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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 8, No. 49, June 14, 2010

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

 


SRI LANKA
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LTTE: Diaspora Wars
Asutosha Acharya
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

Amidst media reports indicating that Tamil Diaspora organisations in different countries are still making desperate attempts to keep alive the concept of ‘Tamil Eelam’, suspected pro-Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) elements, for the first time since the military defeat of the LTTE in Sri Lanka in May 2009, allegedly executed a terrorist attack in neighbouring India. In the morning of June 12, suspected LTTE cadres blasted railway tracks at Perani Railway Station in Villupuram District in the Southern Indian State of Tamil Nadu. Passengers of the approaching Tiruchirapalli-Chennai Rockfort Express Train escaped unhurt, because the driver applied emergency brakes in time on hearing a loud explosion. Leaflets condemning the visit of Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse to India [June 8-11] were found from the incident site, Police said.

Earlier, on June 8, hundreds of pro-LTTE activists, led by Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) leader V. Gopalswamy alias Vaiko, waving pictures of slain LTTE chief Velupillai Prabhakaran, held protests in Chennai, the capital city of Tamil Nadu, against Rajapakse’s visit.

Despite the LTTE’s comprehensive defeat in its own homeland, Diaspora elements and Tamil sympathisers continue to garner support abroad, including in India’s Tamil Nadu, raising vital questions on the future of Tamil radicalism in Sri Lanka.

Notably, addressing the Emergency Regulation debate in Parliament, Sri Lankan Prime Minister D. M. Jayaratne, on June 8, stated that the LTTE was attempting to re-establish itself in the country once again, with the backing of its international network. He stressed the necessity of the Emergency Regulation to thwart these efforts and check funding of the LTTE’s revival by the Diaspora networks. The Prime Minister further stated:

There are LTTE operatives who are still mingling amongst civilians. During the last month we have arrested 77 diehard LTTE cadres who are believed to have been directly involved in terror activities in the country. Intelligence agencies reported that Tigers who escaped the military campaign last year [2009] were collecting weapons they had stashed away to resume their struggle. LTTE support base internationally remains strong despite them being militarily defeated (sic). LTTE fundraising network is attempting to build apartments and residential complexes in Sri Lanka’s capital Colombo and its suburbs for LTTE supporters.

Significantly, the Emergency was extended by another month. The Island nation has been in a State of Emergency since the assassination of then Foreign Affairs Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar on August 12, 2005.

Earlier on January 15, 2010, President Mahinda Rajapakse had said that Sri Lanka still faced a severe threat from separatists, though the LTTE has been militarily crushed. The President mentioned threats posed by the LTTE operatives in the Jaffna peninsula, claiming that the area had not been cleared fully, and that LTTE cadres could account for as many as 10 per cent of the total population in the District. The President added that LTTE and its agents would do anything to advance their cause.

That the Government is still worried about the security scenario in the country is reflected in the allocation of SLR 201 billion (1.8 billion dollars) for defence in 2010, down only marginally from an estimated SLF 210 billion in 2009 and SLR 204 billion in 2008, at the height of the fighting with the LTTE.

Remnants of the LTTE remain active in countries outside Sri Lanka, with regular reports of arrests on charges of terrorist activities. The most prominent of recent incidents include:

April 27, 2010: Seven suspected LTTE cadres were arrested in Netherlands along with computers, paperwork, phones, documents, photos, DVDs and 40,000 Euro. "Among the suspects are the leaders of various organisations of Tamils in the Netherlands, which probably play a role in the international network of the LTTE," the Netherlands Justice Ministry stated.

March 3, 2010: The German Police arrested six LTTE cadres, including three German nationals and three Sri Lankan nationals, suspected of raising funds for the outfit. The suspects were arrested during raids on eight premises including the Tamil Coordination Committee (TCC), a front organisation of the LTTE, in Oberhausen in Essen.

December 11, 2009: Authorities in Thailand arrested five people, including an LTTE cadre, for producing and smuggling more than 300 fake European Union passports and other official European documents, officials said.

Further, the Sri Lankan Foreign Ministry quoted the Ambassador of Sri Lanka to Brazil, A.M.J. Sadiq, as stating that a number of vessels belonging to the LTTE’s shipping fleet, which had hitherto been involved in drug trafficking and gun running, had shifted to the lucrative business of human trafficking.

