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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 8, No. 49, June 14, 2010
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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LTTE:
Diaspora Wars
Asutosha Acharya
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
Amidst
media reports indicating that Tamil Diaspora organisations
in different countries are still making desperate attempts
to keep alive the concept of ‘Tamil Eelam’, suspected
pro-Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
elements, for the first time since the military defeat
of the LTTE in Sri Lanka in May 2009, allegedly executed
a terrorist attack in neighbouring India. In the morning
of June 12, suspected LTTE cadres blasted railway tracks
at Perani Railway Station in Villupuram District in
the Southern Indian State of Tamil Nadu. Passengers
of the approaching Tiruchirapalli-Chennai Rockfort Express
Train escaped unhurt, because the driver applied emergency
brakes in time on hearing a loud explosion. Leaflets
condemning the visit of Sri Lankan President Mahinda
Rajapakse to India [June 8-11] were found from the incident
site, Police said.
Earlier,
on June 8, hundreds of pro-LTTE activists, led by Marumalarchi
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) leader V. Gopalswamy
alias Vaiko, waving pictures of slain LTTE chief
Velupillai Prabhakaran, held protests in Chennai, the
capital city of Tamil Nadu, against Rajapakse’s visit.
Despite
the LTTE’s comprehensive defeat in its own homeland,
Diaspora elements and Tamil sympathisers continue to
garner support abroad, including in India’s Tamil Nadu,
raising vital questions on the future of Tamil radicalism
in Sri Lanka.
Notably,
addressing the Emergency Regulation debate in Parliament,
Sri Lankan Prime Minister D. M. Jayaratne, on June 8,
stated that the LTTE was attempting to re-establish
itself in the country once again, with the backing of
its international network. He stressed the necessity
of the Emergency Regulation to thwart these efforts
and check funding of the LTTE’s revival by the Diaspora
networks. The Prime Minister further stated:
There
are LTTE operatives who are still mingling amongst
civilians. During the last month we have arrested
77 diehard LTTE cadres who are believed to have
been directly involved in terror activities in
the country. Intelligence agencies reported that
Tigers who escaped the military campaign last
year [2009] were collecting weapons they had stashed
away to resume their struggle. LTTE support base
internationally remains strong despite them being
militarily defeated (sic). LTTE fundraising
network is attempting to build apartments and
residential complexes in Sri Lanka’s capital Colombo
and its suburbs for LTTE supporters.
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Significantly,
the Emergency was extended by another month. The Island
nation has been in a State of Emergency since the assassination
of then Foreign Affairs Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar
on August 12, 2005.
Earlier
on January 15, 2010, President Mahinda Rajapakse had
said that Sri Lanka still faced a severe threat from
separatists, though the LTTE has been militarily crushed.
The President mentioned threats posed by the LTTE operatives
in the Jaffna peninsula, claiming that the area had
not been cleared fully, and that LTTE cadres could account
for as many as 10 per cent of the total population in
the District. The President added that LTTE and its
agents would do anything to advance their cause.
That
the Government is still worried about the security scenario
in the country is reflected in the allocation of SLR
201 billion (1.8 billion dollars) for defence in 2010,
down only marginally from an estimated SLF 210 billion
in 2009 and SLR 204 billion in 2008, at the height of
the fighting with the LTTE.
Remnants
of the LTTE remain active in countries outside Sri Lanka,
with regular reports of arrests on charges of terrorist
activities. The most prominent of recent incidents include:
April
27, 2010: Seven suspected LTTE cadres were arrested
in Netherlands along with computers, paperwork, phones,
documents, photos, DVDs and 40,000 Euro. "Among the
suspects are the leaders of various organisations of
Tamils in the Netherlands, which probably play a role
in the international network of the LTTE," the Netherlands
Justice Ministry stated.
March
3, 2010: The German Police arrested six LTTE cadres,
including three German nationals and three Sri Lankan
nationals, suspected of raising funds for the outfit.
The suspects were arrested during raids on eight premises
including the Tamil Coordination Committee (TCC), a
front organisation of the LTTE, in Oberhausen in Essen.
December
11, 2009: Authorities in Thailand arrested five people,
including an LTTE cadre, for producing and smuggling
more than 300 fake European Union passports and other
official European documents, officials said.
Further,
the Sri Lankan Foreign Ministry quoted the Ambassador
of Sri Lanka to Brazil, A.M.J. Sadiq, as stating that
a number of vessels belonging to the LTTE’s shipping
fleet, which had hitherto been involved in drug trafficking
and gun running, had shifted to the lucrative business
of human trafficking.
