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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 16, No. 13, September 25, 2017
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Chhattisgarh:
Insecure in Sukma
Deepak
Kumar Nayak
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On September
21, 2017, Security Forces (SFs) killed an ‘area commander’
of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist),
identified as Podiyam Bheema, during an encounter in the
forests between Pidmel and Palamdgu villages under Polampalli
Police Station limits in Sukma District. SFs later recovered
the dead body of the slain Maoist along with three country-made
firearms, explosives and other materials. The slain Maoist
was handling operations in at least 10 villages in the
area.
On September
18, 2017, two CPI-Maoist cadres were killed in an encounter
in the Rasantong forest area of Sukma District. The encounter
ensued when SFs on a search operation were fired upon
by the Maoists. SFs later recovered two guns, 13 detonators,
a radio set, a wireless set, codex wire, batteries, solar
plates and some other material from the encounter site.
On August
13, 2017, SFs killed two Maoists, including a ‘deputy
platoon commander’ identified as Podiyam Sunna, during
an exchange of fire between Maoists and the SFs under
the Kistaram Police Station in Sukma District. SFs also
recovered a gun and a country-made pistol from the spot.
On June
24, 2017, a CPI-Maoist 'commander', identified as Korsa
Mahesh, was killed in an encounter in the Tondamarka Forest
area of Sukma District. The slain Maoist carried a reward
of INR 800,000 on his head.
On April
24, 2017, a Maoist cadre was killed in the Burkapal area
of Kalapattar in Sukma District.
On January
27, 2017, a Maoist cadre was killed in an exchange of
fire with SFs in a dense patch of forest under Fulbagdi
Police Station limits in Sukma District. SFs recovered
one .303 rifle from the encounter site.
These eight
fatalities among Maoists have been recorded in Sukma District
in the current year, thus far (data till September 24,
2017). On the other hand, SFs have lost at least 41 of
their own personnel in four incidents. With this, the
Maoists have managed to restore their dominance, registering
a staggering 1:5.12 kill ratio in their favour in the
current year, after conceding their superiority marginally
in 2015 and to a large extent through 2016. During the
corresponding period of the previous year, SFs had eliminated
at least 21 Maoists while suffering 10 losses, yielding
a positive kill ratio of 1:21. Through 2016, the ratio
was 1:3.54 in favour of the SFs. The ratio stood at 1:1.07,
marginally in favour of SFs in 2015.
Fatalities
in Sukma District and Chhattisgarh: 2012*- 2017**
Year
|
Sukma
|
Chhattisgarh
|
Sukma's
share in % of Total killing
|
Civilians
|
SFs
|
Maoists
|
Total
|
Civilians
|
SFs
|
Maoists
|
Total
|
2012
|
6
|
8
|
2
|
16
|
26
|
36
|
46
|
108
|
14.81
|
2013
|
26
|
18
|
12
|
56
|
48
|
45
|
35
|
128
|
43.75
|
2014
|
3
|
35
|
3
|
41
|
25
|
55
|
33
|
113
|
36.28
|
2015
|
9
|
13
|
14
|
36
|
34
|
41
|
45
|
120
|
30
|
2016
|
10
|
11
|
39
|
60
|
38
|
36
|
133
|
207
|
28.98
|
2017
|
4
|
41
|
8
|
53
|
21
|
56
|
57
|
134
|
39.55
|
Total
|
58
|
126
|
78
|
262
|
192
|
269
|
349
|
810
|
32.34
|
Source:
SATP, *Data till September 24, 2016.
* Sukma carved out of Dantewada on January 16, 2012.
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Since its
formation on January 16, 2012, the Sukma District has
recorded more SF losses – 126 – as compared to the Maoists,
at 78, establishing a kill ratio of 1:1.61 in favour of
the Maoists. According to the South Asia Terrorism
Portal (SATP) database, Sukma is one of seven Districts
(among 28 from where fatalities among both SFs and Maoists
have been reported since January 16, 2012) in which SFs
have suffered greater losses as compared to the Maoists.
Moreover, Sukma has recorded the maximum number of SF
fatalities, at 126, for any District across India, since
January 16, 2012; with Bijapur, also in Chhattisgarh,
standing a distant second, with 52; followed by Gadchiroli
in Maharashtra with 39 fatalities.
Significantly,
the worst
ever attack by the Maoists targeting
SFs, across all Maoist affected regions in India, had
taken place at Tarmetla village near Chintalnad under
the Konta Block, one of the seven Blocks of the undivided
Dantewada District, which is now among one of the three
tehsils (revenue units) of Sukma District. The
incident in which 75 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF)
personnel and one State Policeman were killed occurred
on April 6, 2010.
