Terror in Allah's Name:Assam: A Divided Peace::South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR), Vol. No. 9.45
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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 9, No. 45, May 16, 2011

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT
 


PAKISTAN
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Terror in Allah's Name
Ambreen Agha
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

"I heard someone shouting ‘Allah-o-Akbar’ and then I heard a huge blast," Ahmad Ali, a wounded Frontier Constabulary (FC) trooper reported, after two suicide bombers attacked FC trainees on May 13, 2011, in the Shabqadar tehsil (revenue unit) of Charsadda District, 19 miles from Peshawar, the capital city of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Province, killing 73 FC personnel and 17 civilians, and injuring another 140. 

Soon after, claiming responsibility for the attack, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan declared, "This was the first revenge for Osama's martyrdom. Wait for bigger attacks in Pakistan and Afghanistan." Significantly, confirming the death of Osama bin Laden on May 2, 2011, the TTP spokesman had threatened to attack Security Forces (SFs). “Pakistan will be the prime target followed by United States (US). The US had been on a man-hunt for Osama and now Pakistani rulers are on our hit-list as we also killed Benazir Bhutto in a suicide attack", the spokesman added in an audio message. 

The bin Laden killing, however, is more a platform than cause or provocation. The TTP has been executing a relentless stream of attacks against Pakistani SFs from the moment of its formation in the wake of the Army’s Lal Masjid [Red Mosque] operation in 2007, after which suicide bombings targeting the SFs increased dramatically. An Interior Ministry report published on September 17, 2007, conceded that the Lal Masjid military operation had caused an increase in suicide attacks on Army and paramilitary forces. The report also revealed that the SFs were mostly targeted in KP and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).  Significantly, the Lal Masjid radicals, prior to their declaration of a parallel judicial system to enforce Islamic laws in Islamabad, were trained and supported by the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) to fuel  the insurgency in Kashmir, a fact confirmed by Shuja Nawaz, author of Crossed Swords: Pakistan, its Army and the Wars Within

Moreover, the Charsadda District, which borders Pakistan’s volatile Mohmand tribal Agency in the FATA, has long been the location of a major Army onslaught against the TTP. Further, Pakistan’s alliance with the US and its, albeit ambivalent, ‘cooperation’ with the US ‘war on terror’ has further escalated TTP violence against Islamabad and the SFs. 

Conspicuously, on April 3, 2011, TTP spokesman Ehsan had reiterated, immediately after the Sakhi Sarwar shrine attack that killed 41 people and injured more than 100, “Our men carried out these attacks and we will carry out more in retaliation for Government operations against our people in the northwest." Four days before Operation Geronimo killed Osama, the TTP killed nine persons and injured another 64 in two separate attacks at Naval establishments on April 26 and April 28. Claiming responsibility for these attacks, the TTP spokesman had declared, "Security Forces (SFs) will be targeted in the future as well, because they are killing their own people in Waziristan and elsewhere on the behest of the US. Our organisation is still strong in cities of Pakistan".

Fatalities in Direct Attacks on Pakistan Armed Forces: 2001-2011

Years
No. of Incidents
Killed
Injured
2001
1
2
25
2002
0
0
0
2003
0
0
0
2004
14
33
38
2005
9
3
17
2006
42
128
190
2007
77
304
427
2008
59
214
252
2009
80
327
952
2010
98
149
365
2011*
43
162
316
Total
423
1322
2582
Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal [*Data till May 15, 2011]

Between 2001 and May 15, 2011, 423 incidents in which the Armed Forces were directly targeted, have been recorded, accounting for at least 1,322 SF personnel killed, and another 2,582 injured. This data includes the fatalities that occurred as a result of direct attacks either on a military camp, a Police check post or a SF convoy. Overall fatalities among the SFs, including a range of other terrorist incidents in which the SFs were not the primary target, stood at 3,631 over the same period.  

Even more troubling is the fact that, despite the mounting SF fatalities in terrorist attacks across the country, there appears to be a substantial extremist infiltration into the military, and vice versa. Covert state support has hardened and strengthened extremist elements over the years. Immediately after the May 13 suicide attack, an unnamed Police official was reported to concede, “Certainly, the militants have an effective networking and some insiders may be leaking information to them.”  

