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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 8, No. 17, November 2, 2009

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT


NEPAL
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Troubled Calm
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

2008 saw the end of monarchy and formation of the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal; 2009 has been marred by multiple crises facing the infant republic. As the year nears its end, Nepal finds itself in the midst of a worsening political deadlock precipitated by the fall of the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (Unified CPN-Maoist)-led Government on May 4, 2009, and the lack of adequate strength of the incumbent Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML)-led 22-party coalition.

The year saw at least 49 fatalities in extremist-related violence, including 35 civilians, one trooper and 13 militants. Among the slain militants were cadres from the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist) as well as rebels of different groups operating in the Terai region. There were at least two major incidents (involving the deaths of three or more persons). On September 6, three persons were killed and five others injured in a bomb blast at the house of one Harka Bahadur’s house in Malakheti Village Development Committee (VDC) area in the Kailali District. On April 16, three persons, including two members of a family, had been killed by an unidentified group in the Mabu VDC area of Ilam District.

Fatalities in Nepal, 2005-2009

Year

Civilians
SFs
Insurgents
Total

2009*

35
1
13
49

2008

55
1
25
81

2007

57
0
40
97

2006

61
181
238
480

2005

231
310
1307
1848
Source: Institute for Conflict Management
* Data till November 01, 2009

Clearly, however, the declining trajectory of violence since the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) has been sustained. Indeed, despite widespread apprehensions in the wake of the collapse of the Maoist-led coalition Government in May 2009, there has been no escalation. The absence of violence, however, has failed to establish a sense and promise of an enduring stability in this Himalayan state.

Though the quick fall of the Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda-led Maoist Government was a unexpected, the growing distrust between the Maoists and the then-ruling coalition partner UML and the opposition Nepali Congress (NC) was palpable much earlier, jeopardizing even the semblance of consensual politics. The non-Maoist parties had, in fact, become skeptical about the stated Maoist commitment to transform this radical formation into a democratic force. While they were in power, moreover, the Maoists did little to build confidence, using all avenues available to consolidate their position in Nepali politics. The hiatus widened even further as a result of the core conflict over the issue of integration of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) combatants with the Nepal Army.

The issue of Army integration was to be managed by the Army Integration Special Committee set up in October 2008 and headed by then Prime Minister Prachanda, but with the participation of all key parties. The Army, however, announced a round of recruitment in November 2008. This was blocked off by the Defence Minister, who claimed the move violated terms of the comprehensive peace accord. The then-Chief of Army Staff (CoAS), General Rookmangud Katawal, clarified that the recruitment was intended only to fill existing positions, and this had been done earlier as well. Ignoring the Defence Minister, the Army went ahead with the process. The PLA retaliated by announcing its own recruitment. The case went to the Supreme Court, which subsequently ordered the PLA to halt recruitment immediately, and the Nepal Army (NA), not to recruit in future. This was followed soon after by the refusal of the Government to extend the terms of eight Brigadier Generals, despite a strong recommendation by General Katawal. The officers went to court and obtained a stay order, which reinstated them. The third incident – which is believed to have made Prachanda personally furious – was when the Nepal Army partially withdrew from the National Games when the Government decided to allow the PLA to participate.

A political crisis finally erupted when the Unified CPN-Maoist led Government, having clear intensions of removing the CoAS, sought a clarification from him on April 20, within 24-hours, for "disobedience of the Government decisions" on three issues – recruitment in the Army, extension of the tenure of eight Brigadiers, and the Army’s withdrawal from some of the events at the Fifth National Games in which the PLA was participating. The CoAS did reply to the accusations and, predictably, his response was not found to be satisfactory and he was sacked. But the President, Dr. Ram Baran Yadav, as the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, asked the CoAS to continue in office, overriding the Maoist decision to dismiss him. The President declared that the CoAS’ dismissal by the Cabinet did not "meet the constitutional requirements and due process."

After failing to get his way against General Katawal, Prachanda announced his resignation on May 4. In his address to the nation, Prachanda described the President’s move as "unconstitutional" and added that it was no longer appropriate for him to remain in the Government when there clearly existed "two ruling powers (the executive and the President)" in the country. Saying that a constitutional President had no right to block the decisions of an elected Government, he rued that the Presidential decision had "dealt a serious blow to democracy, peace process and the newly established republican order."

