South Asia Terrorism Portal
Electoral Consolidation amidst Violence Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
Parliamentary Elections were conducted across 32 out of 34 Provinces on October 20 and October 21, 2018. The Parliamentary Elections were earlier scheduled for October 20 only. However, it were extended into a second day on October 21, after hundreds of polling stations were closed on the first day of voting due to technical issues.
Elections in Kandhar Province were postponed due to an attack by Taliban terrorists on October 18, 2018, which left the Provincial Police Chief General Abdul Raziq and Provincial Intelligence Chief General Abdul Momin dead. Elections in the Province were subsequently held on October 27. The attackers had also targeted the Commander of the US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Forces in Afghanistan, General Scott Miller, who escaped unhurt.
According to reports, Elections in Ghazni Province were postponed over disagreements around constituencies as well as security issues. Significantly, Ghazni Province had briefly fallen to the Taliban in August 2018. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) clarified on October 27, 2018, that Parliamentary Elections in Ghazni Province could possibly be held at the same time as Presidential Elections in April 2019.
In the evening of October 21, 2018, Abdul Badi Sayad, head of IEC, stated that the voter turnout was “impressive”, at 45 per cent across 32 Provinces. These Provinces have a total of 8,292,548 registered voters. The voting percentage in Kandhar Province, with a total of 567,608 registered voters, was not known at the time of writing. Ghazni Province, which is yet to go to the polls, has 57,951 registered voters. The total number of registered voters in the country is 8,918,107.
The Elections were marred by significant violence. Afghanistan's Interior Minister Wais Barmak confirmed on October 20, 2018, that 192 ‘security incidents’ had occurred across the nation on the day of parliamentary polling. According to varying media reports, at least 67 people — 27 civilians, nine security force (SF) personnel, and 31 terrorists — were killed and 126 were injured in 192 attacks by militants on October 20, the first day of Elections. Reports indicate that there were more than 50 incidents reported on October 21 as well, the second day of Elections.
Partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM) identified at least 26 election-related incidents of violence across Afghanistan after voter-registration began (data till October 28, 2018). These incidents resulted in 181 deaths [149 civilians, 18 SF personnel, and 14 militants] and 303 injured. Voter registration for the Parliamentary Elections began on April 14, 2018. Significantly, on April 1, 2018, IEC Chairman Abdul Badi Sayat had confirmed that the long-delayed Afghan Parliamentary Elections would be held on October 20. No election-related incident of violence was reported across Afghanistan between April 1, 2018, and April 13, 2018.
Preliminary results will not be released before mid-November and final results are expected in December.
Before the October 2018 Elections, Afghanistan had held two Parliamentary elections since the end of Taliban rule, the first in 2005 and the second in 2010. The third election – which was due in April-May 2015, as the five-year term of the present Parliament was set to expire on June 22, 2015 –were repeatedly postponed both because of security fears as well as disagreements on how to ensure a fair vote after the bitterly contested Presidential Election of 2014. In the meantime, President Ashraf Ghani extended the Parliament’s mandate until a vote could be held, through a decree issued on June 19, 2015. The current Parliament is operating under this decree.
A comparative analysis of the 2018 and 2010 elections clearly demonstrates that the present exercise has been more successful – in terms of voter participation and providing security on Election Day. According to IEC, the voting percentage rose from 40 to 45 per cent. However, during the 2005 Parliamentary Elections, a 49 per cent voter turnout was recorded.
Moreover, the level of violence (in terms of incidents on election day) also declined in 2018 as compared to 2010. According to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), 488 incidents were recorded on election day, September 18, 2010, as against 192 confirmed by the Afghan Government for October 21, 2018. Fatalities, however, have gone up. Figures from the Afghan Ministry of Defense revealed that 24 individuals were killed on election day in 2010 (13 police officers and 11 civilians). 67 fatalities have been confirmed by the Government on October 21, 2018.
Crucially, 58 and 60 per cent of voters risked their lives to cast their votes in the two phases of the Presidential election in April and June 2014, despite Taliban threats and escalating violence, suggesting a tremendous surge in popular support to the democratic process. 382 violent incidents on Election Day in April 2014 failed to deter voters. The 2009 Presidential elections had recorded a turnout of 38.7 per cent.