More obviously, there is clear collusion between a range of Islamist terrorist formations and the Army and intelligence establishment in Pakistan, even as the SFs struggle to contain ‘renegade’ groups that have escaped or rebelled against military-intelligence control. The Osama killing itself, within the garrison town of Abbottabad and in close proximity to major military establishments, fairly clearly established the link between state security structures and the terrorist forces. Pakistan’s Army and military intelligence apparatus has evident links with terrorist networks within the country. It is, indeed, the extremist-terrorist spaces created for state supported groups that allow the anti-state groups to flourish as well, since all these are mobilized on a pan-Islamist ideology of jihad that makes clear distinctions between cadres of different groups impossible. 

Crucially, it is continuing state support to Afghanistan and India directed terrorist groupings that provides the context for domestic terrorism of the TTP variety. Indeed, Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, has repeatedly accused the ISI of having ties with the Afghan Taliban in the Northwest tribal belt, specifying, further, the links between the Pakistani military intelligence and the Haqqani network, an al Qaeda allied outfit run by Sirajuddin Haqqani and based in the North Waziristan District of FATA. These links have further been confirmed by statements of Pakistani detainees held at Guantanamo Bay, disclosed by WikiLeaks. According to the testimony of one such detainee, Ziaul Shah, his direct supervisor in the Afghan Taliban was a man named Qari Saleem Ahmed, the ‘commander’ of the Punjab Chapter of Taliban, who was reportedly arrested around 1999 for being a member of the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM), Harkatul Jihad al Islami (HuJI) and Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) with “connections to subversive elements of the ISI”. In another revelation, on April 12, 2011, Pakistani-American terrorist David Coleman Headley alias Daood Gilani and Pakistani-Canadian terrorist Tahawwur Hussain Rana, who allegedly planned and aided the attacks in Mumbai (November 26, 2008, also known as 26/11), implicated the Pakistani Government and the ISI in the attack.  

In its second charge sheet in the 26/11 attacks, the US Government has named a serving ISI officer, Major Iqbal, as a key conspirator charged with providing funds to Headley. Major Iqbal, posted in Lahore during 2007 and 2008, was handling David Coleman Headley on behalf of the ISI. He provided USD 25,000 and fake Indian currency notes to Headley, to meet the latter’s expenses during surveillance operations in India. Headley provided all his surveillance videos first to Major Iqbal and then to the LeT. 

Such revelations only add to Pakistan’s culture of impunity, with terrorists often going scot-free. The SFs have, of course, launched widespread campaigns against the TTP and some other renegade terrorist factions, including indiscriminate bombing and artillery barrages targeting civilian clusters across KP and FATA. Indeed, Chief of Army Staff (CoAS), General Ashfaq Kayani, in his address at Kakul, the Military Academy at Abbottabad on April 23, 2011, had boasted, “The Army has broken the back of militants linked to al Qaeda and TTP and the nation will soon prevail over this menace.”  The data on fatalities however, does not indicate any dramatic diminution in the capabilities of anti-Islamabad formations such as the TTP, even as state supported groupings such as the Taliban and the LeT, among others, continue to flourish with visible state support. Despite the rising instability within, and the escalating international pressure on Islamabad, it is evident that the terrorist state, operating in the name of Allah, and its many terrorist proxies and renegades, remain alive and vibrant within Pakistan.

INDIA
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Assam: A Divided Peace
Veronica Khangchian
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Even if the talks fail, ULFA leaders will never return to jungle life
Hiren Gohain, convenor of Sanmilita Jatiya Abhivartan (SJA)

Do not ever pick up guns. You should never take the path we had adopted.
Pro-Talks ULFA 'chairman' Arabinda Rajkhowa, February 11, 2011

Internal divisions in the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) are emerging as a major obstacle in the peace process in Assam. While ‘chairman’ Arabinda Rajkhowa’s Pro-Talks Faction (ULFA-PTF) has entered into formal talks for the first time in ULFA's 31-year-old history, ‘commander-in-chief’ Paresh Baruah’s Anti-Talks Faction (ULFA-ATF) is vehemently opposing negotiations with the Government.

Central Government efforts for talks with ULFA began on December 7, 2004, when ULFA was invited for unconditional talks to end the insurgency in the State, with a letter from the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) handed over to mediator, Indira Goswami. Within three days, on December 9, 2004, however, ULFA rejected the PMO’s invitation for talks, with ULFA’s ‘commander-in-chief’, Baruah declaring that the PM’s letter was ‘self-contradictory and confusing’. On December 10, 2004, the ULFA Pariyal Committee, an organization of family members of ULFA cadres, criticised the group’s rejection of the peace offer by the PMO, stating, "By rejecting the offer, Baruah has closed all avenues of progress for the State." A succession of subsequent peace initiatives also failed to yield results.

