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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 8, No. 15, October 19, 2009

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT


PAKISTAN
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Speeding into the Void
Kanchan Lakshman
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management; Assistant Editor, Faultlines: Writings on Conflict & Resolution

After much vacillation and hype, and stung by targeted attacks at its very core, the military launched its long-awaited Operation Rah-e-Nijat (Path of Salvation) late on October 16, 2009, against the Hakeemullah Mehsud-led Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in South Waziristan. The declared mission objective, according to the military spokesman, is to neutralise the "centre of gravity of terrorism” in Pakistan. The decision to launch a ground offensive reportedly came hours after the military and political leadership agreed to stage the ‘final assault’ on the “headquarters of terrorism" in reaction to the series of terrorist attacks across the country over the preceding two weeks. "The ground offensive has started," military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas declared, "The headquarters of the defunct Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) will be surgically targeted to dismantle the network of the terror outfit." Abbas stated that intelligence reports had revealed that some 80 per cent of the terrorist attacks in Pakistan originated from South Waziristan, and that some 1,500 foreign terrorists were believed to be hiding in the area, in adding strength to local militants.

At the time of writing, the Government had imposed a curfew in the region, closing all link roads to and from Waziristan, and jamming all communication systems in Waziristan and the adjoining areas of the Frontier. Official sources said the military was "converging on Taliban strongholds from three directions – Jandola in the east, Shakai in the west and Razmak in the north. They said initial reports had revealed the Taliban were putting up "stiff resistance" to the Army’s advance." 90 militants and nine soldiers have died while 23 troopers were injured so far (till October 18).

Earlier, the flurry of escalating terrorist violence across Pakistan had reinforced the country’s progressive spiral towards state failure. A series of lethal suicide bombings, gun-and-grenade raids and other attacks orchestrated by the TTP and its al Qaeda allies had killed at least 152 persons and 23 terrorists and injured more than 250 persons since October 1, 2009. The most significant of these incidents included:

October 16: 15 persons, including three Policemen, were killed and 19 others sustained injuries after a suicide bomber rammed his explosives-laden vehicle into the Criminal Investigation Agency's Special Investigation Unit in Peshawar, the capital city of the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP).

October 15: At least 19 persons, including 14 Security Force (SF) personnel, were killed and 41 others sustained injuries in three separate terrorist attacks in Lahore, capital of Punjab province. All nine attackers were also shot dead by the SFs. The attacks were carried out at the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) building on Temple Road, the Manawan Police Training Centre on the outskirts and the Elite Police Academy on the Bedian Road.

11 persons, including three Policemen, were killed and 22 others sustained injuries when a 22-year old suicide bomber rammed an explosives-laden vehicle into the building of the Saddar Police Station in the military area of Kohat in the NWFP.

October 12: 41 persons - including six soldiers - were killed and 45 others were injured in a suicide attack on a military convoy in the Alpuri area of Shangla District (which borders Swat District), in NWFP. The bomber – believed to be 14 years old and on foot – targeted the convoy while it was passing through the busy Alpuri bazaar.

October 11: In a successful 18-hour operation, the SFs, including Special Services Group commandos, killed four terrorists, arrested one and rescued 39 hostages at a security office outside the General Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi, ending a siege that began on October 10. Three civilians and two SF personnel were killed, while seven SF personnel and three civilians were injured during the 18-hour operation – which culminated in the arrest of the wounded ringleader, Aqeel alias Dr. Osman. Six soldiers and five terrorists had already been killed in the siege on October 10. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Director-General, Major General Athar Abbas, said three civilian hostages and two Army officials were killed while seven officials were injured in the commando operation. The ISPR chief said eight SF personnel, including a Brigadier and a Lieutenant Colonel, nine terrorists and three civilians were killed on October 10 and 11, while the total number of injured was 15 (12 Army personnel and three civilians).

October 9: 49 persons, including a woman and seven children, were killed and 90 others were injured when a suicide attacker detonated his explosives-laden car at the crowded Soekarno Chowk in Khyber Bazaar in Peshawar.

October 5: A suicide bomber targeted the United Nations World Food Programme office in Islamabad, killing five persons, including a UN diplomat (Iraqi national Bootan Ali) and two women employees. Six other staff members were injured.