The main opposition party, the Nepali Congress (NC) had cautioned the Maoists not to sack the General. Other political parties, prominently including the CPN-UML, also voiced their concern. President Yadav had strongly advised the Maoists against taking such a controversial step without a political consensus. The Maoist Central Secretariat, in its meeting on April 30, however, asked the Party’s leadership to go ahead with the plan to dismiss the General. It was a unilateral decision. The Cabinet meeting that discussed the proposal had been boycotted by the CPN-UML (with 103 seats in the CA), the Sadbhawana Party (with nine seats), and the CPN-Sanyukta (with five seats, while the the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (with 50 seats) issued a note of dissent. The Cabinet decision to dismiss General Katawal and to appoint second-in-command Lt. Gen. Kul Bahadur Khadka to act as CoAS was, in effect, the decision of a minority Government. Significantly, General Katawal was due to retire in September 2009, while Lt. Gen. Khadka, who was in favour of the Maoist plan to integrate the PLA with the NA, was due to retire in June 2009. The Maoist plan was, evidently, to get rid of General Katawal who was unambiguously opposed to Army integration, and to retain Lt. Gen. Khadka as the CoAS by granting the latter an extension on the calculus that he would facilitate the integration process, which the Maoists fervently desired.

The other political parties in Nepal, however, quickly closed ranks. At least 20 of the 24 political parties in the country pleaded with the President to undo the Cabinet decision to prevent a total capture of power by the Maoists. President Yadav, after consultation with various political parties and constitutional experts, nullified the Cabinet decision. The Maoists argued that the decision to sack the CoAS was necessary to assert civilian supremacy over the Army. The fact, however, remained that the decision had much to do with General Katawal’s inflexible opposition to the integration of Maoist armed cadres into the Army.

The Maoist design was fully confirmed with the surfacing of the videotape of an address by Maoist Chairman Prachanda to PLA combatants, which was telecast by the Kathmandu-based Image Channel in the afternoon of May 3. The video grabs were of a meeting held at Shaktikhor Cantonment in Chitwan District on January 2, 2008, when the Maoists were an important constituent of the Girija Prasad Koirala-led Interim Government. The centrality of the plan to integrate Maoist combatants with the Nepal Army within the broader strategy of capturing national power was outlined, as Prachanda chalked out the overall scheme of the revolution: "The plan is to democratise the Army which means to politicise the Army. It will take 5 to 7 years for that. If we are really going to have integration the way to do it is unit-wise so that our units remain with us. This is important if we do it unit wise. We can react if we are betrayed." Further, regarding the verification of PLA combatants by the United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN), Prachanda claimed, "Speaking honestly we were few earlier. We were 7,000 to 8,000. If we had reported that, our number would have reduced to 4,000 after verification. Instead, we claimed 35,000 and now we are 20,000. This is the truth." Explaining the work of the party he said, "How is today’s situation different from during the people’s war? Talking of form, earlier you were holding the machine gun and, killing or being killed. Today it seems like we are chatting and sipping tea. The form is very different but the gist is still the same. We are both taking the revolution forward…"

The authenticity of the video tapes was subsequently confirmed by Prachanda himself, though he insisted that the scandal of their broadcast was a "ploy against the peace process", claiming that the context within which his remarks were made was ‘different’, and had since changed.

Subsequent to the fall of their Government, the Maoists decided to agitate in Parliament and in the streets, until their decision to dismiss the CoAS was implemented. The Constituent Assembly members of the party decided not to allow any business in Parliament until President Yadav apologised before the House for his decision to ‘reinstate’ the Army Chief – an expectation that remains unfulfilled.

The CPN-UML-led coalition of 22 parties came to power in the wake of the fall of the Maoist led coalition Government, but has failed to inspire any confidence with regard to its stability, though periodic assurances have been articulated that the Government would not fall before its full tenure. Indeed, Parliament could resume its work on July 6 only after an ambiguously worded understanding was reached between the Maoists and the CPN-UML that the two parties would resolve their differences over the contentious issue of "civilian supremacy" within a month. Subsequently, however, Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal insisted that the July 6 bilateral agreement between Maoists and the CPN-UML only said the two parties would take measures to ‘resolve the stalemate’, without any specific terms of resolution. At the expiry of the deadline, as the stalemate was not resolved, the Maoists renewed the threat of launching a protest movement from Parliament and the streets.

It is now clear that the Maoists are adamant that they would not allow Parliament to pass the Seventh Amendment to the Interim Constitution if Parliament does not take up the President’s ‘unconstitutional’ reinstatement of the dismissed CoAS for discussion. The Seventh Amendment, with retrospective effect, is crucial to render a Supreme Court order against Vice President Parmanad Jha infructuous. Jha took the oath of office and secrecy in July 2008 in Hindi, provoking widespread protests from various groups and a challenge in the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court pronounced a verdict on August 23, 2009, directing the Vice President to retake the oath in Nepali within seven days, failing which his authority as Vice-President would cease to exist. Given his declared unwillingness to retake oath in Nepali, the Prime Minister, the President and coalition partners attempted to prevail upon him to respect the Supreme Court order. However, Jha refused to budge from his position, refusing both the retake the oath or to resign, claiming that the apex Court’s decision was "against the spirit of the constitution, democratic norms and people’s fundamental rights to use their mother tongues". The Madheshi Janadhikar Forum lauded Jha for reflecting the feelings and aspirations of the Madheshi people. Meanwhile, the Government withdrew state facilities, including VVIP security and salary, provided to Jha after September 4. Unsurprisingly, the United Madheshi Front, the joint forum of three Terai-based parties – the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum, Terai Madhesh Loktantrik Party and Sadbhawana Party – enforced a shutdown in the Terai region on August 30, in protest against the Supreme Court verdict disrupting normal life in Siraha, Saptari, Morang, Sunsari, Rupendehi, Sarlahi, Bara, Parsa, Rautahat, Mahottarai, Kapilvastu and Nawalparasi Districts. The Maoists, however, insist that the issue of civilian supremacy is far more important than the controversy over the Vice President taking his oath of office in Hindi.