Incidentally,
the two worst attacks targeting SFs in the current year
across all Maoist affected regions in India, were carried
out in Sukma. On April 24, 2017, when Maoists killed at
least 25 CRPF personnel and injured another six in an
ambush at Kalapattar in the Burkapal
area of Sukma District; and the March
11, 2017, incident when the Maoists killed 12 CRPF personnel
and injured another four when they ambushed a Road Opening
Party (ROP) in the forests near Kottacheru village under
the Bhejji Police Station in Sukma District.
Meanwhile,
there is a significant dip in fatalities among civilians
in the current year, after these had risen in 2015 and
2016. Nevertheless, civilians in Sukma continue to live
in fear of the Maoists. In attempts to terrorise civilians,
the Maoists have abducted many and, in some cases, killed
them. On March 10, 2017, for instance, a former Sarpanch
(head of Panchayat, a local-self Government
institution), identified as Madvi Dula (55), was killed
by CPI-Maoist cadres after being abducted on March 9,
on suspicion of being a 'Police informer', in the Tokanpalli
Forest area under the Chintagufa Police Station in Sukma.
More recently, on September 16, 2017, a group of armed
Maoists abducted 10 villagers, including woman Sarpanch
Podiyam Muye and Deputy Sarpanch Podiyam Komal,
of Chintagufa village in Sukma District. Later, in the
night of September 20, 2017, the Maoists released all
of them, after subjecting them to a ‘jan adalat
(People’s Court)’, in which they were warned not to ‘help’
the administration in carrying out development activities
in remote areas. They were also threatened not to attend
meetings held by the District administration to address
grievances of villagers.
Unsurprisingly,
Sukma is listed among the 35 worst Naxal [Left
Wing Extremism (LWE)]-affected Districts identified by
the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), across the
country.
Sukma was
carved out of Dantewada as a separate District on January
16, 2012, and is spread over a geographical area of 5635.79
square kilometres, of which around 3,500 square kilometres
(more than 75 per cent of its total area) is under thick
forest cover. The forest cover, terrain and geography
of the District provide the Maoists distinct tactical
advantages, allowing them to establish disruptive dominance
over much of the area. In addition, the District abuts
the Maoist-afflicted Bastar, Bijapur and Dantewada Districts
of the State to the north and west; the Malkangiri District
of Odisha to the east; and the Khammam District of Telangana
to the South, making it more formidable challenge for
SFs in their hunt for the Maoists.
In a worrying
development, media reports published on September 9, 2017,
suggested that the ‘commander’ of the Maoists’ ‘Battalion
No.1’, Madvi Hidma (36), who was allegedly involved in
most of the major incidents in the District, including
the April 24, 2017, Burkapal
ambush, the May 25, 2013, Jeeram
Valley ambush, and the April 6, 2010,
Chintalnad
ambush, among others, has been promoted
to the Central Committee (CC) of the CPI-Maoist, the second
most powerful body of the outfit, after its ‘Politburo’.
Intelligence agencies are, however, reluctant to confirm
Hidma’s elevation in the absence of any documentary evidence
in Maoist publications or seized correspondence. Hidma
belongs to the Muria tribal community of the Bastar region
and was born at Purvati village in Sukma. His ascent reportedly
came as a reward for his successes in the fight against
SFs in the area, providing the lone ‘bright spot’ in an
otherwise murky battle field across the country where
the Maoists are facing several reverses,
including in their epicentre
of dominance in Chhattisgarh.
Recent,
albeit occasional, Maoist successes against SFs have provoked
strengthening State responses after the Burkapal debacle.
The Government has decided to deploy a fresh squad of
2,000 Commando Battalion for Resolute Action (CoBRA) personnel
in and around Sukma. Though the Central Government has
not disclosed actual strength of Central Armed Police
Force (CAPF) deployment in Maoist affected areas, varying
media reports indicate that around 44 CoBRA teams (of
the total 154) are deployed in Chhattisgarh for operations,
and all of them are in the Bastar region comprising seven
Districts – Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Kanker, Kondagaon,
Narayanpur and Sukma. In addition, 20,000 State Policemen
are deployed in the Bastar region. The SF leadership has
also reviewed the lapses
that facilitated recent debacles, and sources indicate
that tactical and administrative procedures are being
modified to ensure that such failures are not repeated
in future.
Sukma remains
one of the last surviving Maoist bastions in the country,
with much of their operational strength intact. The District
is among the most poorly connected and under-developed,
even by the Bastar Division’s low standards, and SFs confront
extraordinary difficulties operating in its tough terrain,
and in a population where the Maoist – and in particular,
Hidma’s personal – influence is substantial, and where
the Maoist intelligence networks is likely stronger than
that of the State.
