Bihar: Maoist Surge,Sindh: Terror Unabated :: South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR),Vol. No. 9.24
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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 9, No. 24, Decemeber 20, 2010

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

 

INDIA
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Bihar: Maoist Surge
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

Unabated violence by the Communist Party of India – Maoist (CPI-Maoist) has somewhat dampened the sprit of a resurgent Bihar. While there has been significant improvement in the developmental, administrative and even the general security scenario under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, whose National Democratic Alliance (NDA) swept the polls, winning 206 seats in the 243-member Assembly, to secure a second term in November 2010, the lackadaisical approach in dealing with the Maoists is reflected in a rising graph of fatalities. Maoist related fatalities had dipped after 2005 (in which year they stood at 106), but have been rising continuously since 2007, to touch 96 in 2010 (all data for 2010 till December 19). Fatalities in 2010 included 52 civilians, 24 Security Force (SF) personnel, and 20 Maoists, according to data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP). In 2009, fatalities stood at 78, including 37 civilians, 25 SF personnel and 16 militants. Bihar currently ranks fourth among the States worst affected by the Maoist rebellion, after Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Orissa.

Significantly, 10 Maoists were killed by local criminals in an incident in the Hiranman diara (riverine area) in Munger District in the intervening night of November 29-30, 2010. This leaves just 10 Maoist fatalities in 2010 in direct confrontations with the Police, a clear index of the Government’s orientation. The total number of Maoist-related incidents, however, increased significantly – with 196 in 2010 as compared to 157 in 2009, and 114 in 2008.

Fatalities in Maoist Violence 2004-2010

Year
Civilians
SFs
Terrorists
Total
2004
24
6
3
33
2005
25
29
52
106
2006
16
5
19
40
2007
23
21
5
49
2008
35
21
15
71
2009
37
25
16
78
2010*
52
24
20
96
Total
212
131
130
473
Source: SATP
*Data till December 19, 2010

The major incidents (involving three or more fatalities) of Maoist-related violence in Bihar through 2010 included:

November 21: Eight persons, including five children, were killed and 11 others injured when a bomb planted by cadres of the CPI-Maoist exploded in Pachokhar village in Aurangabad District.

October 22: Five Police personnel were killed on the spot and another injured when CPI-Maoist cadres triggered a landmine blast at Jhitkahi Bridge under Shyampur Bhataha Police Station in Sheohar District.

August 29: At least six SF personnel were killed and seven others were injured in a gunfight with around 100 CPI-Maoist cadres in the Ghoghraghat Kanimoh forests in Lakhisarai District. The Maoists also looted 30 rifles from the SF personnel. Those killed included the Kavaiyah Police Outpost officer-in-charge, Bhulan Yadav.

May 21: Over 200 cadres of the CPI-Maoist laid a siege on Ramban village and killed five villagers in Sheohar District.

February 17: At least 12 villagers, including three women and one child, were killed when nearly 150 heavily-armed CPI-Maoist cadres attacked Phulwariya village in Jamui District.

While at least one incident was reported from each of 26 out of a total of 38 Districts in the State, fatalities were recorded in 12 Districts. Monghyr witnessed the highest of fatalities (18) followed by Jamui (17), Gaya (14), Aurangabad (13), Sheohar (11), Lakhisarai (8), Rohtas (4), Banka (3), East Champaran (3), Kaimur (2) and Patna (2). In 2009, at least one incident was reported from each of 23 Districts, and fatalities were registered in 12 Districts. Khagaria District had then accounted for the largest number of fatalities (16), followed by Rohtas (12) and Nawada (10), indicating shifting patterns of Maoist activity.

On March 8, 2010, the then Minister of Home Affairs, Brijendra Prasad Yadav, had disclosed in the State Assembly that, out of 40 Districts (including two Police Districts) in the State, 33 were Naxalite (Left Wing Extremist)-affected. Of these, 20 -- Gaya, Aurangabad, Rohtas, Jamui, Munger, Kaimur, Bhojpur, Nawada, Jehanabad, Arwal, Motihari, Patna, Sitamarhi, Bagaha, Bettiah, Banka, Sheohar, Lakhisarai, Vaishali and Begusarai – fell under the ‘A’ category of highly affected Districts; five -- Buxar, Khagaria, Muzaffarpur, Saharsa and Nalanda – fell in the ‘B’ category of moderately affected Districts; and eight – Siwan, Saran, Samastipur, Katihar, Purnea, Bhagalpur, Sheikhpura and Darbhanga – were in the marginally affected ‘C’ category.