Moreover, according to the Malaysian National News Agency Bernama Today, Malaysian Police had arrested a number of key LTTE leaders, among other foreign nationals between August 2009 and March 2010. According to the report, Malaysian Home Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein stated that the Malaysian authorities had recently conveyed information on the arrest of the LTTE leaders to Sri Lanka's Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapakse.

Meanwhile, various LTTE leaders residing in US and European countries have clustered into rival factions, with each attempting to project itself as the ‘sole representative’ of the Tamil Diaspora around the world, and to secure access to the vast funds created by the LTTE.

Soon after the defeat of the LTTE and the death of its chief, Velupillai Prabhakaran, the then international head of the LTTE, Kumaran Pathmanathan alias KP, along with the New York based Lawyer and International legal adviser of the LTTE, Viswanathan Rudrakumaran, formulated the Transitional Government of Tamil Eelam (TGTE) proposal. On June 22, 2009, just a month after the collapse of the LTTE, Rudrakumaran issued a media release announcing the concept of the TGTE in New York:

We, the people of Tamil Eelam and its Diaspora... firmly believe that the formation of a Provisional Transnational Government of Tamil Eelam is imperative. It is a well accepted proposition in international law that the legal claim to establish a Government in exile arises the more readily when the exclusion of its political leaders is achieved through acts contrary to principles of jus cogens, such as the unlawful use of force, abductions with a view to torture, genocide, war crimes, detention in internment camps or "open prisons," the rape of women and the kidnapping of children. In this connection, we, the people of Tamil Eelam and its Diaspora, propose to put together a committee for the Formation of a Provisional Transnational Government of Tamil Eelam.

The release claimed, however, "Our program and efforts in this regard are fundamentally democratic."

After Pathmanathan’s arrest on August 5, 2009, in Malaysia and his subsequent transportation to Sri Lanka, the task of taking the TGTE effort forward has been shouldered by Rudrakumaran alone. On May 17, 2010, Rudrakumaran disclosed, in a Press statement, that the TGTE would hold its inaugural sessions in the city of Philadelphia in the United States (US) for three days between May 17 and 19, to coincide with the first year remembrance of the military suppression of the LTTE. The communiqué stated that TGTE "will continue its struggle until conditions are created which will enable the Tamils to realize their right to self determination and exercise their sovereignty."

Rudrakumaran, who was the co-ordinator of the TGTE formation committee, was elected as its Interim Chief Executive at the meeting, and a seven member Interim Executive Committee (IEC) was also formed. The IEC members included Mahinthan Sivasubramanium, Sam Sangarasivam, Gerard Francis, Selva Selvanathan, Vithya Jeyashanker, Sasithar Maheswaran and Janarthanan Pulendran.

The TGTE meeting at Philadelphia was the result of a year-long effort by influential pro- LTTE elements of the global Tamil Diaspora to create an organisation representing more than a million Tamils of Sri Lankan origin dispersed in different parts of the world. The TGTE, in a sense, is a re-branded manifestation of the LTTE overseas structure. Like LTTE, its ultimate goal is the creation of ‘Tamil Eelam’. Although it does not unambiguously endorse the LTTE, the TGTE’s commitment towards the LTTE was established clearly at the Philadelphia summit, where LTTE flags waved in profusion, despite the fact that the LTTE is a banned foreign terrorist organization in the US.

The establishment of the TGTE, however, has done little to stem the internecine conflicts within LTTE Diaspora elements. The struggle to establish control has resulted in a rise of extremist rhetoric and postures, with the TGTE itself becoming more and more hawkish. Although Rudrakumaran is frequently referred to as the new leader of the LTTE in sections of the media, the reality has been somewhat ambiguous. The overseas LTTE structure has been deeply divided since Prabhakaran’s death. Political commentator D.B.S. Jeyaraj divided the successor organisations of the LTTE into three factions, the TGTE, Global Tamil Forum (GTF) and Tamil Eelam Peoples Assembly (TEPA), also known, respectively, as the KP or Rudra faction, the GTF or Father S.J. Emmanuel faction and the Makkal Peravai or Nediyavan faction.

