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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 8, No. 20, November 23, 2009
 
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Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Balochistan:
Unrelenting Insurgency
Kanchan Lakshman
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management;
Assistant Editor, Faultlines: Writings on Conflict
& Resolution
The strategic
and resource-rich Balochistan province continues to
remain on the periphery of Pakistan's projects and perceptions.
With both the "dialogue with those who are up in the
mountains" and the counter-insurgency (CI) operations
failing, the Baloch insurrection persists. Worse, subversion
from the Taliban-Al
Qaeda in the north of the province
has added to the region’s complexities.
There
has, however, been some reduction in violence during
2009. At least 268 persons, including 148 civilians
and 83 Security Force (SF) personnel, have died in the
current year (till November 20) according to the South
Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP).
Significantly, there has been a dramatic reduction in
the number of insurgents killed, an indication that
CI operations are not yielding results.
Annual
Fatalities in Balochistan, 2006-2009
|
Year
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Civilians
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SF
Personnel
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Militant
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Total
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Injured
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Incidents
|
|
2009*
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148
|
83
|
37
|
268
|
491
|
349
|
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2008
|
130
|
111
|
107
|
348
|
383
|
397
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|
2007
|
124
|
27
|
94
|
245
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NA
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NA
|
|
2006
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226
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82
|
142
|
450
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NA
|
772
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Source:
South Asia Terrorism Portal
* Data till November 20, 2009
Despite
the reduced levels of violence, the insurgency continues
to simmer, with a steady stream of bomb and rocket attacks
on gas pipelines, railway tracks, power transmission
lines, bridges, and communications infrastructure, as
well as on military establishments and Government facilities.
While there have been at least 126 bomb blasts and grenade
explosions across the province in 2009 [data till November
20 (Source: SATP)], there have also been rocket attacks
(numbers for which are not available currently) targeting
state installations reported almost on a daily basis
in the province. Baloch insurgents have also targeted
Government officials and politicians. On October 25,
2009, for instance, the Balochistan Education Minister
Shafiq Ahmed Khan was shot dead near his house in Quetta.
The Baloch Liberation United Front (BLUF) immediately
claimed responsibility for the assassination. The BLUF
spokesman, Shahiq Baloch, said the Minister, born to
Punjabi settlers, was killed due to his anti-Baloch
policies, and to "avenge the state-sponsored murders
of Baloch nationalist leaders Ghulam Muhammad, Sher
Muhammad and Lala Munir in Turbat in Balochistan some
time ago." Earlier, on August 6, 2009, the Minister
for Excise and Taxation, Sardarzada Rustam Khan Jamali,
was shot dead in Karachi, the capital of Sindh province,
which has a significant Baloch population. Though the
Police subsequently managed to arrest a key suspect,
who is an alleged member of a car lifting gang, investigators
are still unclear about the motive behind the mysterious
killing, and there is suspicion of Baloch involvement.
On October 18, 2009, a grenade was hurled into the house
of the Information Minister Younas Mullazai in Quetta,
but the Minister was not in at that time and no loss
of life or injury was reported. Rahimullah Yusufzai
notes,
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There
have been other targeted killings in the province,
along with frequent acts of sabotage against government
installations, infrastructure and utility services.
A new trend in this campaign is the blowing up
of properties of pro-government tribal elders.
Frontier Corps soldiers and policemen are attacked
and the settlers, the ones whose parents and grandparents
came from other provinces to settle in Balochistan,
are now a major target of Baloch separatists.
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Muhammad
Ejaz Khan similarly reported in The
News on October 18, 2009, that Balochistan had seen
a sharp increase in incidents of targeted killing, especially
since 2003. According to a senior official of the provincial
Government, there have been two principal kinds of targeted
killings – the sectarian and those backed by insurgent
or separatist groups. In most reported incidents, the
targets were found to have been shot in the head by
highly trained shooters. Most of the victims of these
targeted killings have been Shias and Punjabis (generally
referred to as settlers). In Quetta and other Baloch-dominated
areas of the province, Punjabi barbers and labourers
have also been routinely targeted. Dr. Farrukh, the
Superintendent of Police in Quetta, disclosed that the
Police had arrested four high-profile killers and blamed
the outlawed Sunni outfit, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ),
for the targeted killing incidents. The Hazara community
in Quetta claims that over 270 of its people have been
killed over the past six years.
Currently,
there are at least six active insurgent groups in Balochistan:
the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), the Baloch Republican
Army, the Baloch People's Liberation Front, the Popular
Front for Armed Resistance, the Baloch Liberation Front
(BLF) and BLUF. BLUF, according to Rahimullah Yusufzai,
appears more aggressive and violent even than BLA and
BLF. In February 2009, BLUF cadres abducted American
John Solecki, who headed the UNHCR mission in Balochistan,
but freed him unharmed after "much effort, and
probably a deal." The kidnapping signaled the "arrival
of the BLUF as the most radical of the three Baloch
separatist groups even though it isn't clear if these
are separate or overlapping factions operating under
different names." In addition, young Baloch separatists
"forming part of the Diaspora and living in Kabul,
Kandahar, Dubai, London, Brussels and Geneva, are now
often calling the shots in Balochistan and setting the
agenda."