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Pathways
to Resolution
S.
Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On September
18, 2017, the third and final phase of local level elections
was held for 136 local units including one metropolitan
city, three sub-metropolii, 73 municipalities and 59 rural
municipalities in the eight Districts of Province 2 in
Nepal. Of the 2,664,950 registered voters, 73 per cent
cast their votes. The voting concluded peacefully though
there were some reports of pre-poll and post-poll violence.
Pre-poll violence included:
On August
29, 2017, three Rastriya Janata Party Nepal (RJPN) cadres
were injured when they tried to obstruct an assembly of
Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML)
cadres in Janakpur Sub-Metropolis of Dhanusha District
On September
5, 2017, an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) was exploded
by elements from the Janatantrik Tarai Mukti Morcha (Krantikari)
at the CPN-UML mayoral candidate’s home in Lahan, Siraha
District.
After the
polling, on September 19, 2017, two cadres of the CPN-UML
were injured in a clash with the Nepali Congress (NC)
cadres at the vote counting center in Brindaban Municipality
of Rautahat District; and on September 20, 2017, a cadre
of RJPN was killed in a clash with cadres of NC in Katahariya
Municipality of Rautahat District in an election row.
After an
interregnum of 20 years, the first round of local level
elections had been conducted on May 14, 2017, in 34 Districts
of Province Nos. 3, 4 and 6, to elect representatives
in 283 local level institutions, including four metropolitan
cities, one sub-metropolitan city, 92 municipalities and
186 rural municipalities. 71 per cent of registered voters
took part in these elections. The last local elections
in Nepal had been held in May 1997.
The second
phase of local level elections was held on June 28, 2017,
for 334 local units including one metropolitan city, seven
sub-metropolitan cities, 111 municipalities and 215 rural
municipalities in 35 Districts of Province 1, 5 and 7.
73.69 per cent of voters cast their votes in the elections.
Nepal has a total of 77 districts in seven provinces.
Significantly,
RJPN took part in the third phase of the local elections
held on September 18, 2017. RJPN was formed on April 20,
2017, by merging six prominent Madhesi parties, including
the Tarai Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP), Sadbhavana Party
(SP), National Madhes Socialist Party (NMSP), Madhesi
People's Rights Forum-Republican (MPRF-R), Tarai Madhes
Sadhbhavana Party (TMSP) and Federal Sadhbhavana Party
(FSP). RJPN had boycotted the first and second rounds
of polls. The Madhesi parties have been demanding an amendment
to the Constitution adopted
on September 20, 2015, to change the demarcation of Districts
and constituencies before the holding of local level elections.
On August
16, 2017, in order to bring the agitating RJPN onboard
the election process, Parliament began clause-wise discussion
on the Constitution Amendment Bill registered by the Pushpa
Kamal Dahal-led Government on April 11, 2017. Further,
the ruling parties – NC and Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist
Centre (CPN-Maoist Center) –added nine local units on
August 18, 2017, including three new local units in Sarlahi;
two in Rautahat; and one each is in Saptari, Parsa, Dhanusha
and Bara Districts of Province 2, where the third phase
of local level polls was held on September 18, 2017. Nevertheless,
the Parliament session held on August 21, 2017, could
not endorse the Constitution Amendment Bill, as opposition
parities including CPN-UML and Rastriya Prajatantra Party
(RPP) voted against it. Out of 553 lawmakers present in
the voting, as many as 347 lawmakers voted in favor of
the Bill while 206 lawmakers voted against it, failing
to reach the two-third majority required for constitutional
amendment.
Earlier,
due to simmering tensions
Madhesi parties had refused to take part in local polls.
However, on August 24, 2017, at a press conference organized
by the party in Kathmandu, RJPN announced its decision
to take part in the local level elections. RJPN Coordinator
Mahantha Thakur noted: “Sixty-four per cent people’s representatives
have accepted that the Constitution, which some forces
boasted had endorsement of 90 per cent majority, is flawed
and there is a need to amend the Constitution. Even though
the Constitution Amendment Bill was defeated in the Parliament,
the agendas of rights and identity that the RJPN has been
raising were established in the Parliament.” Thakur also
noted that the Government had granted ‘martyrdom status’
to those who were killed during the agitation for amendment
to the Constitution, compensation to those who lost their
properties in arson attacks, and monthly allowances to
those who sustained serious injuries, among other Madhesi
demands conceded.
