14, since the insurgency began in
1998. Nine of 14 civilian fatalities recorded in 2016
were in the second half of the year, as were 58 of the
total 88 SF fatalities.
The killing
of the HM 'commander' Burhan Wani in an encounter on July
8, 2016, and the subsequent orchestration of street violence
– backed by Pakistan-based terrorist formations and covert
Pakistani support – has had a cascading effect on the
State. Flawed policies and the abject failure of the state
in controlling the spiraling violence have created ample
opportunities for inimical forces to broaden radical and
extremist mobilization and violence. According the State
Police Crime Branch data, 3,404 cases of rioting were
recorded in 2016, as compared to 1,157 such cases in 2015,
an increase of 194.2 per cent. As SAIR has highlighted
earlier, such 'uprisings' have had direct Pakistani support
in the past, and similar connections and connotations
are in evidence in the present cycle of mobilization.
Indeed, according to a release dated May 19, 2017, the
National Investigation Agency (NIA) has registered a preliminary
inquiry into the Pakistani role, noting:
National Investigation Agency has registered a PE
(Preliminary Enquiry) into the funding of Hurriyat
leaders, namely Syed Ali Shah Geelani, Naeem Khan,
Farooq Ahmed Dar, Gazi Javed Baba and others in
J&K by Hafiz Muhammed Saeed and other Pakistan
based terrorists and agencies to carry out subversive
activities in Kashmir and for damaging public property,
stone pelting on the security forces, burning of
schools and other Government establishments. The
NIA has also taken cognizance of the news item related
to the recording of conversations between the reporter
and leaders of the separatist groups operating in
Kashmir valley, by India Today TV, on 16.05.2017
in this regard.
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According
to a March 29, 2017, report, some fugitive stone pelters
identified as Zakir Ahmad Bhat, Farooq Ahmad Lone, Wasim
Ahmed Khan, Mushtaq Veeri and Ibrahim Khan made some startling
confessions – from being on the payroll of their underground
masters to carry out deadly attacks on security forces,
public servants and property in the troubled region –
in their conversations with India Today TV’s
‘undercover’ reporters. "It's Rs 5,000-Rs 7,000 (a
month) and clothes. Sometimes shoes as well," Bhat
said in the sting tapes, when asked whether he was paid
to pelt stones at SF personnel. He, however, did not disclose
the identity of his financers: "We will die but won't
reveal their names. It's the question of our bread and
butter."
Terror
funding from Pakistan has also been highlighted on numerous
occasions in the past. Most recently, for instance, a
Government of India release stated,
The Central Government had received information
about illegal transfer of funds from Pakistan to
India through import of California Almonds via cross-LOC
mechanisms through Trade Facilitation Centers (TFC)
in Jammu and Kashmir. Keeping in view the gravity
of the matter the Central Government directed the
NIA to take up investigation of this case. The NIA
has registered the case as RC-17/2016/NIA/DLI on
16.12.2016.
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Meanwhile,
according to data provided by the Union Ministry of Home
Affairs (UMHA), at least 88 local youth joined terrorism
in 2016, mostly after the Burhan Wani killing. According
to media reports, another 16 local youth have joined terrorism
in the current year. Wani was the man responsible for
reversing the declining trend of local recruitment in
the Valley. According to UMHA data, the number of locals
joining militancy had declined from 54 in 2010 to 23 in
2011 further down to 21 in 2012 and just 16 in 2013. In
2014, the number of locals joining militancy increased
to 53 and reached at 66 in 2015.
Having
succeeded to an extent in fuelling fire in the State with
the support of its cohorts within India, Islamabad simultaneously
increased its activities along the LoC and International
Border (IB). According to UMHA data, there were at least
371 infiltration attempts by the terrorists trained by
Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) from across
the border in 2016, as against 121 such attempts through
2015, a more than threefold increase. Such attempts had
declined sharply in 2015, in comparison to 2014, when
there were 222. There have been 47 such attempts in 2017,
thus far. The number of terrorists who were forced to
return to the Pakistani side rose to 217 in 2016, as against
41 in 2015. More worryingly, there were at least 119
estimated net (successful) infiltrations recorded through
2016, as against 33 in 2015. These infiltration attempts
most often occur under cover firing by Pakistan Rangers
or Army personnel. UMHA data also indicates a continuing
increase in the number of ceasefire violations by Pakistan,
at 449 in 2016, as against 405 in 2015.
Not surprisingly,
the estimated number of active terrorists in the State
has increased. According to varying media reports, there
are presently an estimated 500-plus active terrorists
in the State – 320 locals and 180 foreigners; as against
about 179 – 143 locals and 36 foreigners – prior to Wani’s
killing in July 2016.
