South Asia Terrorism Portal
Assam: Provoking Polarization Giriraj Bhattacharjee Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On November 1, 2018, at least five Hindu Bengali daily-wage workers, including three of a family, were killed by suspected United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I) militants in Bisonimukh village, in Tinsukia District. The victims were identified as Shyamal Biswas (60), Ananta Biswas (18), Abhinash Biswas (23), Subal Das (60), and Dhananjay Namasudra (23). Following the attack, Pallab Bhattacharyya, Special Director General of Police (DGP-Special Branch) of the Assam Police, told the media,
As SAIR has repeatedly noted earlier, while general intelligence inputs regarding possible attacks are rife, specific and actionable intelligence is rarely available to Security Forces (SFs) on the ground.
On November 2, 2018, however, ULFA-I denied responsibility for the attack, declaring, “We, the United Liberation Front of Asom (Independent) would like to make it clear that our organisation does not have any involvement in the firing incident that occurred on 1st November 2018 at Sadiya Saikhowaghat in Tinsukia District.”
The November 1 incident was the worst single incident, in terms of civilian killings, recorded in Assam since August 5, 2016. Fourteen civilians were killed when suspected National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-IKS) militants opened fire at a weekly market at Balajan Tiniali in Kokrajhar District in the 2016 incident. Seventeen civilians were also injured in the incident. Later, SF personnel deployed in the area killed one of the attackers.
In the interim, the State recorded just one major incident (involving three or more killings) with civilian fatalities in the State, resulting in the death of three civilians. On August 12, 2016, three Hindi speaking civilians were killed by suspected ULFA-I militants in Bamunbari village under Philobari Police Station in Tinsukia District. Since 2010, at least 200 civilians have been killed in at least 19 major incidents in Assam.
On October 13, 2018, four people were injured when a low-intensity blast took place in the Sukleshwar Ghat area near Pan Bazar, a prime commercial hub, in capital city Guwahati. ULFA-I ‘commander-in-chief’ Paresh Baruah claimed responsibility:
Significantly, polarization on religious and linguistic lines has sharpened in the State ever since the Supreme Court monitored exercise of updating the National Register fors Citizen (NRC) was initiated in 2015, to identify bona fide residents of Assam. The final draft NRC published on July 30, 2018, has tentatively identified four million (40.07 lakh) persons whose nationality is suspect. Earlier, the first draft NRC Published on December 31, 2017, had left out 14 million people.
In 2005, under a tripartite agreement between the All Assam Students Union (AASU), and the State and Union Governments, it was decided that the National Register for Citizens (NRC) would be updated towards the implementation of the 1985 Assam Accord. The Assam Accord was signed after a six-year long ‘anti-foreigners’ agitation led by AASU and other regional bodies, between 1979-1985.
The Union Government had assured citizenship to ‘persecuted minorities’ from neighbouring countries of Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan who had entered India (including Assam) before December 31, 2014, through a proposed Citizenship (Amendment) Bill 2016. The organizations representing Assamese and other ‘indigenous’ groups fear that the passing of the Bill would encourage more illegal immigration and legitimize the illegal immigrants already present, reducing the ‘son of the soil’ to a minority. The organisations representing Bengali Hindus, however, support the Bill, seen as a ‘savior’ of ‘persecuted’ Hindus. The Bill has also led to divided opinion in the predominantly Assamese speaking Brahmaputra and Bengali speaking Barak Valleys. As a result, some Barak Valley-based organizations have revived an old demand of granting Union Territory status to the Valley.
Apparently some ‘leaders’ of both the Pro-Talks faction of ULFA (ULFA-PTF) and ULFA-I have seized the opportunity created by anxieties over the NRC, in an attempt to regain lost legitimacy. ULFA-PTF led by Arabinda Rajkhowa entered into talks with Union Government on September 3, 2011. Reports indicate that the peace talks with ULFA-PTF are ‘nearing completion’ and hence taking a pro-Assamese position can bolster their diminished credentials.
According to media reports of October 24, 2018, ULFA-PTF leader Mrinal Hazarika had declared, “We will never allow the passing of the Bill. If the Bill is passed, Assam must be ready to revisit the era of 1983. The government must be ready to face massacre-like situations.”
Earlier, on May 9, 2018, Hazarika’s comrade from undivided ULFA’s ‘28th battalion’ Jiten Dutta had also threatened to withdraw from the ceasefire and take up arms if the Union Government passed the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2016. "If the Centre passes the bill, the Kakopathar Camp will withdraw from ceasefire”. He had added that they "won't refrain from taking up arms if the people so desire”. He claimed that Anup Chetia and other senior ULFA-PTF leaders like Prabal Neog and Antu Choudang were with him.
