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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 15, No. 49, June 5, 2017
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Northeast:
Persistent Anxieties
Giriraj
Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
In the
Northeast Security Review meeting, presided over by Union
Home Minister (UHM) Rajnath Singh, held at New Delhi on
May 16, 2017, security agencies demanded a greater presence
of intelligence and Security Force (SF) personnel in five
contiguous Districts of Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland
along the Indo-Myanmar border. An unnamed official who
participated in the meeting disclosed, "We have apprised
the Home Minister of the security situation in the Northeast
and informed him that all militant activities are being
controlled from Arunachal's Tirap, Changlang and Longding
Districts; and Nagaland's Mon and Tuensang Districts,".
During the meeting it was emphasized that these five districts
had emerged as the hub of the ‘last remaining militants’
in the Northeast.
According
to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism
Portal (SATP), these five Districts have accounted
for a total of 310 fatalities (30 civilians, 27 SF personnel,
253 militants) since January 1, 2000, of which at least
two (both militants) have been recorded in the current
year.
Of these
five Districts, Mon accounted for 128 fatalities (six
civilians, 13 SF personnel, 109 militants), followed by
Tirap with 85 fatalities (one civilian, 11 SF personnel,
73 militants), Tuensung with 61 fatalities (18 civilians,
and 43 militants), Changlang with 32 fatalities (five
civilians, three SF personnel, 24 militants) and Longding
with four fatalities (all militants)
Moreover,
nine contiguous Districts – Charaideo (formed on August
15, 2015 by bifurcating Sibsagar), Dibrugarh, Jorhat,
Sibsagar, Tinsukia, Kiphere, Longleng, Mokukchang and
Zunhebato – around these five districts (Arunachal's Tirap,
Changlang and Longding; and Nagaland's Mon and Tuensang)
together accounted for at least 635 fatalities (257 civilians,
53 SF personnel, 324 militants) since January 1, 2000.
Of these 635 fatalities, at least six (two SF personnel
and four militants) have been recorded in the current
year.
Among these
nine Districts, Tinsukia alone accounted for 302 fatalities
(147 civilians, 32 SF personnel, 123 militants), followed
by Dibrugarh with 116 fatalities (62 civilians, 8 SF personnel,
46 militants), Zunheboto with 88 fatalities (13 civilians,
and 75 militants), Sibsagar with 39 fatalities (13 civilians,
four SF personnel, 22 militants),Kiphere accounted for
36 fatalities (seven civilians, five SF personnel, 24
militants), Jorhat with 30 fatalities (12 civilians, four
SF personnel, 14 militants), Mokukchang with 22 fatalities
(three civilians and 19 militants), and Longleng with
two fatalities (both militants).
Overall
fatalities in these 14 Districts, since January 1, 2000,
thus total 945 (287 civilians, 80 SF personnel, and 578
militants). Total fatalities in the entire northeast during
the same period amounted to 12,400 (5,160 civilians, 1,143
SF personnel, 6,097 militants). These fatalities were
reported from over 75 Districts in seven States.
This small
region around of 14 Districts that constitute the surviving
‘hub’ of militant activity in the Northeast account for
7.62 per cent of total insurgency-linked fatalities recorded
in the seven States of northeast since January 1, 2000.
The five
‘hub’ Districts - Tirap, Changlang, Longding, Mon and
Tuensang Districts – together constitute an area of about
11,601 square kilometres (within a total area of 255,094
square kilometers in the seven insurgency afflicted States
of the Northeast) and are sandwiched between the Indian
States of Assam and Nagaland and, at the other end, Myanmar.
These Districts are strategically important as they facilitate
relatively easy infiltration and exfilitration for insurgents
operating in the entire northeast from the loosely governed
Sagiang Division of neighbouring Myanmar.
These routes
have gained enhanced significance for the Nationalist
Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K),
United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I),
leading groups behind the militant consortium United
National Liberation Front of West East South Asia
(UNLFWESA), to mostly to attack the SFs. These routes
were traditionally dominated by NSCN-K which has, since
its unilateral abrogation
of the Cease Fire Agreement on [March
27, 2015] escalated violence against SFs. Further, since
coming to power in 2009, the Sheikh Hasina-led Government
in Bangladesh has denied safe havens in Bangladesh to
Assam-based proscribed groups such as ULFA-I, National
Democratic Front of Bodoland-IK Songbijit faction (NDFB-IKS),
Kamatapur Liberation Organisation (KLO)
and others, making them almost exclusively dependent on
Myanmar routes.
