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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 8, No. 17, November 2, 2009
Data and assessments
from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence
Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal |
Troubled
Calm
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
2008
saw the end of monarchy and formation of the Federal
Democratic Republic of Nepal; 2009 has been marred by
multiple crises facing the infant republic. As the year
nears its end, Nepal finds itself in the midst of a
worsening political deadlock precipitated by the fall
of the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (Unified
CPN-Maoist)-led
Government on May 4, 2009, and the lack of adequate
strength of the incumbent Communist Party of Nepal-Unified
Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML)-led 22-party coalition.
The year
saw at least 49 fatalities in extremist-related violence,
including 35 civilians, one trooper and 13 militants.
Among the slain militants were cadres from the Communist
Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist) as well as rebels
of different groups operating in the Terai region. There
were at least two major incidents (involving the deaths
of three or more persons). On September 6, three persons
were killed and five others injured in a bomb blast
at the house of one Harka Bahadur’s house in Malakheti
Village Development Committee (VDC) area in the Kailali
District. On April 16, three persons, including two
members of a family, had been killed by an unidentified
group in the Mabu VDC area of Ilam District.
Fatalities
in Nepal, 2005-2009
Year
|
Civilians
|
SFs
|
Insurgents
|
Total
|
2009*
|
35
|
1
|
13
|
49
|
2008
|
55
|
1
|
25
|
81
|
2007
|
57
|
0
|
40
|
97
|
2006
|
61
|
181
|
238
|
480
|
2005
|
231
|
310
|
1307
|
1848
|
Source:
Institute for Conflict Management
* Data till November 01, 2009
Clearly,
however, the declining trajectory of violence since
the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)
has been sustained. Indeed, despite widespread apprehensions
in the wake of the collapse of the Maoist-led coalition
Government in May 2009, there has been no escalation.
The absence of violence, however, has failed to establish
a sense and promise of an enduring stability in this
Himalayan state.
Though
the quick fall of the Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka
Prachanda-led Maoist Government was a unexpected, the
growing distrust between the Maoists and the then-ruling
coalition partner UML and the opposition Nepali Congress
(NC) was palpable much earlier, jeopardizing even the
semblance of consensual politics. The non-Maoist parties
had, in fact, become skeptical about the stated Maoist
commitment to transform this radical formation into
a democratic force. While they were in power, moreover,
the Maoists did little to build confidence, using all
avenues available to consolidate their position in Nepali
politics. The hiatus widened even further
as a result of the core conflict over the issue of integration
of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) combatants with the
Nepal Army.
The issue
of Army integration was to be managed by the Army Integration
Special Committee set up in October 2008 and headed
by then Prime Minister Prachanda, but with the participation
of all key parties. The Army, however, announced a round
of recruitment in November 2008. This was blocked off
by the Defence Minister, who claimed the move violated
terms of the comprehensive peace accord. The then-Chief
of Army Staff (CoAS), General Rookmangud Katawal, clarified
that the recruitment was intended only to fill existing
positions, and this had been done earlier as well. Ignoring
the Defence Minister, the Army went ahead with the process.
The PLA retaliated by announcing its own recruitment.
The case went to the Supreme Court, which subsequently
ordered the PLA to halt recruitment immediately, and
the Nepal Army (NA), not to recruit in future. This
was followed soon after by the refusal of the Government
to extend the terms of eight Brigadier Generals, despite
a strong recommendation by General Katawal. The officers
went to court and obtained a stay order, which reinstated
them. The third incident – which is believed to have
made Prachanda personally furious – was when the Nepal
Army partially withdrew from the National Games when
the Government decided to allow the PLA to participate.
A political
crisis finally erupted when the Unified CPN-Maoist led
Government, having clear intensions of removing the
CoAS, sought a clarification from him on April 20, within
24-hours, for "disobedience of the Government decisions"
on three issues – recruitment in the Army, extension
of the tenure of eight Brigadiers, and the Army’s withdrawal
from some of the events at the Fifth National Games
in which the PLA was participating. The CoAS did reply
to the accusations and, predictably, his response was
not found to be satisfactory and he was sacked. But
the President, Dr. Ram Baran Yadav, as the Supreme Commander-in-Chief
of the Armed Forces, asked the CoAS to continue in office,
overriding the Maoist decision to dismiss him. The President
declared that the CoAS’ dismissal by the Cabinet did
not "meet the constitutional requirements and due process."
After
failing to get his way against General Katawal, Prachanda
announced his resignation on May 4. In his address to
the nation, Prachanda described the President’s move
as "unconstitutional" and added that it was no longer
appropriate for him to remain in the Government when
there clearly existed "two ruling powers (the executive
and the President)" in the country. Saying that a constitutional
President had no right to block the decisions of an
elected Government, he rued that the Presidential decision
had "dealt a serious blow to democracy, peace process
and the newly established republican order."
The main
opposition party, the Nepali Congress (NC) had cautioned
the Maoists not to sack the General. Other political
parties, prominently including the CPN-UML, also voiced
their concern. President Yadav had strongly advised
the Maoists against taking such a controversial step
without a political consensus. The Maoist Central Secretariat,
in its meeting on April 30, however, asked the Party’s
leadership to go ahead with the plan to dismiss the
General. It was a unilateral decision. The Cabinet meeting
that discussed the proposal had been boycotted by the
CPN-UML (with 103 seats in the CA), the Sadbhawana Party
(with nine seats), and the CPN-Sanyukta (with five seats,
while the the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (with 50 seats)
issued a note of dissent. The Cabinet decision to dismiss
General Katawal and to appoint second-in-command Lt.
