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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 1, No. 27, January 20, 2003
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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The Northeast:
Tackling a Rebellion, Quelling a Revolt
Wasbir Hussain
Associate Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management, New
Delhi; Consulting Editor, The Sentinel, Guwahati
New Delhi
has, once again, landed itself in an unenviable position.
While forging ahead in its efforts to tackle the 55-year-old
Naga rebellion, it is confronted with a revolt in other
States in the Northeast, and particularly in Manipur. The
fresh uprising by the majority Meiteis in Manipur, and the
as yet feeble voice of protest in neighbouring Assam and
Arunachal Pradesh, has been triggered off by fears of the
Indian Government slashing off Naga inhabited areas in these
States and merging them into the existing State of Nagaland
as part of a possible deal with the Isak-Muivah faction
of the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (NSCN-IM).
On the night of January 16, 2003, thousands of Meiteis carrying
flaming bamboo torches and shouting slogans took to the
streets in a menacing demonstration across the Manipur Valley,
declaring that they would launch an 'independence movement'
if New Delhi decided to dismember their State as part of
any 'deal' to resolve the Naga conflict. Police and paramilitary
troopers, who were deployed in strength, fired rubber bullets
and lobbed tear gas to prevent the mob from breaking barricades
and descending on several high-security areas like the Governor's
House, the Chief Minister's secretariat and other important
government buildings. At least 20 of the protestors, who
had come out en masse into the streets at the call of the
United Committee of Manipur, an apex group of political,
social and student organizations, were injured in the ensuing
mêlée. The authorities were forced to clamp an indefinite
night curfew in Imphal, the State capital, and in other
areas in the Manipur Valley, to prevent the situation from
going out of hand.
The current buildup is reminiscent of the prelude to the
mob violence in Imphal in June 2001, when 18 protestors
were killed in police firing. On that occasion, the mob
had burnt down the State legislature building and several
other government offices after the federal authorities decided
to extend the ceasefire between the NSCN-IM and the Government
to areas outside Nagaland. Previously, the ceasefire extended
only to Nagaland, where it had been in force ever since
the truce came into effect on August 1, 1997. New Delhi
subsequently succumbed to the pressure from the Manipuris
- who feared that the extension of the truce outside Nagaland
could be the first step before parts of their territory
was ceded to the Nagas. The extension of ceasefire to territories
outside Nagaland was, consequently, revoked, and the truce
continues to apply only to the jurisdiction of the State
of Nagaland.
The latest burst of protest in Manipur was triggered off
by the categorical statement of the visiting NSCN-IM leaders,
Chairman Isak Chishi Swu and General Secretary Thuingaleng
Muivah, that their group's demand for a 'Greater Nagaland'
cannot be compromised on. They said that the Nagas had been
only claiming land of their 'natural habitation.' Muivah,
in fact, went a step further when he added: "I live in Ukhrul
(a Naga-dominated district town in Manipur), I was born
there, my forefathers were born and lived there. This land
belongs to us. We are not living in the land of Meiteis."
Statements such as these convinced the Meiteis, and sections
in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, that the NSCN-IM was still
bent on integrating the Naga inhabited areas in the region
into a single politico-administrative unit, to fulfill their
dream of a 'Greater Nagaland.'
The revolt in Manipur is not confined to mainstream groups.
The Manipur People's Liberation Front (MPLF)-an umbrella
group of three of the State's most potent Meitei insurgent
groups, the United National Liberation Front (UNLF),
the People's Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK)
and the Revolutionary People's Front (RPF) - has declared
that it will 'not remain a silent spectator' and would use
its might to thwart any move to redraw Manipur's map as
a means to solve the Naga conflict. Last fortnight, the
MPLF engaged the paramilitary Border Security Force (BSF)
in a massive 60-hour gun battle on the border with Myanmar
that led to the death of two BSF men, including an Assistant
Commandant.