Worryingly, the number of Maoist attacks involving more than 50 cadres and militia stood at 32, the same as in 2009. Only one such incident had been recorded in 2005 and 2006, but there was a steep increase in 2007 and 2008, with 13 and 16 incidents, respectively. The increase in such incidents is an index of growing Maoist strength. The worst of these attacks in 2010 was the February 17 incident at Phulwariya village in Jamui District.

The Bihar Police continues to attempt to underplay the rise in Maoist violence. The latest State Crime Record Bureau report released on March 15, 2010, emphasised a longer-term decline in fatalities, arguing that the number of people killed in Maoist violence in Bihar in 2006-09 was much lower than in earlier years. Thus, while 160 civilians were killed in Maoist violence between 2006 and 2009, the number stood at 668 civilians between 2001 and 2004. Director General of Police (DGP) Neelmani asserted that the decline in civilian casualties was one of several parameters demonstrating that Maoist violence in the State was on the decline.

The Maoists have engaged in widespread acts of economic subversion targeting State, public and private properties. 24 incidents of setting properties on fire and 31 incidents of blasting properties with explosives were recorded in 2010. Meanwhile, Maoist-sponsored bandhs (general strikes) have become a regular feature, with as many as 19 bandhs called in the State in the first six months of 2010 alone, according to a July 1 report. These exclude the 48-hour bandh called from June 29-midnight against "anti-people policies of the Central government". According to figures compiled by the Bihar Police, the State during the past six months (from January 1, 2010) saw bandhs called by the Maoists on 38 days, inflicting an estimated loss of INR 7.4 billion just to the Railways and the State Government, each of which lost about INR 3.7 billion.

Demonstrating their strong presence in the State, the Maoist spokesperson for Bihar and Jharkhand, Samar Singh, stated, on August 25, 2010, State Legislative Assembly Speaker Udai Narayan Chowdhary had been ‘banned’ from entering his Assembly constituency Imamganj in the Gaya District. The Maoists had also put the ruling Janata Dal-United (JD-U) Member of Parliament (MP) from Aurangabad, Sushil Kumar Singh, on their hit-list and threatened to eliminate him.

The SFs, meanwhile, have made, at best, modest efforts to halt the Maoists progress. In their ‘major success’ in 2010, on February 13, three CPI-Maoist cadres and a Police officer were killed in an encounter at Manjhiawan village under the Konch Police Station in Gaya District. The SFs also recovered large caches of arms, ammunition and other resources from the Maoists from different places through the year. In one such incident on November 10, acting on disclosures by arrested Maoists Umesh alias Radheshyam Yadav and Laldas Mochi alias Mukesh, the Police seized INR 165,000, six cell phones, three carbines, five remote control triggers, 5,420 cartridges of different makes, including AK-47 ammunition, 25,000 detonators, fuse wire, Police uniforms, communication sets, timer circuit devices, landmine batteries, various landmines and a tonne of explosive powder, among other materials. On December 12, 2010, the Police seized 2,500 kilograms of explosives from two places in Aurangabad District and arrested four persons in this connection.

During the year, the Police also arrested at least 176 Maoists, including four ‘zonal commanders’, two ‘sub zonal commanders’ and four ‘area commanders’. 121 Maoists, including two ‘zonal commanders’ and seven ‘area commanders’, had been arrested in 2009.

On August 26, 2010, Additional DGP (Headquarters) P.K. Thakur had claimed that several top cadres of the CPI-Maoist had either been killed or arrested during 30 encounters with the Police in the State, till July 2010. Thakur disclosed that, in all, 174 Naxalites had been arrested in 2010 till end-July. Apart from bombs, explosives, arms and ammunition, the Police also seized foreign currencies of Iran, Japan, Bangladesh and Nepal in ‘huge quantities’ from both Maoists and criminals. In 2008 and 2009, he disclosed, the Police engaged Maoists and criminals in encounters on 46 and 40 occasions, respectively.

