Dialogue with the Hizb
|
Year |
Province |
Origin |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jly |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Total |
1996 |
Kashmir |
Foreign |
134 |
75 |
208 |
740 |
36 |
41 |
83 |
157 |
34 |
40 |
77 |
113 |
1738 |
|
|
Local |
43 |
32 |
283 |
128 |
76 |
35 |
421 |
358 |
118 |
113 |
121 |
127 |
1855 |
|
Jammu |
Foreign |
3 |
6 |
7 |
11 |
- |
1 |
- |
- |
2 |
3 |
6 |
- |
39 |
|
|
Local |
20 |
8 |
9 |
40 |
4 |
3 |
- |
2 |
3 |
5 |
3 |
- |
97 |
|
|
Total |
200 |
121 |
507 |
919 |
116 |
80 |
504 |
517 |
157 |
161 |
207 |
240 |
3729 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1997 |
Kashmir |
Foreign |
19 |
16 |
30 |
14 |
- |
222 |
128 |
267 |
68 |
8 |
14 |
1 |
787 |
|
|
Local |
52 |
9 |
138 |
171 |
11 |
140 |
99 |
139 |
20 |
12 |
13 |
3 |
807 |
|
Jammu |
Foreign |
10 |
7 |
3 |
- |
40 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
- |
- |
5 |
73 |
|
|
Local |
35 |
9 |
7 |
2 |
22 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
- |
3 |
86 |
|
|
Total |
116 |
41 |
178 |
187 |
73 |
367 |
230 |
409 |
92 |
21 |
27 |
12 |
1753 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1998 |
Kashmir |
Foreign |
- |
12 |
124 |
263 |
31 |
221 |
109 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
6 |
- |
826 |
|
|
Local |
20 |
6 |
65 |
119 |
73 |
80 |
30 |
50 |
30 |
18 |
4 |
30 |
525 |
|
Jammu |
Foreign |
43 |
34 |
13 |
32 |
45 |
33 |
36 |
33 |
30 |
76 |
49 |
7 |
431 |
|
|
Local |
35 |
21 |
23 |
42 |
30 |
58 |
87 |
69 |
99 |
4 |
59 |
18 |
545 |
|
|
Total |
98 |
73 |
225 |
456 |
179 |
392 |
262 |
172 |
179 |
118 |
118 |
55 |
2327 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1999 |
Kashmir |
Foreign |
- |
3 |
80 |
123 |
105 |
411 |
99 |
63 |
60 |
17 |
25 |
40 |
1026 |
|
|
Local |
7 |
50 |
44 |
96 |
122 |
89 |
93 |
75 |
81 |
32 |
38 |
22 |
749 |
|
Jammu |
Foreign |
13 |
14 |
32 |
26 |
40 |
63 |
101 |
18 |
91 |
69 |
65 |
37 |
569 |
|
|
Local |
12 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
21 |
22 |
66 |
35 |
48 |
27 |
58 |
34 |
359 |
|
|
Total |
32 |
78 |
167 |
259 |
288 |
585 |
359 |
191 |
280 |
145 |
186 |
133 |
2703 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 |
Kashmir |
Foreign |
- |
- |
- |
- |
20 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
20 |
|
|
Local |
44 |
- |
23 |
32 |
124 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
223 |
|
Jammu |
Foreign |
50 |
45 |
28 |
72 |
86 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
281 |
|
|
Local |
26 |
12 |
12 |
26 |
29 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
105 |
|
|
Total |
120 |
57 |
63 |
130 |
259 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
629 |
Source:
Compiled by the Author from MI, IB and State Intelligence sources
Table 2: Terrorism - related incidents, 1997 - 2000 May
Month |
Year |
Region |
Attacks on SFs |
SFs Killed |
Civilians Killed |
Terrorists Killed |
Terrorists Killed Per SF Killed |
Total Violent Incidents |
|
1997 |
Jammu |
206 |
63 |
152 |
218 |
3.46 |
473 |
|
|
Kashmir |
1177 |
160 |
732 |
1038 |
6.49 |
3005 |
|
|
Total |
1383 |
223 |
884 |
1256 |
5.63 |
3478 |
|
1998 |
Jammu |
379 |
100 |
341 |
367 |
3.67 |
817 |
|
|
Kashmir |
943 |
152 |
541 |
695 |
4.57 |
2147 |
|
|
Total |
1322 |
252 |
882 |
1062 |
4.21 |
2964 |
|
1999 |
Jammu |
475 |
147 |
311 |
512 |
3.48 |
997 |
|
|
Kashmir |
1120 |
294 |
586 |
743 |
2.53 |
2362 |
|
|
Total |
1595 |
441 |
897 |
1255 |
2.85 |
3359 |
Jan |
2000 |
Jammu |
38 |
5 |
15 |
34 |
6.80 |
78 |
|
|
Kashmir |
110 |
25 |
57 |
