South Asia Terrorism Portal
Taliban and 'Talks': Blind Optimism Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
The latest round of efforts to bring Taliban to ‘talks table’ has commenced. Sounding optimistic, Atturahman Saleem, Deputy of Afghanistan’s High Peace Council (HPC), when asked whether the Council would wait for a Taliban response, stated on May 20, 2018,,
Notably, Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani, addressing the second Kabul Process conference on February 28, 2018, offered unconditional peace talks to the Taliban. Ghani stated, unequivocally,
Before the beginning of the conference, the Afghanistan Government released a document titled “Offering Peace: Framing the Kabul Conference of February 28, 2018” where it suggested “seven building blocks for peace-making”, including “a political process: ceasefire, recognition as political party, transitional confidence building arrangements, and inclusive, credible, free and fair elections”. The first round of the Kabul Process had been held on June 6, 2017.
The developments between February 28, 2018, and May 20, 2018, and thereafter clearly suggest that Atturahman Saleem’s optimism is entirely misplaced.
To begin with, in the absence of any ‘official’ response from Taliban, the High Peace Council (HPC) on March 5, 2018, warned the Taliban against the consequences if the group rejected Ghani’s peace proposal. Despite the warning, the Taliban indicated, on numerous occasions, that it was not going to accept the proposal. In an ‘article’ posted on its website, Alemarah, on March 6, 2018, it stated, “the Americans gave the Kabul regime orders to start the calls for peace and negotiations… in order to make up for their defeat in the military and political arena which they have been facing constantly.” Again in a statement released on March 10, 2018, the Taliban called the Kabul administration “illegitimate” and described the peace process as “propaganda and deceptive”.
Further on April 14, 2018, when Ghani reiterated the offer asking the Taliban “to act as a political party and participate in the elections while utilizing the prevailing opportunity and the peace offer”, the Taliban was quite clear in its response. A day later, on April 15, it stated that Afghanistan is occupied, with thousands of foreign troops in the country and that major political and military decisions are “taken by the occupiers”. “We have seen in past elections that people have been cheated and the final decision was taken by John Kerry (former US Secretary of State), and the National Unity Government was created at the US embassy in Kabul,” the statement read.
A relatively peaceful conduct of the Parliamentary and District Council elections scheduled to be held on October 20, 2018, is essential for Afghanistan, as indefinite delay in the democratic process can only add to the country’s present misery. However, the challenges of holding this massive electoral exercise within circumstances of enveloping violence across wide areas of the country remain overwhelming.
And there are no indications that violence will diminish, as the Taliban went ahead with its declaration of the ‘annual spring offensive’. In a statement released on April 25, 2018, in which it announced the launch of its ‘Al Khandaq (the Trench)’ campaign, the Taliban stated,
Partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) indicates that, since April 25, 2018, Afghanistan has recorded at least 2,145 terrorism-linked fatalities (data till May 27, 2018). These fatalities include 178 civilians, 157 SF personnel, and 1,810 militants.
There has, in fact, been no respite from terror in the country for years. According to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), civilian casualties were in four digits till 2013, but entered five digits in 2014 for the first time since 2009, when UNAMA started documenting civilian casualties, and have since remained in five digits. There were 10,453 casualties (3,438 deaths and 7,015 injured) in 2017. In the current year, as of March 30, 2018, such casualties had already reached 2,258 (763 deaths and 1,495 injured).
The Taliban remains a resurgent force. According to the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR)’s latest quarterly report released April 30, 2018,
It is imprudent on the part of the Ghani Government to invite Taliban for peace talks at this juncture. Past experiences clearly demonstrate that terrorist formations never join peace talks in good faith when their influence and capacities on the ground are at an upswing. Ignoring the cumulative experience of counter-insurgency within Afghanistan and in theatres across the world, Ghani has chosen to push his ‘peace proposal’ forward, giving some credence to Taliban’s assertion that the Afghan Government and its ‘foreign masters’ are losing the battle. The rising desperation visible in the offer of talks can only further embolden the Taliban, even as the hasty decision of premature withdrawal by the US did. Nothing positive could possibly be achieved as a result of either decision. Indeed, Afghanistan’s Second Vice President General Abdul Rashid Dostum stated on May 14, 2018,
The Kabul Process was initiated to confer a pivotal role in the peace talks on Afghanistan. Almost all the earlier initiatives, including the Qatar Process and the Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) process had given centrality to Pakistan, largely because Pakistan had deceived a willfully gullible international community into believing that peace could only be achieved by making the Taliban the ‘principal stakeholder’ in the talks process. Now it appears that the Kabul Process also has also lost its way. It will be wise on the part of the Ghani Government to initiate immediate course correction.