Despite
the deterioration consequent upon these various factors,
there are some early signs of improvement in the law and
order situation in the State. According to the Month-wise
details of Law & Order incidents since July 8, 2016,
provided by UMHA, the number of such incidents has declined
considerably.
Month
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July,
2016
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August,
2016
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September,
2016
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October,
2016
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November,
2016
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December,
2016
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January,
2017
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February,
2017
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March,
2017
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No.
of incidents
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820
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747
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535
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179
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73
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36
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05
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49
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27
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According
to partial data compiled by the SATP, the number of such
incidents declined further to 22 in April 2017, though
May registered a spike, at 41. Nevertheless, the situation
appears to be coming under reasonable control in comparison
to earlier months.
For the
time being SFs have done their bit in restoring the law
and order in the State, as expected, despite tremendous
odds – both at the operational and at the political leadership
level. Sustaining such improvement, however, lies entirely
in the hands of the political class, both at the Centre
and in the State. Unfortunately, there is little evidence
of the necessary political sagacity needed to bring J&K
out of its orchestrated turbulence and restore it on the
trajectory to the greater
stabilization that was visible in
before the present cycle of disturbances.
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Jharkhand:
Internecine Carnage
Deepak
Kumar Nayak
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On May
21, 2017, seven cadres of the Tritiya Prastuti Committee
(TPC),
a splinter group of the Communist Party of India-Maoist
(CPI-Maoist),
were killed in an exchange of fire between two of its
own factions in the Keredari area of Hazaribagh District.
Three of the slain cadres were identified as TPC ‘zonal
commander’ Sagar Ganzu, ‘area commander’ Manish Mahato
and ‘commander’ Jhonson. One severed head recovered from
the spot is yet to be identified. The remaining three
bodies were taken away by the rebels. The Police team
recovered some empty cartridges, Naxal [Left-Wing Extremism
(LWE)] uniforms, a blood-stained carpet and other items
from the spot. Bhimsen Tuti, Deputy Inspector General
of Police (DIG), North Chhotanagpur Division, disclosed
that the group fought following a dispute on the sharing
of money extorted from construction companies.
On April
17, 2017, a villager, Shiv Nath Yadav (55), and his son,
Guddu Yadav (28), were killed by over 20 armed CPI-Maoist
cadres at village Kulheya under Harihurganj Police Station
in Palamu District. The two were suspected by CPI-Maoist
cadres to be TPC supporters.
On March
24, 2017, three TPC cadres were killed in an internecine
clash at Seeta Chuan under the Mohammadganj Police Station
in Palamau District. One of the dead was identified as
‘zonal commander’ Ajay Yadav, carried a reward of INR
500,000 on his head. The other two were identified as
‘area commanders’ Krishna Kharwar and Ravindra Mahto.
Police recovered one AK-47 rifle, one INSAS (Indian Small
Arms System) assault rifle, one semi automatic rifle,
one .303 rifle, along with 630 live bullets, 23 magazines,
11 cell phones, several Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs),
50 meters of Codex wire, and six back packs.
According
to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism
Portal (SATP), out of a total of 15 LWEs killed during
the current year, at least 13 were killed in fratricidal
incidents (data till May 28, 2017). During the corresponding
period of 2016, out of a total of 14 LWEs killed, at least
six deaths occurred in such incidents. Through 2016, fratricidal
incidents were responsible for 18 out of a total of 40
LWE cadre deaths.
Indeed,
since 2010 in Jharkhand fratricidal killings have been
a major trend. Out of a total of 309
LWE fatalities, at least 133 were
killed in such incidents, a staggering 43.04 per cent.
More worryingly, the number of such killings witnessed
a surge in 2016, even as the overall percentage also increased
– accounting for 29.72 per cent in 2015, 45.0 per cent
in 2016, and 86.66 per cent in 2017 (data till May 28).
These internecine
clashes have also affected the overall LWE situation in
the State. According to the SATP database, there were
a total of 35 deaths [18 civilians, two Security Force
(SF) personnel, and 15 LWEs] in LWE-violence related deaths
in the current year, as compared to 33 (nine civilians,
seven SF personnel, and 17 LWEs) during the corresponding
period of the previous year. Overall fatalities in such
violence stood at 81 (31 civilians, 10 SF personnel, and
40 LWEs) through 2016, as compared to 58 (16 civilians,
five SF personnel, and 37 LWEs) in 2015, an increase of
39.65 per cent.
Significantly,
civilian fatalities, which had declined considerably from
48 in 2014 to an all time low of 16 in 2015, almost doubled
and at 31 in 2016. During the first four months and 26
days of the current year, the State has already recorded
18 civilian deaths in such violence. Significantly, splinter
groups of the CPI-Maoist have been responsible for the
larger proportion of this increase, rather than the parent
formation. While all 16 civilians’ fatalities were inflicted
by CPI-Maoist cadres in 2015, splinter groups were responsible
for 18 of 31 civilian deaths recorded in 2016, while 13
were killed by CPI-Maoist cadres. In the current year,
splinter groups have already killed five of the 18 civilian
victims of such violence.