Sri Lanka’s Deputy Minister of Resettlement, Vinayagamoorthy Muralitharan alias Karuna Amman, a former top LTTE ‘commander’, has also underscored the fact that the Tamil Diaspora was divided and had conflicting views on the so-called TGTE. Muralitharan argues that the Tamil Diaspora would fail to make a significant impact internationally, because of internal dissensions. He identified three principal Diaspora factions – the US-based Rudrakumaran group, the Norway-based Nediyavan faction and the London-based British Tamil Forum.

Significantly, Thambiah Ganesh and Kuppilan Ravi, believed to be members of the Nediyavan group, were arrested in Paris on June 4, following the death of Ramesh Sivarupan, believed to be a member of the Rudrakumaran faction. Sources indicate that Sivarupan was abducted and taken in a van from his residence in Paris and was later found near his house with injuries, to which he succumbed at a hospital in Paris on June 3. Earlier in the week, the Nediyavan faction had burnt thousands of copies of Thainilam, a newspaper in Paris printed by the Rudrakumaran faction.

Besides internal differences, there is widespread scepticism about the TGTE exercise. To be, in any measure, relevant to the Tamils, the TGTE would have to have a public presence in Sri Lanka, but has no foothold there, and it is extremely doubtful that it will be able to establish any such presence. As Muralitharan notes, "How can they set up a separate State without the support of the Tamils living in Sri Lanka? ...They (the Tamils in Sri Lanka) detest the LTTE for having destroyed them. No pro-LTTE element will get the support of the Tamils to set up a separate State in Sri Lanka now."

Meanwhile, there appears to be some urgency in the Government establishment’s efforts to develop the war ravaged areas of North and East. Economic activity in the north has picked up, though, in the long term, development alone will not satisfy Sri Lanka’s Tamils. Basic aspirations for equity and for a restoration of trust and security would have to be met before the country’s ‘Tamil problem’ can be thought of as having been resolved. Colombo has to work out a reasonable political package that will satisfy Sri Lanka’s minorities, something that President Mahinda Rajapakse has repeatedly promised. The Government would also need to take stock of its role in past conflict, in particular, its record of manipulating ethnic tensions for electoral gain. It is significant that the militant Tamil Diaspora was created by the policies and actions of successive Administrations in Colombo.

The LTTE is still banned in 32 countries across the world, and its Diaspora organisations are yet to secure significant traction abroad, or consolidate linkages with LTTE survivor groupings in Sri Lanka. Nevertheless, the aspirations for an independent Tamil Eelam are being kept alive, and extremist activity, while marginal, persists. These impulses will continue to seek opportunities for a future crystallization, and both Colombo and Governments abroad – particularly including India – will have to exercise the utmost vigilance to ensure that a terrorist movement is not able to take root again, even while fullest freedom for democratic engagement is permitted to peaceful Tamil groupings.

INDIA
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Nagaland: Intractable Talks
Sandipani Dash
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

The 15 year old process of negotiations to solve the Naga insurgency in India’s Northeast – the earliest and longest insurrection in the country – appears to be as intractable as the trajectory of the conflict itself.

The Union Government has, so far, held at least 70 rounds of peace talks within as well as outside the country with the National Socialist Council of Nagaland – Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM), the principal militant formation in Nagaland. The NSCN-IM has been under an extended cease-fire agreement with the Government since July 1997, though talks were first initiated by then Prime Minister P. V. Narasimha Rao in Paris on June 15, 1995. Nevertheless, the issue of sovereignty and the demand for the creation of a ‘Greater Nagaland’ (Nagalim) comprising Naga-inhabited areas of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur, remain bones of enduring contention after all these years of negotiation.

In February 2010, the Union Government appointed former Union Petroleum Secretary R.S. Pandey as the new interlocutor to negotiate with the NSCN-IM. The Government had earlier decided not to extend the term of former Union Home Secretary K. Padmanabhaiah as interlocutor with the Naga outfit. Padmanabhaiah had been appointed for one year as peace interlocutor in July 1999, but had continued to hold this position till his replacement by Pandey. He was preceded by former Mizoram Governor Swaraj Kaushal, who was appointed as the first negotiator for the Naga talks in May 1998.