Similarly, ULFA-PTF ‘general secretary’ Anup Chetia on May 9, 2018 stated,
Not surprisingly, two ULFA-PTF, leaders Mrinal Hazarika and Jiten Dutta, were detained for questioning in Guwahati in (Kamrup Metro) and Sivasagar District, respectively, on November 2, 2018, for making provocative speeches.
Additionally, the detection of Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM-Assam module), and sleeper cells tied to Pakistan’s external intelligence agency Inter-Services-Intelligence, as well as other extremist Islamist organisation; such as the Popular Front of India (PFI), indicates that several actors are poised to fish in Assam’s troubled waters. According to a report dated December 24, 2017, intelligence agencies had intercepted messages by PFI sent to West Asian countries, linked to a campaign launched against the updating of the NRC. In the public eye ‘illegal immigration’ has become synonymous with Bengali (Bangladeshi) Muslims, the political rhetoric also differentiates between Bangladeshi Hindus as ‘persecuted victims’ and Muslims as ‘infiltrators’. Further, the proposed Citizenship Amendment Bill 2016 will take care of Hindus not included in the updated NRC. However, those Muslims not included in the NRC list will become ‘stateless’, as Bangladesh has refused to accept them as citizens. Bangladeshi Information and Broadcasting Minister Hasanul Haq Inu, in an interview to Indian media, on July 31, 2018, stated,
Indeed, NRC and the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill 2016 are two sensitive issues which have the potential to derail the relative peace of recent times. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the State has recorded 17 fatalities (six civilians, one SF trooper, 10 militants) in 2018 (data till November 4). This is the lowest fatality figure recorded, on year on year basis, since 1992, with under two months left in the current year. The lowest fatalities prior to this, 26, were recorded in 2017.
State Finance Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma after the November 1 incident, however, argued,
Indeed, according to the SATP database, since 2007, at least 142 non-locals have been killed in Assam.
Insurgent violence in the State, founded on the anti-‘foreigner’ movement, claimed 8,302 lives between 1992-2018. The situation in the State is once again becoming volatile, and the active destabilization and provocation of various political formations, including elements of the ruling party as well as surviving constituents of the insurgency – both active and those engaged in a peace process – are adding fuel to the fire. Extraordinary sagacity will be required to avert another conflagration in Assam – and this is a resource in acute deficit at both the national and State level.
Balochistan: Festering Wound Tushar Ranjan Mohanty Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
Five construction workers of non-Baloch ethnicity were shot dead while another three suffered injuries in an attack near Ganz, some 15 kilometers west of Jiwani town in the Gwadar District of Balochistan on October 31, 2018. According to official sources, the labourers were working at a China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)-related private housing scheme on Peshkan-Ganz road, which links Gwadar with Jewani, when a group of unidentified assailants riding motorcycles appeared on the scene and opened fire. Security officials identified four of the deceased as Naeem Ahmed and Hunzullah, residents of Karachi (Sindh); Irshad Ali of Sukkur (Sindh); and Muhammad Shakir of Multan (Punjab). The identity of the fifth deceased is yet to be ascertained.
Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) ‘spokesperson’ Azad Baloch, claiming responsibility for the attack, stated,
He added that any agreement with China and other countries by Pakistan, without the consent of the Baloch nation and before the freedom of Balochistan, has no legal standing. Further, that Pakistan on October 29, 2018, organised a conference of 26 countries – Asian Parliamentary Assembly Committee on Political Affairs – in its attempt assert the legality of its illegal occupation in Balochistan. Warning against the ongoing ‘colonisation’ of Balochistan he stated,
He added that China and Pakistan were building around 70 housing schemes under the exploitative CPEC colonisation project.
On August 11, 2018, six persons – among them three Chinese engineers – were injured in a suicide attack on a bus in the Dalbandin area of Chagai District in Balochistan. The bus carrying 18 Chinese engineers was being escorted by Frontier Corps (FC) troops to the Dalbandin airport from the Saindaik copper and gold mines, when a suicide bomber tried to drive his explosives-laden vehicle into the bus. “The explosives-laden vehicle exploded near the bus on Quetta-Taftan Highway – and as a result three Chinese engineers, two FC soldiers and the bus driver were injured,” an unnamed Levies official stated. Saifullah Khatiran, Deputy Commissioner of Chagai District, disclosed that the engineers were working on the Saindak project, a joint venture between Pakistan and China to extract gold, copper and silver from an area close to the border.