These limited successes have been secured by a severely depleted Police Force. According to National Crime Records Bureau data (as on December 31, 2008), Bihar had a dismal 64 Policemen per 100,000 population, the lowest in the country, just half of the severely inadequate Indian average of 128 per 100,000. Four Battalions of Central Paramilitary Forces (CPMF) are also currently deployed in the State, yielding barely 1,600 CPMF personnel in actual field deployments, minuscule numbers for a State as large and as problematic as Bihar. The State currently has just 700 officers and personnel deputed to the Special Task Force (STF), the Bihar Police unit dedicated to carrying out operations against the Maoists and hardcore criminals operating in Bihar.

There has, however, been some emphasis on recruitment to, and modernization of, the Police. Bihar and Union Governments initiatives in 2010 in this direction include:

January 7: Bihar Government sent 428 Police Personnel, from Constables to Deputy Superintendents of Police, to different Central Police organisations for specialised training in jungle warfare, weapons training, and counter-insurgency commando operations.

March 5: The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) decided to send an additional two battalions of CPMF personnel, trained in jungle warfare, to Bihar and Jharkhand, to help the Police counter the LWE violence.

March 17: The Bihar Government raised the cash rewards for those providing information leading to the arrest of CPI-Maoist leaders, ranging between INR 50,000 to INR 300,000 for ‘area commanders’. Earlier, the range was between INR 20,000 and INR 100,000.

March 29: DGP Neelmani disclosed that the Bihar Government would raise the insurance cover of Policemen and Home Guard personnel posted in 15 Maoist-affected Districts from INR 1,200,000 now to INR 1,375,000.

June 16: The Bihar Government cleared a INR 92.4 crore Police modernisation plan for the current fiscal. The plan envisaged an expenditure of INR 30 crore on every Police Station located in Maoist-affected Districts. The money would be spent on fortification, construction of buildings and other infrastructure. The purchase of over 1,000 bullet-proof jackets was also approved. The Government also decided to recruit 952 wireless operators. Wireless sets and vehicles had been provided to all Police Stations.

July 17: The DGP disclosed that the Centre had included an additional five extremist-hit Districts of Bihar in the list of Districts to be covered by the Union Home Ministry's Security-related Expenditure (SRE) scheme. Under the scheme, all the security-related expenses are reimbursed by the Centre. The scheme earlier covered the 15 Districts in the State. The newly-included Districts were Lakhisarai, Banka, Sheohar, Vaishali and Begusarai.

August 4: The State Government approved the creation of the post of Additional Superintendent of Police (ASP), Operations, in eight Maoist affected Districts. In 2009, the post of ASP Operations had been created in another eight Districts.

August 9: The State Government allotted INR 11.2 million to each of the 38 Districts of the State as advance money for the Police Stations for their self-sufficiency and contingent expenditure. DGP Neelmani stated, "All the 872 Police Stations in the State, including around 300 which fall under the Naxal-belt, have been allotted money to meet their contingency expenditure..."

December 12: The Bihar Government decided to recruit 50,000 Police Officers over five years. As many as 5,000 Sub-Inspectors and 45,000 Constables would be appointed over this period, in a phased recruitment. The decision was taken at a high-level meeting of top officials chaired by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar in the night of December 12. The State Government would appoint 9,000 Constables and 1,000 Sub-Inspectors annually over the following five years.

Despite the apparent magnitude of these initiatives, these would remain far from securing the critical mass of capacities necessary to deal with the Maoist threat in the State. The efficiency of implementation still remains to be seen. Worse, both operations and SF morale continue to be undermined by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s continuous reiteration that the Maoists cannot be countered by force, and that all-round development and welfare measures alone can bring the Maoists back to the mainstream. The State Government has remained unwilling to join the Centre’s ‘coordinated’ operations in the worst affected States. On September 9, 2010, the Chief Minister again stated that only long-term development could deter the poor and tribal people from the "lure of the ultra-left insurgency". His own State Police Chief, Neelmani, however, has articulated a radically different position, declaring, on March 22, that he was "very much in favour of supporting" the Centre’s Operations. He added, further, that "unnecessary confusion was created on the State’s ambivalence or even opposition" to the Centre’s move. "We had in fact started raising our own anti-Naxal force on the lines of Andhra Pradesh’s STF (Special Task Force) in the absence of the Centre meeting demands for additional Forces."