Within the prevailing context of suspicion, fear and apprehension
in various States and communities in the Northeast, New
Delhi could have done a great deal to clear the air, but
instead chose to do nothing, encouraging the voice of dissent
to grow till it assumed threatening proportions. If this
silence is a position that the Indian Government has deliberately
chosen to take in so far as the content of its talks with
the NSCN-IM is concerned, disastrous consequences are likely
to follow. There has been no official briefing to the media
on the nature or progress of the talks between the visiting
NSCN-IM leaders and the Indian leadership, including Prime
Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Deputy Prime Minister
Lal Krishna Advani. The only briefings that came about were
by the NSCN-IM leaders, who, of course, lauded the 'sincerity'
of the Indian leaders, reiterating that the talks were moving
in a 'positive' direction. If anything, this one sided flow
of ambiguous information could only further inflame the
fears of those who feel they may be the losers in any 'deal'
the Government chooses to strike with the NSCN-IM. It is
this lack of transparency on New Delhi's part that has made
matters murky - precisely what happened in 2001, when vociferous
protests gripped Manipur, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. Things
had gone out of hand at that time, mainly because the Indian
Government negotiators had entered into a secret deal with
the NSCN-IM leadership in Amsterdam over the truce extension,
and no attempt had been made to take different shades of
opinion in the Northeast into consideration, or to take
other parties in the conflict into confidence, before announcing
the extension of the ceasefire. The result was that, eventually,
New Delhi had to buckle under pressure and reverse its decision.
The current rounds of talks with NSCN-IM leaders are also
mired in secrecy, and was not preceded by any effort or
exercise to initiate a process of consultation with political
and other groups in States such as Manipur, Assam or Arunachal
Pradesh, whose interests and concerns are integrally linked
to, and threatened by, many of the demands raised by the
NSCN-IM. It is, of course, not clear whether the current
revolt in Manipur could have been prevented. But tensions
could certainly have been contained if New Delhi had been
in a antecedent process of dialogue with Meitei leaders,
and had sought to instill some confidence among them that
their interests would not be sacrificed in arriving at a
'solution' to the Naga problem. In the atmosphere of secrecy
in which the current talks are being held, the rumour mills
in the Northeast are feeding fears that New Delhi's silence
implies that 'Greater Nagaland' is actually the compromise
formula that is being discussed, and that the possibility
of this outcome is what has tempted the NSCN-IM leaders
to accept Indian travel documents and come to New Delhi.
There is no doubt that the NSCN-IM leaders' decision to
come to New Delhi for talks is itself a breakthrough of
sorts. Besides, there is a dominant mood for peace among
the Nagas themselves, and the untiring efforts of the Church
and other front-ranking non-governmental and political groups
in Nagaland to end the conflict have now brought about a
deep yearning for an end to India's longest insurgency.
It is, however, unwise and counter-productive to try and
end one conflict, only to simultaneously open up several
new fronts. The revolt in Manipur aside, voices of dissent
are emerging from among the Nagas themselves. The Naga National
Council (NNC) - the premier Naga nationalist group that
took shape under the legendary Angami Zapu Phizo before
India attained independence from the British - has opposed
the ongoing peace talks between the NSCN-IM and the Indian
Government. "The NSCN-IM is only a faction and thus does
not constitute a properly mandated organization which represent
the views of the whole Naga populace," NNC president I.
Panger Walling and general secretary Vizosielhou Nagi said
in a statement last week. This is exactly the same argument
put forward by the other NSCN faction headed by S.S. Khaplang
(NSCN-K).
The NSCN-IM leaders, moreover, have described Nagaland's
Congress party Chief Minister S.C. Jamir as a 'roadblock'
to the peace process. Jamir may not have the best of regard
for the NSCN-IM or its leaders, but his repeated assertion
that a piecemeal solution to the Naga problem cannot bring
about lasting peace, and that all the Naga rebel factions
must be involved with the peace process, is not at all an
unsound position to take. That, in fact, is the reality.
And this reality only shows that the road to peace in the
Naga areas in India's Northeast is long and thorny, with
no end immediately in sight.