Further,
in order to end the negative practices and exploitation
of Madhesi areas, and to formulate policy and programs
for implementation in order to empower the Madhesi communities,
the Parliament passed the Madhesi Commission Bill unanimously
on September 8, 2017, which the Government had presented
on November 13, 2016. Yet to be formed, the Commission
will recommend special programs to empower Madhesi communities,
which have lagged both economically and socially. The
Bill includes the operation of awareness programs for
the protection, promotion and empowerment of the Madhesi
Community, and the Committee is to recommend measures
for the protection of the Madhesi language, script, culture,
history, religion, art and literature. According to the
Bill, the Commissioner is to be appointed out of candidates
who have spent at least ten years in the welfare of Madhesi
Community, and with experience in the protection and promotion
of human rights and people’s empowerment.
Meanwhile,
on September 12, 2017, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba
declared, "We failed to push the Bill through the
Parliament but NC has not abandoned the issue. The Bill
will once again be put to vote in Parliament after the
local elections. NC is committed to fulfilling the demands
of the Madhesi communities." Reaffirming his pledge
to amend the Constitution and promising to do it under
his party's leadership, Prime Minister Deuba had stated,
on September 15, 2017, that NC would leave no stone unturned
to empower the Madhesi people by amending the Constitution.
Earlier,
taking the country one more step towards the implementation
of the Constitution, the Constituency Delimitation Commission
(CDC) formed on July 20, 2017, headed by former Justice
of the Supreme Court (SC) Kamal Narayan Das, submitted
its report on August 30, 2017, in line with its mandate
to carve out 165 constituencies across the country for
election to the House of Representatives. The number of
constituencies for provincial elections will be 330, as
the Constitutional provision requires two constituencies
for each federal constituency. A copy of the report was
submitted to Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba. According
to CDC Chairman Das, 90 per cent weightage was given to
population and 10 per cent to geography while carving
out the constituencies “after thoroughly considering factors
like geography, population distribution, social diversity
and laws regarding electoral constituency.” The CDC has
also made sure that one District has at least one constituency.
Of the total 165 electoral constituencies, 78 are in 20
Tarai
Districts which make up 47.27 per
cent of the country’s total geography. The CDC was initially
given 21 days to complete its task. Its term was extended
by 15 days on August 16, 2017. As per the Constitution,
the new constituencies carved out by the CDC cannot be
altered for another 20 years and the CDC recommendations
cannot be challenged in any court of law.
On the
other hand, on September 4, 2017, the Supreme Court directed
the Government to hold all types of elections, including
the provincial and parliamentary elections, by January
21, 2018. As per the new Constitution, local, province
and parliamentary elections needed to be completed by
this date. As a result, on September 13, 2017, the Government
decided to hold elections in the provinces and for Parliament
in two phases, on November 26, 2017 and December 7, 2017.
On September 14, 2017, a day after the Government’s decision,
the Election Commission charted out the details of Districts
going to polls in the first and second phases. The Election
Commission announced that, out of 77 Districts, 32 across
the seven Provinces, would go to polls in the first round
on November 26, 2017 and the remaining 45 Districts on
December 7, 2017.
As part
of the preparations to hold the upcoming provincial and
parliamentary elections, the Election Commission finalized
the design of the ballot papers to be used for the Proportional
Representation (PR) electoral system, on September 22,
2017. A board meeting of the Election Commission endorsed
the design, paving the way for printing the ballot papers.
The Election Commission estimates that it has to print
34 million ballot papers for the upcoming elections. Election
Commission Commissioner Narendra Dahal observed, "The
printing of ballot papers is a time taking job. So, we
are beginning to print the ballot papers for PR category
from September 26."
On September
20, 2017, the Nepal Constitution had completed two years
since its passage, and has now entered its third year.
Despite its fractious drafting and political differences
that persist across the country, there has been gradual
progress towards resolution, and a systemic embedding
of a culture of democratic and negotiated settling of
disputes, with no evidence of the extreme violence that
had afflicted the country in more than a decade of insurgency
and the transformative changes the national polity underwent
during this troubling phase. The successful completion
of local level elections has paved the way for provincial
and Parliamentary elections later this year, indicating
that the country’s political transition is likely to be
completed in the foreseeable future, and the sway of the
Constitution would be fully established.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
September 18-24, 2017
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists/Insurgents
|
Total
|
INDIA
|
|
Jammu and
Kashmir
|
3
|
1
|
3
|
7
|
Manipur
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
3
|
Punjab
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Left-Wing
Extremism
|
|
Chhattisgarh
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
Jharkhand
|
3
|
0
|
3
|
6
|
Telangana
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
INDIA (Total)
|
7
|
1
|
15
|
23
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Balochistan
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
FATA
|
0
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
KP
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
Punjab
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Sindh
|
2
|
3
|
0
|
5
|
PAKISTAN
(Total)
|
2
|
4
|
10
|
16
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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