Jiand Baloch, a BLA ‘spokesperson’, had then stated, “We targeted this bus which was carrying Chinese engineers. We attacked them because they are extracting gold from our region, we won’t allow it.” In a statement issued on Twitter, the BLA identified the suicide bomber as Rehan Baloch, who died in the attack, as the elder son of BLA's ‘senior commander’ Aslam Baloch.
On May 4, 2018, six ethnic Punjabi labourers were killed and one injured in an incident of firing in the Laijay area of Kharan District. Levies sources said the labourers, who hailed from eastern Punjab, were working on a mobile tower and were sleeping in tents at the site when unidentified militants on motorcycles opened fire on them. The assailants escaped unhurt after the attack. There was no claim of responsibility.
There is persistent discontent among the ethnic Baloch with regard to CPEC, as the Province is at the heart of the USD 62 billion scheme – a massive series of projects that includes a network of highways, railways and energy infrastructure spanning the entire country. CPEC is a flagship project in China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This discontent constitutes an enduring threat to Chinese engineers, workers and people associated the constituent projects from Baloch nationalists, who consider it part of a 'strategic design' by Pakistan and China to loot Balochistan's resources and eliminate the Baloch culture and identity.
Highlighting the existing discontent, the then Balochistan Chief Minister Mir Abdul Quddus Bizenjo on April 11, 2018, had said that his province was being neglected by the Federal Government in the CPEC project: “More than Rs. [PKR] 5,000 billion is being spent on the CPEC, but Balochistan is not receiving even one per cent of it.”
Earlier, on March 5, 2017, pro-Government Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M) president Sardar Akhtar Jan Mengal had asserted that no development could be seen in Balochistan under CPEC, and that this project would not benefit its people, as not a single development project had been launched in the region as part of the mega project. He had also argued that CPEC was not meant for the development of Balochistan, but rather for converting the Baloch nation into a “minority on its own soil.” Sardar Mengal alleged, further,
Asserting that CPEC would convert the Baloch people into minorities in their own homeland, Noordin Mengal, a human rights campaigner from Balochistan, stated that, with an influx of outsiders as a result of the project, the identity of the Baloch was being threatened.
Much earlier, on August 13, 2016, dubbing China, a 'great threat' to the Baloch people, United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) Balochistan representative Mehran Marri had argued,
Indeed, the Senate (upper house of the National Assembly) was informed on November 24, 2017, that 91 per cent of the revenues to be generated from the Gwadar port as part of CPEC would go to China, while the Gwadar Port Authority would be left with a nine per cent share in the income for the next 40 years. This was disclosed by the then Federal Minister for Ports and Shipping, Mir Hasil Bizenjo, after senators expressed concern over the secrecy surrounding the CPEC long-term agreement plan, with many observing that the agreement tilted heavily in China’s favour. Balochistan will not get a single paisa from the revenue, because ports are a federal subject and no steps were taken to make an exception for the impoverished Balochistan province.
The Gwadar Port is the epicentre of whole of CPEC project in Pakistan, yet the residents of the city have a hard time getting drinking water on a daily basis. In order to address the drinking-water shortage in Gwadar, the Federal Government has announced many desalination plants, but none has yet materialized.
Most of the other CPEC projects are for power generation, as Pakistan was facing a severe power shortage. CPEC projects are expected to generate almost 10,000 megawatts of electricity for the national grid. But again, Balochistan has not benefited from this. Of the 21 electricity-generation plants planned under CPEC, only one is in Balochistan, and that will also supply electricity to the national grid and not exclusively to Balochistan.
Provoked by a sense of deliberate neglect of the province and systematic loot of its natural resources, the Baloch militant groups have been targeting non-Baloch workers and people associated with CPEC. Militants trying to disrupt construction of CPEC projects in Balochistan have killed 66 persons since 2014. According to Colonel Zafar Iqbal, a spokesperson for the construction company Frontier Works Organisation (FWO), “The latest figure has climbed up to 44 deaths and over 100 wounded men on CPEC projects, mainly road construction in Balochistan, which began in 2014.” Since September 7, 2016, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), another 22 persons have been killed in different CPEC related projects across the province (till November 4, 2018).