The insurgents
retain capabilities to carry out acts of sabotage on
a daily basis across the province. Acts of violence
are, importantly, not restricted to a few areas but
are occurring in practically all the 26 Districts, including
the provincial capital Quetta. Quetta continues to witness
substantial militant activity, both from the Islamist
extremists and the Baloch nationalists. There were 73
militancy-related incidents in Quetta during 2009 (till
November 15) as against 81 in 2008; 72 in 2007; 75 in
2006; 61 in 2005; 51 in 2004; and 32 in 2003.
While
the low-intensity nationalist insurgency continues,
there is a far more insidious movement of subversion
being orchestrated by the Taliban-al Qaeda combine in
the northern part of the province. The Baloch insurgency,
in fact, plays out in the sidelines of greater theatre
of violence, as Islamist militants in the north orchestrate
attacks on both sides of the Afghan border in their
areas of domination. According to General Stanley McChrystal,
the US Commander in Afghanistan, Taliban militants in
Balochistan, known as the ‘Quetta Shura’, operate openly
from the provincial capital, conducting attacks inside
both Balochistan and Afghanistan. On September 29, 2009,
The Washington Post quoted US Ambassador to Pakistan,
Anne W. Patterson, as saying that "In the past,
we focused on al Qaeda because they were a threat to
us. The Quetta Shura mattered less to us because we
had no troops in the region… Now our troops are there
on the other side of the border, and the Quetta Shura
is high on Washington’s list." Other US officials
claim that virtually all of the Afghan Taliban’s strategic
decisions are made by the Quetta Shura, Dawn reported
on September 30, 2009. Decisions flow from the group
"to Taliban field commanders, who in turn make
tactical decisions that support the Shura’s strategic
direction," one such official told the US media.
The Washington Post report claims that Pakistani
officials have allowed the Taliban movement to regroup
in the Quetta area because they view it as a strategic
asset rather than a domestic threat. The US Consul General
in Karachi, Stephen Fakan, told reporters on October
21, 2009 that a Waziristan-like situation might develop
in Balochistan if "necessary action" is not taken against
the Taliban in Quetta. According to him, "They have
their existence in Quetta and the Government of Pakistan
should root them out from here."
Even
as the American apprehension about the top leadership
of Taliban hiding in Quetta and other parts of Balochistan
were being articulated, there has also been some talk
about the Barack Obama administration planning to broaden
the scope of its drone attacks to include Quetta and
other parts of Balochistan. Interestingly, a Washington
Times report now suggests that Mullah Omar, chief
of the Afghan Taliban who heads the Quetta Shura, may
have been shifted by the Inter-Services Intelligence
(ISI),
Pakistan external intelligence agency, to safer environs
in Karachi, to protect him from the possibility of a
US drone strike.
Meanwhile,
the Taliban-al Qaeda combine continues to try and disrupt
the supply line for NATO Forces in Afghanistan passing
through Balochistan. In 2009, there have been at least
12 attacks in Balochistan on oil tankers and trucks
ferrying NATO supplies to Afghanistan. These have occurred
in the Lakorain area on the National Highway in Khuzdar
District, near the Chaman border crossing, Chaman town,
Kalat, Pishin District, Western Bypass in Quetta, Wadh
in Khuzdar District, on the RCD Highway in Khuzdar,
Bolan and in the Chhoto area of Mastung District. Among
these was also the first-ever suicide attack in a Baloch-populated
area. On June 30, four persons were killed and 11 injured
when a bomber targeted a hotel in Kalat in an apparent
bid at disrupting supplies to the NATO forces in Afghanistan.
The bomber detonated his explosives inside a hotel in
the Sorab area of the District, 250 kilometers southeast
of Quetta. Most of the victims were reportedly Baloch
tribesmen. Witnesses said the suicide bomber, dressed
in white traditional clothes, parked his explosives-laden
vehicle outside the hotel on the Quetta-Karachi RCD
Highway, and then went into the hotel.
The Pakistan
People’s Party (PPP) Government, after coming to power
at Islamabad in 2008, made some politically correct
statements of intent on providing a ‘healing touch’
to Balochistan. However, all of this has remained mere
rhetoric and the political process has failed to take
off. Making it more difficult for Islamabad to launch
an acceptable political process is the inability to
find any allies among the nationalist elements in the
province. Worse, the PPP regime has now been associated
with the custodial killing of at least four prominent
Baloch leaders. The mutilated bodies of Ghulam Mohammed
Baloch, President of the Baloch National Movement, his
deputy Lala Munir Baloch and Sher Mohammed Baloch, Deputy
Secretary General of Balochistan Republican Party, were
found on a mountain river bed in Pidrak near Turbat
on April 8, 2009. Later the body of Baloch National
Front Joint Secretary Rasul Bakhsh Mengal, who was abducted
on August 23, 2009 from Uthal in Lasbela District, with
marks of torture, was found hanging from a tree.
The Federal
Government is currently attempting to develop a ‘consensual’
Balochistan package, which would purportedly address
the province’s political, social and economic problems.