Is Pakistan losing its campaign against the Taliban-al Qaeda network? The recent avalanche of attacks has predominantly targeted the Security Forces, killing at least 34 SF personnel. Coordinated assaults on October 15 against Police targets in Lahore in Punjab and Kohat in the Frontier came five days after a siege at the GHQ in Rawalpindi. It is this unwavering intent that has widened the conflict and crippled the Government, which now appears bereft of any effective strategy to counter the militant enterprise.

The fact that Taliban and al Qaeda-linked militants are widening the arc of conflict within Pakistan also aggravates the US Administration’s plans for a new offensive across the border in Afghanistan, where the war has deteriorated amidst a somewhat fraudulent presidential election.

While military operations against the TTP in the Malakand Division of the Frontier had limited impact on the ground situation, there is great expectation being generated by Islamabad’s spin doctors that an offensive against the Taliban-al Qaeda in South Waziristan would yield decisive gains. But even as this campaign is being drummed up, the momentum has shifted progressively to Pakistan’s heartland, Punjab, which is where the militancy is now dramatically augmenting. However, the escalation of violence in Punjab’s urban areas, including Rawalpindi, Lahore, Islamabad and Peshawar, and the subversion elsewhere in the province, has not attracted significant state response. On the contrary, the Government remains in denial as far as the rising terrorism in Punjab is concerned, and simply refuses to accept the reality of rising militancy in the province. The long-standing conviction that underpins the creation and support of terrorist groups as strategic assets appears to have survived the devastation of successive attacks and bombings in the heartland.

While the progressive collapse in the NWFP and FATA has been well documented, the centrifugal dynamic in Punjab and its emergence as a jihadi hub has largely been neglected. Deeper scrutiny reveals that the situation in Punjab is, in many ways, alarming and will have far reaching consequences in the immediate future for Pakistan. It is useful to note that there have been 152 terrorism-related incidents in Punjab just in 2009 (till October 18) inflicting 229 fatalities, including an overwhelming 118 civilians and 77 SF personnel. The fact that militant fatalities total just 34 in 2009 clearly indicates that the Taliban-al Qaeda network has secured the upper hand. It is also evident that militants have been able to shift the momentum of the conflict by bringing the battle to the urban heartland, including the national capital Islamabad, the garrison town Rawalpindi, and provincial capital Lahore.

Alarming for the Government and the Army is the fact that renegade militant groups like the TTP are now collaborating with al-Qaeda linked groups like the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), to mount a grave challenge to the state in Punjab. There are some indications, although clear evidence is yet to materialize from the recent terrorist attacks, that militants from Punjab are rallying around the TTP to worsen an already appalling situation for the Government. "The militants want to destabilise the country and want the Government to collapse," Ayesha Siddiqa, a security analyst, declares, "The Government is in a state of denial... Al Qaeda and Taliban have been penetrating their influence in the Punjab and now it is high time for the Government and our Forces to realise this danger." In addition, an official stated that, "the real threat of sophisticated militant attacks now comes from Punjab where militants have engaged the security forces in face-to-face fighting."

At the other end, the series of attacks over the last three weeks demonstrates that military operations in Swat and elsewhere in the Malakand Division of the NWFP, and the killing of TTP chief Baitullah Mehsud in a US missile attack in South Waziristan on August 5, 2009, have had little impact on the extremists. The audacious commando-style assaults at the GHQ and on Police targets in Rawalpindi and Lahore, accompanied by incessant attacks elsewhere, clearly demonstrate that the TTP retains the capacity to challenge the state on several fronts, despite momentary setbacks in the Frontier. Militant capacities, as noted in earlier SAIR assessments, have in fact remained more or less evidently intact across the country. Further, there are some preliminary indications that the TTP has overcome the initial squabbling and power struggle after Baitullah’s death and is now regrouping rather well. The new TTP chief, Hakeemullah Mehsud, earlier thought by Pakistani and US officials to have been killed in infighting, appeared before a small group of journalists at an unspecified location in South Waziristan on October 5, vowing to avenge the killing of his predecessor and to expedite attacks on US and Pakistani forces. .

