South Asia Terrorism Portal
Meghalaya: Risking Major Gains M.A. Athul Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
For the last seven months and seven days (at the time of writing), Meghalaya has not recorded a single insurgency-linked fatality. The last fatality was reported on August 3, 2018, when a National Democratic Front of Bodoland-Saraigwra (NDFB-S) militant was killed by Security Forces (SFs) at Tarasin in the East Garo Hills District
The declining trend of fatalities established since 2015 continued through 2018 as well, with Meghalaya recording seven insurgency-linked fatalities, including two civilians, two Security Force, SF, personnel and three militants in the year, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP). In 2017, the State saw eight fatalities (two civilians and six militants), as against 26 in 2016 (10 civilians and 16 militants). There were 61 fatalities (19 civilians, eight SF personnel and 34 militants) in 2015. Meghalaya recorded the highest of 76 fatalities (23 civilians, six SF personnel and 47 militants) in 2014. A previous high of 64 fatalities was recorded way back in 2002 (29 civilians, 18 SF personnel and 17 militants).
The fatalities recorded in 2018 were the lowest in the State since 2009, when there were five killed (one civilian and four militants). However, fatalities increased between 2010 and 2014: with 20 in 2010; 29 in 2011; 48 in 2012; 60 in 2013; and 76 in 2014.
Other parameters of violence have also progressively decreased.
On January 17, 2018, State Director General of Police (DGP) Swaraj Bir Singh disclosed that there had been 341 incidents of violence in in 2014, which declined to 310 in 2015, and further down to 118 in 2016 and 21 in 2017. According to the SATP database, there were a total of four violent incidents in 2018.
Indeed, insurgency-linked fatalities have been on a constant decline since 2015, particularly after the launch of Operation Hill Storm on July 11, 2014, which has almost wiped out the most potent insurgent group of the region, the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA). Since the launch of the operation, at least 37 GNLA militants were killed (two in 2018, five in 2017, 10 in 2016, 13 in 2015 and seven in 2014); 153 have been arrested (two in 2018, 10 in 2017, 37 in 2016, 56 in 2015 and 48 n 2014); and 176 have surrendered (18 in 2018, 21 in 2017, 94 in 2016, 20 in 2015 and 23 in 2014). The end of this insurgency was marked by the killing of GNLA founder ‘commander’ Sohan D. Shira on February 24, 2018, at Dobu A’chakpek in East Garo Hills District.
After Shira’s death, the remaining GNLA militants also surrendered. Significant incidents of surrender include:
March 11, 2018: Eight GNLA militants surrendered at Akelgrein East Garo Hills District. The surrendered militants were identified as Klubirth Sangma aka Keke, Chonbirth Ch Marak, Rahul S. Sangma alias Nikam, Sujit G Momin alias Roben, Hendison M Sangma alias Newak, Barningstone S Sangma aka William, Thangkam Ch Momin aka Bilwat, Pinbil Ch Marak aka Churik. The militants also deposited two AK 56 rifles, one Sub Machine Gun, one INSAS, one .303 rifle, one .22 pistol, one 9 mm pistol, two wireless sets and an unspecified amount of ammunition.
March 15, 2018: The last batch of GNLA militants surrendered at an unspecified location to the authorities. The surrendered militants handed over two AK 56 rifles, an INSAS rifle, a foreign made Glock pistol, one semi machine gun (SMG), a .303 rifle, one mm pistol and a large quantity of ammunition.
According to a militant identified as Bhim Bahadur Chetry aka Kancha, who surrendered on February 16, 2018, the remaining GNLA strength was 18 at the time of his surrender. Formed in 2009, GNLA had a cadre-strength of about 300 in 2012.
Subsequent, to the GNLA surrenders, SFs carried out search operations and recovered huge stockpiles of the group’s weapons. Some of the significant recoveries include:
April 11, 2018: During a search East Garo Hills Police along with villagers recovered a GNLA ammunition cache. The recovered items include 2,038 rounds of bullets, 60 rounds of 9 mm pistol, 1,087 rounds of 7.7 mm bullets, 320 rounds of Heavy Machine Gun (HMG) ammunition, 10 remote circuits for Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and two remote controls.