Moreover,
according to the Malaysian National News Agency Bernama
Today, Malaysian Police had arrested a number of
key LTTE leaders, among other foreign nationals between
August 2009 and March 2010. According to the report,
Malaysian Home Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein
stated that the Malaysian authorities had recently conveyed
information on the arrest of the LTTE leaders to Sri
Lanka's Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapakse.
Meanwhile,
various LTTE leaders residing in US and European countries
have clustered into rival factions, with each attempting
to project itself as the ‘sole representative’ of the
Tamil Diaspora around the world, and to secure access
to the vast funds created by the LTTE.
Soon
after the defeat of the LTTE and the death of its chief,
Velupillai Prabhakaran, the then international head
of the LTTE, Kumaran Pathmanathan alias KP, along
with the New York based Lawyer and International legal
adviser of the LTTE, Viswanathan Rudrakumaran, formulated
the Transitional Government of Tamil Eelam (TGTE) proposal.
On June 22, 2009, just a month after the collapse of
the LTTE, Rudrakumaran issued a media release announcing
the concept of the TGTE in New York:
We,
the people of Tamil Eelam and its Diaspora...
firmly believe that the formation of a Provisional
Transnational Government of Tamil Eelam is imperative.
It is a well accepted proposition in international
law that the legal claim to establish a Government
in exile arises the more readily when the exclusion
of its political leaders is achieved through acts
contrary to principles of jus cogens, such
as the unlawful use of force, abductions with
a view to torture, genocide, war crimes, detention
in internment camps or "open prisons,"
the rape of women and the kidnapping of children.
In this connection, we, the people of Tamil Eelam
and its Diaspora, propose to put together a committee
for the Formation of a Provisional Transnational
Government of Tamil Eelam.
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The release
claimed, however, "Our program and efforts in this
regard are fundamentally democratic."
After
Pathmanathan’s arrest on August 5, 2009, in Malaysia
and his subsequent transportation to Sri Lanka, the
task of taking the TGTE effort forward has been shouldered
by Rudrakumaran alone. On May 17, 2010, Rudrakumaran
disclosed, in a Press statement, that the TGTE would
hold its inaugural sessions in the city of Philadelphia
in the United States (US) for three days between May
17 and 19, to coincide with the first year remembrance
of the military suppression of the LTTE. The communiqué
stated that TGTE "will continue its struggle until
conditions are created which will enable the Tamils
to realize their right to self determination and exercise
their sovereignty."
Rudrakumaran,
who was the co-ordinator of the TGTE formation committee,
was elected as its Interim Chief Executive at the meeting,
and a seven member Interim Executive Committee (IEC)
was also formed. The IEC members included Mahinthan
Sivasubramanium, Sam Sangarasivam, Gerard Francis, Selva
Selvanathan, Vithya Jeyashanker, Sasithar Maheswaran
and Janarthanan Pulendran.
The TGTE
meeting at Philadelphia was the result of a year-long
effort by influential pro- LTTE elements of the global
Tamil Diaspora to create an organisation representing
more than a million Tamils of Sri Lankan origin dispersed
in different parts of the world. The TGTE, in a sense,
is a re-branded manifestation of the LTTE overseas structure.
Like LTTE, its ultimate goal is the creation of ‘Tamil
Eelam’. Although it does not unambiguously endorse the
LTTE, the TGTE’s commitment towards the LTTE was established
clearly at the Philadelphia summit, where LTTE flags
waved in profusion, despite the fact that the LTTE is
a banned foreign terrorist organization in the US.
The establishment
of the TGTE, however, has done little to stem the internecine
conflicts within LTTE Diaspora elements. The struggle
to establish control has resulted in a rise of extremist
rhetoric and postures, with the TGTE itself becoming
more and more hawkish. Although Rudrakumaran is frequently
referred to as the new leader of the LTTE in sections
of the media, the reality has been somewhat ambiguous.
The overseas LTTE structure has been deeply divided
since Prabhakaran’s death. Political commentator D.B.S.
Jeyaraj divided the successor organisations of the LTTE
into three factions, the TGTE, Global Tamil Forum (GTF)
and Tamil Eelam Peoples Assembly (TEPA), also known,
respectively, as the KP or Rudra faction, the GTF or
Father S.J. Emmanuel faction and the Makkal Peravai
or Nediyavan faction.
Sri Lanka’s
Deputy Minister of Resettlement, Vinayagamoorthy Muralitharan
alias Karuna Amman, a former top LTTE ‘commander’,
has also underscored the fact that the Tamil Diaspora
was divided and had conflicting views on the so-called
TGTE. Muralitharan argues that the Tamil Diaspora would
fail to make a significant impact internationally, because
of internal dissensions. He identified three principal
Diaspora factions – the US-based Rudrakumaran group,
the Norway-based Nediyavan faction and the London-based
British Tamil Forum.