According
to a February 4, 2017, report, ULFA-I has set up a new
‘general headquarters’ at Hakiyot, a densely forested
area of around 25-30 kilometres inside Myanmar, to replace
its existing ‘general headquarters’ at Vangi. The Hakiyot
camp is located opposite Longding [Arunachal Pradesh]
and Mon [Nagaland] Districts. The ULFA-I camp was established
after the militant Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in Myanmar
set a deadline for the outfit to remove its camps from
Vangi in the Yunnan province of China, along the Sino-Myanmar
frontier. The ULFA-I has now shifted from Arunachal's
Changlang and Tirap Districts to Longding, and its cadres
now cross over to Longding either directly from Myanmar
or through Mon, entering Assam either from Longding into
Charaideo and Sivasagar Districts or through other eastern
Arunachal Districts. [KIA is the ‘military wing’ of the
Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), a ‘political group’
representing ethnic Kachin fighting the Myanmarese Government
in northern Myanmar.]
Governments
– both at the respective State and central levels – are
now planning to concentrate more on these areas for further
improvement in the security situation in the northeast.
On March
9, 2017, Arunachal Pradesh Home Minister Kumar Waii disclosed
to the State Assembly that the State Government has appointed
1,570 Police personnel, out of 1,949 sanctioned posts,
under the Centre's special package for insurgency-hit
Tirap, Changlang and Longding Districts. A total of 36
sub-inspectors, 1,530 constables, three head constables
(traffic) and one carrier were appointed under the special
package. "These posts were sanctioned for opening
11 new Police Stations and upgradation of nine existing
Police Stations in the Districts," Waii stated, adding
that recruitment for the remaining 379 vacant posts would
be carried out ‘soon’. Earlier, on February 20, 2017,
UHM Rajnath Singh, while announcing a special package
for the three Districts, had noted, “The special package
for Tirap, Changlang and Longding Districts will also
include creation of new posts, purchase of vehicles and
equipment for Police,”
There is
also a proposal to include the three Arunachal Districts
into the fold of the sixth schedule of the Indian Constitution.
On March 7, 2017, Chief Minister Prema Khandu, in response
to a question asked by former Chief Minister Nabam Tuki,
informed the State Assembly that the State Government
would write to the Centre to expedite the process of the
creation of the Autonomous District Councils of Tirap,
Changlang and Longding. It is pertinent to recall that,
the Arunachal Pradesh Legislative Assembly had passed
a resolution on February 16, 2004, that Arunachal Pradesh
should be included in the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution
of India to enable creation of Autonomous District Councils.
It passed similar resolutions in 2007 and 2012 as well.
Subsequently, on December 11, 2013, the State Cabinet
approved the taking up of a proposal for the creation
of Autonomous District Councils with Government of India
as per the State Assembly resolution. Nocte, Wancho, Tangsa,
Tutsa and Ollo are the principal tribal groups that inhabit
these Districts. Presently, the provisions of the Sixth
Schedule of Indian Constitution apply to the administration
of the tribal dominated areas of Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura
and Mizoram. Since the late 1990’s, there has been a demand
for the formation of a separate Union Territory comprising
Tirap and Changlang.
On March
18, 2016, the Nagaland Assembly passed the Nagaland Backward
Tribes Commission Bill 2016, to establish a commission
for backward tribes in the State to safeguard their rights.
The Commission is intended to focus on the six backward
tribes of Eastern Nagaland. The undivided District of
Tuensung [now consisting of Mon, Longleng and Kiphere,
besides the parent Tuensung District], which is inhabited
mainly by the Chang, the Konyak, Sangtam, Khiamniungan,
Yimchungru and Phom tribes, remain backward on most socio-economic
indices.
The insurgency
in the Northeast has witnessed a tremendous decline, with
overall fatalities falling to 160 in 2016, the lowest
since 1992. The reasons range from divisions within the
ranks of militant groups, loss of Bhutan and Bangladesh
as militant sanctuaries, and progressive negotiations
between the Government and many of the active extremist
formations in the region. However, major insurgent groups
including ULFA-I, NDFB-IKS, and NSCN-K continue to operate
from Myanmar. Further, the ‘unification’ of these militant
groups under the UNLFWESA banner is a cause for concern,
particularly in view of the porous Indo-Myanmar border
which facilitates their operations. It is, consequently,
crucial that these border areas, which lack even basic
infrastructure like roads, are strategically developed
both for the economic well being of the population, as
well as the efficiency of security deployments and systems,
so that these frontiers are better protected.
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Guarded
Progress
S.
Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On May
14, 2017, after an interregnum of 20 years, the first
round of local level elections were conducted in 34 Districts
of Province Nos. 3, 4 and 6, to elect representatives
in 283 local level institutions, including four metropolitan
cities, one sub-metropolitan city, 92 municipalities and
186 rural municipalities. 71 per cent voters took part
in these elections. The last local elections in Nepal
were held in May 1997.