The package, named Aghaze Huqooq-i-Balochistan,
reportedly contains three parts, including constitutional,
administrative and economic measures. At this point
in time, it remains unclear what measures are being
suggested to achieve a consensus and, more importantly,
get all the stakeholders on board. The past trajectory
in Balochistan, however, indicates that packages, essentially
financial in nature, have achieved little. Predictably,
the latest package seems to have run into rough weather
even before its contours have been defined. The Balochistan
National Party (BNP), one of the leading political parties
in the province, has termed the package a bribe, given
to halt their movement, and has consequently demanded
the withdrawal of the ongoing military action in the
province and the release of missing persons as a confidence-building
measure. BNP Secretary, General Habib Jalib Baloch,
told The Nation on November 18 that such packages
had also been announced in the past, but these always
backfired and remained sterile. Abdur Rauf Mengal, a
former parliamentarian from the Balochistan National
Party-Mengal (BNP-M) stated, further, "We have
no faith in the Government’s sincerity." On November
17, 2009, he asserted, "Our problems include the
military operation, which is ongoing regardless of the
Government’s denial; then there are the countless missing
persons; massive displacement due to the military operation;
and fake cases against and the extrajudicial killings
of Baloch nationalist leaders."
Hectic
efforts have been underway for some time now to bringing
the Baloch rebels to the negotiating table. None of
these has, however, had the desired impact in Balochistan
as far as Islamabad is concerned. With the ‘peace process’
ignoring the fundamental issues that have sustained
the insurgency, and Islamabad focusing only on the suppression
of the insurgency, violence continues to be an everyday
reality in the Province. The basic issues, which include
control over resources, equal authority, and autonomy,
are yet to be addressed. There is also the issue of
endemic neglect and backwardness. Balochistan has the
weakest long-term growth performance of all provinces
in the country, according to a World Bank study. The
Balochistan Economic Report 2009, which accounted for
statistics from 1972-73 to 2005-06, said the province’s
economy expanded by 2.7 times in Balochistan, 3.6 times
in the NWFP and Sindh and four times in Punjab. Balochistan
also has the worst social indicators, scoring the lowest
on 10 key variables – education, literacy, health, water
and sanitation – for 2006-07. The World Bank study noted
that illiteracy is high in Balochistan (approximately
60 per cent) and primary school enrolment is low. The
Report only confirms the long-standing disparities between
Balochistan and the other provinces, especially Punjab,
and underlines the deep disconnect between Balochistan
and the rest of the country, as also the resentment
of the Baloch.
Clearly,
a lasting solution to the long-standing Baloch rebellion
looks highly unlikely in the proximate future. Indeed,
there could be a rising danger from the augmenting presence
of the Taliban-Al Qaeda combine in Balochistan.
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Qualified
Gains
Asutosha Acharya
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
Bangladesh
has experienced an abrupt political stabilization in 2009,
even as subversive activities by Islamist extremist groups
have been substantially curbed by the Government. No terrorist
attack has so far been recorded in 2009 by the Islamist
militants, though radical groups continue to maintain
a varying presence across the country. Bangladeshi authorities,
however, continue to vigorously target alleged Left Wing
Extremists, though there is little corresponding evidence
of a proportionately violent Left Wing movement in the
country.
Fatalities
- Islamist Terrorism, 2007-09
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Year
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Civilians
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SFs
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Terrorists
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Total
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2007
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1
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0
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7
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8
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2008
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1
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0
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0
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1
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2009*
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0
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0
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0
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0
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*Data
till November 20, 2009
Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal
Fatalities-
Left-wing Extremism, 2007-09
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Month
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Civilians
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SFs
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Terrorists
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Total
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2007
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8
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0
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72
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80
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2008
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3
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1
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54
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58
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2009*
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3
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0
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69
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72
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Data till
November 20, 2009
Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal
While Islamist
extremists, who were nurtured under previous regimes,
have not engaged in any act of overt violence in 2009,
groups like the Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB)
continue to maintain an active presence across the country,
despite their proscription and the arrest of a number
of their cadres. Police sources suggested in June 2009
that JMB militants had started regrouping in the remote
villages of four Sub-Districts in Chapainawabganj. JMB
cadres had fled their localities during the crackdown
after the August 17 serial bomb blasts in 2005, had returned
to their areas in Shibganj, Bholahat, Gomostapur and Sadar
Sub-Districts, and were trying to recruit new cadres.
According to the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), at least
5,000 JMB cadres remained active across the country. The
JMB is also reported to be seeking to ideologically mobilize
new recruits, or to entice these with offers of money.
The dawati (proselytisation) unit of the outfit
first selects youths from poor families in rural areas
or by visiting mosques, and these are then exposed to
radical ideas and militant cadres, in preparation for
jihad. A senior RAB official explains the process:
"If the targets respond positively the JMB operatives
start giving them some religious books, particularly those
on jihad. They also give them a certain monthly
amount to gain their confidence and slowly make them dependent
on the outfit… At one stage the targets become infatuated
with the JMB." He added that some of the recently detained
militants disclosed that the outfit was providing a monthly
amount of Tk 500 per ‘target’. The JMB has also sought
to strengthen its links in Pakistan. On June 21, 2009,
an unidentified senior RAB official told Daily Star
that some key JMB members, wanted by the enforcement
agencies, had shifted to Pakistan for military training
or had joined militant groups in that country.