As part of their strategy to launch an agitation across the country, the Maoists have started giving training to about 800 party cadres in Rolpa and Rukum Districts. Another training camp was organised by the party’s India Regional Committee for expatriates at Butwal on August 25. More than 200 expatriate leaders and activists participated in the training programme. Prachanda has reportedly instructed party cadres to ‘retaliate’ if the Government tries to suppress the party's agitation, and he believes that the possibility of suppression is high, as it is unlikely that the protests would pave the way for a ‘national unity Government’. In some Districts, the Maoists have also reportedly established parallel local Governments.

On August 3, 2009, the Maoists created a new party front – the United National People's Movement (UNPM) – under party Vice Chairman Baburam Bhattarai, to lead the series of protests to dislodge the Madhav Kumar Nepal coalition Government. Addressing its inaugural convention on August 19, 2009, Prachanda said, "We must form a comprehensive united front to tackle reactionary and regressive forces who are against the peace process and writing of the statute." The 'comprehensive united front' the Maoists aim to form will incorporate all those who are in favour of 'civilian supremacy', national sovereignty, peace and the constitution. The proposed movement is intended by the Maoists to turn into a 'third people's movement'.

On October 23, the Unified CPN-Maoist gave a 9-day ultimatum to the Government to address the demands raised by the party regarding the President's move. A meeting of the Maoist standing committee held at the party headquarters set a November 1 deadline for the Government to come up with an understanding on issues raised by the party. The Maoists have warned they would launch a blockade of Kathmandu Valley and the nation's only international airport if their demands were not met by the deadline. "We will not allow any aircraft to take off (from the Tribhuvan International Airport) or any aircraft to land," the Maoist daily Janadisha declared on October 28, 2009. The Maoists, who have obstructed parliament since May 2009, announced on October 30 that they would take to the streets from November 2 with disruptive protests once more, if the Government failed to concede to their demands.

Amidst these political developments, there are allegations that the Maoists continue to subvert the peace process. The Nepal Tarun Dal (NTD), the youth wing of Nepali Congress, has, for instance, alleged that the Maoists are using UNMIN monitored cantonments to launch attacks on other political parties, and that it has become necessary to close these down after removing all fake Maoist combatants. In a Press statement on October 29, 2009, the NTD also claimed that many of the individuals in the cantonments were Maoist political cadres, not combatants.

In response to the lingering violence in the country, under the ‘Special Security Programme 2066’, Special Security task forces of between 10 and 20 Security Force (SF) personnel are to be mobilised in 21 sensitive Districts, including three in the Kathmandu Valley, to curb incidents of killing, manhandling, kidnapping, extortion, highway obstruction, rape and corruption in Government offices. The Prachanda regime had identified four eastern hilly Districts and 10 Terai Districts as security sensitive areas. The new plan has identified another four Districts – Dang, Banke, Kailali and Kanchanpur – as sensitive. A report prepared by the Home Ministry noted that only 12 out of 109 armed groups active in the country were political, while 70 of them were purely criminal in orientation. The report had categorised armed groups as political, religious, political criminal, religious criminal and purely criminal. 12 groups, including the Akhil Terai Mukti Morcha (Jaya Krishna Goit faction), Kirant Janbadi Workers Party and Tharuhat Swayatta Rajya Parishad, were categorised as political. Four groups, including the Cobra (Nagraj) and Nepal Defence Army, were placed in the religious criminal category, while 11 others were categorized as political-criminal groups. The nature of eight armed groups could not be established, the report added. The MJF has criticized the Special Security Programme, alleging that it was intended to ‘oppress the Madhesis’. Speaking at a programme in Nepalgunj, MJF Chairman Upendra Yadav said, "The new security policy will increase violence and promote criminal activities rather than strengthening security... The new policy has been brought up intentionally to oppress Madhesis." He further accused the Government of instigating the Terai armed outfits instead of solving such matters through negotiations. He contended that the situation in the eastern Terai was deteriorating because of the SF offensive against the armed groups.

However, after four armed outfits operating in the Terai – Madhesi Mukti Tigers (MMT), Madhesi Virus Killers (MVK), Terai Samyukta Janatantrik Party and JTMM-Rajan – which had held a first round of talks with the Unified CPN-Maoist led Government, urged the Government to resume dialogue, a preliminary round of talks was held on August 10, 2009. While it was agreed to resume talks the next day, not much progress has since been made.