Gen. Kul Bahadur Khadka to act as CoAS was, in effect,
the decision of a minority Government. Significantly,
General Katawal was due to retire in September 2009,
while Lt. Gen. Khadka, who was in favour of the Maoist
plan to integrate the PLA with the NA, was due to retire
in June 2009. The Maoist plan was, evidently, to get
rid of General Katawal who was unambiguously opposed
to Army integration, and to retain Lt. Gen. Khadka as
the CoAS by granting the latter an extension on the
calculus that he would facilitate the integration process,
which the Maoists fervently desired.
The other
political parties in Nepal, however, quickly closed
ranks. At least 20 of the 24 political parties in the
country pleaded with the President to undo the Cabinet
decision to prevent a total capture of power by the
Maoists. President Yadav, after consultation with various
political parties and constitutional experts, nullified
the Cabinet decision. The Maoists argued that the decision
to sack the CoAS was necessary to assert civilian supremacy
over the Army. The fact, however, remained that the
decision had much to do with General Katawal’s inflexible
opposition to the integration of Maoist armed cadres
into the Army.
The Maoist
design was fully confirmed with the surfacing of the
videotape of an address by Maoist Chairman Prachanda
to PLA combatants, which was telecast by the Kathmandu-based
Image Channel in the afternoon of May 3. The video grabs
were of a meeting held at Shaktikhor Cantonment in Chitwan
District on January 2, 2008, when the Maoists were an
important constituent of the Girija Prasad Koirala-led
Interim Government. The centrality of the plan to integrate
Maoist combatants with the Nepal Army within the broader
strategy of capturing national power was outlined, as
Prachanda chalked out the overall scheme of the revolution:
"The plan is to democratise the Army which means
to politicise the Army. It will take 5 to 7 years for
that. If we are really going to have integration the
way to do it is unit-wise so that our units remain with
us. This is important if we do it unit wise. We can
react if we are betrayed." Further, regarding the
verification of PLA combatants by the United Nations
Mission in Nepal (UNMIN), Prachanda claimed, "Speaking
honestly we were few earlier. We were 7,000 to 8,000.
If we had reported that, our number would have reduced
to 4,000 after verification. Instead, we claimed 35,000
and now we are 20,000. This is the truth." Explaining
the work of the party he said, "How is today’s
situation different from during the people’s war? Talking
of form, earlier you were holding the machine gun and,
killing or being killed. Today it seems like we are
chatting and sipping tea. The form is very different
but the gist is still the same. We are both taking the
revolution forward…"
The authenticity
of the video tapes was subsequently confirmed by Prachanda
himself, though he insisted that the scandal of their
broadcast was a "ploy against the peace process", claiming
that the context within which his remarks were made
was ‘different’, and had since changed.
Subsequent
to the fall of their Government, the Maoists decided
to agitate in Parliament and in the streets, until their
decision to dismiss the CoAS was implemented. The Constituent
Assembly members of the party decided not to allow any
business in Parliament until President Yadav apologised
before the House for his decision to ‘reinstate’ the
Army Chief – an expectation that remains unfulfilled.
The CPN-UML-led
coalition of 22 parties came to power in the wake of
the fall of the Maoist led coalition Government, but
has failed to inspire any confidence with regard to
its stability, though periodic assurances have been
articulated that the Government would not fall before
its full tenure. Indeed, Parliament could resume its
work on July 6 only after an ambiguously worded understanding
was reached between the Maoists and the CPN-UML that
the two parties would resolve their differences over
the contentious issue of "civilian supremacy"
within a month. Subsequently, however, Prime Minister
Madhav Kumar Nepal insisted that the July 6 bilateral
agreement between Maoists and the CPN-UML only said
the two parties would take measures to ‘resolve the
stalemate’, without any specific terms of resolution.
At the expiry of the deadline, as the stalemate was
not resolved, the Maoists renewed the threat of launching
a protest movement from Parliament and the streets.
It is
now clear that the Maoists are adamant that they would
not allow Parliament to pass the Seventh Amendment to
the Interim Constitution if Parliament does not take
up the President’s ‘unconstitutional’ reinstatement
of the dismissed CoAS for discussion. The Seventh Amendment,
with retrospective effect, is crucial to render a Supreme
Court order against Vice President Parmanad Jha infructuous.