Significantly,
Thambiah Ganesh and Kuppilan Ravi, believed to be
members of the Nediyavan group, were arrested in Paris
on June 4, following the death of Ramesh Sivarupan,
believed to be a member of the Rudrakumaran faction.
Sources indicate that Sivarupan was abducted and taken
in a van from his residence in Paris and was later found
near his house with injuries, to which he succumbed
at a hospital in Paris on June 3. Earlier in the week,
the Nediyavan faction had burnt thousands of copies
of Thainilam, a newspaper in Paris printed by
the Rudrakumaran faction.
Besides
internal differences, there is widespread scepticism
about the TGTE exercise. To be, in any measure, relevant
to the Tamils, the TGTE would have to have a public
presence in Sri Lanka, but has no foothold there, and
it is extremely doubtful that it will be able to establish
any such presence. As Muralitharan notes, "How can they
set up a separate State without the support of the Tamils
living in Sri Lanka? ...They (the Tamils in Sri Lanka)
detest the LTTE for having destroyed them. No pro-LTTE
element will get the support of the Tamils to set up
a separate State in Sri Lanka now."
Meanwhile,
there appears to be some
urgency in the Government establishment’s
efforts to develop the war ravaged areas of North and
East. Economic activity in the north has picked up,
though, in the long term, development alone will not
satisfy Sri Lanka’s Tamils. Basic aspirations for equity
and for a restoration of trust and security would have
to be met before the country’s ‘Tamil problem’ can be
thought of as having been resolved. Colombo has to work
out a reasonable political package that will satisfy
Sri Lanka’s minorities, something that President Mahinda
Rajapakse has repeatedly promised. The Government would
also need to take stock of its role in past conflict,
in particular, its record of manipulating ethnic tensions
for electoral gain. It is significant that the militant
Tamil Diaspora was created by the policies and actions
of successive Administrations in Colombo.
The
LTTE is still banned in 32 countries across the world,
and its Diaspora organisations are yet to secure significant
traction abroad, or consolidate linkages with LTTE survivor
groupings in Sri Lanka. Nevertheless, the aspirations
for an independent Tamil Eelam are being kept alive,
and extremist activity, while marginal, persists. These
impulses will continue to seek opportunities for a future
crystallization, and both Colombo and Governments abroad
– particularly including India – will have to exercise
the utmost vigilance to ensure that a terrorist movement
is not able to take root again, even while fullest freedom
for democratic engagement is permitted to peaceful Tamil
groupings.
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Nagaland:
Intractable Talks
Sandipani Dash
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
The 15
year old process of negotiations to solve the Naga insurgency
in India’s Northeast – the earliest and longest insurrection
in the country – appears to be as intractable as the trajectory
of the conflict itself.
The Union
Government has, so far, held at least 70 rounds of peace
talks within as well as outside the country with the National
Socialist Council of Nagaland – Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM),
the principal militant formation in Nagaland. The NSCN-IM
has been under an extended cease-fire agreement with the
Government since July 1997, though talks were first initiated
by then Prime Minister P. V. Narasimha Rao in Paris on
June 15, 1995. Nevertheless, the issue of sovereignty
and the demand for the creation of a ‘Greater Nagaland’
(Nagalim)
comprising Naga-inhabited areas of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
and Manipur, remain bones of enduring contention after
all these years of negotiation.
In February
2010, the Union Government appointed former Union Petroleum
Secretary R.S. Pandey as the new interlocutor to negotiate
with the NSCN-IM. The Government had earlier decided not
to extend the term of former Union Home Secretary K. Padmanabhaiah
as interlocutor with the Naga outfit. Padmanabhaiah had
been appointed for one year as peace interlocutor in July
1999, but had continued to hold this position till his
replacement by Pandey. He was preceded by former Mizoram
Governor Swaraj Kaushal, who was appointed as the first
negotiator for the Naga talks in May 1998.
Since the
appointment of the new interlocutor, three rounds of negotiations
(two in New Delhi and one in Kohima) have been held between
the Union Government and NSCN-IM. The first of these lasted
two days in New Delhi, on March 2 and 3. While the NSCN-IM
delegation led by its general secretary, Thuingaleng Muivah,
submitted a list of 30 demands, including sovereignty
for Nagaland and territorial claims over portions of neighbouring
States, the Centre had prepared a 29-point counter proposal
for the discussions, which included financial sops and
greater autonomy. The NSCN-IM leaders also met Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh and Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram.