Meanwhile, the arduous task of Constitution drafting is just creeping forward. The Constituent Assembly has elected a new chairman for the main Drafting Committee. The issue of state restructuring is one of the many knotty issues that needs to be taken care of. The Madheshi parties have been demanding a single Madhesh province across the plains. The Tharus, encouraged by other national parties, have opposed this demand and said they want a separate province in the plains. The Government issued an official notification and, without consultations, put the Tharus in the list of Madheshi communities, provoking widespread protests. The Maoists have proposed 14 predominantly ethnicity-based provinces. The Nepali Congress and Communist Party of Nepal (Unified-Marxist Leninist), meanwhile, still do not have a roadmap for federalism, though they explicitly oppose ethnic states.

Compared to the bloody decade of war, Nepal is certainly a place of great calm today. The Maoists do not appear to have the necessary traction to sustain a ‘third people’s movement’ at a scale that would threaten the fragile order with collapse. Nevertheless, with the continuing deadlock in Parliament, and the diminishing authority of the Madhav Kumar Nepal Government at Kathmandu, the spectre of augmenting chaos looms large over the country.

INDIA
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Nagaland: Fading Fratricide
Sandipani Dash
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

The Naga insurgency in India's troubled Northeast has, over the years, lapsed into fratricidal turf wars, and trends in 2009 demonstrate a continuation of this trajectory, though the steady acceleration of violence since 2001 appears to have been dramatically reversed. From a peak of 201 fatalities in 2008 – overwhelmingly resulting from fratricidal clashes between the various militant factions – fell to just 17 in 2009. Nevertheless, even at this diminished intensity, Nagaland retains its third place in terms of violence among the States of India's troubled Northeast, behind Manipur (360) and Assam (336).

Insurgency-related Fatalities in Nagaland: 2001-2009

Year

Civilians
SFs
Insurgents
Total

2001*

16
01
65
82

2002*

16
03
71
90

2003*

13
03
70
86

2004*

42
00
55
97

2005*

28
1
70
99

2006*

29
02
116
147

2007 *

44
01
109
154

2008**

68
03
130
201

2009***

7
0
10
17
*Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), Government of India
**MHA and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) combined
***SATP - Data till October 30, 2009

Nagaland registered 201 fatalities in 307 insurgency-related incidents in 2008, according to combined sources of the MHA and SATP. Year 2009 has seen only 94 such incidents, claiming the lives of 17 persons till November 1, according to the SATP database. Insurgents comprise nearly 59 per cent of total fatalities in 2009, with the entire number ascribed to internecine clashes. The SATP database indicates that nine insurgents were killed in 10 internecine clashes in the State, of whom six cadres belonged to the National Socialist Council of Nagalim–Khaplang NSCN-K), one to National Socialist Council of Nagalim-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) and two to the relatively insignificant Naga National Council (NNC). All the internecine clashes were concentrated in three of Nagaland’s 11 Districts. While seven such clashes occurred in Dimapur, two clashes were reported from Wokha and one from Kohima.

The Church-led Naga Reconciliation Forum (NRF), with representations from 42 community groups as well as the militant outfits, orgainsed several reconciliatory meetings both within and outside the country. Two such meetings were organised at Chiang Mai in Thailand in June and September 2009. The NSCN-IM, NSCN-K and NNC made a "declaration of commitment" in the September meet, to "affirm our total commitment to work together in the spirit of love, non-violence, peace and respect to resolve outstanding issues among us. Therefore, we pledge to cease all forms of offensive activities in toto." Subsequent to this declaration, however, at least three NSCN-K cadres have been killed by rival NSCN-IM militants in Dimapur and Kohima, thus far.

The long-drawn war of attrition has been waged under the camouflage of extended cease-fire agreements, which the Union of Government signed with the NSCN-IM in 1997 and the NSCN-K in 2001. Nagaland Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio on September 2, 2009, disclosed that some 1,040 persons had died in factional fighting among the Naga insurgent groups during the cease-fire period. In a meeting on law and order held at Kohima on July 29, 2009, the Chief Minister observed that 12 years of cease-fire had failed to make a headway and that more factions had emerged, resulting in more illegal extortion and other anti-social activities, the impact of which had directly fallen upon the common people. Describing the dysfunctional condition of the state apparatus, Home Minister Imkong L. Imchen queried, at the same meeting, "How long can we allow our officers to run the state under threat?" He noted that officers were running the Government under the threat of AK rifles and that even colony leaders and gaoanburahs (village heads) were forced to work for the armed militants. "We will not allow them to threaten people anymore," the Home Minister declared, conceding that there was little evidence of compliance with the cease-fire ground rules, which stipulate that the militants stay in designated camps, ban their movement in uniform and with arms, and prohibit extortion.