However, after decades of Bangladeshi support to insurgent groups active in India’s northeast, the Sheikh Hasina led Government changed Dhaka’s policy and arrested ULFA ‘chairman’, Arabinda Rajkhowa, and ‘deputy commander-in-chief’ Raju Baruah, along with the ‘chairman’s’ bodyguard, Raju Bora, in the country’s capital, on December 2, 2009. Earlier, Bangladesh’s security agencies had arrested ULFA’s ‘foreign secretary’ Sashadhar Choudhury and ‘finance secretary’ Chitraban Hazarika from a house in Dhaka’s up-market Uttara locality on November 1, 2009. The ULFA leaders were handed over to Indian authorities without fuss, despite the fact that the two countries are yet to ink an extradition agreement.

A gradual process of attrition had already decimated the ULFA leadership over the years. Bangladeshi authorities had arrested ‘general secretary’ Anup Chetia on December 21, 1997, and ‘vice chairman’ Pradip Gogoi on April 8, 1998. Founding member and ideologue Bhimakanta Buragohain, ‘publicity secretary’ Mithinga Daimary and ‘assistant secretary’ Bolin Das were arrested during military operations in Bhutan in December 2003. ‘Cultural secretary’ Pranati Deka had been arrested at Phulbari in the West Garo Hills District of Meghalaya in India on October 25, 2003. After the last spate of arrests in Bangladesh, Paresh Baruah, who is reportedly hiding along the Myanmar-China border, the entire top brass of ULFA had been accounted for.

ULFA had also suffered a vertical split in June 2008. Militants of the ‘Alpha’ and ‘Charlie’ companies of the ‘28th Battalion’ had, on June 24, 2008, declared that they were parting ways with the parent organisation, and announced a unilateral cease-fire with the Government. In a statement distributed at Chapakhowa in Tinsukia District after a meeting at Amarpur in Sadiya village of Tinsukia District,  Mrinal Hazarika, speaking for the breakaway ‘Pro-Talks’ faction of ULFA, stated:

To facilitate a congenial atmosphere for the talks, we are declaring a unilateral cease-fire from June 24, 2008, and we hope our gesture would result in reciprocation from the Assam Government and the Government of India.... We have given up our original demand for sovereignty. We are now looking for an acceptable solution to our problems within the framework of the Indian Constitution.

On October 29, 2009, the Union Government initiated formal talks with ULFA-PTF. Leaders of PTF, Mrinal Hazarika, Jiten Dutta and Prabal Neog, held nearly an hour-long meeting with Assistant Director, Intelligence Bureau, R. N. Ravi, in Guwahati, in the “first meeting with any Central Government representative”.

Subsequently, the new batch of top leaders also joined the peace process after their release from jail between February 25, 2010 and January 12, 2011. The broadened ULFA-PTF held its first round of talks with Union Minister of Home Affairs (MHA) P. Chidambaram on February 10, 2011. At a time when ULFA has come under its worst existential threat since its formation on April 7, 1979, the Government – both at the Centre and the State – has displayed extraordinary alacrity in pushing for a negotiated solution.

The meeting with Chidambaram was followed by a full session with senior Home Ministry officials led by Home Secretary G K Pillai. Besides Rajkhowa, the other ULFA leaders present included ‘vice-chairman’ Pradip Gogoi, ‘political adviser’ Bhimakanta Buragohain, ‘foreign secretary’ Shashadhar Choudhury, ‘finance secretary’ Chitrabon Hazarika, ‘cultural secretary’ Pranati Deka, ‘publicity secretary’ Mithinga Daimary and ‘deputy commander-in-chief’ Raju Barua. The ULFA-PTF leadership started threadbare discussions on the charter of demands prepared and handed over by the SJA, a forum of prominent citizens, intellectuals and organisations from Assam, instrumental in bringing the leadership of the ULFA forward for talks, to the ULFA-PTF leadership at Guwahati on May 7, 2011. The SJA charter demands constitutional amendments to give Assam a greater control over her natural resources, revenue generation, participation in the planning process, ensuring a secure demographic situation, besides accelerated and balanced development.