Jha took the oath of office and secrecy in July 2008
in Hindi, provoking widespread protests from various
groups and a challenge in the Supreme Court. The Supreme
Court pronounced a verdict on August 23, 2009, directing
the Vice President to retake the oath in Nepali within
seven days, failing which his authority as Vice-President
would cease to exist. Given his declared unwillingness
to retake oath in Nepali, the Prime Minister, the President
and coalition partners attempted to prevail upon him
to respect the Supreme Court order. However, Jha refused
to budge from his position, refusing both the retake
the oath or to resign, claiming that the apex Court’s
decision was "against the spirit of the constitution,
democratic norms and people’s fundamental rights to
use their mother tongues". The Madheshi Janadhikar
Forum lauded Jha for reflecting the feelings and aspirations
of the Madheshi people. Meanwhile, the Government withdrew
state facilities, including VVIP security and salary,
provided to Jha after September 4. Unsurprisingly, the
United Madheshi Front, the joint forum of three Terai-based
parties – the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum, Terai Madhesh
Loktantrik Party and Sadbhawana Party – enforced a shutdown
in the Terai region on August 30, in protest against
the Supreme Court verdict disrupting normal life in
Siraha, Saptari, Morang, Sunsari, Rupendehi, Sarlahi,
Bara, Parsa, Rautahat, Mahottarai, Kapilvastu and Nawalparasi
Districts. The Maoists, however, insist that the issue
of civilian supremacy is far more important than the
controversy over the Vice President taking his oath
of office in Hindi.
As part
of their strategy to launch an agitation across the
country, the Maoists have started giving training to
about 800 party cadres in Rolpa and Rukum Districts.
Another training camp was organised by the party’s India
Regional Committee for expatriates at Butwal on August
25. More than 200 expatriate leaders and activists participated
in the training programme. Prachanda has reportedly
instructed party cadres to ‘retaliate’ if the Government
tries to suppress the party's agitation, and he believes
that the possibility of suppression is high, as it is
unlikely that the protests would pave the way for a
‘national unity Government’. In some Districts, the
Maoists have also reportedly established parallel local
Governments.
On August
3, 2009, the Maoists created a new party front – the
United National People's Movement (UNPM) – under party
Vice Chairman Baburam Bhattarai, to lead the series
of protests to dislodge the Madhav Kumar Nepal coalition
Government. Addressing its inaugural convention on August
19, 2009, Prachanda said, "We must form a comprehensive
united front to tackle reactionary and regressive forces
who are against the peace process and writing of the
statute." The 'comprehensive united front' the Maoists
aim to form will incorporate all those who are in favour
of 'civilian supremacy', national sovereignty, peace
and the constitution. The proposed movement is intended
by the Maoists to turn into a 'third people's movement'.
On October
23, the Unified CPN-Maoist gave a 9-day ultimatum to
the Government to address the demands raised by the
party regarding the President's move. A meeting of the
Maoist standing committee held at the party headquarters
set a November 1 deadline for the Government to come
up with an understanding on issues raised by the party.
The Maoists have warned they would launch a blockade
of Kathmandu Valley and the nation's only international
airport if their demands were not met by the deadline.
"We will not allow any aircraft to take off (from the
Tribhuvan International Airport) or any aircraft to
land," the Maoist daily Janadisha declared on
October 28, 2009. The Maoists, who have obstructed parliament
since May 2009, announced on October 30 that they would
take to the streets from November 2 with disruptive
protests once more, if the Government failed to concede
to their demands.
Amidst
these political developments, there are allegations
that the Maoists continue to subvert the peace process.
The Nepal Tarun Dal (NTD), the youth wing of Nepali
Congress, has, for instance, alleged that the Maoists
are using UNMIN monitored cantonments to launch attacks
on other political parties, and that it has become necessary
to close these down after removing all fake Maoist combatants.
In a Press statement on October 29, 2009, the NTD also
claimed that many of the individuals in the cantonments
were Maoist political cadres, not combatants.
In response
to the lingering violence in the country, under the
‘Special Security Programme 2066’, Special Security
task forces of between 10 and 20 Security Force (SF)
personnel are to be mobilised in 21 sensitive Districts,
including three in the Kathmandu Valley, to curb incidents
of killing, manhandling, kidnapping, extortion, highway
obstruction, rape and corruption in Government offices.
The Prachanda regime had identified four eastern hilly
Districts and 10 Terai Districts as security sensitive
areas. The new plan has identified another four Districts
– Dang, Banke, Kailali and Kanchanpur – as sensitive.
A report prepared by the Home Ministry noted that only
12 out of 109 armed groups active in the country were
political, while 70 of them were purely criminal in
orientation. The report had categorised armed groups
as political, religious, political criminal, religious
criminal and purely criminal. 12 groups, including the
Akhil Terai Mukti Morcha (Jaya Krishna Goit faction),
Kirant Janbadi Workers Party and Tharuhat Swayatta Rajya
Parishad, were categorised as political. Four groups,
including the Cobra (Nagraj) and Nepal Defence Army,
were placed in the religious criminal category, while
11 others were categorized as political-criminal groups.
The nature of eight armed groups could not be established,
the report added. The MJF has criticized the Special
Security Programme, alleging that it was intended to
‘oppress the Madhesis’. Speaking at a programme in Nepalgunj,
MJF Chairman Upendra Yadav said, "The new security
policy will increase violence and promote criminal activities
rather than strengthening security... The new policy
has been brought up intentionally to oppress Madhesis."
He further accused the Government of instigating the
Terai armed outfits instead of solving such matters
through negotiations. He contended that the situation
in the eastern Terai was deteriorating because of the
SF offensive against the armed groups.
However,
after four armed outfits operating in the Terai – Madhesi
Mukti Tigers (MMT), Madhesi Virus Killers (MVK), Terai
Samyukta Janatantrik Party and JTMM-Rajan – which had
held a first round of talks with the Unified CPN-Maoist
led Government, urged the Government to resume dialogue,
a preliminary round of talks was held on August 10,
2009. While it was agreed to resume talks the next day,
not much progress has since been made.
