SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 8, No. 43, May 3, 2010

PAKISTAN

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Darkness over Orakzai
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Assistant, Institute for conflict Management

At midnight on March 23, 2010, the Pakistani Security Forces (SFs), including the paramilitary Frontier Corps (FC), backed by jets, helicopter gunships and artillery, started Operation Khwakh Ba De Sham (I will see you) also known as Operation Orakzai in the Orakzai Agency of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Media reports indicate that the top leadership and commanders of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) moved into the Orakzai area in 2009, after Operation Rah-e-Nijat (path to salvation) flushed out the Hakeemullah Mehsud-led TTP from their strongholds in South Waziristan.

The SFs reportedly launched operations in Hashmat Khan Kili, Qeematkhel, Mirobak, Shna Naka, Anjani, Ferozkhel, Stori Khel and Khalil Kalay areas. Operation Orakzai also covers the bordering regions of the Khyber Agency. On the very first day of the Operation, at least 21 ‘Taliban militants’ were killed and another 24 sustained injuries in the Southern areas of the Orakzai Agency [there is no independent verification of the kills or of the identity of those killed, as media access is severely restricted in Pakistan’s conflict zones]. Sources claimed that, unlike other troubled tribal regions in the country, militants in Orakzai were not able to put up any strong resistance against the SFs, and were fleeing to safer places. Tribesmen holding national flags in their hands reportedly accorded a warm welcome to SFs entering the area. Major Fazal-ur-Rehman, spokesman for the FC, confirmed that the SFs were battling insurgents in Orakzai and that there had been "militant losses", but did not give any numbers.

Earlier, on December 12, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani had said that the Government was ready to launch a military operation in Orakzai, if efforts for a ‘peaceful resolution’ failed. "We will first try to convince elements in Orakzai to accept a peaceful resolution," he had said, referring to proposals for a negotiated settlement made by some politicians, including former cricketer Imran Khan, leader of the Tehrik-i-Insaaf (Movement for Justice). According to Reuters, the Prime Minister declared, "The Operation has finished in South Waziristan. Now there is talk of Orakzai."

Operation Khwakh Ba De Sham, to regain control over the Orakzai Agency and its border areas, is of crucial significance since TTP militants fled back to their old strongholds in this region following their expulsion from South Waziristan. Orakzai has also been a crucial launching pad for numerous suicide bomb attacks conducted across Pakistan, and is the location of many terror training camps, including some run by Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), Lashkar-e-Islam (LI) and other al Qaeda-affiliated terrorist outfits.

At least 751 persons, including 644 militants, 83 civilians and 24 SF personnel (till May 2), have died so far in Operation Khwakh Ba De Sham. Some 82 ‘militant hideouts’ have been bombed and neutralised. Actual numbers may be significantly higher, as media movement has been extremely restricted, and will definitely increase as the Operation progress. Meanwhile, the whole of FATA continues to remain a conflict zone, with rapidly augmenting casualties. Till April 30, a total of 1,799 persons, including 1,542 militants and 147 civilians, have died so far in 2010, as compared to 841 killings, including 563 militants, 227 civilians and 51 SFs, during the corresponding period in 2009. The writ of the State, always fragile in FATA, has now vanished, with levels of violence rising continuously over the years.

Annual Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in FATA, 2005- 2010

[Fatalities are bound to be much higher than the numbers available, and the categories are certainly suspect, since independent and open source reportage from FATA is severely restricted].

Extremist retaliation against the Operations manifested itself in suicide bombings in adjacent areas, including the attack at the Kacha Pakka Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) camp on the outskirts of Kohat in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (formerly the North West Frontier Province) on April 17, 2010, which killed 44 persons and injured more than 70. Two burqa (veil)-clad suicide bombers had targeted a crowd of IDPs waiting to be registered and to receive relief goods. Locals said the IDPs were from Kalaya, Sipah and Maraye areas of Orakzai Agency, and were principally Shia.

As the Operation gained momentum, TTP wrath also fell on tribal elders who either supported Security Forces (SFs) or denied refuge to escaping militants. On April 25, two headless bodies of missing tribal elders were recovered days after they were abducted by suspected TTP militants. The militants had abducted six elders and had killed at least three of them. Elsewhere, a pro-government lashkar (tribal militia) leader, Sakhi Rahman, was among seven people killed in a shootout, when militants from the Orakzai chapter of the TTP attacked his home in Shahu Khel on April 7. Rahman was a former TTP commander in Orakzai, who split with the TTP eight months earlier and declared his intention to aid the Government at the beginning of the Orakzai operation. Tribal elders in the regions were increasingly apprehensive about their future. Mindful of this, the Political Agent for Orakzai, Riaz Mehsud, on April 6, claimed that 90 per cent of the area in the lower subdivision of the Tribal Agency had been ‘cleared’ of militants, and the writ of the Government had been re-established. He claimed that the cleared areas included Storikhel, Sultanzai, Utmankhel, Ferozkhel, Zayara and Anrkhel. He added that a Grand Jirga (council) would soon be convened to take all tribal elders into confidence to discuss issues of reconstruction and joint operation against the militants.