Nitish Kumar has distinguished himself by turning Bihar around from the brink of administrative collapse in just five years. His ambivalence and confusion with regard to the Maoists, however, has prevented comparable successes from accumulating with regard to the challenge the rebels have thrown at the state. If the Chief Minister is to consolidate the developmental and administrative gains of his first tenure, he will have to bring widening areas of Maoist dominance, where governance is non-existent, within the ambit of effective service delivery. This can only happen after these areas are freed of the Maoist threat. A failure to secure this outcome could easily jeopardise all that has been achieved in Bihar in recent years.

PAKISTAN
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Sindh: Terror Unabated
Ambreen Agha
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

Sindh, Pakistan’s Southern Province, witnessed spiralling violence throughout 2010, as did the rest of the country, with the number of terrorist attacks resulting in fatalities rising from 19 in 2009 to at least 62 in 2010 (all data till December 19, 2010). Significantly, after one of its worst incidents last year, the suicide bombing that killed 43 people in Karachi, the provincial and economic capital of the terror-ridden nation, on December 28, 2009, Asmatullah Shaheen, a Tehreek-Taliban-Pakistan (TTP) ‘commander’, had threatened more attacks on "the US ally, declaring, "My group claims responsibility for the Karachi attack and we will carry out more such attacks within 10 days."

Though the outfit just missed its declared deadline, an explosion was engineered on January 8, 2010, killing six persons in a house near the Babri mosque in Karachi’s Baldia Town locality. This was only the beginning of an unrelenting succession of terrorist strikes through the year. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, at least 162 persons were killed, including 111 civilians, 26 Security Force (SF) personnel and 25 militants, in as many as 62 incidents through 2010. [This data excludes ‘Targeted Killings’, which many believe are carried out by the terrorists, backed by warring political parties, and that are rampant in Sindh]. In 2009, total terrorism related fatalities stood at 66, including 49 civilians, 14 militants and three SFS, in 19 incidents.

Fatalities in Sindh: 2005- 2010

Year
Incidents of Killing
Civilians
SFs
Militants
Total
2005
1
1
0
0
1
2006
7
61
11
3
75
2007
5
186
0
2
188
2008
14
30
13
10
53
2009
19
49
3
14
66
2010*
62
111
26
25
162
Source: SATP Database
*Data: Till December 19, 2010

With total killings in terrorist incidents rising nearly two-and-a-half fold between 2009 and 2010, SF fatalities rose eight-fold. The number of civilians killed went up from 49 to 111, and of terrorists, from 14 to 25. Only two major incidents (involving three or more fatalities) had occurred in 2009, but their number increased to seven in 2010. The worst of these included:

November 11, 2010: At least 20 persons, including Frontier Corps officials and Policemen, were killed, and over were 100 injured, when an explosive-laden truck blew up inside the head office of the Crime Investigation Department (CID), which is located inside Karachi’s main ‘red zone’.

October 7, 2010: 10 persons, including two children, were killed and another more than 65 sustained injuries, when two suicide bombers blew themselves up at the shrine of Abdullah Shah Ghazi in the Clifton area of Karachi. The suicide bombers were reported to be teenage boys.

June 28, 2010: Five persons, including two members each from the Shia and Barelvi sects, were shot dead in different areas of Karachi City in the ongoing spree of sectarian killings.

February 5, 2010: At least 33 persons were killed and at least another 100, including women and children, were wounded in twin blasts in Karachi as the city marked Hazrat Imam Hussain's Chehlum (40th Day after death) ceremony. The first explosion occurred at around 3:03 pm (PST) in the Shahrah-e-Faisal area of Karachi, targeting a bus taking 30 to 40 mourners to the city's main Chehlum procession at Nishtar Park. The second explosion took place at about 4:55 pm at the Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre, where those injured or killed in the first explosion were being taken, amid a crowd of the victims' relatives and the media.

A total of 133 incidents related to terrorism [including incidents of arrest, surrender, threat, explosion, killing, etc.] occurred in 2010 in Karachi as compared to 45 in 2009. SAIR had earlier (Volume 8.51), noted that Karachi had come to provide an entire infrastructure for terrorist organisations to flourish. The TTP, Afghan Taliban and al Qaeda, facing some pressure in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP, formerly known as North West Frontier Province, NWFP) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), continued to pour into the port city, further damaging an already dwindling Pakistani economy. The city had already become a safe haven for Islamist terrorists, and was evolving as a significant theatre of violence.