July 13, 2018: SFs recovered 347 HMG rounds, four pistols, six pistol magazines, six shotgun cartridges, one Chinese grenade, 57 rounds of ammunition of 7.62 Self Loading Rifle (SLR), four IED remotes, one walkie talkie, nine remote IED circuits, 28 electronic detonators, two Smooth Bore Breech Loading (SBBL) shotguns, 485 AK 47 bullets, 104 rounds of .303 rifle and 2,659 rounds of 7.7 mm rifles from Dorengkigre and Bawegre in East Garo Hills District.
Nevertheless, given the cyclic trend of violence witnessed in the State, the risk of regression persists, as the ‘ingredients’ that fed past insurgency remain abundant.
Significantly, the State recorded an episode of ethnic clashes between Khasis and local Sikhs after a Khasi bus handyman was allegedly assaulted by a group of residents of the Them Metor locality (also known as Punjabi lane) on May 31, 2018, in Shillong. Trouble escalated when rumours spread on social media that the helper had succumbed to his injuries, prompting a group of bus drivers to converge at Them Metor. At least 40 people and 100 Policemen were wounded in the clashes and 15 companies of Central Armed Police Forces were deployed to contain the violence. Curfew was imposed on June 1, 2018, in localities such as Jaiaw, Mawkhar, Umsohsun, Riatsamthiah, Wahingdoh, Mission, Mawprem, Lumdiengjri, Lamavilla, Qualapatty, Wahthapbru, Sunny Hill, Cantonment, Mawlong Hat localities, and was subsequently extended to cover the whole of Shillong. Though the curfew was relaxed from June 6, 2018, it was completely removed from the city only on August 21, 2018.
Moreover, given the opportunistic nature of the political class, both within the State and at the Centre, and the pattern of polarizing politics that now dominates, it is not unlikely that the insurgents looking for revival will not get such issues to exploit for their own benefit. One such provocative issue is the Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB). Like other States in the region, Meghalaya has witnessed an uptick in political mobilisation after the passing of CAB on January 8, 2019, in Lok Sabha (Lower House of India’s Parliament) as well as occasional incidents of violence. On January 10, stray incidents of burning tyres on the roads were reported from across the Khasi and Jaintia Hills Districts during a “stay off the road protest” called by the Confederation of Hynniewtrep Social Organisation (CoHSO) in protest against CAB. On January 30, 2019, a protest rally attended by thousands of people (exact number not available) was organised by the Northeast Students Organisation (NESO) at Shillong in East Jaintia Hills District. The rally was also attended by members of other organisations such as the Federation of Khasi Jaintia and Garo People (FKJGP), Ri Bhoi Youth Federation (RBYF), Garo Students Union (GSU), All Janitia Youth Organisation (AJY). More worryingly, just a day before the passing of CAB in the Lok Sabha, on January 7, 2019, unidentified people lobbed a Molotov cocktail (petrol bomb) at the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) office at Shillong in East Khasi Hills District.
CAB was scheduled to be tabled before the Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Indian Parliament) on February 13, 2019. However, it was not put up for discussion and the Bill is set to lapse on June 3, 2019, as the term of current Government of India (GoI) ends.
Incidents of violence related to CAB have subsided for now, but any attempts to revive the Bill will, in all likelihood, generate much more opposition across the region, including Meghalaya.
Given the cyclical nature of insurgent violence in Meghalaya, the authorities have to ensure that they are able to capitalize on the ‘peace dividend’ resulting from the very effective counter insurgency campaign. While the insurgency in Meghalaya has now been comprehensively defeated by the law enforcement agencies, socio-political tensions persist. These issues have not been effectively addressed by the State administration. Moreover, ethnic identity movements have received a shot in the arm due to the attempt to introduce CAB, and agitations and civil unrest have become more likely, as mistrust and apprehension with regard to alleged ‘outsiders’ are likely to be amplified. The danger of losing out on the counter-insurgency gains of the past years can only grow, if the politics of destabilization persists.