The latest attack, on October 31, came a couple of days before newly elected Prime Minister Imran Khan’s departure for China on a three-day official visit. Khan’s visit evoked considerable interest as it comes in the wake of his past criticism of CPEC projects. On October 6, 2018, Khan declared that Pakistan was reviewing the projects under CPEC to safeguard the interest of the people in Balochistan Province, adding, "Balochistan will get its due share, whatever it may be, in the CPEC." Unfortunately, the Province has been getting such assurances for a long time, without any visible positive movement on the ground.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia October 29-November 4, 2018
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
Total
INDIA
Assam
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
Maharashtra
Odisha
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
Punjab
PAKISTAN (Total)
SIGAR releases 41st Quarterly Report to US Congress: Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) on November 1 released its forty-first Quarterly Report to United States (US) Congress. Afghan Government control or influence of its Districts reached the lowest level (55.5%) since SIGAR began tracking district control in November 2015. Since that time, Afghan Government control and influence over its Districts has declined by about 16 percentage points; contested Districts have increased by about 11 points; and insurgent control or influence has risen by 5.5 points. SIGAR, November 2, 2018.
273 people were killed and 550 others injured in all security incidents in the month of October across Afghanistan, says CPAG: Civilian Protection Advocacy Group (CPAG) on November 1 said 273 people were killed and 550 others injured in all security incidents in the month of October across Afghanistan. According to CPAG statistics, the reasons behind high casualties in October were targeted killing of Wolesi Jirga candidates, attacks on election campaigns and polling stations particularly during the Election Day. At least 367 civilians suffered fatalities during campaign related attacks as 88 people were killed and 279 others wounded. Pajhwok, November 2, 2018.
Five Taliban ‘leaders’ join the Taliban ‘political leadership’ in Qatar for talks: Taliban Spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid has confirmed that a group of five Taliban ‘leaders’ including Mullah Noorullah Noori, Mullah Khairullah Khairzada, Mullah Abdul Haq Wasiq, and Mawlavi Mohammad Nabi Omari previously released from Guantanamo detention facility have arrived in Qatar and joined the Taliban ‘political leadership’ in their office in Qatar for peace talks. Khaama Press, November 1, 2018.
“We're going on offense against the Taliban”, states Resolute Support Commander General Austin Scott Miller: The United States (US) Forces and Resolute Support Commander in Afghanistan General Austin Scott Miller said in an interview that “we're going on offense against the Taliban,” adding that a more aggressive posture was needed because of heavy casualties among Afghan forces. "My assessment is the Taliban also realizes they cannot win militarily. So, if you realize you can't win militarily at some point, fighting is just, people start asking why. So, you do not necessarily wait us out, but I think now is the time to start working through the political piece of this conflict", he added. Tolo News, November 1, 2018.
Any US military role would be conditioned based, says US Defence Secretary James Mattis: United States (US) Defence Secretary James Mattis has said any US military role would be conditioned based and would be determined in coordination with the Government of the day, once peace was achieved in Afghanistan. “Any US military coalition role after the peace is reached, would be conditions-based, worked out with the Afghan government and depend on the threat,” Mattis said in response to a question in Washington. Pajhwok, November 1, 2018.
Only Afghans can take a decision on Durand Line, says Meshrano Jirga Chairman Fazal Hadi Muslimayar: The Afghan Senate House Meshrano Jirga (Parliament) Chairman Fazal Hadi Muslimayar in response to alleged remarks of a United States (US) Senator that aid for Afghanistan will be conditioned on Afghanistan’s recognition of Durand Line as formal border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, said that no one has the right to decide in this regard, emphasizing that the issue relates to the Afghan nation and only Afghans would take a decision in this regard on October 28. Khaama Press, October 30, 2018.
BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia sentenced to seven years' rigorous imprisonment: Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Chairperson Khaleda Zia was convicted in Zia Charitable Trust corruption case and sentenced to seven years' rigorous imprisonment by a special court in her absence on October 29. Khaleda, as the first managing trustee, opened the account with the PMO branch of Sonali Bank on January 1, 2005, and within a week from January 13, BDT 7.81 crore was deposited in the account in phases, said the judgement. The prosecution has been able to prove the charges beyond reasonable doubt. The Daily Star, October 31, 2018.
Afghanistan sends communique to India about Keralites who joined Islamic State, says report: The National Investigation Agency (NIA) submitted the letter sent by Afghanistan Government to the Indian Government related to Keralites who joined Islamic State (IS) and moved to the war-torn country, before NIA Court in Kochi in Ernakulam District of Kerala on November 2. NIA submitted the letter sent by Afghanistan Government before NIA Court in Kochi when the application for the custody of a Kalpetta native who was allegedly deported from Afghanistan was heard on November 2. New Indian Express, November 4, 2018.