57 |
2.28 |
192 |
|
|
Total |
148 |
30 |
72 |
91 |
3.03 |
270 |
Feb |
2000 |
Jammu |
24 |
4 |
21 |
32 |
8.00 |
53 |
|
|
Kashmir |
87 |
35 |
57 |
39 |
1.11 |
175 |
|
|
Total |
111 |
39 |
78 |
71 |
1.82 |
228 |
Mar |
2000 |
Jammu |
35 |
8 |
13 |
43 |
5.38 |
73 |
|
|
Kashmir |
34 |
6 |
69 |
82 |
13.67 |
119 |
|
|
Total |
69 |
14 |
82 |
125 |
8.93 |
192 |
Apr |
2000 |
Jammu |
58 |
26 |
14 |
67 |
2.58 |
98 |
|
|
Kashmir |
70 |
13 |
53 |
57 |
4.38 |
165 |
|
|
Total |
128 |
39 |
67 |
124 |
3.18 |
263 |
May |
2000 |
Jammu |
62 |
10 |
20 |
100 |
10.00 |
90 |
|
|
Kashmir |
92 |
21 |
52 |
65 |
3.10 |
230 |
|
|
Total |
154 |
31 |
72 |
165 |
5.32 |
320 |
Source:
Compiled by the Author from MI, IB and State Intelligence sources
SFs= Security Forces
the Kargil conflict. Lieutenant General J.R. Mukherjee, as
Chief of Staff of the 15 Corps, who has replaced Lieutenant General
Kishan Pal as Corps Commander, has also, perhaps, helped matters,
for golf has come to be considerably less central to the Indian Armys
concerns since his arrival.
Sustained military pressure,
and the twin processes of ideological and political disintegration
within the Hizb, suggest some form of dialogue could emerge again.
Prophecies of doom notwithstanding, the Hizb has done little to revive
hostilities against the Indian state since the ceasefire collapsed.
Many attribute the terrible blast of August 10, which claimed a dozen
lives including that of Hindustan Times photographer Pradeep Bhatia,
to the Hizb. But there are reasons to believe that the organisation
was not, in fact, involved, and that the bulk of its cadre would support
further dialogue. The first claim of responsibility for the attack,
in fact, came from the LeT, and a representative of the organisation
described in detail the car used to carry out the attack, and the
mode of its acquisition. The Hizb subsequently took responsibility,
presumably under Pakistani pressure, while the LeT condemned the action.
It was the first time that the Lashkar had condemned such a terrorist
strike, reason in itself for suspicion about the bombs authorship.
[24]
Clearly, then, the dialogue
process has come at a time when Pakistan continues to be engaged in
a full-blown offensive in J&K, notwithstanding the supposed US
pressures placed on it to end terrorism. It will only allow a dialogue
process to succeed if the outcome of these negotiations will bring
about a resolution that can be advertised as a victory, albeit a qualified
one. No real attention has been paid in critical discourse in India
as to what such a deal may be, but its contours need to inform public
debate if potential disaster in J&K is to be averted.
Despite the contradictions raised
by the Hizbs efforts at beginning negotiations with the Centre
for a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir issue, and their disastrous
outcome, the questions that would arise during the course of any present
or future dialogue might prove more problematic even than the process
of setting it in play. What could the Hizb or Pakistan hope to gain
through eventual dialogue? And what could India offer them?
Much establishment debate on
J&K is premised on the assumption that US pressure will eventually
compel Pakistan to terminate its campaign in J&K. Those who, after
Pangloss, believe all that the US does in the region is for the best
would do well to read Ahmed Rashid's definitive book on Afghanistan,
which holds out more than a few lessons about just why far-right terrorism
exists in J&K.
