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India: Pakistan: Kartarpur Corridor: Twisted Calculus


South Asia Terrorism Portal

SECOND SIGHT

OCCASIONAL COMMENTARIES ON SECURITY & STRATEGY
Volume 1, No. 3, November 29, 2018
 
Data and assessments from SECOND SIGHT can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Terrorism Portal.



INDIA
PAKISTAN

       Print

Kartarpur Corridor: Twisted Calculus

And so, in quick succession, both India and Pakistan have endorsed the Kartarpur Corridor between Dera Baba Nanak Sahib on the Indian side, and Kartarpur Sahib on the Pakistan side (both shrines associated with the founder of the Sikh Faith, Guru Nanak), with high profile 'ground breaking ceremonies', and hyperbole rare even in the current environment of verbal political excess. Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India drew parallels with the fall of the Berlin wall, declaring, "Who thought the Berlin Wall would fall. May be, with the blessings of Guru Nanak Dev ji, Kartarpur corridor will not only be a corridor but can be a reason to bring people together." In a similar vein, Prime Minister Imran Khan of Pakistan, at the ground-breaking ceremony at Kartarpur Sahib, expressed the sentiment that, "If France and Germany who fought several wars can live in peace, why can't India and Pakistan?" A number of other statements are in the same vein of intemperance, including Indian Vice President M. Venkaiah Naidu's statement, "The corridor will become a symbol of love and peace between both countries."

At a time when the Indo-Pak relationship is scraping rock bottom, the realization of this long-pending project is surprising. Indeed, the timing of the decision is certainly remarkable, at least from an Indian strategic and security perspective. The decision comes in the wake of a succession of Khalistani terrorist attacks, as well as increasing and global efforts at Khalistani radicalization - all of which Indian officials trace back to elements of the Khalistani leadership sheltered by the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) in Pakistan, as well as radical elements in the Sikh Diaspora in the West, also supported by Pakistan. It is significant, moreover, that, in view of cross border terrorist violence, as well as escalating exchanges of fire between the Forces of the two countries - as well as brutal incidents of beheading of Indian Forces' personnel by Pakistani Army units - India's Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs had, as recently as in May 2017, ruled out the construction of the corridor till conditions on the ground were more 'conducive'.

There are no rational grounds, no dramatic shift in the security situation or the support of Pakistan's state agencies to terrorist formations targeting India, no 'conducive atmosphere', which could justify the abrupt fast forwarding of this project.

On the Indian side, it would appear, the proximity of the General Elections in 2019, and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party's electoral interests - its bid to woo the conservative Sikh voter in the State, which it recently lost along with its coalition partner, the Akali Dal - have forced this decision. In all other aspects, Prime Minister Modi's and the BJP's postures and statements have remained consistently hostile to Pakistan and to any reopening of the 'peace process'. Indeed, India's Minister of Foreign Affairs Sushma Swaraj was quick to emphasise, in the wake of the Kartarpur Corridor announcement, "The moment Pakistan stops terrorist activities in India, a dialogue can start. But a dialogue cannot start only with the Kartarpur corridor." Swaraj also disclosed that Prime Minister Modi would not attend the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit at Islamabad, something that Imran Khan and Pakistan were deeply invested in.

This position has sparked some righteous indignation in Pakistan. As one prominent headline expressed it, "India harps on terror mantra as Pakistan talks of peace." But the reality is, the Kartarpur Corridor represents an opportunity for further Pakistani mischief, and this was already visible in the presence of radical Sikh elements, prominently including Pakistan Sikh Gurudwara Prabandhak Committee (PSGPC) secretary general Gopal Singh Chawla, identified by Indian agencies as a militant Khalistani, at the 'ground breaking ceremony'. Chawla has also been photographed in meetings with Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, the head of the banned Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jamaat-ud-Da'awa. It is useful to recall, here, that the PSGPC was, at one time, headed by a former ISI chief, Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Javed Nasir.

Pakistan has long exploited the major Sikh shrines in its territory - including Kartarpur Sahib and Guru Nanak's birthplace, Nankana Sahib - for attempts to radicalize pilgrims. Indeed, in April 2018, when a jatha (group) of 1,800 pilgrims visited Pakistan, accompanying Indian officials and diplomats were forcibly separated from the group in explicit violation of bilateral protocols and the terms of the agreement facilitating the pilgrimage. India subsequently lodged a strong diplomatic protest, alleging that the pilgrimage had been used to raise the issue of Khalistan, and that the pilgrims were exposed to inflammatory statements and materials at various shrines they visited.

The sentiments articulated at the Kartarpur Corridor 'ground breaking ceremonies' are laudable, and the project itself is unimpeachable. But given the fractious relationship between India and Pakistan, it is a perverse calculus of electoral gain, on the one hand, and of augmenting disruptive potential on the other, that dominates the present decision.


Ajai Sahni
Publisher and Editor, Second Sight

 

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