'South Bastar Division': The Last Maoist Bastion Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On May 27, 2018, a 45-year-old villager identified as Vanjami Sukda, was hacked to death by cadres of the Communist Party of India-Maoists (CPI-Maoist) in Punpalli village under Dornapal Police Station limits in Sukma District. In a pamphlet recovered from the spot, the Maoists accused the deceased of being a ‘Police informer’.
On May 24, 2018, Sub-Inspector Rajesh Kumar was killed and Constable Manik Tinpare, sustained injuries; when a pressure bomb planted by the cadres of the CPI-Maoist went off in a forest near Puswada village in Sukma District. Both were from a CoBRA (Commando Battalion for Resolute Action) unit, a specialized group within the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF).
On May 20, 2018, at least seven personnel of the Chhattisgarh Police [four personnel of the Chhattisgarh Armed Force (CAF) and three of the District Forces (DFs)] were killed and one was critically injured when CPI-Maoist cadres blew up their vehicle, triggering an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blast at Cholnar village in Dantewada District. Special Director General of Police (SDGP), anti-Naxal [Left Wing Extremism, LWE] operations, D.M. Awasthi disclosed, “For the last one year, construction of the Kirandul and Arangpur road was stopped but we have restarted it just a few days ago. The jawans were escorting a truck which was laden with building material when the Maoists targeted them at a culvert between Cholnar and Kirandul village.” Officials disclosed that the Maoists also looted two INSAS (Indian Small Arms System) assault rifles, two SLRs (Self Loading Rifles), and two AK-47 rifles from the possession of the deceased SF personnel.
On the same day, CPI-Maoist cadres opened fire targeting Security Forces (SFs) at an unspecified location in Sukma District. In retaliatory fire, SFs killed a women Maoist cadre, while some 15 Maoists managed to escape from the encounter site. Some of those who managed to flee had sustained injuries.
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Dantewada and Sukma Districts, which fall under the Maoists’ ‘operational zone’ of ‘South Bastar division’ have accounted for at least 42 Maoist-linked fatalities (12 civilians, 20 SFs, and 10 Maoists) in the current year, thus far (data till May 25, 2018). During the corresponding period in 2017, the ‘division’ had recorded 58 fatalities (six civilians, 40 SFs, and 12 Maoists). Through 2017, Maoist-linked fatalities in the ‘division’ stood at 78 [10 civilians, 44 SF personnel, and 24 Maoists].
Since March 23, 2005, the ‘South Bastar division’ has accounted for at least 1,446 fatalities, including 407 civilians, 593 SF personnel, and 446 Maoists (data till May 27, 2018). The first fatality in the ‘division’ was registered on March 23, 2005, when a group of suspected Maoists killed one Policeman and injured another during an attack on the helipad at Danteguda village in Dantewada District. Since March 23, 2005, and till May 27, 2018, Chhattisgarh State accounted for a total of 2,797 fatalities (800 civilians, 997 SF personnel, and 1,000 Maoists). Thus, the ‘South Bastar division’ alone accounted for 51.69 per cent of total-Maoist linked fatalities recorded in Chhattisgarh. The ‘South Bastar division’ tallies 18.74 per cent of total Maoist-linked fatalities recorded across India during this period, with all-India fatalities at 7,713 (3,061 civilians, 1,924 SF personnel, and 2,728 Maoists).
