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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 16, No. 4, July 24, 2017
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Unremitting
Effort
S.
Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On July
16, 2017, four terrorists of the Neo-Jama'atul Mujahideen
Bangladesh (Neo-JMB)
surrendered 12 hours after Rapid Action Battalion (RAB)
personnel cordoned off a tin-shed dwelling in Ashulia,
a suburban area near the capital, Dhaka. The four arrested
were Mozammel Huq, Rashedul Nabi, Ifranul Islam and Alamgir
Hossain. Two pistols, a laptop, and some books and pamphlets
were recovered from the house.
On July
12, 2017, Police arrested three Neo-JMB terrorists in
Chapainawabganj District: Abdul Malek aka Alam
(46), Al Amin aka Lutu (25) and Mohammad Mithun
(25). 19 kilograms of explosive materials were recovered
from them.
On July
7, 2017, the Counter-Terrorism and Transnational Crime
(CTTC) unit of Dhaka Metropolitan Police arrested Hatkata
Mahfuz, one of the planners of the Holey
Artisan attack , and also the top
explosives specialist of Neo-JMB, along with three accomplices,
from an orchard in the Kansat area of Chapainawabganj
District.
On July
5, 2017, RAB personnel arrested three JMB terrorists from
a house in the Master Bari area of Gazipur District while
they were planning to carry out terrorist activities.
RAB officials disclosed that there were allegations of
their involvement in the 2005
serial bomb blasts.
On July
1, 2017, the CTTC unit of the Dhaka Metropolitan Police
arrested three female Neo-JMB terrorists, including Tithi
Khatun (32), wife of Neo-JMB ‘chief’ Ayub Bachchu; Sumaiya
Akter (26), wife of the outfit's ‘second-in-command’ Abzar;
and Toly Khatun, wife of JMB terrorist Arman Ali, after
raiding a hideout in Kushtia District's Bheramara area.
The hideout was neutralized in a drive codenamed “Tepid
Punch”, targeting safe havens of top leaders, including
the Ameer (Chief) and Shura (Committee)
members of the banned terrorist outfit. Police also recovered
a bomb weighing around three kilograms, two suicide vests,
10 small bombs, a pistol, 12 bullets and 10 kilograms
of bomb-making materials, in the raid.
On June
12, 2017, the CTTC unit of the Dhaka Metropolitan Police
arrested six Neo-JMB terrorists in the New Market area
of Dhaka city. The group was planning to carry out attacks
during Ramadan to mark the anniversary of the deadly Gulshan
Cafe attack..
According
to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism
Portal (SATP), since the Gulshan
Cafe attack on July 1, 2016, 1,197
Islamist terrorists have been arrested and another 93
killed across Bangladesh. Prominent among those killed
were the Neo-JMB leader and mastermind of the Gulshan
Cafe attack, Tamim Ahmed Chowdhury aka Shaykh Abu
Ibrahim Al Hanif aka Amir (30); the JMB ‘military
commander’ for the northern region Khaled Hasan aka
Badar Mama (30); Neo-JMB ‘military commander’ Murad
aka Jahangir Alam aka Omar; JMB ‘regional
commander’ Tulu Mollah (33); JMB ‘regional coordinator’
Abu Musa aka Abujar; Neo-JMB ‘military chief’ Aminur
Islam aka Alam (23); Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami
Bangladesh (HuJI-B) ‘chief’ Mufti Abdul Hannan; and HUJI-B
‘regional commander’ Tajul Islam Mahmud aka Mama
Hujur (46) (data till July 23, 2017).
To continue
the relentless
action against the terrorist formations,
Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal told Parliament on
June 30, 2017, the Government has decided to create 50,000
additional posts with the Bangladesh Police. The Home
Minister added further, “There is no alternative to ensuring
people-friendly Police forces to develop law and order
throughout the country. Industrial police, naval police,
tourism police, Special Security and Protection Battalion
(SBPN), Police Bureau of Investigation (PBI), were added
to the organizational structure of Bangladesh Police.”