Meanwhile,
the arduous task of Constitution drafting is just creeping
forward. The Constituent Assembly has elected a new
chairman for the main Drafting Committee. The issue
of state restructuring is one of the many knotty issues
that needs to be taken care of. The Madheshi parties
have been demanding a single Madhesh province across
the plains. The Tharus, encouraged by other national
parties, have opposed this demand and said they want
a separate province in the plains. The Government issued
an official notification and, without consultations,
put the Tharus in the list of Madheshi communities,
provoking widespread protests. The Maoists have proposed
14 predominantly ethnicity-based provinces. The Nepali
Congress and Communist Party of Nepal (Unified-Marxist
Leninist), meanwhile, still do not have a roadmap for
federalism, though they explicitly oppose ethnic states.
Compared
to the bloody decade of war, Nepal is certainly a place
of great calm today. The Maoists do not appear to have
the necessary traction to sustain a ‘third people’s
movement’ at a scale that would threaten the fragile
order with collapse. Nevertheless, with the continuing
deadlock in Parliament, and the diminishing authority
of the Madhav Kumar Nepal Government at Kathmandu, the
spectre of augmenting chaos looms large over the country.
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Nagaland:
Fading Fratricide
Sandipani Dash
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
The Naga
insurgency in India's troubled Northeast has, over the
years, lapsed into fratricidal turf wars, and trends in
2009 demonstrate a continuation of this trajectory, though
the steady acceleration of violence since 2001 appears
to have been dramatically reversed. From a peak of 201
fatalities in 2008 – overwhelmingly resulting from fratricidal
clashes between the various militant factions – fell to
just 17 in 2009. Nevertheless, even at this diminished
intensity, Nagaland retains its third place in terms of
violence among the States of India's troubled Northeast,
behind Manipur (360) and Assam (336).
Insurgency-related
Fatalities in Nagaland: 2001-2009
Year
|
Civilians
|
SFs
|
Insurgents
|
Total
|
2001*
|
16
|
01
|
65
|
82
|
2002*
|
16
|
03
|
71
|
90
|
2003*
|
13
|
03
|
70
|
86
|
2004*
|
42
|
00
|
55
|
97
|
2005*
|
28
|
1
|
70
|
99
|
2006*
|
29
|
02
|
116
|
147
|
2007 *
|
44
|
01
|
109
|
154
|
2008**
|
68
|
03
|
130
|
201
|
2009***
|
7
|
0
|
10
|
17
|
*Union
Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), Government of India
**MHA and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) combined
***SATP - Data till October 30, 2009
Nagaland
registered 201 fatalities in 307 insurgency-related incidents
in 2008, according to combined sources of the MHA and
SATP.
Year 2009 has seen only 94 such incidents, claiming the
lives of 17 persons till November 1, according to the
SATP database. Insurgents comprise nearly 59 per cent
of total fatalities in 2009, with the entire number ascribed
to internecine clashes. The SATP database indicates that
nine insurgents were killed in 10 internecine clashes
in the State, of whom six cadres belonged to the National
Socialist Council of Nagalim–Khaplang NSCN-K),
one to National Socialist Council of Nagalim-Isak-Muivah
(NSCN-IM)
and two to the relatively insignificant Naga National
Council (NNC). All the internecine clashes were concentrated
in three of Nagaland’s 11 Districts. While seven such
clashes occurred in Dimapur, two clashes were reported
from Wokha and one from Kohima.
The Church-led
Naga Reconciliation Forum (NRF), with representations
from 42 community groups as well as the militant outfits,
orgainsed several reconciliatory meetings both within
and outside the country. Two such meetings were organised
at Chiang Mai in Thailand in June and September 2009.
The NSCN-IM, NSCN-K and NNC made a "declaration of commitment"
in the September meet, to "affirm our total commitment
to work together in the spirit of love, non-violence,
peace and respect to resolve outstanding issues among
us. Therefore, we pledge to cease all forms of offensive
activities in toto." Subsequent to this declaration, however,
at least three NSCN-K cadres have been killed by rival
NSCN-IM militants in Dimapur and Kohima, thus far.
The long-drawn
war of attrition has been waged under the camouflage of
extended cease-fire agreements, which the Union of Government
signed with the NSCN-IM in 1997 and the NSCN-K in 2001.
Nagaland Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio on September 2, 2009,
disclosed that some 1,040 persons had died in factional
fighting among the Naga insurgent groups during the cease-fire
period. In a meeting on law and order held at Kohima on
July 29, 2009, the Chief Minister observed that 12 years
of cease-fire had failed to make a headway and that more
factions had emerged, resulting in more illegal extortion
and other anti-social activities, the impact of which
had directly fallen upon the common people. Describing
the dysfunctional condition of the state apparatus, Home
Minister Imkong L. Imchen queried, at the same meeting,
"How long can we allow our officers to run the state under
threat?" He noted that officers were running the Government
under the threat of AK rifles and that even colony leaders
and gaoanburahs (village heads) were forced to
work for the armed militants. "We will not allow them
to threaten people anymore," the Home Minister declared,
conceding that there was little evidence of compliance
with the cease-fire ground rules, which stipulate that
the militants stay in designated camps, ban their movement
in uniform and with arms, and prohibit extortion.