Unsurprisingly, Sindh Home Minister Zulfiqar Mirza, on December 14, 2010, rued, "The situation in Karachi will worsen and a large number of Urdu-speaking people will lose their lives if these ethnic groups [Baloch, Pakhtun, Sindhis and Punjabis] come forward and make an alliance."

Meanwhile, sectarian violence has become the order of the day in Sindh. While only eight sectarian attacks took place in 2009, killing 36 persons and injuring another 69, there were 24 such incidents in 2010, with the number of persons killed and injured rising to 39 and 96, respectively. Though the fatalities remained almost the same, the increase in number of such attacks is of great concern.

The most disturbing development to engulf the Province in general and Karachi in particular, is the phenomenon of targeted killings, the outcome of political manoeuvrings, religious differences and ethnic hostilities. In the worst of such incidents in 2010, at least 73 persons were killed in four consecutive days of violence which began after Awami National Party (ANP) Sindh President Shahi Syed declared, on October 16, that his party was boycotting the by-polls in Orangi Town. [The by-poll was held on October 17 and the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) emerged the winner.] Such incidents remain unchecked in the Province.

A report published in Dawn on August 30 indicated that as many as 249 people had been the victim of targeted killings between January 1 and August 6, 2010, just in Karachi. People from a wide cross section of society have been targeted for their political affiliations, sectarian beliefs or for the language they speak. In addition, 11 Policemen were also killed by unidentified assailants.

A June 6, 2010, report had earlier noted that as many as 256 people, including workers of the MQM, the MQM (Haqiqi), the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the ANP, were victims of ‘Target Killings’ in Karachi over the preceding six months. The report claimed that most of the murders were ‘political’, and included 69 members of the MQM, 60 to the MQM (Haqiqi), 28 of PPP, 23 of ANP and other political parties, and 41 people identified by religious (sectarian) grouping. According to Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) data, a total of 711 people had been killed in ‘Target Killings’ in Karachi in the first 11 months of 2010. HRCP’s 2009 report had recorded 291 ‘Target Killings’ in Karachi.

Government agencies have largely remained paralysed and numbed by this onslaught. The SFs had arrested just 124 militants belonging to the TTP, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) and Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), in 2009. That number rose slightly to 144 in 2010.

Unsurprisingly, Sindh continues to experience ever-increasing violence because of the mushrooming of terrorist outfits that appear and capriciously disappear, deepening the future possibility of a weakened society and a failed polity.

The extreme violence in Sindh, and particularly in Karachi, is a demonstration of the entrenched character of the national bourgeoisie and the political elite, who have long engaged in reactionary national-ethnic and religious political and militant mobilisation, collapsing the structure of society and of the state. There is little evidence of the emergence of any progressive forces with the capacity to reverse these trends and stabilise Pakistan’s failing system.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
December13-19, 2010

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

  

Left-wing Extremism

0
0
1
1

INDIA

  

Uttar Pradesh

1
0
0
1

Left-wing Extremism

  

Andhra Pradesh

0
0
5
5

Bihar

0
1
0
1

Jharkhand

3
0
1
4

Odisha

0
1
2
3

West Bengal

7
0
0
7

Total (INDIA)

11
2
8
21

PAKISTAN

  

Balochistan

12
0
0
12

FATA

5
3
77
85

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

11
2
0
13

Sindh

0
1
1
2

Total (PAKISTAN)

28
6
78
112
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH


‘This Government to finish war crimes trial’, says Law Minister Shafique Ahmed: Law Minister Shafique Ahmed on December 15 said that the trial of war criminals will be finished off within the tenure of this Government. "We are trying the war crimes trial lives up to the international standards and none can raise any question about it," he told reporters. The Daily Star, December 16, 2010.


INDIA


Top Indian politicians may be on LTTE hit list: Referring to intelligence inputs it was reported that the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) is planning to launch spectacular strikes on high-profile targets like Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi. According to sources, LTTE cadres, who survived the Sri Lankan civil war in 2009, are trying to regroup in India and planning attacks on top political leaders, especially during their travels in Tamil Nadu. Times of India, December 16, 2010.

Indian embassy in Kabul faces Taliban threat: Government sources in Afghanistan said on December 16 that the Indian embassy in Kabul and four consulates in Afghanistan have been put on high alert following intelligence inputs that the (Afghan) Taliban militants may be preparing for a strike at Indian establishments. According to the inputs forwarded, explosives-laden vehicles and suicide bombers could be used in attacks. The Hindu, December 17, 2010.