The NSCN-IM’s demand for integration of the Naga-inhabited
areas for creation of Nagalim and a separate constitution
to protect the ‘unique identity’ of the Naga people were,
unsurprisingly, rejected by the Union Government, and
were turned down on the second day of the first round
of negotiations in this phase.
The Union
Government was, however, willing to discuss the issue
of expanding the scope of federalism to give greater powers
to the State of Nagaland for the management of natural
resources, within the framework of the Constitution. On
the allegations of violation of cease-fire ground rules
by NSCN-IM cadres, two new committees were instituted
to monitor implementation. One committee was entrusted
with the responsibility of monitoring the situation within
Nagaland, while the other, headed by a Special Secretary
of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), was to deal
with any violation outside Nagaland. Allegations leveled
against NSCN-IM cadres for violation of ground rules are
taken up with the outfit’s leaders from time to time.
According to one official source, "On some occasions,
the NSCN leaders simply deny the allegations, and on others
they give an assurance that they will discipline their
cadres."
Subsequent
to the first round of negotiation, NSCN-IM general secretary,
Thuingaleng Muivah, visited Nagaland where he had held
consultations with community groups, political leaders
and Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs). Pandey, the
Centre’s interlocutor, also undertook a tour to the State
to get feedback from ground level. Earlier, the Nagaland
Assembly had adopted a resolution hailing the Centre’s
move to give fresh impetus to the Naga talks by appointing
an ‘appropriate interlocutor’.
Nevertheless,
addressing the '30th republic day’ celebration
of the NSCN-IM at Camp Hebron, Dimapur, on March 21, Muivah
declared that the "Nagas will not accept Indian Constitution",
and that there could be "no imposition on us". Commenting
his meeting with the Prime Minister and Union Home Minister,
he said, further, that both leaders had tried to push
for a settlement within the Indian Constitution:
But
we categorically rejected the imposition or pre-condition
put before us… We have told both the Prime Minister
and the Home Minister during our meetings in no
uncertain terms that a permanent solution cannot
be found within the Indian Constitution, since the
Naga problem is unique it needs a unique settlement…If
they don't respect the rights of the Naga people,
then there cannot be any solution. If India respects
the rights of Nagas, they will respect them 10 times
more.
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Muivah
argued, further, that asking the Nagas to accept the Indian
Constitution was in total contradiction to the pre-ceasefire
agreement, which clearly stated that talks would be held
at the Prime Minister’s level, in third countries without
pre-conditions. He accused Indian policymakers of ‘backtracking’
from earlier agreements.
Meanwhile,
Pandey stated that India has a concept of ‘shared sovereignty’,
which could satisfy the Nagas. In some matters, he asserted,
States are sovereign, while in others the Center is. The
State List, he said, could be further augmented, keeping
in mind the uniqueness of Naga society: "That is
where we have to explore to settle the problem."
Another
round of talks with the Union Government followed in New
Delhi on April 17. The NSCN-IM had proposed a federal
relationship with the Indian Union with additional financial
and legislative powers, while the Center offered a financial
package for socio-cultural development of the Naga people.
Among the issues in the charter of demands presented to
the Centre, the NSCN-IM pointed out certain taxation matters
and preservation of cultural heritage.
If there
were any substantive gains here, they were quickly dissipated
by Muivah’s plan to visit his native village, Somdal,
in Manipur’s Ukhrul District. [Tamenglong, Senapati, Ukhrul
and Chandel Districts of the neighbouring State figure
in the NSCN-IM’s projected territory of Nagalim].
The visit was indefinitely deferred as a result of widespread
protests and the Manipur Government’s decision not to
allow him to enter the State, and a subsequent intervention
by the Union Government requesting Muivah to delay his
visit. Substantial damage had, however, already been done,
with ethnic polarization in Manipur worsening and a transport
blockade in Naga dominated areas choking off supplies
– including essential commodities – to Manipur. Even as
Muivah insists he will go ahead with his visit at an undefined
date, violent protests and counter-protests have virtually
paralysed normal life across Manipur. The State Irrigation
Minister and Government Spokesperson N. Biren Singh, on
June 9, disclosed that Manipur was facing an acute shortage
of food and medicines, with supplies of essentials cut
off for the 60th day, following the indefinite
economic blockade: "The food crisis is simply acute
and also there is a severe shortage of life saving medicines
with the blockade entering the 60th day and
still no chance of breaking the deadlock." Meanwhile,
at the time of writing, Union Home Secretary G. K. Pillai
said that additional Central Forces would move in on June
15, to break the 65 day-old Manipur blockade.