In its
effort to combat terrorism, the Bangladesh Government
on October 22, 2009, banned the Hizb-ut-Tahrir ‘in the
interest of public security’. "The organisation has been
banned as it has been carrying out anti-State, anti-Government,
anti-people and anti-democratic activities for long in
the country," Home Minister Sahara Khatun said. The Hizb-ut-Tahrir
is an international Islamist political party founded in
Jerusalem in 1953. The party started its activities in
Bangladesh in 2000 and, according to the group’s Website
(www.khilafat.org), Mohiuddin Ahmed is the chief coordinator
and spokesman of the party in the country, with its central
office located at Dhaka. Hizb-ut-Tahrir adheres to a pan-Islamist
ideology, whose goal is to establish a global Islamic
caliphate. The organization has been banned in a number
of countries, mainly in Central Asia and the Middle East.
The group’s Bangladesh coordinator and spokesman, Mohiuddin
Ahmed, however, asserts that the allegations against his
organisation were "completely baseless": "We are law-abiding
citizens of the country. We are not involved in any militancy
activities. The Government banned us because we have been
raising voices against its fascist character."
On October
25, 2009, the authorities raided the Hizb-ut-Tahrir office
in Dhaka and seized some documents and equipment. Mahid
Uddin, Deputy Police Commissioner of Motijheel zone in
Dhaka, said the "papers seized from the office shows that
they were very well organised." Police said the Hizb had
at least 24 publications and innumerable leaflets and
posters, and that they collected books and documents about
jihad. On the same day, the Bangladesh Bank issued
an order to all banks across the country to freeze all
accounts of the banned outfit. With the latest proscription,
five Islamist militant outfits are now banned in the country:
the JMB, Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami-Bangladesh (HuJI-B),
Shahadat-e-al-Hikma, Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh
and Hizb ut-Tahrir.
Despite
the Government’s counter-terrorism efforts there is evidence
that Islamist organizations are regrouping. Reports in
April 2009 suggested that four Islamist militant outfits
were regrouping their cadres in 12 Districts in the south-western
region of the country. 40 top ranking militant leaders
were reportedly overseeing the activities of nearly 10,000
cadres in these Districts. This information was provided
by 31 cadres of the Hizb-ut-Towhid who were arrested from
Kushtia District in early April 2009. The outfits active
in these Districts have been identified as the Allahr
Dal, JMB, HuJI-B and Hizb-ut Towhid. Their activities
have been reported from ten Districts of Khulna division
-- Kushtia, Meherpur, Jhenidah, Magura, Chuadanga, Jessore,
Khulna, Narail, Bagerhat and Satkhira and in two Districts
of Dhaka division – Rajbari and Faridpur.
The Left
Wing Extremist (LWE) movement in Bangladesh, often described
by the generic term Sarbaharas, in its history
of over three decades, is "a highly dispersed, low-scale
and criminalised movement, consisting of a multiplicity
of minor groups, no combination of which constitutes any
significant threat to the country’s security." Nevertheless,
the insurgency continued to be the principal focus of
‘counter-terrorist’ responses, especially of operations
by the elite RAB personnel. As compared to 58 LWE fatalities
in 2008, 2009 registered 72 LWE-related deaths (till November
20). Reports of some LWE activities continue to filter
through from the country's south-western region constituting
Kushtia, Meherpur, Chuadanga, Jhenidah, Jessore, Khulna
and Bagerhat Districts. The network of different active
outlawed Left outfits survives in 10 southwestern Districts,
particularly including Kushtia, Jhenidah, Chuadanga and
Meherpur. Police sources suggest their involvement in
murder, drugs trafficking, robbery, extortion, abduction
and controlling tenders. According to the RAB, 13 factions
of armed Communist groups, and as many gangs named after
the ringleaders concerned, operate in 23 Districts of
the Khulna, Rajshahi, Dhaka and Barisal Divisions. The
RAB says these outlawed groups possess a ‘huge’ number
of firearms including sophisticated M16 and AK47 rifles.
According to a November 7, 2009, report 13 LWE groups
are active in the country: Purba Banglar Communist Party,
PBCP
(Janajuddha), PBCP (M-L Red Flag), PBCP (M-L Communist
War), Biplabi Communist Party, New Biplabi Communist Party,
Gono Bahini, Gono Mukti Fouz, Banglar Communist Party,
Socialist Party, Biplabi Anuragi, Chhinnamul Communist
Party and Sarbahara People's March.
Bangladesh
also continues to be a transit, haven and launching point
for Pakistan-based terrorist groups which target India.
Groups like the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT)
and Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI)
retain a significant presence within Bangladesh, and have
used its territory to launch terrorist attacks against
India. The arrest of three LeT militants, Mufti Obaidullah
(arrested on July 16), Moulana Mohammad Mansur Ali alias
Moulana Habibullah (July 20) and Muhaddis Obaidullah
(July 22), who were active in the country for at least
14 years in the guise of madrassa (seminary) teachers,
highlighted the continuing presence of Pakistan-backed
terrorist groups. These three militants were earlier affiliated
to the now dormant Indian militant group, the Asif Reza
Commando Force (ARCF) and, after absconding from India,
were in charge of the LeT’s Bangladesh chapter .Their
interrogation provided important information on cross-border
terrorism emanating from Pakistan and local political
support for the LeT in Bangladesh. During interrogation,
they disclosed that militants fighting in the Indian State
of Jammu and Kashmir had regularly used Bangladesh as
a transit point to travel to Pakistan and had built safe
havens in Bangladesh to shelter and train militants for
terrorist operations in India. "As it was tough to cross
back to Pakistan through the India-Pakistan border, the
mujahideen would cross to Bangladesh and then left
for their destinations using fake passports and visas,"
Mufti Obaidullah’s interrogation record stated.