[25]
Few officials can provide any real evidence in support of their optimism
about US initiatives, but the US growing economic interests
in India, and its need for a strategic ally against China, are frequently
proclaimed to be proof. The claim raises at least two
interesting problems. The first is whether US leverage over Pakistan
is, indeed, as significant as is widely assumed. Although the US supported
the Hizbs ceasefire, for example, it was unable to pressure
the Pakistan Government into ensuring the arrangement was sustained.
More important, it accepts US claims to be a benevolent peacemaker
in a troubled sub-continent at face value.
US officials themselves have
been more candid about just what their objectives are. In a recent
interview, Michael Sheehan, the co-ordinator for counter-terrorism
at the US State Department, made it clear that 'US interests', not
Indias problems, continued to shape its policy on South Asia.
Asked about the US Governments failure to declare Masood Azhars
Harkat-ul-Mujahideen [HuM] a terrorist organisation, Sheehan replied:
... weve asked the government
of Pakistan to make sure they have no links to that organisation.
They have assured us they do not. We have expressed concerns about
terrorists passing through Pakistan. And Pakistan, in the past, has
co-operated with us on seizing terrorists and sending them back to
justice to the US and other places. Their co-operation has been good
and has been well documented. On the other hand, we are concerned
about those people that pass through there. We are working with them
to make sure they can tighten down on that.
[26]
Had a US airliner been hijacked
to Havana, and the principal architect of the crime gone on to set
up a new terrorist organisation with offices in Baghdad, Sheehans
reactions would have doubtless been altogether different. What is
important is that the interview makes it clear that the US perceptions
of its 'real interests' conceive of continuing co-operation with Pakistan,
arguably to combat the far-right Islamic resurgence in the region.
Conservative West Asian states, for their part, have little or no
reason to seek an end to far-right terrorism in Pakistan, for it would
force them to engage with the welter of dissidents now busy with activities
at a safe distance from home. And Pakistan, most certainly, simply
cannot risk a turning inwards of the multiplicity of organisations
formed in the course of the US war against the Soviet Union
in Afghanistan. Quite clearly, moreover, the US has no immediate interest
in forcing a deal on J&K that would weaken the position of either
General Pervez Musharraf, or of any successor regime. Indeed, influential
US analysts believe concessions on J&K are in Indias own
interests. Last year, the Stimson Centres Michael Krepon argued
that Indias Kashmir policy has been predicated on the
passage of time theory, and limited to counter-insurgency operations...
The question that needs to be asked is whether or not this is working
in Indias favour, because as time passes, Pakistan is becoming
weaker.
[27]
What, then, does the US see
as a viable future dispensation in J&K? Although the one large
kite flying in the sky has no official endorsement, it is difficult
to miss just who is holding on to the string. On March 8, Chief Minister
Farooq Abdullah and a group of his top Cabinet colleagues held a closed-door
meeting with Farooq Kathwari, a United States-based secessionist leader.
The meeting, held at the Secretariat in Jammu, appears to be just
part of a larger US-sponsored covert dialogue on J&K. Indeed,
there is growing evidence that the BJP-led coalition government in
New Delhi is complicit in this dialogue, which could lead to a violent
communal sundering of the State.
[28]
Kathwari heads the Kashmir
Study Group [KSG], an influential New York think tank which has been
advocating the creation of an independent State carved out of the
Muslim-majority areas of J&K. The owner of Ethan Allen, an upmarket
furniture concern which includes the White House among its clients,
Kathwari's associates in the KSG have included influential Indian
establishment figures, notably former Foreign Secretary S.K. Singh
and retired Vice Admiral K.K. Nayyar. The furniture tycoon was earlier
blacklisted by successive Indian governments, on one occasion being
denied permission to visit a seriously ill relative. Shortly after
the second BJP-led coalition came to power in 1998, however, he was
quietly granted a visa.
Its still unclear at whose
initiative the visa was granted, but Kathwari arrived in New Delhi
in March 1999, carrying a series of proposals for the creation of
an independent Kashmiri State. On this first visit, Kathwari met what
one senior intelligence official describes as a who's who of
the BJP establishment. Kathwari also appears to have visited
Jammu and Srinagar, staying at the home of a top National Conference
politician. Public disclosure of Kathwari's proposals provoked a minor
storm. Nonetheless, Kathwari seemed encouraged enough to push ahead
with a new version of his blueprint, Kashmir:
A Way Forward. In September, 1999, the fresh version of the document
was finalised after, its preface records, receiving reactions from
"Government officials in India and Pakistan". The new document
was even more disturbing than the first. At least one KSG member,
the University of South Carolina's Robert Wirsing, refused even to
participate in the discussions. But the BJP, it now appears, wasn't
wholly unhappy with the direction Kathwari was proceeding in.