What makes the mockery of cease-fire ground rules much more glaring is the frequent movement and encampment of armed cadres in civilian-populated areas. Such acts are almost continuous, but have been brought to prominent light on some occasions as a result of stand-offs with the SFs. On February 4, 2009, for instance, the Assam Rifles (AR) dismantled six unauthorised huts constructed by the NSCN-IM at Bade village near the group’s ‘council headquarters’ at Dimapur. Similarly, on March 4, AR personnel prevented the movement of two groups of NSCN cadres from Phiro camp in the Wokha District and another group from Mukalimi camp, towards Zunheboto. The report confirmed that a group of NSCN cadres had gathered at Kukiye village near Satakha. Again, on April 8, around 25-30 NSCN-K militants vacated Songsamong village near Longkhim in Tuensang District due to pressure from the AR. Further, on April 13, the AR forced an unauthorised concentration of some 15-20 armed NSCN-IM cadres to vacate the Ghaspani farm area and return to their designated camp at Hebron in Dimapur. Extortion, moreover, remains rampant across the State, with the various groups extracting ‘taxes’ and ‘levies’ on all residents and transients in their areas of domination.

There is spillover of the Naga insurgency into territories lying beyond the Nagaland State borders. On July 28, 2009, Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram expressed concern in Parliament over the violation of the cease-fire agreements by the NSCN-IM and NSCN-K elements active in the Tirap and Changlang Districts of Arunachal Pradesh noting that, " despite cease-fire arrangement with insurgent groups, violations do happen and we have taken a grave notice of this." Fratricidal violence between the Naga groups, in fact, carries over into the neighbouring State of Arunachal Pradesh, where the Assam-based United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and the Manipur-based United National Liberation Front (UNLF) have also become party to area domination exercises by the NSCN groupings. ULFA and UNLF had reportedly aligned with the NSCN-K in its fight against the NSCN-IM for competitive recruitment in the Naga populated regions of the State. In one incident on March 12, at least four militants were killed during a clash between the combined cadres of the NSCN-K, UNLF and ULFA on one side, and the NSCN-IM on the other, in Tirap District. Again on March 13, two NSCN-IM militants and a cadre of the rival NSCN-K were killed in two separate factional clashes in the same District. On March 19, another clash between the NSCN-IM and NSCN-K occurred at Lapnam village in Tirap District. While some sources said two NSCN-IM militants were killed, others source reported that three NSCN-K cadres were killed in that clash. The NSCN-IM also targeted political activists in the run-up to the Arunchal Pradesh Assembly Election held on October 13, 2009. Beyond Arunachal Pradesh, Naga groups, especially the NSCN-IM, continue to operate in the States of Manipur, Assam and Tripura.

Parliamentary elections were held in Nagaland on April 16, 2009, and registered as much as 90.21 per cent polling in the State’s lone Parliamentary constituency. While the election was by and large peaceful, the NSCN-IM declared, "The NSCN/GPRN has nothing to do with the Indian elections and hence any provisions/clauses contained in the mutually agreed ceasefire ground rules cannot be held in abeyance due to conduct of Indian elections… therefore shall not have any overriding effect on the ceasefire ground rules by the code of conduct issued by the ECI (sic)."

The Union Government decided to hold direct negotiations with the NSCN-IM and has not extended the term of former Union Home Secretary K. Padmanabhaiah as interlocutor for peace talks with the Naga outfit. "The term of Padmanabhaiah, who has served as interlocutor for a decade, has come to an end on Monday [August 31, 2009]. We have decided not to extend his tenure. Now onwards, the Government will talk directly to NSCN (IM)," an unnamed senior MHA official stated. Meanwhile, the NSCN-IM refuted a statement of the Union Home Secretary G.K. Pillai that both the NSCN-IM and the Government had come to an understanding for autonomy under the Constitution of India. While the Centre extended the cease-fire with the NSCN-K by another year from April 24, 2009, the outfit reportedly modified its stand saying "sovereignty" could be redefined once the negotiation begins with the Government.

The Nagaland Police boasts a Police-population ratio of 475 Policemen per 100,000. While this is lower than Manipur (627), it is dramatically higher than Assam (176), and the national average, at 125. Similarly, Police density (Policemen per 100 square kilometer area) stands at 62.2 for Nagaland. While this is lower than Assam (66.4) and Manipur (73.2), it is significantly higher than the national average (45.0). On Police modernisation, available data indicates that Nagaland's utilisation of central funds between 2000-01 and 2003-04 was 100 per cent, against an allocation of INR 472.5 million [In 2004-05, the usage was 68.98 per cent, with incomplete utilisation figures, and an allocation of INR 130.9 million]. The impact of relative Police strength and 'modernisation', however, has yet to impose a measure of order in the conflict-riven State.