The present Election, amidst rising violence and doomsday predictions in Afghanistan, are a major achievement for the Government and Security Forces. An UNAMA release on October 20 observed,
Again, on October 24, 2018, UNAMA stressed that
The achievement is greater in view of a rapidly deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan. According to the UNAMA Mid-Year Report released on July 15, 2018, the number of civilians killed in the country hit a record high in the first half of the year, with 1,692 civilian fatalities – the highest recorded in the same time period in any year over the decade since the agency began documenting civilian casualties in 2009. There were 1,672 civilian deaths in 2017, 1644 in 2016 and 1615 in 2015, over the same time period.
The Taliban have sustained their capacities for tremendous disruption. According to the 40th Quarterly Report of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), as of May 15, 2018, there were 229 Districts under Afghan Government control (74) or influence (155), only 56.3 per cent of the total number of Districts in the country. This represented no change in District control since the preceding quarter, but was a slight improvement over the 57 per cent reported in May 2017. The number of contested Districts – controlled by neither the Afghan Government nor the insurgents –however, increased by three in the quarter under review, to 122 Districts, with 30 per cent of Afghanistan’s Districts now in the ‘contested’ category. 14 per cent of all Afghan Districts were under Taliban control according to SIGAR'S 39th Quarterly Report, and this remained unchanged in the 40th Quarterly Report.
Afghan Presidential Elections are now due in April 2019. Kabul will struggle to ensure a more peaceful election and one that is seen to be transparent and fair. The latter challenge is there tremendous, with bitter accusations marring the Presidential elections of 2014, and widespread allegations of rigging and malpractices against the Government in the present Parliamentary polls as well. On October 21, 2018, Independent Electoral Complaint Commission (IECC) disclosed that it had already received 5,547 complaints, even as the process was ongoing. According to a report dated October 25, 2018, at least 7,000 complaints had been received by the IECC. The report also claimed that another 5,000 complaints were received by TOLO News, an Afghan New Agency, and further 1,300 complaints by the Free and Fair Election Forum of Afghanistan, an independent agency.
Significantly, in the 2004 Presidential Elections, fatalities during the campaign period (September 7 to October 7) totaled 196. The Presidential elections of October 9, 2004, were widely seen as fair. As a result, post-election violence was relatively low. On the other hand, the 2009 Presidential Elections saw a total of 1,173 persons killed during the campaign period (June 16 to August 18). The elections, which were held on August 20, 2009, were themselves marred by bitter controversy, so much so that a runoff election was declared on November 7, 2009, though this finally called off on November 2, after the runner up, Abdullah Abdullah decided, on November 1, not to contest, citing the “inappropriate actions of the Government and the election commission.” The level of violence surged. Acrimonious Presidential elections followed in 2014. However, both the candidates, Abdullah Abdullah, the former Foreign Minister, and Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, former Finance Minister, decided to form a National Unity Government (NUG). Nevertheless, internal discord within the Government continues, even as violence has increased since 2014.
Free, fair and peaceful Presidential Elections in April 2019 will go a long way in consolidating the culture of democracy in Afghanistan, further delegitimizing the Taliban and paving the way towards a resolution of the bloody confrontations that have crippled the country for decades now.
Bijapur: Leaning on the Maoists Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On October 20, 2018, Security Forces (SFs) killed at least three Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres during an encounter, which ensued when SFs launched a combing operation in the Madpal Forest of Bijapur District. SFs later recovered the bodies of the slainMaoists, a .303 rifle, live rounds, a tiffin bomb, cordex detonating cord, ‘revolutionary’ literature and other material from the encounter site. A day earlier, SFs had destroyed two Maoist camps in the Indravati National Park forest area in the District.
On October 13, 2018, SFs killed one CPI-Maoist cadre and injured another at a weekly market in the Cherpal area of Bijapur District. According to reports, Maoists carried out an attack targeting SFs in the market, injuring one Police constable. One Maoist was killed in the retaliatory fire,while another sustained a bullet injury, and was later arrested.
On August 3, 2018, one CPI-Maoist cadre was killed and two Policemen received injuries in an encounter at Basaguda village in Bijapur District. Ratan Lal Dangi,Deputy Inspector General (DIG) of Police, South Bastar Range,disclosed that around five or six Maoists opened fire at a weekly market in Basaguda in which two Policemen sustained injuries. One Maoist was shot dead in retaliatory fire by the Police.