Fatalities in 'South Bastar division' and Chhattisgarh: 2005*-2018
Year
'South Bastar division'
Chhattisgarh
Civilians
SFs
LWEs
Total
2005
38
37
18
93
52
42
26
120
2006
161
47
72
280
189
55
117
361
2007
41
133
45
219
95
182
73
350
2008
10
5
9
24
35
67
66
168
2009
25
50
89
164
87
121
137
345
2010
34
100
46
180
153
102
327
2011
4
36
81
39
70
176
2012
7
20
2
29
108
2013
28
13
61
48
128
2014
8
40
3
51
33
113
2015
16
21
53
2016
12
58
90
207
2017
44
78
32
59
169
2018*
43
105
407
593
446
1446
800
997
1000
2797
Source: SATP, * Data since March 23, 2005; **Data till May 27, 2018
The SF:Maoist kill ratio in South Bastar has been overwhelming in favour of the Maoists for nine years [2005 (2.05:1); 2007 (2.95:1); 2010 (2.17:1); 2012 (10:1); 2013 (1.53:1); 2014 (13.33:1); 2015 (1.31:1); 2017 (1.83:1) and 2018 (2:1)]. The ratio stood in favour of the SFs in five years [2006 (1:1.53); 2008 (1:1.8); 2009 (1:1.78); 2011 (1:1.13) and 2016 (1:2.9)]. Disturbingly, the SF: Maoist kill ratio in the ‘division’ over the years favoured the Maoists with 1:1.32. The SF:Maoist kill ratio in Chhattisgarh has been marginally in favor of the SFs with 1:1.003 over the period 2015-2018 (data till May 27, 2018).
‘South Bastar division’ has also accounted for large number of civilian killings. During between March 23, 2005, and May 27, 2018, the ‘division’ accounted for 407 civilian fatalities, around, 50.87 per cent of total civilian fatalities recorded in the State.
Since March 23, 2005, the ‘South Bastar division’ has also accounted for at least 112 major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities), resulting in 964 fatalities (240 civilians, 434 SF personnel, and 290 Maoists). In the current year, two such incidents have already been recorded resulting in 16 fatalities (all SF personnel). Apart from the May 20 incident at Cholnar, the ‘division’ witnessed an incident in which at least nine CRPF personnel were killed and two were critically injured, when CPI-Maoist cadres blew up a Mine-Protected Vehicle (MPV) in Kistaram jungle area of Sukma District on March 13, 2018. Significantly, the worst ever Maoist attack, across all regions, targeting SFs took place at the Tarmetla village near Chintalnad in the Dantewada District on April 6, 2010, when 75 CRPF troopers and one Chhattisgarh Police trooper were slaughtered by the Maoists.
The ‘South Bastar division’ is reportedly headed by Maoist ‘commander’ Raghu aka Pungar Mandavi, while the ‘secretary’ of the ‘division’ is Vikas. The two Districts (Dantewada and Sukma) of the ‘division’ also come under the ‘purview’ of the ‘Darbha division’ of the CPI-Maoist, which ‘looks after’ these two Districts, along with Bastar. The ‘Darbha division’ is led by a senior Maoist Surinder aka Kabir. He is also reportedly ‘heading’ the new ‘MMC (Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh) region’.
The Maoists have, however, suffered significant losses at leadership level in the ‘division’. The former ‘South Bastar division’ ‘secretary’, Kurasam Mothi Bai aka Madhavi (40), was arrested in Vijayawada city in Krishna District of Andhra Pradesh on June 3, 2013. Madhavi was said to have danced around the slain body of Mahendra Karma, founder of Salwa Judum (an anti-Maoist vigilante group) after the Maoists killed 28 persons including Karma, and injured another 30, some of them critically, in a swarming attack in the Darbha Ghati region of the Sukma District on May 25, 2013. At least 25 Maoist ‘leaders’ operating in the ‘division’ have been killed so far [between March 23, 2005 and May 27, 2018]. These include at least 13 ‘commander’ level leaders. Another 41 ‘commander’ level leaders have been arrested. Also, the mounting pressure of the SFs has forced at least 30 ‘commander’ level leaders to surrender.
The two Districts (Dantewada and Sukma) falling under the ‘South Bastar division’ – are spread over a geographical area over 11,132.91 square kilometers, and offer immense tactical advantages to the Maoists. The forest cover of the ‘division’ is 8,516.21 square kilometres, i.e., about 76.49 per cent of the total area. The Division is situated to the south of the State, and is surrounded mostly by currently Maoist-affected or erstwhile Maoist-affected Districts of the State and neighbouring States of Odisha and Telangana. To the south, the ‘South Bastar division’ shares borders with Khammam in Telangana; to the north, with Bastar in Chhattisgarh; to the east, with Malkangiri in Odisha; and to the west, Bijapur in Chhattisgarh. All these adjacent Districts are among the 30, across seven States, identified by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) as "worst-affected" by Maoist violence. The two Districts of the ‘division’ - Dantewada and Sukma – are themselves among these 30.