A new complication has now emerged in the trajectory of the Naga insurgency, with the intervention of a new player – the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) – in the State. Addressing the Chief Ministers’ Conference on internal security in New Delhi on August 17, 2009, Nagaland Chief Minister disclosed that "NSCN-IM operatives from the Muslim community have been maintaining direct or indirect links with extremist groups such as Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI) and other criminal elements suspected to be having links with terrorist organizations…. there is strong possibility of Islamic extremists establishing ‘sleeper cells’ in Nagaland by taking advantage of their contacts inside the State." The actual ramifications of this evolving nexus are yet to be manifested in Nagaland, but this development will certainly add to the chronic headache the insurgency has given to India’s security managers for decades.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
October 26-November 1, 2009

 

Civilian

Security Force Personnel

Terrorist/Insurgent

Total

INDIA

 

Assam

1
0
2
3

Manipur

1
3
11
15

Jammu and Kashmir

0
2
11
13

Left-wing Extremism

 

Andhra Pradesh

1
0
2
3

Chhattisgarh

4
1
0
5

Jharkhand

1
0
0
1

West Bengal

8
0
2
10

Total (INDIA)

16
6
28
50

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

1
0
0
1

FATA

3
20
206
229

NWFP

118
1
24
143

Total (PAKISTAN)

122
21
230
373
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


INDIA

Government is willing to hold talks for peace in Jammu and Kashmir, says Prime Minister Manmohan Singh: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on October 28, 2009 that the Government was willing to talk to anyone for peace in Jammu and Kashmir. The public sentiment was for peace and peaceful resolution of all problems and the era of violence and terrorism was coming to an end, he added. "When I came to office in 2004, I said our Government is committed to having unconditional dialogue with whoever abjures violence. We had discussions with different groups. We had a number of roundtable conferences. All issues were discussed. We tried to give voice to the demands of all sections of the people. We have implemented a number of initiatives as a result of this process," he said at a public meeting in Wanpoh in the Anantnag District of Jammu and Kashmir. "I wish to say again today that we are willing to talk to anyone who has any meaningful ideas for promoting peace and development in Kashmir. We want to carry all sections of the people with us in resolving the political and economic problems of Jammu and Kashmir," he said. Later Dr. Singh inaugurated the Anantnag-Qazigund Railway link.

The Prime Minister also asserted that India will insist on Pakistan taking action against the terrorist network on its soil. He said, "We will press Pakistan to curb the activities of those elements engaged in terrorism against India. If they are non-state actors, it is the solemn duty of the Government of Pakistan to bring them to book, destroy their camps and eliminate their infrastructure. The perpetrators of acts of terror must pay the heaviest penalty for their barbaric crimes against humanity." Dr. Singh also said it was a misplaced idea that one could reach a compromise with the ideology of terrorists or that they could be used for one’s own political purpose. "Eventually, they turn against you and bring only death and destruction. The real face of the terrorists is clear for the people of Pakistan to see with their own eyes," he opined. The Hindu, October 29, 2009.


PAKISTAN

206 militants and 20 soldiers among 229 persons killed during the week in FATA: The Security Forces (SFs) killed 16 Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants and injured 10 others in clashes on November 1, 2009 during, Operation Rah-e-Nijat in the South Waziristan Agency. In the battle to control Sararogha, one of the main strongholds of the TTP chief Hakeemullah Mehsud, the SFs killed six militants and injured four others. Further, aerial strikes in Ladha, Saam, Gadawai, Maidaan and Makeen killed five militants and injured three others. Four TTP hideouts were also destroyed in the air-strikes. The SFs are also reported to have captured Kaniguram, a town with a population of 30,000, and seized heavy weapons during a door-to-door search operation. Separately, two civilians were killed as a mortar shell landed in the Alacha area of Landikotal, a sub-division of Khyber Agency, during an exchange of fire with militants late on October 31.

33 Taliban militants were killed in the battle for control of the Sararogha area on October 31, an Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) statement said. Four Army personnel were injured in the attack. "Security forces have entered Sararogha," the statement added. "The town has been surrounded from all three entry points. All the key positions and ridges around Sararogha have been taken over by security forces," it said. Separately, Pakistan Air Force fighter planes bombed militant hideouts in the Orakzai and Kurram Agencies of FATA, killing 15 Taliban militants on October 31. Official sources said jet fighters bombed three suspected hideouts of the TTP chief Hakeemullah Mehsud in Orakzai, killing at least eight Taliban militants and wounding several others. They said another air strike in Kurram killed seven militants. In addition, one militant was killed and several injured in clashes between SFs and the Taliban in Bajaur.

Seven SF personnel were killed and 12 were injured when Taliban militants attacked their vehicle using a remote-controlled bomb in the Sur Dhand area of Bara in the Khyber Agency on October 31.