What makes
the mockery of cease-fire ground rules much more glaring
is the frequent movement and encampment of armed cadres
in civilian-populated areas. Such acts are almost continuous,
but have been brought to prominent light on some occasions
as a result of stand-offs with the SFs. On February 4,
2009, for instance, the Assam Rifles (AR) dismantled six
unauthorised huts constructed by the NSCN-IM at Bade village
near the group’s ‘council headquarters’ at Dimapur. Similarly,
on March 4, AR personnel prevented the movement of two
groups of NSCN cadres from Phiro camp in the Wokha District
and another group from Mukalimi camp, towards Zunheboto.
The report confirmed that a group of NSCN cadres had gathered
at Kukiye village near Satakha. Again, on April 8, around
25-30 NSCN-K militants vacated Songsamong village near
Longkhim in Tuensang District due to pressure from the
AR. Further, on April 13, the AR forced an unauthorised
concentration of some 15-20 armed NSCN-IM cadres to vacate
the Ghaspani farm area and return to their designated
camp at Hebron in Dimapur. Extortion, moreover, remains
rampant across the State, with the various groups extracting
‘taxes’ and ‘levies’ on all residents and transients in
their areas of domination.
There is
spillover of the Naga insurgency into territories lying
beyond the Nagaland State borders. On July 28, 2009, Union
Home Minister P. Chidambaram expressed concern in Parliament
over the violation of the cease-fire agreements by the
NSCN-IM and NSCN-K elements active in the Tirap and Changlang
Districts of Arunachal Pradesh noting that, " despite
cease-fire arrangement with insurgent groups, violations
do happen and we have taken a grave notice of this." Fratricidal
violence between the Naga groups, in fact, carries over
into the neighbouring State of Arunachal Pradesh, where
the Assam-based United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA)
and the Manipur-based United National Liberation Front
(UNLF)
have also become party to area domination exercises by
the NSCN groupings. ULFA and UNLF had reportedly aligned
with the NSCN-K in its fight against the NSCN-IM for competitive
recruitment in the Naga populated regions of the State.
In one incident on March 12, at least four militants were
killed during a clash between the combined cadres of the
NSCN-K, UNLF and ULFA on one side, and the NSCN-IM on
the other, in Tirap District. Again on March 13, two NSCN-IM
militants and a cadre of the rival NSCN-K were killed
in two separate factional clashes in the same District.
On March 19, another clash between the NSCN-IM and NSCN-K
occurred at Lapnam village in Tirap District. While some
sources said two NSCN-IM militants were killed, others
source reported that three NSCN-K cadres were killed in
that clash. The NSCN-IM also targeted political activists
in the run-up to the Arunchal Pradesh Assembly Election
held on October 13, 2009. Beyond Arunachal Pradesh, Naga
groups, especially the NSCN-IM, continue to operate in
the States of Manipur, Assam and Tripura.
Parliamentary
elections were held in Nagaland on April 16, 2009, and
registered as much as 90.21 per cent polling in the State’s
lone Parliamentary constituency. While the election was
by and large peaceful, the NSCN-IM declared, "The NSCN/GPRN
has nothing to do with the Indian elections and hence
any provisions/clauses contained in the mutually agreed
ceasefire ground rules cannot be held in abeyance due
to conduct of Indian elections… therefore shall not have
any overriding effect on the ceasefire ground rules by
the code of conduct issued by the ECI (sic)."
The Union
Government decided to hold direct negotiations with the
NSCN-IM and has not extended the term of former Union
Home Secretary K. Padmanabhaiah as interlocutor for peace
talks with the Naga outfit. "The term of Padmanabhaiah,
who has served as interlocutor for a decade, has come
to an end on Monday [August 31, 2009]. We have decided
not to extend his tenure. Now onwards, the Government
will talk directly to NSCN (IM)," an unnamed senior MHA
official stated. Meanwhile, the NSCN-IM refuted a statement
of the Union Home Secretary G.K. Pillai that both the
NSCN-IM and the Government had come to an understanding
for autonomy under the Constitution of India. While the
Centre extended the cease-fire with the NSCN-K by another
year from April 24, 2009, the outfit reportedly modified
its stand saying "sovereignty" could be redefined once
the negotiation begins with the Government.
The Nagaland
Police boasts a Police-population ratio of 475 Policemen
per 100,000. While this is lower than Manipur (627), it
is dramatically higher than Assam (176), and the national
average, at 125. Similarly, Police density (Policemen
per 100 square kilometer area) stands at 62.2 for Nagaland.
While this is lower than Assam (66.4) and Manipur (73.2),
it is significantly higher than the national average (45.0).
On Police modernisation, available data indicates that
Nagaland's utilisation of central funds between 2000-01
and 2003-04 was 100 per cent, against an allocation of
INR 472.5 million [In 2004-05, the usage was 68.98 per
cent, with incomplete utilisation figures, and an allocation
of INR 130.9 million]. The impact of relative Police strength
and 'modernisation', however, has yet to impose a measure
of order in the conflict-riven State.