Notwithstanding
a few incidents of disruption and violence in some Districts,
voting concluded peacefully and in a free and fair manner.
One Nepali Congress (NC) cadre died in Police firing during
a clash with cadres of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified
Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), in the Melung Rural Municipality
of Dolakha District. Another person was killed in Police
firing when cadres of the Netra Bikram Chand-led Communist
Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist) tried to capture ballot
boxes in the Naraharinath Rural Municipality of Kalikot
District; three others were injured in the incident. Separately,
a CPN-UML activist was beaten to death with a stick inside
an under-construction house in the Pipalbhanjyang area
of Dhading District. In the meantime, in the Nilkantha
Municipality of Dhading District, four persons were injured
in a clash between NC and CPN-UML activists.
The second
phase of local level elections for the remaining 41 Districts
in Provinces 1, 2, 5 and 7 was supposed to be held on
June 14, 2017, after the number of local levels in the
Tarai
region had been revised. However,
discussions between Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal
and leaders of the Rastriya Janata Party Nepal (RJPN),
at the former's official residence in Kathmandu on May
15, 2017, resulted in a stalemate, as RJPN leaders argued
that the party could not participate in the second phase
of elections unless their demands were addressed. RJPN
was formed on April 20, 2017, by merging six prominent
Madhesi parties, including the Tarai Madhes Democratic
Party (TMDP), Sadbhavana Party (SP), National Madhes Socialist
Party (NMSP), Madhesi People's Rights Forum-Republican
(MPRF-R), Tarai Madhes Sadhbhavana Party (TMSP) and Federal
Sadhbhavana Party (FSP), The Madhesi parties have been
demanding an amendment to the Constitution adopted
on September 20, 2015, changing the demarcation of Districts
and constituencies before the holding of local level elections.
Once again,
on May 17, 2017, RJPN leaders met Prime Minister Dahal
and NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba separately and urged
them to create a conducive environment for the second
phase of local polls. Accusing the Government of not showing
sufficient sincerity in the fulfillment of their demands,
RJPN announced a boycott of the second phase of the local
polls on May 26, 2017. The party also unveiled a series
of protest programs with the aim to disrupt the polls
slated for June 14. Frustrated, the cadres of RJPN staged
a baton rally at Gaur of Rautahat District on May 28,
2017, to protest the scheduled second round, claiming
that the local bodies had not been formed in proportion
to the ethnic division of populations and the Constitution
needed to be amended.
Meanwhile,
speaking at the anniversary celebration programme of Janakpur,
the capital of Dhanusa District on May 21, 2017, Prime
Minister Dahal noted “The Constitution has institutionalized
many achievements of past political struggles. There are
still some issues to be addressed, and successfully conducting
the local level election is the current struggle. As the
first phase of local polls has gone well, it’s now the
duty of all forces that support and seek change to ensure
that the second phase is also held successfully.” On the
same day, Prime Minister Dahal talking to media persons
in Janakpur, observed that the elections in Madhes would
be like a festival, as more votes would be cast in Madhes
as compared to the Hill areas, as the Madhesi people were
eager to participate in the elections. The Prime Minister
also gave an assurance that the elections would address
some of the demands of the Madhes people, while other
demands would be addressed through constitutional amendments.
Significantly,
a Cabinet meeting held at Prime Minister Dahal’s residence
in Baluwatar, Kathmandu, on May 23, 2017, decided to increase
the number of local levels in the Tarai region by 22.
The Cabinet decided to increase three local levels each
in Sarlahi, Nawalparasi, Rupandehi and Kapilvastu; two
each in Sunsari and Rautahat; and one each in Saptari,
Parsa, Dhanusha, Bara, Kailali and Banke Districts. With
this, the total number of local levels in the country
reached 766 (existing 744 + newly created 22). The Cabinet
also decided to upgrade Biratnagar and Birgunj sub-metropolitan
cities to metropolitan cities, and to designate 24 rural
municipalities as municipalities. Among the rural municipalities
that were upgraded, 11 were in Rautahat; three in Mahottari;
two each in Jhapa, Rupandehi and Banke; and one each in
Siraha, Dhanusha, Bara and Kailali Districts.
On May
29, 2017, in an effort to bring the Madhes-based parties
on board, the Government re-scheduled the local polls
to June 23, 2017. However, on May 30, 2017, the representatives
of the Muslim community submitted a memorandum to Prime
Minister Dahal demanding to reconsider the rescheduled
date of the second round, as the Muslim’s festival of
Eid ul Fitr was falling on the election date. Consequently,
the Government rescheduled the second phase to June 28,
2017.