Maoist Violence
Amidst Political Confusion
Guest Writer: Dr.
Lok Raj Baral
Executive Chairman, Nepal Centre for Contemporary Studies
(NCCS), Kathmandu
Nepal is
no longer the favourite tourist destination of South Asia.
Violence is widespread, and human rights violations by the
Communist Party of Nepal - Maoist (CPN-M or Maoists)
in its 'people's war', and by the state, are regularly reported
in the Press. Despite frequent protests against such incidents
by human rights groups in Nepal, neither combatant party
appears to listen to them. In just the past month, some
1,000 school children have been kidnapped, including 250
recently abducted in the Jajarkot district of in the Western
hills. These kidnappings have added a greater complexity
to the nature, motives and strategy of the Maoist war. Indiscriminate
kidnappings and murders of members of political parties
have also become common, though they are not uniform across
the country, with the Maoists adopting different tactics
in different places. By December 2002, more than 7,000 people
had lost their lives in this conflict, and the Amnesty International
report disclosed that a large number of innocent civilians
had lost their lives because the Maoists used them as human
shields during encounters with the security forces. However,
most of these fatalities are clubbed with the rebels, and
the Army and the Home Ministry records indicate that, of
the 4,366 killed in the current phase of escalated conflict,
till October 2002, 4,050 were 'Maoists'. This reflects an
enormous rise in violence, with some 2,700 people killed
over the preceding five years (1996-2001). Killings have
risen sharply since the Emergency was declared in November
2001, and it is certainly difficult, if not impossible,
to positively identify each person killed on the Maoist
side as a 'terrorist'.
The Maoists have also engaged in over 1,000 deliberate and
targeted killings till the middle of January 2003, describing
their victims as 'enemies of the revolution'. Taking hostages
for ransom, torture, long periods of detention, and kidnappings
for coercive recruitment into the Maoist Militia, have forced
young villagers to flee their homes, creating yet another
crisis of displacement among the people. Many of these have
trekked to India for jobs and safety; others, including
schoolteachers, are reported to have found refuge in district
headquarters and at Kathmandu. The flight of the labour
force from the villages and the swelling of population in
urban centres has already impacted adversely on the economy,
and placed enormous burdens on the existing and overstretched
infrastructure of urban society.
Within this context, the frequent kidnapping of school children
and other young villagers suggests that the Maoists are
having some difficulty with recruitment to their forces.
These kidnappings may also represent another tactic to attract
the attention of the government and of the international
community, and to bring pressure to bear on speeding up
the initiation of a process of negotiation. Through these
kidnappings and targeted killings, the Maoists also appear
to project their 'message' that supporters or informers
of the regime would be penalized. At least some of the kidnapping
victims who were released recently stated that they were
abducted for organizing political meetings without taking
permission from the Maoists. Some party activists also disclosed
that the Maoists took them into captivity because their
respective parties had supported the Emergency.
The Nepali government declared the Maoists a terrorist organization
following the declaration of a State of Emergency in November
2001. Both the Government of India and the US have categorized
the Maoists as terrorists and had promised to provide necessary
assistance to Nepal for its counter-insurgency campaign.
Nevertheless, despite the fact that both the US and India
were committed to providing assistance to Nepal to combat
Maoist violence, neither the international support, nor
the State of Emergency imposed to facilitate Army and security
forces' operations have produced any tangible results. The
Maoists have demonstrated their presence and operational
capabilities virtually throughout the country, and the levels
of violence that they have been able to sustain despite
the Emergency indicate that the campaign of attrition that
the state has launched against them is still to destroy
or significantly erode their operational capabilities. The
security forces, however, dismiss such an interpretation,
asserting that the Maoists' capacity to mobilize both manpower
and resources had been considerably affected in recent months.