After the meeting, ULFA 'foreign secretary' Sasadhar Choudhury noted, “We are here with the aim to resolve the conflict through political dialogue,” and stressed that the group's core demand of 'sovereignty' would not be discussed. Choudhury stated, further, "Through the talks, therefore, we proposed to evaluate various facets of the Constitution and to explore the viability of protection and enrichment of the sovereignty of the people of Assam in all its dimensions – political, social and cultural, within the flexibility as mentioned by the Prime Minister."

On February 14, 2011, ULFA leaders met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for the first time in New Delhi for an informal discussion. Though no substantive developments were disclosed, the PM described the discussions as “a good beginning” and gave “hope for Assam and North East."

A second round of talks with the Centre is now scheduled to begin in June 2011. Earlier, the talks had been tentatively scheduled for the first week of May, but were pushed back as the Union Government’s condition, that the militants should deposit their weapons before a substantial dialogue, remained unfulfilled. The weapons are reportedly in the possession of two of ULFA’s eight senior leaders (whose names have not been disclosed), but the outfit is undecided on whether it wants to ‘double-lock’ the weapons – keep them in joint custody with one set of keys in the Government’s possession and the other with the militants. Double-locking is a ‘standard practice’ that the Government seeks to impose on surrendered militant groups during negotiations. Nevertheless, Chidambaram stated, on April 29, 2011, that the issue of surrender of weapons by the militants was, in fact, part of the talks.

Meanwhile, the MHA has released the first instalment of INR four million in financial assistance to the ULFA-PTF leaders, including 'chairman' Arabinda Rajkhowa, 'vice-president' Pradip Gogoi, and others, in addition to an estimated 400 cadres. On April 24, 2011, an unnamed Home Ministry official claimed, "We have disbursed the money to the ULFA through the Assam Government. The money has been given to take care of the daily expenses of ULFA members and other family requirements." However, on April 26, Arabinda Rajhowa denied receiving any such money from the Government and claimed that the reports were baseless and part of a sustained campaign to tarnish the outfit's image. There was no further clarification on this from the MHA.

The Centre and the Assam Government have also agreed to allocate land to the group in the Nalbari District to set up a designated camp for its cadres. Officials indicated that the group’s weapons could be deposited on the double lock system at this location.

The Government is also contemplating an offer of jobs to the surrendered cadres in Central Paramilitary Forces as in the case of surrendered militants in Jammu and Kashmir. The idea is to offer something which could help surrendered cadres into the mainstream, if they fulfilled certain conditions. Reciprocating the goodwill gesture, the PTF, on March 25, 2011, had announced that another four leaders, Mrinal Hazarika, Prabal Neog, Jiten Dutta and Jun Bhuyan, would be a part of the peace process initiated by the central leadership.

Unsurprisingly, the Paresh Baruah led ULFA-ATF has rejected the talks, claiming that the PTF had no right to enter into any negotiating process. Prior to the February 10, 2011, talks, Arunodoi Dohotia, ‘publicity secretary’ of ULFA-ATF had claimed, on February 7, "The decision taken by the general council to hold peace talks with the Government cannot be considered legal as the general council itself was unconstitutional."

However, Arabinda Rajkhowa had told journalists on February 5, 2011, that ULFA’s general council had held a meeting on February 2, 2011, and decided to initiate unconditional peace talks with the Union Government, and that all resolutions adopted at that meeting had been conveyed to Paresh Baruah. Further, he insisted that there were no factions in ULFA, and Baruah was still “our commander-in-chief” and that he had never directly opposed the peace process.

Rajkhowa’s claims fall flat in the context of a video clip sent to local TV channels on January 21, 2011, in which Paresh Baruah and his followers made it clear that they were opposed to the 'so-called peace process’. The video clip contained slogans rejecting the peace talks and reiterated Baruah’s original demand for an ‘independent’ Assam. One of the slogans raised was, “We don’t support the so-called talks….Independence is our birth right and we will continue with our armed struggle until we achieve our goal.” The video clip showed over 100 ULFA cadres, including some women, in uniform, wielding sophisticated weapons.

In an e-mail to the Press on February 20, Arunudoy Dohotia, added, further, that Arabinda Rajkhowa and other surrendered leaders had to sit for talks since they were now under the control of the "enemy camp".