On July 19, 2018, SFs killed at least eight CPI-Maoist cadres, including three women, during an encounter near Timinar and Pusnar villages in Bijapur District. The gun battle between the Maoists and the SFs took place while SFs were out on an anti-Maoist operation. Sundarraj P., DIG (anti-Naxal operations), disclosed that two INSAS (Indian Small Arms System) assault rifles, two .303 rifles, one 12 bore gun and a few muzzle loading guns were recovered from the encounter site.
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 38 Maoists have been killed in 12separate incidents in Bijapur District in 2018 (data till October 29, 2018). During the corresponding period in 2017, 12 Maoists had been killed in 10 incidents. A total of 19 Maoist cadres were killed in the District in 14 incidents through 2017.
There were at least 33 Maoist fatalities in 17 incidents in 2016; 17 in nine incidents in 2015; 20 in 12 incidents in 2014; 11 in seven incidents in 2013; 27 in seven incidents in 2012; 14 in seven incidents in 2011; 31 in eight incidents in 2010;41 in 12 incidents in 2009;44 in 11 incidents in 2008 and 10 in four incidents in 2007. Notably, the District of Bijapur was carved out from the erstwhile Dantewada District on May 11, 2007.
With still over two months to go in 2018, the year has recorded the second highest fatalities among the Maoists, on year on year basis, recorded since 2008, when the total was 44.
There has also been an increase in the number of SF fatalities in the current year. At least 12 SF personnel have died so far in the current year. During the corresponding period of 2017, Bijapur had accounted for seven SF fatalities. There were a total of seven fatalities in this category through 2017. A maximum of 23 fatalities was reportedin this category in 2007.
SFs have improved their kill ratio in the current year,at1:3.16 in 2018 (data till October 29). SFs had secured a positive kill ratio in 2017, at1:1.71; and 2016 at 1:3.85(data till October 29 for both years), as well. The ratio remained in favour of SFs through 2016 (1:3.66) and 2017 (1:2.71). The kill ratio has remained in favour of SFs since 2012.
Further, 56 Maoists have been arrested by SFs during combing operations in Bijapur District in 2018(data till October 29), according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal.During the corresponding period in 2017, at least 37 Maoists had been arrested, as against a total of 68 through 2017.
Moreover, at least 15 Maoists have surrendered in 2018, as a result of the pressure from the SFs. During the corresponding period in 2017, 11 Maoists had surrendered. There were no more surrenders in the remaining period of 2017.
Civilian fatalities, a crucial index of the security situation in an area, have also been on a decline since 2014, and touched its lowest at three in 2017. Though there has been an increase in the number of fatalities in this category, at five,in the current year, the last of these killings was recorded on May 16, 2018, when CPI-Maoist cadres killed an employee of a construction contractor and set four construction vehicles on fire in Bijapur District.At peak in 2009, Bijapur accounted for 28 civilian fatalities.
On April 8, 2018, Chief Minister Raman Singh claimed that "frustrated Maoists" are losing influence due to joint action of the State and Central Governments, which have put the Chhattisgarh on the path of development by building roads, schools and hospitals in remote and inaccessible areas, which were earlier hotbeds of Maoist activity. He, however, admitting the reality that many Districts in Chhattisgarh remained backward, including Bijapur, Dantewada, and Sukma, adding:
In the relatively backward areas of the State, including Bijapur, the fight is far from over. An overview of fatalities since Bijapur’s creation on May 11, 2007, illustrates that the District has registered at least 622 Maoist-linked fatalities, including 305 Maoists, 156 SF personnel and 161 civilians, roughly 25.89 per cent of the total of 2,402 fatalities, including 921 Maoists, 906 SF personnel and 575 civilians, recorded in Chhattisgarh during this period (data till October 29, 2018).
Bijapur falls within the troubled Bastar Division of Chhattisgarh, which remains the principal challenge for the State, and is the worst affected region in the country. Bijapur is also listed among the eight worst Left Wing Extremism (LWE) affected Districts in Chhattisgarh and the 30 worst-affected Districts identified by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) across the country, in 2018. On August 1, 2018, UMHAdisclosed that Bijapur, along with seven other Districts (Bastar, Dantewada, Kanker, Kondagaon, Narayanpur, Rajnandgaon and Sukma) of Chhattisgarh are among 30 Districts in seven States which are most affected byLWE violence. These 30 Districts accounted for 88 per cent of violent incidents and 94 per cent of deaths in the countryin 2017. Nonetheless, UMHAasserted that resolute implementation of the National Policy and Action Plan (NPAP) by the Central and State Governments has resulted in considerable improvement of the situation both in terms of reduction of violence and geographical spread. The number of violent incidents declined to 908 in 2017 from a high of 2,258 in 2009 across the country. The geographical spread of violence has also shrunk considerably.