Since the appointment of the new interlocutor, three rounds of negotiations (two in New Delhi and one in Kohima) have been held between the Union Government and NSCN-IM. The first of these lasted two days in New Delhi, on March 2 and 3. While the NSCN-IM delegation led by its general secretary, Thuingaleng Muivah, submitted a list of 30 demands, including sovereignty for Nagaland and territorial claims over portions of neighbouring States, the Centre had prepared a 29-point counter proposal for the discussions, which included financial sops and greater autonomy. The NSCN-IM leaders also met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram. The NSCN-IM’s demand for integration of the Naga-inhabited areas for creation of Nagalim and a separate constitution to protect the ‘unique identity’ of the Naga people were, unsurprisingly, rejected by the Union Government, and were turned down on the second day of the first round of negotiations in this phase.

The Union Government was, however, willing to discuss the issue of expanding the scope of federalism to give greater powers to the State of Nagaland for the management of natural resources, within the framework of the Constitution. On the allegations of violation of cease-fire ground rules by NSCN-IM cadres, two new committees were instituted to monitor implementation. One committee was entrusted with the responsibility of monitoring the situation within Nagaland, while the other, headed by a Special Secretary of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), was to deal with any violation outside Nagaland. Allegations leveled against NSCN-IM cadres for violation of ground rules are taken up with the outfit’s leaders from time to time. According to one official source, "On some occasions, the NSCN leaders simply deny the allegations, and on others they give an assurance that they will discipline their cadres."

Subsequent to the first round of negotiation, NSCN-IM general secretary, Thuingaleng Muivah, visited Nagaland where he had held consultations with community groups, political leaders and Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs). Pandey, the Centre’s interlocutor, also undertook a tour to the State to get feedback from ground level. Earlier, the Nagaland Assembly had adopted a resolution hailing the Centre’s move to give fresh impetus to the Naga talks by appointing an ‘appropriate interlocutor’.

Nevertheless, addressing the '30th republic day’ celebration of the NSCN-IM at Camp Hebron, Dimapur, on March 21, Muivah declared that the "Nagas will not accept Indian Constitution", and that there could be "no imposition on us". Commenting his meeting with the Prime Minister and Union Home Minister, he said, further, that both leaders had tried to push for a settlement within the Indian Constitution:

But we categorically rejected the imposition or pre-condition put before us… We have told both the Prime Minister and the Home Minister during our meetings in no uncertain terms that a permanent solution cannot be found within the Indian Constitution, since the Naga problem is unique it needs a unique settlement…If they don't respect the rights of the Naga people, then there cannot be any solution. If India respects the rights of Nagas, they will respect them 10 times more.

Muivah argued, further, that asking the Nagas to accept the Indian Constitution was in total contradiction to the pre-ceasefire agreement, which clearly stated that talks would be held at the Prime Minister’s level, in third countries without pre-conditions. He accused Indian policymakers of ‘backtracking’ from earlier agreements.

Meanwhile, Pandey stated that India has a concept of ‘shared sovereignty’, which could satisfy the Nagas. In some matters, he asserted, States are sovereign, while in others the Center is. The State List, he said, could be further augmented, keeping in mind the uniqueness of Naga society: "That is where we have to explore to settle the problem."

Another round of talks with the Union Government followed in New Delhi on April 17. The NSCN-IM had proposed a federal relationship with the Indian Union with additional financial and legislative powers, while the Center offered a financial package for socio-cultural development of the Naga people. Among the issues in the charter of demands presented to the Centre, the NSCN-IM pointed out certain taxation matters and preservation of cultural heritage.

If there were any substantive gains here, they were quickly dissipated by Muivah’s plan to visit his native village, Somdal, in Manipur’s Ukhrul District. [Tamenglong, Senapati, Ukhrul and Chandel Districts of the neighbouring State figure in the NSCN-IM’s projected territory of Nagalim]. The visit was indefinitely deferred as a result of widespread protests and the Manipur Government’s decision not to allow him to enter the State, and a subsequent intervention by the Union Government requesting Muivah to delay his visit. Substantial damage had, however, already been done, with ethnic polarization in Manipur worsening and a transport blockade in Naga dominated areas choking off supplies – including essential commodities – to Manipur. Even as Muivah insists he will go ahead with his visit at an undefined date, violent protests and counter-protests have virtually paralysed normal life across Manipur. The State Irrigation Minister and Government Spokesperson N. Biren Singh, on June 9, disclosed that Manipur was facing an acute shortage of food and medicines, with supplies of essentials cut off for the 60th day, following the indefinite economic blockade: "The food crisis is simply acute and also there is a severe shortage of life saving medicines with the blockade entering the 60th day and still no chance of breaking the deadlock." Meanwhile, at the time of writing, Union Home Secretary G. K. Pillai said that additional Central Forces would move in on June 15, to break the 65 day-old Manipur blockade.