On March 16, 2011, moreover, Paresh Baruah initiated an all out effort to revitalise the outfit and, according to intelligence sources, "promoted" more than a hundred militants. On April 21, the ATF re-organized its armed wing by dismantling its existing battalions and bringing all cadres under the ‘mobile military headquarters’. Again, on April 27, sources reveal that the group was carrying out recruitment in the rural areas of lower and central Assam, particularly from villages in the interior, taking recruits to Myanmar for training. Intelligence agencies noticed reports of Baruah procuring weapons from China to strengthen the outfit’s armoury. According to security sources, at least 150 cadres are still with Baruah in the outfit’s camps in Myanmar, and a few other are in Assam. Though ULFA no longer has any camps in Bangladesh, a few elements belonging to the group remain in hideouts in Bangladesh. Sources in the MHA also confirm intelligence that the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) is making efforts to establish a tactical alliance with the ATF.

The ATF still has the wherewithal to jeopardize security in Assam. Five persons were thus injured when the ULFA cadres triggered an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blast at Rajiv Bhavan, the State head office of the ruling Congress Party, at Guwahati on March 14, 2011, in the run-up to the Assembly Elections. 

Nevertheless, on April 8, 2011, Union Home Minister Chidambaram reiterated his invitation to the ATF to join the peace process. Earlier, on March 4, Union Home Secretary G. K. Pillai had said that the Government was expecting Paresh Barua to come for talks once the formal dialogue process wasa underway. At the present juncture, however, this appears to be extremely unlikely.

Nevertheless, with Tarun Gogoi’s re-election as Chief Minister for a third consecutive term, there is an air of optimism in Assam. Talking about his priorities, Gogoi stressed, “I will try and end the insurgency problem in the State. I will bring Paresh Baruah and the anti-talks National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) to the negotiating table.”

This will be a very real challenge for the Chief Minister. Nevertheless, given the participation in the election process – 76.04 per cent of the electorate turned out to vote – and the rising popular exasperation with the unending and directionless militant violence, there is certainly unprecedented pressure on Paresh Baruah and the ATF to ‘rationalize’ their stance. The backdrop in Assam is, today, more amenable to a resolution to conflict than it has been in decades. Whether or not the principals in the conflict have the sagacity to seize the moment, remains to be seen.

 


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
May 9-15, 2011

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

  

Jammu & Kashmir

1
1
0
2

Nagaland

1
0
0
1

Left-wing Extremism

  

Bihar

3
0
0
3

Jharkhand

0
0
5
5

Maharashtra

1
0
3
4

Total (INDIA)

6
1
8
15

PAKISTAN

  

Balochistan

7
0
1
8

FATA

2
0
19
21

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

21
75
5
101

Punjab

6
0
0
6

Sindh

1
2
0
3

Total (PAKISTAN)

37
77
25
139
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.



BANGLADESH


BNP leader Salahuddin Quader Chowdhury threatens War Crimes investigators: Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leader Salahuddin Quader Chowdhury threatened to exact revenge on the investigators of the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) on May 10 during interrogation over his involvement in crimes against humanity. Salahuddin, however, claimed that the allegation of War Crimes (WCs) against him were false. The investigation agency will appeal to the ICT to quiz him again if need be. Daily Star , May 11, 2011.


INDIA


Attack on Indian envoy foiled in Afghanistan: A Pakistani Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) officer had promised two hit men PKR 1.2 lakh to kill the Indian consul general in Afghanistan's Jalalabad Province, spokesperson for the Afghanistan National Intelligence Agency Lutfullah Mashal said on May 12. Afghan security services arrested the two men. "The person, whose name these two Afghans have given us is Colonel Noman, who is said to be the ISI's chief officer in North-West Frontier Province (now known as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa)," Mashal said. Times of India, May 14, 2011.

Wikileaks reveals more about al Qaeda connections of Tablighi Jamaat: The Wikileaks based on statements made by the Guantanamo Bay detainees, revealed that the Delhi based religious organisation Tablighi Jamaat (TJ) is under increasing suspicion for having links with the al-Qaeda. According to the Guantanamo Bay files, al-Qaeda members at various times had used the network of TJ and often posed as missionaries to access visas to Pakistan and other destinations, and used the Jamaat's premises as shelter. PTI, May 10, 2011.