The crisis
in Manipur could not be resolved even after a third round
of talks with the 12-member NSCN-IM team, led by Muivah,
at Kohima in Nagaland on June 1. The joint Press Conference,
at the end of the talks disclosed zero progress, with
statements worded in vacuous generalizations about the
"sensitive" problem, and the agreement to "find
solution to the Naga issue that is honorable and acceptable
on the basis of the uniqueness of the Naga history."
Pandey refused to comment on the impasse in Manipur and,
when questioned by the media, retorted, "You ask Mr. Muivah."
Muivah,
on the other hand, declared, "The sovereignty of
the Naga people lies with the Naga people and not with
others", and insisted that the crisis in Manipur
was created, not by Nagas, but by the Manipur Government
and it should be solved by them with the Government of
India (GoI). He accused the Armed Forces of Manipur of
using force on a Naga ‘peace procession’, killing two
students and injuring about 100 others, at Mao Gate in
Senapati District on May 6: "The Naga people rallying
for the right cause were just smashed out and hundreds
of them were wounded. That is a big mistake."
Subsequent
to the third round of negotiations, Muivah shifted to
Pfutsero in Phek District in Nagaland on a ‘goodwill mission’,
after camping at Viswema in Kohima District, bordering
Manipur, for nearly a month. Sources indicate that the
NSCN-IM leader has plans to enter Manipur from the Kohima-Jessami
Road, and the Manipur Government has rushed additional
State Forces to Ukhrul and Senapati Districts to prevent
any such attempt.
Meanwhile,
the NSCN-IM’s bete noire, the National Socialist
Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K),
under an extended cease-fire agreement with the Union
Government since April 2001, has rejected the GoI’s negotiation
process with the NSCN-IM as a ‘localized issue’ revolving
around ‘an individual’s visit to his native village in
Manipur’, and not representative of Naga aspirations.
The NSCN-K has infact accused the Naga Hoho, the
apex council of Naga tribes, of escalating tensions in
Manipur. The Khapalng faction stated that the Hoho,
once regarded as the epitome of Naga ingenuity, maturity
and statesmanship, has suddenly turned into a group of
‘wanton boys throwing flaming balls into the neighbourhood
in accordance to the script written by Muivah’.
Despite
the fractious rhetoric, however, there has been a significant
decline in factional clashes among warring Naga groups
in recent years, at least in part due to the reconciliatory
efforts of the Church-led Forum for Naga Reconciliation
(FNR). According to the SATP database, internecine
clashes escalated sharply through 2005-2008, but have
registered a dramatic reduction thereafter.
Internecine
Clashes in Nagaland: 2001-2010
Year
|
Clash
|
Killed
|
Injured
|
2001
|
4
|
13
|
2
|
2002
|
8
|
22
|
0
|
2003
|
6
|
14
|
0
|
2004
|
23
|
21
|
2
|
2005
|
14
|
28
|
6
|
2006
|
54
|
69
|
31
|
2007
|
56
|
82
|
29
|
2008
|
75
|
110
|
14
|
2009
|
11
|
9
|
6
|
2010*
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
*Data
till June 13, 2010
Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP)
Nevertheless,
the decline in Naga fratricidal clashes coincides with
little evidence of compliance with the cease-fire ground
rules, which stipulate that the militants stay in designated
camps, ban their movement in uniform and with arms, and
prohibit extortion.
The Naga National Council (NNC), another armed group in
Nagaland, for instance, recently alleged that around 30
to 40 armed NSCN-IM cadres had been roaming around in
uniform ‘in combat gesture’ in the Khiamniungan region
since May 28, 2010, adding that such ‘antagonistic’ action
of the NSCN-IM was against the will of the Khiamniungan
people, and would only invite armed conflict ‘once again’.
Significantly,
the MHA has ordered the National Investigation Agency
(NIA) to probe allegations by Central intelligence agencies
that the NSCN-IM was rearming. The Intelligence Bureau
(IB) has claimed that the outfit was procuring sophisticated
weapons, arms and ammunition — mostly of Chinese origin
— and getting clear support from a ‘neighbouring country’.
An unnamed senior NIA official stated, in March 2010,
"We have registered an FIR against some NSCN members and
started the investigation. The IB report clearly points
to the outfit’s nefarious designs to destabilise the Northeast.
We are also probing the extent of their links with China."
In further
and sustained violations of the Ground Rules, the NSCN-IM
has been extorting huge sums of money from individuals
and organisations involved in implementing development
projects. The Naga group has, in fact, openly declared
that, as per the decision of its ‘tatar hoho (parliament)
budget session’, the ‘annual ration tax’ has been fixed
at INR 200 per household for fiscal year 2010-2011. In
a Press note issued on April 21, 2010, the NSCN-IM ‘chaplee
(finance) affairs secretary’ Q. Awomi asked ‘all responsible’
to ‘cooperate’ with its ‘officials/staff’, who would be
deputed for the purpose: "This rate of ration tax
comes into force with immediate effect."