Kashmir: A Way Forward outlines five proposals for
the creation of either one or two new States, which would together
constitute what is described in somewhat opaque fashion as a sovereign
entity but one without an international personality:
The new entity would have its own secular, democratic
constitution, as well as its own citizenship, flag and a legislature
which would legislate on all matters other than defence and foreign
affairs. India and Pakistan would be responsible for the defence of
the Kashmiri entity, which would itself maintain police and gendarme
forces for internal law and order purposes. India and Pakistan would
be expected to work out financial arrangements for the Kashmiri entity,
which could include a currency of its own.
[29]
Four of the five possible Kashmiri
entities that the KSG discusses involve two separate States on either
side of the LoC, and territorial exchanges between India and Pakistan.
But the fifth Kashmiri entity outlined in Kashmir:
A Way Forward, of a single State on the Indian side of the Line
of Control, is the most interesting of the proposals. Premised on
the assumption that Pakistan would be unwilling to allow the creation
of a new entity on its side of the LoC - although there is no discussion
of what would happen if India were to be similarly disinclined - the
new State would come into being after a series of tehsil-level
referendums. All the districts of the Kashmir Valley, the districts
of Kargil and Doda, three northern tehsils
of Rajouri and one tehsil
of Udhampur, the KSG believes, would choose to join the new Kashmiri
State.
The KSG report attempts, somewhat
desperately, to prove that its assumptions are not based on communal
grounds. All these areas, it argues, are imbued
with Kashmiriyat, the cultural traditions of the Vale of Kashmir,
and / or interact extensively with Kashmiri-speaking people.
[30]
But this argument is patently spurious,
for several of these areas also interact similarly with peoples who
do not speak Kashmiri. There is no explanation, for example, of why
the linguistic, cultural and trade linkages the three northern Muslim-majority
tehsils of Rajouri district
with the three southern Hindu-majority tehsils are of any less significance than those they have with the
Kashmir region. Nor is it made clear what linguistic affiliation the
tehsils of Karnah and Uri in Kashmir, where
just 3.2% and 31% of the population were recorded as Kashmiri-speakers
in the 1981 census, the last carried out in the State, might have
with the Valley. Similarly, while Ramban and Bhaderwah tehsils
in Doda are not Kashmiri-speaking and principally trade with Jammu,
the KSG proposals make the a
priori assumption that they would vote to join the new State.
Indeed, these tehsils have recorded some of the highest
voter turnouts in successive elections since 1996, suggesting their
residents have little sympathy for the Kashmir Valley-centred secessionist
politics.
The National Conferences
own proposals for J&Ks future have striking similarities
with those the KSG has floated. The controversial report of the Regional
Autonomy Committee [RAC], tabled in the J&K Assembly last year,
and now in the process of being implemented, bears striking similarities
with the KSG proposals.
[31]
Muslim-majority Rajouri and Poonch are scheduled
to be cut away from the Jammu region as a whole, and recast as a new
Pir Panjal Province. The single districts of Buddhist-majority Leh
and Muslim-majority Leh, too, will be sundered from each other and
become new provinces. In some
cases, the RAC Report and the KSG proposals mirror each other down
to the smallest detail. For example, Kashmir:
A Way Forward refers to the inclusion of a Gool-Gulabgarh tehsil
in the new state. There is, in fact, no such tehsil. Gool and Gulabgarh
were parts of the tehsil
of Mahore, the sole Muslim-majority tehsil
of Udhampur district, until 1999. Gool subsequently became a separate
tehsil. But the proposal for Mahore's sundering
from Udhampur and inclusion in the Chenab province was first made
in the RAC Report. According to the RAC plan, as in the KSG proposals,
Mahore would form part of the Chenab province, while Udhampur would
be incorporated in the Hindu-majority Jammu province.
As significant, Abdullahs
maximalist demands for autonomy for J&K dovetail with the KSG's
formulation of a quasi-sovereign State.