Pakistan Air Force (PAF) jets have been strafing suspected Taliban positions in South Waziristan for more than a month now, as a precursor to the much anticipated ground offensive in the region. The aerial strikes and official statements, over the past weeks, about a ground offensive have already led to a flight out of South Waziristan, and many militants would join the anticipated flood of over two million refugees from the region. Sources indicate that a substantial proportion of TTP and al Qaeda militants, in an anticipation of the ground campaign, have already moved out of the region. With the element of surprise entirely missing, continued aerial operations and a simultaneous limited ground assault would lead far more to extensive collateral damage than to enduring gains against the militants in South Waziristan, a scenario earlier witnessed in Swat.

More importantly, the ground offensive will certainly lead to an escalation of the Taliban – al Qaeda campaign of terrorism elsewhere in the country. It is highly probable that the TTP and its al Qaeda allies will attack the urban spaces and state installations across Pakistan even as the ground offensive in South Waziristan gathers pace, a pattern that was witnessed in the aftermath of the military campaign in Swat as well. Indeed, the current string of terrorist attacks is also part of a pre-emptive strategy, intended to divert SFs from their insistent focus on Waziristan. The intended message is that the state should not yield to the intense pressure from the US administration to launch a military campaign against the Taliban. The Taliban - al Qaeda have, indeed, repeatedly stated that military operations by Islamabad are meant to appease the United States, which has for long asked Pakistan to combat militants operating in the tribal region bordering Afghanistan.

Going forward, the Government, which is currently deeply divided with an intense three-way (the President, Prime Minister and the Army being the dramatis personae) power struggle, will find it extremely difficult to deal with a further spiral in terrorist violence in the cities. A highly polarised Islamabad is adding to existing complexities and, as analyst Rahimullah Yousafzai has rightly remarked, "The Government is on the defensive. It does not seem to have evolved any long or short-term strategy to counter (the attacks)."

The weeks ahead will subject Pakistan military’s capacities to an intense scrutiny, even as Islamabad’s intent and will to prosecute a long-drawn counter-terrorist campaign against a hardened enemy in its own sanctuary in the mountainous terrain of South Waziristan are brought under a scanner. Little in the evolving scenario suggests that Pakistan’s hurtle into chaos will be halted by the trajectory of current developments in Waziristan.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
October 12-18, 2009

 

Civilian

Security Force Personnel

Terrorist/Insurgent

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Left-wing Extremism

0
0
1
1

INDIA

 

Assam

0
0
2
2

Goa

2
0
0
2

Jammu and Kashmir

0
1
1
2

Left-wing Extremism

 

Andhra Pradesh

1
0
0
1

Jharkhand

2
0
1
3

Orissa

0
0
3
3

West Bengal

2
0
0
2

Total (INDIA)

7
1
7
15

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

3
1
0
4

FATA

8
16
231
255

NWFP

60
12
8
80

Punjab

7
14
9
30

Total (PAKISTAN)

78
43
248
369
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


INDIA

Terror camps are still intact in Pakistan occupied Kashmir, says Defence Minister A. K. Antony: Pakistan is not meeting its commitments to root out anti-India terror emanating from its soil and the network of terrorist camps is intact in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK), Defence Minister A K Antony said in Moscow on October 15, 2009. "There are attacks along the LoC [Line of Control] and more attempts of infiltration in Jammu and Kashmir, but our armed forces are defeating them. Terror camps are still intact in PoK. Pakistan is not making efforts to root them out and meeting its commitments to root out anti-India terror from its soil," he said. PTI News, October 15, 2009.


PAKISTAN

231 militants and 16 soldiers among 255 persons killed during the week in FATA: The Army claimed killing 60 militants and losing five soldiers with 11 others sustaining injuries in the past 24 hours as Operation Rah-e-Nijat (Path of Salvation) launched in South Waziristan Agency entered the second day on October 18, 2009. In its advance towards the Taliban stronghold of Makeen, the Security Forces (SFs) clashed with militants, killing 30 of them in the Jandola, Kotkai and Srarogha areas, said a statement of the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR). It said two soldiers died and four others sustained injuries in these clashes. The Mandana, Kund and Tarakai areas were secured from this side, added the statement. The operation progressed seven kilometres north of Shakai from the second direction where the SFs had captured areas like Boya Narai and Wozi Sar from the militants, said the ISPR, which also claimed that 20 militants and a soldier were killed while three soldiers were wounded in the same area. Securing some key heights around and south of Razmak, the Army said the advancing SFs killed 10 militants and lost two soldiers with four sustaining injuries.