A new complication
has now emerged in the trajectory of the Naga insurgency,
with the intervention of a new player – the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami
(HUJI)
– in the State. Addressing the Chief Ministers’ Conference
on internal security in New Delhi on August 17, 2009,
Nagaland Chief Minister disclosed that "NSCN-IM operatives
from the Muslim community have been maintaining direct
or indirect links with extremist groups such as Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami
(HuJI) and other criminal elements suspected to be having
links with terrorist organizations…. there is strong possibility
of Islamic extremists establishing ‘sleeper cells’ in
Nagaland by taking advantage of their contacts inside
the State." The actual ramifications of this evolving
nexus are yet to be manifested in Nagaland, but this development
will certainly add to the chronic headache the insurgency
has given to India’s security managers for decades.
|
Weekly
Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
October
26-November 1,
2009
|
Civilian
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorist/Insurgent
|
Total
|
INDIA
|
|
Assam
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
3
|
Manipur
|
1
|
3
|
11
|
15
|
Jammu and Kashmir
|
0
|
2
|
11
|
13
|
Left-wing Extremism
|
|
Andhra Pradesh
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
3
|
Chhattisgarh
|
4
|
1
|
0
|
5
|
Jharkhand
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
West Bengal
|
8
|
0
|
2
|
10
|
Total (INDIA)
|
16
|
6
|
28
|
50
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Balochistan
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
FATA
|
3
|
20
|
206
|
229
|
NWFP
|
118
|
1
|
24
|
143
|
Total (PAKISTAN)
|
122
|
21
|
230
|
373
|
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.
|
INDIA
Government
is willing to hold talks for peace in Jammu and Kashmir,
says Prime Minister Manmohan Singh: Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh said on October 28, 2009 that the Government
was willing to talk to anyone for peace in Jammu and Kashmir.
The public sentiment was for peace and peaceful resolution
of all problems and the era of violence and terrorism was
coming to an end, he added. "When I came to office in 2004,
I said our Government is committed to having unconditional
dialogue with whoever abjures violence. We had discussions
with different groups. We had a number of roundtable conferences.
All issues were discussed. We tried to give voice to the
demands of all sections of the people. We have implemented
a number of initiatives as a result of this process," he
said at a public meeting in Wanpoh in the Anantnag District
of Jammu and Kashmir. "I wish to say again today that we
are willing to talk to anyone who has any meaningful ideas
for promoting peace and development in Kashmir. We want
to carry all sections of the people with us in resolving
the political and economic problems of Jammu and Kashmir,"
he said. Later Dr. Singh inaugurated the Anantnag-Qazigund
Railway link.
The Prime
Minister also asserted that India will insist on Pakistan
taking action against the terrorist network on its soil.
He said, "We will press Pakistan to curb the activities
of those elements engaged in terrorism against India. If
they are non-state actors, it is the solemn duty of the
Government of Pakistan to bring them to book, destroy their
camps and eliminate their infrastructure. The perpetrators
of acts of terror must pay the heaviest penalty for their
barbaric crimes against humanity." Dr. Singh also said it
was a misplaced idea that one could reach a compromise with
the ideology of terrorists or that they could be used for
one’s own political purpose. "Eventually, they turn against
you and bring only death and destruction. The real face
of the terrorists is clear for the people of Pakistan to
see with their own eyes," he opined.
The
Hindu, October 29, 2009.
PAKISTAN
206 militants
and 20 soldiers among 229 persons killed during the week
in FATA: The Security Forces (SFs) killed 16 Tehrik-e-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP) militants and injured 10 others in clashes
on November 1, 2009 during, Operation Rah-e-Nijat in
the South Waziristan Agency. In the battle to control Sararogha,
one of the main strongholds of the TTP chief Hakeemullah
Mehsud, the SFs killed six militants and injured four others.
Further, aerial strikes in Ladha, Saam, Gadawai, Maidaan
and Makeen killed five militants and injured three others.
Four TTP hideouts were also destroyed in the air-strikes.
The SFs are also reported to have captured Kaniguram, a
town with a population of 30,000, and seized heavy weapons
during a door-to-door search operation. Separately, two
civilians were killed as a mortar shell landed in the Alacha
area of Landikotal, a sub-division of Khyber Agency, during
an exchange of fire with militants late on October 31.
33 Taliban
militants were killed in the battle for control of the Sararogha
area on October 31, an Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR)
statement said. Four Army personnel were injured in the
attack. "Security forces have entered Sararogha," the statement
added. "The town has been surrounded from all three entry
points. All the key positions and ridges around Sararogha
have been taken over by security forces," it said. Separately,
Pakistan Air Force fighter planes bombed militant hideouts
in the Orakzai and Kurram Agencies of FATA, killing 15 Taliban
militants on October 31. Official sources said jet fighters
bombed three suspected hideouts of the TTP chief Hakeemullah
Mehsud in Orakzai, killing at least eight Taliban militants
and wounding several others. They said another air strike
in Kurram killed seven militants. In addition, one militant
was killed and several injured in clashes between SFs and
the Taliban in Bajaur.
Seven SF
personnel were killed and 12 were injured when Taliban militants
attacked their vehicle using a remote-controlled bomb in
the Sur Dhand area of Bara in the Khyber Agency on October
31.