The crisis in Manipur could not be resolved even after a third round of talks with the 12-member NSCN-IM team, led by Muivah, at Kohima in Nagaland on June 1. The joint Press Conference, at the end of the talks disclosed zero progress, with statements worded in vacuous generalizations about the "sensitive" problem, and the agreement to "find solution to the Naga issue that is honorable and acceptable on the basis of the uniqueness of the Naga history." Pandey refused to comment on the impasse in Manipur and, when questioned by the media, retorted, "You ask Mr. Muivah."

Muivah, on the other hand, declared, "The sovereignty of the Naga people lies with the Naga people and not with others", and insisted that the crisis in Manipur was created, not by Nagas, but by the Manipur Government and it should be solved by them with the Government of India (GoI). He accused the Armed Forces of Manipur of using force on a Naga ‘peace procession’, killing two students and injuring about 100 others, at Mao Gate in Senapati District on May 6: "The Naga people rallying for the right cause were just smashed out and hundreds of them were wounded. That is a big mistake."

Subsequent to the third round of negotiations, Muivah shifted to Pfutsero in Phek District in Nagaland on a ‘goodwill mission’, after camping at Viswema in Kohima District, bordering Manipur, for nearly a month. Sources indicate that the NSCN-IM leader has plans to enter Manipur from the Kohima-Jessami Road, and the Manipur Government has rushed additional State Forces to Ukhrul and Senapati Districts to prevent any such attempt.

Meanwhile, the NSCN-IM’s bete noire, the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K), under an extended cease-fire agreement with the Union Government since April 2001, has rejected the GoI’s negotiation process with the NSCN-IM as a ‘localized issue’ revolving around ‘an individual’s visit to his native village in Manipur’, and not representative of Naga aspirations. The NSCN-K has infact accused the Naga Hoho, the apex council of Naga tribes, of escalating tensions in Manipur. The Khapalng faction stated that the Hoho, once regarded as the epitome of Naga ingenuity, maturity and statesmanship, has suddenly turned into a group of ‘wanton boys throwing flaming balls into the neighbourhood in accordance to the script written by Muivah’.

Despite the fractious rhetoric, however, there has been a significant decline in factional clashes among warring Naga groups in recent years, at least in part due to the reconciliatory efforts of the Church-led Forum for Naga Reconciliation (FNR). According to the SATP database, internecine clashes escalated sharply through 2005-2008, but have registered a dramatic reduction thereafter.

Internecine Clashes in Nagaland: 2001-2010

Year
Clash
Killed
Injured
2001
4
13
2
2002
8
22
0
2003
6
14
0
2004
23
21
2
2005
14
28
6
2006
54
69
31
2007
56
82
29
2008
75
110
14
2009
11
9
6
2010*
1
1
0
*Data till June 13, 2010
Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP)

Nevertheless, the decline in Naga fratricidal clashes coincides with little evidence of compliance with the cease-fire ground rules, which stipulate that the militants stay in designated camps, ban their movement in uniform and with arms, and prohibit extortion. The Naga National Council (NNC), another armed group in Nagaland, for instance, recently alleged that around 30 to 40 armed NSCN-IM cadres had been roaming around in uniform ‘in combat gesture’ in the Khiamniungan region since May 28, 2010, adding that such ‘antagonistic’ action of the NSCN-IM was against the will of the Khiamniungan people, and would only invite armed conflict ‘once again’.

Significantly, the MHA has ordered the National Investigation Agency (NIA) to probe allegations by Central intelligence agencies that the NSCN-IM was rearming. The Intelligence Bureau (IB) has claimed that the outfit was procuring sophisticated weapons, arms and ammunition — mostly of Chinese origin — and getting clear support from a ‘neighbouring country’. An unnamed senior NIA official stated, in March 2010, "We have registered an FIR against some NSCN members and started the investigation. The IB report clearly points to the outfit’s nefarious designs to destabilise the Northeast. We are also probing the extent of their links with China."