Investigators
have also confirmed that the HuJI-B has, for long, been
backing operations by the LeT in Bangladesh. The HuJI-B
is reported to have sheltered LeT cadres in Bangladesh
and also helped them get jobs at different seminaries.
The LeT also reportedly funded HuJI-B operations in Bangladesh.
Besides the local chapter of HuJI-B, some political leaders
were discovered to have been helping the LeT to operate
in Bangladesh. This revelation came from two arrested
LeT operatives, Mufti Obaidullah and Moulana Mohammad
Mansur Ali. A former investigator of RAB said that they
had come to know about the existence of the LeT and at
least seven of its political patrons in Bangladesh in
the last Bangladesh National Party-Jamaat-e-Islami Government
headed by Begum Khaleda Zia. However, they could not carry
the investigation to its logical conclusion as they had
‘limitations’, with the four-party alliance in power.
Sources close to the Detective Branch said that some of
the suspects are local level leaders of a political party
and some are quite prominent at the national level.
Some of
the militant groups which are active in India’s Northeast
are still holed up in Bangladesh. However, certain measures
by the Government to neutralize the presence of such groups
were noticed in 2009, as the new Government took several
steps to restore a healthy relationship with neighbours,
especially India. On February 19, 2009, the Bangladesh
Government stated that it had mutually agreed with India
to hand over the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA)
‘general secretary’ and one of the group’s founders, Anup
Chetia a.k.a. Golap Baruah, who had been lodged in a Bangladeshi
jail since his arrest on December 21, 1997. A mutual agreement
between the two countries also reportedly includes the
handover of Bangladeshi criminals who have fled to India.
However, Anup Chetia is yet to be deported to India, though
two ULFA leaders, ‘foreign secretary’ Sashadhar Choudhury
and ‘finance secretary’ Chitraban Hazairka, were reportedly
arrested from Dhaka in the midnight of November 1, 2009,
and handed over to India’s Border Security Force (BSF)
in the Northeastern State of Tripura on November 6. The
duo were subsequently flown in a chartered aircraft to
Kamrup in Assam and immediately taken away to headquarters
of the Special Branch of the Assam Police at Kahilipara.
While the BSF officials insisted that the ULFA leaders
surrendered to them after fleeing Dhaka following an "internal
clash" among the cadres, Sashadhar Choudhury stated they
had not surrendered and that the Bangladesh Police commandos
had arrested them. The development came a month ahead
of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's proposed
visit to India and four months after Bangladesh Foreign
Minister Dipu Moni assured India that tough action would
be taken against militant groups, if any, operating from
that country. Meanwhile, the current whereabouts of the
ULFA ‘chairman’ Arabinda Rajkhowa, ‘commander-in-chief’
Paresh Barua, and his deputy Raju Barua, who were known
to have long been in Bangladesh, remain unclear, though
intelligence sources suggest that they may have moved
to South China. In a deputy director general-level meeting
with Bangladesh Rifles in Sylhet (Bangladesh) on November
6, 2009, the BSF had given a list of 104 camps of Indian
militant groups operating in Bangladesh. The camps are
basically 'permanent in nature' and belong to different
outfits, including the ULFA, National Democratic Front
of Bodoland (NDFB),
Kamtapur Liberation Organisation (KLO)
and People’s Liberation Army (PLA),
an official in the Tripura sector of BSF disclosed.
In a significant
departure from the past regimes, the present Government
has reportedly directed its SFs to maintain vigilance
to prevent any kind of subversive activities by the ULFA
and other Northeast Indian groups in Bangladesh. On October
19, 2009, the SFs launched an operation to arrest cadres
of the ULFA and the KLO, including the ‘chief’ of the
latter, D.K. Roy. Leaders of other militant groups like
the NDFB, the National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT),
and the All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF)
are also known to be safely ensconced in Bangladesh. The
absence of an extradition treaty between India and Bangladesh
has also obstructed the handing over of wanted criminals
between the two sides. Reports indicate that "a mutual
legal assistance treaty on criminal matters, a legal framework
for seeking deportation on a case-by-case basis, and an
agreement on transfer of convicts are among the proposals
that found favour with the two countries during Foreign
Minister Dipu Moni’s visit to New Delhi..."
On February
25, 2009, a few months after being sworn in as the Prime
Minister, Sheikh Hasina Wajed faced a 33-hour long mutiny
staged by troops from the country’s para-military border
force, the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR). The mutiny, which
posed a very serious threat to democracy and to the Government,
resulted in the killing of 74 persons, including 52 Army
officers, at the BDR headquarters in Pilkhana in Dhaka.
Investigators revealed that telephone records of
some of the suspects indicated that the mutiny had been
planned at least two months earlier. However, the investigation
into the BDR mutiny has been rather controversial, with
different Government agencies providing different explanations
for the rebellion. The Commerce Minister, Lt Col (retired)
Faruk Khan, who has been coordinating the investigations,
linked the killings to the banned JMB. He said some of
the BDR personnel arrested for their involvement in the
mutiny had links with the JMB. However, "the national
probe committee on mutiny did not find any militant, political
or foreign links to the mutiny." An unnamed member
of the Government probe body disclosed, on May 21, 2009,
that "BDR jawans committed the murders on their
own. Our investigation did not find any involvement of
outsiders – political leaders, militants or foreign forces."