However,
the main opposition party, the CPN-UML, in a Press Release
issued after the meeting of the party’s standing committee
on May 17, 2017, urged the Government and the Election
Commission (EC) to promptly hold the second round of polls.
The party further stated that the proposed amendments
to the Constitution were not acceptable, and that changes
in the local bodies would certainly create confusion.
Further, CPN-UML obstructed proceedings in Parliament
on May 26, 2017, demanding that the Government roll back
its decision to add 22 local levels in the Tarai Districts.
Once again, on May 31 and June 1, 2017, CPN-UML obstructed
parliamentary proceedings, demanding the vote count for
Bharatpur Metropolitan City in Chitwan District be resumed
at the earliest. On May 29, 2017, the District Election
Office, Chitwan had halted the count shortly after cadres
of the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist
Centre) deputed to assist the count
tore up ballot papers. Later, Chief Returning Officer
Kabi Prasad Neupane found that, of the 2,897 votes cast
in Ward Number 19, as many as 1,809 votes had already
been counted. 998 papers had been torn in such a way that
they could not be counted. 90 were found to have been
completely destroyed.
Separately,
arguing that the haphazard creation of more local units
could collapse the federal set up and prompt provincial
and central Governments to withdraw rights given to local
units, Balananda Paudel, Coordinator of the Local Body
Restructuring Commission (LBRC) warned, on May 25, 2017,
“More local units mean more burden on taxpayers as they
have to pay more tax for local governments. Similarly,
while local governments are becoming unfeasible as their
resources are limited, local governments in small area
become less efficient as they cannot gain economy of scale
in service delivery.” The Commission had recommended that
the Government form 719 units, as against the 744 established.
In the
meantime, in a crucial development signaling an emerging
maturity in Nepalese politics, there was a change of guard
at Kathmandu. As per the “gentleman’s agreement” between
the NC and CPN-Maoist Centre before the formation of the
Coalition Government in August 2016, Prime Minister Dahal
announced his resignation from the Premiership on May
24, 2017, paving the way for the election of a new NC
Prime Minister. On June 3, 2017, proposed by Dahal, NC
President Sher Bahadur Deuba filed his nomination at the
Parliament Secretariat for the post of Prime Minister.
His candidacy was supported by NC senior leader Ram Chandra
Paudel, Nepal Democratic Forum Chairman Bijaya Kumar Gachhadar,
Prem Bahadur Singh of Samajbadi Janata Party, Kumar Khadka
of Akhanda Nepal Party and Jayadev Joshi of CPN-United.
The election for the new Prime Minister was supposed to
take place in the Parliament at 11:00 am on June 4, 2017,
but this did not happen, as Speaker Onsari Gharti Magar
adjourned the House till 1:00pm of June 6, 2017, as the
main opposition party, CPN-UML, which has been stalling
House proceedings over the Bharatpur vote counting, sought
two days for a negotiated settlement.
It is to
Dahal’s credit that he successfully conducted the first
phase of local elections on May 14, despite multiple hiccups
and hurdles. Though this is just the beginning, the completion
of the first phase after two decades without elections,
put an end to the uncertainty surrounding the three tier
elections that are to be concluded within the stipulated
date of January 21, 2018, and the implementation of the
new Constitution before the transformed Parliament automatically
dissolves after this deadline.
Nevertheless,
CPN-UML, which is seeking to consolidate its ultra-nationalist
image, is bound to oppose the Constitution Amendment Bill
ceding the Madhesi demands, and can be expected to play
the spoil sport; blocking Government attempts to reorganize
grassroots units in the Tarai region in proportion to
the population. While there are some positives in Nepal’s
politics, the fractious relations of the past are far
from settled.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
May
29- June 4, 2017
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Civilians
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Security
Force Personnel
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Terrorists/Insurgents
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Total
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BANGLADEH
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Islamist Terrorism
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0
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0
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1
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1
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Left-wing
Extremism
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0
|
0
|
2
|
2
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BANGLADESH
(Total)
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5
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0
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3
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3
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INDIA
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Jammu and
Kashmir
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0
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2
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6
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8
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Manipur
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0
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0
|
1
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1
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Nagaland
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1
|
0
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0
|
1
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Left-Wing
Extremism
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Chhattisgarh
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0
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0
|
1
|
1
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Odisha
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0
|
1
|
1
|
2
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Total (INDIA)
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1
|
3
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9
|
13
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PAKISTAN
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Balochistan
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2
|
1
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12
|
15
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KP
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5
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0
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0
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5
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Total (PAKISTAN)
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|
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Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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