Reports indicate that the LI, founded in 2004 by Mufti Munir Shakir and currently headed by Mangal Bagh Afridi, a militant group active in and around Khyber and Orakzai Agencies, is presently feeling the heat of Operation Khwakh Ba De Sham. On April 15, LI spokesman Zarr Khan called on the Government to stop the ongoing military operation in the tribal region of Bara tehsil (revenue unit) in Khyber Agency, and declared that the outfit was willing to hold talks with the administration. Zarr Khan said the LI had not challenged the writ of the State, and should, therefore, not be attacked by the Armed Forces. He claimed his group was not involved in anti-State activities and was not fighting Security Forces, and that, "Many civilians and local tribesmen have been killed in the operation, and we appeal to the Government to stop it immediately." LI is one of the groups affiliated to the TTP. When TTP militants fled the South Waziristan Agency under pressure from Operation Rah-e-Nijat, the LI provided both logistic and cadre support.

Civilians, however, are the worst hit by past and ongoing SF Operations, with indiscriminate force characteristically used against uncertain targets. Thus, jets bombed a compound in the Sara Vela area of Tirah Valley in the Khyber Agency on April 10, where military officials claimed a meeting of LI cadres was being held, killing 61 persons. Local tribal sources disputed the military’s claim and insisting that only civilians were killed in the air strikes. Many of the fatalities occurred in a second wave of bombings, while rescue workers were removing bodies from the rubble. Local tribal leaders denied that there were militant hideouts in the area, and said that civilians had built bunkers for self-defence. Tribal sources also added that the destroyed house belonged to three brothers, one whom serves in the Army, while the other two were serving in the FC. After a week’s denial and delay, the Army eventually apologised for the bombing, conceding that an ‘error’ had occurred. The Army Chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, on April 17, issued an official apology to the Kokikhel tribe for the April 10 air strikes at the Sara Vela village, and also confirmed that two FC soldiers were among those killed in the bombardment. This episode demonstrates clearly the dangers of trying to fight terrorism from the air, with little intelligence available on the specific targets that are being attacked in blind bombings.

With violence escalating, the number of IDPs in the tribal regions of FATA and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa continues to augment. A UN report on April 9 indicated that more than 200,000 civilians had fled a military offensive and violence in the tribal Districts near the Afghanistan border. The UN said the mass exodus began in November 2009 from Orakzai and Kurram Districts, which had been hit by TTP, Taliban and al Qaeda militants, as well as by sectarian violence. "More than 35,000 families or approximately 210,000 individuals from Orakzai and Kurram Agencies have been registered as IDPs since November last year," UN refugee agency spokeswoman Ariane Rummery disclosed. She stated, further, that, of the 35,000 families, 16,376 had been registered as IDPs since February, mostly in the north-western towns of Hangu and Kohat. Pakistani authorities had also registered fresh IDPs fleeing to Peshawar, from Kurram and Orakzai. If Operation Khwakh Ba De Sham escalates and extends further into the tribal region, the number of IDPs will definitely grow up. As many as 800 families have been fleeing Orakzai and Kurram Agencies per day, over the past month, most them to either Kohat or Hangu. A report by the Pakistan Humanitarian Forum (PHF) indicates that funding for relief to the nearly 1.3 million IDPs living in the country is "drying up". Aid agencies requested USD 537 million for relief efforts in Pakistan, but have so far only received USD 170 million. Many IDPs continue to go without basic supplies such as food, medical care, tents, and bedding.

Pakistan’s tribal areas have, over the past two years, witnessed a succession of military operations, each of them declared a great ‘success’ by Islamabad. However, each operation has simply seen the militants ‘squeezed out’ into adjacent areas, with the quantum of violence across the tribal territories and the country at large mounting consistently.

The Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) in Peshawar has now announced that militants had begun ‘fleeing’ to the Tirah Valley of the neighbouring Khyber Agency, and to other areas of FATA, and Afghanistan, due to the success of Operation Khwakh Ba De Sham. According to the ISPR, militants have established hideouts and training centres in the Tirah valley, a region that also hosts the LI. ISPR spokesman Major General Athar Abbas, on April 14, stated that around 7,000 ground troops had taken Lower Orakzai, but gave no indication when the Operation would end. Brigadier (Retd.) Mahmood Shah, a security expert from Peshawar, however, stated "Once the Orakzai operation ends, which will be soon, the military will start an offensive in North Waziristan."

However, going by past trends it can safely be argued that the militants will simply escape to ‘open a new front in another region’. Commenting on the ‘success’ of the South Waziristan Operations, an April 22, 2010, report in Dawn thus noted, "They (TTP) were never routed, no matter what Pakistan claimed. Instead, the Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters have merely relocated. They're still near the Afghan border". Months after Pakistani troops chased them from South Waziristan; these militants established a new base farther north under the protection of insurgent leader Gul Bahadur, who had cut past deals with the Pakistani Army, according to residents, militants and reports from Associated Press correspondents who visited the area recently. The influx of these militants into North Waziristan in recent months has added to the pressure on the military to launch an offensive there. The North Waziristan operation now appears imminent as reports indicated that Pakistan has shifted 100,000 troops from its Indian frontier to spearhead an unprecedented crackdown on the ‘Taliban’ along the Afghanistan border. Significantly, virtually all Pakistan’s operations have exclusively targeted the TTP, and the Afghan Taliban, long recognized as Pakistan’s own cat’s paw against Kabul, has remained strictly outside the purview of military action.

FATA and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa have already seen four major military operations since the launch of Operation Rah-e-Haq (True Path) was lunched in Swat on October 25, 2007. Thousands have since been killed, millions have been displaced, but the prospects of peace appear only to recede further in Pakistan.