Earlier,
at a meeting chaired by Finance Minister AMA Muhith at
the Secretariat on June 18, 2017, to stop terror suspects
from getting bail and to make stronger prosecution to
fight terrorism, a 16-member taskforce – the National
Coordination Committee on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating
Financing of Terrorism – under the Finance Ministry asked
the Government to introduce a permanent Attorney service
to engage competent lawyers. The taskforce is tasked with
overseeing the Government's initiatives to prevent terror
financing and money laundering. Raising concerns over
the release of a number of terrorist suspects on bail
in recent times due to weaknesses of the prosecution,
several officials who attended the meeting asserted that,
when a suspected terrorist gets bail, it is the prosecutors'
duty to inform the Attorney General's Office about this,
but they failed to do so in most cases. Disturbingly,
The Daily Star, the largest circulating daily English-language
newspaper in Bangladesh, reported on June 20, 2017, that
around 150 suspected terrorists secured bail over the
preceding six months, mainly because the prosecutors failed
to build up strong cases due to their lack of competence
and efficiency.
Significantly,
on July 19, 2017, after detecting unusual transactions,
the Bangladesh Financial Intelligence Unit (BFIU) brought
the overall activities of 17 foreign non-government development
organizations (NGOs) under intense surveillance. Officials
disclosed that most of these NGOs were under the control
of or affiliated with Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and were based
in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and other Middle
East countries. Major NGOs of the list, which include
Bangladesh Krishi Kalyan Samity, Muslim Aid Bangladesh,
Rabeta Al-Alam al-Islami, Qatar Charitable Society, Islamic
Relief Agency, Al-Furkan Foundation, Kuwait Joint Relief
Committee, International Islamic Relief Organization,
Hayatul Ighachha, Revival of Islamic Heritage Society,
Tawhidi Noor and Al-Muntada al-Islami.
Claiming
that terrorists no longer possessed the capacities to
carry out attacks like the one at Gulshan Café, as their
‘backbones had been broken’ during anti-terrorist drives
across the country, Monirul Islam, the CTTC chief, noted,
on June 30, 2017, “They may try to get reorganized again
but we’ll hunt down the absconding terrorists, too. So
far, eight terrorists who were involved in planning and
coordination in the (Gulshan Café) attack have already
been killed in different places across the country during
anti-terrorist operations in the last one year.” Similarly,
Inspector General of Police (IGP) AKM Shahidul Hoque talking
to reporters at Police Headquarters on July 2, 2017, noted,
“We do not think the terrorists have the strength. Those
who are on the run will be captured, no matter how big
a leader they are. We are expecting the top absconding
Neo-JMB leader to be arrested soon.”
Observing
that Bangladesh has set an example for the world with
its success in curbing terrorism and extremism, Prime
Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed stated, on July 5, 2017,
"Law enforcement agencies and the Armed Forces together
with a cross-section of people have made this possible,
and this trend should continue so that terrorists get
no place of terrorism and militancy on Bangladesh soil.”
Earlier, urging the country’s Muslim population to come
forward to check the spread of extremism with a rational
approach, Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal noted,
on June 10, 2017, “At first, a vested quarter carried
out extremist activities in the country, and propagated
that Qoumi madrassah students are the perpetrators.
Later, the quarter targeted the students of universities
and English medium schools, and used them to spread extremism
across the country, misguiding their young minds. This
vested quarter is trying to defame both the country and
its Muslim population. You have to come forward to solve
your own problem. There’s no scope of ignoring this issue.
You have to preach the Islam and its holy messages truthfully.’’
Worryingly,
however, on July 9, 2017, bomb experts noted that the
deadly explosive Triacetone Triperoxide (TATP), used by
terrorists in Paris, Brussels and London attacks, had,
of late become Neo-JMB’s explosive of choice in Bangladesh.
The experts claimed that they had found evidence of its
use in terrorist dens in Rajshahi, Jhenidah and Moulvibazar
Districts. Traces of the easy-to-make TATP, known as "the
mother of Satan”, was found in surgical belts terrorists
use these days instead of suicide belts, and in other
bombs. An official of the CTTC bomb disposal team noted,
“Only 300 grams of TATP can kill everyone in a 10-meter
radius.” Revealing another trend, on July 19, 2017, CTTC
unit Deputy Police Commissioner Abdul Mannan disclosed,
“Terrorists have begun using encryption to foil efforts
by law enforcement to understand their plans. They regularly
change the coding language that they use. They use them
to encrypt messages sent across messaging apps. We have
been able to decipher some of their messages after interrogating
captured terrorists.”