On October 8, 2018, intelligence units operating in Chhattisgarh warned of heightened Maoist activity in the State, especially in Bijapur, Dantewada, Narayanpur and Sukma, in the run-up to the State Assembly elections, to be held in two phases State Assembly on November 12 and November 20, 2018. Significantly, the Maoists killed at least four Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel and injured another two in an ambush on October 27, 2018, near the CRPF’s Murdana camp under Awapalli Police Station in Bijapur District.
The State and Central Governments have taken several measures, both for the operational containment of the Maoists, as well as for the developmental and administrative improvement of insurgency afflicted regions.A further consolidation and intensification of focused and intelligence-based operations is now inevitable.
According to an August 5, 2018, report, the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) has taken responsibility, for the first time, to ensure the completion of a 4.5-kilometres vital stretch of an RCC (Roller Compacted Concrete) road between Bhairamgarh and Keshkutul in southern Bijapur District. Sanjay Arora, CRPF Inspector General, Chhattisgarh, on July 23, 2018, disclosed,
Significant improvements in Police capacity are also on record in the District. According to a September 18, 2018, report, two Police Stations –Bhopalpatnam and Madded –in Bijapur have been found to be in accordance with the requirements of the Quality Management System International Standards Organisation (ISO) 9001:2015 certification [maintenance of law and order, prevention & detection of crime, establishing peace and tranquillity and achieving other policing activities]. Bastar range Inspector General of Police (IGP), Vivekanand Sinha disclosed,
Without doubt, the Maoists are facing a severe threat in their erstwhile strongholds, including Bijapur, as well as across Chhattisgarh and India at large.The Maoists have, however, engineered several cycles of resurgencesin the past. Sustained efforts by SFs and other State agencies will be necessary if lasting peace is to be established in Bijapur and across the State.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia October 22-28, 2018
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
Total
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
Odisha
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
PAKISTAN (Total)
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reaffirmed the alliance’s support to an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process: The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reaffirmed the alliance’s support to an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process. Stoltenberg further added “We do that, not by participating directly in peace talks, that’s not NATO’s role, but we support them politically. NATO’s Allies provide support, but our most important contribution to the peace process is to send a clear message to the Taliban and to other insurgents that they cannot win in the battlefield so we have to train, assist and advise the Afghan forces in a way that enables them to make it clear to the Taliban that they will not win on the battlefield, they have to sit down at the negotiating table.” Khaama Press, October 25, 2018.
Assassination plan of Police Chief of Kandahar General Abdul Raziq was made in Pakistan, says President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani: President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani said on October 23 that the assassination plan of Police Chief of Kandahar General Abdul Raziq was made in Pakistan. Khaama Press, October 25, 2018.
India, Afghanistan, and Iran hold first trilateral meeting on Chabahar port project: India, Afghanistan and Iran on October 23 held their first trilateral meeting on Chabahar port project during which they reviewed its implementation. Pajhwok, October 25, 2018.
Maoist ‘chief’ Ganapathy tops most wanted list by NIA: The National Investigation Agency (NIA) in its latest list of the “most wanted” has put a reward of INR 1.5 million on the head of Muppala Lakshmana Rao aka Ganapathy, ‘general secretary’ of Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), tops the list of the most wanted persons in the country. Though the Police and Intelligence Organisations of several States as well as the agencies of Government of India have been chasing him, Ganapathy has always managed to dodge them and believed to be ensconced somewhere in Dandakaranya forest. The Pioneer, October 27, 2018.
India and Myanmar agree to fight insurgency along the border region: During 22nd Home land security meeting between India and Myanmar, both countries agreed to fight insurgents operating along the border between and check smuggling of wildlife and narcotic drugs. According to a Home Ministry official, both the sides agreed to act against insurgent groups operating within their territories. The Indian delegation was led by Union Home Secretary Rajiv Gauba and the Myanmar delegation by Major General Aung Thu, Deputy Minister, Ministry of Home Affairs, Myanmar. Assam Tribune, October 27, 2018.