14 Taliban militants and two soldiers were killed on the 14th day of Operation Rah-e-Nijat in South Waziristan Agency on October 30. All 14 militants were killed along the Jandola-Sararogha axis, with troops advancing towards and securing an important area west of Dralima and northwest of Ahnei Kalle. Two soldiers were killed when the militants fired mortar shells. "On the Shakai-Kaniguram axis, Forces secured... ridge point 6,954 – 3 kilometres north of Kundmela and 2 kilometres west of Kaniguram," an ISPR statement said. Further, the ISPR said a clearance operation was underway in Khaikaeh Narai and surrounding areas. In addition, fighter jets are reported to have bombed Taliban positions in Kaniguram and Makeen. Separately, two Taliban militants were killed when tribesmen retaliated against an attack on the chief of a peace committee, and a peace volunteer was injured in crossfire in the Baizai sub-division of Mohmand Agency on October 30.

The SFs said they had killed 11 militants and lost one soldier with two others injured on October 29, the 13th day of Operation Rah-e-Nijat. However, reporters and cameramen of television channels flown to South Waziristan and taken on a guided visit to several points quoted the SFs as claiming that 82 militants were killed in the fighting. Local sources said the troops had surrounded Kaniguram village and were preparing to secure control of Masp Mela, Asman Manza and Karwan Manza. Fierce clashes were reported from Ahmadwam area near Srarogha. Local sources said 20 militants were killed in the clash in Ahmadwam. They did not mention casualties among the troops.

The SFs were only a few kilometres from Sararogha, the TTP stronghold, on the 12th day of Operation Rah-e-Nijat, on October 28. Sources said some militants were fleeing to North Waziristan from the Srarogha side and via the Shawal Road from Makeen due to increased pressure from the advancing troops. Local sources added that the troops were heading for Sararogha after getting full control of Kotkai and securing the surrounding areas and ridges. The ISPR said 25 militants were killed and a huge cache of arms and ammunition was recovered. Separately, four suspected militants were killed and three others injured in a clash with the SFs in Mohmand Agency on October 28.

On October 27, SFs claimed killing 42 militants, raising the toll to 240 since the launch of Operation Rah-e-Nijat on October 17. The troops admitted losing one soldier and injuries to two others as they advanced on the militants’ strongholds of Sararogha, Makeen and Ladha from three directions, using Wana, Jandola and Razmak as their rear bases. Tribal sources said the troops were facing stiff resistance during their advance towards Sararogha, Hakeemullah Mehsud’s stronghold, after the capture of Kotkai, Sherwangai, Chalweshtai and other small villages and mountain ridges. Separately, 11 militants and two soldiers were killed during an encounter between the SFs and militants in the Baizai tehsil (revenue division) of Mohmand Agency in the night of October 26. The militants attacked a check post in the Baidmani area of Baizai, triggering an attack by the SFs in which 11 militants and two soldiers were killed and two others injured. In addition, unidentified persons killed an active member of the tribal Lashkar (militia) in Khar, headquarters of the Bajaur Agency, on October 27.

Continuing their advance from three sides on the TTP strongholds of Sararogha, Ladha and Makeen on the 10th day of Operation Rah-e-Nijat, the SFs claimed killing 19 militants in three separate clashes on October 26. Six Army soldiers were also killed while 20 others sustained injuries during clashes between the two sides in the Gharlai, Sarwek, Shaga and Sharkai Sar areas. In their advance from three sides over the past 10 days, the SFs have captured Kotkai, village of the TTP chief Hakeemullah Mehsud and his cousin and suicide bombers’ trainer Qari Hussain, along with Sherwangai, Nawazkot, Chalweshtai and some key ridges. However, the troops faced tough resistance on the 10th day in their advance towards Sararogha.

Separately, nine militants were killed during clashes with the SFs in different areas of the Bajaur Agency on October 26. Sources said about 15 militants attacked a security post in the Mattak area near the Afghan border on October 25 and killed a Junior Commissioned Officer and three other SF personnel. Two SF personnel also sustained injuries in the attack. Troops subsequently fired back, killing six militants and injuring four others. According to official sources, the militants fired seven missiles on security posts in Tawheedabad and Sadiqabad and a base in Bilalabad. However, the missiles caused no damage or casualty. Three militants were killed and one was injured in an exchange of fire which continued for over an hour. In addition, the SFs claimed to have killed four militants and injured six others in aerial bombardments carried out at Mamozai area in Orakzai Agency on October 26. Dawn; Daily Times; The News, October 27-November 2, 2009.

118 civilians and 24 militants among 143 persons killed during the week in NWFP: A remote-controlled car bomb killed at least 118 people – including women and children – and injured more than 200 others at the Meena Bazaar in Peshawar, capital of the North West Frontier Province (NWFP), on October 28. Bomb disposal squad chief Shafqat Malik told reporters that 150 kilograms of explosives were used in the remote-controlled blast. According to AFP, the explosion brought down buildings. A three-storey building and a mosque, Masjid Umme Habiba, situated in the narrow bazaar, caved in while six other structures were engulfed by a huge fire caused by the explosion. Around 12 houses and over 60 shops were gutted while almost 300 other shops and houses were severely damaged due to the powerful explosion at around 12:40 pm. The Meena Bazaar is famous for women’s dresses, cosmetics and children’s garments. Minister Iftikhar Hussain told journalists that the blast was linked with the ongoing military operation in South Waziristan against the Taliban, saying, "foreign terrorists – including Arabs, Chechens and Uzbeks – stationed in Waziristan are carrying out attacks in Pashtun areas". However, no group claimed responsibility for the bombing.