The Pakistan Army launched Operation Rah-e-Nijat late on October 16 night, combating the Hakeemullah Mehsud-led Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) killing 30 militants in air strikes targeting the Kotkai, Makeen and Ladah regions of South Waziristan. Four soldiers were also killed and 12 others injured on the first day of the offensive. Separately, 12 Taliban militants were killed and two injured in clashes between the SFs and Taliban in the Bajaur and Mohmand Agencies on October 17. Officials said three militants were killed and two injured in the Salarzai revenue division of Bajaur Agency. Official sources said the SFs continued the military operation in the Warr Mamoond and Salarzai sub-divisions to restore the Government’s writ in these areas. A spokesman for the Frontier Corps Media Cell told the APP that SFs killed nine Taliban militants, including seven foreigners, in an overnight operation in Agra Post of Mohmand Agency. He said one soldier was also killed in the fighting. Further, three soldiers were killed and six injured after two separate remote controlled bombings that targeted SFs convoys in Waziristan.

25 Taliban militants and three troopers were killed on October 16, as the military continued operations in South Waziristan and Bajaur Agency. 12 militants were killed during the third day of bombings in South Waziristan while 18 others were injured. Six terrorist hideouts were destroyed and several houses damaged in the operations. Separately, helicopter gunships killed 10 militants during raids on suspected terrorist bases in Bajaur Agency, officials told AFP. Also in Bajaur, three more terrorists were killed and two injured during a clash between SFs and the Taliban in the Salarzai area. Separately, a security official told AFP that suspected Taliban militants launched a rocket attack at a military camp in the Shakai area of South Waziristan, killing three soldiers and injuring four.

Military planes bombed suspected militant positions in the Laddah, Nawazkot, Khaisora, Saam, Sararogha and Tiarza areas of South Waziristan on October 15, killing at least 32 militants and non-combatants. 12 people were reportedly killed and seven others injured in the Kanigram and Karama areas of Laddah sub-division and nine in Nawazkot area adjacent to North Waziristan. Five people were killed when their car was hit in Maulvi Khan Sarai and six people died and five wounded in Tiarza. Separately, four Afghan Taliban militants were killed in a US drone attack in North Waziristan on October 15. The slain men reportedly belonged to the Ghaznavi group of the Jalaluddin Haqqani network of the Taliban in Afghanistan. “Three missiles were fired by the drone in Dandi Darphakhel area and killed four Afghan Taliban from the Haqqani network,” officials told Daily Times. In addition, four militants were killed as the SFs targeted militant hideouts in the Utmankhel area of Orakzai Agency on October 15.

19 persons, including some militants and eight persons of a family, were killed and eight others sustained injuries when fighter planes targeted different areas of South Waziristan Agency on October 14. Four hideouts of the militants were also destroyed in the air strikes. Fighter planes are reported to have bombed the Maidan, Tangi, Bodinzai, Kacha Langarkhel, Sam, Ragh, and Salay Rogha areas in Ladha sub-division. At least 11 persons, including militants, were killed and seven others injured in the bombing. The sources added that a training centre of the militants, the house of a Taliban ‘commander’ and a hideout were destroyed in the Sam, Ragh and Salay Rogha areas, respectively, in air attacks. They said several houses were also damaged in the intense bombing by the Pakistan Air Force jets in Salay Rogha. Tribal sources said two fighter jets fired at a house of an 80-year-old tribal elder Malik Nekam Khan in the Spinkai area of Sarwakai Tehsil (revenue unit) at 3:00 pm, killing eight members of his family on the spot and injuring seven others.

Six Taliban militants were killed when fighter jets targeted the group’s positions in South Waziristan on October 13, said officials, even as jets and helicopter gunships bombed Taliban hideouts and ground forces fired heavy artillery in Bajaur Agency, killing 26 Taliban militants and injuring dozens of others. Fighter jets are reported to have launched another round of air-strikes in South Waziristan, destroying around 15 houses in Makeen, Ladha and Barwand, said a local intelligence official. Abdul Malik, a local Government official, said the military strikes in Bajaur Agency took place in the Damadola and Sawai areas.