Odisha Police got unprecedented success in Anti-Red Operations, says DGP R P Sharma: Director General of Police (DGP), R P Sharma, on October 21, lauding the efforts of Odisha Police said the State has achieved significant success in the ongoing anti-Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) operations in the country and killed 15 hardcore extremists in the past one year. “The Odisha Police has tasted unprecedented success and engaged in 24 gun-battles between October 22, 2017, and October 18, 2018, killing 15 hardcore members of CPI (Maoist). Odisha Bytes, October 23, 2018.
Former President Nasheed shall not be charged with terrorism, says Foreign Minister Dunya Maumoon: The Foreign Minister of the present government in the Maldives—Dunya Maumoon on October 27 has said that she believes the former President Mohamed Nasheed shall not be charged with terrorism. In past events, every lawmaker in the Maldives faced a charge of terrorism and it was difficult to respond to the criticism from the international community. I wish that the former President Nasheed gets his freedom through the justice system, said Dunya. Maldives Times, October 27, 2018.
NCP Co-chairman warns Province 2 Government not to overtake federal Government: Nepal Communist Party (NCP) Co-chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal warned the Province 2 Government not to overtake the federal Government; warning that it could derail the country from its journey towards federalism. Referring to the Province 2 Government’s move to bring Provincial Police Act prior to the related federal law, Dahal has warned the provincial executive not to ignore the federal government that holds a two-thirds majority. The Kathmandu Post, October 24, 2018.
Ministry is holding consultations before finalizing controversial bill to amend Transitional Justice Act, says Minister for Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs Bhanu Bhakta Dhakal: Minister for Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs Bhanu Bhakta Dhakal said the Ministry is holding consultations with the political leadership before finalizing the controversial bill to amend the Transitional Justice Act for making the law more widely acceptance. “We are looking for consensus from different sectors so that the transitional justice process can go ahead smoothly. We are open even to an entirely new Act if required,” Minister Dhakal told the Post. The Kathmandu Post, October 23, 2018.
JuD, FIF no more on list of banned outfits: The Jamaat-ud Dawa (JuD) and Falah-i-Insaniyat Foundation (FIF) headed by Hafiz Mohammad Saeed are no more on the list of banned outfits after the presidential ordinance that proscribed them under a UN resolution lapsed. During the hearing on October 25 of a petition filed by Hafiz Saeed, his counsel informed the Islamabad High Court that the presidential ordinance had lapsed and it had never been extended. The petitioner had challenged the ordinance under which his organisations had been banned for being on the watch list of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Dawn, October 26, 2018.
Pakistan poses three times more terror risk than Syria: A study, `Humanity at Risk - Global Terror Threat Indicant (GTTI), by Oxford University and Strategic Foresight Group (SFG) on October 27 revealed that It's not Syria, but Pakistan which poses the maximum terror risk to humanity. The analysis states Pakistan is right on top of the list of countries with the highest number of terrorist bases and safe havens. The study also reveals that terror outfits Afghan Taliban and the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), which have a significant presence in Pakistan, pose the highest risk to international security. Times of India, October 28, 2018.
NACTA inks accord with HEC to combat on-campus terrorism, extremism: The National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA) and the Higher Education Commission (HEC) on October 25 signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for having effective collaboration on prevention and awareness to combat “on-campus” extremism and terrorism. The MoU was signed by NACTA National Coordinator Khaliq Dad Lak and HEC Executive Director Lieutenant General (retired) Muhammad Asghar. The scope of the MoU was to establish a sustained and effective collaboration and partnership in order to combat extremism and terrorism in the country through joint research and collaboration. Dawn, October 26, 2018.
Pakistan releases Afghan Taliban’s former deputy chief Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar: Pakistan on October 23 released Afghan Taliban’s former deputy chief Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar on the intervention of Qatar. Mullah Baradar, one of the four top commanders who formed the Afghan Taliban in 1994, was captured by the Pakistani security agencies in 2010.He has been finally released from jail on the solicitation of the Government of Qatar. Mullah Baradaris believed to be the highest-ranking Afghan Taliban prisoner freed so far. The News, October 24, 2018.
UPFA leaves NUG and appoints former President Mahinda Rajapaksa as new Prime Minister: In a surprising political development, United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) on October 26 decided to leave the National Unity Government (NUG) formed with the United National Party (UNP) and sacked Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and appointed former President Mahinda Rajapaksa as the new Prime Minister. President Sirisena's Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), the main constituent party of the UPFA, and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe's UNP formed the NUG on a platform of good governance in August 2015 following the Parliamentary Elections. Colombo Page, October 27, 2018.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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