Gilgit Baltistan: Brutal Assimilation Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
According to a February 13, 2019, report, the health of political leader Baba Jan, one of the most popular leaders in the region, who is serving a life sentence in prison for his alleged role in inciting violence in the region in 2010, is deteriorating. Protests have been organized across Gilgit Baltistan to demand for proper medical facilities to Baba Jan. A woman protestor argued that “since there is no facility available for angiography in Gilgit Baltistan, he should be shifted to Islamabad or to any other city where he can receive better medical attention”. A more shocking, but expected disclosure, was made by another protestor,
Health facilities across the region are inadequate. It is useful to recall, here, that Gilgit Baltistan is one of Pakistan's most backward regions, with several indicators of human development actually registering worsening trends. According to the Gilgit Baltistan Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (GB-MICS, 2016-17) report prepared by the Planning & Development Department, Government of Gilgit-Baltistan, in association with United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), released in September 2017, for instance,
This is not surprising given the apathetic view of the Governments – both in Gilgit Baltistan and in Islamabad – towards the region. The fact of the matter is that the Gilgit Baltistan Council, which was established with much fan fare, failed to perform its duty to bring development in the region. The following data on the Member Development Program illustrates significant shortfalls in implementation:
Details of Member Development Program*
Financial Year
Approved schemes
Completed schemes
Approved amount
Released amount
Remaining
2012-13
27
19,783,891
0
2013-14
2
10,000,000
2014-15
76
75
42,280,000
42,178,000
102,000
2015-16
103
131,018,949
88,625,949
42,393,000
2016-17
152
168,028,000
68,247,240
99,780,760
Total
360
102
371,110,840
218,835,080
152,275,760
Despite the many projects ‘completed’, the region remains bereft of basic minimum facilities, even though it has remained one of the most peaceful areas of an otherwise violent country. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Gilgit Baltistan has recorded 85 terrorism related fatalities out of a total of 30,886 across Pakistan, since 2011 (data till March 10, 2019).
Somewhat belatedly, the Federal Minister for Kashmir Affairs & Gilgit Baltistan Ali Amin Khan Gandapur announced on March 10, 2019, that a 50-bed cardiac hospital was being built in Gilgit, and is scheduled to be completed by 2020: “The hospital is an important project regarding provision of health facilities to the people of Gilgit and Baltistan.” He also stated that a comprehensive survey was being carried out in Gilgit Baltistan regarding provision of educational and health facilities in the area.
Islamabad’s focus is, in reality, more on changing the constitutional status of Gilgit Baltistan than on providing any relief to the population. On January 17, 2019, the Supreme Court of Pakistan while extending its powers to the region argued,
A larger seven-judge bench headed by Chief Justice Saqib Nisar was hearing a plea challenging the earlier SC order of restoring Gilgit-Baltistan Order 2018.
Significantly, on August 8, 2018, the Supreme Court had restored the Gilgit Baltistan Order 2018, suspending the decision of the Supreme Appellate Court of Gilgit Baltistan.
The Gilgit-Baltistan Order 2018 was promulgated by the former Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi on May 21, 2018, and replaced the Gilgit Baltistan Empowerment and Self Governance Order 2009, with the ostensible aim of providing the “same rights enjoyed by the other citizens of Pakistan to people of Gilgit Baltistan.” The August 8, 2018, order purportedly provided political, administrative, financial and judicial powers to people in the region. In actual fact, however, the order shifted powers from the Gilgit Baltistan Council — including those related to passing laws relating to minerals and tourism — to the Gilgit Baltistan Assembly. A comparative analysis of the 2009 ad 2018 Orders indicates that the ‘special rights’ the people of Gilgit Baltistan enjoyed have been curtailed further. For instance, the Legislative Power, according to the 2009 Order, was vested in the Gilgit Baltistan Council (though this was led by the Prime Minister of Pakistan, but also had representatives from Gilgit Baltistan) and the Gilgit Baltistan Assembly. As per the 2018 Order, this power lies with the Prime Minister of Pakistan and the Gilgit Baltistan Assembly, which comprises 33 members of which 24 members were Elected through direct Election. The Prime Minister seems to hold final authority in terms of legislative powers, as the Gilgit-Baltistan Order 2018 reads,
Moreover, the overall executive authority of Gilgit Baltistan shall be exercised in the name of the Governor by the Government, consisting of the Chief Minister and Ministers, which shall act through the Chief Minister, who shall be the Chief Executive.
The Gilgit Baltistan Order 2018 was, in fact, passed with an aim to ‘incorporate’ Gilgit Baltistan as the ‘fifth province’ of Pakistan, to quell any voice of opposition to China’s ambitious China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project. Two provisions of 2018 order prominently highlight this reality:
Though Islamabad claims that CPEC projects would create employment opportunities for some 1.8 million people in Gilgit Baltistan, locals explicitly reject the claim. Amir Hussain, a political analyst from the Lower Hunza part of the region, observes,
As SAIR had noted earlier, with opposition to CPEC and the administration’s policies and practices in the region, Islamabad had, on May 9, 2016, placed nearly 140 persons in Gilgit Baltistan under Schedule-IV of the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA), 1997, purportedly to maintain ‘durable peace in the region’: “The imposition of the fourth schedule is a must to maintain law and order. The government will resist all political pressure.” Schedule-IV of ATA, 1997, deals with people who are not directly involved in terrorist activities, but whose affiliation with banned outfits or previous criminal record brings them ‘under suspicion’. They are kept under surveillance by the police to prevent the possibility of their involvement in any potential or future terrorist activity.