In its 309-page inquiry report submitted to Home Minister
Sahara Khatunon, it also said the mutiny was a continuation
of the revolts in 1973 and 1991 over leadership in the
BDR. Whatever its cause, the mutiny was an early setback
to the new Awami League Government.
Sheikh
Hasina Wajed, in her first question-answer session in
the ninth Parliament on January 28, had stated that her
Government would not hesitate to take stringent measures
to curb militancy in the country. Terming militancy a
major problem, the Prime Minster said she has already
asked the concerned authorities to take necessary steps
to form a 'South Asian Anti-terrorism Taskforce', in line
with the Awami League’s election manifesto, to curb cross-border
terrorism. In a major development to combat militancy,
on April 20, the Government formed a 17-member ‘National
Committee on Militancy Resistance and Prevention’ to tackle
militancy in the country and mobilise public opinion against
extremist activities. The committee, led by State Minister
for Home Tanjim Ahmed Sohel Taj, comprises top officials
of seven Ministries and law enforcement and intelligence
agencies. Home Ministry sources said that the committee
would evaluate the procedure for investigation into all
major subversive acts carried out in the country. The
17-member National Committee on May 12 announced zero
tolerance against militancy, terrorism and any attempt
to disrupt law and order. Sohel Taj announced a three-phase
programme for the short, medium and long terms, to deal
with the twin problems posed by militancy and terrorism.
The south-west
remains the worse affected region in terms of militancy,
both in terms of Islamist militancy and LWE. On September
10, security agencies prepared a fresh list of top militants,
their kingpins and political mentors in the country's
south-western region. Names of 280 armed operatives of
different terrorist and criminal groups, 80 lynchpins
and as many as 150 political mentors have reportedly been
included in the list. The list also includes the most
wanted criminals from terrorist and criminal gangs, their
armed cadres and their ringleaders, including some holding
leadership posts in major political parties.
There are
strong reasons for qualified optimism in Bangladesh, given
the current regime’s initial steps against disruptive
and radical forces in the country. Nevertheless, the residual
capacities of these forces, their deep linkages in the
political establishment, and the complex dynamic that
had thrown Bangladesh into the destructive spiral of the
past years, continue to exist. It will take years of sustained
commitment to restore the rule of law and the essence
of a democratic polity in the country, before the risks
of regression can be safely ruled out.
|
Weekly
Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
November
16-22,
2009
|
|
Civilian
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorist/Insurgent
|
Total
|
|
BANGLADESH
|
|
|
Left-wing Extremism
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
|
INDIA
|
|
|
Assam
|
12
|
0
|
6
|
18
|
|
Jammu and Kashmir
|
0
|
4
|
5
|
9
|
|
Manipur
|
1
|
0
|
3
|
4
|
|
Tripura
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
Left-wing Extremism
|
|
|
Andhra Pradesh
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
|
Bihar
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
|
Chhattisgarh
|
3
|
0
|
1
|
4
|
|
Jharkhand
|
3
|
3
|
1
|
7
|
|
Maharashtra
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
|
Orissa
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
4
|
|
West Bengal
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
|
Total (INDIA)
|
27
|
9
|
19
|
55
|
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
|
Balochistan
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
|
FATA
|
7
|
13
|
140
|
160
|
|
NWFP
|
27
|
7
|
20
|
54
|
|
Pakistan occupied
Kashmir
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
|
Sindh
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
|
Total (PAKISTAN)
|
36
|
20
|
164
|
220
|
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
|
INDIA
INDIA
Seven
persons killed and 55 injured in two bomb blasts
in Assam: Seven
persons were killed and 55 others, including
some minor children, were injured in two bicycle-bomb
blasts in Nalbari town, headquarters of the
Nalbari District, on November 22, 2009. The
first blast occurred near the Nalbari Police
Station in the heart of the town around 10 a.m.,
injuring several people. As a huge crowd of
market-goers gathered to assist the injured
and to witness the blast after-effects, another
powerful blast occurred soon a few feet away
from the first blast site. Five people died
on the spot in the second blast and over 50
were injured. Two people died later in hospitals
in Guwahati.
Police
suspect that the blasts were the handiwork of
the banned United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA).
However, a caller, identifying himself as ‘commander’
of the ULFA’s ‘709 Battalion’ Hira Sarania,
told three local television news channels that
the outfit was not involved in the blasts. The
caller alleged that the blasts could be the
handiwork of vested interests to sabotage a
fresh move by the People’s Committee for Peace
Initiative in Assam (PCPIA), a conglomerate
of civil society groups for brokering a peace
dialogue between the ULFA and the Government.
A PCPIA delegation is now camping in New Delhi
to impress upon the Union Government to initiate
the stalled peace process with the ULFA. The
Police also suspect that the ULFA was desperate
to show its strength following the arrest on
November 4, 2009 of its ‘foreign secretary’
Sashadhar Choudhury and ‘finance secretary’
Chitraban Hazarika in the Bangladeshi capital
Dhaka, who are now in custody of the Assam Police.