Osama bin Laden promised to 'divert' USD 20 million to Kashmiri jihadis, reveals WikiLeaks: Al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden had promised jihadis fighting in Kashmir that they will not "run short of funds" and was willing to ‘divert’ USD 20 million to support Kashmir-oriented militancy, Indian officials were quoted as telling US diplomats. In a cable dated May 24, 2006 containing the details of a Joint Working Group meeting in Washington published by WikiLeaks, joint secretary (cabinet secretariat) Sharad Kumar stated that Indian intelligence has transcripts of pre-9/11 meetings between Laden and Taliban leader Mullah Omar during which terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir was discussed. According to the Website, US embassy cables of May, 2006 said, "India is now an al-Qaeda target." DNA India; Times of India, December 18-20, 2010.

Masrat Alam admits taking INR 4 million to fuel protests in Kashmir Valley: Masrat Alam, chief of Muslim League, a constituent of the All Party Hurriyat Conference-Geelani (APHC-G), who led Kashmir unrest from June to September by issuing regular protest calendars, has so far confessed having received INR 4 million from APHC-G chairman Syed Ali Shah Geelani through different channels to fuel the protests and incite stone pelters. Masrat, arrested in Srinagar on October 14, admitted this during his sustained interrogation by Police. Daily Excelsior, December 15, 2010.

Border region of Jammu and Kashmir against azadi and division, say interlocutors: The people of border region of Rajouri-Poonch are against the demand for azadi (freedom) and division of Jammu and Kashmir, the Centre-appointed interlocutors for the State said on December 19. "The aspirations of people here in this belt are totally different from that of Kashmir. They are against azadi and division of Jammu and Kashmir. We will raise their demands and suggestions before the Government of India (GoI)," chief interlocutor Dileep Padgaonkar told reporters in Rajouri. Times of India, December 20, 2010.

India maintained that Pakistani army paid wages to LeT, reveals WikiLeaks: During a meeting between Richard Boucher, US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, and then Union Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon, on January 8, 2009, the latter alleged that the Pakistani Army was hand-in-glove with the militant outfit Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT). Menon highlighted that the Pakistan Army paid wages to LeT and sustained the organization. Times of India, December 18, 2010.

CBI identifies mastermind behind Hyderabad, Ajmer and Malegaon blasts: The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) said on December 13 that the arrested religious leader Naba Kumar Sircar alias Swamy Aseemanand was the mastermind behind the bomb blasts in Mecca Masjid (May 18, 2007 in Hyderabad in Andhra Pradesh), Ajmer (October 11, 2007 in Rajasthan) and Malegaon (September 29, 2008 in Maharashtra). Swamy Aseemanand was arrested from Haridwar in Uttaranchal on November 20. Times of India, December 14, 2010.

Maoists on a major recruitment drive, says report: The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) has decided to go in for a massive recruitment drive to take on the paramilitary forces in the near future. In a bid to recruit youth for its Peoples Liberation of Guerrilla Army (PLGA), the Maoists issued a public statement urging the youth of the country, especially in the Maoist-affected States, to join its ranks in big number. The outfit claimed that it is in the process of launching a guerrilla war against the State of India. Times of India, December 16, 2010.

Peace will return to Northeast by 2020, says Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram: Stating that most of the insurgent groups in the northeast have entered into a dialogue with the Centre, Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram on December 14 exuded confidence that peace and reconciliation would be ushered in the region in a decade. "Most leaders of the underground groups are coming forward for talks, while others are in prison. With such developments, there's bound to be peace and reconciliation in the region by 2020," the Home Minister said, adding that the Centre is giving full honour and respect to the leaders.

Meanwhile, the Meghalaya Government on December 15 invited the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) for talks to "facilitate their surrender". Chief Minister Mukul Sangma said that the Government is willing to talk with the GNLA, with a singular objective of convincing the "bunch of criminals" to surrender. "We want to facilitate a system where we can ask the GNLA cadres to surrender and ensure that they come over ground," Sangma said. Assam Tribune; Times of India, December 15-16, 2010.


PAKISTAN

77 militants and five civilians among 85 persons killed during the week in FATA: Three US drone attacks killed 54 persons, most of them alleged militants, in Khyber Agency of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) close to the Afghan border on December 17.

At least seven Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants were killed in a US drone attack in Speen Drang area of Tirah valley in Khyber Agency on December 16.