Bangladesh
has taken giant strides against terrorism and Islamist
extremism. Recent proposal to establish a permanent Attorney
service with competent lawyers to fight terrorism is a
welcome development. However, the recovery of new weapons,
explosives and resources during recent raids suggest that
flows of material aid to these groups remains significant.
Moreover, the continuous involvement of women as combatants
has grave implications and potential for the abrupt augmentation
of the threat. Bangladesh’s struggle against Islamist
extremism and terrorism is far from over and the latent
threat persists.
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Manipur:
Rising Ripples
Giriraj
Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On July
17, 2017, four civilians and one Assam Rifles (AR) trooper
were injured when a powerful Improvised Explosive Device
(IED) exploded at Khurai Ahongei in Imphal East District.
On July
10, 2017, a civilian, identified as Ranjan Das (42), was
shot dead by United Tribal Liberation Army (UTLA) militants
at his residence at Chhata Bekra village in Jiribam District
situated near the Assam-Manipur interstate boundary. UTLA
later alleged that the person as an AR ‘informer’.
On the
same day, one Army trooper, identified as Moirangthem
Herachandra Singh (37), was found dead at Nachou Kwak
Siphai area in Bishnupur District. According to reports,
unidentified militants had killed the trooper and dumped
his body in a canal.
On June
30, 2017, an AR trooper was killed and another two were
injured in an IED explosion at Lambui village in Ukhrul
District.
On June
15, 2017, People’s Liberation Army (PLA)
militants exploded an IED killing an AR trooper and injuring
three in the Chassad area of Ukhrul District.
According
to South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Manipur
has recorded at least 35 insurgency-linked fatalities,
including 16 civilians, six Security Force (SF) personnel,
and 13 militants, in the current year so far (data till
July 23, 2017). During the corresponding period of 2016,
the State had registered 23 such fatalities, including
nine civilians, eight SF personnel and six militants.
Worryingly,
fatalities in the first six months and 23 days of the
current year have already crossed the total fatalities
recorded through 2016, at 33 – the lowest since 1992.
Worse, civilian fatalities – one of the most vital indicators
of the security situation in a region – after registering
continuous and significant declines since 2008, began
to rise in the current year. According to the SATP database,
civilian fatalities stood at 150 in 2007; declined to
131 in 2008; 77 in 2009; 26 in 2010; 25 each in 2011 and
2012; 21 in 2013; 20 in 2014; 17 in 2015; and 14 in 2016.
2017 has already recorded 16 civilian fatalities.
Moreover,
the State has registered 14 attacks on SFs by militants,
resulting in six fatalities and 14 injured among the SFs
in the current year; as compared to eight such attacks
and eight fatalities and 12 injured during the corresponding
period of 2016. On the other hand, SFs have managed to
eliminate only two militants out of the 13 militants killed
so far in the current year, as compared to three out of
six killed in the corresponding period of 2016. The remaining
11 militants in 2017 and three in 2016 were either killed
in internecine clashes or were eliminated by their parent
groups.
The total
number of incidents of killing also increased from 16
in 2016 to 28 in 2017 (data till July 23, for both years).
However, no major incident (involving three or more fatalities)
has been reported in the current year, thus far, as compared
to two during the corresponding period of 2016. Further,
in 2017, fatalities were reported from nine out of a total
of 16 districts in Manipur. These included Tegnoupal
(six fatalities), Kamjong (four), Ukhrul (five), Kangpokpi
(five), Noney (four), Churachandpur (three), all of which
are Hill Districts; Imphal West (two fatalities), Bishnupur
and Jiribam (one) each, among Valley Districts. The place
of killing in the remaining four fatalities could not
be ascertained. During the corresponding period of 2016,
fatalities were reported from eight out of a total of
nine districts in Manipur. These included Chandel (seven
fatalities), Ukhrul (two), Senapati (two), Tamenglong
(two), Churachandpur (one), all of which are Hill Districts;
Imphal East (four), Thoubal (three) and Imphal West (two),
among Valley Districts. On December 8, 2016, the number
of districts in Manipur was increased from existing nine
to 16 Districts.