The Maoists reaped major, if inadvertent, political advantage
as a result of King Gyanendra's decision to take executive
power into his own hand on October 4, 2002, after Sher Bahadur
Deuba, then Prime Minister of the 'interim government',
was removed on charges of 'incompetence' after he recommended
to the King that general elections be deferred for at least
thirteen months. All major political parties have opposed
King Gyanendra's transformation from a constitutional to
an executive monarch, though the King continues to ignore
them. The Maoists have also opposed the King's move, thus
making the protection and consolidation of the gains of
the restoration of democracy in 1990 a common political
agenda. Nevertheless, the situation is far more complex
than this simple dichotomy between monarchists and democrats
may suggest. Political parties operating within the system
do not support the Maoist demands - the abolition of the
monarchy; creation of a constituent assembly to frame a
new constitution; formation of an interim government; and
the holding of a round table conference to forge a solution
to the current crisis. The Maoists, moreover, have now expressed
their preference for the inclusion of the King in such a
round table conference, presumably because of the changed
power equations in the country.
The parliamentary parties, on the other hand, have divergent
approaches to the emergent constitutional process and the
continuing Maoist crisis. The Nepali Congress (NC) wants
to restore the dissolved parliament in order to set the
trend for future reforms and negotiation with the Maoists.
The Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Lenninist
(CPN-UML) wants the constitution of an all-party government
to steer the country out of the current constitutional crisis;
other communist groups in and outside parliament support
the NC's demand for the restoration of parliament first,
followed by the initiation of suitable reforms to be introduced
in the Constitution. The democratic political parties of
the country have come under substantial public criticism
for their failure to agree on a common agenda, but their
leaders argue that their divergent positions on these issues
do not contradict or undermine their collective petition
to the King, urging him to constitute an all-party government.
The split in the NC in 2002, and the growing intra-party
conflict that is manifesting itself within the CPN (UML)
have weakened these democratic formations considerably,
though the leaders of these parties do not fail to blame
the Palace for contriving divisions within their ranks.
The weakening of these parties and their gradual marginalization
from mainstream politics has also put the Maoists in difficult
situation: if they negotiate with the King, they would have
to compromise on some of their basic demands, such as the
abolition of the monarchy, the formation of a constituent
assembly, etc., and this would make them vulnerable to criticism
from other parties, and possibly within their own cadres.
It is apparent that the Maoists want to involve all political
forces in the country in any process of negotiated settlement
or reform, in order to secure their own acceptability and
legitimacy. Since no concrete efforts for negotiation have
been visible so far, all the three sides of the political
spectrum - the King, the systemic (democratic) parties and
the Maoists - have little clarity of vision regarding the
new roadmap of Nepali politics. And unless the row between
the King and other parties is settled, any fresh negotiations
with the Maoists seem to be a remote prospect. Tactically,
however, a wedge between the King and the constitutional
parties is in the Maoists' favour, because the probabilities
of the polarization of anti-monarchical forces would be
greatly enhanced if the King continues to ignore them.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major conflicts in
South Asia
January 13-19,
2003
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Civilian
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Security
Force Personnel
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Terrorist
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Total
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BANGLADESH
|
7
|
0
|
0
|
7
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INDIA
|
25
|
9
|
36
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70
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Assam
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0
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0
|
1
|
1
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Jammu &
Kashmir
|
14
|
7
|
34
|
55
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Left-wing
Extremism
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
4
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Meghalaya
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
Tripura
|
7
|
0
|
0
|
7
|
NEPAL
|
6
|
2
|
24
|
32
|
PAKISTAN
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
* Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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BANGLADESH
Seven persons
killed in bomb explosions at Tangail district: Seven persons
were killed and 15 others injured in a twin bomb explosion at
a remote village in Shakhipur, Tangail district, on January
17, 2003. The explosions occurred at a decade-old fair, locally
known as the Failya Paglar Mela, the largest in greater Mymensingh.
Meanwhile, Md. Nazmul Haque, a Special Superintendent of the
Criminal Investigation Department, was quoted as saying on January
19 that the explosives used in Tangail were similar to those
exploded in the cinema halls of Mymensingh on December 7, 2002,
in which 17 persons were killed and more than 300 injured. Independent
Bangladesh, January 20, 2003; Daily
Star, January 19, 2003.