On April 17, 2018, Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh stated in an interview that the South Bastar region, by virtue of being surrounded by four inter-State borders with Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, is subject to Left-wing extremism perpetrated by those who come from outside Chhattisgarh. He thus noted,
Moreover, the two Districts of the ‘division’ are afflicted by relatively low standards on all human development indicators. A report released by the Government of India listed Dantewada and Sukma among 115 ‘backward districts’ of India. The Districts were identified on the basis of select indicators of backwardness and prevalence of Left Wing Extremism. The indicators of backwardness included Poverty, Health, and Education.
Despite suffering losses, SFs have succeeded in increasing their pressure on the Maoists in the region. According to a report dated April 24, 2018, a letter recovered by SFs in February 2017 from Bastar points to increasing SF operations in the region forcing the Maoists to shift to the ‘MMC region’, of which Gondia and a tip of Gadchiroli (both in Maharashtra) are part. The letter, written to a Maoist rebel identified as comrade Surendra, from comrade Somru read: “Oppression is rising. The enemy is opening camps. Villagers are fleeing from the area and we are working in difficult conditions.”
Significantly, on May 21, 2018, the 241st battalion of the CRPF was commissioned at the Force’s anti-Naxal training school in Chhattisgarh. The battalion, named “Bastariya Warriors”, comprises personnel drawn largely from the Bastar region, and is tasked with carrying out anti-Naxal operations in that area. With 534 personnel, including 189 women, the battalion has been raised with the specific purpose of strengthening SF operations in areas where they have suffered their greatest reverses owing to a lack of concrete intelligence, and familiarity with locals and topography.
On April 30, 2018, the Chhattisgarh Government extended the ban on the CPI-Maoist and six of its front organisations [Dandakaranya Adivasi Kisan Mazdoor Sangh, Krantikari Adivasi Mahila Sangh, Krantikari Adivasi Balak Sangh, Krantikari Kisan Committee, Mahila Mukti Manch and Janatana Sarkar ('people's government' unit)] for one more year. The CPI-Maoist was first banned, along with its affiliates, in the State under provisions of the Chhattisgarh Special Public Security Act-2005 in April 2006.
The Maoists’ ‘South Bastar division’ remains a major challenge for the State. The ‘final battle’ against the Maoists is set to be decided/won in this ‘division’, where the Maoists continue to wield significant influence, and retain disturbing levels of operational capabilities.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia May 21-27, 2018
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
INDIA
Arunachal Pradesh
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Jharkhand
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
PAKISTAN (Total)
54.5 billion Afghanis pledged to support ANDSF, states Ministry of Finance: Ministry of Finance (MoF) Afghanistan in a statement said the Combined Security Transition Command – Afghanistan (CSTC-A) has pledged 54.5 billion Afghanis to support the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces (ANDSF). The statement further added that the agreement was signed by Finance Minister Eklil Hakimi, Defense Minister Tariq Shah Bahrami, and CSTC-A Commander Major General Robi L. Fontes. The Government will use the funds mainly to cover the budget of the ANDSF for the afghan fiscal year 1397-1398. Khaama Press, May 25, 2018
16 HNLC militants are still present in Bangladesh, says report: 16 more Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC) militants are still in Bangladesh. Meghalaya Director General of Police (DGP) Swaraj Bir Singh stated that the recent surrender of two HNLC cadres would prompt others to join mainstream. He added that currently there are no camps of HNLC in Bangladesh. Police sources said the top leaders of HNLC have made Bangladesh as their second home and the remaining cadres live by working in betel nut plantations. The Shillong Times, May 22, 2018.