14 Taliban
militants and two soldiers were killed on the 14th
day of Operation Rah-e-Nijat in South Waziristan
Agency on October 30. All 14 militants were killed along
the Jandola-Sararogha axis, with troops advancing towards
and securing an important area west of Dralima and northwest
of Ahnei Kalle. Two soldiers were killed when the militants
fired mortar shells. "On the Shakai-Kaniguram axis, Forces
secured... ridge point 6,954 – 3 kilometres north of Kundmela
and 2 kilometres west of Kaniguram," an ISPR statement said.
Further, the ISPR said a clearance operation was underway
in Khaikaeh Narai and surrounding areas. In addition, fighter
jets are reported to have bombed Taliban positions in Kaniguram
and Makeen. Separately, two Taliban militants were killed
when tribesmen retaliated against an attack on the chief
of a peace committee, and a peace volunteer was injured
in crossfire in the Baizai sub-division of Mohmand Agency
on October 30.
The SFs said
they had killed 11 militants and lost one soldier with two
others injured on October 29, the 13th day of
Operation Rah-e-Nijat. However, reporters and cameramen
of television channels flown to South Waziristan and taken
on a guided visit to several points quoted the SFs as claiming
that 82 militants were killed in the fighting. Local sources
said the troops had surrounded Kaniguram village and were
preparing to secure control of Masp Mela, Asman Manza and
Karwan Manza. Fierce clashes were reported from Ahmadwam
area near Srarogha. Local sources said 20 militants were
killed in the clash in Ahmadwam. They did not mention casualties
among the troops.
The SFs were
only a few kilometres from Sararogha, the TTP stronghold,
on the 12th day of Operation Rah-e-Nijat,
on October 28. Sources said some militants were fleeing
to North Waziristan from the Srarogha side and via the Shawal
Road from Makeen due to increased pressure from the advancing
troops. Local sources added that the troops were heading
for Sararogha after getting full control of Kotkai and securing
the surrounding areas and ridges. The ISPR said 25 militants
were killed and a huge cache of arms and ammunition was
recovered. Separately, four suspected militants were killed
and three others injured in a clash with the SFs in Mohmand
Agency on October 28.
On October
27, SFs claimed killing 42 militants, raising the toll to
240 since the launch of Operation Rah-e-Nijat on
October 17. The troops admitted losing one soldier and injuries
to two others as they advanced on the militants’ strongholds
of Sararogha, Makeen and Ladha from three directions, using
Wana, Jandola and Razmak as their rear bases. Tribal sources
said the troops were facing stiff resistance during their
advance towards Sararogha, Hakeemullah Mehsud’s stronghold,
after the capture of Kotkai, Sherwangai, Chalweshtai and
other small villages and mountain ridges. Separately, 11
militants and two soldiers were killed during an encounter
between the SFs and militants in the Baizai tehsil (revenue
division) of Mohmand Agency in the night of October 26.
The militants attacked a check post in the Baidmani area
of Baizai, triggering an attack by the SFs in which 11 militants
and two soldiers were killed and two others injured. In
addition, unidentified persons killed an active member of
the tribal Lashkar (militia) in Khar, headquarters
of the Bajaur Agency, on October 27.
Continuing
their advance from three sides on the TTP strongholds of
Sararogha, Ladha and Makeen on the 10th day of
Operation Rah-e-Nijat, the SFs claimed killing 19
militants in three separate clashes on October 26. Six Army
soldiers were also killed while 20 others sustained injuries
during clashes between the two sides in the Gharlai, Sarwek,
Shaga and Sharkai Sar areas. In their advance from three
sides over the past 10 days, the SFs have captured Kotkai,
village of the TTP chief Hakeemullah Mehsud and his cousin
and suicide bombers’ trainer Qari Hussain, along with Sherwangai,
Nawazkot, Chalweshtai and some key ridges. However, the
troops faced tough resistance on the 10th day
in their advance towards Sararogha.
Separately,
nine militants were killed during clashes with the SFs in
different areas of the Bajaur Agency on October 26. Sources
said about 15 militants attacked a security post in the
Mattak area near the Afghan border on October 25 and killed
a Junior Commissioned Officer and three other SF personnel.
Two SF personnel also sustained injuries in the attack.
Troops subsequently fired back, killing six militants and
injuring four others. According to official sources, the
militants fired seven missiles on security posts in Tawheedabad
and Sadiqabad and a base in Bilalabad. However, the missiles
caused no damage or casualty. Three militants were killed
and one was injured in an exchange of fire which continued
for over an hour. In addition, the SFs claimed to have killed
four militants and injured six others in aerial bombardments
carried out at Mamozai area in Orakzai Agency on October
26. Dawn;
Daily
Times; The
News, October 27-November 2, 2009.
118 civilians
and 24 militants among 143 persons killed during the week
in NWFP: A remote-controlled car
bomb killed at least 118 people – including women and children
– and injured more than 200 others at the Meena Bazaar in
Peshawar, capital of the North West Frontier Province (NWFP),
on October 28. Bomb disposal squad chief Shafqat Malik told
reporters that 150 kilograms of explosives were used in
the remote-controlled blast. According to AFP, the
explosion brought down buildings. A three-storey building
and a mosque, Masjid Umme Habiba, situated in the narrow
bazaar, caved in while six other structures were engulfed
by a huge fire caused by the explosion. Around 12 houses
and over 60 shops were gutted while almost 300 other shops
and houses were severely damaged due to the powerful explosion
at around 12:40 pm. The Meena Bazaar is famous for women’s
dresses, cosmetics and children’s garments. Minister Iftikhar
Hussain told journalists that the blast was linked with
the ongoing military operation in South Waziristan against
the Taliban, saying, "foreign terrorists – including Arabs,
Chechens and Uzbeks – stationed in Waziristan are carrying
out attacks in Pashtun areas". However, no group claimed
responsibility for the bombing.