At least 12 militants were killed and six others injured when Security Forces (SFs) backed by helicopter gunships pounded their hideouts in Kasha, Shakar Tangi, Saifal Darra and Mamozai areas of Orakzai Agency on December 15. In addition, three children were killed when a mortar shell landed on the house of one Gul Hamid in Malikdinkhel area of Bara in Khyber Agency.

Four Haqqani Network militants of Afghan nationality were killed when two missiles fired by a US drone hit a car in Tall area of North Waziristan Agency on December 14. Dawn; Daily Times; The News, December 14-20, 2009.

Al Qaeda recruiting "white jihadis" for Mumbai-style attacks: The reported deaths of two British militants in a drone attack in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (December 10) have raised fears that western Muslim converts are being targeted by al Qaeda in its search for "white jihadis" to mount November 26, 2008 Mumbai (also known as 26/11)-style terrorist attacks in Europe, according to Sunday Times. The newspaper quoted western intelligence agencies as saying that Ilyas Kashmiri, recently named as al Qaeda's chief military strategist in Pakistan and Afghanistan and dubbed the "new Bin Laden," had been "assigned to bring western recruits" into the organisation. The 46-year-old "one-eyed terrorist," reportedly described by one Pakistani Army officer as the "most dangerous man for Pakistan, Europe and the United States," was said to be "plotting" attacks in Britain and other European countries, including France and Germany." The Hindu, December 20, 2010.

Pakistani national behind worldwide al Qaeda terror plot: A Pakistani national planned to bomb Manchester city centre in northern England as part of a wider al Qaeda plot to carry out attacks in Britain, the United States and Norway, a London court was told on December 15. Abid Naseer (24), who was arrested in a British anti-terrorism operation on July 7, 2009 but never charged, faces extradition to the United States on allegations he provided material support to al Qaeda and conspiring to use a destructive device. Daily Times, December 16, 2010.

JuD ‘chief’ Hafiz Saeed shares stage with leading Pakistani politicians in Islamabad : The Jama’at-ud-Da’awa (JuD) ‘chief’ and November 26, 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks (also known as 26/11) mastermind Hafiz Saeed made his first public appearance since his release in 2009, on December 16 in the national capital, Islamabad, in the company of leading Pakistani politicians, and stoutly opposed Pakistani Government's move to repeal the country's controversial blasphemy law. Those present on the stage include former caretaker Prime Minister Shujaat Hussain and former Federal Minister Ijaz-ul-Haq. Times of India, December 17, 2010.

Pakistan trying to solve political issues in guise of terrorism, accuses German Chancellor Angela Merkel: German Chancellor Angela Merkel on December 11 accused Pakistan of trying to solve political issues in the guise of terrorism, and stated that Pakistan will have to change its policies. In a joint press conference with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at Brussels on December 10, Merkel said that it would be made clear to Pakistan that terror was not a means to an end when it came to solving political problems. Daily Times, December 13, 2010.

Pakistan not willing to destroy terrorist’s havens, reveals US intelligence assessment: The new United States intelligence reports paint a bleak picture of the security conditions in Afghanistan and say the war cannot be won unless Pakistan roots out terrorists on its side of the border, according to several US officials who have been briefed on the findings on December 11. The report on Pakistan concludes that the Pakistani Government and military "are not willing to do that," says one US official briefed on the analysis. The reports, known as National Intelligence Estimates, are prepared by the Director of National Intelligence and used by policymakers as senior as the President to understand trends in a region. Daily Times, December 13, 2010.

67% people want military operation in North Waziristan Agency, reveals poll: Military will find increased support from the people in case it goes for an operation against the Haqqani network in North Waziristan, a recent opinion poll by Community Appraisal and motivation Programme revealed on December 16. "Support for military operations against militants increased dramatically over the last year. In 2009, only 16.8 percent respondents supported the army/Security Forces operation in Swat [Khyber Pakhtunkhwa] but this year 66.8 percent of the respondents supported the operation," the opinion poll – Understanding Federally Administered Tribal Areas - revealed.

Meanwhile,US Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen on December 14 said that Pakistan would have to launch an operation against terrorists in North Waziristan Agency, adding that the Pakistan Government would decide the time of the operation itself. Daily Times, December 15-17, 2010.



The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

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Dr. Ajai Sahni


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