Extortion
remains an issue of concern. Significantly, on June 18,
2017, the Kangpokpi Women’s Welfare Organization held
a ‘Toumun Kiphin’ (sit-in-protest) at the Kangpokpi
District headquarters, holding placards which read “Stop
Extortion, Live and Let Live”. The reason for the protest
was that a banned outfit (name not disclosed) has served
monetary demands to Forest and Power departments, some
individuals, highway maintenance agencies and shop vendors.
The monetary demand ranged from INR two million each to
the Forest and Power department to INR 1,500 to 4,000
for shop vendors. An unnamed businessman told the media:
“Militants are threatening us all the time. We can’t live
in peace. We are hiding most of the time. We are suffering
immensely at their hands. Living a normal life is difficult
for us.” There were a total of three reported incidents
of extortion. Further, the abduction of 22 persons (in
12 incidents) had also been reported in the current year,
till July 23. However, actual incidence of both extortion
and abduction is likely to be very much higher, as an
overwhelming proportion of cases are settled without being
reported.
The surge
in insurgency-linked violence in the current year is in
spite of the fact that a total of 23 insurgent groups
under two conglomerates are currently under Suspension
of Operation (SoO) agreements with the Government: eight
under the United Progressive Front (UPF) and 15 under
the Kuki National Organisation (KNO). The SoO agreement
with KNO exists since August 2008 and was valid upto July
21, 2017 [no further updates available]; while the SoO
agreement with UPF was valid up to June 8, 2017 [no further
updates available]. Political dialogue with these groups
commenced on June 15, 2016.
This raises
question over the implementation part of the SoOs. News
reports indicate that the newly elected Manipur Government
raised the issue of SoO violations with Union Government
on June 12, 2017. An unnamed source close to Manipur Chief
Minister (CM) N. Biren Singh informed the media, "The
Chief Minister will raise the issue of ground rules violations
by the cadres of militant groups that have tripartite
Suspension of Operation agreement with the State and the
Centre."
Moreover,
militant groups such as the Coordination Committee (CorCom)
of six Imphal Valley-based groups, the Manipur Naga Revolutionary
Front (MNRF), the Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF), besides
the Nagaland-based Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak
Muivah (NSCN-IM)
and the Khaplang faction of NSCN (NSCN-K),
continue to operate in Manipur. CorCom comprises the Revolutionary
People’s Front (RPF, the political wing of the People’s
Liberation Army, PLA), United National Liberation Front
(UNLF),
People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK),
Kanglei Yowel Kanna Lup (KYKL), Kangleipak Communist Party
(KCP)
and the progressive faction of PREPAK (PREPAK-Pro). CorCom
supports the Myanmar based militant conglomerate, the
United National Liberation Front of West East South Asia
(UNLFWESA)
.
SFs had
undeniably done remarkably well to restore relative order
in Manipur in recent years, providing a more secure environment
for the civilian population. The recent surge, though
not alarming, is nevertheless worrying, more so in the
present context. Manipur Chief Minister N. Biren Singh
observed, on May 23, 2017, "The series of violent
incidents in Moreh may be related with an intentional
attempt to sabotage the Act East Policy." Significantly,
so far, at least five violent incidents have been reported
from Moreh in Tegnoupal District in 2017, in which one
civilian was killed and another three persons (all SF
personnel) were injured. A ‘sanitized’ Asian Highway No.
01 (AH01), that will start from Moreh in Manipur and terminate
at Maesot in Thailand, is intended to provide the necessary
physical connectivity for fulfilling India's ‘Act East’
(earlier, ‘Look East’) Policy, enhancing trade links with
South East Asia.
As the
Government continues efforts to further strengthen and
improve its security apparatus, it is vital to ensure
that the ground rules for the militants in talks with
the state should be strictly enforced in toto.
Robust law and order is the principle prerequisite for
the development of the landlocked State, and will be the
lynchpin on which the success of the Act East Policy hinges.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
July
10-16, 2017
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Civilians
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Security
Force Personnel
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Terrorists/Insurgents
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Total
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INDIA
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Jammu and
Kashmir
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0
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0
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6
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6
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INDIA (Total)
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0
|
0
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6
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6
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PAKISTAN
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Balochistan
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4
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2
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0
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6
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FATA
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0
|
2
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21
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23
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KP
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0
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2
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1
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3
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Sindh
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4
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3
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0
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7
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PAKISTAN
(Total)
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8
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9
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22
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39
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Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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