142 wanted terrorists removed from India's 'blacklist': The Central Government has removed from its 'blacklist' the names of 142 wanted terrorists and their associates, including the heads of various Sikh extremist groups. The wanted persons whose names have been deleted are believed to be currently based in countries like Pakistan, the US, Canada, Norway, France and Germany. The names have been deleted in two phases after a review of 169 cases in consultation with the Punjab Government and security agencies. While 25 names were deleted in August 2010, 117 names were deleted in May 2011, according to the Home Ministry. Times of India, May 16, 2011.

Manipur State Cabinet approves tripartite talks with UNC: A meeting of the State Cabinet on May 13 has given its approval to holding tripartite talks involving the United Naga Council (UNC), the State Government and the Centre at Senapati District on May 30. The meeting also decided to communicate with the Union Home Ministry the exact demand of UNC ahead of the proposed tripartite talk. Sangai Express, May 14, 2011.

Jammu and Kashmir Government gives final touch to its "summer strategy": The State Government gave a final touch to its ''summer strategy'' to maintain peace in the Valley. In meeting chaired by Chief Minister Omar Abdullah the Government decided to implement the Standing Operation Procedures (SOPs), which has been approved by Union Home Minister P Chidambaram with immediate effect.

Jammu and Kashmir Government sent a list of 20 youths, currently in Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (PoK), to the Centre seeking their return to the State and their rehabilitation. "We have cleared cases of 20 persons. The names have been sent to the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) and Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) for further follow up," State Home Commissioner B. R. Sharma said. Daily Excelsior, PTI, May 13-14, 2011.

Pakistan may send more militants in India after Osama's death, says Army: The Army on May 14 said Pakistan may sneak in more militants into Jammu and Kashmir to divert attention from its "internal problems" after the killing of al Qaida chief Osama bin Laden. "It is quite likely that Pakistan under pressure, because of so many questions being asked (about Osama), could adopt a strategy of diverting attention which they have always done," General Officer Commanding-in-Chief of Army's northern command Lieutenant General K. T. Parnaik told reporters. Times of India, May 15, 2011.

Government plans to recruit 20,000 more women in paramilitary forces in 3-5 years: The Government has decided to recruit 20,000 more armed women personnel in Central Paramilitary Forces (CPMFs) in the next three to five years. With this the women will comprise 5% of the total strength of CPMFs. As of now, it is not even 1% of the total strength of all the CPMFs together. Times of India, May 13, 2011.

India releases dossier linking 26/11 plotters with ISI: The Indian authorities on May 9 released detailed dossiers on five Pakistani nationals, including a serving Major of Pakistani Inter services Intelligence(ISI) who have been charge sheeted by US authorities in connection with the 26/11. The individual identified as 'Major Iqbal' also figures in a US charge sheet accusing him of being one of the conspirators behind 26/11. Times of India, May 10, 2011.


NEPAL

Maoists still on UN watch list for using child soldiers: The United Nations (UN) continues to list Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) "as a party to conflict using child soldiers" in its latest report. The Secretary General's report on Children and Armed Conflict presented before the UN Security Council on April 23 has included Maoist in the list of 52 armed forces from Asian and African countries that recruit or use children, kill or maim children or commit sexual violence against children during the armed conflict. This is the sixth annual report that has put the Maoists on a watch list for using minors. ekantipur, May 14, 2011

Government proposes one-year CA term extension: The Government on May 12 registered a proposal in Parliament to amend the Interim Constitution and extend the tenure of the Constituent Assembly (CA) by one more year. The proposal seeks to amend Article 64 that states that the tenure of the CA would expire three years after its first sitting - to "four years" from the first sitting held in May 28, 2008. The Bill says that Article 82 of the Interim Constitution envisages that the responsibility of the CA would cease only after a new constitution comes into effect. ekantipur, May 13, 2011.


PAKISTAN

75 SFs personnel and 21 civilians among 101 persons killed during the week in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: 90 people, including 73 paramilitary forces and 17 civilians, were killed when twin suicide bombers attacked Frontier Constabulary (FC) personnel as they were about to leave from a FC training centre in the Shabqadar tehsil (revenue unit) in Charsadda District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on May 13.

The Security Forces (SFs) killed three militants, including a would-be suicide bomber, during an operation in Mula Banda area of Munda tehsil in Lower Dir District on May 10.