Fruitful talks with militants will end extortion in Manipur, says CM N Biren Singh: Chief Minister (CM) N. Biren Singh on October 31 said extortion rackets are active in the state but assured people that the problem will be solved once talks with militants and insurgent groups are completed. CM N. Bren Singh said, “I can assure that once talks with various militant groups are completed, the problem (extortion menace) will be solved,” “Many insurgent groups are under Suspension of Operations (SoO), but there are others (who are active),” he said. Indian Express, November 3, 2018.
Kerala-based Jihadi groups opens business outlets in UAE, warns Indian Intelligence agencies: In a letter to the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), the Indian Intelligence agencies warned that Kerala-based jihadi groups have opened business outlets in several parts of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) which facilitates Indians with criminal background hiding in other Gulf countries to evade arrest in India. Reportedly, the jihadi business outlets recruits economically weak Indians expats in the UAE and motivates them to adopt Islam as a religion. There are inputs that a jihadi group based in Kerala [unspecified] is collecting INR three crore in Qatar for managing the court cases of Muslim groups who participated in various protest in India. Zee News, November 1, 2018.
Supreme Court agrees to review former President Nasheed’s conviction, says report: The Maldives’ Supreme Court has accepted the petition by the Prosecutor’s Office to consider and review the terrorism conviction of former President Mohamed Nasheed. Supreme Court bench has agreed to sanction the petition by the Prosecutor General's (PG) office. Nasheed lives in self-imposed exile most recently in Sri Lanka after he was allowed to leave to the United Kingdom (UK) on medical leave in an internationally brokered deal following his imprisonment on terrorism charges. He was sentenced to 13 years in prison over the arbitrary arrest and subsequent detention of a sitting judge while he [Nasheed] was President. Avas.mv, October 30, 2018.
Father of Taliban’ Maulana Samiul Haq assassinated in Rawalpindi: Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Sami (JUI-S) chief and prominent religious scholar Maulana Samiul Haq (81) was assassinated at his residence in Bahria Town of Rawalpindi on November 2. The former senator and an ally of the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI), Maulana Samiul Haq, also known as ‘Father of the Taliban’, was alone at his house in Bahria Town when stabbed to death by unidentified assailant(s).Haq’s eldest son, Maulana Hamidul Haq, told media that his father had been ailing with heart problems and that he was in bed when the attacker(s) came. “His driver Haqqani had gone out. On his return, he found Maulana Sahib lying in a pool of blood in his bed,” he said, adding that his father was stabbed and probably shot as well. JUI-S leader Maulana Abdul Majeed said there was no one present at the house when Haq was attacked. Daily Times, November 3, 2018.
Supreme Court acquits Asia Bibi in blasphemy case: The Supreme Court on October 31 overturned the conviction of Asia Bibi, a Christian facing execution for blasphemy. A three-judge bench headed by Chief Justice Mian Saqib Nisar, with Justice Asif Saeed Khosa and Justice Mazhar Alam Khan Miankhel its members, had reserved its ruling on Asia Bibi’s final legal appeal against execution on October 8.“The appeal is allowed. She has been acquitted. The judgement of the high court as well as the trial court is reversed. Her conviction is set aside,” the Chief Justice said while announcing the verdict to a packed courtroom. “She is to be released forthwith if not required in any other case,” he added. Daily Times, November 1, 2018.
118 MPs sign resolution against Mahinda Rajapaksa as Prime Minister: A resolution signed by 118 Member of Parliaments (MP’s) against the appointment of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa as the Prime Minister and the appointments and decisions that followed, was handed over to Speaker Karu Jayasuriya on November 2. In the resolution, the MPs said the gazette notification issued by President Maithripala Sirisena on October 26 making Rajapaksa the Prime Minister was against the Constitution of Sri Lanka. Daily Mirror, November 3, 2018.
Attorney General refuses to endorse President's dismissal of Prime Minister: Sri Lanka's Attorney General Jayantha Jayasuriya on October 31 refused to endorse the President Maithripala Sirisena’s dismissal of the Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe for former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, the clearest sign yet the move may be unconstitutional. Jayasuriya's refusal bolstered Wickremesinghe's claim that the President acted outside the constitution by dumping him for Mahinda Rajapakse. Daily Mirror, November 1, 2018.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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