Indeed, China has been asking Pakistan to ensure that there should be no opposition to its project and that ‘peace’ is maintained. Islamabad has mastered the art of ensuring the 'peace' in the troubled region since 1948 with the help of draconian laws and brutal military might, and is in all likelihood will use the provisions of Gilgit Baltistan Order 2018 (with the Supreme Court’s stamp of approval over it) to intensify the use of brute force, this time ‘more legally’.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia March 4 - 10, 2019
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
Jharkhand
Kerala
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
PAKISTAN (Total)
11 people killed in mortar attack in Kabul: On March 7, 2019, at least 11 people were killed and another 95 injured when militants carried out a mortar attack at an open-air rally marking the 24th death anniversary of Shiite leader Hazara Abdul Ali Mazari. Mazari, the head and co-founder of Hezb-i-Wahdat, a Shia political party that was formed from a coalition of several political parties after the withdrawal of Soviet Union in 1989, was killed by the Taliban on March 13, 1995, along with nine of his followers. Pajhwok, March 8, 2019.
Attack on Helmand Base plotted across Durand Line, says Acting Defense Minister Assadullah Khalid: Acting Defense Minister Assadullah Khalid, indirectly referring to the role of Pakistan, on March 4 said that the Taliban’s attack on the 215 Maiwand Corps in the Helmand Province was plotted on the other side of the Durand Line. On March 1, 2019, at least 23 Afghan soldiers were killed and another 15 injured as Taliban militants attacked the Shorab Military Base in Helmand Province. In the retaliatory action, the Afghan Security Forces (SFs) had killed 20 militants. Tolo News, March 4, 2019.
Taliban will not win on the battlefield, says NATO Secretary General: The NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on March 7 said that NATO has a presence in Afghanistan to create conditions for peace and send a clear message to Taliban that they will not win on the battlefield. “We support the peace efforts. We are there to create the conditions for peace. To send a clear message to the Taliban that they will not win on the battlefield, but they have to sit down at the negotiating table and reach a political agreement,” he said. The Khaama Press, March 8, 2019.
HUJI-B now raising funds through robbery, says Detectives of Dhaka Police: Detective Branch of Dhaka Metropolitan Police (DMP), on March 4, said militant outfit Harkat-ul-Jihad Bangladesh (HUJI-B) had been engaged in fund collection through robbery to reorganise itself and free a death row inmate either by ambushing a prison van or attacking a jail. As part of its plan, the outfit joined hands with a robbery gang more than one and a half years ago. It supplied arms to robbers and took 30 percent of looted money in return, said Abdul Baten, additional commissioner of the Detective Branch of DMP. The Daily Star, March 5, 2019.
22 terror training facilities including nine JeM camps active in Pakistan, says Indian official: As many as 22 terrorist training camps, including nine of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), are active in Pakistan, but no action is being taken against them, an unnamed senior Indian official said in New Delhi on March 7. Pakistan is a "global epicentre of terrorism and it needs to take verifiable and credible steps against terrorist organisations and terrorists", said the official. The Week, March 08, 2019.
UN rejects LeT ‘chief’ Hafiz Saeed’s plea for terror delisting: The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has refused to remove Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) co-founder and mastermind of the 26/11 Mumbai attack, Hafiz Saeed, from its list of terrorists. Saeed’s request to be delisted was vehemently opposed by India, as well as by the US, UK and France, which is now the Security Council chair. “As expected, despite all its talk about countering terror, Pakistan had not raised any objection to Saeed’s appeal to lift the ban,” said one unnamed official in New Delhi. The New Indian Express, March 8, 2019.
1,500 tribals attend Maoist meet in AOB region in Odisha: The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) held a meeting near the Bejingi forest region in the cut-off area of the Andhra Odisha Border (AOB) under the Chitrakonda Police Station limits in Malkangiri District of Odisha on March 8. More than 1,500 tribals from the neighbouring region reportedly attended the meet. While one source said Gajarla Ravi, secretary of the AOBSZC (Andhra Odisha Border Special Zonal Committee), addressed it, another said it was organised and addressed by the militia members but the cadres were present nearby. The Hindu, March 10, 2019.