16 militants were killed
and 23 others wounded during a joint operation by the Army
and Frontier Constabulary in the Tora Warai area of Hangu
District on October 25 and 26. 54 militants, including some
Afghans, were arrested during the operation. According to
officials, security officer Abdul Jaffar was killed and
seven other SF personnel sustained injuries in the operation
which was launched after an attack by militants on a military
check-post in Tora Warai late on October 25. Hundreds of
militants of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan from Orakzai
Agency and Hangu reportedly took part in the attack. Troops
repulsed the attack after a gun-battle which continued for
about two hours. Officials told Dawn that militants
had taken away the bodies of their colleagues and the injured.
Six hideouts of the militants were destroyed in Tora Warai
and a large quantity of arms and ammunition, including two
rocket-launchers, five rockets, two grenades, three shotguns,
two rifles, four pistols and automatic weapons, was seized.
Further, eight bodies of
suspected militants were recovered in the Swat District
on October 26. Four bodies were reportedly found dumped
in the Khwazakhela area, official sources said. Dawn;
Daily
Times; The
News, October 27-November 2, 2009.
Militants
who attacked UN guesthouse in Kabul came from Pakistan,
says Afghan intelligence: The
suicide attack at a United Nations guesthouse in Kabul on
October 28, 2009, was a joint operation directed by an Afghan
warlord based in the tribal areas of Pakistan and an Al
Qaeda operative, the Afghan intelligence Director said.
The intelligence official, Amrullah Saleh, said six Afghan
suspects had been arrested, including an imam (prayer
leader) who had provided a hideaway for the attackers. He
said the suspects had said that the three suicide attackers
were all from the Swat Valley in the North West Frontier
Province of Pakistan. Saleh said the operation was jointly
directed. One group was the Haqqani network, a Taliban-affiliated
organization led by Jalaluddin Haqqani and his son Sirajuddin,
which is based in North Waziristan, and the other leader
was an Al Qaeda operative known as Ajmal, who fled to the
Waziristan area. 11 persons, including five UN personnel,
were killed in the attack.
Times
of India, November
2, 2009.
No evidence
on India's involvement in Balochistan, says US Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton: The
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said that the
US does not have any evidence of India's involvement in
Balochistan amid Pakistan's allegation that New Delhi was
fomenting trouble in the province. "Well, first of all,
we have no evidence of that. I mean, we just have no evidence
of that," Clinton said in reply to a question that many
Pakistanis believe that India is fomenting trouble in Balochistan.
"So from our perspective, we believe that anything like
that, any charge that might be made like that and Balochistan,
as you know, is a very volatile region," [THIS MAKES NO
SENSE. SEE OTHER REPORTS TO GET ACTUAL STATEMENT] she said
during her interaction with Pakistani editors in Lahore
on October 29-night. Clinton said she has not seen any evidence
from Pakistan about India's involvement in Balochistan.
Rediff, October 31, 2009.
Rediff, October
31, 2009.
FBI neutralises
Lashkar-e-Toiba plot to use American for attacks in India
and Denmark:US investigating agencies
have neutralised a plot by the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Toiba
(LeT) to use an American national for terrorist attacks
in Denmark and India. The man, identified as David Coleman
Headley, was one of two suspects arrested early in October
2009 by FBI's Joint Terrorism Task Force at Chicago's O'Hare
International Airport before he boarded a flight to Philadelphia,
from where he was intending to travel to Pakistan to meet
Pakistani terrorist handlers, including the fugitive Ilyas
Kashmiri. Headley's partner in the terror plot, which included
plans to attack the Danish newspaper that published cartoons
of Prophet Mohammed, was a Pakistani-Canadian named Tahawwur
Hussain Rana, also a resident of Chicago who was arrested
by the FBI on October 18.
According to the FBI affidavit
filed in a Chicago court, Headley was in close contact with
Ilyas Kashmiri and several unidentified leaders of LeT,
two of whom are identified as "LeT member A" and "Individual
A." He had visited Pakistan before to meet LeT handlers
and was returning there ostensibly to finalize plans for
strikes. "In July and August 2009, Headley exchanged a series
of e-mails with LeT Member A, including an exchange in which
Headley asked if the Denmark project was on hold, and whether
a visit to India that LeT member A had asked him to undertake
was for the purpose of surveying targets for a new terrorist
attack," the FBI said in its affidavit. "These e-mails reflect
that LeT Member A was placing a higher priority on using
Headley to assist in planning a new attack in India than
on completing the planned attack in Denmark," it said. Although
the affidavit named Kashmiri, it did not identify others
involved in the plot, referring to them as LeT member A
and Individual A. It said LeT member A "has substantial
influence and responsibility within the organization" and
his "identity is known to the Government."
Times
of India, November
2, 2009.
The
South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular
data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional
warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic,
political, and social issues, in the South Asian region. SAIR
is a project of the Institute
for Conflict Management and the
South
Asia Terrorism Portal.
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