In further and sustained violations of the Ground Rules, the NSCN-IM has been extorting huge sums of money from individuals and organisations involved in implementing development projects. The Naga group has, in fact, openly declared that, as per the decision of its ‘tatar hoho (parliament) budget session’, the ‘annual ration tax’ has been fixed at INR 200 per household for fiscal year 2010-2011. In a Press note issued on April 21, 2010, the NSCN-IM ‘chaplee (finance) affairs secretary’ Q. Awomi asked ‘all responsible’ to ‘cooperate’ with its ‘officials/staff’, who would be deputed for the purpose: "This rate of ration tax comes into force with immediate effect."

A spillover of the Naga insurgency also afflicts territories lying beyond the borders of Nagaland. The SATP Database indicates that at least 143 persons were killed in 181 NSCN-IM related incidents across the Northeast, outside Nagaland, through 2001-2010. While 114 insurgents were killed, civilian and Security Force fatalities were 17 and 9, respectively, during this period.

Fatalities involving NSCN-IM in Northeast out side Nagaland: 2001-2010

Year
Incidents
Civilians
Security Forces
Insurgents
Total
2001
7
4
0
5
9
2002
16
0
3
22
25
2003
19
0
0
6
6
2004
18
2
3
8
13
2005
21
0
0
17
17
2006
12
0
0
0
3
2007
38
6
3
25
34
2008
28
0
0
13
13
2009
13
5
0
16
21
2010*
9
0
0
2
2
* Data till June 13, 2010
Source: SATP

On July 28, 2009, Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram had also expressed concern in Parliament over the violation of cease-fire agreements by the NSCN-IM and NSCN-K elements active in the Tirap and Changlang Districts of Arunachal Pradesh noting that, "despite cease-fire arrangement with insurgent groups, violations do happen and we have taken a grave notice of this." Fratricidal violence between the Naga groups also carried over into Arunachal Pradesh, where the Assam-based United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and the Manipur-based United National Liberation Front (UNLF) had become party to area domination exercises by the NSCN groupings. ULFA and UNLF had reportedly aligned with the NSCN-K in its fight against the NSCN-IM, for competitive recruitment in the Naga populated regions of Arunachal Pradesh. The neighbouring State’s territory had also been used by the Naga groups for gun running across the India-Myanmar border. Similarly, the NSCN-IM’s increasing activities in Assam’s border Districts of North Cachar Hills, Karbi Anglong, Golaghat, Jorhat, Sibsagar and Tinsukia were confirmed by Assam’s Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, at Guwahati, on February 13, 2010.

The NSCN-IM’s belligerent intrusions into the Naga populated areas of the Manipur Hills continue, supported by the patronage the militant organization consistently receives from community groups and Government officials working in the region. In February 2009, an attempt by the NSCN-IM to establish a permanent camp at Siroy in Ukhrul District was foiled. After a two-week standoff, the insurgents, who had already set up the camp, were provided safe passage out of the State by Assam Rifles personnel, and the camp was dismantled. However, another three unauthorised camps – established prior to the 1997 cease-fire between the NSCN-IM and the Union Government in Nagaland – at Bonning (Senapati District), Ooklong (Tamenglong District) and Phungchong (Chandel District), continue to exist in Manipur. Amidst the current violent protest over Muivah’s proposed visit to Manipur, a suspected NSCN-IM cadre was killed when the bomb he was planting under a bridge along the stretch of the Imphal-Mao section of the National Highway-39 in Senapati District blew up on May 18, 2010.

The continued cease-fire violation in Nagaland coupled with expanding area domination exercise of the Naga armed groups across the Northeast leave little scope for negotiations in good faith for an end to the Naga insurrection. The charade of talks, however, can be expected to go on, even as each party to the conflict continues to seek to alter the distribution of power on the ground.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
June 7-13, 2010

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

 

Assam

1
0
0
1

Jammu and Kashmir

0
0
2
2

Manipur

0
0
3
3

Left-wing Extremism

 

Chhattisgarh

0
1
1
2

Jharkhand

1
0
10
11

Orissa

1
0
0
1

West Bengal

3
0
0
3

Total (INDIA)

6
1
16
23

NEPAL

1
0
1
2

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

6
0
0
6

FATA

3
8
129
140

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

4
0
3
7

Sindh

4
2
0
6

Total (PAKISTAN)

17
10
132
159
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH

JMB capable of launching major attacks: The Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), believed to have weakened in recent years, still has around 400 full-time cadres across the country and a military wing capable of launching major attacks. The Islamist outfit also has huge cache of explosives, handmade bombs and grenades stashed at different dens, according to state agencies. Daily Star, June 13, 2010.