Jamaat-e-Islami ban will curb separatism in Kashmir, says UMHA: “The ban on Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), Jammu and Kashmir is to ensure complete non-functioning of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) as it has been the brain behind the separatist group,” said an unnamed Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) official. The “sole” agenda of the Government of India’s ban on Jamaat-e-Islami is to curb separatism in Jammu and Kashmir as the organisation has been the “brain” behind the APHC which, the investigating agencies claim, has been ideologically supporting Pakistan-sponsored militancy, said sources in the UMHA. Greater Kashmir, March 5, 2019.
Maldives former President calls on Pakistan to combat against terrorism: Former President of Maldives Mohamed Nasheed, on March 4, stated that Pakistan needs to stand up against terrorism in order to establish peace across the southern Asia. In a tweet published on March 4, Nasheed said that peace in South Asia can only be achieved if Pakistan takes action against terror groups operating from their territory. Nasheed's statement comes at a time when the hostility between Pakistan and India has escalated due to an air-attack launched by India into Pakistan territory. The Maldives has called upon Pakistan and India to cease the attacks between both countries and revert to peace. Avas.mv, March 4, 2019.
‘External assistance not required in TJ process’, says Minister of Foreign Affairs Pradeep Kumar Gyawali: Minister of Foreign Affairs Pradeep Kumar on March 5 said the international community was confident about Nepal’s ability to take the transitional justice (TJ) process to its logical conclusion on its own. Gyawali also made it clear that the Government had not felt necessary any external assistance in concluding the home-grown and nationally-led TJ process. The Himalayan Times, March 6, 2019.
FATF adds three more conditions for Pakistan to comply with: Pakistan will have to demonstrate its compliance on 15 major conditions of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) till May 2019 in order to avoid falling into blacklist. In addition to these 15 major demands for the May-related deadline, the FATF in its last plenary meeting held in Paris also included three more steps for review in coming May/June meeting including (1) revising/updating Pakistan’s national risk assessment on terror financing, (2) improving FBR’s customs report on cash couriers to curb currency smuggling and (3) placing inter agency cooperation mechanism among law enforcing agencies at federal and provincial levels. So the FATF will gauge performance on total 18 points, including three above-mentioned, in the coming FATF meeting expected to be held in Colombo in June. The News, March 9, 2019.
Government takes over 182 seminaries as crackdown intensifies, says report: Federal Ministry of Interior, on March 7, announced that it had taken control of 182 religious schools and have placed 121 people in ‘preventive detention’ since the crackdown began last week. “Provincial governments have taken in their control management and administration of 182 religious seminaries (madaris),” the Ministry said in a statement. Daily Times, March 8, 2019.
Finance secretary warns of sanctions over FATF non-compliance: The Federal Secretary of the finance division, on March 5, warned that Pakistan might face economic sanctions over non-implementation of Financial Action Task Force (FATF) recommendations. Finance Secretary Arif Ahmed Khan said Pakistan had to take strict measures to implement the FATF recommendations. He said that the country had to proceed against the banned outfits in the light of FATF recommendations. He expressed apprehensions that Pakistan might face economic sanctions if the FATF recommendations were ignored and not implemented. Dawn, March 6, 2019.
Tamil parties honour female LTTE fighters on Women's Day in Sri Lanka: The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and Tamil National People's Front (TNPF), on March 8, honoured female Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) fighters and activists at events marking International Women's Day. In an event in Kilinochchi in Northern Province on March 8, local party members and supporters were joined by the TNA MP (Member of Parliament) S Sritharan in honouring ‘captain’ Angayarkanni, ‘second lieutenant’ Maalathy and the activist, Annai Poopathi. Tamil Guardian, March 8, 2019.
Sri Lanka Army returns nearly 20 more acres of land in Jaffna to owners: Sri Lanka Army released another 20 acres of land in Jaffna in Jaffna District of Northern Province, used by the Army for service requirements on March 4. The Army has released a total of 19.72 acres in Myliddy north and east inside the Palaly Army Cantonment and a portion adjoining it on March 4. A small portion (0.25 acres) of the released land in Myliddy belongs to the State while the remainder is owned by private owners. Colombo Page, March 5, 2019.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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