A spillover
of the Naga insurgency also afflicts territories lying
beyond the borders of Nagaland. The SATP Database
indicates that at least 143 persons were killed in 181
NSCN-IM related incidents across the Northeast, outside
Nagaland, through 2001-2010. While 114 insurgents were
killed, civilian and Security Force fatalities were 17
and 9, respectively, during this period.
Fatalities
involving NSCN-IM in Northeast out side Nagaland: 2001-2010
Year
|
Incidents
|
Civilians
|
Security
Forces
|
Insurgents
|
Total
|
|
7
|
4
|
0
|
5
|
9
|
2002
|
16
|
0
|
3
|
22
|
25
|
2003
|
19
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
6
|
2004
|
18
|
2
|
3
|
8
|
13
|
2005
|
21
|
0
|
0
|
17
|
17
|
2006
|
12
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
2007
|
38
|
6
|
3
|
25
|
34
|
2008
|
28
|
0
|
0
|
13
|
13
|
2009
|
13
|
5
|
0
|
16
|
21
|
2010*
|
9
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
* Data
till June 13, 2010
Source: SATP
On July
28, 2009, Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram had also
expressed concern in Parliament over the violation of
cease-fire agreements by the NSCN-IM and NSCN-K elements
active in the Tirap and Changlang Districts of Arunachal
Pradesh noting that, "despite cease-fire arrangement
with insurgent groups, violations do happen and we have
taken a grave notice of this." Fratricidal
violence between the Naga groups also
carried over into Arunachal Pradesh, where the Assam-based
United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA)
and the Manipur-based United National Liberation Front
(UNLF)
had become party to area domination exercises by the NSCN
groupings. ULFA and UNLF had reportedly aligned with the
NSCN-K in its fight against the NSCN-IM, for competitive
recruitment in the Naga populated regions of Arunachal
Pradesh. The neighbouring State’s territory had also been
used by the Naga groups for gun running across the India-Myanmar
border. Similarly, the NSCN-IM’s increasing activities
in Assam’s border Districts of North Cachar Hills, Karbi
Anglong, Golaghat, Jorhat, Sibsagar and Tinsukia were
confirmed by Assam’s Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, at Guwahati,
on February 13, 2010.
The NSCN-IM’s
belligerent
intrusions into the Naga populated
areas of the Manipur Hills continue, supported by the
patronage the militant organization consistently receives
from community groups and Government officials working
in the region. In February 2009, an attempt by the NSCN-IM
to establish a permanent camp at Siroy in Ukhrul District
was foiled. After a two-week standoff, the insurgents,
who had already set up the camp, were provided safe passage
out of the State by Assam Rifles personnel, and the camp
was dismantled. However, another three unauthorised camps
– established prior to the 1997 cease-fire between the
NSCN-IM and the Union Government in Nagaland – at Bonning
(Senapati District), Ooklong (Tamenglong District) and
Phungchong (Chandel District), continue to exist in Manipur.
Amidst the current violent protest over Muivah’s proposed
visit to Manipur, a suspected NSCN-IM cadre was killed
when the bomb he was planting under a bridge along the
stretch of the Imphal-Mao section of the National Highway-39
in Senapati District blew up on May 18, 2010.
The continued
cease-fire violation in Nagaland coupled with expanding
area domination exercise of the Naga armed groups across
the Northeast leave little scope for negotiations in good
faith for an end to the Naga insurrection. The charade
of talks, however, can be expected to go on, even as each
party to the conflict continues to seek to alter the distribution
of power on the ground.
|
Weekly
Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
June 7-13,
2010
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists/Insurgents
|
Total
|
INDIA
|
|
Assam
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Jammu and
Kashmir
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Manipur
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
Left-wing
Extremism
|
|
Chhattisgarh
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
Jharkhand
|
1
|
0
|
10
|
11
|
Orissa
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
West Bengal
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
Total
(INDIA)
|
6
|
1
|
16
|
23
|
NEPAL
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Balochistan
|
6
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
FATA
|
3
|
8
|
129
|
140
|
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
|
4
|
0
|
3
|
7
|
Sindh
|
4
|
2
|
0
|
6
|
Total
(PAKISTAN)
|
17
|
10
|
132
|
159
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
|
BANGLADESH
JMB capable
of launching major attacks: The
Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), believed to have
weakened in recent years, still has around 400 full-time
cadres across the country and a military wing capable of
launching major attacks. The Islamist outfit also has huge
cache of explosives, handmade bombs and grenades stashed
at different dens, according to state agencies.