The report of the State Autonomy Commission [SAC], adopted
by the J&K Legislative Assembly earlier this year, would leave
New Delhi with no powers other than the management of defence, external
affairs and communications. Fundamental rights in the Union Constitution,
for example, would no longer apply to J&K if the SAC has its way.
They would have to be substituted by a separate chapter on fundamental
rights in the J&K Constitution, which now contains only directive
principles. The Supreme Courts and the national Election Commission's
jurisdiction in J&K would also end, and the State Election Commission
would conduct polls in the State.
[32]
While the National Conferences demands
for greater autonomy arent in themselves disturbing, the context
in which they have been made and their character most certainly is.
The US enthusiastic endorsement of the autonomy report gives
even more reason to believe it sees some variant of the KSG plan as
the eventual solution to the Kashmir problem.
Secessionist leaders have been
offering to resume dialogue with the Union Government, although the
terms they have set forward have been somewhat confused. The Hizbs
Yusuf Shah, for example, announced on August 19, 2000, that his organisation
was willing to reopen talks if India agreed that Kashmir was a disputed
territory, and if Pakistan was included in the dialogue.
[33]
Two days earlier, the Hizbs own chosen interlocuter, Qureishi, had
suggested even softer terms, saying he was hopeful the terrorist group
would allow Pakistan to be involved at a later stage. This, in turn,
provoked violent criticism from Yusuf Shah, who somewhat peculiarly
warned India that Kargil was not out of our reach.
[34]
The APHC chairman, Ghani Bhat, for his part, has proposed setting up separate
teams to negotiate with India and Pakistan to resolve the imbroglio.
[35]
Unfortunately, Yusuf Shah himself appears to have little faith in the APHCs
credentials. Issuing statements and shedding crocodile tears
and visiting the families of martyrs will not solve the Kashmir problem,
one Hizb statement proclaimed:
If our elders [the APHC leaders] believe that only an armed
struggle will liberate Kashmir from the occupation and an honourable
solution is possible through militancy, then they should come in the
forefront and command the struggle.
If not, they should at least send their wards to join militancy.
[36]
This disputation among secessionist
formations, it is probable, will eventually resolve itself. The question
that recurs is: what form will future dialogue take? In conclusion,
this paper argues that the most disturbing outcome of the breakdown
of talks with the Hizb is that they will have lent weight to the proposals
outlined by the KSG, and tacitly endorsed by several political figures
in the State. In a larger sense, the Hizb dialogue, past and possibly
future, marks a shift to the Right of political discourse on J&K,
a process which has been accelerating since the National Democratic
Alliance government came to power.
It is evident that further
dialogue will, most certainly, be impossible unless the obstacles
the Indian Government is willing to cross, so to speak, are raised
higher. At the outset, Indian negotiators will have to be prepared
to concede to the APHC demands articulated earlier this summer, or
to the Hizb's. Although Chief Minister Abdullah has been bitterly
criticising plans to sunder Jammu and Ladakh from Kashmir, he has
said little on plans his own Government authored to bring about precisely
the same outcome. And, as J&K Law Minister P.L. Handoo recently
pointed out, Prime Minister Vajpayee has, in turn, studiously refused
to rule out a partition of the State, which would then enable the
grant of quasi-independence to Kashmir. That any such partition would
unleash a scale of violence that could match the carnage of Indias
Partition in 1947 has, by and large, not deterred these flights of
fancy in any noticeable measure.
There is little doubt that
dialogue with the Hizb could lead the communal falling apart of J&K
to gather momentum. Events on the ground, for at least the last two
years, have certainly been engineered to bring about this kind of
calamity. Among the latest examples were the incidents of July 12,
when the Leh province saw its first communal killings. Three Buddhist
monks were shot dead by the LeT at the Rangdum Gompa in Padam, on
the Zanskar heights. The murders were preceded by a series of Buddhist-chauvinist
mobilisations in Leh, protesting the J&K Assemblys demand
for greater autonomy. One leading figure in the protests, Ladakh Buddhist
Association (LBA) Vice-President Tsonam Gombu, provoked protests by
Muslims after he described the Quran as just another book, not
one descended from the skies. Although Gombu apologised for
his statement, and was later arrested, the damage had been done. In
political terms, both the Buddhist anti-autonomy agitation and the
monks killings worked to deepen the fissures between Ladakh
and Kargil and between Ladakh and Kashmir.