Chittagong underworld in possession of 50,000 illegal arms:
A media report of January 18, 2003, claimed that approximately
50,000 illegal weapons - including several hundred sophisticated
weapons like the AK-47, AK-56, M-16 - besides a large stock
of ammunition, are in the possession of the underworld in Chittagong.
However, no official confirmation was available, as police do
not have specific and complete data on either licensed or illegal
weapons. Reportedly, these arms are to be used in the forthcoming
Union Parishad elections in Chittagong, Cox's Bazaar and three
hill districts. A large number of these arms were legally issued
but were not surrendered when the government issued a directive
to this effect in November 2002. Independent
Bangladesh, January 18, 2003.
INDIA
Blueprint
for Naga peace talks ready, says Deputy Premier
Advani: Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani
said in Guwahati, Assam, on January 13, 2003,
that the Union government was ready with a blueprint
to resolve the Naga issue. He, however, gave
no details. According to him, the visit of the
National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM)
leaders, Thuingaleng Muivah and Isak Chisi Swu,
to New Delhi and the subsequent talks was an
important development in this direction. He
said, "The Naga peace process has shifted its
focus from foreign soil to India. This itself
is a very positive sign". While Advani expressed
satisfaction over the progress of the peace
talks, he remained silent on the NSCN-IM's demand
for the integration of all Naga inhabited areas
into Nagalim (Greater Nagaland). Sentinel
Assam, January 14, 2003.
PAKISTAN
FBI raids
three seminaries in Islamabad for Al Qaeda, Taliban suspects:
Pakistani authorities accompanied by US Federal Bureau of Investigation
(FBI) agents raided at least three madrassas (seminaries) in
the federal capital of Islamabad looking for Al Qaeda and Taliban
suspects, seminary officials said on January 17, 2003. About
six Ulema (religious scholars) reportedly filed a complaint
with Islamabad police demanding that charges of unlawful interference
in the affairs of seminaries be brought against the FBI. "They
illegally entered our Madaris and are interfering in the affairs
of our religious institutions," said Abdul Rashid Ghazi, deputy
head of the Jamia Faridia, one of the seminaries. The other
two seminaries raided were Jamia Misbah-ul-Uloom and Masjid
Abdullah bin Masood. Jang,
January 17, 2003.
Australian Al Qaeda operative arrested in Karachi: An
Australian national suspected to have trained with the Al Qaeda
in Afghanistan was arrested at the international airport in
Karachi on January 4, and is being probed for links to the terrorist
network, official sources said on January 13, 2003. The suspect,
identified as Jack Thomas, is reported to have traveled to Pakistan
in 2001 to study Islam before heading to Afghanistan. An unnamed
security official was quoted as saying in Karachi that his arrest
was connected to the January 9 arrest of two Arab Al Qaeda suspects
during a pre-dawn raid on a private residence in Karachi. The
Australian is reportedly connected with an Islamist fundamentalist
group operating in Chechnya. Meanwhile, Australia's Attorney
General Darryl Williams confirmed to the media in Adelaide that
the suspect is believed to have trained with the Al Qaeda and
added that Australian authorities had been trying to trace him
for the past year. Daily
Times, January 14, 2003.
18 million illegal weapons in country, indicates Small Arms
Survey 2002: Officials at the Interior Ministry were quoted
as saying in a report in Dawn, a Pakistani daily, that according
to the Small Arms Survey, 2002, there were approximately 18
million illegally-held weapons in Pakistan compared to some
two million legally-licensed weapons. There are nine illegal
arms for every licensed weapon currently held by individuals
in the country. The report said, despite the official ban on
sale and purchase of non-licensed weapons, unauthorized arms
and ammunition remain in circulation and illegal arms trade
and gunrunning continued to flourish. The tribal town of Darra
Adamkhel near Peshawar, bordering Afghanistan, is reported to
be the largest manufacturer and supplier of low-cost arms in
the area. Dawn,
January 14, 2003.
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