Daily
Star, June 13, 2010.
INDIA
600-800
militants waiting to intrude, says Army: There
is no let-up on Pakistan's part to send terrorists from across
the border and 600 to 800 militants were waiting to infiltrate,
said Northern Army Commander Lt. Gen. B S Jaswal. He, however,
added that the Army had succeeded in keeping the infiltrators
at bay by adopting a ‘three-pronged strategy’. "There is no
let-up on the part of Pakistan in trying to send across terrorists.
But if you see the statistics this year, they have not been
able to make any inroads," he stated. He said, 70 militants
had infiltrated by this time last year [2009] while this year
[2010], only 12 could infiltrate as per the assessment. Explaining
the Army's strategy to prevent infiltration, Jaswal said,
"First strategy is to ensure no one comes in. Second is the
intelligence base and the third is the defence line and the
anti-infiltration position".
Daily
Excelsior, June 13, 2010.
'ISI guided
LeT at every step for 26/11', reveals LeT operative David
Headley: Pakistan-born American
Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) operative David Headley has confirmed
that LeT terrorists carried out the November 26, 2008 (also
known as 26/11) Mumbai attacks under the "guidance" of Pakistan's
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Headley, who was interrogated
in the US by a team of Nation Investigation Agency (NIA) officials,
has said that the ISI was engaged with the LeT commanders
responsible for the 26/11 carnage at "each and every stage
of the plot".
Times
of India, June 10, 2010.
13 militant
outfits of Northeast figure in MHA’s list of banned organizations:
13 militant organizations
from the North-eastern States of Assam, Manipur, Tripura and
Meghalaya figure in the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA)
list of banned organizations. The United Liberation Front
of Asom (ULFA), National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB),
People's Liberation Army (PLA), United National Liberation
Front (UNLF), People's Revolutionary party of Kangleipak (PREPAK),
Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP), Kanglei Yaol Kanna Lup (KYKL),
Manipur People's Liberation Front (MPLF), Revolutionary People's
Front (RPF), All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF), National Liberation
Front of Tripura (NLFT) Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council
(HNLC) and Achik National Volunteer Council (ANVC) were the
outfits in the list.
Sentinel
Assam, June 8, 2010.
CPI-Maoist
groups to make inroads in Northeast, indicates report: Reports
indicate that there are efforts by Communist Party of India-Maoist
(CPI-Maoist) groups to make inroads in the Northeast. The
report adds that the Prashanta Bose alias Kishanda
led Eastern Region Bureau of the CPI-Maoist had been entrusted
with the task of establishing a foothold in the Northeast.
Assam
Tribune, June 8, 2010.
Ready to
talk to anyone in Kashmir, says Prime Minister Manmohan Singh:
Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh on June 7 said that his Government
was ready to "carry forward" the dialogue process in Jammu
and Kashmir and talk to anyone who abhorred violence and terrorism.
Times
of India, June 8, 2010.
No change
in Kashmir policy, says US State Department spokesman P. J.
Crowley: Asserting that there
is "no change" in its Kashmir policy, the US State Department
spokesman, P.J. Crowley, on June 9, said that India and Pakistan
would make progress on resolving the "important issue". Earlier,
on the same day, appearing at a state department Blog Forum,
Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, Robert
Blake, said there is no change in America's policy on Kashmir.
"No, there's no change right now," Blake said, in response
to a question. "I think at this point the top priority
for India and Pakistan is, first, to kind of get their own
bilateral dialogues going in a more systematic way," he added.
Times of India, June 9, 2010.
CPI-Maoist
asks South Eastern Railway to contact for smooth train services:
The Communist Party of India-Maoist
(CPI-Maoist) leader of the West Bengal unit Akash said in
statement released on June 10 that South Eastern Railway (SER)
authorities should directly contact the Maoists to ensure
the smooth running of trains in Maoist-affected areas.
The
Hindu, June 11, 2010.
Army will
not fight Naxals, says Cabinet Committee on Security: The
Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) that met in New Delhi
on June 10 has decided not to use the Army in a "combat role"
in the ongoing anti-Naxal (Left Wing Extremist) battle. The
Union Government and States will, instead, recruit ex-servicemen
– including retired sappers for de-mining exercises – on contractual
basis to fill the gap, and will focus on strengthening paramilitary
and Police personnel through intensive training and recruitment
programmes. Role of armed forces will only be limited to "training".
Times
of India, June 12, 2010.
ULFA ready
for talks, says Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi: Assam
Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi on June 13 said a top leader of
the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) had formally conveyed
to him that the outfit was ready to hold talks with the Government.
He, however, declined to say whether the State Government
had received a formal communiqué from the ULFA leader.