A bomb attack targeting a court in Nowshera District killed four persons, including two Police constables, and injured four others including two Policemen. Dawn; Daily Times; The News, Tribune; May 10-16, 2011.

Documents recovered from Osama bin Laden's hideout reveal potential terror targets: The private journal and other documents recovered from Osama bin Laden's hideout in Abbottabad revealed that he intended to target Americans through trains and planes. Osama had urged to kill more Americans in a single attack and to drive them from the Arab world. Dawn, May 13, 2011.

LeT trying to acquire weapons of mass destruction with help from al Qaida: One of Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT)'s most important leaders who was indicted by the United Sates (US) Treasury Department for the July 2006 Mumbai train bombings, Arif Qasmani, is trying to acquire biological weapons and anthrax through his al-Qaida links. The interrogation report of a Pakistani businessman and Guantánamo Bay detainee, Saifullah Paracha, has revealed that LeT was in touch with a US-based "al-Qaida anthrax operative'' as it tried to acquire weapons of mass destruction. Times of India, May 11, 2011.

Osama had some support networks inside Pakistan, says US President Barack Obama: US President Barack Obama said that he thought that "there had to be some sort of support network for [Osama] bin Laden inside of Pakistan". He said, "We don't know whether there might have been some people inside of government, people outside of government, and that's something that we have to investigate, and more importantly, the Pakistani government has to investigate." He added that there were not only individual terrorists in Pakistan but "also a climate inside of Pakistan that sometimes is deeply anti-American. And it makes it more difficult for us to be able to operate there effectively." The Hindu, May 10, 2011.

Pakistan bribed British Parliamentarian for promoting its case on Kashmir: Pakistan Government paid British Parliamentarian George Galloway 135,000 pounds from a secret fund for promoting its case on the Kashmir issue. The issue came to light when the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) of the National Assembly or Lower House of Parliament examined an audit report on May 11. The amount was paid to him from the "Pakistan projection fund" by the Pakistan High Commission in London but it was never credited to the Government account. Daily Excelsior, May 12, 2011.

ISI chief admits 'failure' over Osama bin Laden operation and offers resignation: Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) Director General Lieutenant General Ahmed Shuja Pasha on May 13 'surrendered' himself before Parliament for accountability after conceding intelligence failure of the agency in the Abbottabad operation in which al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden was killed by US Special Forces on May 2.

Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani on May 9 asserted in Parliament "the war against terrorism is our own national priority'' and described the ISI as a "national asset'' which has full support of the Government. Daily Times, The Hindu, May 10-14, 2011.

Secret deal sanctioned US raid against Osama, indicates report: Pakistan struck a clandestine deal in 2001 that allowed the United States (US) to carry out a unilateral raid on its territory similar to May 1-2 raid that killed the al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, Guardian reported on May 9. The agreement was finalised between then military ruler Pervez Musharraf and US President George W. Bush after Osama bin Laden eluded capture in Afghanistan's Tora Bora mountains, the newspaper said, citing serving and retired Pakistani and US officials. Under the terms of the agreement, Pakistan would allow US troops to conduct a raid inside Pakistan in search of Bin Laden, his second in command Ayman al Zawahiri, and the group's third-ranking official. Tribune, May 10, 2011.

Ilyas Kashmiri to head al Qaeda, reveal US media reports: Pakistan Army's commando-turned global terrorist Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri could succeed Osama bin Laden as the chief of al Qaeda. It was reported that Kashmiri may succeed bin Laden as Ayman al-Zawahiri the presumed successor, is deeply unpopular in some circles and his elevation is by no means guaranteed. Times of India, May 12, 2011.

Ministry of Defence seeks 18% rise in defence budget: The Ministry of Defence sought an increase in the PKR 495 billion defence budget proposed by the Ministry of Finance to PKR 524 billion, or 18.4 per cent more than the budget for the outgoing fiscal year. The chairperson of the National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance Fauzia Wahab said the defence budget can be increased up to three per cent of the total size of the economy, while the proposed budget is 2.5 per cent of GDP. Tribune, May 12, 2011.


SRI LANKA

President says LLRC report would be credible unlike Darusman report: Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa on May 10 said the report of the Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation Commission (LLRC) would be credible unlike the Darusman report (the report of panel of experts appointed by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon). The President also said that the term of the Commission had been extended following a request made by it, as the Government was keen on ensuring the credibility of the LLRC report. Colombo Page, May 11, 2011.

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

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K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


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