Meanwhile, the Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi
said "This is no intelligence failure. ULFA
is trying to shift its base. They are trying
to shift to China." The
Hindu;
IBN
Live, November 23, 2009.
No plan for
military action against Maoists, says Union
Home secretary G.K. Pillai: The Union
Home Secretary G.K. Pillai on November 20, 2009
ruled out military action against the Communist
Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) who he described
as "terrorists". "The Maoist
organization itself is a terrorist organization.
Every act of the Maoist is a violent act and
terrorist act. They always attack soft targets
like schools, panchayat [local self-government]
buildings, telephone towers," Pillai said
in response to a query on whether Maoists had
started attacking soft targets. He, however,
ruled out military action, including aerial
attacks, against the insurgents. "Our main
aim is to restore civilian administration in
the Maoist-affected areas and provide basic
facilities in those areas. But we have never
said that we will take military action against
them," Pillai added.
Asian
Age, November 21, 2009.
PAKISTAN
140
militants and 13 soldiers among 160 persons
killed during the week in FATA: 17
militants, including two ‘commanders’ and two
foreigners, were killed and eight others injured
in bombing by fighter planes and clashes between
the Security Forces (SFs) and militants in different
areas of the Bajaur Agency on November 22. Further,
the SFs on November 22 claimed to have killed
13 militants and conceded one casualty and injuries
to five soldiers during an encounter in the
Shahukhel area of Orakzai Agency. Separately,
five militants were killed and nine others sustained
injuries in the ongoing Operation Rah-e-Nijat
in South Waziristan Agency on November 22.
SFs
killed 14 Taliban militants during the Operation
Rah-e-Nijat in South Waziristan Agency,
even as six soldiers, including an officer,
were also killed and four others injured on
November 21. The Inter-Services Public Relations
(ISPR) said the SFs secured Lakki Ghundi after
an intense battle with the Taliban. "During
the operation, 14 terrorists were killed, while
six soldiers, including an officer embraced
martyrdom and four were injured," it said.
SFs cleared Gandil Wala area near Jandola and
launched a search operation in Sarwekai and
Paya near Tiarza. Troops also secured Manna,
Tut Kasko Khula and Kandao Sar west of Razmak
and secured Laghar Narai as well. Separately,
11 suspected militants, a majority of foreigners
among them, were killed and seven others injured
when jets bombed militant hideouts and an Afghan
refugee camp in Orakzai Agency on November 21.
19
militants were killed in clashes with the SFs
in the South Waziristan Agency, Khyber Agency
and Bajaur Agency on November 20. Tribal and
officials sources said five militants were killed
and nine persons, including a soldier, sustained
injuries during an exchange of fire in the Asman
Manza area in the Ladha sub-division of South
Waziristan. The clash, which continued for an
hour, erupted when the militants attacked a
military camp. SFs and militants also clashed
in the Maidan area in Ladha but there was no
word on casualties. In the Khyber Agency, eight
militants were killed in a clash with the SFs
in the Gandao area. Official sources said the
militants attacked a security check-post in
Gandao with heavy arms, prompting the troops
to retaliate. The exchange of gunfire continued
for two hours in which eight militants were
killed. Further, a member of the bomb disposal
unit was killed in a roadside explosion in Bara
sub-division. SFs also targeted the hideouts
of militants at Charmang in Nawagai and Hazar
town in the Mamond sub-division of Bajaur Agency
with artillery shells and mortar guns, killing
six militants and injuring four others.
A
US drone strike on a compound in North Waziristan
Agency killed eight Taliban militants on November
20. Two militants were also injured in the attack
on the building located in Michi Khel village
of Mir Ali revenue-division, 18 kilometres east
of agency the headquarters Miranshah. The
Associated Press reported that the targeted
compound was owned by two brothers and the Taliban
militants frequently visited the building.
13
militants and a paramilitary soldier were killed
and several other people injured in air raids
and clashes in various parts of the Bajaur Agency
on November 19. Fighter planes and helicopter
gunships are reported to have targeted militant
hideouts in the Speray, Gatki and Sewai areas
of Mamond sub-division. Two relatives of a militant
leader, Maulvi Muneer, were killed when a shell
hit his house in Sewai. One mortar shell hit
the house of militant leader Fam Jan in Kamangara
area of Nawagai sub-division, killing him, his
wife and two sons. In addition, four militants
were killed and five others injured in a clash
with the SFs in the Charmang area of Nawagai
sub-division. The clash erupted when militants
attacked a security post in Bar Cheenar area
with heavy weapons. The fighting, which continued
for over an hour, also left one paramilitary
soldier, Sarwar Khan, dead and six others injured.
Separately, the militants killed a Frontier
Corps trooper and his father in a failed kidnap
bid at Darra Ghari in the Orakzai Agency on
November 19.
The
SFs are reported to have killed seven Taliban
militants in the Operation Rah-e-Nijat in
South Waziristan Agency on November 19. The
SFs "engaged and cleared a Taliban [hideout]
...near Kikrai" on the Jandola-Sararogha
front, said an ISPR statement. "During
the clash, seven Taliban were killed,"
said the ISPR, adding that troops also consolidated
their positions around Tor Wam, and seized a
huge cache of arms and ammunition.