The
Hindu, June 14, 2010.
PAKISTAN
129 militants
and eight Security Force personnel among 140 persons killed
during the week in FATA: 10
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants were killed and
six others injured when fighter jets targeted their hideouts
at Orakzai Agency in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA),
security sources said on June 12.
A series of
US missiles attack killed 15 TTP militants in North Waziristan
on June 11.
Three militants
were killed when a US drone fired two missiles at a house
in North Waziristan on June 10.
TTP militants
attacked two security checkpoints in Mohmand Agency resulting
in a gun battle that killed two soldiers and 40 militants
on June 9. Separately, 14 militants were killed and three
Security Forces (SF) personnel injured in clashes in various
areas of Upper Orakzai Agency.
Six soldiers
were killed and eight others injured when TTP militants stormed
a checkpoint in Orakzai Agency on June 8. A retaliatory strike
by the Army killed 35 militants and injured another 17.
The SFs killed
at least 12 TTP militants and injured another 20 in Orakzai
Agency on June 7. Dawn;
Daily
Times; The
News, June 8-14, 2010.
Four million
Pakistanis live under Taliban rule, says Amnesty International:
Nearly four million
people are living under Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) rule
in Pakistan's northwest, suffering human rights abuses from
the extremists as well as the military, Amnesty International
(AI) said on June 10. According to the report titled "As If
Hell Fell on Me", more than 1,300 civilians were killed in
fighting between the Pakistani troops and the TTP in 2009
while more than one million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)
are still in various towns.
Daily
Times, June 11, 2010.
ISI supporting
Afghan Taliban as "official policy'': The
Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), Pakistan's external intelligence
agency, has been accused of supporting the Afghan Taliban
as part of its "official policy'' which is said to include
funding, training and providing sanctuary to militants. A
report by the London School of Economics claimed that the
level of Pakistan's support for the Taliban was "very
extensive'' and on a much larger scale than was previously
assumed. The report, said to be based on interviews with Taliban
field commanders and corroborated by western security officials,
said there was a "strong'' case that the "ISI orchestrates,
sustains and shapes the overall insurgent campaign.'' The
Hindu, June 14, 2010.
Taliban
leadership has fled Pakistan and Afghanistan, claims Foreign
Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi: Pakistan
military's successful operations in tribal areas have forced
many important Taliban leaders to flee outside Pakistan and
Afghanistan, claimed Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi,
while addressing a joint Press Conference with his Afghanistan
and Turkish counterparts on June 7.
Daily
Times, June 8, 2010.
North Waziristan
next priority in the fight against the TTP, says Foreign Minister:
Pakistan’s next priority
in the fight against the Taliban (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan,
TTP) is North Waziristan, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi
said on June 9 in Istanbul in Turkey. He said the Army was
moving toward an offensive in North Waziristan in a ‘calculated
fashion’ after an earlier successful operation in South Waziristan.
Daily
Times, June 10, 2010.
No military
operation on cards says, Balochistan Chief Minister: Balochistan
Chief Minister Nawab Muhammad Aslam Raisani said on June 9
that no military operation was on the cards in the Province
and that no operation could be justified, as the law and order
here was comparatively better than other provinces. He categorically
dispelled the impression that a military operation in Balochistan
was being planned and said efforts were afoot to improve law
and order in the Province.
The
News, June10, 2010.
Punjab won’t
allow military operation in province, says Law Minister: The
Punjab Government will strongly oppose any Rah-e-Nijat
(path to salvation) style military operation against extremists
in the Province, Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah said on
June 10. He said search operations of law enforcement agencies
were already underway in the area and therefore there was
no need for a military operation.
Daily
Times, June 11, 2010.
SRI LANKA
LTTE re-emerging
a year after their defeat, says Prime Minister D. M. Jayaratne:
The Liberation Tigers
of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) cadres are re-emerging a year after
their defeat despite launching no attacks, Prime Minister
D.M. Jayaratne said on June 8. Jayaratne told Parliament that
remnants of the LTTE were planning a comeback with financial
backing from Tamils abroad.
Meanwhile,
Sri Lanka's Government on June 8 proposed maintaining defence
spending at nearly the same level as in the final year of
its massive military offensive against the rebels. Figures
presented to Parliament showed that the Government had allocated
201 billion rupees (1.8 billion dollars) on defence for 2010,
down marginally from an estimated 210 billion spent in 2009.
Economic
Times, June 9, 2010.
The South
Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that
brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on
terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on
counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on
related economic, political, and social issues, in the South
Asian region.
SAIR is a project
of the Institute
for Conflict Management
and the
South
Asia Terrorism Portal.
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