INDIA

600-800 militants waiting to intrude, says Army: There is no let-up on Pakistan's part to send terrorists from across the border and 600 to 800 militants were waiting to infiltrate, said Northern Army Commander Lt. Gen. B S Jaswal. He, however, added that the Army had succeeded in keeping the infiltrators at bay by adopting a ‘three-pronged strategy’. "There is no let-up on the part of Pakistan in trying to send across terrorists. But if you see the statistics this year, they have not been able to make any inroads," he stated. He said, 70 militants had infiltrated by this time last year [2009] while this year [2010], only 12 could infiltrate as per the assessment. Explaining the Army's strategy to prevent infiltration, Jaswal said, "First strategy is to ensure no one comes in. Second is the intelligence base and the third is the defence line and the anti-infiltration position". Daily Excelsior, June 13, 2010.

'ISI guided LeT at every step for 26/11', reveals LeT operative David Headley: Pakistan-born American Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) operative David Headley has confirmed that LeT terrorists carried out the November 26, 2008 (also known as 26/11) Mumbai attacks under the "guidance" of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Headley, who was interrogated in the US by a team of Nation Investigation Agency (NIA) officials, has said that the ISI was engaged with the LeT commanders responsible for the 26/11 carnage at "each and every stage of the plot". Times of India, June 10, 2010.

13 militant outfits of Northeast figure in MHA’s list of banned organizations: 13 militant organizations from the North-eastern States of Assam, Manipur, Tripura and Meghalaya figure in the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) list of banned organizations. The United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), People's Liberation Army (PLA), United National Liberation Front (UNLF), People's Revolutionary party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP), Kanglei Yaol Kanna Lup (KYKL), Manipur People's Liberation Front (MPLF), Revolutionary People's Front (RPF), All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF), National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC) and Achik National Volunteer Council (ANVC) were the outfits in the list. Sentinel Assam, June 8, 2010.

CPI-Maoist groups to make inroads in Northeast, indicates report: Reports indicate that there are efforts by Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) groups to make inroads in the Northeast. The report adds that the Prashanta Bose alias Kishanda led Eastern Region Bureau of the CPI-Maoist had been entrusted with the task of establishing a foothold in the Northeast. Assam Tribune, June 8, 2010.

Ready to talk to anyone in Kashmir, says Prime Minister Manmohan Singh: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on June 7 said that his Government was ready to "carry forward" the dialogue process in Jammu and Kashmir and talk to anyone who abhorred violence and terrorism. Times of India, June 8, 2010.

No change in Kashmir policy, says US State Department spokesman P. J. Crowley: Asserting that there is "no change" in its Kashmir policy, the US State Department spokesman, P.J. Crowley, on June 9, said that India and Pakistan would make progress on resolving the "important issue". Earlier, on the same day, appearing at a state department Blog Forum, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, Robert Blake, said there is no change in America's policy on Kashmir. "No, there's no change right now," Blake said, in response to a question. "I think at this point the top priority for India and Pakistan is, first, to kind of get their own bilateral dialogues going in a more systematic way," he added. Times of India, June 9, 2010.

CPI-Maoist asks South Eastern Railway to contact for smooth train services: The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) leader of the West Bengal unit Akash said in statement released on June 10 that South Eastern Railway (SER) authorities should directly contact the Maoists to ensure the smooth running of trains in Maoist-affected areas. The Hindu, June 11, 2010.

Army will not fight Naxals, says Cabinet Committee on Security: The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) that met in New Delhi on June 10 has decided not to use the Army in a "combat role" in the ongoing anti-Naxal (Left Wing Extremist) battle. The Union Government and States will, instead, recruit ex-servicemen – including retired sappers for de-mining exercises – on contractual basis to fill the gap, and will focus on strengthening paramilitary and Police personnel through intensive training and recruitment programmes. Role of armed forces will only be limited to "training". Times of India, June 12, 2010.