[37]
Such a sundering, should it come into being, would be a key element in
the many schemes for partition of the State set afloat over the last
two years.
More problems have also become
evident in Jammu in the wake of the August 1 massacres. Curfew had
to be imposed in several areas, and only firm police action prevented
collective reprisals against Muslims after two cows heads were
discovered in Ranbir Singh Pura.
[38]
These events, read in the context of the March massacre of Sikhs at Chattisinghpora,
suggest that J&K is being goaded into a calamitous, full-blown
religious war. Political figures on the Hindu Right have long demanded
the separation of the area from the Kashmir valley, a demand that
has gathered momentum in the wake of the J&K Assemblys autonomy
resolution. Dogra royal family patriarch Karan Singh, Jammu BJP leader
Ramesh Gupta, and Minister of State for Civil Aviation Chaman Lal
Gupta, are among the plethora of leaders in the Jammu region who believe
J&Ks unity is a historical accident which now needs to be
repaired.
As in the case of the Ladakh
Buddhists agitation, the demand for the sundering of Jammu from
the Kashmir Valley works to Pakistans advantage. Indeed, in
the wake of the Lahore bus crossing of 1999, the then-Pakistani Foreign
Minister, Sartaj Aziz, had called for a district-wise referendum in
J&K, a sharp but little noticed departure from Pakistans
historic position.
[39]
Journalist Talaat Hussain, writing in The Nation, reported that Niaz Naik and R.K. Mishra, the back-channel
negotiators during the Kargil war, had discussed what he described
as the Chenab plan, a term referring to the partition
of the State with the Muslim-majority areas north of the Chenab river
going to Pakistan, or forming a quasi-independent State.
[40]
It is clear neither Jammu nor Ladakh
would accept a political dispensation in J&K led by the Hizb,
or its political partners. Both massacres and the dialogue process,
thus, could help bring about the sundering of J&K on communal
lines, since it would be impossible to contain communal demands in
Jammu and Ladakh should an overtly communal regime secure power in
Srinagar, a probable outcome of the dialogue with the Hizb. Most disturbing
of all, as the anti-Muslim pogrom that followed the Pahalgam massacre
makes clear, any communal conflagration in J&K could have all-India
consequences.
[41]
Little thought appears to have gone
into how these problems will be addressed, let alone resolved.
Communal division, then, is
the first major risk that dialogue with the Hizb holds out. There
is a second, and even deeper, problem that the dialogue process poses
for political life within Kashmir itself. For all its failings, Chief
Minister Farooq Abdullahs regime is at least democratic, and
ostensibly committed to secularism. The Hizb and its political affiliates
are, on the other hand, avowedly reactionary. The organisation has,
among other things, been associated with attacks on womens rights
since its inception, notably through threats against those who exercise
their right to an abortion, or adopt planned-parenthood methods. Women
who chose western clothing have at other points been targeted, while
the Hizb has most recently been at the forefront of forcibly terminating
local transmission of cable television channels it believes to be
anti-Islamic. Should the Hizb come to exercise power, through whatever
medium and in whatever form, resistance to its rabidly communal and
chauvinist agenda would be difficult, if not impossible. What the
Jamaat has failed to achieve through elections would have been brought
into being through armed struggle. G.M. Bhats contention that
continued armed struggle was now an obstacle in the way of achieving
the Jamaats core objectives needs to be understood in this context.
Finally, and as important,
the very fact that the Hizb and APHC are being considered dialogue
partners holds out its own dangers, especially in a context where
an elected Government holds out its own demands for 'autonomy'. Whatever
the problems contained within the State Autonomy Report may be, and
there are several, the Union Governments unwillingness to engage
in serious debate on autonomy is incomprehensible. There is little
doubt that a serious and sustained dialogue on autonomy with political
actors would have enabled the generation of real political processes
within J&K. Although New Delhi has suggested that a dialogue on
autonomy may yet come into being, it is unclear whether it would still
have any real mass legitimacy. Whether one likes it or not, endorsement
of dialogue with the Hizb means that the autonomy issue is being marginalised,
or at least made subject to the endorsement of armed groups. This,
in turn, means democracy and democratic processes are discredited.