JuD recruits ‘gullible’ boys to wage war against India, confesses arrested LeT terrorist Zabiullah aka Hamza: Arrested Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terrorist – Zabiullah aka Hamza - has confessed that Hafiz Saeed —founder of LeT and ‘chief’ of Jamaat–ud-Dawa (JuD) - and Zakir-ur-Rehman Lakhvi are recruiting ‘unsuspicious’ youth to wage war against India. JuD leaders openly invite boys with an age of 15-20 years of Pakistan to join jihad and prepare them with a will to sacrifice. Hamza was arrested on March 20, 2018, during an operation in Kupwara District in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). Times of India, May 28, 2018.
ULFA to be disbanded after signing of peace accord, states ULFA-PTF ‘chairman’ Arabinda Rajkhowa: Arabinda Rajkhowa ‘chairman’ of United Liberation Front of Asom-Pro Talk Faction (ULFA-PTF) stated that would be formally disbanded after signing of an accord with the Government of India (GoI). The accord is likely to be signed later this year. Rajkhowa and ULFA ‘general secretary’ Anup Chetia said that negotiations with GoI were in the final stage. They also added that ‘after signing of the accord, Assam will constitutionally gain the rights over land, besides political and economic rights. The Telegraph further adds that ULFA-PTF proposed that the GoI raise an unarmed battalion of security forces with its cadres to form a ‘second line of defence’ in Assam along the India-Bangladesh border. During a meeting with a central team in New Delhi on May 21 the group also pushed for withdrawal of cases registered against its cadres. Assam Tribune, May 22, 2018.
Central Government ready for talks with Hurriyat Conference, says UHM Rajnath Singh: Union Home Minister (UHM) Rajnath Singh on May 26 declared that the Central Government is ready for talks with all stakeholders in Kashmir, including All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), if they come forward. Asserting that the Centre was ready to talk with all stakeholders in Jammu and Kashmir including the Hurriyat Conference, Rajnath made it clear that there was nothing wrong in the talks with whosoever comes forward for it. However, he said, so far there has been no indication from them (the Hurriyat Conference) on the dialogue. Daily Excelsior, May 27, 2018.
More than 3,000 Hazaras killed since September 11, 2011, activist Jalila Haider informs Senate Functional Committee on Human Rights: Briefing the Senate Functional Committee on Human Rights on May 23, lawyer and human rights activist Jalila Haider said that more than 3,000 members of the Hazara community have been killed since September 11, 2011, according to official figures while unofficial reports say 4,000 Hazaras have been killed in the same time, most of whom are men. She said the committee should look into the plight of the Hazara community where 10,000 plus women and children are living in abject conditions with restricted rights of freedom of expression and movement. The committee was meeting for a briefing on causes for recent attacks and the measures taken to ensure safety of the minority community. “More than 90,000 Hazara families have migrated to other countries through fair means or fowl, only to live in worst conditions. They must be brought back and rehabilitated,” Jalila Haider said. She also blamed the Balochistan Government for instilling fear in the Hazara community instead of guaranteeing their safety. “There is no writ of law. We are misrepresented. Hazara women are harassed and there is no security of life for our children,” she said. “The Hazara community is tired of living in concentration-camp like conditions,” she added. Dawn, May 23, 2018
JuD chief Hafiz Saeed's political party MML to drag Pakistan election commission to court for contempt: The Milli Muslim League (MML), the political face of Mumbai attack mastermind and ‘chief’ of Jammat-ud-Dawah (JuD), the frontal organisation of Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Hafiz Saeed on May 21 accused Pakistan's election commission of using delaying tactics to register the group as a political party and committing contempt of court. Saeed has already started campaigning for the MML with an eye on the general elections in Pakistan expected to be held in July 2018. The MML has not been yet registered by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). Times of India, May 21, 2018.
SLFP breakaway faction pledges to cooperate with Joint Opposition: The 16-member Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) group that broke away from the Government called on former President Mahinda Rajapaksa on May 23 and pledged to cooperate with the Joint Opposition in the future political matters. MP Dayasiri Jayasekara told that he and his colleagues had expressed their willingness to work to bridge the gap between President Maithripala Sirisena and the joint opposition. However, he said the SLFP breakaway group would function as a separate entity inside and outside Parliament. "We will cooperate with the joint opposition when it comes to political activities. It does not mean that we will join them," he said. Daily Mirror, May 23, 2018.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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