16 militants were killed and 23 others wounded during a joint operation by the Army and Frontier Constabulary in the Tora Warai area of Hangu District on October 25 and 26. 54 militants, including some Afghans, were arrested during the operation. According to officials, security officer Abdul Jaffar was killed and seven other SF personnel sustained injuries in the operation which was launched after an attack by militants on a military check-post in Tora Warai late on October 25. Hundreds of militants of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan from Orakzai Agency and Hangu reportedly took part in the attack. Troops repulsed the attack after a gun-battle which continued for about two hours. Officials told Dawn that militants had taken away the bodies of their colleagues and the injured. Six hideouts of the militants were destroyed in Tora Warai and a large quantity of arms and ammunition, including two rocket-launchers, five rockets, two grenades, three shotguns, two rifles, four pistols and automatic weapons, was seized.

Further, eight bodies of suspected militants were recovered in the Swat District on October 26. Four bodies were reportedly found dumped in the Khwazakhela area, official sources said. Dawn; Daily Times; The News, October 27-November 2, 2009.

Militants who attacked UN guesthouse in Kabul came from Pakistan, says Afghan intelligence: The suicide attack at a United Nations guesthouse in Kabul on October 28, 2009, was a joint operation directed by an Afghan warlord based in the tribal areas of Pakistan and an Al Qaeda operative, the Afghan intelligence Director said. The intelligence official, Amrullah Saleh, said six Afghan suspects had been arrested, including an imam (prayer leader) who had provided a hideaway for the attackers. He said the suspects had said that the three suicide attackers were all from the Swat Valley in the North West Frontier Province of Pakistan. Saleh said the operation was jointly directed. One group was the Haqqani network, a Taliban-affiliated organization led by Jalaluddin Haqqani and his son Sirajuddin, which is based in North Waziristan, and the other leader was an Al Qaeda operative known as Ajmal, who fled to the Waziristan area. 11 persons, including five UN personnel, were killed in the attack. Times of India, November 2, 2009.

No evidence on India's involvement in Balochistan, says US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: The US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said that the US does not have any evidence of India's involvement in Balochistan amid Pakistan's allegation that New Delhi was fomenting trouble in the province. "Well, first of all, we have no evidence of that. I mean, we just have no evidence of that," Clinton said in reply to a question that many Pakistanis believe that India is fomenting trouble in Balochistan. "So from our perspective, we believe that anything like that, any charge that might be made like that and Balochistan, as you know, is a very volatile region," [THIS MAKES NO SENSE. SEE OTHER REPORTS TO GET ACTUAL STATEMENT] she said during her interaction with Pakistani editors in Lahore on October 29-night. Clinton said she has not seen any evidence from Pakistan about India's involvement in Balochistan. Rediff, October 31, 2009. Rediff, October 31, 2009.

FBI neutralises Lashkar-e-Toiba plot to use American for attacks in India and Denmark:US investigating agencies have neutralised a plot by the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) to use an American national for terrorist attacks in Denmark and India. The man, identified as David Coleman Headley, was one of two suspects arrested early in October 2009 by FBI's Joint Terrorism Task Force at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport before he boarded a flight to Philadelphia, from where he was intending to travel to Pakistan to meet Pakistani terrorist handlers, including the fugitive Ilyas Kashmiri. Headley's partner in the terror plot, which included plans to attack the Danish newspaper that published cartoons of Prophet Mohammed, was a Pakistani-Canadian named Tahawwur Hussain Rana, also a resident of Chicago who was arrested by the FBI on October 18.

According to the FBI affidavit filed in a Chicago court, Headley was in close contact with Ilyas Kashmiri and several unidentified leaders of LeT, two of whom are identified as "LeT member A" and "Individual A." He had visited Pakistan before to meet LeT handlers and was returning there ostensibly to finalize plans for strikes. "In July and August 2009, Headley exchanged a series of e-mails with LeT Member A, including an exchange in which Headley asked if the Denmark project was on hold, and whether a visit to India that LeT member A had asked him to undertake was for the purpose of surveying targets for a new terrorist attack," the FBI said in its affidavit. "These e-mails reflect that LeT Member A was placing a higher priority on using Headley to assist in planning a new attack in India than on completing the planned attack in Denmark," it said. Although the affidavit named Kashmiri, it did not identify others involved in the plot, referring to them as LeT member A and Individual A. It said LeT member A "has substantial influence and responsibility within the organization" and his "identity is known to the Government." Times of India, November 2, 2009.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

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