Politicians, in this framework, are meant only to deal with roads
and sewers, while those with guns are legitimised as the ultimate
arbiters of J&Ks fate. If, as at least some in the Ministry
of Home Affairs believe, the Hizb and APHC will eventually accept
some variant on the autonomy proposals, the fact remains that, politically,
its realisation will still mean a victory for terrorism, not politicians.
Abdullah is perhaps the one State-level politician delighted at the
demise of the dialogue process - and with good reason, for any deal
with the Hizb would have to be predicated on the termination of National
Conference rule in the state.
The dialogue process initiated
by New Delhi has already served to alienate J&Ks principal
democratic party. The National Conference has responded by aggressively
encroaching on the secessionist constituency, notably by destabilising
the security apparatus. It is surely not coincidence that Abdullahs
venomous attacks on the J&K Polices SOG, which has, without
dispute and man-for-man been the most successful counter-terrorist
organisation in the State, followed the initiation of the Union Government
back-channel dialogue with the APHC. Abdullah responded by suspending
Anantnag Superintendent of Police Farooq Khan, one of the founders
of the SOG, and several junior officers, for alleged atrocities in
the wake of the Chattisinghpora killings. The actual evidence cited
to justify the suspensions was more than a little thin, but the political
significance of the suspensions are unmistakable.
[42]
By attacking the SOG, which like
all effective counter-terrorist forces has acquired an overblown notoriety,
Abdullah was seeking to regain political space conceded earlier to
the APHC. Sadly, scurrilous attacks on the SOG have since become the
stuff of received wisdom. One particularly silly example featured
recently in the Times of India, in the form of the assertion
that the SOG is 'mostly' made up of surrendered terrorists. The smear
went unchallenged, although the SOG is, in fact, almost entirely made
up of regular police personnel and, unlike the Army which pays the
salaries of two major groups of surrendered terrorists, employs almost
no Special Police Officers.
[43]
To those familiar with the
story of terrorism in Punjab, there will be depressing familiarity
to the processes through which the space available for democratic
discourse is being whittled away, and replaced by dialogue with the
most extreme, far-Right elements on the political terrain. Although,
as liberal commentators never tire of reminding us, Kashmir is not
Punjab, it is undoubtedly worth remembering the fate of the then Union
Government's flirtations with Simranjit Singh Mann, and the abortive
covert dialogue with G.S. Manochahal. In the current context, the
dialogue is also an alarming sign of what might best be described
as the privatisation of policy, the increasing influence of non-governmental
groups, which have no democratic accountability and are often funded
through dubious means, in shaping and executing state objectives.
Seema Mustafa has pointed to the role of two foreign-funded organisations,
the Sarvodaya Organisation for Mutual Understanding and the India-Pakistan
Forum for Peace and Democracy, in the TrackII diplomacy surrounding
dialogue with the Hizb.
[44]
The head of the India-Pakistan Forum, Tapan Bose, was a key participant
in one of the most successful campaigns of slander directed at the
Punjab Police, the concocted story that tens of thousands of victims
of police atrocities had been surreptitiously cremated in the border
districts.
It isnt as if peace shouldnt
be given a chance. A dialogue initiated by the Indian Government is
preferable to a settlement imposed at financial or diplomatic gunpoint
by the US. But the real danger lies in the prospect that New Delhi
might, as it were, lose control of the string of the kite it is seeking
to fly. Without a clear set of negotiation objectives, and a clear
ideological framework for what it seeks in J&K, the forces that
the National Democratic Alliance Government has unleashed in the State
could soon become unmanageable.
There is a final issue that
few in New Delhi appear any longer to ponder, or even fleetingly consider.
If the US will not, or cannot, act to ensure that Pakistan terminates
its war in J&K, what might Indias options be? Even if the
Hizb does accept a deal, and assumes power, will violence come to
an end? These problems are certain to acquire centre-stage when dialogue
resumes, for Pakistan will simply refuse to endorse an arrangement
where it cannot claim to have secured a victory, however limited,
in Kashmir. The answer, to anyone who has followed Indias troubled
engagement with Pakistan from the early 1980s, should be self-evident.
After the Pokhran II nuclear tests, which conferred a rough military
parity on Pakistan, Indias traditional military threat of massed
tanks sweeping across Sindh has become redundant. No real effort has
been made to raise Pakistans costs by developing a credible,
covert offensive capability either. That failure could completely
undermine the gains made through Indias counter-terrorist battles
over the last decade.