Six
civilians and 12 militants were killed, while
23 people sustained injuries as jetfighters
shelled various parts of the Orakzai Agency
on November 18. Tribal and official sources
said the jet fighters targeted the hideouts
and compounds of the militants in Ghiljo, Mishti
Bazaar, Mazidgarhi and Tor Kanray, killing 12
militants and injuring 17 others. Eight hideouts
and four vehicles were also destroyed in the
attack. The sources said that some of the shells
missed the targets and hit houses in Shahukhel
area, killing three women, two minors and a
man while injuring six others. In addition,
heavy artillery shelling by the SFs in Kurram
Agency killed five militants on November 18
while four militants were killed when fighter
jets targeted their positions in Bajaur Agency.
Separately, the SFs on November 18 claimed killing
six militants in South Waziristan Agency. A
statement of the ISPR said six militants were
killed when they opened small arms fire on the
SFs in the Kund Mela area on the Shakai-Kaniguram
Road. Five soldiers, including an officer, sustained
injuries in the attack. In retaliatory fire,
six militants were killed.
Four
militants were killed and five others injured
in a US drone missile strike in the Shanakhora
village of North Waziristan on November 18.
"It was a US drone attack which targeted a militant
compound killing four militants and wounding
five others," a senior security official in
the area told AFP. He said two missiles
were fired from a US drone. Dawn;
Daily
Times; The
News, November 17-23,
2009.
27
civilians and 20 militants among 54 persons
killed during the week in NWFP: Five
militants, including a foreigner, were killed
when the SFs targeted the militant hideouts
in Speen Thall area of Thall sub-division in
the Hangu District on November 20. An Afghan
militant was among the dead.
20
people – including three Policemen – were killed
and 50 others injured when a suicide bomber
blew himself up at the main gate of the Judicial
Complex on Khyber Road in Peshawar, the NWFP
capital, on November 19. This was the sixth
suicide attack in 11 days in the provincial
capital. The bomber reportedly struck at around
10:20am at the main gate of the complex, which
houses district lower courts and is close to
the Peshawar High Court, Civil Secretariat,
the NWFP Assembly Flag Staff House and other
Government offices and installations. The Cantonment
Superintendent of Police, Nisar Marwat, told
Daily Times that around eight-to-10 kilograms
of explosives were used in the attack. In another
incident in Peshawar, two Policemen were killed
and five persons sustained injuries in a bomb
blast that targeted a Police vehicle on the
outskirts of the city early on November 19.
"It was a remote-controlled bomb packed
with steel pellets, which was planted on the
roadside," a senior Police official said.
Separately, two militants were killed in an
encounter with the Police in the Bezoo Kot area
of Hangu District on November 19.
Six
bodies of suspected militants were found dumped
in various areas of Swat Valley on November
18. Those whose bodies were found also included
a close aide to the slain deputy leader of the
Swat Taliban Maulana Shah Dauran. The corpse
of Ihsanullah was found dumped in the fields
in Kokarai locality of Mingora. The body of
another militant, identified as Shamakhel, was
recovered from a roadside in Charbagh. Local
sources said four bodies of suspected militants
were found in the Gorra area situated on the
border with Dir District. Separately, two women,
three children and two men were killed when
military planes accidentally bombed some houses
in the Hangu District on November 18. In the
course of an attack on a seminary, the planes
are reported to have accidentally dropped some
bombs on adjacent shops and some houses in the
Shahu Khel area of Hangu. Besides the women
and children, two labourers were also killed
in the attack.
Three
persons were killed and more than 30 others
sustained injuries in a suicide car bombing
which targeted the Badaber Police Station on
the Kohat Road near Peshawar on November 16.
The powerful blast razed to the ground a mosque,
a large portion of the Police Station and three
nearby buildings. It also injured some horses
in the nearby horse stand and damaged several
vehicles in the vicinity. Eyewitnesses said
Constable Umer Rahman of the Frontier Constabulary
opened fire as he became suspicious about a
fast-approaching vehicle near the Badaber Police
Station around 7:40am. "When the brave
constable opened fire, the explosives stuffed
in the vehicle exploded. The soldier also suffered
injuries but he is safe and sound," Frontier
Constabulary Commandant Zafarullah Khan told
The News. Officials of the bomb disposal
squad estimated that around 250 kilograms of
explosives had been stuffed in the vehicle.
This was the fifth incident of its kind in and
outside Peshawar during the last eight days.
The
SFs claimed to have killed four militants near
Gulibagh in the Swat District while the body
of a militant ‘commander’ was found dumped in
the Sambat area of Matta sub-division on November
16. The ISPR said the troops conducted a search
operation in Roria near the Gulibagh area of
Charbagh. It said the SFs confronted the militants
during the action and killed four of them. Sources
said the bullet-riddled body of Ahmad Jan alias
Tor Lala was found dumped on a roadside
in Sambat after unidentified men killed him.
Ahmad Jan was among the ‘commanders’ of the
Swat militants wanted by the SFs in numerous
acts of terror in the area, the sources said.
Dawn;
Daily
Times; The
News, November 17-23,
2009.
|
The South
Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that
brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on
terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on
counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on
related economic, political, and social issues, in the South
Asian region.
SAIR is a project
of the Institute
for Conflict Management
and the
South
Asia Terrorism Portal.
|
|
|