At least 15 Taliban militants were killed and 16 others sustained injuries after the SFs launched Operation Sherdil in the Mamoond and Salarzai sub-divisions of Bajaur Agency on October 12. Elsewhere in the FATA, jets bombed Taliban positions in South Waziristan, killing six Taliban militants. SFs said that three Taliban hideouts were destroyed in the Bajaur raids. The AP news agency reported that fighter jets bombed suspected Taliban hideouts. www.dawn.com; www.dailytimes.com.pk; www.thenews.com.pk, October 13-19, 2009. Dawn; Daily Times; The News, October 13-19, 2009.

60 civilians and 12 soldiers among 80 persons killed during the week in NWFP: At least 15 persons, including three Policemen, were killed and 19 others sustained injuries after a suicide bomber rammed his explosives-laden vehicle into the Criminal Investigation Agency’s Special Investigation Unit in Peshawar, the capital city of NWFP, on October 16, 2009.

11 persons, including three Policemen, were killed and 22 others sustained injuries when a suicide bomber rammed an explosives-laden vehicle into the building of the Saddar Police Station located in the military area of Kohat on October 15. The Deputy Inspector General of Police (Kohat region), Abdullah Khan, told reporters that a 22-year-old suicide bomber blew up his explosives-laden double cabin vehicle just outside the main gate of Saddar Police Station, killing 11 people, including three Policemen Fayazul Hasnain, Muhammad Noor and Khurshid, and injuring 22 persons, including four Policemen. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attack. The claim was made by TTP central spokesman Azam Tariq who contacted reporters to confirm that the attack was made by the Taliban militants operating in Darra Adamkhel. Elsewhere, an eight-year-old boy, identified as Hamza, was killed and 12 persons, including two Policemen, were wounded when a powerful bomb exploded in a three-storey building in the officers’ colony of provincial capital Peshawar on October 15 .

The death toll from a suicide bombing in the Shangla District increased to 45 from 41 on October 13 even as the TTP claimed responsibility for the attack. “Two people died overnight and two more died this morning,” a doctor told AFP on October 13. Meanwhile in the Swat District, Security Forces (SFs) said on October 13 that they had killed five more Taliban militants and arrested five others.

41 persons - including six soldiers - were killed and 45 others were injured on October 12 in a suicide attack on a military convoy in the Alpuri area of Shangla District (which borders Swat District), NWFP Information Minister Iftikhar Hussain and a military official said. The bomber – believed to be 14 years old and on foot – targeted the convoy while it was passing through the busy Alpuri bazaar. A military spokesman said that 12 shops and seven vehicles were destroyed when the young bomber detonated explosives. “Some vehicles loaded with ammunition were also part of the convoy... they caught fire after the explosion,” said the spokesman. Dawn; Daily Times; The News,, October 13-19, 2009.

14 Policemen and seven civilians among 30 persons killed in three terrorist attacks on Police targets in Lahore: 19 persons, including 14 Security Force (SF) personnel, were killed and 41 others sustained injuries in three separate terrorist attacks in Lahore, capital of Punjab province, on October 15, 2009. All nine attackers were also shot dead by the SFs. The attacks were carried out at the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) building on the Temple Road, the Manawan Police Training Centre and the Elite Police Academy on the Bedian Road. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan’s Amjad Farooqi faction claimed responsibility for the three attacks.

In the first attack, a terrorist wearing an explosive vest attacked the FIA offices. The assailant reportedly opened indiscriminate fire at the people, killing six persons, including two FIA inspectors, on the spot, The News reported. Police cordoned off the building and subsequently killed the terrorist. However, Daily Times reported that at least three terrorists attacked the FIA building, killing seven people. In the second attack, four terrorists stormed the Elite Force Training Centre and an encounter continued till afternoon until the SFs killed the two attackers and freed a family they were holding hostage. Two other attackers blew themselves up, Police said. An Assistant Sub-Inspector of Police, Ghulam Jaffar, and a civilian, Adil, were killed and seven Policemen were wounded in the attack. The attackers of the Manawan Police Training School, wearing Police-like camouflage fatigues, lobbed a grenade and opened indiscriminate fire at the trainees, killing 11 Policemen and a civilian and injuring 34 Policemen, The News stated. However, Daily Times reported that nine Policemen died and 60 were injured when four attackers wearing suicide jackets attacked the compound. Three of the men blew themselves up, while one was subsequently killed by the Police. www.dailytimes.com.pk; www.thenews.com.pk; October 16, 2009. Daily Times; The News, October 16, 2009.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

Publisher
K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


A Project of the
Institute For Conflict Management



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