ULFA ready for talks, says Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi: Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi on June 13 said a top leader of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) had formally conveyed to him that the outfit was ready to hold talks with the Government. He, however, declined to say whether the State Government had received a formal communiqué from the ULFA leader. The Hindu, June 14, 2010.


PAKISTAN

129 militants and eight Security Force personnel among 140 persons killed during the week in FATA: 10 Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants were killed and six others injured when fighter jets targeted their hideouts at Orakzai Agency in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), security sources said on June 12.

A series of US missiles attack killed 15 TTP militants in North Waziristan on June 11.

Three militants were killed when a US drone fired two missiles at a house in North Waziristan on June 10.

TTP militants attacked two security checkpoints in Mohmand Agency resulting in a gun battle that killed two soldiers and 40 militants on June 9. Separately, 14 militants were killed and three Security Forces (SF) personnel injured in clashes in various areas of Upper Orakzai Agency.

Six soldiers were killed and eight others injured when TTP militants stormed a checkpoint in Orakzai Agency on June 8. A retaliatory strike by the Army killed 35 militants and injured another 17.

The SFs killed at least 12 TTP militants and injured another 20 in Orakzai Agency on June 7. Dawn; Daily Times; The News, June 8-14, 2010.

Four million Pakistanis live under Taliban rule, says Amnesty International: Nearly four million people are living under Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) rule in Pakistan's northwest, suffering human rights abuses from the extremists as well as the military, Amnesty International (AI) said on June 10. According to the report titled "As If Hell Fell on Me", more than 1,300 civilians were killed in fighting between the Pakistani troops and the TTP in 2009 while more than one million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) are still in various towns. Daily Times, June 11, 2010.

ISI supporting Afghan Taliban as "official policy'': The Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), Pakistan's external intelligence agency, has been accused of supporting the Afghan Taliban as part of its "official policy'' which is said to include funding, training and providing sanctuary to militants. A report by the London School of Economics claimed that the level of Pakistan's support for the Taliban was "very extensive'' and on a much larger scale than was previously assumed. The report, said to be based on interviews with Taliban field commanders and corroborated by western security officials, said there was a "strong'' case that the "ISI orchestrates, sustains and shapes the overall insurgent campaign.'' The Hindu, June 14, 2010.

Taliban leadership has fled Pakistan and Afghanistan, claims Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi: Pakistan military's successful operations in tribal areas have forced many important Taliban leaders to flee outside Pakistan and Afghanistan, claimed Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, while addressing a joint Press Conference with his Afghanistan and Turkish counterparts on June 7. Daily Times, June 8, 2010.

North Waziristan next priority in the fight against the TTP, says Foreign Minister: Pakistan’s next priority in the fight against the Taliban (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, TTP) is North Waziristan, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said on June 9 in Istanbul in Turkey. He said the Army was moving toward an offensive in North Waziristan in a ‘calculated fashion’ after an earlier successful operation in South Waziristan. Daily Times, June 10, 2010.

No military operation on cards says, Balochistan Chief Minister: Balochistan Chief Minister Nawab Muhammad Aslam Raisani said on June 9 that no military operation was on the cards in the Province and that no operation could be justified, as the law and order here was comparatively better than other provinces. He categorically dispelled the impression that a military operation in Balochistan was being planned and said efforts were afoot to improve law and order in the Province. The News, June10, 2010.

Punjab won’t allow military operation in province, says Law Minister: The Punjab Government will strongly oppose any Rah-e-Nijat (path to salvation) style military operation against extremists in the Province, Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah said on June 10. He said search operations of law enforcement agencies were already underway in the area and therefore there was no need for a military operation. Daily Times, June 11, 2010.


SRI LANKA

LTTE re-emerging a year after their defeat, says Prime Minister D. M. Jayaratne: The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) cadres are re-emerging a year after their defeat despite launching no attacks, Prime Minister D.M. Jayaratne said on June 8. Jayaratne told Parliament that remnants of the LTTE were planning a comeback with financial backing from Tamils abroad.

Meanwhile, Sri Lanka's Government on June 8 proposed maintaining defence spending at nearly the same level as in the final year of its massive military offensive against the rebels. Figures presented to Parliament showed that the Government had allocated 201 billion rupees (1.8 billion dollars) on defence for 2010, down marginally from an estimated 210 billion spent in 2009. Economic Times, June 9, 2010.

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

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K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


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