Civilian
Fatalities in LWE Violence in Jharkhand 2010-2017*
Year
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Civilians
killed by CPI-Maoist (1)
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Civilians
killed by splinter groups (2)
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Total
Civilians killed by LWEs (1+2)4
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2010
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55
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16
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71
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2011
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58
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21
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79
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2012
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25
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23
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48
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2013
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26
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22
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48
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2014
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30
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18
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48
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2015
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16
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0
|
16
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2016
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13
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18
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31
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2016
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13
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5
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18
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Total
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236
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123
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359
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Source:
SATP, *Data till May 28, 2017.
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Moreover,
out of 18 major incidents (each involving three or more
killings) of civilian killings recorded in the State since
2010, splinter groups have been responsible for at least
seven. The most prominent among those included:
September
26, 2016: Three persons were killed and four were injured
when People’s Liberation Front of India (PLFI, a CPI-Maoist
splinter) cadres, opened random fire at a gathering in
a village in Khunti District.
March 17,
2016: At least four persons working on a road construction
site were killed allegedly by PLFI cadres in a village
under the Basia Police Station limits of Gumla District.
November
3, 2014: Suspected PLFI cadres gunned down seven persons,
reportedly members of Shanti Sena, a local outfit formed
to maintain peace and brotherhood in Gumla District.
May 16,
2011: Four persons of a family were killed by PLFI cadres
at Dakeya village in Okba panchayat (village level
local self government institution) under Basia Police
Station in Gumla District. The PLFI cadres tied their
hands and took them to Karisokra Forest where their throats
were slit.
There are
around 19
LWE groups operating in the State,
including CPI-Maoist, PLFI, TPC, Tritiya Prastuti Committee-1
(TPC-1), a breakaway group of TPC, Jharkhand Janmukti
Parishad (JJMP), Jharkhand Sangharsh Jan Mukti Morcha
(JSJMM), and Jharkhand Prastuti Committee (JPC). PLFI
is among the largest splinter groups of CPI-Maoist in
Jharkhand. A group of dissidents claimed that the Maoists
were unfair to cadres, and had parted ways to form the
PLFI in 2006. Likewise, TPC was formed in 2002 after a
number of CPI-Maoist cadres had walked out of their parent
outfit complaining of the domination of the Yadav caste
in the decision-making process of CPI-Maoist.
Among all
these splinter groups PLFI is the biggest threat. Indeed,
subsequent to the encounter on November 29, 2016, in which
the founder and chief of PLFI, Dinesh Gope, was injured
on Pangur-Bintuka road in Simdega District, Superintendent
of Police (SP), Rajiv Ranjan Singh, on December 1, 2016,
observed, "PLFI is one among the last LWE groups
active in the region and the Tuesday (November 29, 2016)
encounter comes as a huge blow to their morale here (in
Simdega)."
At a time
when LWE violence in the State is witnessing a surge,
with the major group, CPI-Maoist, also escalating activities,
the menace of splinter groups and the resultant turf-war
are alarming. Meanwhile, in a major blow to the CPI-Maoist,
on May 14, 2017, the group’s Jharkhand 'regional committee
secretary', Kundan Pahan, surrendered before the Police
in Ranchi District. Pahan carried a reward of INR 1.5
million on his head and was facing a total of 128 cases.
State Chief
Minister Raghubar Das called for more sharing of intelligence
among LWE-affected States at the meeting between the Centre
and the States affected by Left-Wing Extremism in New
Delhi on May 8, 2017. Detailing the challenges before
Jharkhand, Das further noted that the Government had mounted
pressure on the Maoists and their splinter proliferating
splinters. This is an objective that must be sustained
with continuous operational pressures to ensure that Jharkhand,
for along among the worst LWE afflicted States, does not
see a resurgence of Maoist violence and the vicious trend
of extortion and criminality by proliferating splinter
formations.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
May
22-28, 2017
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Civilians
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Security
Force Personnel
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Terrorists/Insurgents
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Total
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INDIA
|
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Assam
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0
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0
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1
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1
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Jammu and
Kashmir
|
2
|
0
|
10
|
12
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Manipur
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1
|
0
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0
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1
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Left-Wing
Extremism
|
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Chhattisgarh
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1
|
0
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0
|
1
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Jharkhand
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1
|
0
|
0
|
1
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Total (INDIA)
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5
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0
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11
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16
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PAKISTAN
|
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Balochistan
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1
|
0
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1
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2
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FATA
|
4
|
1
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3
|
8
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Sindh
|
0
|
0
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1
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1
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Total (PAKISTAN)
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|
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Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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