* Praveen Swami is Chief of Bureau, Mumbai, for Frontline, Chennai, magazine and has extensively reported on terrorism in Punjab and J&K.
[1] Pak Sabotaged Peace Process: Advani, Tribune, Chandigarh, August 10, 2000.
[2] Dont Close Doors for Talks: Azad, Tribune, August 14, 2000.
[3] Praful Bidwai, To give peace a chance, Frontline, Chennai, September 1, 2000.
[4] Hizbul Declares Unilateral Ceasefire For Three Months, Asian Age, New Delhi, July 24, 1997.
[5] Ibid.
[6] Jammu & Kashmir Police Criminal Investigation Department, Fortnightly Digest of Important Intercepts, second fortnight, July 2000, Srinagar.
[7] Hizbul expelled from jehad council, Tribune, July 27, 2000.
[8] 8 militants killed, blasts in Srinagar, Tribune, July 27, 2000.
[9] Ceasefire decision hasty: APHC, Tribune, July 28, 2000.
[10] In less than 12 hours of well co-ordinated carnage at six different locations, more than a hundred persons - including Hindu pilgrims on the Amarnath Yatra and Bihari labourers - were killed. See, 100 killed in Kashmir's night of terror, Times of India, New Delhi, August 3, 2000.
[11] Prof. Bhat is APHC Chairman, Tribune, July 21, 2000.
[12] Praveen Swami, Terror unlimited, Frontline, September 1, 2000.
[13] Praveen Swami, A summer of hope in Kashmir, Frontline: May 21, 1999.
[14] We are not militants, were targets: J&K Jamaat, Asian Age, November 14, 1998.
[15] Ibid.
[16] Cited in Praveen Swami, Friction in the Jamaat-e-Islami, Frontline, December 18, 1998.
[17] Ibid.
[18] Ibid.
[19] Talks can start with groups: Bhat, Tribune, July 10, 2000.
[20] Hizb, villagers attack Lashkar hideout, Hindu, Chennai, August17, 2000.
[21] No word so far from Hizbul, says chief negotiator, Sunday Times, Mumbai, August 20, 2000.
[22] Ultras Hindu identity shocks police, Tribune, August 11, 2000.
[23] This and subsequent data derived from Criminal Investigation Department, Jammu & Kashmir Police, Fortnightly Review of Militant Violence, second fortnight, June 2000, first fortnight, June 2000, first fortnight, May 2000, and from other sources.
[24] Praveen Swami, Terror unlimited, op. cit.
[25] Rashid Ahmed, Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia, New Haven:Yale University Press, 2000.
[26] Sumanta Chatterjee, Were reviewing if Lashkar can be named a foreign terrorist entity, Outlook, New Delhi, August 21, 2000.
[27] Interview in Indian Express, New Delhi, November 29, 1999.
[28] Praveen Swami, A divisive agenda, Frontline, April 14, 2000.
[29] Kashmir Study Group, Kashmir: A Way Forward, Livingston: New York, December 1, 1998, page 3.
[30] Ibid., page 14
[31] Jammu & Kashmir Legislative Assembly, Regional Autonomy Committee Report, Jammu, April 13, 1999.
[32] Ibid.
[33] Salahuddin sets fresh terms for resuming talks, Times of India, August 20, 2000.
[34] B. Muralidhar Reddy, Hizb alleges viscious campaign by India, Hindu, August 19, 2000.
[35] Hurriyat chief offers new formula for Kashmir, Hindu, August 19, 2000.
[36] Nazir Masoodi, Pick up the guns if you dont want talks: Hizbul to Hurriyat, Indian Express, August 13, 2000.
[37] Curfew in Leh, Tribune, July 14, 2000
[38] Curfew in RS Pora, Tribune, August 6, 2000.
[39] Cited in Aijaz Ahmed, Mediation by any other name, Frontline, July 30, 1999.
[40] Cited in, Praveen Swami, Partition plans?, Frontline, October 22, 1999.
[41] Gujarat bandh turns violent, one killed, Tribune, August 4, 2000.
[42] Praveen Swami, Outrage in Anantnag, Frontline, April 28, 2000.
[43] Siddharth Varadharajan, Politicians advocate hot pursuit, army says no thanks, Times of India, August 18, 2000.
[44] Seema Mustafa, NGOs fund peace-loving visit to Pakistan, Asian Age, August 6, 2000.
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